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CORRELATION TEST PM CEMS AND REFERENCE METHOD TEST DATA

PM CEMS PM concentration Facility: Alcoa


response mg/m3 Location: Newsburgh, IN
Run x y Emission Unit: UNIT2
1 1.6 0.09 Test Dates:
2 1.6 0.09
3 1.6 0.17 Value Units
4 1.6 0.96 Emission limit: 30 mg/m3
5 7.7 19.26
6 8.3 16.42
10 7.6 19.88
11 7.3 19.46

PM Concentration
12 7.2 17.77
13 12.0 27.78
14 13.1 26.12
15 11.4 26.29 30
16 10.7 26.6
17 10.4 26.16 25
19
20 20
21
22
15
23
24
10

0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
PM CEMS Response

369540810.xls Test Data Page 1 of 29


10/23/2017
PM CEMS PM concentration Facility: Alcoa
response mg/m3 Location: Newsburgh, IN
Run x y Emission Unit: UNIT2

369540810.xls Test Data Page 2 of 29


10/23/2017
PM CEMS PM concentration Facility: Alcoa
response mg/m3 Location: Newsburgh, IN
Run x y Emission Unit: UNIT2

PS-11 Correlation Test


Calculation Spreadsheet
Version 2-6 10/25/04

369540810.xls Test Data Page 3 of 29


10/23/2017
CALCULATIONS FOR LINEAR CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

PM CEMS PM concentration
response mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y (xi-x~)2 (yi-y~)2 (xi-x~)(yi-y~) y^ (y^i-yi)2
1 1.5524 0.09 32.80 260.20 92.39 1.341 1.566
2 1.6151 0.09 32.09 260.20 91.37 1.504 2.000
3 1.556 0.17 32.76 257.63 91.87 1.351 1.394
4 1.6011 0.96 32.25 232.89 86.66 1.468 0.258
5 7.7059 19.26 0.18 9.24 1.30 17.328 3.733
6 8.3138 16.42 1.07 0.04 0.21 18.907 6.187
10 7.6329 19.88 0.12 13.39 1.29 17.138 7.517
11 7.2768 19.46 0.00 10.49 -0.01 16.213 10.542
12 7.1513 17.77 0.02 2.40 -0.20 15.887 3.545
13 11.9547 27.78 21.86 133.62 54.04 28.366 0.344
14 13.0548 26.12 33.35 98.00 57.17 31.224 26.055
15 11.3722 26.29 16.75 101.39 41.21 26.853 0.317
16 10.7378 26.64 11.96 108.56 36.03 25.205 2.060
17 10.391 26.16 9.68 98.79 30.92 24.304 3.445

369540810.xls Linear Calcs Page 4 of 29


10/23/2017
PM CEMS PM concentration
response mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y (xi-x )
~ 2
(yi-y~)2 (xi-x~)(yi-y~) y^ (y^i-yi)2

369540810.xls Linear Calcs Page 5 of 29


10/23/2017
PM CEMS PM concentration
response mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y (xi-x )
~ 2
(yi-y~)2 (xi-x~)(yi-y~) y^ (y^i-yi)2

Sum 101.9 227.1 224.9 1,586.8 584.25 69.0


Mean 7.28 16.22 y^ at mean x = 16.22

PS-11 Correlation Test


Calculation Spreadsheet
Version 2-6 10/25/04

369540810.xls Linear Calcs Page 6 of 29


10/23/2017
RESULTS OF LINEAR CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

Correlation equation: y= -2.692 + 2.598 x


Variable Equation Value
n Number of data points = 14 Summary of Acceptance Criteria for PS-11
x ~ x~ = 1/n*(Sum of (xi)) = 7.28 Criterion Actual Allowable Acceptable?
Sxx Sxx = Sum((xi-x~)^2) = 225 Correlation coefficient 0.976 > 0.85 yes
y ~ y~ = 1/n*(Sum of (yi)) = 16.22 Confidence interval 4.65% < 10% yes
Syy Syy = Sum((yi-y~)^2) = 1,587 Tolerance interval 14.4% < 25% yes
Sxy Sxy = Sum((xi-x~)(yi-y~)) = 584.2 * Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.
b0 b0 = y~-b1x~ = -2.692

