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Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas

ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas

4 . Mercado de Divisas

© Juan Mascareñas
Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Primera versión: enero 1991 - Última versión: agosto 2012

- Introducción al tipo de cambio, 1
- El tipo de cambio, 6
- Operaciones al contado y a plazo, 8
- El riesgo de cambio, 10
- ¿De qué depende el tipo de cambio?, 12
- La teoría de la paridad del poder adquisitivo, 14
- La teoría de la paridad de los tipos de interés, 17
- Las hipótesis de Fisher, 22
- La teoría de las expectativas, 25
- Bibliografía, 26
- Enlaces de interés, 27
- Anexos, 28

Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas

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Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas
ISSN: 1988-1878
22. Mercado de Divisas

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Mercado de Divisas ! ! ! b+FDW!c-3$3+-&!(%!$)%3.+%413%!(%!WX.01"+%&"(1)5J%3!6+F'3$!e?/! .3$($&!)-3!0-&!1$#2-&!2-N 4%32+$0%&D!.2C.3%!&E!$!.+5$#!'#$!3$)+(%5/!&%F'3+($(!@!1$8-!2-&.%R!B.%!(%!0$&! . Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.+2+)$#.$!(%!4%32$(-!(%!0-&!)3+#2+)$0%&!-)%3$(-3%&!(%0!4%32$(-!(%!(+J+&$&!%#!>$@-!(%!WX.'3$!@!2+%33%!(%!$0F'#-&!(%!0-&!)3+#2+)$0%&!4%32$(-&!(%!(+J+&$&!(%0!4'#(-!2-#!3%0$2+*#!$!0$! B-3$!(%!I'%J$!K-3L!ib'%#.!%!+#.3$0%&!@!0-&!-)%3$(-3%&!7-.%0C6-#-/!6$H/!_#.3$#&$22+-#%&!$!0-!0$3F-!(%!0$&!Wd!B-3$&!(%0!(E$D!O#!&%).+.X/!YDXXX!+#&.3$JC&!(%!&+&.-%14)="1%1+"%2)>*2*+(./!%.%#&$!3%(!(%!-6+2+#$&!(%!2$41+-!7!*%2"16).'2+-#$0%&!@!0$&!)%3&-#$&!#%2%&+.#579<=:3# ]-&!)3+#2+)$0%&!)$3.%R! O'3-4-#%@k! ! ]-&!+#.G#!2-#%2.$#!(+J+&$&!)$3$!0-&! #%F-2+-&!-!)$3$!J+$8$3!$0!%H.2!.+%#%! '#$! )%2'0+$3+($(R! %0! 4+&4-! .+.%&!(%0!4%32$(-!(%!(+J+&$&!&-#!0$&!%4)3%&$&/!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!+#&.+4$&!&'4+#+&.$?/!0-&!1$#2-&! 3%$0+5$#! -)%3$2+-#%&! (%! $31+.34#56758934#:7.U!4+00-#%&!(%!*3(%#%&!(%!)$F-! A'%!(%1%#!&%3!0+A'+($($&!(+3%2.$(-&!%#.$&!M0..3-&!.+5$2+-#%&! %#! (+6%3%#.3$#8%3-/!&+%#(-!C&.-"(D! ! .%!%#.%0%2-4'#+2$2+*#!72-N 4-!%0!:m_bP/!7(+"*&8)9(.!V'-.3%! 2-4)3$(-3%&/! J%#(%(-3%&! @! 1$#2-&! )-3! 0-! A'%! 3%2+1%#! '#$!2-4+&+*#D!! ! ! P$10$!.%3$/!A'%!F$3$#.'N 2+-#$0%&/!0$&!)%3&-#$&!6E&+2$&/!0-&!1$#2-&/!0-&!1$#2-&!2%#.+.3$#&$22+-#%&! %#.):(.$1$#!'#+($&!$!:j+6.?D!]$&!%4)3%&$&/!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!+#&.(4*.)R[[jjjD24&6HD2-4kD! ! V-#20'@%#(-/! %0! 4%32$(-! (%! (+J+&$&! .$4%#.3$8%! A'%! )%34+.%4$&!(%!.W!ib'%#.$)5J%3! .'2+-#%&! (%!WXY!)$E&%&!%&.%&! 2%#.+)-! (%! 1+%#! A'%! &%! #%F-2+$! 7(+#%3-?! %&! 2-#! %0! A'%! &%! 3%$0+5$#! 0-&! )$F-&a! @! %0! )3%2+-! (%! %&.((.%! $&%F'3$3! A'%! 0$&! 2-."!*)<1&*..$10$!.3$#8%3$!&%!%#2$3F$#! (%! 3%$0+5$3! 0$&! .%! 1+%#! %&! %0) &"'() !*) +%.+%#($#!B$2+$!%0!4+&4-!)3%2+-D!]-&!-)%3$(-3%&!(%!4-#%($!%H.%32$41+$3-#!'#-&!.%34%(+$3+-&!%&.3%!0-&!&-2+-&D! ! 3 .%3#%.-3!4%(+-!(%!&'!%H.

%!%0!$S-!WXXX!%0!9VO!3%$0+5*!J$3+$&!2-4)3$&!(%!%'3-&!2-#!-18%.-3+($(%&! 4-#%.+0+($(D! .G#!-10+F$(-&!$!+#.-!$0!(*0$3a!%#!$0F'#$&!-2$&+-#%&!6'%!$@'($(-!)-3!0$!Z%&%3J$!b%(%3$0!(%!0-&!O&.3$0%&!(%! n3$#!93%.'$0! 0-&! 1$#2-&! 2%#.-!(%!%J+.%#%3!'#$!J$3+$2+*#!(%!0-&!.$(-&!"#+(-&!@!)-3!0-&!1$#2-&!2%#.%R!="1%1+"%2)>".3$0%&!(%!2$($!)$E&!7-!5-#$!4-#%.%4$! 6+#$#2+%3-! +#.%3#$2+-#$0! $2.3$0%&!#-!%&.W!ib'%#.$S$!@!T$)*#D!`!%#!&%).3$!%0!O'3-!%#!0-&! )3+4%3-&!4%&%&!(%!WX. Mercado de Divisas ! b+FD!e!\$.-33%&!F%4%0$&p!(%!I'%J$!K-3L/!%0!9VO!3%$0+5*!2-4)3$&!4$&+J$&!(%!(*0$3%&!$!2$41+-!(%!%'3-&D! 4 .3$#&6%3%#2+$!4%(+$#.%!:m_bP! ! O#!2'$#.-!(%!%J+.%#N .+)-&!(%!2$41+-!(%!6-34$!-3(%#$($!@!&%!(+&%S$!)$3$!%J+.%3J%#+3!7)%3-!0-!B$2%#!$!4%#'(-d?!%#!%0!4%32$(-!(%!(+J+N &$&D!! ! ! b+FD!d!.%33-3+&.3-0$3!%0!J$0-3!(%!&'!4-#%($!%#! %0! %H.%3+-3%&!$0!$.3$0!&'+5-!)$3$!%J+.$(-!.$3!%0!(%&)0-4%!(%0!(*0$3!0-&!(E$&!)-&.*$k! ! ]$! +#.3$0!O'3-)%-?/!&'%0%#!-)%3$3!%#!0-&!4%32$(-&!(%!(+J+&$&!2-4)3$#(-!-!J%#(+%#(-!&'!)3-N )+$!4-#%($!'!-.$!&-13%!0$&!o.$1+0+5$3!-!2-#.%#(%! %&! 4$#.-3!%8%4)0-/!('3$#.-&!(%!.-!$!0-&!1$#2-&!2%#.$3+$/!2-4-!%#!%0!2$&-!(%0!9$#2-! V%#.$3!0$!$)3%2+$2+*#!(%!&'!(+J+&$!2-#.-&+10%!+#. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.$3!%0! %H2%&-! (%! J-0$.$3!&'!(%)3%2+$2+*#!2-#!3%&)%2N .%3+-3! 7J%3! 6+F'3$! d?/! $'#A'%! %#! %0! &+&.$3+$&! 2-4)3$#! @! J%#(%#! 0$! 4-#%($! d !.$3$! %00-! 0$&! $'.%3J%#2+*#!(%0!9$#2-!V%#.!2-#!-18%.-!(%!%&.%3J%#2+*#! &%! (%#-4+#$! $0+"%) () 92(&%+"31) 6*$&"(1%!%! 2'$#(-! 0-! A'%! &%! )3%.3$&!(+J+&$&!2-#!%0!-18%.+%413%!(%!WXX.

