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Science

Introduction

Preet Kanwal

Assistant Professor

Department of CSE

PESU Bangalore

Talks about Data Science

Data Science is an emerging area of work.

Universities are oering masters courses in

data science.

Without Data Science the business will be

treated as dead man walking without a heart,

a soul and a mind.

Talks about Data Science

Harvard business review dubbed it as The Sexiest

Job of 21st Century.

Talks about Data Science

The demand for Data Scientists has grown by 350% in the past

five years, and is predicted to continue to rise sharply.

Applications Data Science

1. Internet Search

Applications Data Science

1. Entertainment

Applications Data Science

2. Recommender Systems

Applications Data Science

3. Image Recognition

Applications Data Science

4. Price Comparison Websites

Applications Data Science

5. Airline Route Planning

Applications Data Science

*****Almost everywhere*****

(Below Poverty Line)?

Health Care: 1958, Smoking and death rates: It was found that

the death rates were higher among regular cigarette smokers

than aming the men who never smoked.

employees performance, decide employees bonus.

The next generation of scientic discovery

and technological innovation will be data-

driven. We live in an exponential world.

Is it Same as Big Data??

Science.

Data Science

;eld that deals with

from data in various forms

resource

Mathematics

Computer Science

Statistics

Two ways to approach

Data Science

1) Top Down Approach

2) Bottom- Up approach

Textbooks

For Concepts

Statistics for Engineers and Scientists

by William Navidi

McGraw Hill Education, 3rd Edition.

For Applications

Data Science From Scratch

By Joel Grus

ORielly, 1st Edition.

Statistics?

Technique of:

Collecting,

Analyzing,

Drawing conclusion from data.

statistics. Example:

1) Calculating average length of downtimes of a computer.

2) Data on no. Of persons attending a seminar.

3) Evaluating eectiveness of products.

4) Predicting reliability of a rocket.

5) Studying vibrations of airplane wings.

Origin of Statistics

Can be traced to two areas:

1) Game of Chance ( Probability)

2) Political Science

Types of Statistics

Data?

numbers, words, measurements,

observations or even just descriptions

of things.

Data Classication

Quantitative vs Qualitative

DATA

Quantitative or Numerical data, is numerical information (numbers).

"Quantitative is about Quantity"

Quantitative data can also be Discrete or Continuous.

(it describes something).

Discrete Data - counted

Discrete Data can only take certain values.

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Continuous Data - Measured

Continuous Data can take any value (within a range).

Census or Sample

A Census is when we collect data for every member of the group

(the whole "population").

A Sample is when we collect data just for selected members of the

group.

Census Sample

120 people in your

local football club

120) what their that are there this

age is afternoon

but may be good

enough.

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Population is the entire collection of objects.

objects that are actually observed.

Simple Random Sampling

SRS is not guaranteed to reflect the population

perfectly.

occasionally a sample is substantially different from

the population.

vary from each other as well.

Question

guaranteed to re0ect exactly the

population from which it was

drawn??

Question

A coin is tossed twice and comes up heads both times.

Someone says, There's something wrong with this coin.

A coin is supposed to come up heads only half of the

time not every time.

the coin?

reasonable to conclude that something is wrong with the

coin?

A coin is tossed twice and comes up heads both times.

Someone says, There's something wrong with this

coin. A coin is supposed to come up heads only half of

the time not every time.

the coin?

No. This could well be sampling variation.

reasonable to conclude that something is wrong with the

coin?

Yes. It is virtually impossible for sampling variation to

be this large.

Summary statistics

Helps make important features of a sample stand out.

(The average of the squared differences

from the Mean.)

Divides the sample in half (using the Standard Deviation we have a

"standard" way of knowing what is

normal, and what is extra large or extra

small.)

Range

occurring value)

Quartiles

IQR InterQuartile Range

Percentiles

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Median

positions (n/2 , n/2 + 1).

Median Application

Advantage of the median is that it is not influenced as

much by an outlier.

the data contains outliers.

