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**Kennewick, Washington 84041
**

Telephone: 509-591-0484

Cell: 509-947-5729

EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC www.eaest.com

TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM

TO: Fred Likkel, Whatcom Family Farmers

FROM: Kevin Lindsey, PhD, LHg, Alicia Candelaria

DATE: 12 October 2017

**SUBJECT: Long Term Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis of Nitrate Water Quality Data, Sumas-
**

Blaine Area, Whatcom County, Washington

1. INTRODUCTION

This report describes a Mann-Kendall linear regression analysis performed on long term

groundwater nitrate data from 39 groundwater wells in the Sumas-Blaine area of Whatcom

County. The objective of the proposed work is to evaluate existing groundwater nitrate data sets

and geospatial information to identify potential temporal and geospatial trends with respect to the

occurrence of groundwater nitrate in the Sumas-Blaine portion of the Nooksack River valley in

Whatcom County, Washington. This work was funded by Whatcom Family Farmers in its efforts

to better understand potential effects of dairy operations on groundwater nitrate occurrence.

The project area, well locations, and general land use, including currently or recently active

dairies, are shown on Figure 1. The nitrate data was downloaded from the Washington State

Department of Ecology (Ecology) Environmental Information Management (EIM) database.

Most of the wells selected for analysis were used in the Ecology Sumas-Blaine Aquifer Nitrate

Contamination Summary (Ecology, 2013). Several additional wells found in the EIM database

having multiple nitrate analyses are included in this analysis. Information about the wells

evaluated is listed in Table 1.

The primary water supply aquifer in the study area is the Sumas-Blaine aquifer. The Sumas-

Blaine aquifer is likely the most productive and widely used in the area (Lindsay et al., 2013),

being a common source for irrigation, single family domestic, and public water systems in the

Northwestern portion of the area. Average depth to groundwater ranges from less than 10 feet

below the ground surface (ft bgs) in the west to over 50 ft bgs to the east (Lindsay et al., 2013).

Regionally groundwater in the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in the study area tends to flow towards two

rivers, the Nooksack River and the Sumas River (Lindsay et al., 2013). Locally groundwater

flows toward the smaller tributary systems (Lindsay et al., 2013). The Sumas-Blaine aquifer

extends north into British Columbia and groundwater does flow south across the International

border toward the Nooksack River.

The primary rivers in the project area are the Nooksack and Sumas. The Nooksack River bisects

the study area. It flows west from the Cascade Mountain Range, east of the study area, to

Bellingham Bay, west of the study area. The Sumas River meanders along the eastern boundary

of the study area, and flows from the western low-lands of the Cascades north in British

Columbia. Land use in the study area consists primarily of agriculture, rural residences, and

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

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EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC 12 October 2017

**small communities (Figure 1), including Lynden in the center of the area, Everson and
**

Nooksack in the east, and Ferndale to the south. There are a number of dairy operations in the

study area as well. The approximate locations for these facilities are provided on Figure 1.

The 39 wells were selected to include the 25 wells sampled annually as part of the Sumas-Blain

Aquifer Nitrate Contamination Summary. The additional 14 wells were selected based on the

following criteria: their data records included part or all of the sample date range for the original

25 wells, their sample record had three or more sampling events, and they were professionally

judged to fill a spatial need such as existing between a well of high concertation and a well of

low concentration or were down gradient of a high concentration well or CAFO operation. All 39

wells were assumed to be screened in the Sumas-Blain aquifer.

2. ANALYSIS METHOD

The Mann-Kendall trend analysis is a test that evaluates whether a data series tends to have

increasing or decreasing values with time by comparing each later-measured value to all the

earlier measured values (Walpole et al., 2007; Singh et al., 2015a). The analysis assumes the data

does not conform to a normal random distribution (a bell curve), and that a measured data point

can be considered less than, equal to, or greater than another measured value in the time series

(Walpole et al., 2007). The Mann-Kendall analysis works well for environmental water quality

results where data distribution is generally not normal, but often skewed toward a natural

condition such as a background concentration. Due to the robustness to outliers and the

assumption of a non-normal distribution, the Mann-Kendall analysis has been used for trend

analysis of various types of environmental data (Hipel and Mcleod, 1994).

2.1 Mann-Kendall Analysis

The Mann-Kendall trend analysis seeks to either confirm or reject the presence of a statistically

significant trend. If the data exhibit a random normal distribution, then there is no statistically

significant trend (Walpole et al., 2007; Singh et al., 2015a). The Mann-Kendall Analysis uses

primary test statistics to determine whether there is a linear trend in the time series data, the

Kendall score statistic (S), and the normalized Kendall score statistic.

The Mann-Kendall method treats each sample as a separate event and duplicate samples are

treated as their own sample event. In most cases these duplicates result in an equal value

comparison and increase the likelihood of no statistically significant trend in samples where

duplicates are often collected. To avoid the false result of equal relationships and possibly

receiving a false result of no statistically significant trend, parent and duplicate sample

concentrations are averaged together to achieve a single concentration for a combined sampling

event.

The Kendall score, S, is computed by comparing the later-measured value to the previous values

and assigning either a -1,0, or 1, based on respectively, whether there in a decrease between the

values, the values are equal, or there is an increase between the values. S is then computed as a

summation of these assigned values. When S is a large positive number, there is an

increasing/positive trend in the data. When S is a large negative number there is a decreasing

trend in the data, and when the absolute S value is small there is no trend in the data (Walpole et

al., 2007). The maximum and minimum values of S depend on the number of measured data

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

EA Project No. 1557101

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EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC 12 October 2017

**points. Once the direction of the trend is determined the statistical significance of the trend is
**

determined by the p-value discussed below.

When a sample size is large or there are a large enough number of observations, the Mann-

Kendall analysis uses the normalized values of the Kendall score to determine if there is a

statistically significant increasing or decreasing trend. The same comparison applies as with the

Kendall score. If the Normalized S is a large negative number, the trend is negative. A large

positive Normalized S indicates an increasing trend. Once the direction and magnitude of the

trend are determined the critical value is used to determine the significance instead of the p-

value. Generally, a large sample size or number of observations is more than 20 observations.