El tono.%#%3!(%!2$3$!$!)3-J-2$3!'#$!23+&+&!6+#$#2+%3$!)'%(%!J%3&%!%#! \O!]<!\OcO:</!n'+00%34-R!?(. pues- to que la acusación mantiene que.'.-3+$0D!>$(3+(D!WXXX!.es Eva M. como consecuencia de acciones "intencionadas". un enfermo prácticamente tutelado por el Gobierno. mientras que Barclays habría manipulado el Libor. la City. puesto que existirían pruebas de prácticas similares con otros regímenes como Libia. Pese a contar con su base en Londres. Incluso. Birmania o Sudán… …… Standard Chartered asegura que el informe del DFS no recoge un "retrato fiel". el superintendente del DFS. Sin embargo.)2%)@2(-%2"A%+"31D!<0+$#5$!O(+. se había plantado la semilla de un banco capaz de aglutinar 6.+)-!(%!2$41+-!3%60%8%!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!(%!+#60$2+*#!@!-. es incluso superior al del caso contra HSBC. por tanto.+('413%! @! B$2+%#(-! A'%! %0! . el índice interbancario. El úl- timo en sumarse al club de los bandidos es el hasta ahora inmaculado Standard Chartered.*1!*.'$2+*#! %2-#*4+2-N6+#$#2+%3$! 3%('2+%#(-! 0$! +#2%3.3$0!(%!'#!)$E&!2'$0A'+%3$! %#!(%6%#&$!(%!&'!4-#%($!@!(%!0$&!+4)0+2$2+-#%&!A'%!)'%(%!. mientras parte de sus rivales sufren todavía el color rojo en sus cuentas. sin embargo. cuando un regulador norteamericano. Mercado de Divisas 0-2$0!2-#!-18%. deberá comparecer ante el regulador neoyorquino a final de agosto para defenderse y.800 millones de dólares en beneficios anuales.3$#&+2+*#!(%!'#!. pero.-!(%!&'$J+5$3!0$!. con permiso de Nueva York y Hong Kong. trafi- U !"#$!1'%#$!(%&23+)2+*#!(%!0$&!J%#. La gravedad de las acusaciones justi- fica la demanda de una explicación.fXN. para demostrar el argumento de la dirección del banco. El gran centro neu- rálgico mundial. para evitar que se le retire la licencia pa- ra operar en Wall Street que obtuvo en 1976. el foco de negocios se dirige a Asia en la que. relativamente nuevo. está convencido de que la entidad escondió 60.9 por ciento de las transacciones cum- plían con la normativa norteamericana.+%#%!0$!+#.3$&!J$3+$10%&!1G&+2$&!$!0$3F-!)0$5-D! ! ! Veraneo escandaloso en la City elEconomista.%&!A'%!. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22. trata de detener sin libro de instrucciones una sangría de escándalos de la que no se salvan ni entida- des que. en el siglo XIX.GF&DR!.fU 5 . Benjamín Lawsky. La acusación de "maquinaciones" con Irán para esquivar la normativa de san- ciones norteamericana ha noqueado al hasta ahora indemne Standard Chartered y amenaza con nuevas bajas. Todo cambió. mandó a la compañía que hablaba de principios como su "primera y última línea de defensa" al mismo rincón de la vergüenza al que en poco más de un mes han ido a parar gigantes como HSBC o Barclays y al que parece en- caminarse inexorablemente RBS. hacían de los "valores" el factor que definía su cultura.%3J%#2+*#!(%0!1$#2-!2%#. Algo huele a podrido en la industria financiera británica.$8$&!%!+#2-#J%#+%#. que asegura que el 99.000 intercambios monetarios para instituciones de Teherán que estaban sujetas a las sanciones econó- micas de EEUU.+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!-. el sistema financiero norteamericano habría quedado "vulnerable a terroristas.3-UD!]$!+(%$!)%3&%F'+($!%&! 4%8-3$3! 0$! &+. sobre todo. el Departamento de Servicios Financieros (DFS) del Estado de Nueva York. Millán 11/08/2012 Standard Chartered y HSBC están acusados de aplicar prácticas ilegales de blanqueo de dinero. un banco que hasta esta semana no era siquiera masivamente conocido por el británico medio. por lo pronto. hasta ahora.

! ! ! > " # 0.%34%(+$3+-D!I-!&%!-0J+(%!A'%!0$&!+#&..$10%2+(-&!$!&'! J%5!(%!(-&!6-34$&!(+6%3%#.3$#N 8%3$!%#!.'%&.M$#!%#!#-413%! (%!)$3.+.+2'0$3%&/!A'%!#%2%&+.%! '#! )3%2+-! )$3$! %0! +(. señores de la guerra y regímenes corruptos".'2+-#%&!A'%!-)%3$#!%#!0-&!4%32$N (-&!(%!(+J+&$&!#-!&-#!0-&!'&'$3+-&!6+#$0%&!&+#-!A'%!&-#!+#.!N!<?! ! @!%0!. y de esta manera evitar la legislación.+)-! (%! 2$41+-! %&! (-10%/! )'%&.%34+#$($!4-#%($!)-3!-. La batalla está servida y las investigaciones continúan.%34%(+$3+-/!)'%&.3-R! ! $?!=(.%)!"./U!%'3-&!)-3!.3-!.-4%4-&!2-4-!1$&%! 0$!'#+($(!4-#%. El método se habría desarrollado a partir de un sistema para ocultar la identidad del cliente iraní. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.$!)-&+10%! 2-#6'&+*#!@!($(-!A'%!0-&!)3%2+-&!-!.3$&!A'%!&+!B$N 10$4-&!(%!0$!)-&+2+*#!J%#(%(-3$!7%#!+#F0C&!(99*.-!A'%!C0!%&!%0!2-4)3$(-3a!4+%#.U^!%'3-&!)-3!2$($!(*0$3!-!":\O"Z?^D! 6 O#!%0!4%32$(-!(%!63'. necesario para los movimientos de dinero internacionales.+. Mercado de Divisas cantes de armas.+)-D!c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mani- pulando el código SWIFT. pero lo que ha quedado claro en este verano de crisis es que los adjetivos para proclamar "la semana más dramática de la banca británica" encuentran el superlativo con cada movimiento del regulador.! @! -.+2+)$#.3$?D!\%1+(-!$!%&.%/!)'(+C#(-&%!2-#&+(%3$3!$!0$! J%5!2-4)3$(-3%&!@!J%#(%(-3%&!7J%#(%#!&'!4-#%($!@!2-4)3$#!-.-!A'%!%0!)3%2+-!(%!'#$!(+J+&$!%&!%0!)3%2+-!(%!'#$!4-#%($! %H)3%&$($!%#!'#+($(%&!(%!-.%!%0!.+)-!2-4)3$(-3!7P2?!&%!2$02'0$!$!)$3.C34+#-&!(%!4-#%($!#$2+-#$0!7X/s.3$!(%1+(-!$!3$5-#%&! 2-4%32+$0%&!-!(%!-.%&!$&'4%#!'#$!)-&+2+*#!1+J$0%#.+)-!J%#(%(-3!7PJ?R! ! PJ!q!P1!7."%+"31!7<?R! ! P2!q!P1!7.!r!<?! ! ]-&!(-&!.!LF!(%!#$3$#8$&D 6 .!-!%$4?!#-&!+#(+2$3G!%0!)3%2+-!A'%!#-&!2-&N .+3G#!(-&!4-($0+($(%&!&%FM#!A'%!.D!]-&!(-&!)$3.+)-&!(%!2$41+-!&-#!6+8$(-&!)-3!0$&!+#&.'2+-#%&!6+#$#2+%N 3$&/!0$&!2-.%!(.$3G!2-4)3$30%!(+2B$!4-#%($!$0!+#.

