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You are on page 1of 36

We will cover Chapter 8 up to page 258.

The main idea here is the reporting of parameter estimates' likely *uncertainties*, along with their

values. Uncertainties are represented as "confidence intervals", as in "95% confidence interval".

A 95% confidence interval means that if sampling was repeated many times, 95% of all samples would produce

a value and associated 95% confidence interval that contained the true population value. A 99% confidence

interval would be wider, and a 90% CI would be narrower. In many cases, estimating an X% confidence

interval corresponds to identifying the values which mark the upper and lower limits of a symmetric area of X%

in the center of the normal distribution.

CI's are often defined in terms of alpha, where alpha is defined by the fact that the confidence is 100% * (1-

alpha). Note that often there are two ways to be outside the CI (a "two-sided confidence interval"), so for a

95% confidence interval alpha is 0.05, and the alpha/2 used below in the calculation of the width of the CI is

0.025. On pg 256, there is a discussion of the tradoff between high confidence, and narrow CI's (see Eq 8-6).

These calculations are done after standardizing the distribution (as in many other places). The widths of the

confidence intervals extend away from the mean by a distance Z-sub-alpha-over-two, times sigma over root

n. Here Z-sub-alpha-over-two is the Z value of the upper 100alpha-over-two of the standard normal

distribution (see Eqns 8-4 and 8-5).

The stuff on Pg 254 is the key here. Also look hard at section 8-1.2, and Examples 8-2 and 8-3.

Chapter 9. Tests of Hypotheses for a Single Sample To page 297.

Chapters 9 and 10, on hypothesis testing for single samples, and statistical inference for two samples, are the

essence of what many people think of as "Statistics". They also are the conceptually hardest parts of this whole

class, for many people, in part because of the several vocabulary terms introduced, and the stiff formalism of

the Null Hypothesis.

The main goal of the methods in Chapter 9 is to allow you to decide whether quantitative claims are true.

Know Type I and Type II errors, and alpha and beta.

The propellant example on pp. 287-288 is the core of the material here.

Be sure you understand all the steps of the procedure in 9-1.6.

Chapter 10. Statistical Inference for Two Samples. To page 355.

Know the Blue terms (as in each chapter).

Be comfortable with Eqn 10-1 and its use.

Be able to do Example 10-1.

Chapter 11. Simple Linear Regression and Correlation. 401-410.

Know what deterministic and empirical models are.

Understand why Fig 11-2 shows Gaussians.

Be aware of the two main abuses of regression.

Know how to do the linear regression material on pp. 406-408.

==============

There will be changes past here.

Chapter 12. Multiple Linear Regression.

Through Example 12-1, and problems 12-1 and 12-2.

Chapter 13. Design and Analysis of Single-Factor Experiments: The Analysis of Variance.

Study the first part through the first paragraph of pg 519.

Know the uses of experimental design, the sequential nature and 4 steps of applying DOE, and the definitions of a screening

experiment and of randomization, treatment, replicate, and nuisance variable.

Understand and be able to draw Figure 13-1, and the importance of comparing variation within a treatment (factor level) and

between treatments.

Understand and be able to write Eqn 13-1, and (qualitatively), the development to Eqns 13-5 and 13-6. 13-4 is important. What are

"Fixed Effects" and "Random Effects" models?

Know that software is usually used in ANOVA analysis, and that Minitab is one popular tool, and what ANOVA stands for and what it

does.

Chapter 14. Design of Experiments with Several Factors.

Know the three uses of DOE, and what a factorial experiment is, and what controllable and non-controllable

variables are.

1. Process Characterization

2. Optimization

3. Product Design

Be sure you understand the material around Figs. 14-2, 14-3 and 14-4, and 14-7 to 14-9. These make the key

point about changing multiple variables simultaneously, and interactions.

Understand Eqn. 14-1.

Know qualitatively what a 2^k design is, center points, and (especially) fractional factorial design.

Know what a response surface is, and how it relates to the earlier material on DOE, the iterative nature of RSM, and what is usually

fit.

Know what steepest ascent is, and the Central Composite Design (in general terms).

To Page TBD. To be updated.

Know the definition and two types of Quality.

Understand the blue box 15-1, and the 5 uses of control charts on the next page.

Know who Shewhart and Deming were.

Know the two types of "causes" in 15-2.1

Know the two main uses of control charts (process control, and as estimating devices). Know the 5 main

reasons for their popularity.

Understand the dilemma of allocating sampling effort.

Understand the material on pp. 644-649, especially the allocation of sampling effort, rational subgroups, the

Western Electric rules, and the challenge posed to these and similar rules by Fig. 15-5.

Know what an X-bar chart is (the ones we studied in detail) and also (from pg. 649) what an R or S chart is.

Define a PCR.

Toyota System.

How to Lie with Statistics.

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