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78 Bankarstvo 1 2015

pregledni UDK 06.068NOBEL::005.311.7"2012"


nauni 005.311.7Elvin E. Rot

lanak
Elvin E. Rot
Nobelova nagrada za 2012.

TEORIJA
STABILNIH
Svetlana Panteli
Udruenje banaka Srbije
svetlana.pantelic@ubs-asb.com

RASPOREDA II

Rezime

vedska Kraljevska akademija nauka dodelila je u 2012. godini Nobelovu


nagradu za ekonomiju Lojdu epliju i Elvinu Rotu za teoriju stabilnih raspodela
i praksu trinog dizajna. Ova dvojica amerikih istraivaa radila su nezavisno
jedan od drugog kombinujui osnovnu teoriju i empirijska istraivanja, i uz
eksperimente i praktian dizajn doprineli su izuzetnom razvoju ovog polja
istraivanja i unapredili performanse mnogih trita. epli je dao poetni
teoretski doprinos ovom polju istraivanja, a Elvin Rot ga je razvio, unapredio
i u praksi sproveo. Njihova istraivanja pomau u objanjavanju trinih
procesa, na primer pri radu na raspodeli lekara u bolnice, uenika u kole i
ljudskih organa za transplantaciju pacijentima.

Kljune rei: vedska Kraljevska akademija, 2012. godina, Nobelova nagrada


za ekonomiju, Lojd epli, Elvin Rot, teorija stabilnih raspodela, istraivanje,
praktian dizajn, teorija igara

JEL: B31, C71, C78

Rad primljen: 24.03.2015.

Odobren za tampu: 27.03.2015.


Bankarstvo 1 2015 79

UDC 06.068NOBEL::005.311.7"2012" scientific


005.311.7Elvin E. Rot
review
article
Alvin E. Roth
Nobel Prize for 2012

THEORY
OF STABLE
Svetlana Panteli
Association of Serbian Banks
svetlana.pantelic@ubs-asb.com

ALLOCATIONS II

Summary

The Swedish Royal Academy awarded the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics to
Lloyd Shapley and Alvin Roth, for the theory of stable allocations and the practice
of market design. These two American researchers worked independently from
each other, combining basic theory and empirical investigations. Through
their experiments and practical design they generated a flourishing field of
research and improved the performance of many markets. Shapley provided
the fundamental theoretical contribution to this field of research, whereas Roth,
a professor at the Harvard University in Boston, developed and upgraded these
theoretical investigations by applying them to the American market of medical
doctors. Namely, their research helps explain the market processes at work,
for instance, when doctors are assigned to hospitals, students to schools and
human organs for transplant to recipients.

Keywords: Swedish Royal Academy, 2012, Nobel Prize in Economics, Lloyd


Shapley, Alvin Roth, theory of stable allocations, research, practical design,
game theory.