40! 9 ]-&!)3%2+-&!2-4)3$(-3[J%#(%(-3!%&.3$&!(-&!(+J+&$&!2'$0%&A'+%3$!%#.+2$!+#.%!%#!4$#+6%&..-"()+.$3+$!#$N 2+-#$0! 2-#! 3%&)%2.*+&%/!A'%!2-#&+&..$. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.+0+5$N ($!)-3!%0!9VOs!2-#!3%&)%2.$&!&%3E$!2-4-!2-4)3$3!X/^f!LF!(%!#$3$#8$&!)-3!.%&D)B)k! ! O0!&"'()!*)+%.$!%&!0$!6-34$!'.3$#8%3$&f! 7.$4%#.)R[[jjjD4%F$1-0&$D2-4[(+J+&$&[6HA'-.+5$3!0$!4$@-3E$!(%! 0$&!(+J+&$&!2-#.%3+-3%&R! .40[+#(%HD%#DB./WW^.$3!%0!J$0-3!(%!'#$!'#+($(!4-#%. Mercado de Divisas 1?!=(.%!%#!2-.-! $! 2$($! '#$! (%! 0$&! 4-#%($&! %H.e!(%!8'#+-!(%!WX.0A%!(!%&!%0!2$02'0$(-!+#(+3%2.+)-&!(%!2$41+-! (%!-.+5$2+*#!(%!-./WXXf! Vcb[O"Z! 7O"ZVcb?D!!!! ! 7 O#!%0!4%32$(-!(%!63'.3$&!(-&!(+J+&$&D!\%1+(-!$!A'%!0$!)3G2.%!)3%2+-!%&.+0+5$3!'#!.%R!B.%!%#!6'#2+*#!(%!0-&!.U^! O"Z[":\! 7":\O"Z?! %0! .-4$(-&!$!'#$!B-3$!(+&.3$!%0!(*0$3/!)$3$!2$02'0$3!0$!2-..-!$0!%'3-D! ! ! ! Y P$10$!WD!V-.%$4%3+2$#$! %&! +F'$0! $! X/s.+5$2+*#!(%0!63$#2-! &'+5-!2-#!3%&)%2.-!$! 0$! (+J+&$! #-3.&[%H2B$#F%[%'3-6H3%6[B.+#.t!O"Z":\a!JC$&%!0$!&%F'#($!2-0'4#$!(%!0$!.+)-!(%!2$41+-!23'5$(-D!<&E/!)-3!%8%4)0-/!&+!0$!2-.G#!.! %'3-! )-3! 2$($! .-!$0!(*0$3!%&!+F'$0!$!X/YfYe!Vcb[":\!7":\Vcb?!@!0$!(%0!%'3-!2-#!3%&)%2.%)"1!".!%'3-D 8 B.3%! &E/!(%1%3%4-&!'.+5$2+-#%& !(%!0$&!)3+#2+)$0%&!(+J+&$&!%0!.+)-&! (%! 2$41+-! $#.$!(%!0$!(%0!)3%2+-!-6+2+$0!)3-)-32+-#$(-! )-3!%0!9VO/!)-3!0-!A'%!%#!$0F'#-&!2$&-&!%&.)R[[jjjD%21D%'[&.+)-! (%! 2$41+-! 23'5$(-! Vcb[O"Z! &%! 2$02'0$! (+J+(+%#(-! 0-&! (-&! .$10$!W?D!O&.G!6'%3$!(%!0$!B-3A'+00$!2-4)3$(-3[J%#(%(-3D 7 .%3#$2+-#$0!2-#&+&.W! ib'%#.

*+"%?!2-#! 3%&)%2.#+(%&.+(-!$!'#!&+&.%H.%#(3G!0'F$3!%#!'#!+#&.%!6'..!?!&-#!$2'%3(-&!(%!+#..%4$!(%!.$(-&! "#+(-&/!'#-!(%!0-&!(E$&!6'%3$!6+%&.%4$!>-#%.$&!(+J+&$&!(%1%3G!)3-('2+3&%! (%#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!2%#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%!0$!(+J+&$!<!.W!4%&%&!7J%3!.%D!.+2$D!]$!(+J+&$!<!&%!!*'.-!(%0!:+&.%32$41+-!(%!(+J+&$&!A'%!&%! 3%$0+5$#!$2.3-!(%!0$&!ds!B-3$&!&+F'+%#./!W/!e/!^!@!.%3+$0+5$2+*#!.+#'$3!B$F$4-&!'#$!)3%2+&+*#!&%4G#.3$!%0!%'3-!%0!.$&%!A'%!%#!$0F'#-!(%!0-&!(-&!)$E&%&!(%!0$&!4-#%($&!+4)0+2$($&!-!%#!0-&!O&.3$0!1+0$.-! $! -.$0!4$#%3$!A'%!B$@$!A'%! )$F$3!-6+2+$04%#.-/!0$&!(+J+&$&!&%!$)3%2+$#!-!(%)3%2+$#!2-#.+%#%!A'%!%&.$10%a!)-3!%8%4N )0-/!%#!%0!2-#.3$#&$22+*#.'$04%#.e!(%!8'0+-!(%!WX.%/!'#$!(+J+&$!<!&%! !*#%2B%! 7.-!$!9!72-#!1$#($!(%!60'2.%3$0!%#.&D6.%!4G&!74%#-&?!'#+($(%&!(%!<!)-3!2$($!'#+($(!(%!9D!.$3+-!O'3-)%-!__/!0$!2-3-#$!($#%&$!2-.$#.)R[[4$3L%.*#%2B%?! 2-#! 3%&)%2. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.-3!-.D2-4[k! ! .+)-! (%!2$41+-!6+8-!2-#!3%&)%2.-!2-#.%32%3!(E$D 8 .W!iB.'$2+*#!@[-!)$3+($(!$8'&.'3-! )3%(%.%.*+"%!7%'.X !:-#!(-&!(E$&!BG1+0%&D!O&!(%2+3/!&+!3%&'0.XD! • ]$&!-)%3$2+-#%&!$!'2%A(!79(.+)-&!(%!-)%3$2+-#%&R!$0!2-#.%&!(%!2-#.3$!)$3.$(-!@!$!)0$5-D! ! • ]$&!-)%3$2+-#%&!$0!+(1&%!(!7$'(&?!&-#!$2'%3(-&!(%!2$41+-!(%!'#$!(+J+&$!)-3!-.)(#A#-#/.%32$41+-!(%!%&.3$! 9/! 2'$#(-! %0! 9$#2-! %4+&-3! (%! 0$! 4-#%($! <! (%2+(%! 2$41+$3!%0!.%34+#$(-D!O0!+#.$#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%.%!)%3-!2'@$!4$.$3$!A'%!%&.$3!&-4%.3$!9!2'$#(-!B$@!A'%!)$F$3!4G&!74%#-&?!'#+($(%&!(%!<!)$3$!$(A'+3+3!'#$!(%!9D! .3%!$41$&!(+J+&$&!(%!.+5$!%#!3%0$2+*#!$0! %'3-!2-#!'#$!1$#($!(%!60'2.%34+#$(-R!.-!&%!)'%N ($!)3-('2+3/!%0!. Mercado de Divisas <#.$!B$13G!A'%!)$&$3!$0!.$10$!e?! ! ! P$10$!eD!P+)-&!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!+#(+3%2.3$!$! '#!.'$2+*#!(%0!uW/WUg?D! ! ! ! ? " # (/0'-+$(%0@#-.-B( ! ! O#!%0!4%32$(-!(%!(+J+&$&!&%!3%$0+5$#!(-&!.-!$!-.+#'$4%#.-3!.%&!$!0$!6%2B$!(%!.

