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NOMINAL OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC REMARKS

Factor 0.00% 10.00% -10.00%


Initial Outlay $20,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00
Fixed Cost $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 per year
Varible Cost $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 per liter
Rate of Return 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% (nominal)
Sales Revenue forecast $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 per liter
Tax 30.00% 30.00% 30.00%
Depreciation 4.00 4.00 4.00 years
Initial Sales Volume 12,500,000.00 13,750,000.00 11,250,000.00 liters
NPV -$63,600.00 $2,415,800.00 -$2,543,000.00 Sensitivity

ECSY COLAStatement
Income (NOMINAL)
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016
Liters Sold 0.00 12,500,000.00 25,000,000.00 50,000,000.00
Sales $0.00 $4,375,000.00 $8,750,000.00 $17,500,000.00
Variable Costs $0.00 $1,500,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00
Gross Profit $0.00 $2,875,000.00 $5,750,000.00 ###
Fixed Costs $0.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
EBITDA $0.00 -$125,000.00 $2,750,000.00 $8,500,000.00
Taxes (w/o Depreciation) $0.00 -$37,500.00 $825,000.00 $2,550,000.00
EBITDA - Taxes $0.00 -$87,500.00 $1,925,000.00 $5,950,000.00
Depreciation 0 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00
EBIT
Taxes (Operating
(With Profit) $0.00 -$5,125,000.00 -$2,250,000.00 $3,500,000.00
Depreciation) $0.00 -$1,537,500.00 -$675,000.00 $1,050,000.00
EBIT - Taxes $0.00 -$3,587,500.00 -$1,575,000.00 $2,450,000.00

ECSYFree
COLA (NOMINAL)
Cash Flow
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016

EBITDA $0.00 -$125,000.00 $2,750,000.00 $8,500,000.00


Taxes $0.00 -$1,537,500.00 -$675,000.00 $1,050,000.00
Investment $20,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Net
Net Cash
Cash Flow
Flow ### $1,412,500.00 $3,425,000.00 $7,450,000.00
(Perpetuity) ### $1,412,500.00 $3,425,000.00 $7,450,000.00
NPV -$63,600.00
ECSY COLA (OPTIMISTIC)
Income Statement
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016
Liters Sold 0.00 13,750,000.00 27,500,000.00 55,000,000.00
Sales $0.00 $4,812,500.00 $9,625,000.00 $19,250,000.00
Variable Costs $0.00 $1,650,000.00 $3,300,000.00 $6,600,000.00
Gross Profit $0.00 $3,162,500.00 $6,325,000.00 ###
Fixed Costs $0.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
EBITDA $0.00 $162,500.00 $3,325,000.00 $9,650,000.00
Taxes (w/o Depreciation) $0.00 $48,750.00 $997,500.00 $2,895,000.00
EBITDA - Taxes $0.00 $113,750.00 $2,327,500.00 $6,755,000.00
Depreciation 0 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00
EBIT
Taxes (Operating
(With Profit) $0.00 -$4,837,500.00 -$1,675,000.00 $4,650,000.00
Depreciation) $0.00 -$1,451,250.00 -$502,500.00 $1,395,000.00
EBIT - Taxes $0.00 -$3,386,250.00 -$1,172,500.00 $3,255,000.00

ECSY Free
COLACash
(OPTIMISTIC)
Flow
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016

EBITDA $0.00 $162,500.00 $3,325,000.00 $9,650,000.00


Taxes $0.00 -$1,451,250.00 -$502,500.00 $1,395,000.00
Investment $20,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Net
Net Cash
Cash Flow
Flow ### $1,613,750.00 $3,827,500.00 $8,255,000.00
(Perpetuity) ### $1,613,750.00 $3,827,500.00 $8,255,000.00
NPV $2,415,800.00

ECSY COLA (PESSIMISTIC)


Income Statement
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016
Liters Sold 0.00 11,250,000.00 22,500,000.00 45,000,000.00
Sales $0.00 $3,937,500.00 $7,875,000.00 $15,750,000.00
Variable Costs $0.00 $1,350,000.00 $2,700,000.00 $5,400,000.00
Gross Profit $0.00 $2,587,500.00 $5,175,000.00 ###
Fixed Costs $0.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
EBITDA $0.00 -$412,500.00 $2,175,000.00 $7,350,000.00
Taxes (w/o Depreciation) $0.00 -$123,750.00 $652,500.00 $2,205,000.00
EBITDA - Taxes $0.00 -$288,750.00 $1,522,500.00 $5,145,000.00
Depreciation 0 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00
EBIT
Taxes (Operating
(With Profit) $0.00 -$5,412,500.00 -$2,825,000.00 $2,350,000.00
Depreciation) $0.00 -$1,623,750.00 -$847,500.00 $705,000.00
EBIT - Taxes $0.00 -$3,788,750.00 -$1,977,500.00 $1,645,000.00

ECSY Free
COLACash
(PESSIMISTIC)
Flow
From 2013 to 2016
2013 2014 2015 2016

EBITDA $0.00 -$412,500.00 $2,175,000.00 $7,350,000.00


Taxes $0.00 -$1,623,750.00 -$847,500.00 $705,000.00
Investment $20,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Net
Net Cash
Cash Flow
Flow ### $1,211,250.00 $3,022,500.00 $6,645,000.00
(Perpetuity) ### $1,211,250.00 $3,022,500.00 $6,645,000.00
NPV -$2,543,000.00
per percent
$247,940.00 change in sales

