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“ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND

CAPABILITIES IN
MONGOLIA”
Dr.Natsagdorj.L

2010, Ulaanbaatar
14 April 2010,
Mongolia is very vulnerable to climate change

Geographical location ( country is located central part of the


Asian continent, in the north of Subtropical high and narrow
natural transition zone),
Sensitive ecosystem (has few species diversity, very thin
humus soil, dominant unstable dynamic ecosystem),
Living style is as nomads (half of population is living in
countryside),
Economic framework (Traditional animal husbandry
(livestock) plays important role of Mongolian economy
Scientist have mentioned above feature as similar as low
coastal area in terms of climate change impact. /Natsagdorj,
Dagvadorj, Gomboluudev, 1999/
What is going on in Mongolia?
1. Intensity of climate change in Mongolia is 3 times higher than
global average, which is never been recorded in Mongolia last
2000 years
2. Significant feature of negative impact is consequent of present
nature-socio-economy of Mongolia due to environmental
degradation under anthropogenic and climate change forcing.
3. Desert-pasture degradation is intensifying due to climate dryness,
environmental degradation becomes reality as well as biodiversity
change
4. Many lake and river are drying and changing their river regime
due to surface evaporation (runoff, flood frequency and ice
phenomena)
5. Livestock is loosing its weight due to climate warming and
pasture degradation, has become a weak, and vulnerable
against drought-harsh winter is increasing. Therefore,
consequently, animal production is decreasing as well.
6. It is changing wild animal areal distribution due to change of their
environment.
7. It is melting high mountain glaciers and snow caps. Its impact
affected to increasing of water level in some biggest lake and river,
and might be, shrub and bush is growing high mountain region
8. Vegetable has stressed due to heat wave, hot days, consequently, its
yield is decreasing and their species are changing.
9. The observation and surveys show pastureland damages
density of voles and insects and they influence to plants as well
as area degradation and damages /grasshopper, some forest
insect, vole/
10. There is risk to outbreak cholera and even though new
disease related to warm condition and number of heart stroke
disease might be increased due to heat wave.
11. Frequency of forest and steppe fire are increasing due to
dryness.
12. Number of cow is decreasing and number of goat is
increasing. This situation seems be as market needs,
however, it is also associated with environment change
/biological adaptation mechanism/
13. Frequency and intensity of East Asian dust has increased
and become one of challenging issue on the region.
14. Pasture ecosystem dynamic is getting become unstable.
Because of precipitation amount is much variable in
vegetation growth period.
15. Frequency of drought and harsh winter are increasing.
Historical Data Records of Ratio of precipitation and Evaporation , Country
average of 1961-
1961-2008

Precipitation decreased by 33mm, but evaporation increased by


118mm.
Social Health
Climate change Impact of human heathy:
Number of natural disaster and its damage, victims are inceasing year to year
Disease due to insecurity of food due to climate change
Tick borne diseases
Heat stroke disease due to heat wave or hot consecutive days.

Байгалийн гамшгийн улмаас


Ñóóëãàëò õàëäâàðûí äàâòàãäàë /10
эндэгсэдийн тоо (ОБЕГ-ын
000 õ¿íä îíîãäîõ õàðüöàíãóé
мэдээгээр)
äàâòàëòààð/ (Т. Дэлгэрмаа)
Spring Wheat Harvesting Rate Fluctuation
17
y = 0.126x - 240.6 y = -0.172x + 354.0
15 R² = 0.122 R² = 0.171
13

11

3
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Wheat harvesting has decrease d by 15% in 2011-2030
Multiyear History of Drought Indices.
 T P
Si     ;
T  P
Multiyear Trend of the Average Dzud index of Mongolia (Szud)
Lands Vulnerable to both Drough land Heavy Snowfalls

From the picture above, it is seen that nearly 90% of the totalterritory is
vulnerable.
Relationship between livestock death and dzud
indexes
Comparison of the rates of perishing cattle stocks to all other
animal stocks