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%3C&!(%!6-34$!(+3%2.+(-!(+3%2.D!Z%0$2+-#$!0$!.W!2-#!0$!.$/!%&!(%2+3/!&+!%0!.%!2$3$2.H$!(%0!(+#%3-D!]$!%J-0'2+*#!(%!0-&!2$)+.+)-!(%!2$41+-D! 12 <A'E!%H)3%&$(-!%#!&'!6-34$!(+3%2.-! (%0!.-D! e{D!J9*+&(!="$/*.3+1'2+*#!(%!%&-&!2$)+.-!(%0!.%-3E$&!A'%!3%N 0$2+-#$#!%0!.+)-!(%!2$41+-!@!%0!(%!+#.$0%&!+#J%3.%!$!.%!'#$!3%0$2+*#!%#.%3C&R! ! .+)-!(%!+#.3-! )$E&/!&%!(%1%!$!0$!(+6%3%#.+)-! )-&+.-#%!(%!4$#+6+%&.$&$!(%!+#60$2+*#!@!2-#!%0!.3$JC&!(%!'#$!&%3+%!(%!.+)-!(%!2$41+-! ! V-4%#5$3%4-&!&')-#+%#(-!A'%!0-&!4%32$(-&!6+#$#2+%3-&!+#.-!(%0!.+)-!(%!+#.+)-!(%!+#. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.%3+5$3!%0!%A'+0+13+-!3%&'0.%3C&!2-#!%0!.-&!-!&%3J+2+-&D!]$!3$5*#!)-3!0$!A'%!&%!2-4)3$#!-!&%!J%#(%#! 4G&!-!4%#-&!)3-('2.*+"(!(%!0-&!)3-('2.%-3E$&!&-13%!0$!6-34$2+*#!(%0!.-!A'%!%H+&.%3C&!#-4+#$0/!@!0-!2-#.-! (%0! E#(+2%! (%! +#60$2+*#! 0%! &%F'+3G! '#! $'N 4%#.%3C&D!]$!3%0$2+*#!%&! (%! .%3#$2+-#$0%&!&-#!%6+2+%#.+)-!(%!+#.+)-!(%!+#.3%!0$&!(+J%3&$&!.$D!<!0$3F-!)0$5-/!$!'#!$'4%#. Mercado de Divisas $?!O0)'.$0%&D! ! ! b+FDU!]$!3%0$2+*#!%#.-&!%#!%0!%H.+J-/! )'%&! $! '#! $'4%#.3$3+-D! d{D!J9*+&(!="$/*.+)-!(%!2$41+-!2-#!0$! .+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%&2+%#(%!70$!4-#%($!&%!$)3%2+$?/!@!J+2%J%3&$D! W{D!P%-3E$!(%!0$!'%."!%!)!*2)'(!*.)"1&*.%!3%.1%+"(1%2D!.{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

%!$!\$J+(!Z+2$3(-!@!(%&$33-00$($!)-&.%3+-34%#.+-#!+#!.$D! ! ! P$10$!dD!Z%0$2+-#%&!(%!)$3+($(! ! O#!0$!6+F'3$!U!&%!4'%&.3$#&$22+*#/!0$!(+6%3%#2+$2+*#!(%!0-&!)3-('2.-&!A'%!00%J$3E$#!6+#$04%#.e/!&%!1$&$!%#!0$!2*8)!*2)'.$&!(%! 1+%#%&!@!&%3J+2+-&!%#!$41-&!)$E&%&D!."+)Q(0. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.)DR!^WN^U! 14 .+J$!)-3A'%!&*0-!&%3G!JG0+($!2'$#(-!0-&!4%32$(-&!6+#$#2+%3-&!&%$#!%6+2+%#.$J! V$&&%0.%!)-3!n'&.%D!.#/()0'#-)G*$@ $&$L(## ! ! O&.%)%-$(20&%)(%!0$!..%-3E$&!$!0$!2-.-!A'%!3%0$2+-N #$!0$&!J$3+$2+-#%&!%#!%0!#+J%0!(%!)3%2+-&!(%!'#!)$E&!2-#!3%&)%2.!:+.$!J+&+*#!7(%#-4+#$($!9(.%I*!&%3G!%0!%#2$3F$(-!(%!%H)0-.-&!@!0$&!3%&.%!+F'$0%&/!@$!A'%!&+!#-!6'%&%!$&E!&%!)3-('2+3E$#!%H2%&-&!(%!(%4$#($!&-13%!0-&!1+%#%&! 4G&!1$3$.Y.%3+-3%&!$!.3+2. Mercado de Divisas U{D!>*(.+2$&/!0-!A'%!#-!-2'33%!(%1+(-!$!0$&!+4)%36%22+-#%&!(%0!4%32$N (-/!0-&!2-&.E%)!*)2%$!*G'*+&%&"#%$R!".<!%&!4'2B-!4G&!M.+5$2+*#!%#.$!.%-3E$/!%0!.-!$!0$&!J$3+$2+-#%&!B$1+($&!%#! .+0+5$!$0!.3$JC&!(%!&'&!3%0$2+-#%&!1G&+2$&/!0$&! 2'$0%&!&%3G#!$#$0+5$($&!$!)$3.+2$&!2%&.+#.%).+)-!(%!2$41+-!%#.+0/!)'%&.-(-&!0-&!4%32$(-&/!0-!A'%!+4)0+2$!A'%!%&!+#(+6%3%#.%-3E$&D! ! ! ! J " # .$&!(%!1+%#%&!&%$#!+(C#..'$.%#%3! %0!4+&4-!)3%2+-!%#!.%!$(A'+3+3!%0!1+%#!%#! '#!)$E&!'!-.%!$!A'%!0-&!)3%2+-&!&%!%0%J$3$#!@!$02$#5$&%#!'#!#+J%0!&+N 4+0$3D!K!2-4-!0-&!)3%2+-&!(%!2$($!)$E&!&%!%&.+3!(%0!%)EF3$6%!&+F'+%#.%3-!%&.-#&0('K-#)0#.'(+$($&!)-3!2$($!'#$!(%!0$&!.-"&.-&!)$E&%&!(%1%#!&%3!1G&+2$N 4%#.3$!'#!%8%4)0-!(%!0$!$)0+2$2+*#!(%!(+2B$&!.*2%&"#%!(%!0$!.$&!(%&$)$3%52$#D!! ! ! V-4-!$2$1$4-&!(%!J%3/!0-&!)3%2+-&!(%!0-&!1+%#%&!%#!0-&!(+&.-#/-'$ )-)#)0.$!A'%!C&.3%!%0!%'3-!@!%0!(*0$3/!(-#N (%!&%!)'%(%#!$)3%2+$3!0$&!J$3+$10%&!1G&+2$&!%&.$!.<?! %&!4'@!3%&.3-!0$(-/!%#!0$!.3+22+-#%&!$0!2-4%3N 2+-!+#.^?R!oPB%!.3%&%#..+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!2-4-!%&.$10$!d!&%!4'%&N .$(-/!3%0$2+-#G#(-0-&!(%!6-34$!(+3%2.+4$(-3!(%0! .%3#$2+-#$0D!.+)-!(%!2$41+-D!<&E/!&%FM#!%&..%-3E$/!(%1+($!+#+2+$04%#.3-!2'$0A'+%3$D!O0!%.$10%2%#!%#!&'!)3-)+$!4-#%($/!0$!+F'$0($(!(%!J$N 0-3!&%!)3-('2%!%#!6'#2+*#!(%0!.1%2D!.3$#!0$&!2+#2-!.%&!(%!.$J!7.+%#%!A'%!0-&!1+%#%&!&+4+0$3%&!(%1%#!.3%! (-&!4-#%($&!&%!%#2-#.$3!0$&!(+6%3%#2+$&!(%!)3%N 2+-&!B$&.-3!%00-/!0$!9(.e !V<::O]/!n'&.%&!@! 0$&!2%&.3$3G!%#!y%A'+0+13+-y!2'$#(-!&%!+F'$0%!%0!)3%2+-!(%!+(C#.%-3E$&!$#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!$0!2-#.*+"()B1"+(P!A'%!&-&.-3!-.B%!b-3%+F#!OH2B$#F%&pD!J+(1(.

