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GROWTH, INNOVATION AND THE

PACE OF LIFE FROM CELLS TO


CITIES AND CORPORATIONS;
ARE THEY SUSTAINABLE?

GEOFFREY WEST

SANTA FE INSTITUTE
300

240
Weight (g)

180

120

60

0
0 60 120 180 240 300 360
Age (day)
ARE CITIES AND COMPANIES JUST
VERY LARGE ORGANISMS
SATISFYING THE LAWS OF BIOLOGY?

WHY DO ALL COMPANIES DIE


WHEREAS ALMOST ALL CITIES
SURVIVE?
LIVING/MAINTENANCE

GROWTH

REPRODUCTION

AGING/DEATH

EVOLUTION
SLEEP/REPAIR

DISEASE/CANCER

ENERGY & RESOURCES


vs. INFORMATION

THE SEARCH FOR UNDERLYING LAWS


AND PRINCIPLES LEADING TO A
QUANTITATIVE PREDICTIVE
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
SEARCH FOR UNDERLYING LAWS AND
PRINCIPLES LEADING TO A QUANTITATIVE
PREDICTIVE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
SEARCH FOR UNDERLYING LAWS AND
PRINCIPLES LEADING TO A QUANTITATIVE
PREDICTIVE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

CAN THERE BE NEWTONS LAWS OF


LIVING SYSTEMS (INCLUDING CITIES AND
COMPANIES)?
SEARCH FOR UNDERLYING LAWS AND
PRINCIPLES LEADING TO A QUANTITATIVE
PREDICTIVE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

CAN THERE BE NEWTONS LAWS OF


LIVING SYSTEMS (INCLUDING CITIES AND
COMPANIES)?

COMPLEXITY
Q: Some say that while the
20th century was the century
of physics, we are now
entering the century of biology.
What do you think of this?
A: I think the next century will
be the century of complexity.
Stephen Hawking interview, January,
2000
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS

MANY COMPONENTS
MANY INDIVIDUAL ACTORS / AGENTS
MULTI SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES
STRONGLY COUPLED / INTERACTING
NON-LINEAR
SENSITIVITY TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS (CHAOS)
EMERGENT PHENOMENA / MULTIPLE PHASES
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
ADAPTIVE / EVOLVING
HISTORICALLY CONTINGENT / PATH DEPENDENT
ROBUST / RESILIENT
NON-EQUILIBRIUM
UNDERLYING SIMPLICITY
COMPLICATED vs COMPLEX
COARSE- GRAINED DESCRIPTION

KINETIC THEORY

QUARK MODEL

LONGEVITY
INTERSPECIFIC SIZE DISTRIBUTION
All species in a Malaysian Rainforest
3

1947

N = 62 D-2.07
log number of trunks

2.5

1981

2 N = 55 D-1.95

1.5

0.5
1

3
0.5

1.5

2.5

log trunk diameter (cm)


WE LIVE IN AN EXPONENTIALLY
EXPANDING SOCIO-ECONOMIC
UNIVERSE!!
1800 < 4% OF THE US POPULATION WAS URBAN

2011 > 80%

2006 > 50% WORLDS POPULATION URBANISED

2050 > 75%

EVERY WEEK FROM NOW TILL 2050


OVER ONE MILLION PEOPLE ARE BEING
ADDED TO OUR CITIES
Public sculptures cast in
metal are being substituted
with cheap plastic replicas to
prevent them being stolen by
thieves feeding the
voracious appetite for
commodities in China and
India.

1 September 2011

The Historic Houses


Association said this
weekend that many stately
home owners were putting
antique garden statues into
storage and displaying
plastic copies instead.
Scaling of economics with energy use
SCALABILITY

RESILIENCE
Mammals vary in size by
8 orders of magnitude

Shrew Elephant
2g 2,000,000g

Blue Whale
200,000,000g
SLOPE = < 1 SUB-LINEAR
Whole-organism metabolic rate (B)
scales as the 3/4 power of body mass (M)