PM C o n cen tratio n
b1 b1 = Sxy/Sxx = 2.598
SL SL = SQRT(1/(n-2)(Sum(yi^-yi)^2)) = 2.397
y^mean y^ at mean x value = 16.221 Plot of Linear Regression Line
tf tf from table = 2.179 30
CI = tf*SL*SQRT(1/n) = f(x) = 2.5979938635x - 2.6919016425
CI 1.396 25
EL Emission Limit = 30.0 20
CI% CI% =CI/EL*100% = 4.65% 15
n' n' = n = 14 10
vf vf from table = 1.515 5
un' un' from table = 1.186 0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
kT kt = un'*vf = 1.798 PM CEMS Response

TI TI = kt*SL = 4.310
TI% TI% = TI/EL*100% = 14.4%
Sy Sy = SQRT(Syy/(n-1)) = 11.048 PS-11 Correlation Test
r2 r2 = 1-(SL^2/Sy^2) = 0.953 Calculation Spreadsheet
r r = SQRT((1-SL^2/Sy^2)) = 0.976 Version 2-6 10/25/04
* Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.

369540810.xls Linear Summary 10/23/2017


CALCULATIONS FOR POLYNOMIAL CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

PM CEMS PM concentration
response mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y x2 x3 x4 xy x 2y y^ (y^-y)2 delta (yi-y~)2 CI
1 1.5524 0.09 2 4 6 0 0 0.167 0.006 0.2524 260.20 1.82
2 1.6151 0.09 3 4 7 0 0 0.412 0.104 0.2445 260.20 1.79
3 1.556 0.17 2 4 6 0 0 0.181 0.000 0.2519 257.63 1.81
4 1.6011 0.96 3 4 7 2 2 0.358 0.363 0.2462 232.89 1.79
5 7.7059 19.26 59 458 3,526 148 1,144 19.327 0.004 0.1739 9.24 1.51
6 8.3138 16.42 69 575 4,777 137 1,135 20.683 18.169 0.1564 0.04 1.43
10 7.6329 19.88 58 445 3,394 152 1,158 19.157 0.522 0.1758 13.39 1.52
11 7.2768 19.46 53 385 2,804 142 1,030 18.311 1.320 0.1835 10.49 1.55
12 7.1513 17.77 51 366 2,615 127 909 18.005 0.055 0.1857 2.40 1.56
13 11.9547 27.78 143 1,709 20,425 332 3,970 26.784 0.992 0.2324 133.62 1.74
14 13.0548 26.12 170 2,225 29,046 341 4,452 27.947 3.336 0.4933 98.00 2.54
15 11.3722 26.29 129 1,471 16,725 299 3,400 26.041 0.062 0.1627 101.39 1.46
16 10.7378 26.64 115 1,238 13,294 286 3,072 25.130 2.280 0.1247 108.56 1.28
17 10.391 26.16 108 1,122 11,658 272 2,825 24.588 2.472 0.1165 98.79 1.23

Page 8 of 29
369540810.xls Polynomial Calcs
10/23/2017
PM CEMS PM concentration
response mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y x2 x3 x4 xy x 2y y^ (y^-y)2 delta (yi-y~)2 CI

Page 9 of 29
369540810.xls Polynomial Calcs
10/23/2017
PM CEMS PM concentration
response mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y x2 x3 x4 xy x 2y y^ (y^-y)2 delta (yi-y~)2 CI

Page 10 of 29
369540810.xls Polynomial Calcs
10/23/2017
PM CEMS PM concentration
response mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y x2 x3 x4 xy x 2y y^ (y^-y)2 delta (yi-y~)2 CI

Sum 101.9 227.1 967 10,008 108,290 2,237 23,097 29.687 1586.83
Minimum> 0.1165 1.234

PS-11 Correlation Test


Calculation Spreadsheet
Version 2-6 10/25/04

Page 11 of 29
369540810.xls Polynomial Calcs
10/23/2017
RESULTS OF POLYNOMIAL CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