The software used for this analysis considers more than 22 observations to be a large sample

size.

If the absolute values of S and Normalized S are significantly different from zero, then ordinary

least squares (OLS) trend line slope and intercept can be used to identify increasing or

decreasing trends in the data. The OLS trend line is determined by calculating the line which

minimizes the error (or distance) between every data point and the trend line (Walpole et al.,

2007).

The p-value for a data series is a measurement of normality in the data, and it provides a

measurement of statistical significance for a linear trend in the data (Singh et al., 2015a). The p-

value ranges from 0 to 1, and is a normalized function of the residual data measurements

deviation from the data set’s mean value (Walpole et al., 2007). A p-value equal to 1 indicates a

perfect normal distribution, and indicates that the Mann-Kendal method of analysis is not

appropriate, since it assumes a non-normal distribution (Walpole et al., 2007). A small p-value

near zero, indicates a non-normal distribution and a possible statistically significant trend.

Statistical significance depends on the level of the confidence interval selected for the analysis

(Walpole et al., 2007; Singh et al., 2015a). Where p-values are less than 0.05 a statistically

significant trend is interpreted and the null hypothesis. A p-value greater than 0.05 would be

considered failure to reject the null hypothesis and the absence of an increasing or decreasing

trend.

The critical value for statistical significance is based on the number of observations and the

confidence interval. The critical value for a given number of observations at the desired

confidence interval is determined by standardized, published, look-up tables available in most

statistical text books.

2.2 ProUCL 5.1

For this study, the software package ProUCL version 5.1.002 (ProUCL) was used. ProUCL is a

statistical data analysis software for environmental data containing both detects and non-detects.

The software was designed for use by the U.S Environmental Protection Agency and its

contractors, but has been made available for free to those who work and study in the

environmental fields (Singh et al., 2015a,b). Using ProUCL data analysis included the following

steps:

1. The time series data for each well was entered in to ProUCL.

2. The Mann-Kendal trend analysis was selected with a 95 percent confidence interval and a

least squares slope trend line.

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

EA Project No. 1557101

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EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC 12 October 2017

**3. ProUCL then calculated general statistics including the mean and standard deviation, the
**

values of S, normalized S, the variance of S (Var(S)), and the least squares trend line

slope and intercept (Singh et al., 2015a,b).

4. In addition, ProUCL was used to evaluate the p-value for the desired confidence interval

as another measurement to use in rejecting the null, and to determine if the use of the

Mann-Kendal approach is appropriate (Singh et al., 2015a,b). ProUCL calculates the p-

value based on the selected confidence interval. A 95% confidence interval was selected

for this analysis.

As previously mentioned, the Mann-Kendall analysis is robust to outliers meaning one individual

data point that spikes significantly above or below previous values will not result in false trend.

This robustness is in part due to the fact the analysis only compares a single data value to the

previous data value, and determines whether it is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. The

amount of time that passes between the two points is not a factor in the analysis; therefore, when

ProUCL 5.1 generates trend plots the x-axis is labeled “generated event” and all sampling points

appear equal distance for their respective sample well. Data plots for each well, and the results of

the statistical analyses are found in Appendix A. The results of the analyses are summarized in

Table 1.

2.3 Assumptions

Several assumptions were made prior to completing the Mann-Kendall analysis. These are

described in the following paragraphs.

**The Mann-Kendall method treats each sample as a separate event which means duplicate
**

samples would be treated as their own sample event, and in most cases result in an equal value

comparison and increase the likely hood of no statistically significant trend in locations where

duplicates are often collected. To avoid the false result of equal relationships and possibly

receiving a false result of no statistically significant trend, parent and duplicate sample

concentrations were averaged together to achieve a single concentration for the associated

sampling event.

**When performing a Mann-Kendall trend analysis non-detect results, samples where the analyte
**

was not detected above the method detection limit, can either be entered with the concentration

equal to the method detection limit, or left as a non-detect. Leaving the sample as a non-detect

means that the individual sample event is not included as part of the trend analysis. There are

pros and cons to both methods. Setting the concentration limit to the method detection limit

assumes that the concentration is never zero, thus it allows for the minimum presence of nitrate.

This assumption can lead to a result of a false trend when the method detection limit varies

between sampling events due to the change in laboratory method detections limits resulting from

the use of different labs or analytical methods over the sampling record. Due to the nature of the

sampling record downloaded from the DOE EIM and the presence of multiple laboratories,

methods, and method detection limits, reported non-detections were left as non-detects and not

used in the analysis.

Only three wells had non-detects present in their data records, wells AKG-726, TIMMMW1D,

and TIMMMW1S. Nitrate concentrations in all three wells were well below 10 mg/L for the

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

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EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC 12 October 2017

entire sampling record. Pro-UCL tracks the entire record, counts, and reports the number of non-

detects for each well analyzed.

**3. TEMPORAL TREND OBSERVATIONS
**

Data for the 39 wells evaluated for this effort was downloaded via the DOE EIM online database

portal. It was entered in ProUCL (Singh et al., 2015c) by uploading a spreadsheet of the data.

Basic evaluation results with respect to decreasing trends, increasing trends, no trends, and

spatial characteristics are summarized below. Generally, these records span from 2003 to 2016.

3.1 Decreasing Trends

Of the 39 wells analyzed, 17 have statistically significant decreasing trends (Table 1). With

respect to these 17 wells:

• Wells 3930H1(BCS953), 39307K2(BCS952), 40227C1(BCS969), 40315L1(BCS973),

and AKG-725 have average nitrate concentrations above 10mg/L. Their most recent

nitrate concentrations are also above 10 mg/L.

• Wells 40214P1(BCS962), 41333M1(BCS970), and AKG-724 have average

concentrations above the MCL, but their most recent sample results are below 10 mg/L.