B M 3/4

Hemmingson 1960
PLANTS/TREES

0.780 0.037
BM
METABOLIC RATE INCREASES NON-
LINEARLY WITH SIZE

B~ M 3/4

OVER 27 ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE

SINCE Ncells ~ M NAIVELY MIGHT EXPECT B ~ M

HOWEVER, IF MASS (SIZE) INCREASES BY A FACTOR OF


10,000 (104)
THEN
METABOLIC RATE INCREASES BY ONLY A FACTOR OF
1,000 (103)
RATE OF ENERGY USE (METABOLIC
RATE) OF CELLS
SYSTEMATICALLY DECREASES
WITH SIZE OF ORGANISM

1
Bcell ~ 1/ 4
M
LIFE EXHIBITS A
SYSTEMATIC ECONOMY OF
SCALE
Metabolic rate sets the pace of life
small animals live fast and die young

heart rate scales as


-1/4 power of body mass
MORE FUNDAMENTALLY, ACROSS AEROBIC METABOLISM:
THE NUMBER OF TURNOVERS IN A LIFETIME OF CytO
ENZYMES (RESPIRATORY COMPLEX) IS AN APPROXIMATE
INVARIANT (~ 1016)
NETWORKS!!!

(FRACTALS!!)
Large vessels
branch into
smaller ones

Beating heart

Pulse wave
propagates
through elastic
vessels
Relation between number and
size of branches within a tree
Microcapillary tubes follow branching
architecture from trunk to leaves
What is this?
`
INCOMING METABOLISED ENERGY


MAINTENANCE
(of existing cells)
+
GROWTH
(of new cells)
dN cell
B = N cellsBcell + E cell
dt
IN TERMS OF MASS AT AGE t
dm
= am 3 / 4 bm
dt
B0 m c
where a
Ec
Bc
b
Ec


NETWORK GEOMETRY AND DYNAMICS
CONTROLS THE PACE OF LIFE AT ALL
SCALES LEADING TO AN EMERGENT
UNIVERSAL TIME SCALE
B 1/ 4
Bcell = B0 M
M
THE PACE OF LIFE SYSTEMATICALLY
SLOWS WITH INCREASING SIZE

ALL RATES ~ M-1/4 ALL TIMES ~ M1/4

METABOLISM LIFESPANS
TURNOVER TIMES
GROWTH
TIMES TO MATURITY
EVOLUTION CIRCULATION TIMES
LONGEVITY .
DIFFUSION
FLUXES
.
BIOLOGY (LIFE)
a) DOMINATED BY NON-LINEAR 1/4 - POWER
SCALING

b)EXTRAORDINARY ECONOMIES OF SCALE (THE


BIGGER YOU ARE, THE LESS YOU NEED PER
CAPITA)

c) PACE OF LIFE SYSTEMATICALLY SLOWS WITH


INCREASING SIZE;

d) GROWTH IS SIGMOIDAL REACHING A STABLE


SIZE AT MATURITY

e) NETWORKS
SUSTAINABLE!!
JAMES BROWN (UNM/SFI)
BRIAN ENQUIST (U. ARIZONA)
WOODY WOODRUFF (LANL)
VAN SAVAGE (HARVARD)
JAMIE GILOOLLY (U. FLORIDA)
DREW ALLEN (UCSB)
MICHELLE GIRVAN (U. MARYLAND)
ALEX HERMAN (UCSF)
CHRIS KEMPES (MIT)
LUIS BETTENCOURT (LOS ALAMOS/SFI - PHYSICS)
JOSE LOBO (CORNELL/ASU - URBAN ECONOMICS)
DEBORAH STRUMSKY (HARVARD/UNC - ECONOMICS)
HYEJIN YOUN (SFI - PHYSICS)
MARCUS HAMILTON (SFI/UNM - ANTHROPOLOGY)
NATHANIEL RODRIGUEZ (SFI COMPUTER SCIENCE)

DIRK HELBING (ETH ZURICH - TRANSPORT/PHYSICS)


ERICH RAUCH (PHYSICS/BIOLOGY - MIT/PRINCETON)

DAVID LANE (U. REGGIO - STATISTICS/ECONOMICS)


SANDER van der LEEUW (ASU - ANTHROPOLOGY)
DENISE PUMAIN (PARIS - URBAN GEOGRAPHY)
SPYROS SKOURAS (ECONOMICS - U. ATHENS)
G.B.W., Brown J.H., and Enquist, B.J. A general model for the origin of allometric
scaling laws in biology. Science 276, 122 (1997).

