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You are on page 1of 22

3, pp 219240, 1998

Pergamon # 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Printed in Great Britain

0198-9715/98 $19.00 + 0.00

PII: S0198-9715(98)00048-9

MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Akira Ohgai {, Seiji Sato {{ and Satoshi Hagishima *

*Department of Architecture, Kyushu University, Fukuoka City, Japan

{

Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi University

of Technology, Toyohashi City, Japan

{{

Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Oita, Oita City,

Japan

changes in the location of retail facilities that is applied to the Fukuoka

metropolitan area of Japan. The model has three important characteristics. First,

it clears the retail employment by applying multiple regression analysis and a

modified Huff model incorporating distance and population. Secondly, it

allocates retail employment for two types of retail stores: convenience-goods

stores and shopping-goods stores. Thirdly, it computes commercial floor area for

each retail type. # 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

NOMENCLATURE

Variables

Emi (t) employees of district i

Wim(t) sales floor area of district i

Si land area of district i

Cij distance from district i to district j

l parameter for the attraction force for the sales floor area

k parameter for the distance resistance (k > 0)

k, K proportional fixed number

Tmij (t) probability that inhabitants in i choose facilities in j

Ga gravitation force by a

Fi(t) total floor area of commercial facilities

Li(t) commercial land-use area

Lci capacity of the commercial land-use area

Ri(t) floor area ratio

Rci controlled value of the floor area ratio

219

220 N. Satani et al.

t estimation period

i, j district number

INTRODUCTION

Several phenomena were observed in Japan following the depopulation of the central

business districts in the 1960s. Retail facilities tended to be located in the suburbs and the

scale of the retail facilities tends to be larger. Shopping districts in the center of

metropolitan areas tend to be on the decline due to de-commercialization. Causes of the

de-commercialization include: (1) increased traffic congestion in the center of metropolitan

areas caused by the growth in car ownership; (2) soaring land prices in the center of

metropolitan areas; (3) the ease of opening large-sized stores by amending the law; and (4)

retail facilities are easily located in any zone under the Japanese zoning system. Political

issues are required to consider these issues, making it important to understand the location

trends of retail facilities.

Previous Studies

Reilly (1931) study of trading areas suggested the concept of population potential. Eq.

(1) shows that the size of the trading area in a city is assumed to be in proportion to the

city's population and inversely proportionate to the power b to the distance of the city.

Pa

Ga / : 1

Ca

A retail spatial interaction model was developed by Huff (1963) and Lakshumanan &

Hansen (1965). Their model adjusted the sales floor area by a power of l. The parameter l

represents the force of attraction. This modified Huff Model, shown in Eq. (2), takes the

sales floor area as a known quantity. From this it can then estimate the influence on the

trading area of an increase in the sales floor area.

Wj =Cij

Tij : 2

j Wj =Cij

Harris & Wilson (1978) proposed a model that estimated the spatial location of the

commercial floor area by introducing the concept of commercial floor investment into the

Modified Huff Model. Kim et al. (1991) empirically formulated indices for each land-use

by using statistical methods and proposed a land-use forecasting method that utilized these

methods. These studies provide the basis for the attempt in this study to develop a practical

model for estimating the location trends of retail facilities.

Commercial Facility Location Model 221

Research Objective

This study proposes a new commercial facility location model which combines the

Modified Huff Model and multiple regression analysis. The model deals specially with

retail trade and is applied to the Fukuoka metropolitan area of Japan.

This paper is organized as follows. The immediately following section explains the

model. The next section considers the applied example. Concluding comments are

provided in the final section.

Model Assumptions

Four assumptions were made in constructing the model. The model first assumes that

the sales floor area of retail facilities is influenced by the population in surrounding areas

and their accessibility to the facilities. Thus, the model uses the Modified Huff Model

which uses the population of surrounding areas and the distance from these areas as its

explanation variables.

Second, four ranks of retail facilities were assumed as shown in Figure 1. The size of the

purchasing area is assumed to be different for each rank: central commercial districts, sub-

central commercial districts, local commercial districts, and neighborhood commercial

districts. The influence of the purchasing area on the surrounding districts is also different

for each rank. Thus, the district and purchasing area for each rank was determined by

empirical investigations. The central commercial districts is influenced by the population

of the entire metropolitan area. The influence of the sub-central commercial districts is

about 5 km. The influence for local commercial districts is about 2 km. The influence of a

neighborhood commercial district is limited to a particular district and its neighboring

222 N. Satani et al.

districts. Eq. (1) was used to determine the purchasing area by applying multiple regression

analysis.

