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Exploring Indonesian aquaculture futures

Suri S. Nhuong Van Tran. Chan CY. Program Report: 2015-39. as well as the contributions of a wide range of public. Stephen Hall and Sonny Koeshendrajana Citation This publication should be cited as: Phillips M. Henriksson PJG. private. Exploring Indonesian aquaculture futures. community and civil society members and organizations to the consultations and research. Institutions and Markets (PIM). EXPLORING INDONESIAN AQUACULTURE FUTURES Authors Michael Phillips. Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) and Livestock and Fish (L&F) for funding of the research. Malaysia: WorldFish. The participants in the 30–31 July 2015 Jakarta workshop are particularly thanked for their feedback on the research and contribution to the priority setting. Chin Yee Chan. WorldFish also recognizes the strong partnership with the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (MMAF) in Indonesia. Acknowledgments The authors thank the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the CGIAR Research Programs EXPLORING INDONESIAN AQUACULTURE FUTURES on Policies. Chadag Vishnumurthy Mohan. Mohan CV. Penang. Tran N. Rodriguez U-P. Patrik John Gustav Henriksson. 2 . U-Primo Rodriguez. Hall S and Koeshendrajana S. Sharon Suri. 2015.

CONTENTS Overview 4 Indonesian fisheries and aquaculture 5 Methodology 6 Conclusion 14 References 15 CONTENTS 3 .

and sustain the contribution fish makes to Indonesian food and nutritional security. WorldFish’s unique methodology can also be used in other national and regional contexts to help analyze future aquaculture growth pathways. To ensure that the anticipated growth of aquaculture remains both economically and ecologically sustainable. In Indonesia. and reducing fresh water use. additional employment. Indonesia is currently the fourth largest aquaculture producer globally. Aquaculture’s growth is necessary to meet future food and nutrition security requirements. but creates challenges for managing environmental impacts. as well as the opportunities and challenges these represent. sustainable aquaculture feeds. Increased investment in aquaculture for either export or domestic markets will generate more social and economic benefits. greater production volumes OVERVIEW and values. WorldFish and partners have applied a unique methodology to evaluate growth trajectories for aquaculture under various scenarios. OVERVIEW Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food production sector globally. all of which require significant investment and change from business-as-usual approaches. with production projected to double within the next 15–20 years. that these trends present. regional and global fish food systems. as well as the opportunities and challenges. and maintaining fish at affordable levels for resource-poor consumers. and be an industry with production values of USD 39.1 million metric tons per year. 4 . as well as to prioritize the investments needed to ensure economically and environmentally sustainable growth of aquaculture at the speed and scale needed.9 million full-time-equivalent jobs in production. creating jobs. The analysis indicates that aquaculture will overtake capture fisheries as the major source of fish in Indonesia before 2030 and that investment in aquaculture will be essential in order to increase domestic fish supplies and consumption.5 billion by 2030. This knowledge will enable us to better prioritize investments that will help ensure the sustainable development of the sector. Three particular environmental challenges emerge around land and habitats. All aquaculture growth projections modeled in Indonesia increase environmental impacts. we need to better understand the likely patterns of growth. Future growth of aquaculture is essential to providing sustainable supplies of fish in national. Business-as- usual projections indicate that aquaculture will grow to more than 10. and higher consumption among domestic consumers. maintain affordable fish prices for domestic consumers. create 8. and the sector needs to grow to meet future fish demand.