• Wells 39212K2(BCS954), 39221H1(BCS956),40221J5(BCS961), 40223A3 (BCS958),

40226B1(BCS959), AKG-727, N41431Q1(ABO112), and TIMMMW1S have average

concentrations below 10 mg/L. The data record for TIMMMWIS ends in 2005.

Closely spaced wells displaying decreasing trends are found in the southwestern part of the

project area south of the Nooksack River along and west of Highway 539, an area west of

Highway 539 and north of the Nooksack River, and several areas north and east of the City of

Lynden (Figure 2). In addition, several wells displaying decreasing trends are close to wells with

no trend or an increasing trend, including in the east part of the City of Lynden.

3.2 Increasing Trends

Of the 39 wells analyzed, only 4 have statistically significant increasing trends (Table 1). With

respect to these 4 wells:

• One well, 39215J1(BCS955) has an increasing trend, but the average concentration and

most recent sampling result are below 10 mg/L.

• Two wells, 39203Q1 and 40316H1 also have increasing trends, but the records end in

2005 and their average concentrations were below the MCL at that time.

• The fourth well with an increasing trend, well 40332L1, has an average concentration

slightly above 10 mg/L; however, the data record is only available from 2003 to 2004.

As noted in the preceding bullets three of the wells with increasing trends have short data records

and have not been sampled recently. Only well 39215J1(BCS955) has a recent data record, from

2003 to 2016, with an increasing trend, but with nitrate concentrations below 10 mg/L. The areas

seeing increasing trends are widely separated by areas of decreasing or no trend (Figure 2).

Given that, while areas with increasing trends south of the Nooksack River have persisted

relatively unchanged through the data set (Figures 3, 4, and 5), the one found in the City of

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

EA Project No. 1557101

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EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC 12 October 2017

**Lynden as seen increasing nitrate concentrations over the period of record of the data we
**

analyzed.

3.3 No Trends

Of the 39 wells analyzed, 18 wells are found to have no statistically significant trend. Nitrate

concentrations in these wells fluctuate but never consistently increase or decrease (Table 1).

With respect to these wells:

• Eight wells, including wells 39211F1, 39212C1 (AGF141), 40211P1 (BCS957),

40222D1 (BCS963), 4033L1 (BCS967), AKG0409, TIMMMW1D have average nitrate

concentrations below 10 mg/L, with individual nitrate concentrations remaining below 10

mg/L for most of the sampling events. The record for TIMMMWID ends in 2005.

• Wells 39308F2, 39317H1,40305N3(BCS964), 413000(BCS971), and AGO409 have

average values above 10 mg/L, but with measured concentrations below 10 mg/L for the

most recent events. The data record for well 39308F2 ends in 2005.

• Wells 40307H1 and N0332M2 also have average values above 10 mg/L. However, the

records for these two wells ended in 2004 and 2005 respectively.

• Finally, wells 40226D2(BCS960), 40308P1(BCS965), and 40310F1(BCS968) have

average values and recent nitrate concentrations above 10 mg/L.

Areas characterized by no trend occur across the project area (Figure 2), commonly separating

areas displaying either increasing or decreasing trends. Given that, there are several locations

where wells without a discernable trend are found close to wells with decreasing trends.

3.4 Spatial-Temporal Distribution

Three maps were generated to show basic spatial-temporal changes in the distribution of the

groundwater nitrate data for which we did the trend analysis. These maps were constructed for

data collected in March 2004, 2010, and 2016. General observations from these maps include the

following:

• The 2004 groundwater nitrate map (Figure 3) shows two areas with nitrate

concentrations higher than 20 mg/L, one on either side of the Nooksack River in the

western part of the project area.

• Comparing the 2004 groundwater nitrate map (Figure 3) to the 2010 (Figure 4), and

2016 (Figure 5) groundwater nitrate maps the two areas with nitrate concentrations

above 20 mg/L in 2004 generally show decreasing concentrations with the apparent size

of the affected areas potentially decreasing.

• Comparing groundwater nitrate distributions in the northeastern part of the area, nitrate

concentrations are generally increasing, with the affected area potentially increasing in

size from 2004 (Figure 3) to 2010 (Figure 4) to 2016 (Figure 5).

• The areas of high concentration for all three selected years are separated by extensive

areas displaying groundwater nitrate concentrations less than 10 mg/L. These areas of

generally lower nitrate concentrations are relatively persistent, although there is some

apparent variation in size over time (Figures 3, 4, and 5).

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

EA Project No. 1557101

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EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC 12 October 2017

**Some general observations were also made with regards to the distribution of groundwater
**

nitrate and land use. There does not appear to be a correlation with dairy locations and high or

increasing nitrate trends, even where regional groundwater flow towards the Nooksack River is

considered. The scale of this study does not allow for any single source to be pinpointed, rather it

suggests that a range of nitrate producing activities including agriculture, dairy, rural

developments, and urban activities may all be contributing nitrate. There are some consistently

elevated nitrate levels; however, they also do not appear to all relate to single type of land use.

**5. SUMMARY AND FINDINGS
**

A Mann-Kendall regression analysis was performed on groundwater nitrate data for 39 wells in

the Sumas-Blaine area of Whatcom County. The analysis found that 17 wells have statistically

significant decreasing nitrate trends. Clustered, or closely spaced, wells displaying decreasing

trends are found in the southwestern part of the project area south of the Nooksack River along

and west of Highway 539, an area west of Highway 539 and north of the Nooksack River, and

several areas north and east of the City of Lynden. In addition, several wells displaying

decreasing trends are close to wells with no trend or an increasing trend, including in the east

part of the City of Lynden.

Eighteen wells are found to have no statistically significant trend. The data fluctuates but never

consistently increases or decreases. Areas characterized by no trend occur across the project area

(Figure 2), commonly separating the areas displaying either increasing or decreasing trends.

Several clusters of wells without a discernable trend are found close to wells with decreasing

trends. Wells with no trends, but generally above 10 mg/L, like north of Lynden and a few south

of the Nooksack River, could be considered wells of interest along with several wells in the same

areas with increasing trends consistently higher than 10 mg/L, the regulatory limit.

