TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Global Strategy Group
DATE: October 10, 2017
RE: POLL RESULTS — St. Clair is well-positioned for both Primary and General Election in ME-2


Lucas St. Clair currently leads the race for the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Congressman Bruce
Poliquin in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District and nearly ties the two-term incumbent in a general election head-
to-head. St. Clair’s small business background and his role in creating the Katahdin Woods and Waters National
Monument make a compelling combination for voters in the Democratic primary as well as the general election.
This is a competitive race in an Obama-Trump district.

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:
• St. Clair currently leads the Democratic primary by a wide margin: In a four-way contest, St. Clair leads Jared
Golden by 32 points (40% to 8%) with Jonathan Fulford (5%) and Tim Rich (2%) further behind. Golden has
little initial name recognition – only 14% of primary voters have an opinion of him, compared to 37% for St.
Clair – and 45% of voters are undecided.

• St. Clair’s role in the Katahdin monument is an asset: Three in four (77%) Democratic primary voters (and
57% of general election voters) say their opinion has grown more favorable to the Katahdin Woods and Waters
National Monument over the past year. They are far more likely to say it has been good than bad for the
region’s economy (by 61% to 1% among primary voters; 36% to 7% among general election voters).

• Trump and national Republicans are a drag on Poliquin: Though he won this rural, working-class district in
2016, Donald Trump is now underwater here (45% approve to 50% disapprove) and Republicans in Congress
fare worse (37% favorable to 51% unfavorable). Even among the president’s base of non-college voters only
50% approve of the job he is doing (46% disapprove), and among voters not registered with either major party
– 35% of the likely November electorate – he is at 46% approve to 49% disapprove.

• Poliquin is vulnerable, and his health care vote has hurt his re-election chances: Just 43% of voters in the
district have a favorable view of Poliquin, while 48% are unfavorable. In a head-to-head with an unnamed
Democratic challenger, Poliquin trails by double digits (37% for Poliquin, 47% for the Democrat). Against St.
Clair, the Republican holds a slight lead (44% Poliquin / 41% St. Clair), but reading short, balanced, positive
statements introducing both Poliquin and St. Clair lifts St. Clair to a 9-point lead (42% Poliquin / 51% St. Clair).
Messages pointing to Poliquin’s vote on the GOP health care bill – and his refusal to explain it to constituents
– emerge as highly effective attacks.

ABOUT THIS POLL
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 625 interviews in total, including 400 likely 2018 General Election voters and 300 likely
Democratic Primary voters (with Democratic primary voters weighted down to their appropriate share for the November electorate),
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in Maine’s 2 Congressional District between October 2-5, 2017. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.9% for the
General Election sample and +/- 5.7% for the Democratic Primary sample. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater. This poll was
conducted independently of any candidate or campaign.

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