By volume. Tilapia. but landings have nutrition security. 5 . Historically. domestically consumed species assess environmental tradeoffs among different such as tilapia and milkfish. At present. land managers and communities to but by value. to domestic fish supplies. sustainable aquaculture growth that mitigates catfish and milkfish are increasingly important impacts to ecosystems. Indonesian of future trends that would enable decision- INDONESIAN FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE aquatic production is dominated by seaweeds. and national slowed over the last decade. with farming in development. together with growth options and develop public policies and export-oriented commodities such as shrimp investments to create economic opportunity for and tuna. Indonesia.4 million people Its purpose was to increase understanding in Indonesia in 2012. brackish and fresh water. employment. are of greater importance. is not secure. including tuna and sardines. fears of additional stock collapses for several important species. There are also economic growth. yet its future sustainable growth marine. Aquaculture is given a high priority by Aquaculture has in turn become the main the Indonesian government for further driver for production increases. rendering seafood trade an important methodology for analyzing the future of income source for Indonesia. makers. INDONESIAN FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE Indonesia provides a good model for 38% of aquatic production is intended for developing and applying a common export. This evaluation draws upon multiple analytical tools and a collaboration Capture fisheries and aquaculture directly between Indonesian and WorldFish researchers. Aquatic food aquaculture. most fish supply has products therefore contribute to food and come from capture fisheries. employed an estimated 6. almost Photo Credit: Mike Lusmore/Duckrabbit Grouper farming in Aceh.

systems and practices. to grow in the future. were quantified using life cycle assessments. Step 1: System characterization Environmental. 6 . key data for modeling. The economic viability and value of farming In light of these considerations. employment in Indonesia. feed mills and link certain farming practices with specific other value chain actors on Java. 1 2 3 4 5 Fish supply System Future Analyzing Setting and demand characterization scenarios implications priorities modeling Figure 1. Sumatra. financial security and process of analysis and consultations (Figure 1). • Current projections for future aquaculture Economic. but it needs to grow and a benchmark for identifying opportunities sustainably. participatory approaches. This required collection and integration of quantitative data Social. Environmental interactions The Indonesian aquaculture sector is diverse. Approach to developing toolset and recommendations. showing various differences across Lombok and South Sulawesi during 2015. The life cycle assessment results and consultations with farmers. impacts. social responsibility were evaluated. a mix of domestic production and exports. contributing positively to fish for improvement across key economic. catering to domestic and export consumers and Life cycle assessment is a standardized demand. social METHODOLOGY application of tools through a structured goods in terms of equity. In The methodology involves a stepwise addition to estimating job numbers. we adopted systems were evaluated by the monetary value an approach that combined econometric they generate at country level. Tilapia farming in ponds was the largest employer overall. The study first selected and examined environmental accounting tool that quantifies the key aquaculture commodities and farming environmental interactions throughout the systems (Figures 2 and 3) with data collected production line and scales these to a functional from secondary sources and through fieldwork unit (ISO 2006). METHODOLOGY The following challenges drove method The characterization process provided an development: understanding of the performance of current • Indonesian aquaculture production needs aquaculture systems. social supply while minimizing environmental and environmental dimensions. Aquaculture creates significant across several subject domains. The economic evaluation shows growth rarely consider the environmental that Indonesian aquaculture creates significant limits and management strategies needed to benefits for the Indonesian economy through offset potential environmental impacts. and also by the modeling of demand for fish supply with profits they provide for aquaculture businesses analysis of environmental impacts and and households. impacts.

one at national level • availability of environmental services (Jakarta) and two at provincial level (Lombok • increased frequency and scale of extreme and Makassar). three • water quality workshops were held.000 metric tons 544.000 metric tons 623. JAVA 36% 38% 50% 64% 60% MALUKU-PAPUA 10% SUMATRA 29% 43% 81% 33% KALIMANTAN SULAWESI 10% 70% 39% 6% 47% 14% 31% Figure 3. • pollution levels Between July and December 2014. emerged based on two key uncertainties: the natural environment and the socioeconomic Based on these uncertainties. 947.Step 2: Future scenarios Environmental uncertainties include the Future scenarios for the fish food system in following: Indonesia were explored with stakeholders.000 metric tons 445. from the government.000 metric tons SEA BASS/SEA PERCH/ PANGASIUS CATFISH GROUPER BARRAMUNDI Cages (100%) Cages (100%) Cages Fresh-water (11%) ponds (89%) Figure 2. four scenarios enabling environment.000 metric tons 7. emerged for the Indonesian fisheries and aquaculture sectors in 2030 (Figure 4). the private sector. Indonesia aquaculture regions (with percentages of national production). research and nongovernmental organizations.000 metric tons 19. Indonesian aquaculture systems. an integrated scenario frame investment.000 metric tons 575. Uncertainties in the socioeconomic enabling and communities worked together through environment include the following: a structured process to arrive at a series of • evolution of market conditions. 7 . At each workshop. • extent to which the financial regulatory climate is supportive for growth Drawing on conclusions from the three • availability of broad infrastructure workshops. policies and scenarios for the Indonesian fish food system in regulations 2030. participants weather events due to climate change.000 metric tons TILAPIA SHRIMP MILKFISH CLARIAS CATFISH CARP METHODOLOGY Cages Fresh-water Cages Fresh-water Brackish-water ponds (100%) (11%) ponds (89%) (10%) ponds (90%) Brackish-water ponds (100%) Floating cage Fresh-water ponds (78%) nets (24%) 411.