G.B.W, J.H. Brown and B.J. Enquist. The fourth dimension of life: fractal
geometry and allometric scaling of organisms. Science 284, 167 (1999).

G.B., J.H. Brown & B.J. Enquist. A general model for ontogenetic growth. Nature
413:628 (2001).

G. B., Wood ruff, W. H. & Brown, J. H. Allometric Scaling of Metabolism from


Molecules and Mitochondria to Cells and Mammal, PNAS 99, 2473 (2002).

G.B.W., and J.H. Brown. The origin of allometric scaling laws in biology from
genomes to ecosystems: towards a quantitative unifying theory of biological
structure and organization. J. of Exp. Biology. 208, 1575 (2005).

L. M. A. Bettencourt, J. Lobo, D. Helbing, C. Khnert and G.B.W. Growth,


Innovation, Scaling, and the Pace of Life in Cities. PNAS, 104 7301 (2007)

J. F. Gillooly, A. P. Allen, G.B.W., and J. H. Brown. The Rate of DNA


Evolution: Effects of Body Size and Temperature on the Molecular Clock.
Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 102(11) (2005): 145

G.B.W. & A . Bergman. Toward a systems biology framework for


understanding aging and health span. J. Gerontol. A Biol. Sci Med S c i

G.B.W. & J. H. Brown Lifes Universal Scaling Laws. Physics Today 57(9) (2004):
36
L. M. A. Bettencourt, J. Lobo & G.B.W. Why are large cities faster? Universal
scaling and self-similarity in urban organization and dynamics The European
Physical Journal B, J. B 63, 285293 (2008)

Energy uptake and allocation during ontogeny; Hou, C.; Zuo, W.Y.; Moses,
M.E.; Woodruff, W.H.; Brown, J.H.; G.B.W.; Science 322, 736-739 (2008).
ARE CITIES (AND COMPANIES)
SCALED VERSIONS OF EACH
OTHER?

DO THEY MANIFEST
UNIVERSALITY?
Kuhnert, Helbing & West, Physica A363, 96-103 (2003)
Example of scaling rela1onships

a) Total WAGES per MSA in 2004 for the


USA vs. metropolitan populaDon.

b) SUPERCREATIVE employment per


MSA in 2003, for the USA vs. metropolitan
populaDon.

SUPER-LINEAR
SCALING
Innovation measured by Patents
Total Crime (Japan)

Slope = 1.21 [1.08, 1.35]


UNIVERSALITY
TAXONOMY OF EXPONENTS
FALL INTO THREE UNIVERSAL
CLASSES

i) b ~ 0.8 < 1 INFRASTRUCTURE


(BIOLOGICAL)
SUB-LINEAR ECONOMIES OF SCALE
DRIVEN BY EFFICIENCY

ii) b = 1
LINEAR NON-INNOVATIVE

iii) b ~ 1.15 >1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC


SUPER-LINEAR INNOVATIVE DRIVEN BY
WEALTH CREATION
THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY

DOUBLING THE SIZE OF A CITY


SYSTEMATICALLY INCREASES
INCOME, WEALTH, NUMBER OF
PATENTS, NUMBER OF COLLEGES,
NUMBER OF CREATIVE PEOPLE,
NUMBER OF POLICE, CRIME RATE,
NUMBER OF AIDS & FLU CASES,
AMOUNT OF WASTE,..
ALL BY ~ 15%
REGARDLESS OF CITY
b
R~N
NETWORK DYNAMICS IMPLIES THAT THE
PACE OF LIFE IS DETERMINED BY

RATES ~ N b-1

b<1 PACE OF LIFE SLOWS DOWN

b>1 PACE OF LIFE SPEEDS UP


Pace of biological life vs.
Pace of social life

Heart Rate vs. Body Size


Walking Speed vs. Population Size

FINANCIAL MARKETS,
ECONOMIES,
GLOBAL WARMING,
ENVIRONMENT,
URBANISATION,
HEALTH,
CRIME,
POLLUTION,.

ARE NOT INDEPENDENT

THEY ARE ALL HIGHLY COUPLED, INTER-


RELATED COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
UNIVERSALITY OF SOCIAL
NETWORKS (CLUSTERING
HIERARCHIES)
Average idealised, universal
characteristics of cities of a given size
(constrained by underlying principles and
dynamics of network structures -
manifested in scaling laws)

vs.

