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Weekly U.S. Economic Update


(November 15, 2010)

Economic data continues to surprise on the upside, leading forecasters to increase growth Contents:
expectations through the end of the year. The upcoming retail sales release is expected to add
further evidence of reaccelerating economic activity and is the highlight of the week. Other data Economic Overview 2
will cover manufacturing, housing and inflation.
Interest Rates 2

Q3 GDP growth looks to be revised up from the initially reported 2.0% Q/Q SAAR, while Upcoming Economic 3
expectations for Q4 GDP have risen to 2.3% Q/Q SAAR. Releases

Central Bank Watch 7


The upcoming business inventories release could add further to Q3 GDP, following strong
growth in wholesale inventories. Select Financial
Market Indicators 8

The Index of Leading Indicators is expected to accelerate, supporting a reacceleration in Commitment of Traders 9
GDP growth.
Full U.S. Economic 10
Calendar
The 4.3% rise in unit auto sales suggests a substantial gain in retail sales, but slower same-
store sales could indicate weakness in ex-auto retail sales. International Economic 11
Calendars

Global PMIs suggest that manufacturing activity continues to expand, which should help this Disclaimers 12
weeks Industrial Production and Empire and Philadelphia Fed releases.

The core CPI is expected to fall to 0.7% Y/Y, a 49-year low. However, headline inflation Team Mailbox:
remains higher due to food and energy price inflation. Ally.Economics@ally.com

Market Quotes Weekly Economic Calendar


11/12 1W Ago 1M Ago 12M Ago Date Time Release Period Survey Previous
Equities 11/15 8:30 AM Advance Retail Sales OCT 0.7% 0.0
DJIA 11,192.6 11,444.1 11,020.4 8,331.3 11/15 8:30 AM Retail Sales Less Autos OCT 0.0 0.0
S&P 500 1,199.2 1,225.9 1,169.8 893.1 11/15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing NOV 13 16
NASDAQ 2,518.2 2,579.0 2,417.9 1,689.2 11/15 10:00 AM Business Inventories SEP 0.6% 0.6%
VIX (INDEX) 20.6 18.3 18.9 31.4 11/16 8:30 AM Producer Price Index (MoM) OCT 0.8% 0.4%
Commodities 11/16 8:30 AM PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) OCT 0.0 0.0
Gold 1,368.1 1,393.7 1,350.4 926.5 11/16 9:00 AM Net Long-term TIC Flows SEP -- $128.7B
Oil 84.6 86.9 82.5 69.0 11/16 9:15 AM Industrial Production OCT 0.3% -0.2%
Natural Gas 3.8 3.9 4.0 7.2 11/16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization OCT 74.9% 74.7%
Foreign Exchange 11/16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index NOV 17 16
EUR 1.37 1.40 1.39 1.36 11/17 8:30 AM Consumer Price Index (MoM) OCT 0.0 0.0
GBP 1.61 1.62 1.58 1.52 11/17 8:30 AM CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) OCT 0.1% 0.0%
JPY 82.50 81.26 81.72 95.80 11/17 8:30 AM Housing Starts OCT 600K 610K
CAD 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.17 11/17 8:30 AM Building Permits OCT 565K 539K
MXN 12.36 12.20 12.40 13.20 11/18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators OCT 0.5% 0.3%
BRL 1.72 1.68 1.65 2.09 11/18 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed. NOV 5.0 1.0
CNY 6.64 6.66 6.67 6.82 11/18 4:00 PM RPX Composite 28dy YoY SEP -- -2.7%
Source: Ally Economics, Bloomberg (11/12 data as of 4:00 pm)

2010 Ally Financial Inc. 1 11/12/2010


See disclaimers on last page
Ally Economics
U.S. Economic Research

Economic Overview
Q3 GDP growth looks to be revised up from the initially Global PMIs suggest that manufacturing activity continues to
reported 2.0% Q/Q SAAR, while expectations for Q4 GDP expand, which should help this weeks Industrial Production
have risen to 2.3% Q/Q SAAR. The upcoming business and Empire and Philadelphia Fed releases. A rebound in utility
inventories release could add further to Q3 GDP, following production following its 1.9% M/M decline in September should
strong growth in wholesale inventories. also help Industrial Production.

