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Nov 09, 2017

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Predictive Learning

© All Rights Reserved

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Predictive Learning

© All Rights Reserved

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Predictive Learning

Yann Le Cun

Facebook AI Research

Center for Data Science, NYU

Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, NYU

http://yann.lecun.com

1st Connectionist Summer School, CMU July 1986

Y LeCun

1st Connectionist Summer School, CMU July 1986

Y LeCun

Bartlett Mel

Yann LeCun

Stan Dehaene Mike Mozer

Richard Durbin Bart Selman

Gerry Tesauro

Andy Barto

Jordan Pollack

Dana Ballard

Mike Jordan

Jim Hendler

Dave Touretzky

Geoff Hinton

Y LeCun

Supervised Learning

dog, cars, and people

But will it recognize table, chairs, dogs, cars, and people it has

never seen before?

PLANE

CAR

CAR

Deep Learning = The Entire Machine is Trainable

Y LeCun

Feature Trainable

Extractor Classifier

Extractor Features Classifier

Features Features Features Classifier

Y LeCun

Deep Convolutional Nets for Object Recognition

1 to 10 billion connections, 10 million to 1 billion parameters, 8 to 20 layers.

Deep Learning = Learning Hierarchical Representations

Y LeCun

It's deep if it has more than one stage of non-linear feature transformation

Feature Feature Feature Classifier

Feature visualization of convolutional net trained on ImageNet from [Zeiler & Fergus 2013]

Very Deep ConvNet Architectures

Y LeCun

VGG

GoogLeNet

ResNet

ConvNet for Driving

Y LeCun

Image captioning, Semantic Segmentation with ConvNets

Y LeCun

[Farabet et al.

ICML 2011]

[Farabet et al.

PAMI 2013]

[Lebret, Pinheiro, Collobert 2015][Kulkarni 11][Mitchell 12][Vinyals 14][Mao 14][Karpathy 14][Donahue 14]...

Driving Cars with Convolutional Nets

Y LeCun

MobilEye

NVIDIA

DeepMask: ConvNet Locates and Recognizes Objects

Y LeCun

ConvNet produces object masks and categories

SharpMask++: Recognition Pipeline & Object Proposals

Y LeCun

https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.02135

Zagoruyko, Lerer, Lin, Pinheiro, Gross,

Chintala, Dollr

https://github.com/facebookresearc

h/deepmask

Image Recognition

Y LeCun

Image Recognition

Y LeCun

Image Recognition

Y LeCun

Image Recognition

Y LeCun

Image Recognition

Y LeCun

Image Recognition

Y LeCun

Results

Y LeCun

Y LeCun

Obstacles to AI

Y LeCun

Obstacles to Progress in AI

Physical world, digital world, people,.

They need to acquire some level of common sense

They need to learn a very large amount of background knowledge

Through observation and action

Machines need to perceive the state of the world

So as to make accurate predictions and planning

Machines need to update and remember estimates of the state of the world

Paying attention to important events. Remember relevant events

Machines neet to reason and plan

Predict which sequence of actions will lead to a desired state of the world

Perception + Predictive Model + Memory + Reasoning & Planning

What is Common Sense?

Y LeCun

too large/small

(winograd schema)

world works

Common Sense is the ability to fill in the blanks

Y LeCun

Infer the future from the past and present

Infer past events from the present state

Filling in occluded images

Fillling in missing segments in text, missing words in speech.

Predicting the consequences of our actions

Predicting the sequence of actions leading to a result

Predicting any part of the past, present or future percepts from whatever

information is available.

But really, thats what many people mean by unsupervised learning

The Necessity of Unsupervised Learning / Predictive Learning

Y LeCun

The number of samples required to train a large learning machine (for any

task) depends on the amount of information that we ask it to predict.

The more you ask of the machine, the larger it can be.

The brain has about 10^14 synapses and we only live for about 10^9

seconds. So we have a lot more parameters than data. This motivates the

idea that we must do a lot of unsupervised learning since the perceptual

input (including proprioception) is the only place we can get 10^5

dimensions of constraint per second.

Geoffrey Hinton (in his 2014 AMA on Reddit)

(but he has been saying that since the late 1970s)

How Much Information Does the Machine Need to Predict?

Y LeCun

The machine predicts a scalar

reward given once in a while.

A few bits for some samples

The machine predicts a category

or a few numbers for each input

Predicting human-supplied data

1010,000 bits per sample

The machine predicts any part of

its input for any observed part.