Third, the model assumes that retail trade can be classified into either ``convenience

goods'' or ``shopping goods.'' This classification is used to determine the location, scale,

goods composition, and plans for retail stores. Convenience goods are the necessities of life

such as food which implies that these stores are used with high frequency. Shopping goods

refer to nonessential or luxury items which are dependent on one's taste such as clothes.

This implies that the frequency of using these stores is not as high as for convenience

goods. The model takes these behavioral patterns into consideration by identifying two

retail types.

Finally, the model includes a method which controls the overall trend by accumulating

the estimated values, and checking these values against the permissible values for each

statistical district.

An outline on the model is shown in Figure 2. First, the number of retail employees is

estimated using two methods in [STEP1]. One estimate is obtained by applying the

Modified Huff Model; the other uses multiple regression analysis. Secondly, the value for

the sales floor area per employee is estimated in [STEP2]. This value is called The Original

Unit. Thirdly, the sales floor area is estimated by multiplying the number of employees by

the original unit in [STEP3]. Lastly, the final value is fixed by the criteria applied to two

phases in [STEP4].

The first criterion checks whether the estimated increase in an area can be

accommodated by the existing land-use area. The second criterion determines whether

increased floor area ratio can be accommodated within the control value specified by law

for each land-use. The values for the year 2010 can be estimated by applying these four

steps at intervals of five years from 1995.

Estimating the number of employees by the Modified Huff Model. The Modified Huff

Model is shown in Eq. (2). Tm ij is a probability that inhabitants of district i in period t will

go shopping at retail facilities in j when the assumed sales floor area of type m is Wjm. The

number of people who go shopping is j is got by multiplying Tm ij by the number of

inhabitants in i as shown in Eq. (3).

Pi tTm

ij t: 3

The number of retail trade employees in j is proportional to the number of people who

go shopping to j. That is, the more customers who come, the more retail employees are

necessary. This expression is given in Eq. (4) as follows.

Em m

j t / i Pi tTij t: 4

Commercial Facility Location Model 223

Km

i is assumed to be a fixed number. Then Eq. (5) allows the number of employees to be

estimated for an assumed value of Wjm.

Em m m

j t i Ki Pi tTij t: 5

The procedure for computing Kim is shown in the following equation. It assumes that the

number of retail employees per customer changes over time.

m m

Kmi Ei t=Pi t = Ei t 1=Pi t 1 :

The time period, t can now be set to the target period, and Wm replaced by Wm t 1

and DWm . This allows Tmij t in period t to be estimated by using Eq. (2) and an assumed

224 N. Satani et al.

sales floor area increase (DWm . Furthermore, the number of employees in period t, Em j t,

can be estimated by multiplying Tm ij t by P i t.

Estimating the number of employees by Multiple Regression Analysis. As was mentioned

above, the sphere of the purchasing area is classified into four ranks: central commercial

district, sub-central commercial district, local commercial district, and neighborhood

commercial district. The influence of the purchasing area on surrounding districts is

different for each rank as determined by empirical investigation. This was done by

applying the Gravity Model shown in Eq. (1). This assumes that the number of employees

in j is proportional to the population potential of districts around j. The influence of retail

facilities in j on the population in i can be explained by this concept. If there are great

differences between the areas near each district, the influence for the potential by the inner

distance is great. Therefore, the model uses multiple regression analysis to define a given

district as the first member of Eq. (6a) and the surrounding districts as the second member.

The first member of this equation is used to adjust the influence by the area of the given

statistical district. The second member is the population potential inside the purchasing

area for each rank as described above.

Pi t Pj t

Em m

i t a1 m

l am

l j2l

m

m a0 : 6a

Cii Cji

The growth of the employment of type m in district i per person is Kim. Eq. (6b) takes

this adjustment into consideration by using Kim on each district.

( )

m

m

m Ki Pi t m

Km

j Pj t

m

m Ei 0obs

Ei t a1 m

l al j2l m

a0 : 6b

Cii Cji Em

i 0est

population in t in Eq. (6b).

Fixing the number of employees. The estimated value by the Modified Huff Model is

comparatively low for districts on the border of the study area. On the other hand, values

for the multiple regression analysis depend mainly on past changes. As a result, this value

reacts slowly at the center of the study area and is more realistic at the border. However,

these values are not combined to estimate a single value. Instead, each value is estimated

separately and combined in the last step.