The Index of Leading Indicators is expected to accelerate, The core CPI is expected to fall to 0.7% Y/Y, a 49-year low.
supporting a reacceleration in GDP growth. Growth in leading The current trend in core inflation in both the CPI and finished
indicators is being driven by the interest rate spread, which is goods PPI remains weak. However, food prices continue to
likely to add 0.2 percentage points (pp), after adding 0.3 pp in advance, driven by higher food commodity prices. In addition,
September. Also adding to October Leading Indicators are a energy prices rose in Octoberwholesale gasoline prices rose
4.4% increase in equity prices, a 0.2% increase in 9.9% M/M and retail gasoline prices rose 3.5% M/M.
manufacturing hours worked and an expansion in the money
supply. Housing data is expected to show that the market for new
homes remains weak. Housing starts are expected to fall 1.6%
The 4.3% rise in unit auto sales suggests a substantial gain in M/M and homebuilder sentiment will continue to indicate poor
retail sales, but slower same-store sales could indicate conditions for new construction despite the expected one point
weakness in ex-auto retail sales. increase.

Interest Rates
Yields were unable to hold their low levels from last week at bid-to-cover in almost a year at 2.31. The thirty-year has
the long end of the yield curve, as markets waited for the Fed underperformed as of late as Fed purchases in the sector look
to ramp up its Treasury purchases. In the week after the Feds to be lighter than those of shorter maturities. This past week,
announcement, the Fed purchased $11 billion of additional the 30-year yield closed above 4.20% for the first time since
Treasuries, which is below the announced $75 billion per June.
month pace. The Feds schedule of Treasury purchases looks
to add $105 billion of Treasury purchases from November 12th For the week, the two-year Treasury yield rose 14 bps to
to December 9th, making up for the slow kick off to QEII. 0.50%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose 25 bps to 2.79%.
These purchases seem to be especially heavy in the seven to The 2s10s spread widened to 2.28% from 2.16% the prior
10-year sector compared to issuance. week. The 3-month TED (LIBOR-Treasury) spread fell 1 bps
16 bps. Further out the curve, 10-year swap spreads were
Even with a gap between the Feds announcement and the unchanged at 14 bps. Corporate credit risk spreads widened
ramp up of its purchases, the market had trouble digesting new on the week according to the Markit CDX North American
supply this past week. The 30-year auction saw the weakest Investment Grade Index.

Interest Rate Quotes


Swap Curve Swap Spreads LIBOR/Swap Rates
11/12/10 11/5/10 Change 11/12/10 11/5/10 Change 4.00%

1M (LIBOR) 0.25% 0.25% 0.00% 1M 0.15% 0.14% 0.01% 3.50%


3M (LIBOR) 0.28% 0.29% 0.00% 3M (TED) 0.16% 0.17% -0.01%
3.00%
6M (LIBOR) 0.44% 0.44% 0.00% 6M 0.28% 0.29% -0.01%
2.50%
1Y 0.47% 0.40% 0.07% 1Y 0.23% 0.20% 0.02%
2Y 0.72% 0.53% 0.20% 2Y 0.22% 0.16% 0.06% 2.00%

3Y 1.00% 0.73% 0.27% 3Y 0.25% 0.22% 0.02% 1.50%


5Y 1.66% 1.36% 0.30% 5Y 0.30% 0.27% 0.03%
1.00%
10Y 2.92% 2.67% 0.26% 10Y 0.14% 0.14% 0.00%
0.50%
30Y 3.91% 3.75% 0.15% 30Y -0.38% -0.37% -0.01%
0.00%
1M 3M 12M 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr
Treasuries Generic Financial (BBB)
11/5/10 11/12/10
1M (T-BILL) 0.10% 0.11% -0.01%
3M (T-BILL) 0.12% 0.11% 0.01% 3M 2.22% 2.41% -0.19%
TREASURIES
6M (T-BILL) 0.16% 0.15% 0.01% 6M 2.20% 2.39% -0.20% 4.00%

1Y (T-BILL) 0.25% 0.20% 0.05% 1Y 2.18% 2.36% -0.17% 3.50%


2Y 0.50% 0.37% 0.14% 2Y 2.48% 2.62% -0.14%
3.00%
3Y 0.76% 0.51% 0.25% 3Y 3.29% 3.38% -0.10%
2.50%
5Y 1.37% 1.09% 0.27% 5Y 3.58% 3.66% -0.08%
10Y 2.79% 2.53% 0.25% 10Y 4.98% 5.10% -0.12% 2.00%