Example:

report the median income.

small number of people with very high incomes (think

about the salaries of Bill Gates and Oprah).

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Variance and Standard

deviation:

for each sample_item in sample:

diff = (sample_item sample_mean).

sq_diff = square(diff) // as diff could be negative.

Total = total + sq_diff.

Variance = total / n 1.

Sample Variance - Whysquarethe

di5erences?

1. Add up the differences from the mean : the negatives cancel the positives:

4 + 4 4 4/4 = 0

2. Absolute values

|4| + |4| + |4| + |4| / 4 = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 /4 = 4

Oh No! It also gives a value of 4, Even though the differences are more spread out.

3. So let us try squaring each difference (and taking the square root at the end):

The Standard Deviation is bigger when the differences are more spread out ... just

what we want.

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Why divide by n 1 instead of n

(Bessels Correction)

population from which sample was drawn.

deviation from sample mean.

deviations around population mean.

Points to Ponder:

a) Sample mean increases or decreases by the same constant.

b) Sample variance and standard deviation are unaffected.

a) Sample mean is multiplied or divided by the same value.

b) Standard deviation is multiplied or divided by the same value.

Range = largest_value

smallest_value

Quartiles

1.First quartile ( Q1 ) is the median of the lower half of the data: 0.25(n

+1 )

1.Third quartile (Q3) is the median of the upper half of the data: 0.75( n

+ 1)

IQR InterQuartile Range

75% data is less than third quartile.

50% of data is in between first and third quartile.

data.

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Percentile

divides the sample so that as nearly as possible,

p% of the sample values are less than the pth percentile,

and (100 p%) are greater.

what we did for the quartiles.

To Find Percentiles

pth percentile.

Points to Ponder:

Question

2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 9, 11, 12, 15

2.What is the median?

3.Which is the mode?

4.What is the Standard Deviation?

5.What is the first quartile?

6.What is the third quartile?

7.What is the interquartile Range?

Pos 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Val 2 3 5 6 7 9 9 11 12 15

Mean = 7.9

( 7 + 9 )/2 = 16/2 = 8

Mode = 9

Question

2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 9, 11, 12, 15

a) What is the median?

b) Which is the mode?

c) What is the Standard Deviation?

d) What is the first quartile?

e) What is the third quartile?

f) What is the interquartile Range?

Question

Suppose we have the following data:

2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 9, 11, 12, 15

following:

a) What is the median?

b) Which is the mode?

c) What is the Standard Deviation?

d) What is the first quartile?

e) What is the third quartile?

f) What is the interquartile Range?

Points to Ponder:

1) If a constant is added/ subtracted from each item in the sample then :

a) Mean increases or decreases by the same constant.

b) Median increases or decreases by the same constant.

c) Standard Deviation remains the same.

d) Q1 increases or decreases by the same constant.

e) Q3 increases or decreases by the same constant.

f) IQR remains the same.

1) If a constant is multiplied/divided to/from each item in the sample then :

a) Mean multiplied or divided by the same constant.

b) Median multiplied or divided by the same constant.

c) Standard Deviation multiplied or divided by the same constant.

d) Q1 multiplied or divided by the same constant.

e) Q3 multiplied or divided by the same constant.

f) IQR multiplied or divided by the same constant.

Example of the data set where the standard deviation is

larger than the mean:

S = { 0, 0, 1, 15, 20)

the Items are equal.

Question

Consider the following data set (representing scores

in an examination)

67, 44, 60, 31, 15, 81, 77, 70, 84, 95, 91

1)Find mean

2)Find median

3)Find variance

4)Find standard deviation

5)Find range

6)Find first quartile

7)Find third quartile

8)Find IQR

9) Find 60th percentile

Pos 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Val 15 31 44 60 67 70 77 81 84 91 95

