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c University of New South Wales
School of Risk and Actuarial Studies
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Mortality projection models
Age-Period-Cohort Models
Cohort effects
Age-Period-Cohort models
xt = Q(x )R(t)S(t| x)
{z }
c
In log terms
(x , t , tx ) (x + 1 2 x , t + 2 t, tx 1 2 (t x ))
(x , t , tx ) (x + c1 , t c1 , tx )
Impose constraints
X X X
t = 0, c = 0, cc = 0
t c c
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Mortality projection models
Age-Period-Cohort Models
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0.0
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0.4
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