30Y 4.28% 4.12% 0.16% 30Y 6.67% 6.66% 0.01% 1.50%

1.00%
U.S. Benchmark Rates Key Spreads
0.50%
FF Effective 0.22% 0.20% 0.02% 2/10s 2.28% 2.16% 0.12%
FF Target 0.25% 0.25% 0.00% TED Spread 0.16% 0.17% -0.01% 0.00%

Prime 3.25% 3.25% 0.00% LIBOR - OIS 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 1M 3M 12M 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
11/5/10 11/12/10
Source:AllyEconomics,Bloomberg(11/12dataasof4:00pm)

2010 Ally Financial Inc. 2 11/12/2010


See disclaimers on last page
Ally Economics
U.S. Economic Research

Upcoming Economic Releases

Ex-Auto Retail Sales


Retail Sales (OCT)
Estimates: Headline 0.7% M/M, Ex-Auto 0.4% M/M 2% 10%
Prior: Headline 0.6% M/M, Ex-Auto 0.4% M/M 8%
1%
6%
Both headline and ex-auto sales are expected to continue
4%
expansion for a fourth month. Headline sales should be higher 0%

Y/Y % Change
M/M% Change
than ex-auto sales as unit auto sales rose 4.3% M/M in October 2%

to their highest level for the year. There is downside risk for -1% 0%

sales ex-auto and gas as same-store sales decreased by 0.7% Consensus -2%

M/M. -2%
-4%

-6%
-3%
-8%

-4% -10%

May-09

May-10
Nov-08

Mar-09
Apr-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Mar-10
Apr-10

Aug-10
Oct-08

Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09

Jun-09
Jul-09

Sep-09
Oct-09

Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10

Jun-10
Jul-10

Sep-10
Oct-10
M/M % change (LHS) Y/Y % change (RHS)
Sources: Ally Economics, Haver Analytics (Census)

Empire Manufacturing (NOV) Empire Manufacturing


Cons: 14.00 40
Consensus

Prior: 15.73 30

Consensus expects manufacturing activity to expand for the 20

15th consecutive month in November. In October, the headline 10


index rose, in-line with the October ISM Manufacturing Index.
(SA, Net %)

The underlying details were also encouraging as seven of nine 0

sub-indexes increasing M-M. Inventories and average -10


workweek were the only two sub-indexes to decline M-M.
-20

-30

-40
Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Oct-10
Sources: Ally Economics, Haver Analytics (Federal Reserve Bank New York)

Business Inventories
Business Inventories (SEP)
1.5% 10%
Cons: 0.6% M/M
Prior: 0.6% M/M 1.0%
5%

0.5%
0%
Total business inventories rose 0.6% M/M in August. The total 0.0%

business inventories-to-sales (I/S) ratio rose to 1.27 after


M/M%

Y/Y%

-0.5% -5%
remaining at 1.26 for two consecutive months. Automotive
inventories rose 1.3% M/M in August, following a 3.3% M/M -1.0%
-10%
decline in July. -1.5%
-15%
-2.0%
Business inventories, together with the September wholesale Consensus

inventory data released last week will be watched to assess the -2.5% -20%

amount of revision to Q3 GDPs inventory component in the


May-09

May-10
Nov-08

Mar-09

Nov-09

Mar-10
Jul-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

BEAs second estimate.


M/M% [LHS] Y/Y% [RHS]

Sources: Ally Economics, Haver Analytics (Census Bureau)

2010 Ally Financial Inc.


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U.S. Economic Research

PPI (OCT) Core PPI


Cons: Headline 0.8% M/M; Core 0.1% M/M 0.8% 5%
Prior: Headline 0.8% M/M; Core 0.1% M/M 5%
0.6%
4%
The core finished goods index is expected to have risen a 0.4% 4%
trend-like 0.1% M/M in October. The headline finished goods

M/M% C hange

Y/Y% C hange
3%
PPI is expected to have risen 0.8% M/M driven by a 9.9% M/M 0.2%
3%
rise in wholesale gasoline prices and a likely continued rise in 0.0%
2%
finished food prices, which rose 1.2% M/M in September. The
crude PPI index rose 20.3% Y/Y in September, showing the -0.2% 2%

impact of rising commodity prices. 1%


-0.4%
1%

-0.6% 0%

Apr-08

Aug-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Apr-10

Aug-10
Oct-07
D ec-07
Feb-08

Jun-08

Oct-08
D ec-08
Feb-09

Jun-09

Oct-09

D ec-09
Feb-10

Jun-10

Oct-10
M/M [LHS] Y/Y [RHS]
Sources: Ally Economics, BLS

TIC Flows (SEP) TIC Flows and Trade-Weighted Dollar


Prior: $38.9 billion 200 115

Long-Term TIC Flows may have moderated in September from 150 110
Augusts $128.7 billion as the dollar declined. However, banks'

Index (Jan-97=100)
own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents 100 105
Level (Billion $s)

decreased $102.6 billion, which weighed on total TIC flows.