1. Mean = 715/ 11 = 65

2.Median = item in pos( 11 + 1 ) / 2 = item in pos 6 = 70

3. Variance = 6488 / 10 = 648.8

4. Standard deviation = sq_root(Variance) = sq_root(648.8) = 25.47

5. Range = highest value lowest value = 95 15 = 80

6. First quartile = 0.25 ( 12) = item in pos 3 = 44

7. Third quartile = 0.75 ( 12) = item in pos 9 = 84

8. IQR = third quartile first quartile = 84 44 = 40

9. 60th percentile = 0.60 (12) = 7.2 = avg of item in pos (7, 8) =

(77 + 81 ) / 2 = 79

True/False

1. For any list of numbers, half of them will be below the mean?

3. Is the sample mean always equal to one of the values in the sample?

4. Is the sample median always equal to one of the values in the sample?

True/False

1. For any list of numbers, half of them will be below the mean? (False)

2.Is the sample mean always the most frequently occurring value? (False)

3. Is the sample mean always equal to one of the values in the sample?

(False)

4. Is the sample median always equal to one of the values in the sample?

(False)

5. Is it possible for standard deviation of a list of numbers to be equal to 0?

(True)

6. Is it possible for standard deviation to be greater than mean? (True)

Question

pounds to kilograms

1 kg = 2.2 lb

A vendor converts the weights on the pacakges from

pounds to kilograms

1 kg = 2.2 lb

The mean will be divided by 2.2.

The standard deviation will be divided by 2.2.

Question

The vendor begins using heavier packaging, which

increases the weight of each package by 50g.

The vendor begins using heavier packaging, which

increases the weight of each package by 50g.

The mean will increase by 50 g.

The standard deviation will be unchanged.

Question

The smallest number on a list is changed from 12.9 to 1.29.

I. Mean changes ?

II.Median changes?

III.Standard deviation changes?

not if there are only two numbers on the list?

The smallest number on a list is changed from 12.9 to 1.29.

I. Mean changes ?

It is not possible to tell by how much the mean changes, because the

sample size is not known

II. Median changes?

If there are more than two numbers on the list, the median is

unchanged.

III. Standard deviation changes?

It is not possible to tell by how much the standard deviation changes,

both because the sample size is unknown and because the original

standard deviation is unknown.

only two numbers on the list?

Yes it is possible.

change_in_median = Old_median new_median =

(12.9 + x)/2 (1.29 + x)/2 = (12.9 1.29)/2 = 5.805

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Outliers

Outliers

Outliers are points that are much larger or smaller than the rest of the

sample points.

Outliers may be data entry errors or they may be points that really are

different from the rest.

sometimes calculations and analyses will be done with and without

outliers and then compared.

Outlier

1 2 3 4 5 200

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Identify the Outliers if any!

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Trimmed Mean

Trimmed Mean or Truncated

Mean

much like the mean and median.

statistical outliers. Helps eliminate the inGuence of data points

on the tails that may unfairly aect the traditional mean.

removing observations from each end of the ordered sample.

of a sample at the beginning and the end of the whole data, and

typically discarding an equal amount of both.

Facts

For most statistical applications, 5 to 25 percent of

the ends are discarded.

Under normality, the best possible amount of

trimming is zero.

However, in practical applications, there is no

guarantee that the observed sources are symmetric.

This method is best suited for data with large, erratic

deviations or extremely skewed distributions.

Median extreme case of trimmed mean.

Example

Mean trimmed 20% has 20% of the

largest numbers removed, and 20%

of the smallest numbers removed.

Problem 1: Find 10% trimmed

mean of :

121

Solution Problem 1

N=10

P=0.10,

k=np=1, n=10,p=0.10, k=np=1 which is

an integer so trim exactly one

observation at each end, since k=1.

Thus trim o 2 and 121. We are left with

R=n2k=102=8R=n2k=102=8

observations.

Problem 2: Find 15% trimmed

mean of :

121

Solution Problem 2

N=10

P=0.15,

integer so round the value to nearest whole no. K = 2

R=n2k=102(2)= 6 observations. (6, 7, 11, 21, 81,

90)

Usefulness

outliers than the mean.

tendency or mean for many

statistical models - robust estimator.

