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Isnihaya Hadji Salic Magumpara Grade 10 Electron

This paper presents an univariate model to forecast very short term demand for a large electricity
distributor in the Marawi City (LASURECO) by employing three time series modelling equations namely
ARIMA, Simple Exponential Smoothing, and Additive Holt-Winters Method with the help of SPSS software
based on the past 10 year monthly total electricity consumption (2007-2016) of the said place. According
to the study of M. Barros, C. Souza and C. Miranda, this method (time series mathematical modelling) is
highly adaptable and robust tool to forecast different horizons. The paper of J. Miranda in the scope of
Davao is one example.

The 2006-2016 total monthly electricity consumption data gathered from LASURECO was
tabulated in SPSS spread sheet. The plot showed that the behavior of the data is non-stationary, so it was
converted into stationary form by differencing method. Using their ACF (Auto Correlation Function) and
PACF (Partial Auto Correlation Function) plots, the lags provided the coefficients to be used in the three
equations. First, it was inputted to the ARIMA equation followed by Simple Exponential Smoothing and
lastly by Additive Holt-Winter. Then their BIC values were plotted.

In- sample forecasts reveal that the forecasts made by Additive Holt-Winter is superior in terms
of lowest the value of its BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion), followed by ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (1, 0, 0) and by
Simple Exponential Smoothing. Yet, even AHW has the lowest penalty errors, its first five residuals werent
captured which is an indication that in the long run it has a higher risk or percent error between its
predicted data and the actual data and so as the SES. ARIMA captured all residuals which indicates a good
model, so it was used in forecasting. The ARIMA model predicted that the yearly total electrical
consumption to be used in 2017-2021 will be about 38.3 Million kW (for 2017), 38.7 Million kW (for 2018),
38.8 Million kW (for 2019), 38.9 Million kW (for 2020) and 39 Million kW (for 2021). It also predicted that
about 200,000 kW 430, 000 kW will be used in monthly basis.

Overall, the model performs well, and it does not seem to produce significant deterioration of the
forecasts as the time lags. The researcher even used the in-sample of 2016 data, the predicted data of
2016 didnt passed above or lower than the limit predicted. The study can have a further improvement,
especially in obtaining the amounts of electrical machineries, electrical and money budget, and NPC
(National Power Corporation) electricity bank needed by LASURECO using the predicted data. In summary,
the paper believes that mathematical modelling methods are a robust and adaptable methodology that
can yield reliable forecasts in critical situations, such as the operations of electrical systems. And so it will
help in planning the infrastructure of electricity distribution of LASURECO. Furthermore, the forecast
could also give hints for the right action in preparing programs, projects and initiatives on energy
conservation to avoid electricity and financial crisis that affects the economic condition of the said place.