The number of employees were estimated in the previous step. Now, the original unit for

the conversion of employees into the sales floor area will be estimated. The original unit is

the value of the sales floor area per retail employee. The original unit was first measured by

investigating the actual conditions. This value changes as time goes on. An original unit of

type m in district i at period t is given in Eq. (7).

Wmi t

Um

i t m : 7

Ei t

Now, aim(t) is defined as the change of the original unit from period t 7 1 to t. Therefore,

Commercial Facility Location Model 225

Um m

i tUi t1

am t tt1 ;

8

Um m m

i t ai t Ui t 1;

Wmi t Wmi t1

Em t am

i t Em t1 :

i i

The original unit of type m at period t can, therefore, be estimated for each district by

applying Eq. (8).

The sales floor area for each district can be estimated by multiplying the number of

employees in the district by the original unit. This is done by applying Eq. (9) which is a

modified form of Eq. (8).

Wmi t 1 m

Wm m

i t ai t E t: 9

Ei t 1 i

m

If an estimated sales floor area has increased, it is necessary to determine whether the

increase can be located or not by employing two checks at this step. The first check is the

land-use area. If it passes this check, it is then checked by the allowable floor area ratio.

Land-use area check. For the land-use area check, it is necessary to calculate the land-use

area from the sales floor increase Li(t), given by the past trend. The value of Li(t) is

estimated from Eq. (10) using the ratio of the existing land-use area Li t 1 to the total

floor area, Fi t 1 of the commercial facilities in period t 1. This value is checked up by

comparing Li t and Lci .

Li t 1

Li t Li t 1 Wi t: 10

Fi t 1

If Li t > Lci ! check by floor area ratio.

Check by floor area ratio. Controls based on the zoning system exist in each district. In

cases where there is a shortage of land, Lci, it is assumed that the floor area ratio can be

increased by expansion or redevelopment. For this check, the value of Ri(t) must be

calculated using the estimated sales floor area increase DWi t. The value of Ri(t) is given

by Eq. (11). It is evaluated by comparing Ri(t) and Rci.

Fi t 1 Wi t

Ri t : 11

Li t 1

If increased floor area ratio is larger than the control value, the model goes to [STEP 2]

and adjusts the original unit in the district, and then estimates the sales floor area again. If

226 N. Satani et al.

the ratio is still larger than the control value, it considers the possibility of changing the

regulations for planned big projects, revises the planned data, goes back to [STEP 1], and

estimates the number of employees again.

This completes the description of the model.

The model will now be applied to the Fukuoka metropolitan area. This area consists of

seven cities, 14 towns, and a village around Fukuoka City, the central business city on

Kyushu Island, located in the southern part in Japan. The population of this area was

about two million in 1996 and the sales floor area of retail facilities in this area was about

2.1 million square meters in 1994. The districts in the Fukuoka area are shown in Figure 3.

It is assumed that each district is represented as a node and each node is linked with

neighboring nodes to make up the network structure. The network for the Fukuoka

metropolitan area is shown in Figure 4.

Commercial Facility Location Model 227

Input Data

The required input data are shown in Table 1. The population, area, number of

employees of each type, sales floor area of each type, road distance between neighboring

districts (m), the railway distance (expressed in terms of the road distance), and the OD

(Origin and Destination) information for each type of retail good are required. These data

were classified by the Japan industrial standard classification as is shown in Table 2. The

total floor area, the land-use area, and the controlled floor area ratio are used to check the

permissible values in [STEP4]. The planned data includes: (1) the population in 1995, 2000,

2005, and 2010; (2) the sales floor area of large-sized stores which are planned until the

year 2000; and (3) and the railway distance by subway number three which will open in

2006.

Parameter Estimation

Required parameters were first estimated by using the observed data for 1994 and the

Modified Huff Model and multiple regression analysis.