JEL: B31, C71, C78

Paper received: 24.03.2015

Approved for publishing: 27.03.2015


80 Bankarstvo 1 2015

vedska Kraljevska akademija nauka algoritam, do sada spaeno na hiljade ivota,


dodelila je u 2012. godini Nobelovu a samo 2008. godine est ivota estostranom
nagradu za ekonomiju Lojdu epliju razmenom odgovarajuih organa.
i Elvinu Rotu za teoriju stabilnih raspodela Rotova Nobelova nagrada primer je
i praksu trinog dizajna. epli, profesor jednakog vrednovanja struke koja ekonomsku
emeritus na Univerzitetu Kalifornija u Los nauku oplemenjuje novim teorijama, ali i one
Anelesu (UCLA), dao je poetni teoretski koja je teorijama nala svakodnevnu primenu
doprinos ovom polju istraivanja, a Elvin Rot ga menjajui ivot na bolje. Njegova nagrada
je razvio, unapredio i u praksi sproveo. Njihova se moe razumeti i kao ulazak bihevioralne
istraivanja pomau u objanjavanju trinih i eksperimentalne ekonomije u osnove
procesa, na primer pri radu na raspodeli lekara ekonomske nauke, kao putokaz u kojim
u bolnice, uenika u kole i ljudskih organa za pravcima ova disciplina treba da se razvija.
transplantaciju pacijentima. Elvin Rot se rodio 18. decembra 1951. godine
epli i Rot su etvrta grupa ekonomista u Njujorku, SAD. Njegovi roditelji, Lilijan i
koja je dobila Nobelovu nagradu na temelju Ernest, bili su nastavnici u srednjoj koli. Dva
iztraivanja unutar teorije igara. Pre njih ovu su osnovna motiva, kako navodi Elvin u svojoj
nagradu dobili su: 1994. godine Ne, Harsani autobiografiji povodom Nobelove nagrade,
i Selten; 2005. godine Ojman i eling i 2007. koja su bila kljuna u njegovom izboru profesije
godine Hurvic, Maskin i Majerson. Oigledno, kojom e se u ivotu baviti: lansiranje amerikog
teorija igara postala je jedna od najtrofejnijih satelita 1958. godine, koje je s panjom pratio na
grana ekonomije, zajedno sa finansijama radiju, na asu u razredu i stav njegovog starijeg
i makroekonomijom, ali ih prevazilazi brata Teda da je nauka najbolja za njegovu
svojom sveprisutnou i moima koje nude buduu karijeru. Zbog toga je i bio veoma srean
njeni analitiki alati. Ova dvojica amerikih to je mogao da prati Teda koji je pohaao kurs
istraivaa radila su nezavisno jedan od drugog o nauci na Kolumbija univerzitetu namenjen
kombinujui osnovnu teoriju i empirijska srednjokolcima. Elvin se pokazao izuzetno
istraivanja, i uz eksperimente i praktian uspenim na ovom kursu te se 1968. godine,
dizajn doprineli su izuzetnom razvoju polja iako nije zavrio srednju kolu, sa 16 godina,
istraivanja i unapredili performanse mnogih upisuje na Kolumbija univerzitet, u kolu za
trita (Panteli, 2014, str. 112). inenjerstvo i primenjene nauke.
Po vokaciji ekonomista koji svoj nauni Nakon diplomiranja 1971. godine prelazi na
rad zasniva na eksperimentima, Rot je Stenford univerzitet gde e magistrirati 1973. i
iskoristio kljuna naela u teoriji igara kako bi doktorirati 1974. godine. U narednim godinama
dizajnirao trita na kojima cena nije alokativni radio je na vie univerziteta: Ilinois (1974-82),
mehanizam. Pitsburg (1982-
D o b a r 98), Harvard
primer toga (1998-2012)
je uparivanje i Stenford
donora i (2012). Na ovim
pacijenta kada univerzitetima
je potrebna saraivao je
transplantacija sa brojnim
bubrega sa znanim i nama
idejom da se neznanim
za to vie istraivaima
bolesnika iz ekonomske,
nau novi matematike
organi. Tako i psiholoke
je, zahvaljujui struke i sa
Rotu i uz njima uradio
e p l i j e v niz znaajnih
Bankarstvo 1 2015 81

T
he Swedish Royal Academy awarded of recognition for the profession which has
the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics to enriched economic science with new theories,
Lloyd Shapley and Alvin Roth, for the and which has found the way to apply theories
theory of stable allocations and the practice of in everyday life, changing it for the better. His
market design. Shapley, a professor emeritus prize can also be understood as the entry of
at the University of California in Los Angeles behavioral and experimental economics into
(UCLA), provided the fundamental theoretical the rudiments of economic science, indicating
contribution to this field of research, whereas the directions in which this discipline should
Roth, a professor at the Harvard University continue to develop.
in Boston, developed and upgraded these Alvin Roth was born on 18 December 1951 in
theoretical investigations by applying them New York, USA. His parents, Lillian and Ernest,
to the American market of medical doctors. were high school teachers. As Alvin states in his
Namely, their research helps explain the market autobiography written to mark his winning of
processes at work, for instance, when doctors the Nobel Prize, there were two basic motives
are assigned to hospitals, students to schools that determined the choice of profession he
and human organs for transplant to recipients. was to entertain his entire life: i.e. the launch
Shapley and Roth are the fourth group of of an American satellite in 1958, whose radio
economists who won the Nobel Prize based on broadcast he eagerly followed while sitting in
their research in the field of game theory. Before class, and the opinion of his elder brother Ted
them, the Prize was awarded to: Nash, Harsanyi that science could be his future career. This is
and Selten in 1994; Aumann and Schelling in why he considered himself fortunate to be able
2005; and Hurwicz, Maskin and Myerson in to follow Ted in attending the Science Honors
2007. Evidently, game theory has become one Program at Columbia University, targeted at
of the most rewarded branches of economy high school students. Alvin turned out to be
alongside finance and macroeconomics, which extremely successful at this course, hence in
she surpasses owing to its comprehensiveness 1968, when he was 16, without having graduated
and powers enabled by its analytical tools. from high school, he entered Columbias School
These two American researchers worked of Engineering and Applied Sciences.
independently from each other, combining basic Upon graduation, in 1971 he moved to
theory and empirical investigations. Through Stanford University where he gained his
their experiments and practical design they master degree in 1973 and his PhD in 1974.
generated a flourishing field of research and In the subsequent years he worked at several
improved the performance of many markets universities: Illinois (1974-1982), Pittsburgh
(Panteli, 2014, p. 112). (1982-1998), Harvard (1998-2012), and Stanford
Economist by vocation, Roth, whose (2012-). At these universities he cooperated
scientific work was based on
experiments, used the key
principles of game theory to
design markets on which the price
was not an allocation mechanism.
A good example is the matching
of donors and patients needing a
kidney transplant, with the goal
of finding new organs for as many
patients as possible. Thus, thanks
to Roth and Shapleys algorithm,
thousands of lives have been
saved, and only in 2008 six lives
owing to a six-party exchange of Elvin E. Rot prima Nobelovu nagradu od vedskog kralja Karla XVI Gustava u
Stokholmskoj koncertnoj dvorani, 10. decembra 2012. godine
suitable organs.
Alvin E. Roth receiving his Prize from His Majesty King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden at the
Roths Nobel Prize is an act Stockholm Concert Hall, 10 December 2012
82 Bankarstvo 1 2015