Application - Olympic

Judging

Judges rate skates on 0-to-10 scale (using any real number from 0 to

10). And note here we do not support anonymous judges (secret

ballots) we want all scores to be public.

The top K and bottom K scores for each skate are discarded (where K

is some pre-agreed constant)

Highest scoring skater wins the gold.

"trimmed mean" system, unfortunately can thereby discard some

important honest judgements. (Not all outliers represent corrupt

judges.) That is sad!!

Points to Ponder:

parameter.

Data

Visualization

Preet Kanwal

Assistant Professor

Department of CSE

PESU Bangalore

Outline

1. What is Data Visualization?

2. Histogram.

3. Bar Chart.

4. Pie Chart.

5. Line Chart.

Making predictions is not enough!

results, and communicate findings accurately to stakeholders to inform

business decisions.

effective communication of quantitative results by linking perception,

cognition, and algorithms to exploit the enormous bandwidth of the

human visual cortex.

In this course you will learn to recognize, design, and use effective

visualizations.

What is Data Visualization?

A form of visual communication

Helps people understand significance of data by placing it in a visual

context.

Patterns and trends are difficult if not impossible to detect by looking

at textual data.

Much easier to recognize with data visualization software.

Plots of various types

Info graphics

Maps, schematic diagrams (e.g. train routes)

Graphical Summaries

1. Histogram

2. Bar Chart

3. Pie Chart

4. Line Chart

5. Box plot

6. Scatter plot

Histogram

Histogram

Histogram

Gives an idea of the shape of a sample indicating regions where sample

points are concentrated and the regions where they are sparse.

For a single variable

- Histogram (visual plot of frequency distribution) is very helpful

- Choice of number of bins important histogram can be made to look

different by altering this.

Histogram construction

Construct frequency table:

- Divide the sample into groups class intervals or bins.

- Frequency = number of data points that fall into each of the

class intervals.

- Relative frequency of a class interval = frequency / total

number of data points

- (proportion of data points that fall into that interval)

- sum of all relative frequencies = 1

- If the class intervals are the same width, then draw a rectangle

for each class, whose height is equal to the frequencies or

relative frequencies.

- The data axis is marked here with the lower class limits. (x

axis)

- Frequency scales always start at zero ( y- axis)

Problem 1: Construct a histogram for

the following data set:

Problem 1: Construct a

histogram for

the following data set:

Problem 1 Solution

Problem 1 Solution:

What to look for in a

histogram

Is the distribution symmetric or skewed?

How many peaks does the histogram have, and where are they

located? (Is it unimodal or bimodal or multimodal?)

Are there any unusual characteristics?

What is the maximum data value as shown on the histogram?

(What is the largest value on the data axis?)

What is the minimum data value as shown on the histogram?

(What is the smallest value on the data axis?)

Does the histogram have any gaps, and if so, where are they

located? (Gaps are empty classes with bars on both sides.)

Does the histogram have any extreme values, and if so, where

are they located? (An extreme value is a bar with a large gap -

two or more classes - between it and the other bars.)

Symmetry and Skewness

long left-hand tail is Symmetric if its right said to be skewed to

said to be skewed to half is a mirror image of the right, or

the left, or negatively its left half. positively skewed.

skewed.

Modes

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Answer the questions for

the histogram shown below.

minimum = 0.

maximum = 500.

skewed right.

3 gaps:

a) between 100 and 150.

b) between 200 and 250.

c) between 300 and 400.

Since the last gap is twice as large, values between 400 and 500 are

extreme.

Problem 2: Construct a

histogram for

the following data set:

Problem 2: Construct a

histogram for

the following data set:

Problem 2 Solution

Problem 2 Solution:

Problem 3

Ammonium concentrations were measured at a total of 349 alluvial wells

in the state of Iowa. The mean concentration was 0.27, median was 0.10

and standard deviation was 0.40.

a) skewed to the right?

b) skewed to the left?

c) Approximately symmetric?

d) Undetermined?