'3-!(%0!.$&$&!(%!+#60$2+*#!%#!$41-&!)$E&%&!@! (%!$BE!(%3+J$!0$!#'%J$!3%0$2+*#!(%!+#.-!$0!(*0$3!6'%&%!(%!.'$0!(%0!%'3-!2-#!3%&)%2.+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%0!%'3-!2-#!3%&)%2.-!6'.w!%0!E#(+2%!(%!)3%2+-&!%#!0$!O'3-5-#$/!_.$(-&!"#+(-&!%&!W/U.+0+5$!%&!0$!A'%!%H)0+2$!0$!J$3+$2+*#!(%0!.+%4)-/!@!$!(+2B$!J$3+$2+*#!%&!$!0-!A'%!(%#-N 4+#$4-&! .$!A'%!#-&!%H)0+2$!0$!J$3+$2+*#!(%0!.+%4)-!-1.+)-&!(%!+#60$2+*#/!%#. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.%&!&-#!2$#.w[t/!$0!2-#&+(%3$3!A'%!2'$#(-!0$&!.%-3E$!%0!.+0+5$#(-!0$&!(-&!%H)3%&+-#%&!$#.$!.$&$! (%! +#60$2+*#! 7F?/! )-3! 0-! A'%! &+! $! 0$! %H)3%&+*#! $#./XW! O"Z[":\D! ! :+%#(-!_.$#.%3+-3! 0$! 2$02'0$4-&! )$3$! '#! 4-4%#.$!%&!0$!%H)3%&+*#!%H$2.+J$! (%!0$!.$&$&!(%!+#60$2+*#R! ! t!/$ = (g! – g$) ! OH)3%&+*#!A'%!&%!(%3+J$!(%!(%&)3%2+$3!Ft!H!.+J$4%#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!J%#(3G! ($(-!)-3!0$!3%0$2+*#!%#.w[t!+#(+2$!0$!J$3+$2+*#!(%0!.%3-!0-&!E#(+2%&!(%!)3%2+-&!J$3E$#!$!0-!0$3F-!(%0!.-/!4G&!)%A'%S-!$M#D! ! ! 15 .+J-/!(%1%3E$!-2'33+3!A'%!%0!.$3$!A'%!&%!2'4)0$!0$!.%#(3%4-&R! ! IP! x (1 + g!) = IP$ x (1 + g$) x S0(!/$) x (1 + t!/$) ! (-#(%!.+)-!(%!2$41+-!$2.$&$&!(%!+#60$N 2+*#!&-#!)%A'%S$&/!$41-&!2-4)-#%#.$&$&! (%! +#60$2+*#! %'3-)%$&! @! $4%3+2$#$/! 3%&)%2.3%!(-&!)$E&%&!70$!6-34$!3%0$.%#(3%4-&!A'%/!2-4-!J+N 4-&!%#!%0!%8%4)0-!$#.<?D!]$!%H)3%&+*#!A'%!B$1+.%3+-3/!&%FM#!0$!6-34$!$1&-0'.%!&%!'.3%!0-&!E#(+2%&!(%!)3%2+-&!(%!$41-&!)$E&%&R! ! IP! = IP$ x S0(!/$) ! S0(!/$) = IP! ÷ IP$ ! .%/! %H)3%&$($&! %#! .%!(%!0$!(+6%3%#2+$!%#!0$&!.%3+-3%&!@!(+J+(+%#(-!0$!&%F'#($!)-3!0$!)3+4%3$/! -1.%#(3%4-&R! ! (1 + g!) = (1 + g$) x (1 + t!/$) 1 + g! = 1 + g$ + t!/$ + g$ x t!/$ ! ! O&..+($(%&!4'@!+#6%3+-3%&!$!0$!'#+($(!@!&'!)3-N ('2.$(-&!"#+(-&! @!:X7w[t?!%0!.+)-!(%!2$41+-!7%&!(%2+3/!:.+)-!(%!2$41+-!%#!6'#2+*#!(%!0$&! J$3+$2+-#%&!%#!0-&!E#(+2%&!(%!)3%2+-&/!-!.-!$0!(*0$3/!.$!(%!%&.%32$41+-!(%!&'&!4-#%($&D!! ! Q%$4-&!'#!%8%4)0-R!:')-#F$4-&!A'%!%0!J$0-3!(%!'#$!B$41'3F'%&$!%#!O&)$S$!%&!(%!W/U^!w! @!%#!0-&!O&.-! )-3! '#-D!<B-3$!'.?/!&+%#(-!Fw!@! Ft! 0$&! .3-!)$E&/!%&!(%2+3/!3%0$2+-#$!0$&!.+)-! (%!2$41+-!%#!6'#2+*#!&-0$4%#. Mercado de Divisas %0!#+J%0!(%!)3%2+-&!(%!-.'$04%#.%-3E$!(%!0$!)$3+($(!(%0!)-(%3!$(N A'+&+.t!%0!E#(+2%!(%!)3%2+-&!(%!0-&!O&.7w[t?![!:X7w[t?!=!.!tD!.

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$!&+.$(-&!$!.'$0!%&!(%!X/sW!O"Z[":\!@!%0! J-0'4%#!(%!%'3-&!&%3G!(%!sWXDXXXD!:+#!%41$3F-/!0$!3%#.'$3&%!%#!X/Y!O"Z[":\!0$!2$#.070.%I*)!*)"1&*.$1+0+($(!(%!0-&!6-#(-&!A'%!&%!B$#! (%&)0$5$(-!B$2+$!I'%J$!K-3L!#-!&%3G!+(C#.+($(!(%!%'N 3-&!&%3G!4$@-3!A'%!0$!(%1+($R!.f/ddgD!! ! ]$!3%#.'$0/!(%!.000 ! +1.3-&!&%! $#+4$3G#!$!3%$0+5$3!%0!4+&4-!.000. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas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eDXXX![!sWXDXXX!=!./Xf!H!X/fU!O"Z[":\!q!sXWDUXX!wa! 0-!A'%!+4)0+2$!'#$!3%#./Xf!H!X/Y!O"Z[":\!q!Y^eDXXX!wa!0-!A'%!+4)0+2$! '#$!3%#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!B$!)-(+(-!J$3+$3!@!#-!&%3!%0!$2.3$! %0! (*0$3! B$&.000 $ Pagar los intereses (5%) y principal en ! -861.DXXXDXXX!t!H!.000 ! Invertir después de cambiar a $ -820.$3E$#!.%/!$&E! A'%!)$3$!A'%!$41$&!+#J%3&+-#%&!&%$#!+(C#.3$&! A'%! '#! (%)*&+.400 ! .$0!4$#%3$!A'%!&+!0-&!%'3-&! &%! B$#! $)3%2+$(-! 2-#.N &2B%!9$#L!%#!I'%J$!K-3L!)-3!+4)-3.+)-&!(%!+#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%!2-#.$! &+.070.000.400 ! ! `1&C3J%&%!A'%!%0!1%#%6+2+-!-1.-"(!2'$#(-!(%#.$4-! %#! %0! 4%32$(-!$!)0$5-D!Q%$4-&!'#!%8%4)0-!2-#!0-&!4+&4-&!($.+2$!$!0$!(%!0$!+#J%3&+*#!-3+F+#$3+$!%#!(*0$3%&!)-3N A'%!%&.+($(! (%! %'3-&! 3%N 2+1+($!6+#$04%#.egD!! ! >+%#.!q!NW/.070.$!#-!.$(-/! +#J%3.$?/!$'4%#.%&!%&.+3! 0-! 3%2+1+(-! $! 2$41+-! @/! &+4'0.&(/!A'%!2-#&+&.$! A'%!#-!&%!)3-('52$!#+#FM#!!1%#%6+2+-D!! 18 .%#+(-!)-3!%0!$31+.%3C&!&-#!4$@-3%&!%#!I'%J$!K-3L!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!%#!%'3-&! %&.'$2+*#!#-!('3$3G!4'2B-!(%1+(-!$0!%.'$3&%! %#! X/fU! O"Z[":\! 0$! 2$#.-"&.+)-&!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-D! ! :+!0-&!4%32$(-&!&-#!%6+2+%#.$#(-!%0!.!q!."*$6()!*)+%.3$8+&.-3!%8%4)0-/!'#!(%)*&+.000 $ Entregar los $ a cambio de los ! +877.1.$1+0+($(!(%0!sXWDUXX![!sWXDXXX!=!.%#.%! %#! %'3-&! %#! '#$! &'2'3&$0! (%0! 4+&4-! 1$#2-! %#! b3$#L6'3.$1+0+($(!(%1%3E$!B$1%3!&+(-!(%0!fg!)%3-!(%1+(-!$0!3+%&F-!(%!2$41+-!%&!(+6%3%#.-! %A'+J$0%#.$(-!2-+#2+(%#D! ! Flujos de caja ! Flujos de caja $ Endeudarse en 820.! )$F$!'#!UgD!V-4-!0-&!.+)-&!(%!+#.000 $ Prestar los dólares (7%) -1.-!%#!(*0$3%&!$!'#!$S-!(%!)0$5-!3%$0+5$(-!%#!'#$!&'2'3&$0!(%0!\%'.000 $ Vender 1. Mercado de Divisas .3$&!A'%!&+!&%!(%)3%2+$!2-#.000 ! Beneficio neto + 16.+)-!$!)0$5-!@!%0!(%!2-#.%3C&!(%0!fg/!4+%#N .$(-!@!(%)3%2+$#(-!%0!.3$!%0!(*0$3!B$&.DXXXDXXX!t!H!.000 $ a plazo 0 Recibir intereses y principal en $ + 1.%!&%3G!4%#-3!(%!0$!(%1+($R!.G!&'8%.%3C&! (%0!%'3-!70$!4-#%($!%#!0$!A'%!&%!%#(%'($#?!@!'#!(%&2%#&-!(%!0-&!(%0!(*0$3!70$!4-#%($!%#!0$! A'%!)3%&.3+$3&%!$! O'3-)$!@$!.*S $*$)+0-"*.+)-!$!)0$5-!B$&.+)-!(%!-)%3$2+*#!)3-J-2$#(-!'#!$05$!(%!0-&!.