reenje problema utvrivanja ishoda kada


dve osobe pregovaraju. Sa Kitom, kolegom
Fransoa oumejkerom i svojim studentom
Majkom Malufom razvio je neke aspekte
eksperimentalnog dizajna, kao to su binarna
lutrija igara i verovatnoa ponavljanja igara,
koji se i danas koriste.
Na univerzitetu Ilinois poeo je da predaje
teoriju igara. Kako bi bolje razumeo ovu oblast,
istraivao je radove o Neovom reenju i set
radova o eplijevim vrednostima. Shvatio je
da neke aksiome ne moe da objasni svojim
studentima te je poeo da pie radove u kojima
je istraivao ideju formalizovanja eplijeve
vrednosti kao korisne funkcije igara. Ta
odluka ga je motivisala da se okrene i novim
istraivanjima.
Zajedno sa Endijem Postlvejtom, novim
asistentom na Ilinoisu, 1974. godine istraivao
eksperimenata i napisao samostalno ili sa je strukturu jezgra, ukoliko su preferencije
saradnicima mnogobrojne radove. igraa poznate. Taj pristup je karakterisao
Dok je pohaao poslediplomske studije neto to se tada zvalo kooperativna teorija
odluio je da istrauje teoriju igara posle igara. U ovom periodu bavio se uparivanjem
predavanja gostujueg profesora Majkla donora i pacijenata. Predavanja koja je drao
Malera sa Hebrejskog univerziteta u
Jerusalimu. Njegov savetnik, prijatelj i podrka
da se u radu ne demotivie bio je Bob Vilson
iji su radovi u tom periodu bili veoma Najpoznatiji radovi
popularni. Elvin je odlazio u biblioteku i itao
njegove radove, a jedan od tih mu je pomogao 1. Rot, Elvin E. (1979). Aksiomatski modeli
u pripremi disertacije koja se odnosila na tada pregovaranja, Beleke sa predavanja o
popularan model igara sa transferom korisnosti ekonomskim i matematikim sistemima.
i na istraivanje utvrenih setova moguih Springer Verlag.
ishoda koji su Nojman i Morgenstern predloili 2. Rot, Elvin E. (1985). Problem prijema na
kao soluciju takvih igara. koled nije ekvivalentan problemu sklapanja
Rotov prvi posao bio je na Ilinois univerzitetu braka. urnal za ekonomsku teoriju 36 (2):
po pozivu Bila Zangvila koji je napravio 277288.
grupu za operativno istraivanje u Biznis 3. Rot, Elvin E. (1995). Prirunik eksperimentalne
koli. Pre odlaska za Ilinois posetio je Oskara ekonomije. Urednik sa J. H. Kagelom.
Morgensterna na Njujorkom univerzitetu Princeton University Press.
kako bi ga obavestio o svojim dosadanjim 4. Erev, I.; Rot, Elvin E. (1998). Predvianje
istraivanjima i radu na Nojman-Morgenstern metoda koje ljudi koriste prilikom igranja
reenju. U sledee tri godine posetio ga je vie igara: Uenje jaanja kroz eksperimentalne
puta. Voleo je da s njim vodi obine razgovore igre sa jedinstvenim ekvilibrijumima
o ljudima, ali je tada esto govorio i o onome meovitih strategija. Ameriki ekonomski
to trenutno radi: Tada sam se oseao kao pregled 88 (4): 848881.
Kolumbo koji kraljici Izabeli podnosi raport 5. Rot, Elvin E.; Peranson, E. (1999).
koja su ostrva pronaena u njeno ime! Redizajniranje trita uparivanja amerikih
Sa kolegom psihologom Kitom Murnganom lekara: neki inenjerski aspekti ekonomskog
napisao je desetine radova istraujui razliite dizajna. Ameriki ekonomski pregled 89 (4):
aspekte teorije igara, ukljuujui Neovo 748780.
Bankarstvo 1 2015 83

