You are on page 1of 22

Err:502

Company Name: JPMorgan Chase & Co. Blue indicates hard-coded numbers and inputs.
Ticker: JPM Black indicates formulas.
Last Historical Year: 12/31/2009 Green indicates links from other worksheets.
Valuation Date: 12/31/2009
BIWS:
Month Multiplier: 29 Minimum Tier 1 Common Capital: 9.0% MS equity research,
Days in Year: 360 07.20.2010.

Conversion Units: 1000

Stock, Option & RSU Information:

Common Shares Outstanding: 3,973.0


Current Share Price: $ 41.67

Exercise
Type: # Outstanding: Price:
Options 266.568 $ 45.83
RSU 221.265 $ 29.32

Diluted Shares: 4,194.3


BIWS:
MS equity research,
07.20.2010.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Summary and Key Ratios
($ in Millions)
Historical
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Income Statement:
Non-Interest Income: $ 34,193 $ 40,195 $ 44,966 $ 28,473 $ 49,282
Net Interest Income: 19,555 21,242 26,406 38,779 51,152
Total Net Revenue: $ 53,748 $ 61,437 $ 71,372 $ 67,252 $ 100,434

Provision for Credit Losses: 3,483 3,270 6,864 20,979 32,015


Non-Interest Expenses: 38,426 38,281 41,703 43,500 52,352

Normalized Net Income: $ 8,254 $ 13,649 $ 15,365 $ 3,699 $ 11,652


Normalized NI to Common: 8,241 13,645 14,924 2,836 8,698
Diluted EPS: $ 2.32 $ 3.82 $ 4.33 $ 0.81 $ 2.24
Dividends Per Comm. Share: 1.36 1.36 1.48 1.52 0.20
BV Per Common Share: 30.71 33.45 36.59 36.15 39.88
TBV Per Common Share: 15.87 18.29 21.34 21.79 26.44

Financial & Capital Ratios:


Return on Equity: 12.2% 12.9% 2.6% 7.0%
Return on Common Equity: 12.2% 12.5% 2.2% 6.0%
Return on Tangible Common Equity: 21.7% 21.4% 3.7% 9.3%
Return on Assets: 1.07% 1.05% 0.20% 0.55%
Return on Tangible Assets: 1.11% 1.09% 0.20% 0.57%

Tier 1 Common Ratio: 7.0% 7.3% 7.0% 7.0% 8.8%


Tier 1 Capital Ratio: 8.5% 8.7% 8.4% 10.9% 11.1%
Total Capital Ratio: 12.0% 12.3% 12.6% 14.8% 14.8%
Tier 1 Leverage Ratio: 6.3% 6.2% 6.0% 6.9% 6.9%
Overhead Ratio: 71.5% 62.3% 58.4% 64.7% 52.1%

Balance Sheet Data:


Trading Assets: $ 298,377 $ 365,738 $ 491,409 $ 509,983 $ 411,128
Securities: 47,600 91,975 85,450 205,943 360,390
Net Loans: 412,058 475,848 510,140 721,734 601,856
Total Assets: 1,198,942 1,351,520 1,562,147 2,175,052 2,031,989
Deposits: 554,991 638,788 740,728 1,009,277 938,367
Long-Term Debt: 108,357 133,421 183,862 270,683 266,318
Comm. Stockholders' Equity: 107,072 115,790 123,221 134,945 157,213
Total Stockholders' Equity: 107,211 115,790 123,221 166,884 165,365

Risk-Weighted Assets: 850,643 935,909 1,051,879 1,244,659 1,198,006


Total Adjusted Avg. Assets: 1,152,546 1,308,699 1,473,541 1,966,895 1,933,767
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$ 48,611 $ 50,030 $ 51,891 $ 53,841 $ 58,386


52,780 46,236 44,174 46,978 45,898
$ 101,390 $ 96,266 $ 96,065 $ 100,819 $ 104,284

17,315 10,363 7,276 6,087 5,541


60,898 57,747 57,545 60,269 62,117

$ 16,224 $ 19,710 $ 21,871 $ 24,124 $ 25,638


14,576 17,982 20,143 22,396 23,910
$ 3.51 $ 4.55 $ 5.44 $ 6.23 $ 6.80
0.33 0.58 1.47 2.04 2.61
44.13 49.19 54.31 59.90 65.65
30.83 34.63 39.19 44.52 49.98

9.4% 10.9% 11.8% 12.3% 12.3%


8.8% 10.4% 11.4% 11.9% 11.9%
13.0% 14.9% 16.1% 16.4% 16.0%
0.80% 0.96% 1.05% 1.12% 1.14%
0.82% 0.99% 1.07% 1.15% 1.17%

9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.6% 9.5%


11.9% 11.8% 11.5% 11.5% 11.2%
15.8% 15.7% 14.9% 14.4% 13.9%
7.4% 7.4% 7.7% 8.1% 8.4%
60.1% 60.0% 59.9% 59.8% 59.6%

$ 370,015 $ 351,514 $ 351,514 $ 369,090 $ 405,999


360,390 342,371 325,252 325,252 341,515
640,443 680,687 725,280 758,238 793,580
2,038,056 2,057,264 2,123,184 2,190,898 2,306,382
909,861 932,161 995,749 1,033,412 1,077,455
269,319 269,208 268,852 263,520 258,589
172,816 173,205 181,571 194,568 207,546
180,968 181,357 189,723 202,720 215,698

1,243,930 1,254,003 1,363,976 1,491,322 1,640,884


1,982,502 1,994,940 2,038,105 2,105,454 2,197,470
JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Tier 1 Capital and Total Capital Calculations
($ in Millions)
Historical
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Tier 1 Capital:
Stockholders' Equity: $ 107,211 $ 115,790 $ 123,221 $ 166,884 $ 165,365
Less: Preferred Stock: 139 - - 31,939 8,152
Common Stockholders' Equity: $ 107,072 $ 115,790 $ 123,221 $ 134,945 $ 157,213
AOCI Adjustments: 618 1,562 925 5,084 75

Less: Goodwill, Net DTLs: 43,621 45,186 45,270 46,417 46,630


Less: Fair Value DVA: - - 882 2,358 912
Less: Investments in Subsid.: 401 420 782 679 802
Less: Non-Qualifying Intang.: 3,993 3,661 3,471 3,667 3,660
Tier 1 Common Capital: $ 59,675 $ 68,085 $ 73,741 $ 86,908 $ 105,284
Preferred Stock: 139 - - 31,939 8,152
Qualifying Hybrid Securities
& Non-Controlling Interests: 12,660 12,970 15,005 17,257 19,535
Total Tier 1 Capital: $ 72,474 $ 81,055 $ 88,746 $ 136,104 $ 132,971
% Growth: 5.6% 11.8% 9.5% 53.4% (2.3%)

% Non-Qualifying Intang.: 49.3% 50.1% 56.9% 65.7% 79.2%

Tier 2 Capital:
Long-Term Debt & Other: 22,733 26,613 32,817 31,659 28,977
Qualifying Allowance for LL: 7,490 7,803 10,084 17,187 15,296
Adjustments: (260) (206) 595 (230) (171)
Total Tier 2 Capital: $ 29,963 $ 34,210 $ 43,496 $ 48,616 $ 44,102
% Growth: 6.3% 14.2% 27.1% 11.8% (9.3%)

% Qualifying CL Provisions: 105.6% 107.2% 109.2% 74.2% 48.4%

Total Capital: $ 102,437 $ 115,265 $ 132,242 $ 184,720 $ 177,073


% Growth: 5.8% 12.5% 14.7% 39.7% (4.1%)
Risk-Weighted Assets: 850,643 935,909 1,051,879 1,244,659 1,198,006
Total Adj. Avg. Assets: 1,152,546 1,308,699 1,473,541 1,966,895 1,933,767