Parameters for the Modified Huff Model. The l and k parameters in Eq. (2) must first be

estimated. In addition, because the time distance will be shortened by improvements to the

railway network, a time-distance parameter a is used to estimate the relationship between

the road time distance and the railway time distance. The l, k, and a parameters were

228 N. Satani et al.

1 Population * * * * * * * *

2 Area *

3 Employees Convenience * * * *

4 Employees Shopping * * * *

5 Sales oor area Convenience * * *

6 Sales oor area Shopping * * *

7 Road distance * * * * *

8 Rail-way distance * * * * *

9 OD Convenience *

10 OD Shopping *

11 Total oor area *

12 Land-use area *

13 Controlled oor area ratio * *

542 Male clothing 582 Agricultural things

543 Female and children's clothing 584 Books, stationery

544 Shoes, footwear 585 Sporting goods, toy, amusement

549 Other textiles, Clothes, personal thing things, musical instrument

562 Bicycle (including motorbike) 586 Camera, photographic materials

571 Furniture, ttings, mat 587 Watch, glasses, optical instrument

573 China and porcelain, glassware 588 Secondhand article

574 Household machine and utensils 589 The others

531 Department store 539 Other various commodity

552 Liquor, seasoning 558 Rice

553 Meat 559 Other food and drink

554 Fish 572 Iron goods, household goods

555 Dry foods 581 Medicines, cosmetics

556 Vegetables, fruit

561 Car 583 Fuel

estimated using Eq. (12) given by Hagishima et al. (1987) and minimizing the value of ' in

this equation.

The estimation process for the l, k and a parameters for convenience goods is shown in

Figure 5. The corresponding process for estimating the shopping-goods parameters is

shown in Figure 6. The procedure calculates l and k first by fixing a, then a is calculated by

fixing l and k. The parameters were estimated again by repeating this procedure until the

values converged. The parameter l for estimating population potential in the next section

has this value.

Commercial Facility Location Model 229

Estimation of l, k and a

Type Parameter

a

Shopping 1.49 1.41 1.01

230

Origin Destination 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Sum

No. Name Higashi-ku Hakata-ku Chuo-ku Minami-ku Nishi-ku Jonan-ku Sawara-ku Chikushi area Kasuya Munakata Itoshima

area area area

100 Higashi-ku EST 0.862 0.081 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.042 0.001 0.000 1.000

OBS 0.893 0.012 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.059 0.000 0.000 1.000

200 Hakata-ku EST 0.044 0.786 0.055 0.050 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.057 0.005 0.000 0.000 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.644 0.078 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.127 0.057 0.000 0.000 1.000

300 Chuo-ku EST 0.003 0.063 0.827 0.019 0.001 0.069 0.017 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.012 0.863 0.041 0.000 0.036 0.048 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

400 Minami-ku EST 0.002 0.062 0.059 0.818 0.001 0.033 0.002 0.023 0.001 0.000 0.000 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.000 0.049 0.848 0.004 0.057 0.000 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

500 Nishi-ku EST 0.005 0.013 0.015 0.007 0.820 0.009 0.087 0.004 0.003 0.000 0.037 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.948 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.009 1.000

N. Satani et al.

600 Jonan-ku EST 0.001 0.006 0.128 0.043 0.002 0.781 0.037 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.000 0.142 0.000 0.000 0.744 0.115 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

700 Sawara-ku EST 0.002 0.008 0.027 0.006 0.029 0.029 0.895 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.000 0.079 0.008 0.045 0.071 0.797 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Chikushi EST 0.002 0.071 0.012 0.144 0.001 0.004 0.002 0.762 0.002 0.000 0.000 1.000

area OBS 0.000 0.021 0.020 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.934 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Kasuya EST 0.143 0.030 0.010 0.007 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.017 0.767 0.019 0.000 1.000

area OBS 0.058 0.037 0.024 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.853 0.018 0.000 1.000

Munakata EST 0.014 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.084 0.887 0.000 1.000

area OBS 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.885 0.000 1.000

Itoshima EST 0.007 0.016 0.016 0.009 0.085 0.007 0.018 0.006 0.005 0.001 0.830 1.000

area OBS 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.255 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.726 1.000

Table 5. Comparison of the Observed and Estimated Values (Shopping Goods)

Origin Destination 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Sum

No. Name Higashi-ku Hakata-ku Chuo-ku Minami-ku Nishi-ku Jonan-ku Sawara-ku Chikushi Kasuya Munakata Itoshima

area area area area

100 Higashi-ku EST 0.263 0.092 0.391 0.025 0.019 0.008 0.034 0.064 0.074 0.023 0.007 1.000

OBS 0.222 0.101 0.614 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.005 0.051 0.000 0.000 1.000