50 100
Since those liabilities are unlikely to have declined at a similar
pace in September, total TIC flows could have accelerated from
0 95
Augusts $38.9 billion.
-50 90

-100 85
Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-05
Jan-06

Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07

Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08

Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09

Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10

Jul-10
Oct-10
Net Long-Term TIC FLow s (LHS) Trade-Weighted Dollar (RHS)
Sources: Ally Economics, Haver Analytics (Federal Reserve, Treasury)

Industrial Production (OCT) Industrial Production


2% 10%
Cons: 0.3% M/M, CapU 74.9%
Prior: -0.2% M/M, CapU 74.7% 1%
5%

Industrial production in October is expected to have increased 0%


0.3% M/M. The decline in September was driven by utilities (-
0%
1.9% M/M). Motor vehicle production rose 0.5% M/M, following -1%
M/M%

Y/Y%

a 6.3% M/M decline in August. Capacity utilization declined 10


-2%
bps M-M to 74.7%, following 14 consecutive months of -5%

increases. The market expects the utilization rate to increase to -3%


the highest level since November 2008. Consensus
-10%
-4%

-5% -15%
Apr-09

Aug-09

Apr-10

Aug-10
Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Jun-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Jun-10

Oct-10

M/M% [LHS] Y/Y% [RHS]


Sources: Ally Economics, Haver Analytics (Federal Reserve)

2010 Ally Financial Inc.


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Ally Economics
U.S. Economic Research

Housing Market Index


NAHB Housing Market Index (OCT)
Estimate: 17 80
Prior: 16
70

Homebuilder sentiment, as measured by the NAHB Housing 60


Market Index, is expected to increase to 17 in November.

Index (All Good = 100)


50
Sentiment remains at low levels reflecting the adverse market
conditions that builders face due to weak sales and a large 40
overhang of housing inventory.
30

20

10

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-01

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10
Sources: Ally Economics, Haver Analytics (NAHB)

Housing Starts and Building Permits (OCT) Housing Starts


Estimates: Starts 600K, Permits 570K
Prior: Starts 610K, Permits 547K 60% 25%

20%
Housing Starts are expected to have fallen 1.6% M/M in 40%
15%
October. Building Permits are expected to have increased M/M
to 570K. Both permits and starts remain near their series lows. 20% 10%

The large overhang of inventory in the housing market 5%


Y/Y %

M/M %
0%
suggests that starts will remain well below their ten year 0%
average of 1,500K for an extended time period. -20% -5%

-10%
-40%
-15%

-60% -20%
May-09

May-10
Nov-08

Mar-09
Apr-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Mar-10
Apr-10

Aug-10
Sep-08
Oct-08

Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09

Jun-09
Jul-09

Sep-09
Oct-09

Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10

Jun-10
Jul-10

Sep-10
Oct-10
M/M % change (RHS) Y/Y % change (LHS)
Sources: Ally Economics, Census Bureau

CPI (OCT) Core CPI


Estimate: Headline 0.3% M/M; Core 0.1% M/M 0.35% 3.0%

Prior: Headline 0.1% M/M, Core 0.0% M/M 0.30%


0.25% 2.5%

The core CPI is expected to have risen a trend-like 0.1% M/M 0.20%
2.0%
in October. The headline CPI is expected to have risen 0.3% 0.15%
M/M% C hange

Y/Y% C hange

M/M driven by a 3.5% M/M rise in retail gasoline prices and a 0.10%
1.5%
likely continued rise in food prices, which rose 0.3% M/M in 0.05%
September. The core CPI is expected to fall to 0.7% Y/Y, which 0.00%
1.0%
would be a 49-year low. -0.05%
-0.10% 0.5%
-0.15%
-0.20% 0.0%
Apr-08

Aug-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Apr-10

Aug-10
D ec-07
Feb-08

Jun-08

Oct-08

D ec-08
Feb-09

Jun-09

Oct-09

D ec-09
Feb-10

Jun-10

Oct-10

M/M [LHS] Y/Y [RHS]


Sources: Ally Economics, BLS

2010 Ally Financial Inc.


See disclaimers on the last page 5 11/12/2010
Ally Economics
U.S. Economic Research