Only 4 wells have statistically significant increasing trends; however, only one of the wells has a

recent data record which shows nitrate concentrations below 10 mg/L. The areas with increasing

trends are separated by wide areas of decreasing or no trend well clusters (Figure 2). The areas

of elevated nitrate south of the Nooksack River have persisted through the data set. The area of

elevated nitrate found in the City of Lynden has seen increasing nitrate concentrations over the

period of record of the data analyzed. As discussed previously, these two areas may warrant

additional concern.

Combining the results of the long term trend analysis (Table 1, Figure 2, and Appendix A),

with land use shown on Figure 1, and with the nitrate concentration contours shown on Figure 3

through Figure 5, we do not draw a direct correlation between the distribution and trends of

groundwater nitrate and any specific land use. The results of this analysis indicate that a variety

of land uses, including changing land uses over time are impacting the distribution and trends of

nitrate in groundwater in Whatcom County. In addition, there appears to be some groundwater

nitrate effects originating north of the International Border.

The results of the analysis show relatively stable groundwater nitrate concentrations below 10

mg/l and decreasing groundwater nitrate concentrations are more prevalent than relatively stable

groundwater concentrations above 10 mg/L and increasing groundwater nitrate concentrations.

This is a positive sign with respect to groundwater contamination across the project area.

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

EA Project No. 1557101

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EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC 12 October 2017

**Regardless of the prevalence of stable wells below the standard and decreasing trends, there do
**

appear to be a several areas in the County that warrant additional concern with respect to

elevated and/or increasing groundwater nitrate concentrations.

6. REFERENCES

Ecology, 2013. Sumas-Blaine Aquifer Nitrate Contamination Summary. Washington Department

of Ecology Publication No. 12-03-026.

Hipel, K.W. and McLeod, A.I. 1994. Time Series Modeling of Water Resources and

Environmental Systems, Amsterdam: Elsevier. ISBN: 0-444-89270-2.

Lindsay, C. and C. Bandaragoda, 2013. Understanding WRIA 1 aquifers. In Bandaragoda, C., C.

Lindsay, J. Greenberg, and M. Dumas, editors. WRIA 1 Groundwater Data Assessment,

Whatcom County PUD #1, Whatcom County, WA. WRIA 1 Joint Board. Retrieved 17

April 2017, from http://wria1project.whatcomcounty.org/.

Singh, A. Ph.D., Singh, A.K., Ph.D. 1995a. ProUCL Version 5.1.002 Technical Guide,

Statistical Software for Environmental Applications for Data Sets with and without

Nondetect Observations. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. www.epa.gov. October.

Singh, A. Ph.D., Singh, A.K., PhD. 1995b. ProUCL Version 5.1.002 User Guide, Statistical

Software for Environmental Applications for Data Sets with and without Nondetect

Observations. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. www.epa.gov. October.

Singh, A.Ph.D., Singh, A.K. PhD. 1995c. ProUCL Version 5.1.002. U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency. www.epa.gov. October.

Walpole, R.E., Myers, H.R., Myers, S.L., Ye, K. 2007. Probability and Statistics for Engineers

and Scientist. Eighth Edition. Pearson Prentice Hall. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

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Figures

1 Project Area Location Map

2 Well Locations and Trends

3 March 2004 Nitrate Concentrations in Wells

4 March 2010 Nitrate Concentrations in Wells

5 March 2016 Nitrate Concentrations in Wells

Tables

**1 Well Details and Statistical Analysis Results Summary Sumas-Blaine Area,
**

Whatcom County, Washington

Attachment

A Data Analysis

**Whatcom County Technical Memorandum for Whatcom Family Farmers
**

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"

_ Increasing Nitrate Trend

40226B1 (BCS959)

40227C1 (BCS969) ` Decreasing

` "

)

Decreasing Nitrate Trend

Decreasing

40226D2 (BCS960)

!

)

"

)

" )

" )

" )

"

`

No Trend, Nitrate Generally

NT (a)

)

"

Below MCL (10 mg/L)

)

"

)

" )

" (

!

)

"

No Trend, Nitrate Generally

)

" )

" )

"

Above MCL (10 mg/L)

!

)

"

40332L1 )"

"

E Increasing Nitrate Trend, well

data set ends in 2005 or earlier

)!

"

E )

( " Increasing (2005)

)

40331L1 (BCS967) !

?

NT (b) )

"

Decreasing Nitrate Trend, well

)

" N40332M2 )

" )

"

! NT (a, 2005) )

"

40331P3 (BCS966)

NT (a)

E data set ends in 2005 or earlier

No Trend, well data set ends in

2005 or earlier

!

?

**No Trend, well data set ends in
**

E

39203Q1

)

"

2005 or earlier

)

" )

" !

?

Increasing (2005) !

)

" !

? 39212C1 (AGF141) 39307H1 (BCS953) )

"

39211F1 NT (a) Decreasing

` `

I

NT (b, 2005) )

" ("

! )

)

"

39212K2 (BCS954)

` 39307K2 (BCS952)

Decreasing

39308F2

NT (b)

Decreasing

0 0.75 1.5 3

)

" )

"

_ )

" ! Miles

39215J1 (BCS955) 39317H1 (BCS951)

Increasing NT (a)

§

¦

¨

5

`

)

"

)

" Whatcom County Nitrate

39221H1

) (BCS956)

" )

"

Decreasing

Figure 2. Well Locations and Trends

)

"

)

"

41333M1 (BCS970)

)"

" 16.1 ! (

! )

"

"

)

10

) (

!

!

413000 (BCS971)

)

"

)

" )

" 12.4 Project Area

AKG-727 )

"

NR ! )

"

!

AKG-726 ! !

!

( AGO409 N41431Q1 (ABO112)

!

AKG-724

!

NR 40303B1 (BCS972)

NR NR NR

11

)

" )

"

)

" )

"

)

" ) "

" ) )

"

)

" )

"

)

" )

"

)

" )

"

5

(

!

!

40305N3

) (BCS964)

" )

" )

"

)

" 6.31 (

!

! )

"

!