with fish and shrimp disease Vietnam and Malaysia have led to reduced foreign direct outbreaks being dealt with quickly. • High domestic prices for fish make it unaffordable for • Government invests in infrastructure. and compliance have failed to materialize. and the export has remained low and prices have begun to rise dramatically. to finance. export-oriented markets have collapsed. • New legislation to control pollution and ensure good • Fisheries and aquaculture sectors are thriving. • Fisheries reforms set clear limits to fisheries exploitation. productivity have led to a rise in substandard production practices that result in food safety. • Many parts of the aquaculture industry have suffered • Increasing financial costs of production and declining declines in production and profitability. • Post-2020. supply resource-poor domestic consumers is being met. • Opportunities and more favorable tax regimes in • Biosecurity has improved. limiting productivity • Finance reforms improve access of fish farmers of existing operations. especially seaweed farming. global fish food system. and the fish that is produced is of low quality and limited to local consumption. • Between 2015 and 2020. technical and extension services. Figure 4. Perceived as too high risk by investors. the performance of the Indonesian • Compliance with fisheries and aquaculture regulations is economy has deteriorated. Indonesian aquaculture and fisheries products have By 2030. infrastructure. land use has been implemented and enforced. services to aquaculture operators function well. • Reduction of government revenue has hampered the • The frequency of aquatic animal disease outbreaks has ability of local and provincial governments to provide increased. Indonesia has emerged as a new powerhouse in the become significantly less competitive in global markets. and extension • Arrangements for providing technical advice and Environment services have been curtailed. Socioeconomic enabling environment Heavy weather Fighting the tide METHODOLOGY By 2030. • Legislation to control environmental pollution and • Poor water quality and increased outbreak of disease pose ensure good land-use practice has been enacted. labor law and environmental violations. market is thriving. research and development. the inability to meet environmental and food safety By 2030. incidence of toxic algal blooms. provincial range of industry sectors. but the challenges for human consumption and the productivity investments needed to ensure appropriate monitoring of finfish and shellfish. • Several major infrastructure projects have been completed. investment in feed and seed supply. and national levels stopped aquaculture growth. leading to • Environmental regulations set clear expectations for the expansion of aquaculture operations throughout the environmental performance for aquaculture. demand for fish products has increased. The demand for fish for both rich and Domestically. • Unclear permit systems and outdated regulations for • High nutrient loading in coastal waters has increased the fisheries reduced capture fisheries productivity by 2025. fish production has collapsed. Indonesia’s efforts to build a reputation as a provider Natural standards has decreased Indonesia’s competitiveness in the global of safe. resource-poor and lower-middle-class consumers. ineffective aquaculture policy • Availability of capital has stimulated growth in a wide coordination and planning between the local. Scenarios for the future of Indonesian fish food systems. high-quality seafood have been questioned and export fish trade. 8 . and further investments in monitored and enforced. country. Missed opportunity Blue growth By 2030.

