Ballistic Missile Defense Overview

– 8th Annual Missile Defense Conference –

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

22 MAR 10 LTG Patrick J. O’Reilly, USA Director Missile Defense Agency
Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10) ms-113011 / 031210

Ballistic Missile Threat – 2010
• Threats are expected to grow quantitatively and qualitatively • Long-range threats from regional states did not emerge last decade, but the potential threat remains • Shorter-range threats within key regions are growing rapidly • The threat is inherently unpredictable and requires that the U.S. be well hedged against future developments
Rest of World Force Levels 2008 SRBM MRBM IR/ICBM Totals
Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10)

Belarus Ukraine Scud Scud SS-21 SS-21

Syria Scud SS-21

Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Scud Scud SS-21

Libya Scud Egypt Scud SS-1 North Korea Toksa, Scud ER Scud No Dong New IRBM Taepo Dong-2

Iran Fateh-110, CSS-8 Shahab 1 & 2 Shahab 3 Shahab 3 Variant New MRBM Yemen Scud SS-21

Pakistan Ghaznavi, Shaheen 1 Ghauri, Shaheen 2

India Prithvi 1 & 2 Dhanush, Agni 1 Agni 2, Agni 3 Sagarika

Vietnam Scud

5,500 350 <40 5,900
Sources: NASIC, Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat, 2009; DIA, Annual Threat Assessment 2008; DIA/MSIC Message 2009281441SS(U)

ms-113011 / 031210

2

Ballistic Missile Defense Review Policy Priorities
– Guidance From The President, Published February 2010 – • The United States will continue to defend the homeland against the threat of limited ballistic missile attack • The United States will defend against regional missile threats to U.S. forces, while protecting allies and partners and enabling them to defend themselves • Before new capabilities are deployed, they must undergo testing that enables assessment under realistic operational conditions • The commitment to new capabilities must be fiscally sustainable over the long term • U.S. BMD capabilities must be flexible enough to adapt as threats change • The United States will seek to lead expanded international efforts for missile defense
Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10) ms-113011 / 031210

3

Layered Ballistic Missile Defense 2010
Ground-based Interceptor (15→26) Early Warning Radar Upgraded Early Warning Radar ICBMs > 5,500 km Sea-based X-band Radar Upgraded Early Warning Radar Upgraded Early Warning Radar

C2BMC Ft. Greely

Shemya, Alaska

Thule, Greenland

Beale Air Force Base Ground-based Interceptor (3→4) Vandenberg Air Force Base

Aegis Ships (19→21)

IRBMs /MRBMs 1,000-5,500 km

THAAD Fire Units (1→2) Hundreds of THAAD Interceptors (0→25) United Kingdom

Fylingdales,

SM-3 Interceptors (35→61)

AN/TPY-2
Thousands of SRBMs < 1,000 km

AN/TPY-2

Israel
SRBM = Short Range Ballistic Missiles MRBM = Medium Range Ballistic Missiles IRBM = Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles ICBM= Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Shariki, Japan

Patriot Fire Units (44→52) PAC-3 Interceptors (727→791)

SM-2 Interceptors (72)

• THAAD provides rapid worldwide response against SRBMs and MRBMs • Aegis provides mobile and semipermanent response against SRBMs, MRBMs and IRBMs • Ground-based missile defense provides permanent defense of homeland against limited ICBM attack
Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10) ms-113011 / 031210

4

Early Intercept Strategy
2016 2020 2020
Altitude

2009

Threat Launch
Time After Lift-Off

Interceptor Launch

2009 2016 2020
Boost Tracking Limited Tracking Fire-control Tracking Interceptor Flyout Hit Assessment Intercept

Benefits of Early Intercept
1. Large Raid Handling 2. Shoot-Look-Shoot 3. Hedge Against Maneuvering Threats 4. Constrained Countermeasure Deployments
ms-113011 / 031210

Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10)

5

Phased Adaptive Approach In Europe
• Phase 1: Use existing / maturing systems versus SRBM / MRBM threat - Sea-based missile defenses will be used as necessary to protect parts of southern Europe, combined with other missile defenses (2011 timeframe) - Deploys forward-based sensor in Europe • Phase 2: Enhanced missile defense systems versus SRBM / MRBM threat - Use advanced sensors and improved version of the SM-3 interceptor, the Block IB, to improve the performance once the technology is proven, including a combination of sea- and land-based configurations (2015 timeframe) • Phase 3: Improved area coverage versus MRBM / IRBM threat - As threat matures, use the more capable SM-3 Block IIA interceptor, including a combination of sea- and land-based configurations (2018 timeframe) • Phase 4: Capability versus potential ICBM threat - If potential ICBM threat emerges, advanced missile defense technologies could eventually provide some capability against a regional ICBM threat - Once proven and tested, can be made available for deployment to NATO Europe (2020 timeframe)
Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10) ms-113011 / 031210

6

Missile Defense Initiatives

SM-3 1B Precision Tracking Satellite System Planning Airborne Infrared System To Support BMD

IIA

IIB Directed Energy Research

High Performance Interceptors

Engage on STSS Demo Satellites

Engage on Airborne Infrared (sea-based SM-3)

Engage on Airborne Infrared (Aegis Ashore)

Enhanced C2BMC
Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10) ms-113011 / 031210

7

Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10)

ms-113011 / 031210

8

Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10)

ms-113011 / 031210

9

Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10)

ms-113011 / 031210

10

International Activity Highlights
R&D Cooperative Efforts
UK: Fylingdales Upgraded Early Warning Radar, Joint Project Arrangements for Cooperative Projects Italy: MEADS partner Denmark: Upgrade Thule Early Warning Radar Australia: Advanced technology cooperation Japan: Forward-based X-Band radar siting, 21" Missile Development Czech Republic: RDT&E Cooperative Projects

Foreign BMD Projects / Interests
Netherlands: PAC-3, Maritime BMD Cooperation France: Discussions Poland: Agreed to host Aegis Ashore Russia: Strategic cooperation /transparency dialogue United Arab Emirates: Request for THAAD, PAC-3 Israel: Arrow Deployed, Arrow System Improvement Program; development of short-range BMD, Upper Tier program ROK: Missile defense discussions Germany: MEADS partner, laser cross-link technology

NATO: Missile defense Architecture Analysis. Working with ALTBMD to demonstrate connectivity between NATO and U.S. missile defense systems Saudi Arabia: Missile defense Kuwait: Missile defense discussions discussions Romania: Agreed to host Aegis Ashore
Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10)

Ukraine: Conducting a missile defense project Bahrain: Missile defense discussions Qatar: Missile defense discussions
ms-113011 / 031210

11

Approved for Public Release 10-MDA-5341 (11 MAR 10)

ms-113011 / 031210

12