200 Hakata-ku EST 0.028 0.215 0.557 0.036 0.011 0.006 0.024 0.099 0.018 0.004 0.003 1.000

OBS 0.012 0.193 0.602 0.032 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.138 0.019 0.000 0.000 1.000

300 Chuo-ku EST 0.012 0.057 0.770 0.028 0.014 0.016 0.057 0.033 0.008 0.003 0.003 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.022 0.890 0.016 0.000 0.008 0.063 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

400 Minami-ku EST 0.019 0.089 0.482 0.173 0.019 0.022 0.037 0.131 0.017 0.006 0.005 1.000

OBS 0.008 0.036 0.751 0.171 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

500 Nishi-ku EST 0.026 0.057 0.362 0.028 0.241 0.017 0.118 0.071 0.023 0.012 0.045 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.026 0.589 0.007 0.184 0.000 0.183 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 1.000

600 Jonan-ku EST 0.019 0.059 0.474 0.058 0.043 0.130 0.118 0.069 0.016 0.006 0.008 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.010 0.756 0.019 0.000 0.072 0.143 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

700 Sawara-ku EST 0.020 0.052 0.382 0.031 0.101 0.031 0.285 0.062 0.017 0.007 0.012 1.000

OBS 0.000 0.005 0.496 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.486 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Commercial Facility Location Model

Chikushi EST 0.015 0.072 0.230 0.042 0.013 0.008 0.023 0.568 0.019 0.006 0.005 1.000

area OBS 0.000 0.038 0.637 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.313 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Kasuya EST 0.090 0.084 0.351 0.030 0.022 0.009 0.038 0.127 0.204 0.037 0.009 1.000

area OBS 0.020 0.099 0.524 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.022 0.330 0.006 0.000 1.000

Munakata EST 0.059 0.054 0.260 0.025 0.026 0.009 0.037 0.083 0.125 0.307 0.014 1.000

area OBS 0.000 0.082 0.397 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.108 0.413 0.000 1.000

Itoshima EST 0.030 0.055 0.310 0.029 0.085 0.014 0.066 0.083 0.029 0.017 0.283 1.000

area OBS 0.000 0.038 0.536 0.000 0.100 0.000 0.077 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.249 1.000

231

232 N. Satani et al.

1=2

1 2

' ij Tij ODij : 12

n

The results are shown in Table 3. For convenience goods, it was estimated that l was

1.05, k was 3.57, and a was 1.53. For shopping goods, it was estimated that l was 1.49, k

was 1.41, and a was 1.01. The comparison of the observed and estimated values is shown in

Table 4 (for convenience goods) and Table 5 (for shopping goods).

The data reveals a large gap between both values for Jonan-ku. The purchasing ratio for

convenience goods in the same district is high, about 80%. For shopping goods, the ratio is

very high in Chuo-ku, and lower in other districts. Two points can be made on the basis of

these results. Firstly, convenience-goods shopping is extremely attenuated as the distance

increases. Secondly, as the sales floor area accumulates, shopping goods purchases are

attracted into a district.

Parameters for the Multiple Regression Analysis. The a1, ak, and a0 parameter in Eq. (6a)

must also be estimated. As mentioned previously, four district ranks were defined.

Multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the parameters for each rank. The

analysis was done three times, using data for 1988, 1991, and 1994. The results for 1994

were found to be best. The parameters and the multiple correlation coefficients for each

rank are shown in Table 6. The multiple regression models were found to be very effective.

The original unit was used to estimate the sales floor area from the employees' data as

described previously. Changes to this value can now be determined on the basis of data for

Fukuoka City. Figure 7 shows the changes to the original unit from 1985 to 1994 for each

type of location. According to this figure, the original unit for the CBD and Sub Center

show a tendency to get smaller. On the other hand, it shows a tendency to get larger for the

other location types. The original unit has a very small value in the water front. This may

reflect the fact that there are not many retail facilities there, and most of them are small

stores handling food and drink. However, we think that these trends will generally

continue until the near future.

Estimation of parameters

Type Rank a1 a2 a3 a0

Subcenter 0.00155 0.00418 0.03851 0.81610 0.89663

District 0.00158 0.00443 70.00644 1.38321 0.68712

Neighborhood 0.12287 0.00786 0.09726 0.96526

Shopping CBD 0.00663 0.09620 5.23050 1.00000

Subcenter 0.01440 0.01985 71.04473 0.83922

District 0.00650 0.03797 0.27011 0.94414

Neighborhood 0.06480 0.01116 0.03448 0.91584

Commercial Facility Location Model 233

It is now time to consider how well the derived parameters and estimated values replicate

reality. To do this, the observed and estimated values for the 1991 employment were

compared. Figure 8 shows the correlation between the observed and estimated values. The

coefficient of determination is 0.9946 which indicates that the model does a very good job

of replicating the observed values.