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$&%!A'%!!6N#P#6O!!%#.3$!A'%!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!%#.$#.%D!O00-!%&!$&E!)-3A'%!&+!%0!(*0$3!&'1%/!&%!3%('2+3G#!0-&!1%#%6+2+-&!(%0!#%F-2+-!(%! 0$!+4)-3.3$.+)-&!(%!+#.-D!]$!%H)-&+2+*#!(%!0$!%4)3%&$!.%32$41+-!(%.%3+-34%#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-/!A'%!6+F'3$!%#!%0!2-#.3$.+)-! (%! 2$41+-! (%! '#$! (+J+&$!7%0!(*0$3/!)-3!%8%4)0-?!&%$!'.$!$!'#!)3%2+-! )3%(%. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas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y2-#!)3+4$y/!2-.-!$!)0$5-D!.%!'#!2-#.+5$#(-! y2-#!(%&2'%#.'%&.%#(3G!'#$!6-34$!(%!0E#%$!3%2.+0+5$#(-!'#!+(1&.-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!)%34$#%N 2%3G!2-#&.3$!%#!0$!6+F'3$!^D! ! ! b+FD^!O&A'%4$!(%!0-&!)$F-&!3%$0+5$(-&!$!.3$33%&.%R!Ug!=! fg!q!NWg?D! ! 0.-! )$3$!2-4)3$3!(*0$3%&!$0!)3%2+-!)3%6+8$(-D! ! \%!%&.$!4$#%3$!0$!2-41+#$2+*#!(%!0$!%H)-&+2+*#!$0!3+%&F-!&'1@$2%#.$0!@! 2-4-!&%!4'%&.3$.%3C&!(%!(-&!)$E&%&!(%1%!&%3! +F'$0!$!0$!.%&()%)'2%A(D!z&.-!A'%!%#!0$!6%2B$!(%!%H)+3$2+*#!%0!J$0-3!(%0!4+&4-!(%)%#(%3G!(%!0$!(+6%N 3%#2+$!%#.$($!)-3!%0!$'4%#.%!-10+F$!$!$41$&!)$3.3$. Mercado de Divisas V-#!0-!A'%!&%!(%4'%&.$2+*#?/!@!(%!&'!2-#.#<3RS9=S3#=#T.$2+*#!)%3-!(+2B$!3%('22+*#!&%3G!2-#.%/!A'%!)3-J+%#%!(%0!)3-N )+-!#%F-2+-!(%!0$!%4)3%&$!70$!+4)-3.%34+#$(-!7%0!&"'()!*)+%.-/!@!%0!.$&$!(%!$)3%2+$2+*#!-!(%)3%2+$2+*#!%&)%3$($!(%!0$!(+J+&$!2-#!3%0$2+*#!$!0$!4-#%($! #$2+-#$0D!:+!3%&'0.%F%3&%! (%! 0$&! J$3+$2+-#%&! (%0! .3%!%0!.$(-!%#!(+2B-!4-4%#.%+"31?D! :+! &%! .-!4G&!$0.-y!2'$#(-!6N#Q#6O!72-4-!%#!%0!2$&-!(%0!%8%4)0-!4-&.-!(%0!J$0-3!(%0!2-#N .%&!$! 3%$0+5$3!'#!+#.$! (%! '#$! %4)3%&$! %'3-)%$! +4)-3.+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%!2-#N .

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=#]6T^S7464#=8679S=# # ]$!B+)*.+)-! (%! +#.%!6$2.%3#$2+-#$0!%&.%#(3%4-&! 7.-&!#-4+#$0%&!.%3C&!#-4+#$0!76?!@!0$&!J$3+$2+-#%&!(%0!.-!A'%!3w!q!+w!N!Fw!2-4-!A'%!3t!q!+t!N!Ft/!@! ($(-!A'%/!&%FM#!%0!%6%2.+J$4%#.$0!(%0!+#J%3&-3!+#.+4+5$2+*#!(%!0$! '.3$! %0! %6%2.$!%H)3%&+*#!&%!)'%(%!&+4)0+6+2$3!$0!&')-#%3!.-!b+&B%3/!3w!q!3t!q!3a!+F'$0$#(-!$41$&!%H)3%&+-#%&!)-(3%4-&!2-#20'+3! ! A'%!0-&!(+6%3%#2+$0%&!(%!+#.%/! _N! @! _OD! V-#! %&.! r! 3?! -1.%!+F'$0%&R! ! i! .g$ ! O#!%&.%3#$2+-#$0!(%1%!&%3!+F'$0!$!0$3F-!)0$5-!%#N .-/! '#$! 2-#(+2+*#! (%! $31+.3$8%! (%0! 4%32$(-! 2-4-! -2'33E$!2-#!0$!.$#.1%+"(1%2! -! B+)*.3$JC&!(%!0-&!4%32$N (-&!A'%!B$2%#!)-&+10%!%&$!+F'$0($(D!<&E/!&+!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!(%!+#60$2+*#!(%!0-&!O&.3$8%!)'%(%! +#2-3)-3$3&%! )$3$! ($3! 0'F$3! $0! *9*+&() ="$/*.-!b+&B%3/!%&!(%N 2+3/!A'%!3w!q!3t!q!3/!-1.$(-&!"#+(-&! 2-#!3%&)%2.-!$!0$!O'3-5-#$!%&!(%0!Wg/!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!(%!0-&!J%#(+4+%#.i$ g .<!@!2-#!0$!)$3+($(!(%!0-&!.+)0+2$3!%&.%#%3! 0$! %H)3%&+*#! A'%! 4'%&..+2$4%#.g$ = ! ! 1 + i$ 1 + g$ ! O&.+0+($(! (%! 0-&! +#(+J+('-&/! #-! %&/! )-3! .!r!3?R! ! (i! .%#(3%4-&R! ! i! .$3G!6-34$($!)-3!(-&!2-4)-#%#.-! b+N &B%3R! ! i! .$/! A'%! +4)0+2$! A'%!0$!3%#.%3C&!#-4+#$0!(%1$!%0%J$3!%0!J$0-3!(%!&'!4-#%($!)$3$!)3-)-32+-#$3!$0! +#J%3&-3! '#! 1%#%6+2+-! A'%! 0%! 2-4)%#&%! (%0! 4%#-3! .$4-&!%&.%3C&D! .%&+&! $1+%3.-3! )-3! 7.$1+0+($(!.-3! %0! 2-#.+)-! (%!+#.$#.$&!(-&!%2'$2+-#%&!@!&')-#%4-&!A'%!&%!2'4)0%!%0!%6%2.$1+0+($(! 3%$0!(%!2$($!4-#%($!79N!@!9O?R! ! 1 + i! = (1 + r!) x (1 + g!) y 1 + i$ = (1 + r$) x (1 + g$) ! :+!$B-3$!3%&.-&! )-(%4-&! 2$02'0$3! 0$! 3%#.%3C&!@!(%!+#60$2+*#!&-#!)3G2.-.$1+0+($(!(%0!+#J%3&-3!+#.) "1&*.+)-!(%!2$41+-!7S-`2?D! ! :%FM#!b+&B%3/!0$!3%#.+)-!(%!2$41+-/!)%3-!&E!$!.%-3E$!#-!8'%F$!#+#FM#!)$)%0!(+3%2.3%!0-&!(+6%3%#.i$ = (1 + r) x (g! .i$) / (1+r) = (g! .$!.%&!)$E&%&D!P$41+C#!$!0$3F-!)0$5-/!(%1%3G!-2'33+3!A'%!$A'%0!)$E&!A'%!-63%52$! '#!4%#-3!.g$) ! (+J+(+%#(-!$41-&!4+%413-&!)-3!7.g$) ! (+J+(+%#(-!$B-3$!$41-&!4+%413-&!)-3!7.%&+&!2%33$($!%&!'#$!3%0$2+*#!(%!%A'+0+13+-!F%#%3$0!(%3+J$($!(%!0$!-).i$ = g! .! r! +t?! )-(3%4-&! -1.+)-!(%!+#. Mercado de Divisas "#+(-&! &%3G#/! 3%&)%2.-!%0!.%&R!%0!.!r!Ft?!@!3%2-3($#(-!A'%!$0!4'0. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.%3C&D!:+#!%41$3F-/!%0!$31+.$41+C#! (%1%3E$!&%3!%0!4+&4-D! ! .+)-&!(%!+#.-&! ($.3$3+-/! $A'%0! 23 .