Variable Equation Value Correlation equation: y= -6.228 + 4.323 x + -0.13058 x2


n Number of data points = 14
S1 S1 = Sum (xi) = 102 Summary of Acceptance Criteria for PS-11
S2 S2 = Sum (xi2) = 967 Criterion Actual Allowable Acceptable?
S3 S3 = Sum (xi3) = 10,008 Correlation coefficient 0.989 > 0.85 yes
S4 S4 = Sum (xi4) = 108,290 Confidence interval 4.11% < 10% yes
S5 S5 = Sum (yi) = 227 Tolerance interval 10.2% < 25% yes
S6 S6 = Sum (xiyi) = 2,237 * Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.
S7 S7 = Sum (xi2yi) = 23,097
det A det A = nS2S4-S2S2S2+S1S3S2-S3S3n+S2S1S3-S4S1S1 = 7.251E+06 Check for Correlation Curve Minimum/Maximum
b0 b0 = (S5S2S4+S1S3S7+S2S6S3-S7S2S2-S3S3S5-S4S6S1)/det A = -6.228 Correlation curve minimum point NA
b1 b1 = (nS6S4+S5S3S2+S2S1S7-S2S6S2-S7S3n-S4S1S5)/det A = 4.323 Minimum allowable x value NA
b2 b2 = (nS2S7+S1S6S2+S5S1S3-S2S2S5-S3S6n-S7S1S1)/det A = -0.13058 Is correlation curve minimum < minimum x value? NA
Sp Sp = Sqrt((1/(n-3)Sum of (y^-Y)2) = 1.643 Correlation curve maximum point 16.6
D D = n(S2S4-S32)+S1(S3S2-S1S4)+S2(S1S3-S22) = 7.251E+06 Extrapolation limit for x (125% of maximum x value) 16.3
C0 C0 = (S2S4-S32)/D = 0.626 Is correlation curve maximum > extrapolation limit? yes
C1 C1 = (S3S2-S1S4)/D = -0.1877

PM Concentration
C2 C2 = (S1S3-S22)/D = 1.176E-02
C3 C3 = (nS4-S22)/D = 8.017E-02
C4 C4 = (S1S2-nS3)/D = -5.734E-03 Plot of Polynomial Regression Curve
C5 C5 = (nS2-S12)/D = 4.342E-04
30
tf tf from table = 2.201
25 f(x) = - 0.1305826953x^2 + 4.3225412228x - 6.2284192838
EL Emission Limit = 30.0
CI CI = tf*Sp *sqrt(delta-min) = 1.234 20
CI% CI% = CI/EL*100= 4.11%
15
vf vf from table = 1.551
un' un' from table = 1.203 10
n' n' = 1/delta = 8.58 5
kT kt = un'*vf = 1.865
0
TI TI = kt*sp = 3.064
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
TI% TI% = TI/EL *100% = 10.2%
y~ y~ = 1/n*(Sum of (yi)) = 16.22 PM CEMS Response
Sy Sy = sqrt(Sum of ( yi-y~)^2/(n-1) = 11.05
r2 r2 = 1-(Sp^2/Sy^2) = 0.978
r r = sqrt((1-Sp^2/Sy^2)) = 0.989
Max-min? b2 > 0? maximum PS-11 Correlation Test
xmax-min y = -b1/2b2 = 16.55 Calculation Spreadsheet
1.25xmax 16.32 Version 2-6 10/25/04
* Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.

369540810.xls Polynomial Summary 10/23/2017


CALCULATIONS FOR LOGARITHMIC CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

PM CEMS response PM concentration


Measured Transformed mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x x' = ln (x) y (xi'-x'~)2 (yi-y~)2 (x'i-x'~)(yi-y~) y^ (y^i-yi)2
1 1.5524 0.440 0.09 1.656 260.200 20.757 -0.206 0.087
2 1.6151 0.479 0.09 1.556 260.200 20.118 0.300 0.044
3 1.556 0.442 0.17 1.650 257.625 20.617 -0.176 0.120
4 1.6011 0.471 0.96 1.577 232.889 19.166 0.189 0.595
5 7.7059 2.042 19.26 0.099 9.237 0.959 20.247 0.973
6 8.3138 2.118 16.42 0.153 0.040 0.078 21.216 23.000
10 7.6329 2.032 19.88 0.094 13.390 1.119 20.125 0.060
11 7.2768 1.985 19.46 0.067 10.493 0.836 19.515 0.003
12 7.1513 1.967 17.77 0.058 2.400 0.373 19.293 2.320
13 11.9547 2.481 27.78 0.569 133.617 8.722 25.852 3.716
14 13.0548 2.569 26.12 0.710 97.996 8.341 26.976 0.733
15 11.3722 2.431 26.29 0.496 101.391 7.094 25.215 1.156
16 10.7378 2.374 26.64 0.419 108.562 6.743 24.482 4.657
17 10.391 2.341 26.16 0.377 98.789 6.106 24.063 4.398