average damage 2.8% by 1961 to 1996, 6.0% by 1996 to


2004, 8.7% by 1996 by 2007
Cattle amount and percent of livestock

At 1996 year has 11.9%, at 2006 has 6.2%, at 2007 has 6.0% and
2008 has 5.8%
Adaptation to climate change
Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustments in
natural or human systems to actual or expected climatic
effects. This moderates harm and exploits beneficial
opportunities. Adaptation can be distinguished as
anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public
adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation.
Óóð àìüñãàëûí áîäèò áîëîí èðýýä¿éí ººð÷ëºëòºíä áàéãàëèéí áîëîí íèéãýì-
ýäèéí çàñãèéí ñèñòåìèéí á¿òýö, ïðîöåññ, ïðàêòèê ¿éë àæèëëàãààíû
äàñàí çîõèöîæ ÷àäàõ çýðýã áóþó ó÷èð÷ áîëçîøã¿é õîõèðëûã áàãàñãàõ,
èë¿¿ àÿòàé íºõöëèéã íü àëü áîëîõ á¿ðýí àøèãëàõ ÷àäâàð. Äàñàí
çîõèöîõóéã óðüä÷èëñàí áà ¿éë÷ëýëèéã õ¿ëýýí àâñàí, õóâèéí áà
íèéãìèéí, àÿíäàà áà òºëºâëºãººò ãýæ ÿëãàíà.
Adaptation option strategies to mitigation damage
(by N.Stern)
Óóð àìüñãàëûí ººð÷ëºëòòýé òýìöýõ àæëûã
ÿã ºíººäºð õèéå ãýõýä äýëõèéí äîòîîäûí íèéò
á¿òýýãäýõ¿¿íèé ºðòºãèéí 1% - òàé òýíöýõ
õýìæýýíèé çàðäàë ãàðàõààð áàéãàà áîë þó
÷ õèéõã¿é 10 áà ¿¿íýýñ èë¿¿ óäààí æèë
õ¿ëýýâýë ãàðàõ çàðäàë íü ¿¿íýýñ 20 äàõèí
ºñíº.

The issue is global one and so are the solutions to adapt to the change or mitigate the root
causes that brought about this climate change phenomenon. Approaches and effects differ
from country to country. Failure to respond adequately, individually and collectively, will
hamper efforts to reduce poverty, hunger and diseases and improve the access to basic
services in any particular country.
Mitigation Strategies to Climate change
in belonging the stages
(IPCC-1995)

1. Determine situation
2. Choose methods
3. Investigate of chosen method
4. Choose scenery
5. Assessment effect biophysics and social-economy
6. Assessment of adapt self skill 1, асуудлаа тодорхойлох,
7. Assessment of adaptation strategies 2, хэрэглэх аргазүйгээ сонгох,
3, сонгосон аргазүйгээ шалгах,
4, хувилбар (сценари буюу
төсөөлөл)-аа сонгох,
5, биофизикийн болон нийгэм-эдийн
засгийн үр дагаврыг үнэлэх,
6, өөрөө зохицох чадварыг үнэлэх,
7, дасан зохицохуйн стратеги
боловсруулан үнэлэх
Individual approaches for Vulnerability and Adaptation
assessment
Дасан зохицохуйн стратегийн дотор дараах 6 хэлбэр
байж болно.
• учирч болох хохирлыг урьдчилан зайлуулах,
• тодорхой хохирлыг хүлцэн зөвшөөрөх,
• учирч болох хохирлыг хувааж үүрүүлэх буюу томоохон бүс нутгийн
хэмжээнд нэг хэсэгт нь хохирол учирсан ч нөгөө хэсэгт нь ашигтай
тусахаар зохион байгуулах,
• үйл ажиллагааны хэлбэрээ өөрчлөх буюу ашиглалтын аргаа
өөрчлөх,
• шилжилт хийх буюу уур амьсгалын өөрчлөлт давагдашгүй болсон
газраас нүүн шилжих,
• нөхөн сэргээх буюу уур амьсгалын өөрчлөлтөд өртчихсөн
объектийг хуучин хэвэнд нь оруулах юм уу, эсвэл бага өртөхөөр
шинэчлэх
Практикт дасан зохицох арга хэмжээний үй олон хувилбар
байж болох бөгөөд ерөнхий байдлаар:
• эрхзүйн зохицуулалт хийх,
• санхүүгийн арга хэмжээнүүд,
• эдийн засгийн арга хэмжээнүүд,
• технологийн арга хэмжээнүүд,
• боловсрол, соён гэгээрүүлэх арга хэмжээнүүд,
• шинжилгээ судалгаа, боловсон хүчин бэлтгэх
гэж ангилж болно.
Principle for adaptation Strategy

