AO A

Ao Poblacin t t
CALCULAR
1950 68000 0 2000 50
1960 92000 10
1970 130000 20

P = A * t^2 + B * t + C

Sistema de ecuaciones

A B C =
0 0 1 68000 0.005 -0.01
100 10 1 92000 -0.15 0.2
400 20 1 130000 1 0

A 70
B 1700
C 68000

ao a Poblacion
calcular Futura
2000 328000
0.005
-0.05
0
 AO POBLACIN 2 DATOS
1940 53000 - - AO A CALCULAR
1950 72000 19000 - N DE DATOS "n"
1960 85000 13000 -6000 Incremento(aos)
1970 92000 7000 -6000
1980 120000 28000 21000
67000 9000

promedio 16750 2000 156500

2promedio Ao a Poblacion
3000 calcular Futura
m 2
(m*(m-1) 2
2000
5
10
AO POBLACION Verificar condiciones:
1960 120000 32640000000 39204000000
1970 198000 392000 396000
1980 272000

2*P0*P1*P2 1.292544E+016
P1^2*(P0+P2) 1.53680E+16
P0*P2-P1^2 -6564000000
PS 372110
a 0.742
b -0.871
3
t
4
0.15
e
0.06
1990 322439
2000 349570
Ao a calcular Incremento
1990
10
2000
 Ao 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Poblacion 53000 72000 85000 92000 120000

Razon de
Ao poblacion (xi) crecimiento Yi Log yi xi^2 Xi*Yi
(%)
1940 53000 35.8 1.5545 2.8E+09 1900000
1950 72000 18.1 1.2566 5.2E+09 1300000
1960 85000 8.2 0.9157 7.2E+09 700000
1970 92000 30.4 1.4834 8.5E+09 2800000
1980 120000
302000 92.6 5.2101 2.37E+10 6700000
Prom 75500 23.1 1.3025 5.92E+09 1675000

SEGN EL CRECIMIENTO ARIMENTICO

Sistema de ecuaciones:

a b =
1 75500 23.1 26.8808172531 -0.0003428
75500 5.92E+09 1675000 -0.0003427923 4.5403E-09
a 47.944
b -0.00032848

yi = a + b x i

SEGN EL CRECIMIENTO GEOMETRICO

A B =
1 75500 1.3025 26.8808172531 -0.0003428
75500 5.92E+09 96791.5 -0.0003427923 4.5403E-09
A 1.8338048378
B -7.036694E-06
a 68.203213537
b -1.620259E-05

yi = a * e^(b*xi)

Aos a calcular despues del Poblacin Crecimiento por dcada (%)

ltimo censo Arimetico Geometrico Arimetico Geometrico
0 120000 120000 8.53 9.76
1990 130232 131711 5.17 8.07
2000 136959 142343
 Aos a calcular:
1990
2000

Xi*Log(Yi)

82387.3
90476.0
77832.7
136470.1

387166.1
96791.5

Incremento por decada

Arimetico Geometrico
10232 11711
6727 10632
 Ao Poblacion (y) X X^2 X^3 X^4
1811 10160 -6 36 -216 1296
1821 12000 -5 25 -125 625
1831 13900 -4 16 -64 256
1841 15910 -3 9 -27 81
1851 17930 -2 4 -8 16
1861 20000 -1 1 -1 1
1871 22000 0 0 0 0
1881 25000 1 1 1 1
1891 27000 2 4 8 16
1901 32000 3 9 27 81
1911 36000 4 16 64 256
1921 37800 5 25 125 625
1931 40000 6 36 216 1296
309700 0 182 0 4550

a b c d =
-13 0 -182 0 -309700
0 -182 0 -4550 -467850
-182 0 -4550 0 -4505070
0 -4550 0 -134342 -11596830

a 22639.37
b 2691.31
c 84.55
d -4.83

y = a + (b * X) + (c * X^2) + (d * X^3)

Hallar "X" 12

Parala el ao: Poblacion

1991 58767
 X^5 X^6 X*Y (X^2)*Y (X^3)*Y n
-7776 46656 -60960 365760 -2194560 13
-3125 15625 -60000 300000 -1500000
-1024 4096 -55600 222400 -889600 Ao a calcular
-243 729 -47730 143190 -429570 1991
-32 64 -35860 71720 -143440
-1 1 -20000 20000 -20000 Incremento
0 0 0 0 0 10
1 1 25000 25000 25000
32 64 54000 108000 216000
243 729 96000 288000 864000
1024 4096 144000 576000 2304000
3125 15625 189000 945000 4725000
7776 46656 240000 1440000 8640000
0 134342 467850 4505070 11596830

-0.1748251748 0 0.006993007 0
0 -0.0358460983 0 0.0012140637
0.006993007 0 -0.0004995005 0
0 0.0012140637 0 -4.856255E-05