Page 13 of 29
369540810.xls Logarithmic Calcs
10/23/2017
PM CEMS response PM concentration
Measured Transformed mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x x' = ln (x) y (xi'-x'~)2 (yi-y~)2 (x'i-x'~)(yi-y~) y^ (y^i-yi)2

Page 14 of 29
369540810.xls Logarithmic Calcs
10/23/2017
PM CEMS response PM concentration
Measured Transformed mg/m3 CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x x' = ln (x) y (xi'-x'~)2 (yi-y~)2 (x'i-x'~)(yi-y~) y^ (y^i-yi)2

Sum 24.2 227.1 9.5 1,586.8 121.029 41.864


Mean 1.73 16.22 y^ at mean x = 16.221

PS-11 Correlation Test


Calculation Spreadsheet
Version 2-6 10/25/04

Page 15 of 29
369540810.xls Logarithmic Calcs
10/23/2017
RESULTS OF LOGARITHMIC CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

Correlation equation: y= -5.820 + 12.765 Ln(x)


Variable Equation Value
n Number of data points = 14 Summary of Acceptance Criteria for PS-11
x' ~ x'~ = 1/n*(Sum of (x'i)) = 1.73 Criterion Actual Allowable Acceptable?
Sx'x' Sx'x' = Sum((x'i-x'~)^2) = 9.48 Correlation coefficient 0.986 > 0.85 yes
y ~ y~ = 1/n*(Sum of (yi)) = 16.2 Confidence interval 3.63% < 10% yes
Syy Syy = Sum((yi-y~)^2) = 1,587 Tolerance interval 11.2% < 25% yes
Sx'y Sx'y = Sum((x'i-x'~)(yi-y~)) = 121.0 * Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.
b0 b0 = y~-b1x'~ = -5.820

PM Co n cen tratio n
b1 b1 = Sx'y/Sx'x' = 12.765
SL SL = SQRT(1/(n-2)(Sum(yi^-yi)^2)) = 1.868
Plot of Logarithmic Regression Curve
y^mean y^ at mean x value = 16.221
tf tf from table = 2.179 30

CI CI = tf*SL*SQRT(1/n) = 1.088 25 f(x) = 12.7652492335 ln(x) - 5.819880863

EL Emission Limit = 30.0 20

CI% CI% =CI/EL*100% = 3.63% 15


n' n' = n = 14 10
vf vf from table = 1.515 5
un' un' from table = 1.186 0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
kT kt = un'*vf = 1.798 PM CEMS Response

TI TI = kt*SL = 3.36
TI% TI% = TI/EL*100% = 11.2%
Sy Sy = SQRT(Syy/(n-1)) = 11.048 PS-11 Correlation Test
r2 r2 = 1-(SL^2/Sy^2) = 0.971 Calculation Spreadsheet
r r = SQRT((1-SL^2/Sy^2)) = 0.986 Version 2-6 10/25/04
* Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.

369540810.xls Logarithmic Summary 10/23/2017


CALCULATIONS FOR EXPONENTIAL CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

