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MEMO​:​ ​MOORE​ ​IN​ ​DRIVER'S​ ​SEAT...

FUELED​ ​BY​ ​ALABAMA​ ​FAN​ ​SUPPORT

DATE​: Thursday,​ ​October​ ​12,​ ​2017
TO​: Interested​ ​Parties
FROM​: Matt​ ​Hubbard,​ ​VP​ ​Research​ ​&​ ​Analytics
RE​: Survey​ ​of​ ​General​ ​Special​ ​Election​ ​Voters​ ​in​ ​Alabama

Alabama-based​ ​research​ ​and​ ​communication​ ​firm​ ​Cygnal​​ ​conducted​ ​a​ ​telephone​ ​survey​ ​last​ ​week​ ​in
Alabama​ ​to​ ​examine​ ​the​ ​general​ ​election​ ​for​ ​the​ ​open​ ​US​ ​Senate​ ​seat​ ​vacated​ ​by​ ​US​ ​Attorney​ ​General
Jeff​ ​Sessions.​ ​It​ ​is​ ​representative​ ​of​ ​a​ ​projected​ ​turnout​ ​(t/o)​ ​universe​ ​of​ ​1.2​ ​million​ ​voters.

OVERALL​ ​RESULTS
● This​ ​is​ ​our​ ​first​ ​survey​ ​since​ ​July​ ​where​ ​the​ ​“definitely​ ​voting”​ ​percentage​ ​was​ ​above​ ​90%.
● Roy​ ​Moore​ ​leads​ ​Doug​ ​Jones​ ​by​ ​8pts​ ​overall.
● Jones​ ​leads​ ​Moore​ ​by​ ​5%​ ​among​ ​voters​ ​under​ ​18-49​ ​years​ ​old​ ​(27%​ ​of​ ​the​ ​projected​ ​turnout),
while​ ​Moore​ ​has​ ​a​ ​commanding​ ​lead​ ​of​ ​12%​ ​with​ ​voters​ ​over​ ​the​ ​age​ ​of​ ​50.
● Jones​ ​suffers​ ​from​ ​low​ ​name​ ​ID​ ​-​ ​18%​ ​of​ ​voters​ ​polled​ ​have​ ​never​ ​heard​ ​of​ ​Doug​ ​Jones​ ​-
compared​ ​to​ ​his​ ​Republican​ ​counterpart​ ​(3%​ ​never​ ​heard​ ​of)
● Governor​ ​Kay​ ​Ivey’s​ ​favorability​ ​(65%)​ ​exceeds​ ​President​ ​Trump’s​ ​(59%)​ ​by​ ​7pts;​ ​Moore’s
favorability​ ​(53%)​ ​is​ ​higher​ ​than​ ​Jones’​ ​(43%)​ ​by​ ​10pts​ ​despite​ ​Moore’s​ ​higher​ ​unfavorables
(39%).
● 51%​ ​of​ ​special​ ​general​ ​election​ ​voters​ ​identify​ ​as​ ​fans​ ​of​ ​the​ ​Alabama​ ​Crimson​ ​Tide,​ ​while​ ​only
22%​ ​support​ ​the​ ​Auburn​ ​Tigers.
● Moore​ ​has​ ​higher​ ​support​ ​than​ ​Jones​ ​among​ ​both​ ​Alabama​ ​(54%-38%)​ ​and​ ​Auburn​ ​(50%-45%)
fans.

GENERAL​ ​ELECTION​ ​BALLOT​ ​MATCHUP
● Males​ ​support​ ​Moore​ ​(53%-38%)​ ​while​ ​females​ ​barely​ ​break​ ​for​ ​Jones​ ​(46%-45%).
● The​ ​closest​ ​age​ ​group​ ​is​ ​voters​ ​35-49​ ​years​ ​old​ ​(48%​ ​Jones​ ​-​ ​45%​ ​Moore)​ ​[20%​ ​of​ ​t/o].
● Among​ ​voters​ ​with​ ​the​ ​highest​ ​propensity​ ​to​ ​vote​ ​in​ ​December,​ ​Moore​ ​leads​ ​by​ ​14pts.​ ​Jones
leads​ ​among​ ​low​ ​propensity​ ​voters,​ ​but​ ​the​ ​margin​ ​isn’t​ ​likely​ ​to​ ​be​ ​significant​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​change
results.
● Moore​ ​leads​ ​Jones​ ​among​ ​married​ ​voters​ ​by​ ​25pts​ ​(57%-32%).
● Among​ ​voters​ ​that​ ​usually​ ​support​ ​Republican​ ​candidates,​ ​13%​ ​say​ ​they​ ​will​ ​definitely​ ​support
Doug​ ​Jones;​ ​likewise​ ​8%​ ​of​ ​Democratic-leaning​ ​voters​ ​will​ ​definitely​ ​support​ ​Roy​ ​Moore.
● Head-to-head​ ​by​ ​(grouped)​ ​media​ ​market​ ​[see​ ​toplines​ ​for​ ​groupings]​:
○ Huntsville​ (​ 20%​ ​of​ ​vote)​​ ​-​ ​52%​ ​Moore​ ​-​ ​39%​ ​Jones
○ Birmingham​ (​ 41%​ ​of​ ​vote)​​ ​-​ ​46%​ ​Jones​ ​-​ ​45%​ ​Moore
○ Montgomery​ (​ 25%​ ​of​ ​vote)​​ ​-​ ​50%​ ​Moore​ ​-​ ​39%​ ​Jones
○ Mobile​ (​ 14%​ ​of​ ​vote)​​ ​-​ ​57%​ ​Moore​ ​-​ ​36%​ ​Jones
FAVORABLE​ ​RATINGS