with numerous known and less


known researchers in the field
of economics, mathematics and
psychology, with whom he
conducted a series of significant
experiments, and wrote many
papers, either independently or
with his associates.
During his postgraduate
studies he decided to do research
in game theory after taking a
class from Michael Maschler,
a visiting professor from the
Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
His advisor and friend, who had proposed as solutions of such games.
encouraged him when he was about to lose Roths first job was at the University of
motivation, was Bob Wilson, whose papers Illinois, after a phone call from Bill Zangwill,
were quite popular at that time. Alvin would who was putting together an operations research
go to the library and read his papers, one of group in the business school. Before leaving for
which in particular helped him prepare his Illinois, Roth visited Oscar Morgenstern at New
dissertation, which concerned the then popular York University to tell him about the research
models of games with transferable utility, he conducted until then, and his work on von
and the exploration of stable sets of potential Neumann-Morgenstern solutions. Over the
outcomes that von Neumann and Morgenstern next three years, he visited him several more
times. They loved to reminisce about people,
and they would often discuss what Roth was
currently working on: I sometimes felt a little
Most Important Works like Columbus reporting back to Queen Isabella
about the new lands that had been discovered
1. Roth, Alvin E. (1979). Axiomatic Models of in her name!
Bargaining, Lecture Notes in Economics and Together with his colleague, psychologist
Mathematical Systems. Springer Verlag. Keith Murnighan, he wrote dozens of papers
2. Roth, Alvin E. (1985). "The College exploring various aspects of game theory,
Admissions Problem is not Equivalent to including Nashs solution to the problem
the Marriage Problem". Journal of Economic of determining the outcome of two-person
Theory 36 (2): 277288. bargaining. With Keith, his colleague Francoise
3. Roth, Alvin E. (1995). Handbook of Schoumaker, and his graduate student Mike
Experimental Economics. Edited with J.H. Malouf, he developed some experimental
Kagel. Princeton University Press. designs, such as binary lottery games or
4. Erev, I.; Roth, Alvin E. (1998). "Predicting probabilistically terminated repeated games,
How People Play Games: Reinforcement which remain in use today.
Learning in Experimental Games with At the University of Illinois he started
Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria". teaching game theory. In order to understand
American Economic Review 88 (4): 848881. this field better, he examined the papers about
5. Roth, Alvin E.; Peranson, E. (1999). "The Nashs solution, and a set of papers about the
Redesign of the Matching Market for Shapley value. He realized that he could not
American Physicians: Some Engineering convincingly explain some of the axioms to his
Aspects of Economic Design". American students, hence he ended up writing papers in
Economic Review 89 (4): 748780. which he explored the idea of formalizing the
Shapley value as a utility function for playing
a game. This decision motivated him to turn to
84 Bankarstvo 1 2015

