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ON

REGRESSION

ANALYSIS

[IMBA]

PRESENTED

BY

NAME: - D.SRIKANTH

INTRODUCATION:-

Trevor Bull - Managing Director

Mr. Trevor Bull joined Tata AIG Life as Managing Director in

January 2006. Prior to this, Trevor was Senior Vice President and

General Manager at American International Assurance in Korea

Tata AIG General Insurance Company Ltd. (collectively "Tata

AIG") are joint venture companies, formed from the Tata Group

and American International Group, Inc. (AIG). Tata AIG

combines the power and integrity of the Tata Group with AIG's

international expertise and financial strength. Tata Group holds

74 per cent stake in the two insurance ventures, with AIG

holding the balance 26 per cent stake.

insurance solutions to individuals and corporate. Tata AI G Life

Insurance Company was licensed to operate in India on February 12,

2001 and started operations on April, 2001. Tata AIG Life offers a

broad array of life insurance coverage to both individuals and

groups, providing various types of add-ons and options on basic life

products to give consumers flexibility and choice.

in Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chandigarh, Chennai, Guwhati,

Hyderabad, Jaipur, Jamshedpur, Jodhpur, Kochi, Kolkata, Mangalore,

Muinbai, New Delhi, Pune, Rajkot, Trichi, - Vijay Wada and Lucknow

The objective of this study is to

measure the regression analysis method used by TATA AIG in

the city of Hyderabad.

Questionnaire Development

developed. In this stage, an exploratory study was carried

out using personal and focus group interviews

Collection of Data

The above mentioned questionnaire

was used to collect the primary data. For secondary data,

research papers, journals and magazines were referred.

Regression analysis

for techniques for the modeling and analysis of numerical data

consisting of values of a dependent variable (also called response

variable or measurement) and of one or more independent variables

(also known as explanatory variables or predictors). The dependent

variable in the regression equation is modeled as a function of the

independent variables, corresponding parameters ("constants"), and an

error term.

represents unexplained variation in the dependent variable. The

parameters are estimated so as to give a "best fit" of the data. Most

commonly the best fit is evaluated by using the least squares method,

but other criteria have also been used.

forecasting of time-series data), inference, hypothesis testing, and

modeling of causal relationships. These uses of regression rely heavily

on the underlying assumptions being satisfied. Regression analysis has

been criticized as being misused for these purposes in many cases

where the appropriate assumptions cannot be verified to hold. One

factor contributing to the misuse of regression is that it can take

considerably more skill to critique a model than to fit a model

Underlying assumptions

Classical assumptions for regression

analysis include:

The sample must be representative of the population for the

inference prediction.

The error is assumed to be a random variable with a mean of zero

conditional on the explanatory variables.

The independent variables are error-free. If this is not so,

modeling may be done using errors-in-variables model

techniques.

The predictors must be linearly independent, i.e. it must not be

possible to express any predictor as a linear combination of the

others. See Multicollinearity.

The errors are uncorrelated, that is, the variance-covariance

matrix of the errors is diagonal and each non-zero element is the

variance of the error.

The variance of the error is constant across observations

(homoscedasticity). If not, weighted least squares or other

methods might be used.

conditions for the least-squares estimator to possess desirable

properties, in particular, these assumptions imply that the parameter

estimates will be unbiased, consistent, and efficient in the class of

linear unbiased estimators. Many of these assumptions may be relaxed

in more advanced treatments.

is termed bi-variate linear Regression Analysis. Regression Analysis

that involves more than two variables is termed as Multiple

Regression Analysis.

The Bi-variate linear Regression Analysis

involves Analyzing the straight line relationship between two continues

variables the Bi-variate linear Regression can be expressed as:

Y=+X

Where,

X is independent

is slope of coefficient

= Yi-Xi

= (Yi-Yj)/ (Xi-XJ)

(OLS) is used to solve over determined systems. Least squares are

often applied in statistical contexts, particularly regression analysis.

