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Systematic Risk Assessment of High

-
risk Structures against
Disproportionate Collapse
Based on IStructE guidelines

Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil

Key Concepts and Eurocode Requirements

2. BACK GROUND AND DESIGN
OBJECTIVES

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Risk-based approach for design
(against disproportionate collapse)

• Not a substitute for the lack of structural form
• Objectives
– Identify Hazards
– Eliminate the hazards
– Develop risk-reduction measures
• Level of detail – Engineer to decide
– Qualitative, Semi-quantitative & fully quantitative

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Risk • Hazard: something which has the potential to cause harm – Action on the structure – “Soft” hazard [eg: failure to communicate effectively] • Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 4 .

Risk-based design • “Acceptable level of risk” – unique for a structure • Good risk management – Costs of risk reduction ≈ magnitude of risk • Secondary benefit – Indentifying and communicating risks 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 5 .

Reduction of risk As low as reasonably practicable • Approach 1: – Reduce all risk to threshold • Approach 2: – Reduce all risks so far as reasonably practicable(SFARP) • Risks above threshold – unacceptable 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 6 .

Building risk classification • Class 1 • Class 2A – Lower Risk Group • Class 2B – Upper Risk Group • Class 3 – High Risk Group – “a systematic risk assessment of the building should be undertaken taking into account both foreseeable and unforeseeable hazards” 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 7 .

DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEMATIC RISK ASSESSMENT 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 8 . Framework for a systematic risk assessment 3.

Framework • Single author – full responsibility – Suitable Qualification and Experience (SQEP) – Risk assessment workshop – HAZard and Operability study (HAZOP) • Framework – Scenario-independent design – Scenario-dependent design 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 9 .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 10 remaining risks .

Likelihood scale Example Likelihood scale Approximate return period Likelihood Frequency (based on 50 year design life) Frequent/ 10 times in design life Less than 1 in 10 years common Likely 50% probability of occurrence during design life 1 in 10 years to 1 in 100 years Unlikely 10% probability of occurrence during design life 1 in 100 years to 1 in 1000 years Rare 2% probability of occurrence during design life 1 in 1000 years to 1 in 10000 years Improbably 0.1% probability of occurrence during design life 1 in 10000 years to 1 in 100000 years Negligible Less than 0.1% probability of occurrence during design life Greater than 1 in 100000 years 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 11 .

Consequence Scale 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 12 .

Risk Threshold 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 13 .

Parties involved in risk assessment • Client/building owner • Structural engineer (designer) • Other designers • External stakeholders • Building control authority • CDM coordinator/ risk management specialist 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 14 .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 15 remaining risks .

(1) Identify the hazards 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 16 .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 17 remaining risks .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 18 remaining risks .

(2) Eliminate the hazards • Easier at the early stages of design 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 19 .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 20 remaining risks .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 21 remaining risks .

(3) Determine the tolerable risk threshold • Extent of collapse for any given likelihood • The threshold should be skewed towards consequence – This effect diminishes beyond a certain point 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 22 .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 23 remaining risks .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 24 remaining risks .

(4) Evaluate the risk • Risk = likelihood × consequence • Watch points – Sensitivity of solution/risk 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 25 .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 26 remaining risks .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 27 remaining risks .

(5) Identify risk reduction measures • Irrespective of level of risk • Reduction of a risk may increase another risk • Not limited technical – “Soft” (procedural) 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 28 .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 29 remaining risks .

1 Identify the hazards Eliminate the Determine the 2 3 hazards if possible tolerable risk level Risk = Likelihood × Consequence 4 Identify risk reduction measures 5 Benefit / Cost assessment 6 Review Implement risk reduction 7 Residual risk 8 Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9 Communicate 7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan the overall level of risk Panikkaveettil 30 remaining risks .

programme delay… • Benefit – reduction in fatality. injury 7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 31 . (6) Cost-benefit assessment • Cost – financial cost.