40307H1 40310F1 (BCS968)

)

" NR 12.7 )

"

)

" )

"

)

" )

"

!

40211P1 (BCS957) )

"

NR !

)

" 40308P1 (BCS965) )

" )

"

NR )

"

LEGEND

)

" )

" )

"

)

"

(

!

!

40316H1 )

"

9.39

)

" WA Dairies 2017

(

! !

(

!

TIMMMW1S 3

)

"

40315L1 (BCS973)

)

" !

( 4.5

12.6

!

**Approximate Nitrate Contours (mg/L)
**

)

" 40214P1 (BCS962)

10

)

"

10

(

!

!

40222D1 (BCS963) 18.3

5.67 (

!

! )

"

40223A3 (BCS958) 3

)

"

)

"

(

!

! 8.23

40221J5 (BCS961) 5

6.22 20 )

"

)

" )

"

5

40226B1 (BCS959)

3

!

(

!

15 "

) 10

40227C1 (BCS969) ! (

! )

"

23.7 !

(! )

" )

" )

"

40226D2 (BCS960) )

"

20

)

"

43.1

)

" )

"

March 2004 Nitrate Concentrations (mg/L)

)

"

)

"

)

"

)

"

Less than 3.0

)

"

(

!

5

3.0 to 4.99

)

"

10 )"

" )

(

!

)!

"(

!

40331L1 (BCS967)

)

" (

! !

6.35

! 40332L1

!

( )

" (

! 5.0 to 9.99

N40332M2 10.9 )

" )

"

)

" (

!

! 10.9 )

"

3

40331P3 (BCS966)

10.1 (

! 10 to 19.9

)

"

!

( 20 and greater

(

!

! Not Recorded (NR)

39203Q1 )

"

)

"

I

0.194 )

"

20

)

" (

!

!

!

( 39212C1 (AGF141) )

"

!

39211F1

5.27

10.6

)

"

( 39307H132.4(BCS953)

!

!

(

! 39308F2

!

0 0.75 1.5 3

!

)

"

!

( 39307K2 (BCS952) NR

!

)

" 39212K2 (BCS954) 19.4

4.95

)

"

Miles

)

"

39215J1 (BCS955)

(

!

(

!

!

**Whatcom County Nitrate
**

)

" 39317H1 (BCS951)

1.96

3 10.7

10

**Figure 3. March 2004 Nitrate
**

5

§

¦

¨

5

!

(

!

)

"

)

" Concentrations in Wells

39221H1 (BCS956)

5

)

" )

"

6.96

5

)

"

413000 (BCS971)

41333M1 (BCS970) 8.55

)"

"

14.7

(

!

! )

"

"

)

10

) (

!

!

Project Area

5

)

"

10

)

" )

"

AKG-727 )

" 5

NR ! )

"

!

AKG-726 ! !

( !

(

!

!

AKG-724

!

NR 40303B1 (BCS972) AGO409 N41431Q1 (ABO112)

NR 10.5

9.12 10.4

)

" 5 )

" )

"

)

" ) "

" )

)

" )

" )

"

)

" )

"

)

" )

"

)

" !

(

!

40305N3

) (BCS964)

" )

" )

"

)

" 12.8

3 (

!

!

! )

"

40307H1 40310F1 (BCS968)

)

" NR 16.5 )

"

)

" )

"

)

" )

"

(

!

3 40211P1 (BCS957) )

"

3.97 (

!

!

)

" )

" )

"

40308P1 (BCS965)

)

" 12.1 )

" )

"

LEGEND

)

" )

"

!

40316H1 )

"

NR

TIMMMW1S!

WA Dairies 2017

)

" TIMMMW1D !

(

NR

5

!

40315L1 (BCS973)

)

"

NR

!

( 3

)

" !

14.2

)

" )

" (

! 40214P1 (BCS962)

Approximate Nitrate Contours (mg/L)

!

40222D1 (BCS963) 14.9

7.36 (

! )

"

40223A3 (BCS958)

3

)

"

)

" 1.36

(

!

!

40221J5 (BCS961)

7.88

5

)

" )

"

)

"

(

!

! 40226B1 (BCS959)

4.7

10

40227C1 (BCS969) (

!

"

)

)

"

6.22 !

(

! )

" )

"

40226D2 (BCS960) )

" )

"

14.2

)

"

20

)

" )

"

)

"

March 2010 Nitrate Concentrations (mg/L)

)

"

3

)

"

)

" )

"

(

! Less than 3.0

)

" 5

)"

" ) (

! 3.0 to 4.99

)!

"(

!

)

" !

40331L1 (BCS967) ! 40332L1

5.35 N40332M2 NR

)

" )

" (

! 5.0 to 9.99

)

" (

!

! NR )

"

)

"

10

40331P3 (BCS966)

8.23 (

! 10 to 19.9

)

"

!

( 20 and greater

3

Not Recorded (NR)

20

!

39203Q1

!

)

"

NR

)

"

20

I

)

"

)

" (

!

!

39212C1 (AGF141) 39307H1 (BCS953)

)

"

!

39211F1

NR 12.1 23.7 !

)

"

!

(

(

!

!

39308F2

!

)

"

0 0.75 1.5 3

39307K2 (BCS952) NR

(

!

10

)

" 39212K2 (BCS954) 13

2.27

5

)

" )

" Miles

(

!

39215J1 (BCS955)

(

!

!

**Whatcom County Nitrate
**

)

" 39317H1 (BCS951)

2.8

7.48

§

¦

¨ Figure 4. March 2010 Nitrate

)

"

5

3 (

!

39221H1 (BCS956) )

"

)

" Concentrations in Wells

)

" 4.08

)

"

)"

" ) (

!

! 413000 (BCS971)

! )

" "

)

41333M1 (BCS970) NR Project Area

)

"

6.91

)

" )

" 3

AKG-727

5

NR !

)

" )

"

5

!

AKG-726 ! (

! !

(

!

AKG-724

!

NR 40303B1 (BCS972) N41431Q1 (ABO112)

NR 4.55

)

"

9.92 10

)

" )

"

)

" ) "

" )

)

" )

" )

"

)

" )

" )

"

20

)

" )

"

(

!