Predicts future frames in videos

Millions of bits per sample

(Yes, I know, this picture is slightly offensive to RL folks. But Ill make it up)

VizDoom Champion: Actor-Critic RL system from FAIR

Y LeCun

[Wu & Tian, submitted to ICLR 2017]

StarCraft: Brood War RL-based system for battle tactics

Y LeCun

[Usunier, Synnaeve, Lin, Chintala, submitted to ICLR 2017]

Suttons Dyna Architecture: try things in your head before acting

Y LeCun

[Rich Sutton, ACM SIGART 1991]

Y LeCun

Simulate the world (the plant) with an initial control sequence

Adjust the control sequence to optimize the objective through gradient descent

Backprop through time was invented by control theorists in the late 1950s

its sometimes called the adjoint state method

[Athans & Falb 1966, Bryson & Ho 1969]

Simulator Simulator Simulator Simulator

Y LeCun

The Architecture

Of an

Intelligent System

Y LeCun

AI System: Learning Agent + Immutable Objective

The agent acts on the world World

The agents tries to minimize the long-term

expected cost.

Percepts / Actions/

Observations Outputs

Agent

State

Objective

Cost

Y LeCun

The essence of intelligence is the ability to

predict

To plan ahead, we simulate the world World

The action taken minimizes the predicted cost

Agent Actions/

World Percepts

Outputs

Simulator

Predicted Inferred Action

Percepts World State Proposals Agent

Actor

Agent State

Actor State

Predicted Objective Cost

Critic Cost

What we need is Model-Based Reinforcement LearningY LeCun

To plan ahead, we must simulate the world, so as to minimizes the

predicted value of some objective function.

Agent

World World World World

Simulator Simulator Simulator Simulator

Perception

Y LeCun

Learning

Predictive Forward Models

Of the World

Learning Physics (PhysNet)

Y LeCun

ConvNet produces object masks that predict the trajectories of

falling blocks

Uses the Unreal game engine.

Learning Physics (PhysNet)

Y LeCun

ConvNet produces object masks that predict the trajectories of

falling blocks

Uses the Unreal game engine.

Learning Physics (PhysNet)

Y LeCun

ConvNet produces object masks that predict the trajectories of

falling blocks

Uses the Unreal game engine.

Y LeCun

Inferring the

State of the World from Text:

Entity RNN

Y LeCun

Augmenting Neural Nets with a Memory Module

The cortex only remember things for 20 seconds

We need a hippocampus (a separate memory module)

LSTM [Hochreiter 1997], registers

Memory networks [Weston et 2014] (FAIR), associative memory

Stacked-Augmented Recurrent Neural Net [Joulin & Mikolov 2014] (FAIR)

Neural Turing Machine [Graves 2014],

Differentiable Neural Computer [Graves 2016]

Recurrentnet memory

Differentiable Memory

Y LeCun

Or a soft hash table

Stores Key-Value pairs (Ki,Vi)

Values Vi

K Ti X

e

Ci= K Tj X

Coefficients Ci

e Softmax

j

Keys Ki

Y = Ci V i Dot Products

i

Input (Address) X

Memory/Stack-Augmented Recurrent Nets

Y LeCun

Stack-augmented RNN

[Sukhbataar, Szlam, Weston, Fergus NIPS 2015]

ArXiv:1503.08895]

Weakly-supervised MemNN:

discovers which memory location to use.

Y LeCun

16

Results on

Question Answering

Task

End-to-End Memory Network on bAbI tasks [Weston 2015]

Y LeCun

Entity Recurrent Neural Net

Y LeCun

Each module is a recurrent net with a memory

Each input event causes some of the memory cells to get updated

Tracking the World State with Recurrent Entity Networks, Henaff, Weston, Szlam,

Bordes, LeCun (submitted to ICLR2017 on OpenReview.net)

EntNet is the first model to solve all 20 bAbI tasks

Y LeCun

EntNet is the first model to solve all 20 bAbI tasks

Y LeCun

Y LeCun

Unsupervised Learning

Energy-Based Unsupervised Learning

Y LeCun

Low values on the data manifold

Higher values everywhere else

Y2

Y1

Capturing Dependencies Between Variables

with an Energy Function

Y LeCun

The energy surface is a contrast function that takes low values on the data

manifold, and higher values everywhere else

Special case: energy = negative log density

Example: the samples live in the manifold

Y 2=(Y 1 )2

Y1

Y2

Y LeCun

Energy Function: Takes low value on data manifold, higher values everywhere else

Push down on the energy of desired outputs. Push up on everything else.

But how do we choose where to push up?