Estimating the Sales Floor Area. The sales floor area in 1995 were then estimated by

applying the Modified Huff Model and the multiple regression analysis to the estimated

234 N. Satani et al.

population for this period according to steps shown in Figure 2. The value was then

estimated by applying the checks on the permissible value. The sales floor areas were then

projected to the year 2010 at five years intervals from 1995.

Modified Huff Model. Table 7 shows the estimated values for the Modified Huff Model.

The observed values for Fukuoka City in 1994, were 374,693 m2 for convenience goods,

954,205 m2 for shopping goods, for a total of 1,328,898 m2. The projected values for 2010

were 527,366 m2 for convenience goods, 1,337,324 m2 for shopping goods, and 1,864,690

Hakata-ku 73,383 189,186 262,569 97,858 242,458 340,326

Chuo-ku 59,714 306,867 366,581 77,292 469,998 547,290

Minami-ku 60,771 106,980 167,751 77,944 131,340 209,284

Nishi-ku 39,229 70,351 109,580 63,666 118,311 181,977

Jonan-ku 33,027 45,710 78,737 43,983 57,899 101,882

Sawara-ku 46,357 120,077 166,434 71,111 154,220 225,330

Sub Total in Fukuoka City 374,693 954,205 1,328,898 527,366 1,337,324 1,864,690

Chikushi Area 87,753 223,384 311,137 128,446 356,593 485,039

Kasuya Area 60,358 154,196 214,554 92,381 239,311 331,692

Munakata Area 34,312 89,140 119,452 53,284 136,376 189,660

Itoshima Area 23,957 47,344 71,301 52,160 70,191 122,351

Sub Total around Fukuoka City 206,380 510,064 716,444 326,271 802,471 1,128,742

Total in Fukuoka Urban Area 581,073 1,464,269 2,045,342 853,637 2,139,795 2,993,432

Hakata-ku 73,383 189,186 262,569 85,380 220,880 306,260

Chuo-ku 59,714 306,867 366,581 106,838 437,510 544,348

Minami-ku 60,771 106,980 167,751 78,373 119,928 198,301

Nishi-ku 39,229 70,351 109,580 52,529 115,018 167,547

Jonan-ku 33,027 45,710 78,737 41,950 59,578 101,528

Sawara-ku 46,357 120,077 166,434 79,697 157,186 236,883

Sub Total in Fukuoka City 374,693 954,209 1,328,898 517,183 1,265,202 1,782,385

Chikushi Area 87,793 223,384 311,137 140,019 392,499 532,518

Kasuya Area 60,358 154,196 214,554 88,521 245,460 333,982

Munakata Area 34,312 85,140 119,452 40,204 127,127 167,331

Itoshima Area 23,957 47,344 71,301 25,776 55,502 81,277

Sub Total around Fukuoka City 206,380 510,064 716,444 294,521 820,587 1,115,108

Total in Fukuoka Urban Area 581,073 1,464,269 2,045,342 811,704 2,085,789 2,897,493

Commercial Facility Location Model 235

m2 for the total. Increases of about 15 ha for convenience goods, about 38 ha for shopping

goods, or a total of about 53 ha are expected.

The observed values in the neighborhood of Fukuoka City for 1994 are 206,380 m2 for

convenience goods, 510,064 m2 for shopping goods, for a total of 716,444 m2. The

projected values for 2010 are 326,271 m2 for convenience goods, 802,471 m2 for shopping

goods, and 1,128,742 m2 for the total. Increases of about 12 ha for convenience goods,

about 29 ha for shopping goods, or a total of about 41 ha are expected.

An increase of about 94 ha is expected for the entire Fukuoka metropolitan area. This is

a larger value than was obtained by using Multiple Regression Analysis, which suggests

that it is an upper limit. It is expected that an increase of the sales floor area in Fukuoka

City is larger than it is around the city. As was mentioned above, the value obtained by the

Modified Huff Model was relatively low near the border of the study area.