PM concentration
PM CEMS mg/m3
response Measured Transformed CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y y' = Ln(y) (xi-x~)2 (y'i-y'~)2 (xi-x~)(y'i-y'~) y'^ (y'^i-y'i)2
1 1.5524 0.09 -2.408 32.80 17.209 23.759 -1.110 1.686
2 1.6151 0.09 -2.408 32.09 17.209 23.499 -1.078 1.768
3 1.556 0.17 -1.772 32.76 12.337 20.104 -1.108 0.441
4 1.6011 0.96 -0.041 32.25 3.173 10.115 -1.085 1.091
5 7.7059 19.26 2.958 0.18 1.483 0.519 1.953 1.011
6 8.3138 16.42 2.799 1.07 1.119 1.094 2.255 0.295
10 7.6329 19.88 2.990 0.12 1.561 0.441 1.916 1.152
11 7.2768 19.46 2.968 0.00 1.508 -0.004 1.739 1.511
12 7.1513 17.77 2.878 0.02 1.293 -0.146 1.677 1.442
13 11.9547 27.78 3.324 21.86 2.509 7.405 4.067 0.551
14 13.0548 26.12 3.263 33.35 2.317 8.791 4.614 1.827
15 11.3722 26.29 3.269 16.75 2.337 6.256 3.777 0.258
16 10.7378 26.64 3.282 11.96 2.378 5.332 3.461 0.032
17 10.391 26.16 3.264 9.68 2.322 4.741 3.289 0.001

Page 17 of 29
369540810.xls Exponential Calcs
10/23/2017
PM concentration
PM CEMS mg/m3
response Measured Transformed CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y y' = Ln(y) (xi-x~)2 (y'i-y'~)2 (xi-x~)(y'i-y'~) y'^ (y'^i-y'i)2

Page 18 of 29
369540810.xls Exponential Calcs
10/23/2017
PM concentration
PM CEMS mg/m3
response Measured Transformed CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x y y' = Ln(y) (xi-x~)2 (y'i-y'~)2 (xi-x~)(y'i-y'~) y'^ (y'^i-y'i)2

Sum 227.1 24.4 224.9 68.754 111.907 13.067


Mean 7.28 16.22 1.74 y^ at mean x = 1.740

PS-11 Correlation Test


Calculation Spreadsheet
Version 2-6 10/25/04

Page 19 of 29
369540810.xls Exponential Calcs
10/23/2017
RESULTS OF EXPONENTIAL CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

Correlation equation: y= 0.152 e ### x

Variable Equation Value


n Number of data points = 14 Summary of Acceptance Criteria for PS-11
x~ x~ = 1/n*(Sum of (xi)) = 7.28 Criterion Actual Allowable Acceptable?
Sxx Sxx = Sum((xi-x~)^2) = 224.9 Correlation coefficient 0.891 > 0.85 yes
y'~ y'~ = 1/n*(Sum of (y'i)) = 1.740 Confidence interval 12.27% < 10% no
Sy'y' Sy'y' = Sum((y'i-y'~)^2) = 68.75 Tolerance interval 60.5% < 25% no
Sxy' Sxy' = Sum((xi-x~)(y'i-y'~)) = 111.91 * Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.
b0' b0' = y'~-b1x~ = -1.882
b0 b0 = e^b0' = 0.152

PM Concentration
b1 b1 = Sxy'/Sxx = 0.498 Plot of Exponential Regression Curve
SL SL = SQRT(1/(n-2)(Sum(y'i^-y'i)^2)) = 1.043 30
y'^mean y'^ at mean x value = 1.740 f(x) = 0.1522710056 exp( 0.4976226142 x )
tf tf from table = 2.179 25

CI' CI' = tf*SL*SQRT(1/n) = 0.6076


LCL' LCL' = y~' - CI' 1.133 20
UCL' UCL' = y~' + CI' 2.348
CI CI = (e^UCL' - e^LCL')/2 3.681 15
EL Emission Limit = 30.0
CI% CI% =CI/EL*100% = 12.27% 10
n' n' = n = 14
vf vf from table = 1.515 5
un' un' from table = 1.186
kT kT = un'*vf = 1.798 0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
TI' TI' = kt*SL = 1.876 PM CEMS Response
LTL' LTL' = y~' - TI' -0.135
UTL' UTL' = y~' + TI' 3.616
TI TI = (e^UTL' - e^LTL')/2 18.164
TI% TI% = TI/EL*100% = 60.5%
Sy' Sy' = SQRT(Sy'y'/(n-1)) = 2.300 PS-11 Correlation Test
r2 r2 = 1-(SL^2/Sy'^2) = 0.794 Calculation Spreadsheet
r r = SQRT((1-SL^2/Sy'^2)) = 0.891 Version 2-6 ###
* Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.