RWA % Average IEA: 94.6% 94.0% 94.0% 90.6% 72.6%


RWA % Growth: 7.5% 10.0% 12.4% 18.3% (3.7%)

Total Assets: $ 1,198,942 $ 1,351,520 $ 1,562,147 $ 2,175,052 $ 2,031,989


Tangible Assets: 1,150,927 1,302,253 1,511,742 2,121,931 1,979,985
Tangible Common Equity: 59,057 66,523 72,816 81,824 105,209
Tier 1 Common Ratio: 7.0% 7.3% 7.0% 7.0% 8.8%
Tier 1 Capital Ratio: 8.5% 8.7% 8.4% 10.9% 11.1%
Total Capital Ratio: 12.0% 12.3% 12.6% 14.8% 14.8%
Tier 1 Leverage Ratio: 6.3% 6.2% 6.0% 6.9% 6.9%
Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$ 180,968 $ 181,357 $ 189,723 $ 202,720 $ 215,698


8,152 8,152 8,152 8,152 8,152
$ 172,816 $ 173,205 $ 181,571 $ 194,568 $ 207,546
- - - - -

48,357 48,357 48,357 48,357 48,357


912 912 912 912 912
802 802 802 802 802
2,966 2,332 1,764 1,267 931
$ 119,779 $ 120,802 $ 129,736 $ 143,230 $ 156,544
8,152 8,152 8,152 8,152 8,152

19,535 19,535 19,535 19,535 19,535


$ 147,466 $ 148,489 $ 157,423 $ 170,917 $ 184,231
10.9% 0.7% 6.0% 8.6% 7.8%

80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%

28,977 28,977 28,977 28,977 28,977


19,713 19,429 17,225 15,138 14,511
(171) (171) (171) (171) (171)
$ 48,519 $ 48,235 $ 46,031 $ 43,944 $ 43,317
10.0% (0.6%) (4.6%) (4.5%) (1.4%)

60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

$ 195,984 $ 196,724 $ 203,455 $ 214,861 $ 227,548


10.7% 0.4% 3.4% 5.6% 5.9%
1,243,930 1,254,003 1,363,976 1,491,322 1,640,884
1,982,502 1,994,940 2,038,105 2,105,454 2,197,470

75.0% 75.0% 80.0% 85.0% 90.0%


3.8% 0.8% 8.8% 9.3% 10.0%

$ 2,038,056 $ 2,057,264 $ 2,123,184 $ 2,190,898 $ 2,306,382


1,985,019 2,004,861 2,071,349 2,139,560 2,255,380
119,779 120,802 129,736 143,230 156,544
9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.6% 9.5%
11.9% 11.8% 11.5% 11.5% 11.2%
15.8% 15.7% 14.9% 14.4% 13.9%
7.4% 7.4% 7.7% 8.1% 8.4%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Loan Portfolio
($ in Millions)
Historical - Net of Charge-Offs Projected - Prior to Charge-Offs
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Wholesale Loans:
Commercial and Industrial: $ 43,578 $ 48,500 $ 70,081 $ 74,153 $ 51,113 $ 56,224 $ 60,441 $ 64,974 $ 68,223 $ 71,634
Real Estate: 16,505 18,047 15,977 61,890 54,970 60,467 65,002 69,877 73,371 77,040
Financial Institutions 13,681 15,632 15,113 20,953 13,557 14,235 14,947 15,694 16,086 16,488
Government Agencies: 3,709 4,148 5,770 5,919 5,634 6,197 6,817 7,328 7,878 8,272
Other: 34,592 32,359 26,312 23,861 23,811 25,002 26,252 27,564 28,253 28,960
Total US Wholesale Loans: 112,065 118,686 133,253 186,776 149,085 162,125 173,459 185,438 193,812 202,394
Non-US Wholesale Loans:
Commercial and Industrial: 18,545 22,378 33,829 35,291 20,188 21,702 23,330 25,079 26,333 27,650
Real Estate: 1,393 2,325 3,632 2,811 2,270 2,440 2,623 2,820 2,961 3,109
Financial Institutions 8,093 19,174 17,245 17,552 11,848 12,440 13,062 13,716 14,058 14,410
Government Agencies: 1,296 2,543 720 602 1,707 2,048 2,356 2,591 2,850 3,135
Other: 8,719 18,636 24,397 19,012 19,077 20,031 21,032 22,084 23,188 24,348
Total Non-US Wholesale Loans: 38,046 65,056 79,823 75,268 55,090 58,662 62,403 66,290 69,391 72,652
Total Wholesale Loans:
Commercial and Industrial: 62,123 70,878 103,910 109,444 71,301 77,926 83,771 90,054 94,556 99,284
Real Estate: 17,898 20,372 19,609 64,701 57,240 62,907 67,625 72,697 76,332 80,149
Financial Institutions 21,774 34,806 32,358 38,505 25,405 26,675 28,009 29,409 30,145 30,898
Government Agencies: 5,005 6,691 6,490 6,521 7,341 8,246 9,173 9,920 10,728 11,407
Other: 43,311 50,995 50,709 42,873 42,888 45,032 47,284 49,648 51,442 53,307
Total Wholesale Loans: 150,111 183,742 213,076 262,044 204,175 220,787 235,862 251,728 263,203 275,046
Total Consumer Loans:
Home Equity: 73,866 85,730 94,832 142,890 127,945 140,740 151,295 162,642 170,774 179,313
Mortgage: 58,959 59,668 56,031 157,078 143,129 157,442 169,250 181,944 191,041 200,593
Auto Loans: 46,081 41,009 42,350 42,603 46,031 50,634 55,698 61,267 65,862 70,802
Credit Card Receivables: 71,738 85,881 84,352 104,746 78,786 84,695 91,047 95,599 100,379 105,398
Other: 18,393 27,097 28,733 35,537 33,392 35,062 36,815 38,655 39,622 40,612
Total Consumer Loans: 269,037 299,385 306,298 482,854 429,283 468,572 504,104 540,108 567,679 596,719
Total Loans: $ 419,148 $ 483,127 $ 519,374 $ 744,898 $ 633,458 $ 689,359 $ 739,966 $ 791,836 $ 830,882 $ 871,764

Loan Growth Rates:

US Wholesale Loans:
Commercial and Industrial: 11.3% 44.5% 5.8% (31.1%) 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0%
Real Estate: 9.3% (11.5%) 287.4% (11.2%) 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0%
Financial Institutions 14.3% (3.3%) 38.6% (35.3%) 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Government Agencies: 11.8% 39.1% 2.6% (4.8%) 10.0% 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0%
Other: (6.5%) (18.7%) (9.3%) (0.2%) 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Total US Wholesale Loans: 5.9% 12.3% 40.2% (20.2%) 8.7% 7.0% 6.9% 4.5% 4.4%
Non-US Wholesale Loans:
Commercial and Industrial: 20.7% 51.2% 4.3% (42.8%) 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0%
Real Estate: 66.9% 56.2% (22.6%) (19.2%) 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0%
Financial Institutions 136.9% (10.1%) 1.8% (32.5%) 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Government Agencies: 96.2% (71.7%) (16.4%) 183.6% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Other: 113.7% 30.9% (22.1%) 0.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Total Non-US Wholesale Loans: 71.0% 22.7% (5.7%) (26.8%) 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 4.7% 4.7%
Total Consumer Loans:
Home Equity: 16.1% 10.6% 50.7% (10.5%) 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0%
Mortgage: 1.2% (6.1%) 180.3% (8.9%) 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0%
Auto Loans: (11.0%) 3.3% 0.6% 8.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 7.5% 7.5%
Credit Card Receivables: 19.7% (1.8%) 24.2% (24.8%) 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Other: 47.3% 6.0% 23.7% (6.0%) 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Total Consumer Loans: 11.3% 2.3% 57.6% (11.1%) 9.2% 7.6% 7.1% 5.1% 5.1%
Total Loans: 15.3% 7.5% 43.4% (15.0%) 8.8% 7.3% 7.0% 4.9% 4.9%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Charge-Offs & Loan Loss Reserves
($ in Millions)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LL Balance at Beginning of Year: $ 7,320 $ 7,090 $ 7,279 $ 9,234 $ 23,164 $ 31,602 $ 32,854 $ 27,756 $ 21,531 $ 16,820
Additions from M&A: - - - 2,535 - - - - - -
Provision for Loan Losses: 3,575 3,153 6,538 21,237 31,735 17,315 10,363 7,276 6,087 5,541
US Charge-Offs:
Commercial and Industrial: $ 154 $ 80 $ 34 $ 183 $ 1,233 $ 562 $ 604 $ 650 $ 512 $ 358
Real Estate: 2 10 46 217 700 454 325 349 220 77
Financial Institutions 2 1 9 17 671 427 224 78 16 16
Government Agencies: - 2 10 - - - - - - -
Other: 64 36 81 35 151 125 105 83 85 58
Consumer: 4,604 3,635 5,181 10,140 20,638 15,229 15,123 13,503 11,354 8,951
Total US Charge-Offs: 4,826 3,764 5,361 10,592 23,393 16,796 16,382 14,663 12,186 9,460
Non-US Charge-Offs:
Commercial and Industrial: 32 43 2 40 64 $ 33 $ 35 $ 25 $ 26 $ 14
Real Estate: - - - - - - - - - -
Financial Institutions - - - 29 66 62 52 41 28 14
Government Agencies: - - - - - - - - - -
Other: 1 14 3 - 341 300 263 221 174 122
Consumer: 10 63 1 103 154 - - - - -
Total Non-US Charge-Offs: 43 120 6 172 625 395 350 287 228 150
Total Charge-Offs: 4,869 3,884 5,367 10,764 24,018 17,192 16,732 14,950 12,415 9,610
US Recoveries:
Commercial and Industrial: (110) (89) (48) (60) (53) $ (56) $ (60) $ (97) $ (136) $ (143)
Real Estate: (4) (4) (1) (5) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17)
Financial Institutions (6) (4) (3) (2) (3) (3) (3) (3) (4) (4)
Government Agencies: - - - - - - - - - -
Other: (46) (48) (40) (29) (25) (25) (32) (36) (40) (43)
Consumer: (717) (622) (716) (793) (941) (1,031) (1,159) (1,296) (1,419) (1,551)
Total US Recoveries: (883) (767) (808) (889) (1,034) (1,128) (1,269) (1,448) (1,615) (1,759)
Non-US Recoveries:
Commercial and Industrial: (122) (26) (8) (16) (1) $ (1) $ (1) $ (1) $ (1) $ (1)
Real Estate: - - - - - - - - - -
Financial Institutions (7) (11) (1) - - - - - - -
Government Agencies: (15) - - - - - - - - -
Other: (22) (26) (12) (7) - - - - - -
Consumer: (1) (12) - (17) (18) - - - - -
Total Non-US Recoveries: (167) (75) (21) (40) (19) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
Total Recoveries: (1,050) (842) (829) (929) (1,053) (1,130) (1,270) (1,450) (1,616) (1,760)
Net Charge-Offs: 3,819 3,042 4,538 9,835 22,965 16,062 15,462 13,501 10,798 7,850
Allowance for Purch. Porfolios: 17 75 - 6 - - - - - -
Change in Accounting Principles: - - (56) - - - - - - -
Other: (3) 3 11 (13) (332) - - - - -
LL Balance at Year-End: $ 7,090 $ 7,279 $ 9,234 $ 23,164 $ 31,602 $ 32,854 $ 27,756 $ 21,531 $ 16,820 $ 14,511

Charge-Offs & Recoveries as % of Loan Balances:

Provision for Loan Losses as % of


Average Loan Balances: 0.87% 0.69% 1.36% 3.61% 4.65% 2.65% 1.50% 1.00% 0.80% 0.70%

Total Consumer Gross Loans: 269,037 299,385 306,298 482,854 429,283 468,572 504,104 540,108 567,679 596,719
Total Consumer Charge-Offs: 4,614 3,698 5,182 10,243 20,792 15,229 15,123 13,503 11,354 8,951
Total Consumer Recoveries: (718) (634) (716) (810) (959) (1,031) (1,159) (1,296) (1,419) (1,551)

US Charge-Offs:
Commercial and Industrial: 0.35% 0.16% 0.05% 0.25% 2.41% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.75% 0.50%
Real Estate: 0.01% 0.06% 0.29% 0.35% 1.27% 0.75% 0.50% 0.50% 0.30% 0.10%
Financial Institutions 0.01% 0.01% 0.06% 0.08% 4.95% 3.00% 1.50% 0.50% 0.10% 0.10%
Government Agencies: 0.00% 0.05% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other: 0.19% 0.11% 0.31% 0.15% 0.63% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
Consumer: 1.72% 1.24% 1.69% 2.12% 4.84% 3.25% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50%
Total US Charge-Offs: 1.27% 0.92% 1.22% 1.60% 4.07% 2.66% 2.42% 2.02% 1.60% 1.18%
Non-US Charge-Offs:
Commercial and Industrial: 0.17% 0.19% 0.01% 0.11% 0.32% 0.15% 0.15% 0.10% 0.10% 0.05%
Real Estate: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Financial Institutions 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 0.56% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
Government Agencies: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other: 0.01% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 1.79% 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 0.75% 0.50%
Consumer: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Non-US Charge-Offs: 0.09% 0.09% 0.01% 0.09% 0.85% 0.67% 0.56% 0.43% 0.33% 0.21%
US Recoveries:
Commercial and Industrial: (0.25%) (0.18%) (0.07%) (0.08%) (0.10%) (0.10%) (0.10%) (0.15%) (0.20%) (0.20%)
Real Estate: (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.01%) (0.01%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%)
Financial Institutions (0.04%) (0.03%) (0.02%) (0.01%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%) (0.02%)
Government Agencies: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other: (0.13%) (0.15%) (0.15%) (0.12%) (0.10%) (0.10%) (0.12%) (0.13%) (0.14%) (0.15%)
Consumer: (0.27%) (0.21%) (0.23%) (0.17%) (0.22%) (0.22%) (0.23%) (0.24%) (0.25%) (0.26%)
Total US Recoveries: (0.23%) (0.19%) (0.18%) (0.14%) (0.18%) (0.18%) (0.19%) (0.20%) (0.21%) (0.22%)
Non-US Recoveries:
Commercial and Industrial: (0.66%) (0.12%) (0.02%) (0.05%) (0.00%) (0.00%) (0.00%) (0.00%) (0.00%) (0.00%)
Real Estate: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Financial Institutions (0.09%) (0.06%) (0.01%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Government Agencies: (1.16%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other: (0.25%) (0.14%) (0.05%) (0.04%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Consumer: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Non-US Recoveries: (0.44%) (0.10%) (0.03%) (0.03%) (0.00%) (0.00%) (0.00%) (0.00%) (0.00%) (0.00%)

Total Wholesale Loans: 150,111 183,742 213,076 262,044 204,175 220,787 235,862 251,728 263,203 275,046
Total Consumer Loans: 269,037 299,385 306,298 482,854 429,283 468,572 504,104 540,108 567,679 596,719
Gross Loan Balance: 422,967 486,169 523,912 754,733 656,423 689,359 739,966 791,836 830,882 871,764
Gross Loans Net of NCOs: 419,148 483,127 519,374 744,898 633,458 673,297 708,442 746,812 775,059 808,091
Average Loan Balance: 409,988 454,535 479,679 588,801 682,885 653,378 690,870 727,627 760,935 791,575

Key Metrics & Ratios:


Net Charge-Off Ratio: 0.93% 0.67% 0.95% 1.67% 3.36% 2.46% 2.24% 1.86% 1.42% 0.99%
Net Charge-Offs / Reserves: 53.86% 41.79% 49.14% 42.46% 72.67% 48.89% 55.71% 62.70% 64.20% 54.10%
Reserves / Total Loans: 1.69% 1.51% 1.78% 3.11% 4.99% 4.88% 3.92% 2.88% 2.17% 1.80%
NCO / Prior Year Provision: N/A 85.09% 143.93% 150.43% 108.14% 50.61% 89.30% 130.28% 148.41% 128.96%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Historical and Projected Balance Sheet
($ in Millions)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Assets:
Cash and Due from Banks: $ 36,670 $ 40,412 $ 40,144 $ 26,895 $ 26,206 $ 27,296 $ 32,626 $ 39,830 $ 46,504 $ 53,873
Deposits with Banks: 21,661 13,547 11,466 138,139 63,230 59,141 55,930 49,787 41,336 32,324
Federal Funds Sold: 133,981 140,524 170,897 203,115 195,404 195,404 195,404 220,304 220,304 220,304
Securities Borrowed: 74,604 73,688 84,184 124,000 119,630 126,137 136,948 146,363 162,626 187,833
Trading Assets: 298,377 365,738 491,409 509,983 411,128 370,015 351,514 351,514 369,090 405,999
Securities: 47,600 91,975 85,450 205,943 360,390 360,390 342,371 325,252 325,252 341,515

Loans: 419,148 483,127 519,374 744,898 633,458 673,297 708,442 746,812 775,059 808,091
Allowance for Loan Losses: (7,090) (7,279) (9,234) (23,164) (31,602) (32,854) (27,756) (21,531) (16,820) (14,511)
Net Loans: 412,058 475,848 510,140 721,734 601,856 640,443 680,687 725,280 758,238 793,580
Accrued Interest and AR: 22,421 22,891 24,823 60,987 67,427 67,330 63,760 59,745 54,254 48,485
Premises and Equipment: 9,081 8,735 9,319 10,045 11,118 11,118 11,118 11,118 11,118 11,118
Goodwill: 43,621 45,186 45,270 48,027 48,357 48,357 48,357 48,357 48,357 48,357
Mortgage Servicing Rights: 6,452 7,546 8,632 9,403 15,531 16,273 17,567 19,456 22,065 25,152
Other Intangible Assets: 8,107 7,306 6,099 5,581 4,621 3,708 2,915 2,205 1,584 1,164
Other Assets: 84,309 58,124 74,314 111,200 107,091 112,446 118,068 123,971 130,170 136,678
Total Assets: ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Liabilities:
Deposits: $ 554,991 $ 638,788 $ 740,728 ### $ 938,367 $ 909,861 $ 932,161 $ 995,749 ### ###
Federal Funds Purchased: 125,925 162,173 154,398 192,546 261,413 285,059 291,843 291,843 318,751 358,831
Commercial Paper: 13,863 18,849 49,596 37,845 41,794 43,764 42,507 41,075 38,753 40,405
Other Borrowed Funds: 10,479 18,053 28,835 132,400 55,740 53,864 49,591 44,809 38,753 32,324
Trading Liabilities: 145,930 147,957 157,867 166,878 125,071 118,405 119,515 126,545 140,254 162,400
AP and Other Liabilities: 78,460 88,096 94,476 187,978 162,696 161,591 155,857 149,362 139,511 145,456
Beneficial Interests: 42,197 16,184 14,016 10,561 15,225 15,225 15,225 15,225 15,225 15,225
Long-Term Debt: 108,357 133,421 183,862 270,683 266,318 269,319 269,208 268,852 263,520 258,589
Jr. Sub Debentures: 11,529 12,209 15,148 - - - - - - -
Total Liabilities: ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Shareholders' Equity:
Preferred Stock: $ 139 $ - $ - $ 31,939 $ 8,152 $ 8,152 $ 8,152 $ 8,152 $ 8,152 $ 8,152
Common Stock: 3,618 3,658 3,658 3,942 4,105 4,105 4,105 4,105 4,105 4,105
Capital Surplus: 74,994 77,807 78,597 92,143 97,982 105,321 112,486 119,645 126,964 134,401
Retained Earnings: 33,848 43,600 54,715 54,013 62,481 75,745 91,569 106,676 122,354 137,895
Accumulated OCI: (626) (1,557) (917) (5,687) (91) (91) (91) (91) (91) (91)
Restricted Stock Units: - - - (217) (68) (68) (68) (68) (68) (68)
Treasury Stock: (4,762) (7,718) (12,832) (9,249) (7,196) (12,196) (34,796) (48,696) (58,696) (68,696)
Total Shareholders' Equity: $ 107,211 $ 115,790 $ 123,221 $ 166,884 $ 165,365 $ 180,968 $ 181,357 $ 189,723 $ 202,720 $ 215,698

Total Liabilities & SE: ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Balance Check: OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!

JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Balance Sheet Drivers


($ in Millions)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Assets:
Cash % Deposits: 6.61% 6.33% 5.42% 2.66% 2.79% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00%
Bank Deposits % Deposits: 3.90% 2.12% 1.55% 13.69% 6.74% 6.50% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
Sec. Borrowed % Securities: 156.73% 80.12% 98.52% 60.21% 33.19% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 55.00%
Trading Assets % Growth: 22.58% 34.36% 3.78% (19.38%) (10.00%) (5.00%) 0.00% 5.00% 10.00%
Securities % Growth: 93.22% (7.09%) 141.01% 75.00% 0.00% (5.00%) (5.00%) 0.00% 5.00%
Accr. Interest and AR % Loans: 5.35% 4.74% 4.78% 8.19% 10.64% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00%
MSR Originated: 1,512 2,335 3,061 3,615 4,157 4,698 5,214 5,788 6,425
MSR % Growth: 54.43% 31.09% 18.10% 15.00% 13.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00%
Other Intang. Amortization: 1,490 1,428 1,394 1,263 1,050 913 793 710 621 420
Other Assets % Growth: (31.06%) 27.85% 49.64% (3.70%) 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

Liabilities:
Loans % Deposits: 75.52% 75.63% 70.12% 73.81% 67.51% 74.00% 76.00% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00%
Commercial Paper % Loans: 3.31% 3.90% 9.55% 5.08% 6.60% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 5.00%
Other Borr. Funds % Loans: 2.50% 3.74% 5.55% 17.77% 8.80% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00%
Trading Liab. % Trading Assets: 48.91% 40.45% 32.13% 32.72% 30.42% 32.00% 34.00% 36.00% 38.00% 40.00%
AP & Other Liab. % Loans: 18.72% 18.23% 18.19% 25.24% 25.68% 24.00% 22.00% 20.00% 18.00% 18.00%
Long-Term Debt % Loans: 25.85% 27.62% 35.40% 36.34% 42.04% 40.00% 38.00% 36.00% 34.00% 32.00%

Federal Funds Calculation:


Total Assets + Prior Year Fed Funds Sold: 2,038,056 2,057,264 2,098,284 2,190,898 2,306,382
Total L&E + Prior Year Fed Funds Purchased: 2,014,410 2,050,480 2,123,184 2,163,991 2,266,302
Increase in Fed Funds Sold: 6,543 30,373 32,218 (7,711) - - 24,900 - -
Increase in Fed Funds Purchased: 36,248 (7,775) 38,148 68,867 23,646 6,784 - 26,908 40,080

JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Interest-Earning Assets (IEA) and Interest-Bearing Liabilities (IBL)
($ in Millions)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Assets:
Deposits with Banks: $ 21,661 $ 13,547 $ 11,466 $ 138,139 $ 63,230 $ 59,141 $ 55,930 $ 49,787 $ 41,336 $ 32,324
Federal Funds Sold: 133,981 140,524 170,897 203,115 195,404 195,404 195,404 220,304 220,304 220,304
Securities Borrowed: 74,604 73,688 84,184 124,000 119,630 126,137 136,948 146,363 162,626 187,833
Trading Assets - Debt: 187,615 205,506 292,846 298,266 251,035 222,009 210,909 210,909 221,454 243,600
Securities: 47,600 91,975 85,450 205,943 360,390 360,390 342,371 325,252 325,252 341,515
Loans: 419,148 483,127 519,374 744,898 633,458 673,297 708,442 746,812 775,059 808,091
Other IE Assets: - - - 27,404 29,510 28,111 29,517 30,993 32,542 34,170
Total Interest-Earning Assets: $ 884,609 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Avg. Interest-Earning Assets: $ 899,096 $ 995,506 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Liabilities:
Interest-Bearing Deposits: $ 383,259 $ 452,323 $ 535,359 $ 645,058 $ 684,016 $ 636,903 $ 652,513 $ 697,024 $ 723,388 $ 754,218
Federal Funds Purchased: 125,925 162,173 154,398 192,546 261,413 285,059 291,843 291,843 318,751 358,831
Commercial Paper: 13,863 18,849 49,596 37,845 41,794 43,764 42,507 41,075 38,753 40,405
Other Borrowings & Liabilities 93,765 102,147 100,181 161,555 201,182 193,910 184,903 174,754 160,437 160,002
Beneficial Interests: 42,197 16,184 14,016 10,561 15,225 15,225 15,225 15,225 15,225 15,225
Long-Term Debt: 108,357 133,421 183,862 270,683 266,318 269,319 269,208 268,852 263,520 258,589
Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities: $ 767,366 $ 885,097 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Avg. Interest-Bearing Liabilities: $ 803,337 $ 914,282 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Debt % Trading Assets: 62.88% 56.19% 59.59% 58.49% 61.06% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00%
IE Assets % Other Assets: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 24.64% 27.56% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
IB Deposits % Deposits: 69.06% 70.81% 72.27% 63.91% 72.89% 70.00% 70.00% 70.00% 70.00% 70.00%
Other Borrowings % Other
Liabilities & Borrowed Funds: 105.43% 96.23% 81.24% 50.43% 92.10% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00%

Average Interest on IEA: 5.04% 5.96% 6.42% 5.36% 4.04% 4.50% 4.50% 4.75% 5.25% 5.50%
Average Interest on IBL: 3.18% 4.14% 4.29% 2.64% 1.02% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50%
Interest Rate Spread: 1.86% 1.82% 2.13% 2.72% 3.02% 3.00% 2.50% 2.25% 2.25% 2.00%

Net Interest Income Calculation:


Interest Income: $ 45,075 $ 59,107 $ 71,387 $ 73,018 $ 66,350 $ 74,636 $ 75,240 $ 80,986 $ 92,111 $ 100,276
Interest Expense: (25,520) (37,865) (44,981) (34,239) (15,198) (21,856) (29,004) (36,812) (45,133) (54,379)
Net Interest Income: $ 19,555 $ 21,242 $ 26,406 $ 38,779 $ 51,152 $ 52,780 $ 46,236 $ 44,174 $ 46,978 $ 45,898

JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Income Statement


($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Non-Interest Revenue:
Investment Banking Fees: $ 4,088 $ 5,520 $ 6,635 $ 5,526 $ 7,087 $ 7,796 $ 8,380 $ 9,009 $ 9,459 $ 9,932
Principal Transactions: 7,669 10,346 9,015 (10,699) 9,796 9,764 9,019 8,788 9,008 11,626
Securities Gains / (Losses): (1,336) (543) 164 1,560 1,110 - - - - -
Lending and Deposit Fees: 3,389 3,468 3,938 5,088 7,045 6,310 6,286 6,428 6,569 6,649
Asset Management: 9,891 11,725 14,356 13,943 12,540 14,288 15,568 16,651 17,650 18,528
Mortgage Fees & Income: 1,054 591 2,118 3,467 3,678 3,416 3,403 3,326 3,179 3,338
Credit Card Income: 6,754 6,913 6,911 7,419 7,110 6,212 6,590 6,906 7,153 7,408
Other Income: 2,684 2,175 1,829 2,169 916 824 783 783 822 905
Total Non-Interest Revenue: $ 34,193 $ 40,195 $ 44,966 $ 28,473 $ 49,282 $ 48,611 $ 50,030 $ 51,891 $ 53,841 $ 58,386

Interest Income: $ 45,075 $ 59,107 $ 71,387 $ 73,018 $ 66,350 $ 74,636 $ 75,240 $ 80,986 $ 92,111 $ 100,276
Interest Expense: (25,520) (37,865) (44,981) (34,239) (15,198) (21,856) (29,004) (36,812) (45,133) (54,379)
Net Interest Income: $ 19,555 $ 21,242 $ 26,406 $ 38,779 $ 51,152 $ 52,780 $ 46,236 $ 44,174 $ 46,978 $ 45,898

Total Net Revenue: $ 53,748 $ 61,437 $ 71,372 $ 67,252 $ 100,434 $ 101,390 $ 96,266 $ 96,065 $ 100,819 $ 104,284

Provision for Credit Losses: 3,483 3,270 6,864 20,979 32,015 17,315 10,363 7,276 6,087 5,541

Non-Interest Expenses:
Compensation Expense: $ 18,065 $ 21,191 $ 22,689 $ 22,746 $ 26,928 $ 32,552 $ 30,907 $ 30,842 $ 32,368 $ 33,481
Occupancy Expense: 2,269 2,335 2,608 3,038 3,666 4,024 3,821 3,813 4,001 4,139
Technology & Equipment: 3,602 3,653 3,779 4,315 4,624 5,873 5,576 5,565 5,840 6,041
Professional Services: 4,162 3,888 5,140 6,053 6,232 7,397 7,023 7,009 7,356 7,608
Marketing: 1,917 2,209 2,070 1,913 1,777 2,976 2,826 2,820 2,959 3,061
Other Expenses: 6,199 3,272 3,814 3,740 7,594 7,163 6,801 6,787 7,123 7,368
Amortization of Intangibles: 1,490 1,428 1,394 1,263 1,050 913 793 710 621 420
Merger Costs: 722 305 209 432 481 - - - - -
Total Non-Interest Expenses: $ 38,426 $ 38,281 $ 41,703 $ 43,500 $ 52,352 $ 60,898 $ 57,747 $ 57,545 $ 60,269 $ 62,117

Income Before Taxes & Gains: $ 11,839 $ 19,886 $ 22,805 $ 2,773 $ 16,067 $ 23,178 $ 28,157 $ 31,244 $ 34,463 $ 36,626
Income Tax Exp. / (Benefit): 3,585 6,237 7,440 (926) 4,415 6,953 8,447 9,373 10,339 10,988
NI Before Extra. Gains: $ 8,254 $ 13,649 $ 15,365 $ 3,699 $ 11,652 $ 16,224 $ 19,710 $ 21,871 $ 24,124 $ 25,638
Extraordinary Gain: - - - 1,906 76 - - - - -
Discontinued Operations: 229 795 - - - - - - - -
Net Income: $ 8,483 $ 14,444 $ 15,365 $ 5,605 $ 11,728 $ 16,224 $ 19,710 $ 21,871 $ 24,124 $ 25,638
BIWS: B IWS:
Preferred Stock Dividends: 13 4 - 674 1,327 1,648 From1,728 From1,728
RBC 07.16.2010 RBC 07.16.2010 1,728 1,728
Accel. Amort. From TARP: - - - - 1,112 - report. - report. - - -
Undistributed Earnings: - - 441 189 515 - - - - -
Net Income to Common: $ 8,470 $ 14,440 $ 14,924 $ 4,742 $ 8,774 $ 14,576 $ 17,982 $ 20,143 $ 22,396 $ 23,910