Least squares can be interpreted as a method of fitting data. The best fit

in the least-squares sense is that instance of the model for which the

sum of squared residuals has its least value, a residual being the

difference between an observed value and the value given by the

model. The method was first described by Carl Friedrich Gauss around

1794.[1] Least squares correspond to the maximum likelihood criterion

if the experimental errors have a normal distribution and can also be

derived as a method of moments estimator. Regression analysis is

available in most statistical software packages.

month & number of customer visited because of advertisement

given by TATA AIG Life Insurance Co.

The equation for regression line assume by least square is shown below

Y=a+bX+ci

Where,

Y is dependent variable

X is independent variable

a is a Y intersect

b is a slope of line

number of customer visited through advertisement.

SPENT VISITED

(IN CRORES)[X]

JAN 3.6 9.3

FEB 4.8 10.2

MAR 2.4 9.7

APR 7.2 11.5

MAY 6.9 12

JUN 8.4 14.2

JUL 10.7 18.6

AUG 11.2 28.4

SEP 6.1 13.2

OCT 7.9 10.8

NOV 9.5 22.7

DEC 5.4 12.3

X is dependent variable

Y is independent variable

a = -b

Where,

ei= is the error. It is called as residual value.

The criterion for the least squar method is given below.

e2i

i=1

Where

ei = Yi i

Dependent variable

Estimated regression line.

Let a solve the example previously discussed

using the least square method.

develop the regression equation. The required

calculation for determining the constant are shown in

table

AMOUNT N.O OF

2

SPENT CUSTOMERS XY X

ON VISITED

(IN CRORES)[X]

9.5 22.7 215.65 90.25

b = 12(1355.61)-

(84.1)(172.9)/12(670.73)-(84.1)2

= 1.768

The step is to calculate a

To calculate the value of small a we need to first determine the mean

of value of variable X&Y

= 84.1/12

=7.0

= 172.9/12

=14.40

a = 14.40-(1.768)(7)

= 14.40-12.39

= 2.01

substituting the value of a & b in equations

= 2.01+1.768X

for a given value of X

The Strength of Association R2

R2 = explained variance/total variance

Therefore

R2= total variance unexplained variance/total variance

The unexplained variance is given by (Yi ) 2

R2 = 1-(Yi ) 2 / (Yi - ) 2

X Y XY X2 Y- (Y- ) 2 (- (Y-

) 2 ) 2

3.6 9.3 33.48 12.96 8.37 0.925 0.85599 36.30 26.01

48 2 504 304

4.8 10.2 48.96 23.04 10.4 - 0.08785 15.23 17.64

964 0.296 296 809

4

2.4 9.7 23.28 5.76 6.25 3.446 11.8804 66.37 22.09

32 8 3024 035

7.2 11.5 82.8 51.84 14.7 - 10.4950 0.115 8.41

396 3.239 0816 328

6

6.9 12 82.8 47.61 14.2 - 4.88056 0.036 5.76

092 2.209 464 405

2

8.4 14.2 119.28 70.56 16.8 - 7.08198 6.057 0.04

612 2.661 544 505

2

10.7 18.6 199.02 114.49 20.9 - 5.41772 42.60 17.64

276 2.327 176 956

6

11.2 28.4 318.08 125.44 21.8 6.588 43.4070 54.93 196

116 4 1456 181

6.1 13.2 80.52 37.21 12.7 0.405 0.16418 2.576 1.44

948 2 704 667

7.9 10.8 85.32 62.41 15.9 - 26.8033 2.487 12.96

772 5.177 9984 56

2

9.5 22.7 215.65 90.25 18.8 3.894 15.1632 19.41 68.89

06 36 284

5.4 12.3 66.42 29.16 11.5 0.786 0.61779 8.328 4.41

14 6 996

x= Y= XY=1 XY=1 (Y- (Y-

84.1 172. 355.61 355.61 ) 2 (- ) 2

9 ) 2 =38

=126. 1.29

=7. 855 =25

0 =14. 4.4

40 682

Therefore

R2 = 1- (Yi ) 2 / (Yi - ) 2

= 1- 126.885/381.29

= 1- 0.33

= 0.67

= 67%

Conclusion

This implies that of the total variation of Y, nearly 67% is

explain by the variation in X.

variables.

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