369540810.xls Exponential Summary 10/23/2017


CALCULATIONS FOR POWER CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

PM concentration
PM CEMS response mg/m3
Measured Transformed Measured Transformed CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x x' = Ln(x) y y' = Ln(y) (x'i-x'~)2 (y'i-y'~)2 (x'i-x'~)(y'i-y'~) y'^ (y'I^-y'i)2
1 1.5524 0.440 0.09 -2.408 1.656 17.209 5.338 -1.588 0.6731
2 1.6151 0.479 0.09 -2.408 1.556 17.209 5.174 -1.485 0.8516
3 1.556 0.442 0.17 -1.772 1.650 12.337 4.512 -1.582 0.0363
4 1.6011 0.471 0.96 -0.041 1.577 3.173 2.237 -1.508 2.1515
5 7.7059 2.042 19.26 2.958 0.099 1.483 0.384 2.556 0.1616
6 8.3138 2.118 16.42 2.799 0.153 1.119 0.414 2.752 0.0021
10 7.6329 2.032 19.88 2.990 0.094 1.561 0.382 2.531 0.2100
11 7.2768 1.985 19.46 2.968 0.067 1.508 0.317 2.408 0.3141
12 7.1513 1.967 17.77 2.878 0.058 1.293 0.274 2.363 0.2648
13 11.9547 2.481 27.78 3.324 0.569 2.509 1.195 3.692 0.1350
14 13.0548 2.569 26.12 3.263 0.710 2.317 1.283 3.919 0.4313
15 11.3722 2.431 26.29 3.269 0.496 2.337 1.077 3.563 0.0861
16 10.7378 2.374 26.64 3.282 0.419 2.378 0.998 3.414 0.0174
17 10.391 2.341 26.16 3.264 0.377 2.322 0.936 3.329 0.0042

Page 21 of 29
369540810.xls Power Calcs
10/23/2017
PM concentration
PM CEMS response mg/m3
Measured Transformed Measured Transformed CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x x' = Ln(x) y y' = Ln(y) (x'i-x'~)2 (y'i-y'~)2 (x'i-x'~)(y'i-y'~) y'^ (y'I^-y'i)2

Page 22 of 29
369540810.xls Power Calcs
10/23/2017
PM concentration
PM CEMS response mg/m3
Measured Transformed Measured Transformed CALCULATED STATISTICAL PARAMETERS
Run x x' = Ln(x) y y' = Ln(y) (x'i-x'~)2 (y'i-y'~)2 (x'i-x'~)(y'i-y'~) y'^ (y'I^-y'i)2

Sum 227.1 24.4 9.48 68.75 24.520 5.339


Mean 1.73 1.74 y^ at mean x = 1.740

PS-11 Correlation Test


Calculation Spreadsheet
Version 2-6 10/25/04

Page 23 of 29
369540810.xls Power Calcs
10/23/2017
RESULTS OF POWER CORRELATION

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

Correlation equation: y= 0.0655 x 2.5862


Variable Equation Value
n Number of data points = 14 Summary of Acceptance Criteria for PS-11
x'~ x'~ = 1/n*(Sum of (x'i)) = 1.727 Criterion Actual Allowable Acceptable?
Sx'x' Sx'x' = Sum((x'i-x'~)^2) = 9.48 Correlation coefficient 0.957 > 0.85 yes
y'~ y'~ = 1/n*(Sum of (y'i)) = 1.740 Confidence interval 7.57% < 10% yes
Sy'y' Sy'y' = Sum((y'i-y'~)^2) = 68.75 Tolerance interval 28.6% < 25% no
Sx'y' Sx'y' = Sum((x'i-x'~)(y'i-y'~)) = 24.52 * Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.
b0' b0' = y'~-b1x~ = -2.725
b0 b0 = e^b0' = 0.066
b1 b1 = Sx'y'/Sx'x' = 2.586