%3C&! #-4+#$0%&!&%!(%1%!$!'#!$'4%#.+J-!@!(%0!*9*+&()="$/*.-!(%0!3+%&F-!(%!0$!%2-#-4E$!(%!'#!)$E&!(%.-(-!2$&-/!%#!'#!4'#(-!F0-1$0+5$(-!6+#$#2+%3$4%#.R! ! (i! .+)-&!(%!+#.-/! 0$! J$0+(%5! (%! 0$&! 2-#20'&+-#%&!(%)%#(%3G!(+3%2.%/! @/! )-3! .+J$!(%!+#N 60$2+*#D!O#!.+%#(-!(%!0$!)$3+($(!(%0!)-(%3!$(A'+&+.$!B+)*.3$#8%3-&!(%4$#(%#!'#$!4$@-3!.$4)-2-! %&.i$ t !/$ = ! 1 + i$ ! ! -!%#!&'!%H)3%&+*#!&+4)0+6+2$($R! ! ! t!/$ = i! .%!(%!0$!J$3+$2+*#!(%!0-&!.+10%!)%#&$3!A'%!0-&! (+6%3%#2+$0%&!&-13%!0-&!.%#(3%4-&R! ! i .-&! .g$) / (1 + g$) t!/$ = (g! .$10%&!%!+F'$0%&!%#!0-&! (+J%3&-&!)$E&%&D!O&!(+6E2+0!2-#.+)-&!(%!+#.G! 4'@! 20$3$D! ]$&! (+J+&$&! 2-#! $0.%3C&!3%$0/!-2'33+3G!8'&. Mercado de Divisas )$E&!2-#!'#!4$@-3!.+J$&!&-13%!0$!+#60$2+*#D!! ! ]-!A'%!@$!#-!%&.$#.%3C&!3%$0%&!&%$#!%&.$#!20$3-!%&!A'%!0-&!.+)-!(%!+#.$(-&!"#+(-&!@!0$!O'3-5-#$!%&!(%0!Wg/!%0!(*0$3!(%1%3E$!(%)3%N 2+$3&%!%#!'#!WgD! ! .$3!%&.-!(%!0$!.$4%#.+)-!(%!+#.3%!%&.%3C&!#-4+#$0!J%3G!(+&4+#'+3!%0!J$0-3!(%!&'!4-#%($/!2-#!0-!A'%! &%!+F'$0$3G!0$!3%#.$&$!(%!+#.%!2-#!0$!%J+(%#2+$!%4)E3+2$a!(%!B%2B-!&%!(%4'%&.$1+0+($(!.%3C&!#-4+#$0!.%3C&!3%$0%&!J+%#%!0+4+.+)-!(%!2$41+-!@!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!&-13%!%0!.%3C&!7+t!N!+w?!%#.-&!(-&!)$E&%&D!<&E/!&+!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!(%! .+%4)-D!<B-3$!1+%#/! 0$!2-#J%3F%#2+$!(%!0-&!.%3-!&+!%0!$'4%#.$0D!! ! ]$!3%0$2+*#!%#.%#.+%#%#! '#$! 20$3$!.+)-&!(%!+#.$0!4$#%3$! A'%!%0!$'4%#.i$) / (1 + i$) = (g! .-!3%$0!)$3$!2-4)%#&$3!%0!4$@-3!3+%&F-! +#23%4%#. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.+4$(-!0$!%H)%2.-!%#!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!%#.i$ ! (%!(-#(%R! ! i! = i$ + t!/$ ! ! 0a6:7R<6=#75Tb96<=# ]$!3%0$2+*#!(%!b+&B%3!%&!2-#&+&.-!0-!2-#.$0!(%0!+#J%3&-3!%#.G!.+)-&!(%!+#.3%!0-&!.+)-&!(%!+#.%3C&!3%$0%&!#-!(%1%3E$#!('3$3!4'2B-!.%#(%#2+$!$!(%)3%2+$3&%D!.$.$&$&! (%! +#60$2+*#! @! $0.$&$!(%!3%#(+4+%#.$.$&! .%!(%!0-!1+%#!A'%!&%!B$@$!%&.%!%&!6$2.$4%#.%&+&!)-3A'%!&%!3%A'+%3%!'#$!4%(+($!(%!0$!+#60$N 2+*#! %&)%3$($/! A'%! %&! $0F-! (+6E2+0! (%! -1&%3J$3! (+3%2.3%!O&.g$) / (1 + g$) ! !%!+F'$0$#(-!$41$&!%H)3%&+-#%&/!-1.3%!%0!.+)-&! #-4+#$0%&! .3$!A'%!0$! 4$@-3!)$3.%34+#$(-!B$3G!A'%!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&! %H.3$&.%3C&!#-4+#$0%&!(%)%#(%!(%!0$!J$3+$2+*#!(%!0$&! %H)%2.3$3+-!)-3N 24 .-.+)-&!(%!+#.$3.$($!)-3!%0!3+%&F-!)$E&a!(%!.

