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1 PROPOSED RESEARCH QUESTION


The proposed research question of this research is,
By incorporating weather and environmental risk factors, can a context-specific personalized
Infectious Disease risk be accurately predicted with a system that combines both data and
knowledge which is easily extensible to the further additions and changes?
The research question above has two sub-questions (SQs) which are explained as followed:
SQ1. Can we properly* predict Infectious Diseases risk by taking personal attributes as risk
factors and environmental factors as contexts, using a generated prediction model that
encodes epidemiological knowledge.

This can be aimed by letting the generated prediction model process the selected contexts and
inputted personal attributes for an Infectious Disease risk. The selected contexts will choose
some relevant predictors and set the minimum threshold for each predictor. The inputted
attributes will set the known facts for the related predictors. Both will allow the generated
prediction model, Bayesian Network, to properly predict a risk. Various inputs and contexts
will be tested to verify whether the results are having the consistent ratio with the
epidemiological knowledge.
(This will be happened in the context collector tool and BN)

SQ2. Can we incorporate the declarative epidemiological knowledge and specific-formatted


tabular data, aggregated from chosen+ eligible sources, to keep the Infectious Disease risk
prediction model up to date?

The declarative form of the risk knowledge will be presented in a knowledge model, for both
structure and properties (I refer to rules). The knowledge model, Ontology, will be the main
reference model of the BN structure. Beside the Ontology, the BN needs some datasets to
populate each CPT. The datasets will be divided into two types, the one that supplies marginal
probability, and one for joint probability. The joint probability datasets will adjust specific
properties of the knowledge model, while the marginal probability datasets will be used as part
of BN creation. An automatic process that convert the Ontology, along with the aggregated
datasets, into an equivalent BN will be the main contribution of this thesis.

* properness is measured by
- testing various combination of personal attributes
- testing various context (weather, country and location features)
Both results should have a consistent ratio with the inputs (knowledge and data)

+ chosen by context, for example for taking Indonesia datasets, it will retrieve from InfoDatin website,
while for taking Ireland datasets, it will retrieve from HPSC website.