Problem 3 solution

Ammonium concentrations were measured at a total of 349 alluvial wells

in the state of Iowa. The mean concentration was 0.27, median was 0.10

and standard deviation was 0.40.

a) skewed to the right?

b) skewed to the left?

c) Approximately symmetric?

d) Undetermined?

Also note that half the values are between 0 and 0.10, so the left-hand

tail is very short.

Problem 4

For the given data :

a) skewed to the left?

b) skewed to the right?

c) approximately symmetric?

Problem 4 solution

For the given data :

a) skewed to the left?

b) skewed to the right?

c) approximately symmetric?

(50th percentile) than the 15th percentile is. Therefore the histogram is

likely to have a longer left-hand tail than right-hand tail.

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Problem 5 -Iris Data Set

Attributes

sepal length in cm

sepal width in cm

petal length in cm

petal width in cm

species: {setosa, versicolour,

virginica}

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Problem 5 -Iris Data Set

Setosa

Virginica

Versicolor

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Problem 5 -Iris Data Set

1. For the entire dataset, print out the

minimum, mean, median and maximum

values for each attribute.

2. Generate a histogram for each numeric

attribute for the dataset.(ndivs = 10).

3. What are the distinguishing characteristics

of each of the histograms generated?

ProblemProblem

5 Solution:

5 Solution

Homework Iris DataSet

1. Generate histograms for each combination

of species and attribute. There should be

12 histograms (3 species x 4 attributes).

2. Is it possible to use the results from the

previous task to determine the species of

a plant based on the values of the

attributes? If so, explain how.

Homework Expected

Solution

Bar Charts

Histogram

Bar Chart

A bar chart is NOT a histogram

Histograms

Are used for quantitative data.

Show distributions of variables.

Display frequencies of ranges (intervals, bins).

Will appear dierent for dierent bin sizes.

Bar Charts

Are used for categorical data.

Show frequencies associated with categories.

Problem1: Dormant data set

Has 60 values.

Problem2: Iris data set

Has 150 values.

virginica.

Problem3: Glass data set

214 samples of glass

Building_windows_Goat_processed (BWF).

Building_windows_non_Goat_processed (BWNF).

Vehicle_windows_Goat_processed (VWF).

Vehicle_windows_non_Goat_processed (VWNF) (none in this

database).

Containers (Containers)

Tableware (Tableware).

Headlamps (Headlamps).

Pie Charts

Histogram

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Pie Charts

Circular graph that shows relative contribution from various

categories to overall total.

length

Youd think that pie charts would be so easy

to understand, but theres always someone

who doesn't get it .

Comparison by length

easier

Line Charts

Histogram

Line Charts

Displays continuous data over time.

Ideal for showing trends over time.

Useful for depicting relationship between

variables

x axis generally represents independent variable

(could be time)(categorical data)

y axis used to show dependent variable(s) (Value axis)

X and y axis are distributed evenly.

Problem1 Oil price data

set

Crude oil price data from 1/1/2014 to 9/5/2016.

Plot oil price.

Note that there as missing values.

Dealing with missing values.

Code replaces missing value by nan not a number.

matplotlib automatically ignores nan values.

What can you say about the trend from this plot?

What is the projection for this year?

Box plot

Histogram

Box Plots (Box and whiskers plot)

Good way to summarize large amounts of data.

Displays range and distribution of data along a number

line.

Consists of

Whiskers representing extent of distribution.

Outliers.

Five things needed to construct Box Plots

2)Find the median

3)Find First quartile median of the lower half of the data

4)Find Third quartile

5)Find lower and upper extremes.

IQR = Q3 - Q1

Lower_extreme = Q1 1.5 * IQR

Upper_extreme = Q3 + 1.5 * IQR

Drawing a Box Plot

1)Plot points for the five values above the number line.

2)Draw a vertical line from median, Q1, Q3.

3)Form a box by connecting vertical lines from Q1, Q2, Q3.

4)Draw the whiskers from the extremes to the box.

Note:

The whiskers do not extend to the minimum and maximum

of the sample, but to the smallest and largest values

inside a "reasonable" distance from the end of the box.