Implausible futures

(high energy) Plausible futures

(low energy)

Learning the Energy Function

Y LeCun

Make the energy low on the samples

Make the energy higher everywhere else

Making the energy low on the samples is easy

But how do we make it higher everywhere else?

Seven Strategies to Shape the Energy Function

Y LeCun

1. build the machine so that the volume of low energy stuff is constant

PCA, K-means, GMM, square ICA

2. push down of the energy of data points, push up everywhere else

Max likelihood (needs tractable partition function)

3. push down of the energy of data points, push up on chosen locations

contrastive divergence, Ratio Matching, Noise Contrastive Estimation,

Minimum Probability Flow

4. minimize the gradient and maximize the curvature around data points

score matching

5. train a dynamical system so that the dynamics goes to the manifold

denoising auto-encoder

6. use a regularizer that limits the volume of space that has low energy

Sparse coding, sparse auto-encoder, PSD

7. if E(Y) = ||Y - G(Y)||^2, make G(Y) as "constant" as possible.

Contracting auto-encoder, saturating auto-encoder

#1: constant volume of low energy

Energy surface for PCA and K-means

Y LeCun

1. build the machine so that the volume of low energy stuff is constant

PCA, K-means, GMM, square ICA...

K-Means,

PCA

Z constrained to 1-of-K code

E (Y )=W T WY Y 2 E (Y )=min z i Y W i Z i2

#6. use a regularizer that limits

the volume of space that has low energy

Y LeCun

Y LeCun

Adversarial Training

The Hard Part: Prediction Under Uncertainty

Y LeCun

whole set of possible outputs (e.g. a manifold of outputs).

Percepts

Hidden State

Of the World

Energy-Based Unsupervised Learning

Y LeCun

Energy Function: Takes low value on data manifold, higher values everywhere else

Push down on the energy of desired outputs. Push up on everything else.

But how do we choose where to push up?

Y LeCun

Adversarial Training: A Trainable Objective Function

Energy-based view of adversarial training: generator picks points to push up

X F(X,Y) X

G(X,Z) F(X,Y)

X F(X,Y) X

Y Y Discriminator F: minimize

Dataset

T(X) F(X,Y)

Y LeCun

Adversarial Training: A Trainable Objective Function

Energy-based view of adversarial training: generator picks points to push up

X F(X,Y) X

G(X,Z) F(X,Y)

X F(X,Y) X

Y Y Discriminator F: minimize

Dataset

T(X) F(X,Y)

Y LeCun

Adversarial Training: A Trainable Objective Function

X F(X,Y) X

G(X,Z) F(X,Y)

X F(X,Y) X

Y Y Discriminator F: minimize

Dataset

T(X) F(X,Y)

DCGAN: reverse ConvNet maps random vectors to images

Y LeCun

[Radford, Metz, Chintala 2015]

Input: random numbers; output: bedrooms.

Navigating

the Manifold Y LeCun

DCGAN:

adversarial training

to generate

images.

Trained on Manga

characters

Interpolates

between characters

Face Algebra (in DCGAN space) Y LeCun

[Radford, Metz, Chintala 2015]

Y LeCun

Energy-Based GAN [Zhao, Mathieu, LeCun: arXiv:1609.03.126 ]

Loss functions

Y LeCun

EBGAN solutions are Nash Equilibria

Loss functions for Discriminator and Generator

Nash Equilibrium

Y LeCun

EBGAN in which D is a Ladder Network

Ladder Network: auto-encoder with skip connections [Rasmus et al 2015]

Permutation-invariant MNIST (fully connected nets)

10 L2 10

250 250

250 250

250 250

500 500

1000 1000

784 L2 784

Energy-Based GAN trained on ImageNet at 128x128 pixels

Y LeCun

Energy-Based GAN trained on ImageNet at 256x256 pixels

Y LeCun

Trained on dogs

Y LeCun

Video Prediction

(with adversarial training)

[Mathieu, Couprie, LeCun ICLR 2016]

arXiv:1511:05440

Y LeCun

Multi-Scale ConvNet for Video Prediction

Multi-scale ConvNet, without pooling

If trained with least square: blurry output

Predictive Unsupervised Learning

Y LeCun

Can we train machines to predict the future?

Some success with adversarial training

[Mathieu, Couprie, LeCun arXiv:1511:05440]

But we are far from a complete solution.

Video Prediction: predicting 5 frames

Y LeCun

Video Prediction: predicting 5 frames

Y LeCun

Video Prediction: predicting 50 frames

Y LeCun

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