!

40305N3

) (BCS964)

" )

" )

"

)

" 9.05 !

40307H1

! (

! )

"

40310F1 (BCS968)

3 )

" NR 28.4 )

"

)

" )

"

)

" )

"

!

40211P1 (BCS957) )

"

NR !

)

" 40308P1 (BCS965) )

" )

"

NR )

"

)

" )

" )

"

LEGEND

)

" !

TIMMMW1D 40316H1 )

"

NR NR

WA Dairies 2017

)

" TIMMMW1S

!

(

!

!

)

" NR 40315L1 (BCS973) )

"

)

" (

!

!

11.4

40214P1 (BCS962)

)

" (

!

40222D1 (BCS963)

4.35

6.97 Approximate Nitrate Contours (mg/L)

(

! )

"

40223A3 (BCS958) )

"

)

" (

! 1.53 3

40221J5 (BCS961)

2.25 10 )

" )

"

)

" 5

(

!

! 40226B1 (BCS959)

6.65

10

40227C1 (BCS969)

"

)

(

!

! )

" )

"

14.4 (

!

!

)

"

40226D2 (BCS960) )

" )

"

13.2

)

"

3 )

"

20

)

" )

"

)

"

)

" March 2016 Nitrate Concentrations (mg/L)

)

" )

"

(

! Less than 3.0

)

"

)!

" )"

" ) (

! 3.0 to 4.99

(

!

)

" !

40331L1 (BCS967) ! 40332L1

)

"

5.51 N40332M2

NR

NR

)

" )

" )

"

(

! 5.0 to 9.99

(

!

!

)

"

40331P3 (BCS966)

7.99

(

! 10 to 19.9

)

"

20 and greater

10 !

(

39203Q1

!

)

" Not Recorded (NR)

20

!

NR )

" )

"

I

(

!

!

39212C1 (AGF141)

)

" ! )

"

39211F1

9.2 39307H1 (BCS953) !

NR !

(

)

" 24 (

!

!

!

39307K2 (BCS952) 39308F2

)

"

0 0.75 1.5 3

(

!

)

" 39212K2 (BCS954) NR 7.53

2.13

)

" )

" Miles

5

(

!

39215J1 (BCS955) )

" (

!

!

39317H1 (BCS951)

2.79

6.99 Whatcom County Nitrate

Figure 5. March 2016 Nitrate

)

"

§

¦

¨

5

3 Concentrations in Wells

(

!

39221H1 (BCS956) )

"

5

) 2.86

" )

"

)

"

This page intentionally left blank

Tables

Table 1. Well Details and Statistical Analysis Results Summary

Summas-Blaine Area, Whatcom County, Washington

**Range of Nitrate Concentrations
**

Average Nitrate

Concentration (ppm Minimum (ppm Maximum (ppm Statistically Significant

Well ID Study ID Record Date Range or mg/L) or mg/L) or mg/L) Nitrate Trend Comments1

39203Q1 39203Q1 03/17/2003 - 01/13/2005 2.14 0.19 4.51 Increasing Trend Increasing trend, but below standard for enitre record. Record ends in 2005.

39211F1 39211F1 03/17/2003 - 03/02/2005 3.35 0.11 6.31 No Trend Below standard for entire record.

39212C1 AGF141 03/17/2003 - 03/23/2016 9.00 6.75 12.1 No Trend Flucutates above and below the standard.

39212K2 BCS954 03/17/2003 - 03/23/2016 3.20 1.13 6.55 Decreasing Trend Below standard for entire record.

39215J1 BCS955 03/17/2003 - 03/23/2016 2.67 1.60 4.35 Increasing Trend Increasing trend, but below standard for entire record.

39221H1 BCS956 03/17/2003 - 03/23/2016 6.26 2.37 10.8 Decreasing Trend Only above standard for the 03/17/2003 sampling event. Below standard since May 2003.

39307H1 BCS953 03/17/2003 - 03/23/2016 29.35 16.6 37.4 Decreasing Trend Above standard, but decreasing trend. Above standard for entire record.

39307K2 BCS952 03/17/2003 - 03/08/2012 18.64 11.2 28.7 Decreasing Trend Above standard, but decreasing trend. Above standard for entire record.

39308F2 39308F2 03/18/2003 - 03/23/2016 13.73 7.53 16.3 No Trend Most recent sampling event below standard. Below standard since 2005.

39317H1 BCS951 03/18/2003 - 03/23/2016 10.40 0.28 22.1 No Trend Most recent sampling event below standard. Below standard since 2009.

40211P1 BCS957 03/19/2003 - 03/22/2016 3.81 0.96 7.81 No Trend Below standard for entire record.

40214P1 BCS962 03/19/2003 - 03/21/2016 17.28 2.12 25.3 Decreasing Trend Decreasing trend, and most recent sampling event below standard. Fluctuates above and below the standard.

40221J5 BCS961 03/19/2003 - 03/21/2016 7.00 1.82 12.8 Decreasing Trend Below standard since May 2003.

40222D1 BCS963 03/19/2003 - 03/21/2016 4.53 1.60 9.77 No Trend Below standard for entire record.

40223A3 BCS958 03/19/2003 - 03/21/2016 6.55 1.36 12.7 Decreasing Trend Only above standard for the 03/19/2003 sampling event. Below standard since May 2003.

40226B1 BCS959 03/18/2003 - 03/21/2016 8.72 4.03 15.0 Decreasing Trend Below standard since 2005.

40226D2 BCS960 03/18/2003 - 03/21/2016 21.83 8.37 43.1 No Trend Watch for trend development. Most recent event above standard.

40227C1 BCS969 09/18/2003 - 03/21/2016 15.87 4.42 36.5 Decreasing Trend Above standard, but decreasing. Fluctuates above and below the standard.

40303B1 BCS972 03/19/2003 - 03/22/2016 10.49 7.80 17.8 Decreasing Trend Decreasing trend. Fluctuates near the standard.