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Note on whisker length

Whisker length on both the sides is the same as you are

adding/subtracting same constant (1.5 IQR) to/from Q3/Q1

respectively.

set lower_extreme = min(data)

set upper_extreme = max(data)

Problem 1

given data.

Pos: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Val: 10.2 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6

Pos: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Prof. Preet Kanwal

Solution

1) Sample Size = 15

a) Q1 is the value of the 4th data points;

Q1 = 14.4

Q2 = 14.6

Q3 = 14.9

a) IQR = 14.9 14.4 = 0.5

b) Upper Extreme: Q3 + 1.5 * IQR = 15.65

c) Lower Extreme: Q1 1.5 * IQR = 13.65

.

Analyzing a Box Plot

1) Provides information about the distribution of data in the quartiles.

Shorter distance means data is bunched together.

Longer distance means data is spread out.

a distribution with a positive skew would have a longer whisker in the

positive direction than in the negative direction.

A larger mean than median would also indicate a positive skew.

2) Box plots are good at portraying extreme values and are especially good at

showing differences between distributions.

Comparitive boxplots

would be impossible for the histogram.

not lend itself to standard analysis can be identified.

Example:

Observations made:

those of C and D.

three samples.

is skewed to the right.

Problem 2

Problem 3

Problem 4

Problem 5

Problem 6

Problem 7

Problem 8

Problem 9

Problem 10

Problem 11 Match the following

Multivariate Data

Data consisting of

One variable only - univariate data

Two variables bivariate data

More than two variables multivariate data

dimensions?

Problem 1 Construct a Scatter Plot

Solution : Problem 1

Analyzing a Scatter Plot

The relationship between two variables is called their Correlation.

more variables fluctuate together.

The closer the data points come when plotted to making a straight line, the

higher the correlation between the two variables, or stronger the relationship.

decrease in parallel. A perfect positive correlation is given the value of 1.

the other decreases. A perfect negative correlation is given the value of -1.

The closer the number is to 1 or -1, the stronger the correlation, or the stronger

the relationship between the variables.

a value of 0.67, whereas something with an extremely weak negative correlation

might have the value -.21.

Example : Correlation

1) Perfect positive correlation : The total amount of money spent on tickets at

the movie theatre with the number of people who go.

with the distance of a car (travelling at constant speed) from that destination.

3) Strong but not perfect positive correlation: The number of hours students

spent studying for an exam versus the grade received.

Two people could spend the same amount of time studying and get

different grades.

But in general the rule will hold true that as the amount of time studying

increases so does the grade received.

Correlation is Not Causation

fluctuation in another variable, theres often a tendency to think

that means that the change in one causes the change in the other.

a correlation does not mean that one thing causes the other.

similarly.

Example 1: Correlation is Not Causation

correlation between "Studying an external course" and Sick

Days.

Example 2: Correlation is Not Causation

amount of television children watch and the likelihood that

they will become bullies.

supervision may be the influential factor.

Problem 2:

correlations.

Which graph would have a correlation of:

1) 0 ?

2) 0.7?

3) -0.7?

4) 0.3?

5) -0.3? Prof. Preet Kanwal

Prof. Preet Kanwal

The first graph seems to have a

pretty strong positive correlation,

so it would have a value of about

0.7. You can see that the band of

data points that is angled upward

is relatively thin so there is not a

whole lot of variation in the results

when one variable is entered.

The data points of the

second graph are much

more spread out, although

they definitely follow a

downward pattern.

Therefore, it would be a

good guess to say that this

is roughly a -0.3

correlation.

The third graph also

has a negative

correlation, but the

data points are much

tighter indicating a

higher correlation.

Therefore, this would

probably have a value

of about -0.7.

The fourth graph does

not seem to have a

correlation at all. There

is no pattern to where

the data points lie.

They do not seem to

go in any particular

direction. Therefore

this data has a

correlation value of 0.

The last graph appears

to have a positive

correlation, although

the data points are not

very close together.

This graph would

probably have a value

of 0.3.

Thank you !

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