Characteristics of specific cities as


measured by deviations from scaling
laws representing their individuality and
local environment and conditions
2003 Patenting Rankings

5
Cornwallis, OR (1)

4
San Jose (4)

3
Boston (107)

2
Phoenix (155)
1

0
-1 Denver (206)

-2 New York (272)

-3

-4 Abilene (359)

-5
1
14
27
40
53
66
79
92

105
118

131
144
157
170
183

196
209
222
235
248
261
274
287

300
313
326
339
352
Growth Equation
dN R1
R0
= N N
dt E 0 R1

SOLUTION:

R0
1 R1 1 R1 (1 )t
E0
N = + N (0) e
R0 R0

CHARACTER OF SOLUTION SENSITIVE TO >,=,< 1

N(t)

N(0)

b<1 (SUB-LINEAR) BOUNDED GROWTH


b >1 (SUPER-LINEAR)

SUPER-EXPONENTIAL
UNBOUNDED GROWTH COLLAPSE
N(t) UNBOUNDED GROWTH REQUIRES
ACCELERATING CYCLES OF
INNOVATION TO AVOID COLLAPSE

N(t)

N3(0) .
N2(0) .
N(t)
N1(0) .
N(t)
N(0)
t t
tc

t
tc
Population growth for New York City
1790 - 2003
Successive cycles of superlinear innovation reset the singularity and
postpone instability and subsequent collapse. The relative population
growth rate of New York City over time reveals periods of accelerated
(super-exponential) growth. Successive shorter periods of super
exponential growth appear, separated by brief periods of deceleration.
(Inset) tc for each of these periods vs. population at the onset of the cycle.
Observations are well fit with = 1.09 (green line).
UNBOUNDED GROWTH LEADING TO
FINITE-TIME SINGULARITY & COLLAPSE

UNLESS INNOVATIONS (SYSTEMATICALLY)


OCCCUR FASTER AND FASTER

CONTINUOUS TENSION BETWEEN:

INNOVATION & WEALTH CREATION vs


ECONOMIES OF SCALE
1982 1997
1.2 million

Registered
genetic pairs
(75% in last 2 yrs)
Damien
Internet (3 yrs)
Broderick

PC (6 yrs)

VCR (8 yrs)

Cellular phone (11 yrs)

Fax (20 yrs)

Cable TV (25 yrs)

Telephone (40+ yrs)

Years to reach 10 million customers (US)


Time
Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that is
represents a rupture in the fabric of human history
1010
109 Primitive Cells (billions)

108 Body Plans (Cambrian Explosion: tens of millions)


107 Mammals
Paradigm Primates
Shift 106 Humanoids (millions)
Time 105 Homo Sapiens (hundreds of thousands)
(Years)
104 Stone Tools (tens of thousands)

103 Iron

102 Printing (century or two)


Phone TV
101 Computers
Cell Phones Internet
100
1010 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100
Years ago
CITIES AND URBANISATION (ECONOMIES)

a) SUPER-LINEAR DOMINATED BY INNOVATION &


WEALTH CREATION

THE BIGGER YOU ARE, THE MORE YOU GET


PER CAPITA OF EVERYTHING FROM INCOME
AND INNOVATION TO CRIME, POLLUTION AND
DISEASE - ALL TO THE SAME DEGREE (~15%
FOR EVERY DOUBLING OF SIZE)

b) SYSTEMATIC INCREASE OF PACE OF LIFE

c) UNBOUNDED GROWTH vs COLLAPSE


NOT SUSTAINABLE!!??
NEED A NEW PARADIGM, A NEW
INTEGRATED CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK:
SYSTEMIC, HOLISTIC, QUANTITATIVE,
PREDICTIVE

GRAND UNIFIED THEORY OF


SUSTAINABILITY
OUR NATURAL METABOLIC RATE ~ 90 watts

OUR SOCIAL METABOLIC RATE ~ 11,000 watts !!!

WE ARE EQUIVALENT TO A 30,000 Kg GORILLA !!!

REPRODUCTION RATE OF ~ ONE OFFSPRING PER


15 years
PATRONS:

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

GENE & CLARE THAW CHARITABLE TRUST

BRYAN & JUNE ZWAN FOUNDATION

ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION

McDONNELL FOUNDATION