Philly Fed (NOV) Philly Fed Headline


Cons: 5.0 30 Consensus

Prior: 1.0 20

Expectations are calling for the index to increase M-M to 5.0 10

from 1.0 in October. In October, strength was broad-based as


0
seven out of the nine sub-indexes posted increases month-to-

(SA, %)
month. Inventories and unfilled orders were the only two sub- -10
indexes to decline M-M.
-20

-30

-40

-50

May-06

May-07

May-08

May-09

May-10
Nov-05

Aug-06

Nov-06

Aug-07

Nov-07

Aug-08

Nov-08

Aug-09

Nov-09

Aug-10

Nov-10
Feb-06

Feb-07

Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10
Sources: Ally Economics, Federal Reserve Philadelphia

Leading Indicators (OCT) Leading Indicators and Monthly GDP


14% 7%
Estimate: 0.5% M/M
12% 6%
Prior: 0.3% M/M
10% 5%

8% 4%
The Index of Leading Indicators is expected to have risen 0.5%
6% 3%
M/M in October. Leading growth is the interest rate spread,
4% 2%
which is likely to add 0.2 percentage points (pp), after adding
Y/Y %

Y/Y %
0.3 pp in September. Also adding to October Leading 2% 1%

Indicators are a 4.4% increase in equity prices, a 0.2% 0% 0%

increase in manufacturing hours worked and an expansion in -2% -1%

the money supply. -4% -2%

-6% -3%

-8% -4%

-10% -5%
Oct-00

Oct-01

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10
Apr-01

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Leading Indicators [LHS] Monthly GDP [RHS]
Sources: Ally Economics, Haver Analytics (Conference Board, Macroeconomic Advisers)

2010 Ally Financial Inc.


See disclaimers on the last page 6 11/12/2010
Ally Economics
U.S. Economic Research

Central Bank Watch


(November 12, 2010)

Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserves announcement of further Treasury purchases attracted comments not only from foreign officials but also some
domestic political figures. Yet, in the week after the Feds announcement, the Fed purchased $11 billion of additional Treasuries, which
is below the announced $75 billion per month pace. The Feds schedule of Treasury purchases looks to add $105 billion of Treasury
purchases from November 12th to December 9th, making up for the slow kick off to QEII.

European Central Bank (ECB)

Attention turned to the Irish sovereign risks during the week. Patrick Honohan, the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, did not quell
market concerns when he said, I sense a concern in the market that some other problems might be hiding somewhere.

Aside from the reemerging sovereign debt concerns, there is growing friction over the value of the dollar. ECB President Trichet has
avoided criticizing the Feds expansion of Treasury purchases. However, German Finance Minister Schaeuble told Der Spiegel, Its
inconsistent for the Americans to accuse the Chinese of manipulating exchange rates and then to artificially depress dollar exchange
rate by printing money. Therefore, the political pressure on the ECB to criticize the Fed is likely to grow.

Bank of England (BOE)

The BOEs Inflation report stated, Inflation is likely to stay above the 2% target throughout 2011, given the forthcoming rise in
VAT and continuing increases in import prices. As the impact of those factors on inflation diminishes, inflation is likely to fall
back, reflecting continuing downward pressure from the persistent margin of spare capacity. With regard to GDP the report
noted that GDP is likely to slow from Q3s 0.8% Q/Q growth and output is likely to remain significantly below the level implied
by a continuation of its pre-recession trend.

Bank of Canada (BOC)

The unemployment rate declined to 7.9% in October, matching its post-recession low. Ahead of the CPI release on November 23rd,
Bank of Canada Governor Carney has avoided making comments on monetary policy.

Peoples Bank of China (PBOC)

Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said, Around the world we have $10 trillion of hot money flowing around, more than the
$9 trillion in hot money at the beginning of the global financial crisis. [The U.S.] has not fully taken into consideration the shock of
excessive capital flows to the financial stability of emerging markets.

After Chinas trade surplus reached a three-month high of $27.15 billion, the PBOC raised the reserve ratios by 0.5 percentage points
effective November 16. For large banks this will raise the reserve ratio to 18%.

2010 Ally Financial Inc.


See disclaimers on the last page 7 11/12/2010
$/Bbl EUR/USD Index .