PM Concentration
SL SL = SQRT(1/(n-2)(Sum(y'i^-y'i)^2)) = 0.667 Plot of Power Function Regression Curve
y'^mean y'^ at mean x value = 1.740
30
tf tf from table = 2.179 f(x) = 0.0655499284 x^2.5862212595
CI' CI = tf*SL*SQRT(1/n) = 0.388 25
LCL' LCL' = y~' - CI' 1.352
UCL' UCL' = y~' + CI' 2.129 20
CI CI = (e^UCL' - e^LCL')/2 2.270
EL Emission Limit = 30.0 15
CI% CI% =CI/EL*100% = 7.57%
n' n' = n = 14 10
vf vf from table = 1.515
un' un' from table = 5
1.186
kT kT = un'*vf = 1.798 0
TI' TI' = kTSL = 1.199 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
PM CEMS Response
LTL' LTL' = y~' - TI' 0.541
UTL' UTL' = y~' + TI' 2.940
TI TI = (e^UTL' - e^LTL')/2 8.595
TI% TI% = TI/EL*100% = 28.6%
Sy' Sy' = SQRT(Sy'y'/(n-1)) = 2.300 PS-11 Correlation Test
r2 r2 = 1-(SL^2/Sy'^2) = 0.916 Calculation Spreadsheet
r r = SQRT((1-SL^2/Sy'^2)) = 0.957 Version 2-6 10/25/04
* Indicates correlation coefficient is undefined.

369540810.xls Power Summary 10/23/2017


SELECTION OF BEST MODEL

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

Correlation Confidence interval Tolerance interval half Min/max within Does model meet all
Model > 0.85 ? < 10% ? < 25% ?
coefficient (a) half range percentage range percentage allowable range? criteria?
Linear 0.976 Yes 4.65% Yes 14.4% Yes (b) Yes
Polynomial 0.989 Yes 4.11% Yes 10.2% Yes Yes Yes
Logarithmic 0.986 Yes 3.63% Yes 11.2% Yes (b) Yes
Exponential 0.891 Yes 12.27% No 60.5% No (b) No
Power 0.957 Yes 7.57% Yes 28.6% No (b) No
(a) * indicates correlation coefficient is undefined; model does not satisfy criterion.
(b) Not applicable; criterion applies only to polynomial model.
Best model: Polynomial

PS-11 Correlation Test


Calculation Spreadsheet
Version 2-6 10/25/04

369540810.xls Best Model 10/23/2017


PREDICTED PM CONCENTRATIONS

Facility: Alcoa Emission Unit: UNIT2


Location: Newsburgh, IN Test Dates: 0

PM CEMs Predicted PM concentrations (y), in units of : mg/m3


response (x) Linear Polynomial Logarithmic Exponential Power
4 7.7 9.0 11.9 1.1 2.4
5 10.3 12.1 14.7 1.8 4.2
6 12.9 15.0 17.1 3.0 6.7
7 15.5 17.6 19.0 5.0 10.1
8 18.1 20.0 20.7 8.2 14.2
9 20.7 22.1 22.2 13.4 19.3
10 23.3 23.9 23.6 22.1 25.3
11 25.9 25.5 24.8 36.3 32.3
12 28.5 26.8 25.9 59.7 40.5
13 31.1 27.9 26.9 98.2 49.8
14 33.7 28.7 27.9 161.5 60.4
15 36.3 29.2 28.7 265.7 72.1
16 38.9 29.5 29.6 437.0 85.2
17 41.5 29.5 30.3 718.7 99.7
18 44.1 29.3 31.1 1182.2 115.6
19 46.7 28.8 31.8 1944.5 133.0
20 49.3 28.0 32.4 3198.2 151.8
21 51.9 27.0 33.0 5260.5 172.2
22 54.5 25.7 33.6 8652.5 194.3
23 57.1 24.1 34.2 14231.7 217.9
24 59.7 22.3 34.7 23408.4 243.3
25 62.3 20.2 35.3 38502.2 270.4
26 64.9 17.9 35.8 63328.7 299.2
27 67.5 15.3 36.3 104163.5 329.9
28 70.1 12.4 36.7 171328.8 362.4
29 72.6 9.3 37.2 281802.7 396.9
30 75.2 5.9 37.6 463510.8 433.2
31 77.8 2.3 38.0 762385.5 471.6
32 80.4 -1.6 38.4 1253976.5 511.9
33 83.0 -5.8 38.8 2062548.4 554.4 PS-11 Correlation Test
34 85.6 -10.2 39.2 3392492.5 598.8 Calculation Spreadsheet
35 88.2 -14.9 39.6 5579993.0 645.5 Version 2-6 10/25/04