OMINAL)
ement
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020
50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00
$17,500,000.00 $17,500,000.00 $17,500,000.00 $17,500,000.00
$6,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00
### ### ### ###
$3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
$8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00
$2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00
$5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00
$5,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$3,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00
$1,050,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00
$2,450,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00

OMINAL)
Flow
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020

$8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00


$1,050,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$7,450,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00
$7,450,000.00 ###
TIMISTIC)
ement
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020
55,000,000.00 55,000,000.00 55,000,000.00 55,000,000.00
$19,250,000.00 $19,250,000.00 $19,250,000.00 $19,250,000.00
$6,600,000.00 $6,600,000.00 $6,600,000.00 $6,600,000.00
### ### ### ###
$3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
$9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00
$2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00
$6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00
$5,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$4,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00
$1,395,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00
$3,255,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00

TIMISTIC)
Flow
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020

$9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00 $9,650,000.00


$1,395,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00 $2,895,000.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$8,255,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00 $6,755,000.00
$8,255,000.00 ###

SIMISTIC)
ement
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020
45,000,000.00 45,000,000.00 45,000,000.00 45,000,000.00
$15,750,000.00 $15,750,000.00 $15,750,000.00 $15,750,000.00
$5,400,000.00 $5,400,000.00 $5,400,000.00 $5,400,000.00
### ### ### ###
$3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
$7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00
$2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00
$5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00
$5,000,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$2,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00
$705,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00
$1,645,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00

SIMISTIC)
Flow
o 2016
2017 2018 2019 2020

$7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00 $7,350,000.00


$705,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00 $2,205,000.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$6,645,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00 $5,145,000.00
$6,645,000.00 ###
Year 0 1 2 3
Investment 20
Sales(liters) 12.5 25 50
Revenue $4.38 $8.75 $17.50
Variable Costs $1.50 $3.00 $6.00
Fixed Costs $3.00 $3.00 $3.00
Operating Income -$0.13 $2.75 $8.50
Amortizations $5.00 $5.00 $5.00
Tax -$0.04 $0.83 $2.55
Depreciation Tax Shield $1.50 $1.50 $1.50
Operating income - Tax -$0.09 $1.93 $5.95
Operating Income- Tax + DTS -20 $1.41 $3.43 $7.45

@15% -20 $1.41 $3.43 $7.45


$15.66
@25% -20 $1.41 $3.43 $7.45
-$0.06
4 5 6

50 50 50 Initial Outlay $20.00


$17.50 $17.50 $17.50 Fixed Cost $3.00
$6.00 $6.00 $6.00 Varible Cost $0.12
$3.00 $3.00 $3.00 Rate
Salesof Return
Revenue $0.25
$8.50 $8.50 $8.50 forecast $0.35
$5.00 Tax 30.00%
$2.55 $2.55 $2.55 Depreciation 4
$1.50
$5.95 $5.95 $5.95
$7.45 $5.95 $5.95
$39.67
$7.45 $45.62
$23.80
$7.45 $29.75
per year
per liter
(nominal)
per liter

years
0 1 2 3 4
Investment $20,000,000.00
Tax Dep $5,000,000.00
Dep tax shield $1,500,000.00

Liters Sold 0.00 12,500,000.00 25,000,000.00 50,000,000.00


Revenues $0.00 $4,375,000.00 $8,750,000.00 $17,500,000.00
Variable Costs $0.00 $1,500,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00
Fixed Costs $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00
Operating Cashflow -$3,000,000.00 -$125,000.00 $2,750,000.00 $8,500,000.00
Tax
Operating Cash -$900,000.00 -$37,500.00 $825,000.00 $2,550,000.00
flow (after tax) -$2,100,000.00 -$87,500.00 $1,925,000.00 $5,950,000.00
Tax Shield $1,500,000.00 $1,500,000.00 $1,500,000.00 $1,500,000.00
Net Cash Flow ### -$600,000.00 $1,412,500.00 $3,425,000.00 $7,450,000.00
Net Cash flow with
Perpetuity ### -$600,000.00 $1,412,500.00 $3,425,000.00 $7,450,000.00
NPV -$5,022,400.00 -$480,000.00
GIVEN
Initial Outlay $20,000,000.00
Fixed Cost $3,000,000.00 per year
Varible Cost $0.12 per liter
Rate of Return 25.00% (nominal)
50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 Sales Revenue forecast $0.35 per liter
$17,500,000.00 $17,500,000.00 Tax 30.00%
$6,000,000.00 $6,000,000.00 Depreciation 4 years
$3,000,000.00 $3,000,000.00 1st L sold 12500000
$8,500,000.00 $8,500,000.00
$2,550,000.00 $2,550,000.00
$5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 VARIABLE
Discount Rate 0.25
$5,950,000.00 $5,950,000.00 Percentage cut on sale 0
$23,800,000.00 Delayed 1 year (y or n) y
$29,750,000.00

breakeven point 34.5042006 15% RoR


cut on sale