Climate Change and China’s

Agriculture: Impact, Adaptation

and Mitigation

By Yongsheng Zhang

“Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon

Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia”

6-7 April 2010

Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development
in Agriculture (IEDA), CAAS, Beijing, P R China
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Structure

1. Climate Change in China

2. Agriculture and Its Vulnerability
3. Impact
4. Adaptation
5. Mitigation
6. Policy response

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1. Climate Change in China

 Projections of temperature changes over China in

21st century
[Date: 2004-12-01] [Source: BCC] [Author:Xu Ying,
Gao Xuejie]

 －－average temperatures show increasing trends

 －－Extreme precipitation events tend to increase across
most of China.

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Projections of temperature changes over China in 21st century
[Date: 2004-12-01] [Source: BCC] [Author:Xu Ying, Gao Xuejie]
The time evolution of the averaged temperature change over China relative to
years(1961 to 1990) of the SRES simulation A2 (unit:℃)

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 Projections of temperature changes over China in 21st century
[Date: 2004-12-01] [Source: BCC] [Author:Xu Ying, Gao Xuejie]
The multi-AOGCM ensemble annual mean change of the temperature (unit：℃) over China

for the SRES scenario A2 for the years 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990

The multi-AOGCM ensemble annual mean change of the temperature (unit：℃) over China 5
for the SRES scenario A2 for the years 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990
The time evolution of the averaged temperature change over China relative to
years(1961 to 1990) of the SRES simulation B2 (unit:℃)

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The multi-AOGCM ensemble annual mean change of the
temperature (unit：℃) over China for the SRES scenario B2 for the
years 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990

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Projections of precipitation changes
over China in 21st century

[Date: 2004-12-01] [Source:

BCC] [Author:Xu Ying, Gao Xuejie]

Message:
1) fluctuation of rainfall.
2) uneven regional distribution.

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The time evolution of the averaged precipitation change over China
relative to years(1961 to 1990) of the SRES simulation A2 (unit:%)

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The multi-AOGCM ensemble annual change of the precipitation (unit：%)
over China for the SRES scenario A2 for the years 2071 to 2100 relative to
the period 1961 to 1990

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The time evolution of the averaged precipitation change over China

relative to years(1961 to 1990) of the SRES simulation B2 (unit:%)

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The multi-AOGCM ensemble annual change of the precipitation (unit：%)
over China for the SRES scenario B2 for the years 2071 to 2100 relative to

the period 1961 to 1990

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2. China’s agriculture and its
vulnerability to climate change
China’s agriculture －－
－－ Agriculture Share in GDP: 11.25% (2007)
－－ Rural population:
Average: 55.06% out of 1.32 billion (He’nan: 65.66%; Guizhou:
71.76%; Yunnan: 68.4%)
－－ Agriculture Employment: 40.8%
－－ Income inequality: urban-rural, spatial

Vulnerability－－:
－－ big size of territory: extreme weathers happen every year in
China.
Areas hit by drought in China (unit: 1,000 hectares):
2000(40,541);2001(38,472 );2002(22,207 );2003(24,852 )
2004(17,253 );2005(16,028 );2006(20,738 );2007(29,386 )

－－ Weak resilience to climate change: i) mostly women, children,

elder in agriculture; ii) poor agricultural infrastructure; iii) lack of
effective economic organization in agriculture, etc.
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 A case: draught in southwest
China since the fall of 2009……
 Guanxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing, and Sichuan: 60 million people,
5.034 million hectares farmland. 1.1 million hectares have no harvest.
Direct lose: US$ 3.5 billion.

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 Behind the drought
 －－Climate change: extreme event
 －－Deforestation, power station,
 －－The allocation of Water: bias to industry and urban.

 －－ Poor agricultural infrastructure and mismatching allocation:

China’s investments in water actually increase rapidly:142.7 billion yuan

(US$ 21 billion) in 2009, in which the investment from the central
government was 158% higher than planned 11th FYP, from the local was
116% higher than planned. But the money mainly went to the “big river
and lake” projects, rather than to the small projects.