Weighted Avg. Basic Shares: 3,492.0 3,470.0 3,404.0 3,501.0 3,862.8 3,929.1 3,718.6 3,432.0 3,295.7 3,204.9
Weighted Avg. Diluted Shares: 3,557.0 3,574.0 3,445.0 3,521.8 3,879.7 4,150.4 3,947.9 3,702.1 3,593.3 3,518.1
Ending Common Shares: 3,486.7 3,461.7 3,367.4 3,732.8 3,942.0 3,916.2 3,521.0 3,343.1 3,248.4 3,161.5

EPS Excluding Extraordinary Gains & Discontinued Operations:


Basic EPS (Excl. Gains): $ 2.36 $ 3.93 $ 4.38 $ 0.81 $ 2.25 $ 3.71 $ 4.84 $ 5.87 $ 6.80 $ 7.46
Diluted EPS (Excl. Gains): $ 2.32 $ 3.82 $ 4.33 $ 0.81 $ 2.24 $ 3.51 $ 4.55 $ 5.44 $ 6.23 $ 6.80

Dividends Per Common Share: $ 1.36 $ 1.36 $ 1.48 $ 1.52 $ 0.20 $ 0.33 $ 0.58 $ 1.47 $ 2.04 $ 2.61

JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Income Statement Drivers


($ in Millions Except Assets Under Supervision in Billions)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Non-Interest Revenue:
Investment Banking % Growth: 15.6% 35.0% 20.2% (16.7%) 28.2% 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0%
Principal Transactions % Avg.
Trading Assets: 2.6% 3.1% 2.1% (2.1%) 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0%
Lending & Deposit Fees % Avg.
Loans & Deposits: 0.36% 0.33% 0.33% 0.34% 0.42% 0.40% 0.39% 0.38% 0.37% 0.36%

Assets Under Supervision ($ B): $ 1,149 $ 1,347 $ 1,572 $ 1,496 $ 1,701 $ 1,871 $ 2,021 $ 2,142 $ 2,271 $ 2,361
AUS % Growth: 3.9% 17.2% 16.7% (4.8%) 13.7% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0%

Asset Management Fees %


Avg. AUS: 0.88% 0.94% 0.98% 0.91% 0.78% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%

Mortgage & Home Equity Loans: 132,825 145,398 150,863 299,968 271,074 298,181 320,545 344,586 361,815 379,906
Fees % Average Loans: 0.82% 0.42% 1.43% 1.54% 1.29% 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 0.90% 0.90%

Credit Card Receivables: 71,738 85,881 84,352 104,746 78,786 84,695 91,047 95,599 100,379 105,398
CC Income % Avg. Receiv.: 9.9% 8.8% 8.1% 7.8% 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4% 7.3% 7.2%

Other Income % Growth: 224.9% (19.0%) (15.9%) 18.6% (57.8%) (10.0%) (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Non-Interest Expenses:
% of Net Revenue:
Compensation Expense: 33.6% 34.5% 31.8% 33.8% 26.8% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1%
Occupancy Expense: 4.2% 3.8% 3.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Technology & Equipment: 6.7% 5.9% 5.3% 6.4% 4.6% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%
Professional Services: 7.7% 6.3% 7.2% 9.0% 6.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
Marketing: 3.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2.8% 1.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Other Expenses: 11.5% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 7.6% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%

Effective Tax Rate: 30.3% 31.4% 32.6% (33.4%) 27.5% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Cash Flow Statement


($ in Millions)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Operating Activities:
Net Income: $ 8,483 $ 14,444 $ 15,365 $ 5,605 $ 11,728 $ 16,224 $ 19,710 $ 21,871 $ 24,124 $ 25,638
Reconciling Adjustments:
Provision for Credit Losses: 3,483 3,270 6,864 20,979 32,015 17,315 10,363 7,276 6,087 5,541
Depreciation & Amortization: 2,828 2,149 2,427 3,143 2,783 3,975 3,774 3,767 3,953 4,089
Amortization of Intangibles: 1,490 1,428 1,394 1,263 1,050 913 793 710 621 420
Deferred Tax Exp. / (Benefit): (1,791) (1,810) 1,307 (2,637) (3,622) - - - - -
Gains on Securities: 1,336 543 (164) (1,560) (1,110) - - - - -
Proceeds on Invest. Sales: (1,199) (1,540) - (1,540) - - - - - -
Stock-Based Compensation: 1,563 2,368 2,025 2,637 3,355 3,419 3,246 3,240 3,400 3,517
Origination & Loan Purchases: (108,611) (178,355) (116,471) (34,902) (22,417) - 18,020 17,119 - (16,263)
Proceeds from Sales & Sec.: 102,602 170,874 107,350 38,036 33,902 - - - - -
Net Change In:
Trading Assets: (3,845) (61,664) (121,240) (12,787) 133,488 41,113 18,501 - (17,576) (36,909)
Securities Borrowed: (27,290) 916 (10,496) 15,408 4,452 (6,506) (10,812) (9,415) (16,263) (25,207)
Accrued Interest & AR: (1,934) (1,170) (1,932) 10,221 (6,312) 97 3,570 4,015 5,491 5,769
Other Assets: (9) (7,208) (21,628) (33,629) 32,182 (5,355) (5,622) (5,903) (6,199) (6,508)
Trading Liabilities: (12,578) (4,521) 12,681 24,061 (79,314) (6,666) 1,110 7,030 13,709 22,145
AP & Other: 5,532 7,815 4,284 1,012 (26,450) (1,105) (5,734) (6,495) (9,852) 5,946
Other Operating Adjustments: (296) 2,882 7,674 (12,212) 6,167 (742) (1,295) (1,889) (2,609) (3,087)
Net Cash Flow from Operations: (30,236) (49,579) (110,560) 23,098 121,897 62,683 55,624 41,325 4,888 (14,910)

Investing Activities:
Net Change In:
Deposits with Banks: 104 8,168 2,081 (118,929) 74,829 4,089 3,211 6,142 8,451 9,013
Fed Funds Sold: (32,469) (6,939) (29,814) (44,597) 7,082 - - (24,900) - -
Held-to-Maturity Securities:
Proceeds: 33 19 14 10 9 - - - - -
Available-for-Sale Securities:
Proceeds from Maturities: 31,053 24,909 31,143 44,414 87,712 - - - - -
Proceeds from Sales: 82,902 123,750 98,450 96,806 114,041 - - - - -
Purchases: (81,749) (201,530) (122,507) (248,599) (346,372) (55,901) (50,607) (51,870) (39,046) (40,883)
Proceeds from Sale & Sec.: 23,861 20,809 34,925 27,531 30,434 - - - - -
Other Net Changes in Loans: (40,436) (70,837) (83,437) (59,123) 51,251 - - - - -
Acquisitions: (1,039) 185 (70) 2,128 (97) - - - - -
Proceeds from Asset Sales: 4,796 1,839 - 28,850 - - - - - -
Commercial Paper Maturities: - - - (11,228) 11,228 - - - - -
Other Investing Activ., Net: - - (4,973) (934) (762) (3,975) (3,774) (3,767) (3,953) (4,089)
Net Cash Flow from Investing: (12,944) (99,627) (74,188) (283,671) 29,355 (55,788) (51,170) (74,394) (34,548) (35,959)

