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Problem 1.

7 2

6 3

5 4

The system from figure 1 operates as long as there are no two faulty adjacent bulbs. Thus, the

illumination system is redundant being able to operate with 1, 2 or 3 faulty bulbs with the

condition that the two bulbs are not adjacent. For the non-redundant version of the system

four bulbs are necessary with the condition that all bulbs to be functional.

Solution:

The probability of one bulb failure in a given time interval is . We evaluate the reliability

improvement of the redundant version of the system over the non-redundant version.

= 1 with the condition that none of the four bulbs being faulty.

b) For the redundant version, the complexity of the analysis increases which implies a

systematic approach.

- , , failures of any bulbs happen in the given time interval and the other 7 bulbs

remain operational;

First, we check that the set , , ,, represents a complete set of events. Indeed, the

following conditions are fulfilled:

= , , ! 0,1,2, ,7 , !

is the true event because all failure possibilities are included

)

' =( 1 any bulbs fails;

Now we need to check that the sum of the probabilities of the 8 events is 1.

,

+ + ( 1 + = 1 + = 1 = 1 (Newton binomial)

Using the probabilities of these events, we can determine the reliability function of the

redundant system considering the favorable situations:

2 1

. =' +' + ' + ' 1

3 5

We determine the ratios used for ' and ' 1 calculation. For doing this, the ratio

between the favorable cases and the number of possible cases should be determined.

Event is the total number of combinations when 2 bulbs fail and the others remain

operational. Thus, the value of =( = = 21. From these, 7 situations are not favorable

determining the system to stop operating: 1,2 , 2,3 , 3,4 , 6,7 and 7,1 .

)

Finally we have the rapport: ' = = = 1.

When the first bulb fails, all remaining bulbs are numbered ascending starting with the faulty

bulb. For the next two bulbs that fail later we consider the following combinations:

2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,7 - first line is excluded because 2 is adjacent to 1

4,5 4,6 4,7 - first column is excluded because all pairs are adjacent

5,6 5,7

6,7

1

We have to take into account the following rapport: =,

,

, , 1

. = 1 +7 1 +1 1 +, 1 implies that:

1

, 1

. = 1 +7 1 + 14 1 +7 1

The redundancy efficiency is evaluated using the ratio between the failure probability of the

non-redundant system and the failure probability of the redundant system.

) 89:;

567 = (If 567 > 0 using redundant elements was a good idea)

) <;

Homework:

1. Compute the reliability increasing index for = 0.1; = 0.05; = 0.03 and = 0.01

1

0 q

Figure 2. Functions . and variation

The figure 2 shows that the values for the redundant system are higher than the values for the

non-redundant system.

, ! 1,2, , @ , ! and ? is the true event) than the occurrence probability of any

event can be calculated using the relation: ' = ' |? ' ?

' |? ' |?

? ? ?

' ? ' ? ' ?

When the event take place it makes sense to determine the probability of event A

occurrence respecting the conditions expressed as ? , = 1, @.

In order to fulfill this goal we should apply the Bayes rule expressed by the formula:

B(C|DE B(DE

' ?| = (Bayes Rule)

B(C

Prove:

B(DE C

'(? |

B(C

B(CDE

Known that '( |? B(DE

=> '( ? = '( |?G '(?

we deduced: '(? | = = =

B(C B(C B(C

Problem 2.

When using a communication channel affected by noise, sometimes the transmitted logical 0

could be interpreted at the receiver as logical 1 and a transmitted logical 1 could be

interpreted as a logical 0.

The probability that a logical 0 to be correctly received is 0.91, while the probability that a

logical 1 to be received correctly is 0.94.

It is known that 45 % of the data transmitted on the communication channel are logical 0 bits.

To be determined:

- The probability that an error will appear when transmitting bits using the communication

channel affected by noise.

Solution:

The valid events for the problem solving are:

, , H | ,H | ,H ,H

For these events we must calculate their occurrence probability. Thus we have to know in the

first place the stochastic model that describes the operation of the channel affected by noise.

' H H

' H H

Figure 4. The stochastic model of the affected channel by noise

For knowing completely the operation of the communication channel affected by the noise we

must know la following probabilities: ' H , ' H , ' |H , ' |H , ' |H , and

' |H

The problem states that ' H = 0.45, ' |H = 0.94, ' |H = 0.91

For ' and ' we apply the total probability formula for the events set H J@K H }.

' =' |H ' H + ' |H ' H = 0.94 0.55 + 0.09 0.45 = 0.517 + 0.0405 =

= 0.5575

' =' |H ' H + ' |H ' H = 0.91 0.45 + 0.06 0.55 = 0.4425

B L |ML B ML .N .,,

' |H = = = 0.9274 (1)

B L .,, ,

B O |MO B MO .N . ,

' H| = = = 0.9254 (2)

B O . ,

Using the last two equations we deduce that: ' H | = 1' H | = 0.0726

= 0.09 0.45 + 0.06 0.55 = 0.0405 + 0.033 = 0.0735

Alternatively:

' PQQRQ = ' H | '( + '(H | '( = 0.0726 0.5575 + 0.0746 0.4425

= 0.07348

The value of '(PQQRQ implies that 7.35 % of bits are affected by the communication

channel. The solution of this problem is to introduce control bits that allow the detection of

the bits affected by the noise.

Homework solution:

1

567 =

1 .

= (1

, 1

= (1 + 7 (1 + 14 (1 +7 (1

0.6561 0.8145 0.8853 0.9606

. 0.9376 0.9834 0.9939 0.9993

567 5.5115 11.1747 18.8033 56.2857

0 q

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