+3E$!%#! %0!6'. Mercado de Divisas A'%!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!$(A'+3+3G#!(+2B$!(+J+&$!2-#!-18%.H$D!:+!0-&!)$3.%!%#.+5$(-!%#!%0!4-4%#.3$3! %&.$!.3%F$3!%#!%0!4-4%#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!$0!2-#.%3-!2-4-!%&.g$ 2?!.-!X!)$3$!%#.3$!A'%!%0! ."!%!)!*)2($)&"'($)!*)"1&*.'$0+($(!%0!.'3-D! ! <&E/!)-3!%8%4)0-/!&+!%0!.+3!'#$!%J+(%#2+$!%4)E3+2$!2-#20'@%#.%3C&R!!+b!q! 1 = ! ! S 0 (!/$) 1 + i$ i! .-(-&!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!#$(+%!A'%33E$!J%#(%3!%'3-&!$!)0$5-!$!2$41+-!(%!(*0$3%&!)-3!0-! A'%!#-!6'#2+-#$3E$!%0!4%32$(-!(%!(+J+&$!$!)0$5-!O"Z[":\D! ! .D!V-4-!&%!)'%(%!-1&%3J$3/!%&.%-3E$/!.-@#0d/ 0+&-&$L-@ # # O&.+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%!2-#.-! 0-!B$3E$#!.%3C&!$!)0$5-!@!$0!2-#."!%!)!*)2($)&"'($)!*)+%.%&!.$3+($(!(%!0-&!.%!&-13%!'#$!3%0$2+*#!%&.$41+C#!2-#-2+($!2-4-!'%.$.+4-!6'%&%!4G&!$0.$(-!%&!(%! X/s!O"Z[":\!2-#!0-!A'%!J-0J%3E$#!$!2$41+$3!&'&!X/sU!%'3-&!)-3!(*0$3%&!@!3%2+1+3E$#!.+J$&!A'%!(+2B-&!)$3.-!NX/sU!O"Z[":\!)-3!%8%4)0-N!0-&!+#J%3N &-3%&!&%!0$#5$3E$#!$!J%#(%3!(*0$3%&!$!)0$5-!2-#!0-!A'%!3%2+1+3E$#!(%#.3%!0-&!.$N 10%!@!)3%(%2+10%!%#.-!(%!&$2$3!'#!1%#%6+2+-!(%!&'!4$@-3!3%#N (+4+%#.$.$(-!%&)%3$(-!)$3$!(%#.+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%!2-#.-!3%$0!0-!A'%!)3-J-2$3G!'#$!$)3%2+$2+*#!(%!0$!4+&4$D! ! O#!2-#20'&+*#/!#-!)$3%2%!%H+&.3%&! $#.'J+%3$#!&-13%!%0!.$(-!A'%!%H+&.g$ 1?!O6%2.i$ $?!.+)-&!(%!+#.3-!(%!'#!$S-!X/sU!O"Z! )-3!2$($!(*0$3/!4-4%#.%3+-3%&/! $&E! A'%! 3%2-3(%4-&! &'&! 2-#20'&+-#%&R! ! F (!/$) .+)-!(%!3+%&F-/!%0!.-"()%)'2%A(/!4'%&.-!%#!%0!A'%!&+!&'&!%H)%2.%3C&!#-4+#$0%&!@!0$&!(%!0-&!.+2+)$#.$(-!%&)%3$(-!)$3$!%0!4-4%#.+J$&!&%!2'4)0%#!%0!.$3+($(!)-(%3!$(A'+&+.%&+&!(%!0$!'%.$(-!4-&.%#.%!&'&!3+%&F-&!(%!2$41+-/!-!&+!6'%&%#!#%'.i$ g .-!.+)-&!(%! 2$41+-D! ! ! # c " # .3%!0$&!J$3+$2+-#%&!(%!0-&!.$#.%&!%#!0-&!4%32$(-&!(%! 2$41+-&!)'(+%3$#!2'13+3!)%36%2.!%&!+F'$0!$0! .-!b+&B%3R! = ! ! 1 + i$ 1 + g$ g! .$! .%-3E$! (%1%3%4-&! '.+)-!(%!2-#. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22.$4%#.+0+5$3! 0$&! .%!M0./X^WU! (*0$3%&/!%&!(%2+3/!^/WU!2%#.-!.+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!(%)%#(%3E$!M#+2$4%#.3$0%&!2-#!3%&N )%2.S 0 (!/$) i .$3$! (%4-&.+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!$!'#!$S-!(%1%3E$!(%!&%3!%0!4+&4-D!:+!%00-!#-! 6'%&%!$&E/!)-3!%8%4)0-/!&+!%&.%!(%!0$&!%H)%2N .+2+)$#.%&+&!&%!1$&$!%#!%0!+4)-3.-4$!(%!(%2+&+-#%&! 6+#$#2+%3$&!@!%#!0$!3%0$2+*#!%H+&.+)-&!(%!+#.-#&0('K-#)0#.3-!(%!'#!$S-!%&!(%!X/s! w[t/!%#!0$!$2.+J$&!8'%F$#!%#!0$!.$!B+N )*.+J-R!!t !/$ = ! 1 + g$ ! ! ! 25 .%!3$5-#$4+%#.%!)$)%0!A'%!0$&!%H)%2.+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!2-.+)-&!(%!+#.$J-&!(%!1%#%6+2+-!)-3!2$($!(*0$3D!.$.-!$!(+2B-!.3$($! %#!0$!B+)*.

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Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22. Mercado de Divisas Anexo I Nomenclatura de las principales divisas ARS – pesos argentinos AUD – dólares australianos BOB – bolívares bolivianos BRL – reales brasileños CAD – dólares canadienses CHF – francos suizos CLP – pesos chilenos CNY – yuanes chinos COP – pesos colombianos CZK – coronas checas DKK – coronas danesas EUR – euros GBP – libras esterlinas GTQ – quetzales guatemaltecos HKD – dólares de Hong Kong HUF – florines húngaros ILS – shéquels israelíes INR – rupias indias JPY – yenes japoneses MXN – pesos mexicanos (nuevos pesos) NOK – coronas noruegas NZD – dólares neozelandeses PEN – soles peruanos PLN – zlotys polacos PYG – guaraníes paraguayos RUB – rublos rusos SEK – coronas suecas SGD – dólares de Singapur TRY – liras turcas USD – dólares de los Estados Unidos UYP – pesos uruguayos VEB – bolívares venezolanos ZAR – rands sudafricanos 28 .

Porque esta activi- dad es además una profecía que se autocumple: al invertir fuera de Japón. que es casi 'un Estado dentro del Estado' para financiar a grandes empresas a tipos preferentes. como Turquía. y compra deuda brasileña que da más del 10%. Guido Mantega. En esas operaciones. Si encima el real se aprecia. pero no lo es menos que el 'carry trade' es sobre todo un invento japonés. se compró su piso en Barcelona contra- tando una hipoteca en yenes. Pero no en Japón. en la eurozona y. el ama de casa se estrella. Y lo es. el quinto apellido más común en Ja- pón. dema- siado laxa e inunda al mundo de dólares y euros y empuja al alza al real. tiene que re- solver sus propios problemas antes de echarle la culpa de sus problemas a las amas de casa de Japón. El mercado de divi- sas de particulares en Japón es mayor que el de todos los demás países del mun- do juntos. que les sube y les sube el precio del real. la ganancia es aún mayor para Watanabe. mi amigo Manolo P. Watanabe y sus amigas devalúan el yen. Watanabe no sólo invierte en Brasil. Otras veces compra derivados (activos cuyo precio de- pende de otros activos) en Brasil que utilizan como subya- cente (es decir. Aunque si sucede lo contrario. tiene alrededor de un cuarto de billón de euros en divisas. y al comprar reales aprecian esa di- visa. y la presidenta de ese país. con sus tipos de alto exageradamente altos. Pablo Pardo. Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878 22. en algunos otros mercados emergentes. Dilma Rousseff estén neuras perdi- dos con Watanabe. Dilma Rousseff ha venido a Estados Unidos a quejarse entre otras co- sas de la política monetaria de EEUU y de la UE que es. Puede parecer exótico eso de que un ama de casa invierta en divisa extranjera. No es de extrañar que ahora el ministro de Finanzas brasileño. como pasa a menudo. obviamente. en su opinión. También lo hace en EEUU. También es el nombre coloquial de las amas de casa niponas que invierten en mercados financieros fuera del país. según Wikipedia (dónde si no). En los noventa. Ahora. a Ben Bernanke o a Mario Draghi. Eso es lo que se llama 'carry trade': endeudarse en una divisa ba- rata y encima con intereses bajos (el yen) y comprar con intereses altos (el real). La señora Watanabe se endeuda en Japón a tipos cerca- nos al 0%. Es cier- to. 29 . Y no lo es menos que Brasil. con su peculiarísimo banco de desarrollo (el BNDES). 12-Abril-2012 Watanabe es. o su sis- tema financiero que todavía sigue sin desarrollarse plenamente. Mercado de Divisas Anexo II Amas de casa desesperadas (en el mercado de divisas) El Mundo. últimamente. No es algo nuevo. como pasó hace tres años. los activos de los que dependen su precio e interés) deuda de alto riesgo de Estados Unidos.