40305N3 BCS964 03/19/2003 - 03/22/2016 10.39 2.30 24.1 No Trend Most recent sampling event below standard. Below the standard since 2010.

40307H1 40307H1 03/19/2003 - 01/21/2004 17.02 13.3 20.2 No Trend Above standard for entire record, but reccord ends in 2004.

40308P1 BCS965 05/14/2003 - 03/17/2015 12.67 5.83 21.7 No Trend

Watch for trend development. Most recent event above standard. Large fluctuations both above and below the standard.

40310F1 BCS968 03/19/2003 - 03/22/2016 14.51 10.1 28.4 No Trend Watch for trend development. Above standard for entire record.

40315L1 BCS973 03/20/2003 - 03/24/2016 12.89 9.83 15.6 Decreasing Trend Above standard, but decreasing trend. Above standard for entire record.

40316H1 40316H1 03/20/2003 - 03/03/2005 8.16 3.44 11.3 Increasing Trend Increasing trend, but reccord ends in 2005. Above standard from 2004-2005.

40331L1 BCS967 03/18/2003 - 03/24/2016 6.50 2.69 9.92 No Trend Below standard for entire record.

40331P3 BCS966 03/18/2003 - 03/24/2016 10.07 4.21 23.2 No Trend Below standard since 2009.

40332L1 40332L1 03/18/2003 - 09/16/2004 11.53 9.53 13.6 Increasing Trend Increasing trend, but reccord ends in 2004. Above standard from 2003-2004

413000 BCS971 03/20/2003 - 03/22/2013 13.88 7.52 20.5 No Trend Below standard since 2009.

41333M1 BCS970 03/20/2003 - 03/22/2016 13.56 6.91 33.9 Decreasing Trend Decreasing trend, and below standard since 2013.

AGO409 AGO409 04/01/2009 - 03/19/2013 10.46 8.10 13.7 No Trend Below standard since 2012.

AKG-724 AKG-724 09/21/2004 - 03/07/2011 12.79 2.42 27.8 Decreasing Trend

Decreasing trend, and most recent sampling event below standard. Large fluctuations above and below the standard.

AKG-725 AKG-725 09/20/2004 - 03/07/2011 17.25 6.42 35.5 Decreasing Trend Above standard, but decreasing trend. Large fluctuations above and below the standard.

AKG-726 AKG-726 10/19/2004 - 06/16/2009 0.04 Not Detected 0.33 No Trend Below standard for entire record. Record contains non-detects.

AKG-727 AKG-727 09/20/2004 - 03/07/2011 8.94 0.54 22.8 Decrceasing Trend Large fluctuations above and below the standard. Majority of event below the standard.

N40332M2 N40332M2 03/21/1997 - 03/02/2005 15.38 10.0 32.3 No Trend Above standard, reccord ends in 2005.

N41431Q1 ABO112 02/18/1997 - 03/22/2016 9.41 4.55 13.8 Decreasing Trend Below standard since 2012.

TIMMMW1D TIMMMW1D 07/15/2003 - 03/02/2005 0.02 Not Detected 0.02 No Trend Below standard for entire record. Record contains non-detects.

TIMMMW1S TIMMMW1S 07/15/2003 - 03/02/2005 0.72 Not Detected 4.50 Decreasomg Trend Below standard for entire record. Record contains non-detects.

Notes:

1

The "standard refered to in the comments is the maximum contamination limit (MCL) for nitrate in drinking water, which is equal to 10 ppm (milligrams per liter).

Bold = above the MCL for nitrate.

ppm = parts per million

mg/L = milligrams per liter

**Whatcom County, Washington Technical Memorandum for Whatom Family Farmers
**

This page intentionally left blank

Attachment A

Data Analysis

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39203q1

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 13

Number Values Reported (n) 13

Minimum 0.194

Maximum 4.51

Mean 2.141

Geometric Mean 1.483

Median 1.92

Standard Deviation 1.584

Coefficient of Variation 0.74

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 40

Tabulated p-value 0.007

Standard Deviation of S 16.39

Standardized Value of S 2.379

Approximate p-value 0.00867

**Statistically significant evidence of an increasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 1 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39211f1

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 13

Number Values Reported (n) 13

Minimum 0.106

Maximum 6.285

Mean 3.346

Geometric Mean 2.305

Median 3.29

Standard Deviation 2.017

Coefficient of Variation 0.603

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 0

Tabulated p-value 0.524

Standard Deviation of S 16.39

Standardized Value of S N/A

Approximate p-value N/A

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 2 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39212c1 (agf141)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 6.75

Maximum 12.1

Mean 9.001

Geometric Mean 8.9

Median 8.9

Standard Deviation 1.399

Coefficient of Variation 0.155

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 47

Tabulated p-value 0.088

Standard Deviation of S 33.1

Standardized Value of S 1.39

Approximate p-value 0.0823

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 3 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39212k2 (bcs954)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 22

Number Values Reported (n) 22

Minimum 1.13

Maximum 6.36

Mean 3.199

Geometric Mean 2.863

Median 3.035

Standard Deviation 1.515

Coefficient of Variation 0.474

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -92

Tabulated p-value 0.004

Standard Deviation of S 35.45

Standardized Value of S -2.567

Approximate p-value 0.00513

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 4 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39215j1 (bcs955)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 20

Number Values Reported (n) 20

Minimum 1.6

Maximum 4.35

Mean 2.667

Geometric Mean 2.607

Median 2.64

Standard Deviation 0.601

Coefficient of Variation 0.225

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 60

Tabulated p-value 0.027

Standard Deviation of S 30.82

Standardized Value of S 1.914

Approximate p-value 0.0278

**Statistically significant evidence of an increasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 5 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39221h1 (bcs956)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 20

Number Values Reported (n) 20

Minimum 2.37

Maximum 10.8

Mean 6.258

Geometric Mean 5.697

Median 6.74

Standard Deviation 2.539

Coefficient of Variation 0.406

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -132

Tabulated p-value 0

Standard Deviation of S 30.82

Standardized Value of S -4.25

Approximate p-value 1.0679E-5

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 6 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39307h1 (bcs953)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 16.6