Person Overall​ ​Fav Very​ ​Fav Fav​ ​/​ ​Unfav​ ​Ratio Never​ ​Heard​ ​Of

Roy​ ​Moore 52.9% 35.0% 1.4:1 3.1%

Doug​ ​Jones 42.7% 31.9% 1.5:1 17.8%

Kay​ ​Ivey 65.0% 30.3% 3.8:1 6.6%

Donald​ ​Trump 57.8% 45.4% 1.5:1 0.6%

SUMMARY
Judge​ ​Roy​ ​Moore’s​ ​“manifest​ ​destiny”​ ​to​ ​fill​ ​Alabama’s​ ​vacant​ ​US​ ​Senate​ ​seat​ ​hasn’t​ ​shown​ ​any​ ​signs
of​ ​slowing​ ​down​ ​in​ ​the​ ​general​ ​election​ ​environment.​ ​Fueled​ ​by​ ​strong​ ​combination​ ​of​ ​support​ ​from​ ​fans
of​ ​his​ ​alma​ ​mater​ ​and​ ​the​ ​low​ ​name​ ​ID​ ​of​ ​his​ ​opponent,​ ​Moore​ ​is​ ​out​ ​to​ ​an​ ​early​ ​8pt​ ​lead.

Despite​ ​Moore’s​ ​seeming​ ​grip​ ​on​ ​the​ ​Senate​ ​seat,​ ​Jones’​ ​41%​ ​support​ ​in​ ​a​ ​“crimson”​ ​red​ ​state​ ​shows
signs​ ​of​ ​life​ ​for​ ​the​ ​Democrat’s​ ​campaign​ ​-​ ​or​ ​at​ ​least​ ​reflects​ ​the​ ​polarizing​ ​nature​ ​of​ ​his​ ​opponent.

As​ ​with​ ​every​ ​survey,​ ​final​ ​results​ ​will​ ​determined​ ​by​ ​turnout.​ ​The​ ​results​ ​of​ ​this​ ​survey​ ​indicate​ ​that​ ​a
lower​ ​turnout​ ​bodes​ ​well​ ​for​ ​Moore.​ ​While​ ​we​ ​expect​ ​this​ ​race​ ​to​ ​heat​ ​up​ ​significantly​ ​moving​ ​into
November,​ ​any​ ​scenario​ ​short​ ​of​ ​a​ ​Kick-6​ ​turnaround​ ​will​ ​have​ ​Moore​ ​on​ ​the​ ​victor’s​ ​stage​ ​in
December.

METHODOLOGY
This​ ​telephone​ ​survey​ ​was​ ​conducted​ ​October​ ​2-5,​ ​2017,​ ​with​ ​participation​ ​by​ ​497​ ​general​ ​special
election​ ​voters.​ ​It​ ​has​ ​a​ ​margin​ ​of​ ​error​ ​of​ ​±4.4%.​ ​Interviews​ ​were​ ​conducted​ ​using​ ​IVR​ ​technology​ ​to
landlines​ ​and​ ​live​ ​operators​ ​to​ ​cell​ ​phones.​ ​The​ ​survey​ ​was​ ​weighted​ ​to​ ​a​ ​projected​ ​statewide​ ​special
election​ ​general​ ​voter​ ​universe.​ ​The​ ​weighting​ ​average​ ​across​ ​all​ ​groups​ ​was​ ​barely​ ​off​ ​target​ ​at​ ​1.02​ ​-
much​ ​lower​ ​than​ ​the​ ​accepted​ ​industry​ ​average​ ​of​ ​2.​ [​ Cygnal​ ​conducted​ ​the​ ​survey.​ ​Cygnal​ ​and​ ​L2
shared​ ​costs​ ​of​ ​fielding​ ​the​ ​survey.​ ​L2​ ​provided​ ​the​ ​voter​ ​data.]

ABOUT​ ​CYGNAL
Cygnal​ ​is​ ​a​ ​research​ ​and​ ​communication​ ​firm​ ​serving​ ​center-right​ ​committees,​ ​organizations,​ ​and​ ​consultants.​ ​They​ ​have
worked​ ​with​ ​~150​ ​clients​ ​group​ ​and​ ​conducted​ ​more​ ​than​ ​360​ ​highly​ ​accurate​ ​polls​ ​in​ ​nearly​ ​every​ ​state.​ ​www.cygn.al

ABOUT​ ​L2
L2​ ​is​ ​a​ ​nonpartisan,​ ​nationwide​ ​voter​ ​data​ ​and​ ​analytics​ ​firm.​ ​They​ ​invest​ ​significant​ ​resources​ ​in​ ​maintaining​ ​an​ ​accurate
voter​ ​file​ ​to​ ​ensure​ ​campaigns​ ​have​ ​the​ ​best​ ​tools​ ​at​ ​their​ ​disposal.​ ​www.l2political.com