Aquaculture becomes growth is seen across all commodities. in aquaculture outputs and increasing fish • Disease outbreaks occur in shrimp and carp prices. best consumption outcomes and lower • An export-oriented aquaculture industry consumer prices. grouper and tilapia (FP2). with a gradual recovery after a 5-year period (FP5). 2008). driving increases in • Constrained aquaculture growth reduces fish production of shrimp. with highest production Under business-as-usual projections. • An emphasis on domestic aquaculture • Capture fisheries landings remain stagnant commodities increases fish supply. population. 9 .9% growth annually î ì ì î î Fish consumer and producer prices 6. shows stronger growth. supply and leads to undesirable increases • A domestic-oriented aquaculture industry in domestic prices and decreasing domestic shows higher growth. aquaculture result in a short-term reduction • Aquaculture growth slows down (FP4). production of milkfish.6% growth annually è ì ì î î Fish consumption 2.Step 3: Fish supply and demand modeling 2030. The expected to increase (Figure 5). but Five alternative future projections were also helps lower domestic prices and thus modeled using the following assumptions: increase consumption. input and output prices. catfish and • Disease outbreaks in shrimp and carp METHODOLOGY tilapia (FP3). Strong 5. aquaculture in the year 2018. carp. A business-as-usual projection the influence of aquaculture growth (Table 1): assumes that exogenous variables of the model (income. follow historical trends. overtaking capture different emphases depending on the focus on fisheries as the main supplier of fish by export or domestic supply (Figure 6).3% growth annually î ì ì î î Fish import 7. Fish consumption and prices (for both The future supply and demand for fish was consumers and producers) show an upward analyzed using a partial economic equilibrium trend. with increasingly dominant.8% growth annually è è è è è Table 1. Business as usual FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 FP5 Capture fisheries 2.0% growth annually î è è è è Aquaculture 5. driving increases in consumption. lowering fish consumption. • An emphasis on export aquaculture results in higher fish supply and exports.3% growth annually ì î î ì ì Fish export 2. Aquaculture growth is significant under all realistic assumptions. capture levels projected when investment in aquaculture fisheries and aquaculture grow at 2% and for domestic consumption is prioritized. Fish food system trends according to business as usual and five future projections. model was used to explore future fish supply- demand dynamics and the role of aquaculture Modeling using other assumptions provides in meeting food and nutrition goals for insight into Indonesian fish food systems and Indonesia. Net trade (exports less imports) is also model called AsiaFish (Dey et al. capture increasing fish prices and decreasing fish fisheries and aquaculture productivity growth) consumption. providing (FP1).6% annually (Table 1). • Stagnating capture fisheries lead to food and non-food price indexes.

000 Business as usual aquaculture FP1 total 25. Production values for the seven major outcomes for the country. Our toolset showed generate significant new employment that an export-oriented aquaculture industry opportunities in Indonesia by 2030. most drastically under future projections for however. Aquaculture’s growth will environmental impacts.000 FP4 aquaculture FP5 total 5000 FP5 aquaculture 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Year Figure 5. shifting on three dimensions: employment. Business as usual total 30. 10 . Environmental impacts increase USD 43. aquaculture characterization provides new However. Environmental aquaculture commodities are projected to rise impacts from aquaculture production increase from USD 5. require substantial new investment export and domestic-oriented aquaculture. the life cycle assessments industry with substantially increased economic for future aquaculture highlight some stark value. lack easy access to finance. such as processing and retailing.9 billion respectively. almost matched this value people will be employed on aquaculture by having larger quantities compensating farms by 2030 if export and/or domestic. The analysis focused the growth of these two sectors. Business as has potential to generate the largest monetary usual creates 8. Aquaculture’s growth will create an suited to aquaculture.000 FP1 aquaculture FP2 total 20.5 billion significantly over 2012 levels under all growth in 2030 under business as usual. but higher. economic emphasis towards species such as Pangasius. Environmental. seed and services.9 billion in 2012 to USD 39.000 FP2 aquaculture Metric tons FP3 total 15. While much of Indonesia is well Economic. Tilapia farming is expected to more than 80% of aquaculture farms in be a major employer in the future. with in farm infrastructure and operations. will investment policies for this part of the sector provide proportionally more jobs in supporting need special attention. and environmental implications. Clarias and tilapia. a constraint in the availability of insights into the future opportunities and low-value fish for feed is expected to limit METHODOLOGY challenges for aquaculture. Achieving this will. Indonesia. Step 4: Analyzing implications Grouper and shrimp production will grow and Combining the modeling results with the provide larger revenues per unit of volume. shrimp aquaculture being most stark. and value species. however. such as shrimp and grouper. as well as increase in use of fresh water for brackish-water supply industries such as feed. with export and projections and across all major impact domestic-oriented aquaculture policies generating categories. in some cases by up to 800% higher production values of USD 50.4 billion and (Figure 7). The future projection driven by domestic levels of 2. for the lower values per tonnage. Projected future fisheries and aquaculture production volumes. up from current value. industries.7 million. Approximately 15 million demand. Small oriented growth policies for aquaculture are aquaculture enterprises.9 million jobs. currently comprising implemented. Value additions for domestic markets can help boost profits while limiting Employment.000 FP3 aquaculture FP4 total 10.