10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90

$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
11/12/2008
11/12/2008 11/12/2008
12/12/2008
1/12/2009
1/12/2009 1/12/2009

2/12/2009
3/12/2009
3/12/2009 3/12/2009

Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg

Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg


Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg
4/12/2009
5/12/2009
5/12/2009 5/12/2009

2010 Ally Financial Inc.


6/12/2009
7/12/2009
7/12/2009 7/12/2009

See disclaimers on the last page


8/12/2009
U.S. Economic Research

9/12/2009
9/12/2009 9/12/2009
10/12/2009
11/12/2009
11/12/2009 11/12/2009
12/12/2009
1/12/2010 1/12/2010 1/12/2010

2/12/2010
3/12/2010 3/12/2010 3/12/2010

4/12/2010

Fig. 3 Oil at $84.81, decreased by $2.04 $/bbl


(Updated through mid-day November 12, 2010)

5/12/2010 5/12/2010
Select Financial Market Indicators

5/12/2010
Fig. 1 VIX at 20.7, decreased by 2.5 for the week

6/12/2010
7/12/2010 7/12/2010 7/12/2010

8/12/2010

9/12/2010 9/12/2010 9/12/2010

Fig. 2 EUR/USD at 1.37, the EUR fell by 2.7% for the week
10/12/2010

11/12/2010 11/12/2010 11/12/2010

8
Index (Jan 1, 2010 = 1) Bps . $/Troy oz.

board
0
50
100
150
200
250

0.84
0.88
0.92
0.96
1.00
1.04
1.08
1.12
1.16
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500

1/8/10 11/12/2008
1/15/10 11/12/2008
1/22/10
1/29/10
2/5/10 1/12/2009
2/12/10 1/12/2009
2/19/10
2/26/10 3/12/2009
3/5/10 3/12/2009

Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg


Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg

Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg


3/12/10
3/19/10
3/26/10 5/12/2009
4/2/10 5/12/2009

Mexico IPC Index


4/9/10
4/16/10 7/12/2009
4/23/10 7/12/2009
4/30/10

NASDAQ Composite Index


5/7/10

Dow Jones Industrial Average


5/14/10 9/12/2009
5/21/10 9/12/2009
5/28/10
Fig. 4 Gold fell 3.2% to $1,364.

6/4/10
6/11/10 11/12/2009
11/12/2009
6/18/10
6/25/10
7/2/10 1/12/2010
7/9/10 1/12/2010
7/16/10
7/23/10
7/30/10 3/12/2010 3/12/2010
8/6/10
8/13/10
8/20/10

S&P 500 Index


5/12/2010
Fig. 5 TED Spread at 16.3, tightened by 0.8 bps

8/27/10 5/12/2010
9/3/10
9/10/10

Brazil Bovespa Index


9/17/10 7/12/2010 7/12/2010
9/24/10

S&P/TSX Composite Index


10/1/10
10/8/10
Fig. 6 Equity Indices: Americas were weaker across the

10/15/10 9/12/2010 9/12/2010


10/22/10
10/29/10
11/5/10 11/12/2010
11/12/2010

11/12/2010
11/12/10
Ally Economics
Ally Economics
U.S. Economic Research

Commitment of Traders: Futures and Options

Every Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission


(CFTC) releases data on the futures and options trading activity
by market segment. The below graphs represent the net long
futures and options positions (long positions less short positions)
of the non-commercial reportable traders. These traders are
considered large speculators whose position size requires
reporting to the CFTC.

Two-year Treasuries (Net Non-commercial Long Positions) Ten-year Treasuries (Net Non-commercial Long Positions)
300,000 700,000

600,000
200,000
500,000

400,000
100,000

Net Long Positions


Net Long Positions

300,000

0 200,000

100,000
-100,000
0

-100,000
-200,000
-200,000

-300,000 -300,000

May-08

May-09

May-10
May-08

May-09

May-10

Nov-07

Mar-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Nov-10
Nov-07

Mar-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Nov-10

Jan-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Sep-10
Jan-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Sources: Ally Economics, CFTC Sources: Ally Economics, CFTC

S&P 500 (Net Non-commercial Long Positions) Dollar Index (Net Non-commercial Long Positions)
60,000 50,000

40,000
40,000

30,000
20,000
20,000
Net Long Positions
Net Long Positions

0 10,000

-20,000 0

-10,000
-40,000
-20,000

-60,000
-30,000

-80,000 -40,000
May-08

May-09

May-10

May-08

May-09

May-10
Nov-07

Mar-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Nov-10

Nov-07

Mar-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Nov-10
Jan-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Jan-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Sep-10
Sources: Ally Economics, CFTC Sources: Ally Economics, CFTC