kao gostujui predava na Stenfordu 1978. Iz Pitsburga se 1998. godine seli u Boston
godine nala su se potom u njegovoj prvoj knjizi kako bi poeo da radi na Harvardskom
Aksiomatski modeli pregovaranja. univerzitetu. Priznanje u obliku Nobelove
Nakon venanja sa Emili sa kojom ima dva nagrade dobio je radei na ovom fakultetu.
sina, Arona i Bena, iz Univerziteta Ilinois odlazi Osim ovog priznanja dobio je 1990. godine i
1982. godine na Univerzitet Pitsburg. Teorija nagradu Frederik V. Lenester. Nakon 14
igara je ve bila uveliko poznata, ali jo nije bila godina provedenih na Harvardu sa suprugom
uspea u segmentu operativnog istraivanja. se seli u Kaliforniju i zapoljava na Stenford
Zajedno sa novim saradnicima kree u dalja univerzitetu.
istraivanja na modifikovanju algoritama za Interesantno je navesti ta je za Rota bilo
poboljanje sistema radi uparivanja diplomaca najlepe kada je dobio Nobelovu nagradu:
medicinskih kola sa potrebama bolnica. Sa Nagrada je veoma poznata i vana, ali najlepi
svojom studentkinjom Saolin Sing napisao je deo toga bili su mejlovi mojih prijatelja sa
rad u kome se to dokumentuje na desetinama kojima nisam bio u kontaktu jo od detinjstva.
razliitih trita. Postalo je tada jasno da Osim to sam dobio brojne estitke povodom
tajming igra vanu ulogu u razumevanju toga Nobelove nagrade, ona mi je donela jo jedno
kako trita i radna mesta funkcioniu. Njegov neoekivano, ali veoma vano priznanje -
tim 2003. godine primenjuje slino reenje Japanska karate asocijacija promovisala me je
izbora odgovarajuih studenata srednjih kola u poasnog lana crnog pojasa sedmi dan.
u Njujorku, gde je na poziv Deremija Leka
sa njujorkog odseka za edukaciju dizajnirao
sistem izbora kola. Tada je pokrenuto i
kreiranje sistema uparivanja adekvatnih donora
za odgovarajue pacijente.

Literatura / References

1. "Alvin E. Roth - Biographical". Nobelprize.org.


Nobel Media AB 2014. Web. 2 Dec 2014. <http://
www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-
sciences/laureates/2012/roth-bio.html>
2. Amerikancima Nobelova nagrada za
ekonomiju, Novi magazin, 15.10.2012.
3. Jednostavno objanjenje zato su Rot i
epli dobili Nobela za ekonomiju, Biznis i
finansije, 17.10.2012.
4. Noel Irwin: Nobel economics prize goes to
two Americans: Lloyd Shapley, Alvin Roth,
The Washington Post, Economy 15.10.2012.
5. Panteli, S. (2014) Teorija stabilnih rasporeda
(Lojd epli, Nobelova nagrada za 2012),
Bankarstvo 43 (6), 112-119
Bankarstvo 1 2015 85

other investigations to the process of


as well. matching students to
In 1974, with Andy high schools in New
Postlewaite, a new York, where at the
assistant professor at invitation of Jeremy
Illinois, he explored Lack from the New
the structure of the York City Department
core, given the known of Education, he
preferences of the designed the school
players. That point choice system. At that
of view characterized time he also launched
what was then called the creation of the
cooperative game system for matching
theory. It was in this period that he dealt with adequate donors with the right patients.
matching donors and patients. The lectures he In 1998 he moved from Pittsburgh to Boston,
delivered as a visiting professor at Stanford in and started working at the Harvard University.
1978 were subsequently published within his The recognition in the form of the Nobel
first book Axiomatic Models of Bargaining. Prize arrived while he was employed at that
After marrying Emilie, with whom he has two university. In addition that, in 1990 he won the
sons, Aaron and Ben, Roth left the University of Frederick W. Lanchester Prize. After 14 years at
Illinois for the University of Pittsburgh in 1982. Harvard, he moved with his wife to California,
Game theory was already firmly established in where he got a position at Stanford.
economics, but it had not yet thrived in operations It is interesting to note what Roth feels was
research. In cooperation with his new associates the best part of winning the Nobel Prize: The
Roth embarked on further research concerning Nobel is a very famous prize indeed, widely
the modification of algorithms in order to covered in the press, and the nicest part of the
improve the system for the purpose of matching avalanche of emails and other contacts that result
medical school graduates with the hospitals from that has been that many old friends have
searching for new stuff. With his student Xiaolin made contact, some of whom I hadnt been in
Xing, he wrote a paper documenting this in touch with since childhood. It turns out that a
over a dozen markets. It became clear that the Nobel is also followed by other recognitions,
timing of transactions was also important in and perhaps the most unexpected of these is that
understanding how markets and marketplaces the Japan Karate Association in Tokyo has now
work. In 2003 his team applied a similar solution made me an honorary 7th-degree black belt.