Multiple Regression Analysis. Table 8 shows the estimated values for the multiple

regression analysis. The estimated values for Fukuoka City 2010, were 517,183 m2 for

236 N. Satani et al.

convenience goods, 1,265,202 m2 for shopping goods, for a total of 1,782,385 m2. Increases

of about 14 ha for convenience goods, about 31 ha for shopping goods, and about 45 ha

for the total are expected. The projected values for 2010 in the neighborhood of Fukuoka

City were 294,521 m2 for convenience goods, 820,587 m2 for shopping goods, for a total of

1,115,108 m2. Increases of about 9 ha for convenience goods, about 31 ha for shopping

goods, and about 40 ha for the total are expected.

A total increase of about 85 ha is expected for the entire Fukuoka metropolitan area. It

is expected that the increase of the shopping floor area outside Fukuoka City is almost the

same as within the city. This shows a drastic increase in the shopping floor area in the

suburbs.

Commercial Facility Location Model 237

Trends in the distribution of the floor area will now be examined by considering the

estimated values from the Modified Huff Model.

The observed shopping area value for convenience shopping in 1994 is shown in Figure

9. This figure indicates that there are high values in and near the CBD and that the figure

decreases as one moves away from the CBD. The projected value for 2010 is shown in

Figure 10. Compared to 1994, a high density district appears in Chuo-ku and a part of

Jonan-ku and Sawara-ku. Furthermore, there are a few high density districts in the south-

east such as Kasuga City.

The growth rate from 1994 to 2010 is shown in Figure 11. In Fukuoka City, districts

with high growth rates over 60% are expected to be found in the south-east and the south-

west, 5 km away from the CBD. This high growth rate probably results from the opening

of the new subway. However, it is more remarkable that high growth districts are also

found around Fukuoka City such as in Kasuya Town, Shime Town, Sue Town, Kasuga

238 N. Satani et al.

City, and Onojo City. They are districts whose population increases in recent years make

them attractive for convenience shopping.

The observed shopping area values for shopping goods are shown in Figure 12. This

figure indicates that there are high density shopping districts near the border between

Chuo-ku and Hakata-ku; however, most of them are in Fukuoka City. These districts are

dispersed than those for the convenient goods.

The projected values for 2010 are shown in Figure 13. This figure indicates that Kasuga

City has a high shopping density as was the case for convenience goods. The high density

area extends to the north-east area of Koga town and Shingu town.

The growth rate from 1994 to 2010 is shown in Figure 14. This figure indicates the

districts in which the growth rate would increase the most and are located far from the

CBD. Compared to the convenience goods, there are high growth districts in more distant

areas such as Dazifu city and Chikushino City.

Commercial Facility Location Model 239

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a simulation model for studying radical changes in the location of

retail facilities and applied the model to the Fukuoka metropolitan area. The study results

suggest the following five conclusions. First, the Modified Huff Model can be used to

estimate the number of employees by assuming that the number of employees is in

proportion to the number of inhabitants who go shopping in a district. Second, multiple

regression analysis can be used to estimate the number of employees by assuming that the

number of employees is proportional to the population in a district and neighboring

districts, and inversely proportional to the time distance between the districts. Third, the

estimated parameters for each retail type can be used to estimate location trends for each

type of retail good. Fourth, the results of the application to the Fukuoka metropolitan

area indicate that the model has high validity. Finally, the model results for 2010 suggested

that the demand for retail facilities will increase substantially in the suburbs.

240 N. Satani et al.

REFERENCES

Hagishima, S., Kurose, S., & Mitsuyoshi, K. (1987). Estimation of pedestrian shopping trips in a neighborhood by

using a spatial interaction model. Environment and Planning A, 19, 11391152.

Harris, B., & Wilson, A. G. (1978). Equilibrium values and dynamics of attractiveness terms in production-

constrained spatial-interaction models. Environment and Planning A, 10, 371188.

Huff, D. L. (1963). A probabilistic analysis of shopping center trade areas. Journal of Land Economics, 39, 8190.

Kim, J. Y., Hagishima, S., & Ohagai, A. (1991). Development of a land-use forecast model by mesh data: An

application to Fukuoka City. Proceedings of Second International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning

and Urban Management (pp. 323345).

Lakshumanan, T. R., & Hansen, W. G. (1965). A retail market potential model. Journal of American Institute of

Planners, 31, 134143.

Reilly, W. J. (1931). The law of retail gravitation. New York: Putman and Sons.

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