369540810.xls Predicted Values 10/23/2017


VALUES FOR STATISTICAL PARAMETERS

df tf vf un' (75)
3 3.182 2.920 1.266
4 2.776 2.372 1.247
5 2.571 2.089 1.233
6 2.447 1.915 1.223
7 2.365 1.797 1.214
8 2.306 1.711 1.208
9 2.262 1.645 1.203
10 2.228 1.593 1.198
11 2.201 1.551 1.195
12 2.179 1.515 1.192
13 2.160 1.485 1.189
14 2.145 1.460 1.186
15 2.131 1.437 1.184
16 2.120 1.418 1.182
17 2.110 1.400 1.181
18 2.101 1.384 1.179
19 2.093 1.370 1.178
20 2.086 1.358 1.177
21 2.080 1.346 1.175
22 2.074 1.335 1.174
23 2.069 1.326 1.173
24 2.064 1.316 1.172
25 2.060 1.308 1.172
26 2.056 1.300 1.171
27 2.052 1.293 1.170
28 2.048 1.286 1.170
29 2.045 1.280 1.169
30 2.042 1.274 1.168
31 2.040 1.268 1.168
32 2.037 1.263 1.167
33 2.035 1.258 1.167
34 2.032 1.253 1.166
35 2.030 1.248 1.166
36 2.028 1.244 1.165
37 2.026 1.240 1.165
38 2.024 1.236 1.165
39 2.023 1.232 1.164
40 2.021 1.228 1.164
41 2.020 1.225 1.164
42 2.018 1.222 1.163
43 2.017 1.218 1.163
44 2.015 1.215 1.163
45 2.014 1.212 1.163
46 2.013 1.210 1.162
47 2.012 1.207 1.162
48 2.011 1.204 1.162
49 2.010 1.202 1.162
50 2.009 1.199 1.161
51 2.008 1.197 1.161

Page 27 of 29
369540810.xls Stats Table
10/23/2017
df tf vf un' (75)
52 2.007 1.195 1.161
53 2.006 1.192 1.161
54 2.005 1.190 1.161
55 2.004 1.188 1.160
56 2.003 1.186 1.160
57 2.002 1.184 1.160
58 2.002 1.182 1.160
59 2.001 1.180 1.160
60 2.000 1.179 1.160
61 2.000 1.177 1.159
62 1.999 1.175 1.159
63 1.998 1.174 1.159
64 1.998 1.172 1.159
65 1.997 1.170 1.159
66 1.997 1.169 1.159
67 1.996 1.167 1.159
68 1.995 1.166 1.159
69 1.995 1.165 1.158
70 1.994 1.163 1.158
71 1.994 1.162 1.158
72 1.993 1.160 1.158
73 1.993 1.159 1.158
74 1.993 1.158 1.158
75 1.992 1.157 1.158
76 1.992 1.156 1.158
77 1.991 1.154 1.158
78 1.991 1.153 1.158
79 1.990 1.152 1.157
80 1.990 1.151 1.157
81 1.990 1.150 1.157
82 1.989 1.149 1.157
83 1.989 1.148 1.157
84 1.989 1.147 1.157
85 1.988 1.146 1.157
86 1.988 1.145 1.157
87 1.988 1.144 1.157
88 1.987 1.143 1.157
89 1.987 1.142 1.157
90 1.987 1.141 1.157
91 1.986 1.140 1.157
92 1.986 1.139 1.156
93 1.986 1.138 1.156
94 1.986 1.138 1.156
95 1.985 1.137 1.156
96 1.985 1.136 1.156
97 1.985 1.135 1.156
98 1.984 1.134 1.156
99 1.984 1.134 1.156
100 1.984 1.133 1.156

Page 28 of 29
369540810.xls Stats Table
10/23/2017
PS-11 Correlation Test
Calculation Spreadsheet
Version 2-6
October 25, 2004

369540810.xls Version 10/23/2017