Three major environmental challenges emerge: The only solution that will allow for socioeconomic prosperity while limiting • Land area is insufficient to support environmental impacts is therefore a significant aquaculture growth under business as transformation to sustainable farming usual and high domestic or export-oriented practices in Indonesia.000 square kilometers of particular. particularly marine fish and oils. respectively. Therefore. Continuation of current practices will require over 7. investments in increasing efficiencies of feed should be a priority. Expansion needs to be carefully managed. Intensification in use of land resources. greater than the land area of Java—clearly unlikely. alternative protein sources must be found. and 16. Brackish-water aquaculture expansion in particular could put severe pressure on fresh water. land and water use in METHODOLOGY require nearly 95. This demand would require all Indonesian fisheries catches to be transformed into ingredients for aquaculture feed by 2030. given the high social and ecological value of Indonesia’s remaining coastal forests and wetlands.9 million metric tons under export and domestic-oriented growth pathways. land for production and inputs by 2030. • Aquaculture feeds currently rely on ingredients sourced from agriculture and marine ecosystems.8 million metric tons of marine fish as feed ingredients by 2030 under business-as-usual projections. 11 . will be essential.4 and 11. 20 15 Million metric tons 10 5 0 Business as usual FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 FP5 Shrimp Milkfish Clarias Pangasius Tilapia Grouper Others Figure 6. and strong controls on usage and efficiencies are needed. • Freshwater use needs to be reduced substantially. along with stimulating growth projections. Business as usual will innovations in feed. combined with effective land-use policies. clearly an impossible and undesirable outcome. Projected aquaculture output by 2030.

including mitigating environmental also display shortcomings. The analyses described above show that Spatial planning requires reform to site successful growth of aquaculture can make a aquaculture in suitable areas. These analyses also provide are protected from aquaculture. Regulations insights into the future environmental challenges across feed. displays strong Accelerate innovation. Indonesian aquaculture is was employed to help guide the thinking at a made up of complex value chains. PO4 equivalent Business as usual FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 FP5 Figure 7. 12 . A availability. The structure of these value chains. require innovations in technology models. Aquaculture To arrive at these priorities. Logistics pathways. The changes needed to regional diversification. fish health. many with limited transparency. METHODOLOGY Step 5: Setting priorities Reform spatial planning and regulations. where investment options grow the aquaculture sector along sustainable need to be tailored to local conditions. which poses both opportunities and challenges The following top five priorities emerged: for investors. Attract private sector investment. water use and waste implied by such growth. a clear set of priorities for action and investment. making transportation impacts associated with feeds and land and expensive and increasing waste. Global warming. sustainable aquaculture production to investment and scaling. CO2 equivalent 1000% 800% 600% 400% Fresh water use. a generic impact needs substantial new investment to grow to pathway for aquaculture development (Figure 8) the scale required. investment reforms. improved data and investment across multiple domains. and partnerships among the public new private and public sector partnership and private sectors are necessary to stimulate mechanism was proposed to accelerate private sector investment into low-impact aquaculture research and connect innovations technologies. hectares Eutrophication. encourage significant contribution to the future food and intensification of existing areas. in many areas final stakeholder consultation meeting. Deciding how best to management need review and reform in ways meet the aquaculture growth imperative while that mitigate environmental impacts and addressing the sustainability challenges requires incentivize efficiencies and improvement. SO2 equivalent 200% 0% Land use. dominated by small and medium enterprises. and efficient value chains. New business water use. and ensure nutritional security and economic development critical and sensitive habitats such as mangroves needs of Indonesia. km3 Acidification. The increase in five key environmental impacts over 2012 levels associated with business as usual and different future projections.