1. Government strategy for implementation of the adaptation measures,


we must form national plan. Óëñ îðíû òîãтâîðòîé õºãæëèéí ¿çýë áàðèìòëàëä
íèéöñýí áàéõ.
2. Providing legal basis policy guidelines for more efficient pasture
land management and relationship Äàñàí çîõèöîõóéí áîäëîãî õýðýãæ¿¿ëýõ
õ¿ðýý, ýðýìáèéã òîãòîîõäîî óëñ îðíû ýäèéí çàñàã, íèéãìèéí õýðýãöýý, øààðäëàãûã
õàðãàëçàõ,
3. Determining objective and subjected problems to adaptation
strategy, how to mitigate and supply it. òîõèîëäîæ áîëîõ îáúåêòèâ,
ñóáúåêòèâ ñààä òîòãîðûã òîäîðõîéëîõ, ò¿¿íèéã ÿàæ äàâàí òóóëàõ áóþó
õýðõýí àðèëãàõ, 纺ëð¿¿ëýõýý òîãòîõ,
4. The options for informal education in the field of environmental
protection include use of mass media newspaper, TV, radio and
organization of conferences and workshops for specialist, the general
public and the press.
What is possible obstacle, when implement adaptation strategy?
-Îäîî áîëîí èðýýä¿éä ãàðàõ óóð àìüñãàëûí ººð÷ëºëòºíä ýìçýã
áàéäàë, ó÷èð÷ áîëîõ ýðñäëèéã á¿ðýí îéëãîõã¿é áàéãàà
áàéäàë,
- Lack of norm and standard, and encouragement of management,
- Current barrier of legal environment,
- Lack of getting modern technology to be adapted,
- Financial limitation,
- Human resource and capacity,
- Non comprehensive of socio, culture and finance situation
- Aggressive between shortage of planning practice and long time
benefits of investment,
- Personal behavior of people, who think current and future, and social
mind inertia. It might be main obstacle in our country.
Which sector has more vulnerability to climate change

Social-economic section:
• Nomadic livestock Natural component:
• pasture ecosystem,
• Agriculture
• biology diversity
• Social healthy • water recourse
• water supply • permafrost
• Infrastructure, community • forest recourse
facilities
• Energetic industry
• Transfer
Animal husbandry
One of the concerns providing sustainable development of the country is the reduction
and mitigation of negative impacts of climate change observed during the last 60 years
on pastoral livestock sector.
Study on summer and autumn has decrease except on gobi desert region Mongolian
sheep live weight. Specially among here forest step and step area has influence 10
percent by first 30 years, middle of the century has upper than 30 percent, last of
century will decrease 50 percent of individually.
Regulatory and utilization measures regarding to pastureland
Extend on naturalizing livestock бэлчээрт идээшлэх хугацааг уртасгах
Restoring degraded on pastureland use (improve biomass) бэлчээр сайжруулах
Multiplication forage Нэмэгдэл тэжээл өгөх
After calibrate if we taking normal livestock weight for enhancing pasture biomass 20
percent, further couldn’t take livestock weight middle and last of century has increased
pasture biomass 30%.
The adequate climate formulates normal living condition to
livestock with effective productivity and genetic ability. The
warm and cold temperature,, wind precipitation amount,
particularly, thick and density snow cover has become the
pasturage condition unfavorable for Mongolian livestock
during the entire year. 1.2-1.8 kg хүчит, 3,0-3,3 шүүслэг
Other suggestion: the middle of this centuries livestock will loose
18-19% of if continue this situation.
Last of century couldn’t to follow the traditional livestock breeding
principle as ecologically pure production. About this “Хамтын
бүтээл: Уур амьсгалын өөрчлөлтөд дасан зохицохуй)- УБ.,
2005, Эдмон хэвлэлийн газар” should show this paper.
Adaptation support to natural ecosystem
Mongolia is very sensitive to climate change due to its geographic
location, sensitive ecosystems and socioeconomic condition. As a
result of climatic variability and the impacts of climate change, in
the last forty years, Mongolian ecosystems have been notably
altered. Олон эзэнтэй
Protection in pasture monitoring ecosystem:
• Father to pasture management
• Land manage, use, propriety law
• Imposing charges on pastureland use and improving irrigation
system
• Emerging brand new breeds of plants persisten to droughts and
pests.
• Establishing monitoring network of pastureland evaluation,
condition and classification.
Adaption to arable farming \Agriculture\
Climate change impact will cause the noticeable reduction in
the crop yield of the central region. So adaptation to and
prevention measures of climate change must be taken at
agricultural sector level as well as the national with immediate
start. Reflecting the issues of adaptation to climate change on the
national economic growth policy makes actions possible. The
actions are to be taken at the national level on mitigating and
reducing climate change impacts are:
• To plant perennials in abandoned crop field unused since 1990.
these crops can absorb more CO2 which is helpful to balance the
reduction minerals in crop due to climate change particularly soil
degradation.
• To carry out research on planting wheat in winters.
• To improve agricultural industry through establishing agricultural
research institution focused on upgrading grain variety agro
chemistry sowing technology agricultural equipments marketing
pests and diseases.
• Due to climate change it is anticipated the decrease of mineral
substance in soil
• To complete a project on developing irrigated agricultural system
and replicate
• To improve agricultural management,
• To train farmers and cultivators on climate change
• To legislate land utility and land ownership
Conclusion
The Government of Mongolia is presently evaluating the
adaptation and mitigation strategies. In line with the search for
practical strategies. In line with the search for practical
strategies, it also pursues public awareness as an important
component that is crosscutting the overall climate change
approach along the mainstreaming process that the Government
of Mongolia doing.