Financing Activities:
Net Change In:
Deposits: 31,415 82,105 113,512 177,331 (107,700) $ (28,506) $ 22,300 $ 63,588 $ 37,663 $ 44,043
Fed Funds Purchased: (1,862) 36,248 (7,833) 15,250 67,785 23,646 6,784 - 26,908 40,080
Comm. Paper & Borr. Funds 2,618 12,657 41,412 9,186 (76,727) 94 (5,531) (6,214) (8,377) (4,778)
Beneficial Interests: - - 1,070 (2,675) (7,275) - - - - -
Long-Term Debt Issuances: 43,721 56,721 95,141 72,407 51,324 3,001 (111) (356) (5,332) (4,931)
Long-Term Debt Repayment: (26,883) (34,267) (49,410) (62,691) (55,713) - - - - -
Common Stock Issuances: 682 1,659 - 11,500 5,756 3,919 3,919 3,919 3,919 3,919
Excess Tax Benefits: - 302 365 148 17 - - - - -
TARP Preferred Stock: - - - 25,000 - - - - - -
Preferred Stock: - - - 7,746 - - - - - -
Preferred Redemption: (200) (139) - - (25,000) - - - - -
Stock Repurchased: (3,412) (3,938) (8,178) - - (5,000) (22,600) (13,900) (10,000) (10,000)
Dividends Paid: (4,878) (4,846) (5,051) (5,911) (3,422) (2,960) (3,886) (6,764) (8,447) (10,096)
Other Financing, Net: 3,868 6,247 3,028 540 (1,224) - - - - -
Net Cash Flow from Financing: 45,069 152,749 184,056 247,831 (152,179) (5,805) 876 40,274 36,333 58,238

Exchange Rate Effect: (387) 199 424 (507) 238 - - - - -


Net Incr. / (Decr.) in Cash: $ 1,502 $ 3,742 $ (268) $ (13,249) $ (689) $ 1,090 $ 5,330 $ 7,204 $ 6,674 $ 7,369

Ending Cash on Balance Sheet: 36,670 40,412 40,144 26,895 26,206 27,296 32,626 39,830 46,504 53,873
Beginning Cash Balance: 35,168 36,670 40,412 40,144 26,895 26,206 27,296 32,626 39,830 46,504
Ending Cash Balance: $ 36,670 $ 40,412 $ 40,144 $ 26,895 $ 26,206 $ 27,296 $ 32,626 $ 39,830 $ 46,504 $ 53,873

JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Cash Flow Statement Drivers


($ in Millions)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

D&A % Revenue: 5.3% 3.5% 3.4% 4.7% 2.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
CapEx % Revenue: N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
SBC % Revenue: 2.9% 3.9% 2.8% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
Stock Issuances: 682 1,659 - 11,500 5,756 3,919 3,919 3,919 3,919 3,919

JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Dividends and Stock Repurchases / Issuances


($ in Millions)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pre-Dividend and Stock Repurchase Tier 1 Common: $ 126,090 $ 145,560 $ 148,672 $ 159,949 $ 174,912
Risk-Weighted Assets: 1,243,930 1,254,003 1,363,976 1,491,322 1,640,884
Minimum Tier 1 Common Required: 111,954 112,860 122,758 134,219 147,680
Capital Available for Dividends & Stock Repurchases: 14,137 32,700 25,914 25,730 27,232

Basic EPS: $ 2.36 $ 3.93 $ 4.38 $ 0.81 $ 2.25 $ 3.71 $ 4.84 $ 5.87 $ 6.80 $ 7.46
Dividends Per Share: $ 1.36 $ 1.36 $ 1.48 $ 1.52 $ 0.20 $ 0.33 $ 0.58 $ 1.47 $ 2.04 $ 2.61
Dividend Payout Ratio: 57.6% 34.6% 33.8% 187.6% 8.9% 9.0% 12.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Common Dividends: 4,865 4,842 4,610 5,048 468 1,312 2,158 5,036 6,719 8,368
Allowed Dividends: 1,312 2,158 5,036 6,719 8,368

Capital Available for Stock Repurchases: 12,825 30,542 20,879 19,011 18,864
Stock Repurchases / Planned: 3,412 3,938 8,178 - - 5,000 22,600 13,900 10,000 10,000
Allowed Stock Repurchases: 5,000 22,600 13,900 10,000 10,000

Stock Repurchases & Issuances:


Ending Basic Shares: 3,942 3,916 3,521 3,343 3,248 3,161
Average Basic Shares: 3,492 3,470 3,404 3,501 3,863 3,929 3,719 3,432 3,296 3,205
Diluted EPS: $ 2.32 $ 3.82 $ 4.33 $ 0.81 $ 2.24 $ 3.51 $ 4.55 $ 5.44 $ 6.23 $ 6.80
Trailing P/E Multiple: 17.1 x 12.7 x 10.1 x 39.2 x 18.6 x 12.0 x 11.5 x 11.0 x 11.0 x 10.5 x
Actual or Implied Stock Price: $ 39.69 $ 48.30 $ 43.65 $ 31.53 $ 41.67 $ 42.14 $ 52.38 $ 59.85 $ 68.56 $ 71.36

Stock Repurchases: (3,412) (3,938) (8,178) - - (5,000) (22,600) (13,900) (10,000) (10,000)
Stock Issuances: 682 1,659 - 11,500 5,756 3,919 3,919 3,919 3,919 3,919

# Shares Repurchased: (119.3) (478.2) (247.7) (155.8) (142.9)


# Shares Issued: 93.5 82.9 69.8 61.0 56.0
Net Change in Basic Shares: (25.8) (395.3) (177.9) (94.7) (86.9)

Diluted Shares:
Dilution from Options: - 8.1 48.9 76.3 91.9
RSU Outstanding: 221.3 221.3 221.3 221.3 221.3
Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding: 4,150 3,948 3,702 3,593 3,518
Comparable Companies - US-Based Diversified Commercial Banks with Over $1 Trillion in Assets
($ in Millions Except Per Share Amounts)

Operating Statistics Capitalization & Assets Earnings Per Share (EPS)(3)


Share Equity Tangible Total Actual
Company Name Price(1) Value Book Value(2) Assets 2009
Citigroup Inc. $ 3.31 $ 94,258 $ 118,282 $ 1,856,646 $ (0.76)
Bank of America Corporation 15.06 151,082 95,896 2,223,299 (0.40)
Wells Fargo & Company 26.99 139,828 78,489 1,243,646 1.75

Maximum $ 26.99 $ 151,082 $ 118,282 $ 2,223,299 $ 1.75


75th Percentile 21.03 145,455 107,089 2,039,973 0.68
Median $ 15.06 $ 139,828 $ 95,896 $ 1,856,646 $ (0.40)
25th Percentile 9.19 117,043 87,193 1,550,146 (0.58)
Minimum 3.31 94,258 78,489 1,243,646 (0.76)

JPMorgan Chase & Co. $ 41.67 $ 174,775 $ 104,235 $ 2,031,989 $ 2.24

Valuation Statistics Capitalization & Assets Price / EPS(3)


Share Equity Tangible Total Actual
Company Name Price(1)
Value Book Value Assets
(2)
2009
Citigroup Inc. $ 3.31 $ 94,258 $ 118,282 $ 1,856,646 NM
Bank of America Corporation 15.06 151,082 95,896 2,223,299 NM
Wells Fargo & Company 26.99 139,828 78,489 1,243,646 15.4 x

Maximum $ 26.99 $ 151,082 $ 118,282 $ 2,223,299 15.4 x


75th Percentile 21.03 145,455 107,089 2,039,973 15.4 x
Median $ 15.06 $ 139,828 $ 95,896 $ 1,856,646 15.4 x
25th Percentile 9.19 117,043 87,193 1,550,146 15.4 x
Minimum 3.31 94,258 78,489 1,243,646 15.4 x

JPMorgan Chase & Co. $ 41.67 $ 174,775 $ 104,235 $ 2,031,989 18.6 x

(1) Share Prices as of December 31, 2009.