including major Indonesian aquaculture profitability and reduction of environmental industry associations. regulations. Generic theory of change for sustainable growth of aquaculture. particularly to reach the large numbers of small and medium aquaculture enterprises in the country. sector. managerial and technical skills Improve responses to changing circumstances Develop and adopt improved technologies Action areas Outcomes and metrics Outcomes Metrics Figure 8. Environmental performance in Indonesian Government at all levels requires an increased aquaculture can be substantially improved emphasis on enforcement of laws and using current knowledge and technology. public and production sectors. impacts. Intensified investment in training and outreach. is necessary in the short term. Feed. as well as partnerships involving private. 13 . combined with more effective and water.Improve existing aquaculture operations. Aquaculture Improve access to market and trade information Strengthen/grow More Increase effectiveness of producer or marketing organizations existing operators Increased number of profitable Improve access to quality seed Create new operators operators Increased incomes Improve access to high-quality and and employment Strengthen METHODOLOGY sustainably produced feeds aquaculture supply chain Improve supply chain and marketing infrastructure Strengthen Increased and more Increase security and equity of access to markets equitable access to land and water fish to eat Improve policy and regulatory environment Drive sustainability Ecosystem services Improve access to financial services standards maintained Increase adaptive Improved Increase value-added processing and capacity environmental improve compliance with quality standards efficiencies Improve management of land and water Ensure equitable Increased incomes welfare distribution and employment Better Improve business. land and wastes can all be managed responsible self-regulation within the private better. leading to increased efficiencies. Improve compliance and enforcement.

while not definitive. The learning from this research provides a foundation for future interventions in Indonesian fish food systems. have provided new understanding of the future supply and demand for seafood in Indonesia stretching to 2030. as well as a suite of methodologies that can be applied more widely for insightful analyses of aquaculture growth trajectories in other countries or regions. investments and policies will be needed to secure growth and to mitigate the potential impacts on the natural environment. but it is clear that whatever pathway is chosen. CONCLUSION 14 . transformational change in aquaculture systems. Aquaculture is essential for domestic fish supplies. These new analyses highlight stark challenges for the Indonesian aquaculture sector as it grows to overtake fisheries within the next 10–15 years. Such analyses. and these results have been shared and used to engage key Indonesian stakeholders. CONCLUSION This study overlapped economic and environmental models with quantitative and participatory approaches to understand the future of aquaculture in Indonesia.

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Exploring Indonesian aquaculture futures. Program Report: 2015-39. Malaysia: WorldFish. Rodriguez U-P.This publication should be cited as: Phillips M. Contact Details: WorldFish. PO Box 500 GPO. MALAYSIA 100% www. Hall S and Koeshendrajana S. WorldFish. WorldFish. 2015. Suri S. Chan CY. 10670 Penang. but with acknowledgment to.org RECYCLED Paper made from Photo credits: Front & back cover.worldfishcenter. © 2015. Tran N. This publication may be reproduced without the permission of. Penang. Henriksson PJG. All rights reserved. Mohan CV. Mike Lusmore/Duckrabbit recycled material .