Light Sweet Crude Oil (Net Non-commercial Long Positions) Gold (Net Non-commercial Long Positions)
250,000 350,000

300,000
200,000

250,000
Net Long Positions

Net Long Positions

150,000
200,000

150,000
100,000

100,000

50,000
50,000

0 0
May-08

May-09

May-10
Nov-07

Mar-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Nov-10

May-08

May-09

May-10
Jan-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-07

Mar-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Nov-10
Jan-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Sources: Ally Economics, CFTC Sources: Ally Economics, CFTC

2010 Ally Financial Inc. 9 11/12/2010


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Ally Economics
U.S. Economic Research

U.S. Economic Calendar


Date Time Release Period Survey Previous
11/15 8:30 AM Advance Retail Sales OCT 0.7% 0.6%
11/15 8:30 AM Retail Sales Less Autos OCT 0.4% 0.4%
11/15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing NOV 12.8 15.7
11/15 10:00 AM Business Inventories SEP 0.6% 0.6%
11/16 8:30 AM Producer Price Index (MoM) OCT 0.8% 0.4%
11/16 8:30 AM PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) OCT 0.1% 0.1%
11/16 9:00 AM Total Net TIC Flows SEP -- $38.9B
11/16 9:00 AM Net Long-term TIC Flows SEP -- $128.7B
11/16 9:15 AM Industrial Production OCT 0.3% -0.2%
11/16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization OCT 74.9% 74.7%
11/16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index NOV 17.0 16.0
11/17 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications 12-Nov -- 5.8%
11/17 8:30 AM Consumer Price Index (MoM) OCT 0.3% 0.1%
11/17 8:30 AM CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) OCT 0.1% 0.0%
11/17 8:30 AM Housing Starts OCT 600K 610K
11/17 8:30 AM Building Permits OCT 565K 539K
11/18 8:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims 13-Nov 438K 435K
11/18 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 6-Nov -- 4301K
11/18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators OCT 0.5% 0.3%
11/18 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed. NOV 5.0 1.0
11/18 4:00 PM RPX Composite 28dy YoY SEP -- -2.7%
11/22 8:30 AM Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index OCT -- -58.0%
11/23 8:30 AM GDP QoQ (Annualized) 3Q S 2.4% 2.0%
11/23 8:30 AM GDP Price Index 3Q S 1.8% 2.3%
11/23 8:30 AM Core PCE QoQ 3Q S -- 0.8%
11/23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales OCT 4.36M 4.53M
11/23 10:00 AM Richmond Fed Manufact. Index NOV -- 5.0
11/23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales MoM OCT -3.8% 10.0%
11/24 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders OCT -1.5% 3.3%
11/24 8:30 AM Durables Ex Transportation OCT -- -0.8%
11/24 8:30 AM Personal Income OCT 0.4% -0.1%
11/24 8:30 AM Personal Spending OCT 0.5% 0.2%
11/24 8:30 AM PCE Core (YoY) OCT -- 1.2%
11/24 9:55 AM U. of Michigan Confidence NOV F -- --
11/24 10:00 AM House Price Index MoM SEP -- 0.4%
11/24 10:00 AM New Home Sales OCT 310K 307K
11/24 10:00 AM House Price Purchase Index QoQ 3Q -- 0.9%
Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Events Calendar


Date Time Fed Event
11/14 7:40 PM Fed's Lacker to Speak on Unemployment in Richmond
11/16 2:30 PM Senate Banking Committee Votes on Diamond Fed Nomination
11/16 7:15 PM Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy in Montgomery, Alabama
11/17 8:00 AM Fed's Rosengren Addresses Providence, R.I. Chamber of Comme
11/17 9:15 AM Fed's Bullard Speaks on Future of GSEs in St. Louis
11/18 1:00 PM Fed's Warsh Speaks on Panel in Chicago
11/18 1:30 PM Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Chicago
11/18 4:30 PM Fed's Plosser Speaks at Cato Institute in Washington
11/19 5:15 AM Bernanke Speaks at ECB Conference in Frankfurt
11/19 5:15 AM Bernanke, Trichet, Strauss-Kahn, Zhou Speak on Panel
11/22 1:30 PM Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in South Dakota
Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg

2010 Ally Financial Inc. 10 11/12/2010


See disclosure on last page
Ally Economics
U.S. Economic Research

International Economic Calendar

Europe Economic Calendar: Asia Economic Calendar:


CPIs from Eurozone, Italy and UK Bank of Korea Meeting and Japanese GDP
Date Country Release Period Previous Date Country Release Period Previous
11/14 UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY) NOV 2.9% 11/14 South Korea Export Price Index (YoY) OCT -0.4%
11/15 France Current Account (EURO) SEP -4.0B 11/15 Japan GDP Annualized 3Q P 1.5%
11/15 Italy Trade Balance (Total) (Euros) SEP -3262M 11/15 Japan GDP Deflator YoY 3Q P -1.7%
11/15 Eurozone Euro-Zone Trade Balance SEP -4.3B 11/15 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY OCT 8.6%
11/16 Eurozone EU 25 New Car Registrations OCT -9.6% 11/15 China Money Supply - M2 (YoY) OCT 19.0%
11/16 France Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 3Q P 0.2% 11/15 Japan Industrial Production YOY% SEP F 11.1%
11/16 Italy CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) OCT F 2.0% 11/15 Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) SEP F -0.9%
11/16 UK DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) SEP 8.3% 11/15 India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% OCT 8.6%
11/16 UK CPI (YoY) OCT 3.1% 11/16 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) SEP -0.2%
11/16 UK RPI (YoY) OCT 4.6% 11/16 Australia RBA Minutes 16-Nov -
11/16 Eurozone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) OCT F -- 11/16 South Korea South Korea 7-Day Repo Rate 17-Nov 2.25%
11/16 Germany ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) NOV -7.2 11/16 China Leading Economic Index SEP --
11/16 Belgium Trade Balance (Mln Euros) AUG 477.6M 11/16 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) OCT F 70.9%
11/17 Spain GDP (Constant SA) (QoQ) 3Q F -- 11/17 Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) SEP -0.1%
11/17 UK Bank of England Minutes Nov 0.0% 11/17 Australia Wage Cost Index YoY 3Q --
11/17 UK Claimant Count Rate OCT 4.5% 11/17 Japan Leading Index CI SEP F 98.9
11/17 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) SEP 7.7% 11/18 Australia Average Weekly Wages (YoY) AUG --
11/17 Eurozone Construction Output WDA YoY SEP -8.5% 11/19 Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) SEP -0.4%
11/18 UK Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) OCT 0.5% Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg

11/18 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) OCT 20.7B


11/19 Germany Producer Prices (YoY) OCT 3.9%
11/19 France Wages (QoQ) 3Q 0.4% Latin America Economic Calendar:
11/19 Italy Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) SEP 32.4% Central Bank Meetings in Chile and Columbia
11/19 Belgium Consumer Confidence NOV -2.0 Date Country Release Period Previous
Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg 11/15 Chile Copper Exports OCT 3,919
11/16 Brazil FGV CPI IPC-S Nov 0.7%
11/16 Chile Nominal Overnight Rate Target 16-Nov 2.8%
Canada Economic Calendar: 11/18 Chile Gross Domestic Product YoY 3Q 6.5%
Leading Indicators could rebound from Septembers decline 11/18 Chile Current Account 3Q 46.8
Date Country Release Period Previous 11/18 Argentina Consumer Confidence NOV 50.1
11/16 Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM SEP 2.0% 11/18 Brazil Tax Collections OCT 63419M
11/18 Canada Leading Indicators MoM OCT -0.1% 11/18 Columbia Industrial Production (YoY) SEP 4.4%
11/18 Canada Int'l Securities Transactions SEP 11.090B 11/18 Columbia Retail Sales (YoY) SEP 12.7%
11/18 Canada Wholesale Sales MoM SEP 1.2% 11/19 Columbia Overnight Lending Rate 19-Nov 3.0%
Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg
11/19 Argentina Economic Activity Indx YoY NSA SEP 8.5%
11/19 Argentina Industrial Production YoY NSA OCT 10.1%
Sources: Ally Economics, Bloomberg

2010 Ally Financial Inc. 11 11/12/2010


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U.S. Economic Research

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Ally Economics

Lee Stafford Tendayi Kapfidze, CFA Matthew Moore


Managing Director Senior Research Analyst Senior Economist
(704) 444-4798 (704) 444-4795 (646) 781-2631
Lee.Stafford@ally.com Tendayi.Kapfidze@ally.com Matthew.Moore@ally.com

Hiroki Gomi Minh Dang


Research Analyst Research Analyst
(646) 781-2611 (704) 444-4794
Hiroki.Gomi@ally.com Minh.Dang@ally.com

2010 Ally Financial Inc. 12 11/12/2010


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