(2) Tangible Book Value excludes Preferred Stock, Non-Controlling Interests, Goodwill, and non-MSR Intangible Assets.
(3) EPS excludes discontinued operations and other one-time charges.
(4) Tangible Equity excludes Preferred Stock, Non-Controlling Interests, Goodwill, and non-MSR Intangible Assets.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)(3) Tangible BV Per Share(2) Return on Tangible Equity(4)
Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected
2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
$ 0.39 $ 0.41 $ 4.15 $ 4.25 $ 4.75 (15.3%) 9.3% 9.1%
1.27 1.83 11.54 13.68 15.06 (3.5%) 10.7% 14.4%
2.21 3.74 14.88 15.92 19.46 11.8% 13.9% 19.2%

$ 2.21 $ 3.74 $ 14.88 $ 15.92 $ 19.46 11.8% 13.9% 19.2%


1.74 2.79 13.21 14.80 17.26 4.2% 12.3% 16.8%
$ 1.27 $ 1.83 $ 11.54 $ 13.68 $ 15.06 (3.5%) 10.7% 14.4%
0.83 1.12 7.85 8.97 9.91 (9.4%) 10.0% 11.8%
0.39 0.41 4.15 4.25 4.75 (15.3%) 9.3% 9.1%

$ 3.51 $ 4.55 $ 26.44 $ 30.83 $ 34.63 9.3% 13.0% 14.9%

Price / EPS(3) Price / Tangible BV Per Share(2)


Projected Actual Projected
2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
8.5 x 8.1 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x
11.9 x 8.2 x 1.3 x 1.1 x 1.0 x
12.2 x 7.2 x 1.8 x 1.7 x 1.4 x

12.2 x 8.2 x 1.8 x 1.7 x 1.4 x


12.0 x 8.2 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 1.2 x
11.9 x 8.1 x 1.3 x 1.1 x 1.0 x
10.2 x 7.6 x 1.1 x 0.9 x 0.8 x
8.5 x 7.2 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x

11.9 x 9.1 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 1.2 x

nd non-MSR Intangible Assets.

on-MSR Intangible Assets.


Diversified Commercial Bank Transactions Worth Over $1 Billion Equity Value with US-Based Sellers Since 1/1/2008
($ in Millions Except Per Share Amounts)

Err:502
Purchase
Equity
Acquirer Name Target Name Date Value
Bank of America Corporation Merrill Lynch & Co Inc. 9/15/2008 $ 48,766
Wells Fargo & Company Wachovia Corporation 10/3/2008 15,112
PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. National City Corporation 10/24/2008 5,618
Bank of America Corporation Countrywide Financial Corporation 1/11/2008 4,144
JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. 3/16/2008 1,181

Maximum $ 48,766
75th Percentile 15,112
Median $ 5,618
25th Percentile 4,144
Minimum 1,181

(1) Tangible Book Value excludes Preferred Stock, Non-Controlling Interests, Goodwill, and non-MSR Intangible Assets.
(2) EPS excludes discontinued operations and other one-time charges.
d Sellers Since 1/1/2008

Operating Metrics Valuation Multiples


Tangible
Total Book Trailing Trailing Trailing Trailing
Assets Value (1)
EPS (2)
TBVPS (1)
P/E (2)
P / TBV(1)
$ 966,210 $ 16,054 $ (22.57) $ 16.83 NM 3.0 x
812,443 26,367 (3.67) 13.20 NM 0.6 x
153,673 13,642 (3.44) 20.94 NM 0.4 x
209,236 15,252 (0.23) 26.20 NM 0.3 x
395,362 10,489 1.52 71.63 5.3 x 0.1 x

$ 966,210 $ 26,367 $ 1.52 $ 71.63 5.3 x 3.0 x


812,443 16,054 (0.23) 26.20 5.3 x 0.6 x
$ 395,362 $ 15,252 $ (3.44) $ 20.94 5.3 x 0.4 x
209,236 13,642 (3.67) 16.83 5.3 x 0.3 x
153,673 10,489 (22.57) 13.20 5.3 x 0.1 x

n-MSR Intangible Assets.


JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Dividend Discount Model
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Historical Projected
December 30, 2009 2010 2011 2012
Normalized Net Income to Common: $ 8,698 $ 16,630 $ 18,166 $ 19,619
% Growth: 206.7% 91.2% 9.2% 8.0%
Common Dividends: 468 6,698 11,650 12,285
% Growth: (90.7%) 1331.1% 73.9% 5.4%
Payout Ratio: 5.4% 40.3% 64.1% 62.6%

Beginning Common Equity: $ 134,945 $ 157,213 $ 169,484 $ 178,165


Plus: Net Income to Common: 16,630 18,166 19,619
Plus: Stock Issuances: 3,919 3,919 3,919
Plus: Stock-Based Comp.: 3,419 3,246 3,240
Plus: Exchange Rate Effect: - - -
Less: Stock Repurchases: (5,000) (5,000) (5,000)
Less: Common Dividends: (6,698) (11,650) (12,285)
Ending Common Equity: $ 157,213 $ 169,484 $ 178,165 $ 187,658

Avg. Risk-Weighted Assets: 1,198,006 1,293,846 1,397,354 1,509,143


% Growth: (3.7%) 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%

Tier 1 Common Ratio: 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%


Return on Tangible Common Equity: 9.3% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

Tangible Common Equity / Tier 1 Common Capital Calculation:


Ending Common Equity: $ 157,213 $ 169,484 $ 178,165 $ 187,658
Less: Disallowed Intangibles: (52,004) (53,037) (52,403) (51,835)
Plus: Other Adjustments: 75 - - -
Total Tier 1 Common Capital: $ 105,284 $ 116,446 $ 125,762 $ 135,823

Discount Period: 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0


Mid-Year Discount Period: 0.5 1.5 2.5
PV of Dividends: $ 6,383 $ 10,083 $ 9,656

Err:502
Cost of Equity
Terminal Earnings
Growth Rate
Terminal P / TBV Terminal Ear
Multiple Growth R
Err:502
Cost of Equity
DDM Assumptions

Projected Use Multiples Method? Yes


2013 2014 Mid-Year Convention: 0.50
$ 18,275 $ 19,554 Maturity Year Begins: 2013
(6.9%) 7.0%
11,583 12,153 Minimum Tier 1 Common Ratio: 9.0%
(5.7%) 4.9% Terminal Earnings Growth Rate: 4.9%
63.4% 62.2% Annual Stock Repurchases: $ 5,000

$ 187,658 $ 196,669 Return on Tangible Common Equity:


18,275 19,554 Development: 15.0%
3,919 3,919 Maturity: 13.0%
3,400 3,517
- - Risk-Weighted Assets Growth:
(5,000) (5,000) Development: 8.0%
(11,583) (12,153) Maturity: 7.0%
$ 196,669 $ 206,506
Cost of Equity: 10.11%
1,614,783 1,727,817
7.0% 7.0% Terminal Value:
Sum of PV of Dividends: $ 42,270
9.0% 9.0%
13.0% 13.0% Terminal P / TBV: 1.50 x
Terminal Value (Growth): 245,703
Terminal Value (Multiple): 233,255
$ 196,669 $ 206,506 PV of Terminal Value: 144,111
(51,338) (51,002)
- - Present Value of Equity: $ 186,381
$ 145,330 $ 155,504
Diluted Shares:
4.0 5.0 Implied Share Price:
3.5 4.5
$ 8,269 $ 7,879 Options: 266.6 $ 45.83
Discount Rate Calculation - Assumptions
BIWS:
10-Year US Treasury (Risk-Free Rate): 4.41% Per US Treasury website
Equity Risk Premium: 5.00% as of 12/31/09:
http://www.ustreas.gov/of
fices/domestic-
finance/debt-
Comparable Companies - Levered Beta Calculation management/interest-
Equity Levered rate/ltcompositeindex_hist
orical.shtml
Name Value Beta
Citigroup Inc. $ 94,258 2.64
Bank of America Corporation 151,082 2.27
Wells Fargo & Company 139,828 1.35

Median $ 139,828 2.27

JPMorgan Chase & Co. $ 174,775 1.14

Cost of Equity Based on Comparables: 15.76%


Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta: 10.11%

You might also like