MATHEMATICAL METHODS (CAS)

Unit 4 AnalysisProbability practice

Question 1:
Andr, a keen gardener, plants batches of four Banksia seeds in each propagating tray. The number of
seeds that germinatein each tray is a random variable, X, with the following probability distribution.

x 0 1 2 3 4

Pr( X x) 0.1 0.25 m n 0.3

a.i.Given m = 0.3, find n

2 marks
a.ii. Hence find what number is expected to germinate out of each seed tray.

2 marks

Charlotte selects eight of the seed trays at random. What is the probability that four seeds have
a.iii.
germinated in at least one of the trays?

1mark
a.iv.Charlotte selects eight of the seed trays at random. What is the probability that four seeds have
germinated in at least three of the trays, given that four seeds have germinated in less than seven of the
trays?

2marks

Total 7 marks

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Question 2:
The chief buyer of paintings in a gallery is fussy. It is known that only 25% of paintings he looks at
will be, in his opinion, .acceptable enough to buy.
a) What is the chance of him finding the first four paintings he looks at acceptable?

2 marks

b) What is the chance of him finding the first five paintings he looks at unacceptable?

1 mark
c) What is the chance of him finding three paintings out of any six he looks at acceptable?

2 marks
d) What is the chance of him finding at least three paintings out of any six he looks at acceptable?

2 marks
e) If he looks at five paintings, what is the chance he finds at least one acceptable?

2 marks
f) If he looks at 40 paintings, what is the expected number, and Variance of the number of acceptable
paintings he will see?

2 marks

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If he looks at 40 paintings ,What is the probability he finds:-

(i) Less than 8acceptables?

1 mark
(ii) More than 3 but less than 8 acceptables?

1 mark

(iii)More than 3 given that there were less than 8 acceptables?

2 marks
15 MARKS

Question 3:
Another buyer of paintings in a different gallery is temperamental. It is known that if he likes one
painting, there is a 70% chance he will like the next one he looks at. It is also known that if he dislikes
one painting, there is an90% chance he will dislike the next one he looks at.
a) On one given day, he disliked the first painting he saw
i) What is the probability he disliked the next two?

2 marks
ii) What is the probability he liked the next two?

2 marks

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iii) What is the probability he liked one of the next two?

2 marks
iv)Given that he disliked the first painting, complete this probability distribution for how many of the
first three paintings he looked at he liked, and hence find the expected number he liked.

x 0 1 2 3

Pr( X x)

5 marks

Total 11 marks

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Question 4:
A linguist studied the divergence of the English language from German. He found that the life of an old
Germanic word in English (that is, the time taken for an old Germanic word to be replaced) is a random
variable, T years, with the probability density function shown below, where k is a real constant.

400 , 0
() = {
0 , <0
a. Show that = 0.0025
.
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3 marks
b. According to this model, what is the expected or mean life of an old Germanic word in the English
language?

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3 marks

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c. According to this model, what proportion of old Germanic words have a life greater than 300
years? Answer correct to three decimal places.

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3 marks

Total 9 marks

Question 5:
1
If Pr( ) = 0.2, and Pr(|) = ,
2
a) Find Pr()

Also given ( ) = 0.1, Find:-

b) Pr( )

c) Pr()

d)Pr( )

e) Pr(|)

f) Pr(|)

A B

10 marks for answers, 3 for diagram

Total 13 marks

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Question 6:
The marks gained on an exam are modelled by a normally distributed random variable with a mean of
50 marks and a standard deviation of 10 marks. Find
a) The probability of a score less than 60

1mark
b) The probability of a score between 42 and 56

1mark
c) The probability of a score between 42 and 56, given that the score is less than 60.

2marks
d) That if the probability of getting a score less than k is 0.7, what is the value of k?

1mark
e) That if the probability of getting a score between 40 and k is 0.3, what is the possible valueof k?

3marks

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 f) If the marks are standardised to a mean of 30 and a standard deviation of 7, complete the table:-

Exam score x 55
Z score
Standardised
score
Percentile
(Probability 0.1
mark<x)
6 marks
g) If you selected 10 students, what is the probability that more than 1 will have a (non adjusted )
mark of 55 or more?

1mark
h) If you selected 40 students, what is the expected number of students that will have a (non adjusted )
mark of 55 or more?

2marks

i) A different exam has a normally distributed range of scores with a mean score of 45 and a standard
deviation of m. If 20% of students get a score between 43 and 47, find m.

2marks

j) Another different exam has a normally distributed range of scores with a mean score of n and a
standard deviation of 6. If 32% of students get a score more than 62, find n.

2marks

Total 21 marks

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