 Fact: the number of irrigation facilities in good condition －－

 Big facilities: < 50%

 Medium facilities: <40%。
 Big pumping station that need to be innovated: 85%
 Farming land without irrigation facility: >52%

 (sources:http://cn.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1012/7/8/7/101278700_
3.html?coluid=37&kindid=711&docid=101278700&mdate=0402230256)15
 3. Impacts on China’s agriculture
(without adaptation)

Existing studies without considering adaptation: negative results!

－－ Lin (1997，2007)：crop simulation model：yields decrease, if same crops are grown in
same places.
－－ China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change(2007): the yields will, without
adaptation, decrease by 5-10 percent in 2030.

－－ China-UK project（2001-08）：“Climate Change and Agriculture in China”

(http://www.china-climate-adapt.org)
Regional climate change model: PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Study)
Crop model: CERES

－－ Tao et.al (2008), Wu et al. (2006)，Jin et al（1997），Xing（2009）: crop model

－－ Albersen et al. (2000, 2002): AEZ
－－ Zhai, Lin and and Byambadorj (2009): CGE . Impacts on Agricultural Price, Trade, GDP
and Income: The overall impacts on macro-economy are likely to be moderate, but uneven
across regions and subsectors.
－－ Darwin et al, 1995; Franceson et al, 1994.
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Results of China-UK project（2001-08）: “Climate Change
and Agriculture in China”

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4.Adaptation (impacts with
adaptation)
 Cropping Area and Pattern: Many crop areas in the East Asia are moving the
northward and westward…likely to obviously increase the production (if adaptation
takes place).

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Source: Yang et.al. (2010)
Northern Limit of Winter Wheat Production moved
northward 40km-200km, westward 20-120km

Source: Yang et.al. (2010) 19

Wang et. Al (2008):Can China Continue Feeding
Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on
Agriculture

 Methodology: The Ricardian approach (MNS 1994)

using 8,405 farms sampled across 28 provinces. The
Ricardian model assumes that each farmer wishes to
maximize income subject to the exogenous conditions of
their farm.

 Result:
 1) climate has an effect on net revenue in every country.
 2) higher temperatures increase the net revenues of
irrigated farms.
 3) higher temperatures are beneficial to rainfed farms in
cooler climates but harmful to rainfed farms in warm or
hot climates.
 4) more precipitation is beneficial unless there is an
excessive amount of rain.
 5) seasonal impacts vary and are offsetting. 20
Results with or without adaptation are
very different
 How to achieve the potential output
with adaptation?

－－ Agriculture infrastructure
－－ Crop pattern change
－－ Capacity building
－－ Technology innovation
－－ Others
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5.Mitigation
 Smith, et al,
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/conte
nt/363/1492/789.full

－－Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of

global anthropogenic methane and nitrous
oxide emissions.
－－ Agricultural soils may also act as a sink or
source for CO2, but the net flux is small.
－－ Many agricultural practices can potentially
mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

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Mitigation technologies and
practices (Smith, et al 2008)
－－ Cropland management
－－ Agronomy
－－ Nutrient management
－－ Tillage/residue management
－－ Water management
－－ Agroforestry
－－ Land cover change
－－ Grazing land management
－－ Grazing intensity
－－ Increased productivity (including fertilization)
－－ Species introduction
－－ Restoration of degraded lands
－－ Livestock management
－－ Manure
－－ etc. 23
Self-forcing Mechanism of
mitigation in agriculture

 The core problem: how to make the

mitigation automatically happen?

 If farmer can financially benefit from

mitigation……

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6. Policy response
 Policy Target:
Maximum output or Optimal output? Safety output + optimal?

 If adaptation policies were in place, then the negative impacts of

climate change could be minimized.

Solution: Flexible market mechanism + government supports

－－ Agriculture infrastructure
－－ Economic zone adjustment
－－ Crop pattern adjustment
－－ Capacity building
－－ New technology
－－ other
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