Maximum 37.4

Mean 29.35

Geometric Mean 28.79

Median 32

Standard Deviation 5.6

Coefficient of Variation 0.191

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -106

Tabulated p-value 0.001

Standard Deviation of S 33.09

Standardized Value of S -3.174

Approximate p-value 7.5288E-4

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 7 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39307k2 (bcs952)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 17

Number Values Reported (n) 17

Minimum 11.2

Maximum 28.7

Mean 18.64

Geometric Mean 18.2

Median 19.4

Standard Deviation 4.132

Coefficient of Variation 0.222

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -65

Tabulated p-value 0.004

Standard Deviation of S 24.26

Standardized Value of S -2.639

Approximate p-value 0.00416

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 8 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39308f2

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 7

Number Values Reported (n) 7

Minimum 7.53

Maximum 16.3

Mean 13.73

Geometric Mean 13.38

Median 14.5

Standard Deviation 2.943

Coefficient of Variation 0.214

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -4

Tabulated p-value 0.281

Standard Deviation of S 6.583

Standardized Value of S -0.456

Approximate p-value 0.324

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 9 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-39317h1 (bcs951)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 0.284

Maximum 22.1

Mean 10.4

Geometric Mean 8.476

Median 8.26

Standard Deviation 5.434

Coefficient of Variation 0.523

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -42

Tabulated p-value 0.109

Standard Deviation of S 33.12

Standardized Value of S -1.238

Approximate p-value 0.108

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 10 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40211p1 (bcs957)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 16

Number Values Reported (n) 16

Minimum 0.956

Maximum 7.81

Mean 3.811

Geometric Mean 3.351

Median 3.77

Standard Deviation 1.831

Coefficient of Variation 0.481

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 3

Tabulated p-value 0.482

Standard Deviation of S 22.19

Standardized Value of S 0.0901

Approximate p-value 0.464

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 11 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40214p1 (bcs962)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 22

Number Values Reported (n) 22

Minimum 9.76

Maximum 25.3

Mean 17.28

Geometric Mean 16.99

Median 17.25

Standard Deviation 3.251

Coefficient of Variation 0.188

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -98

Tabulated p-value 0.002

Standard Deviation of S 35.38

Standardized Value of S -2.741

Approximate p-value 0.00306

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 12 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40221j5 (bcs961)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 22

Number Values Reported (n) 22

Minimum 1.83

Maximum 12.8

Mean 7

Geometric Mean 6.359

Median 6.24

Standard Deviation 2.884

Coefficient of Variation 0.412

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -139

Tabulated p-value 0

Standard Deviation of S 35.46

Standardized Value of S -3.891

Approximate p-value 4.9851E-5

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 13 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40222d1 (bcs963)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 1.6

Maximum 9.425

Mean 4.53

Geometric Mean 4.032

Median 4.47

Standard Deviation 2.109

Coefficient of Variation 0.466

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 25

Tabulated p-value 0.246

Standard Deviation of S 33.1

Standardized Value of S 0.725

Approximate p-value 0.234

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 14 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40223a3 (bcs958)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 19

Number Values Reported (n) 19

Minimum 1.36

Maximum 12.7

Mean 6.554

Geometric Mean 5.599

Median 6.62

Standard Deviation 3.205

Coefficient of Variation 0.489

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -49

Tabulated p-value 0.047

Standard Deviation of S 28.58

Standardized Value of S -1.679

Approximate p-value 0.0465

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 15 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40226b1 (bcs959)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 4.03

Maximum 15

Mean 8.719

Geometric Mean 8.222

Median 9.08

Standard Deviation 2.976

Coefficient of Variation 0.341

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -110

Tabulated p-value 0

Standard Deviation of S 33.12

Standardized Value of S -3.291

Approximate p-value 4.9834E-4

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 16 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40226d2 (bcs960)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 18

Number Values Reported (n) 18

Minimum 8.37

Maximum 43.1

Mean 21.83

Geometric Mean 19.34

Median 19.3

Standard Deviation 10.88

Coefficient of Variation 0.498

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -7

Tabulated p-value 0.411

Standard Deviation of S 26.4

Standardized Value of S -0.227

Approximate p-value 0.41

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 17 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40227c1 (bcs969)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 16

Number Values Reported (n) 16

Minimum 4.42

Maximum 36.5

Mean 15.87

Geometric Mean 13.27

Median 15.1

Standard Deviation 9.288

Coefficient of Variation 0.585

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -60

Tabulated p-value 0.003

Standard Deviation of S 22.21

Standardized Value of S -2.656

Approximate p-value 0.00395

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 18 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40303b1 (bcs972)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 7.8

Maximum 17.5

Mean 10.49

Geometric Mean 10.23

Median 9.92

Standard Deviation 2.678

Coefficient of Variation 0.255

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -66

Tabulated p-value 0.024

Standard Deviation of S 33.12

Standardized Value of S -1.963

Approximate p-value 0.0248

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 19 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40305n3 (bcs964)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 20

Number Values Reported (n) 20

Minimum 2.3

Maximum 23.9

Mean 10.39

Geometric Mean 8.721

Median 7.44

Standard Deviation 6.385

Coefficient of Variation 0.614

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 16

Tabulated p-value 0.315

Standard Deviation of S 30.82

Standardized Value of S 0.487

Approximate p-value 0.313

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 20 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40307h1

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 6

Number Values Reported (n) 6

Minimum 13.3

Maximum 20.2

Mean 17.02

Geometric Mean 16.88

Median 17.4

Standard Deviation 2.3

Coefficient of Variation 0.135

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 1

Tabulated p-value 0.5

Standard Deviation of S 5.323

Standardized Value of S 0

Approximate p-value 0.5

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 21 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40308p1 (bcs965)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 16

Number Values Reported (n) 16

Minimum 5.83

Maximum 21.7

Mean 12.67

Geometric Mean 12.02

Median 12.33

Standard Deviation 4.076

Coefficient of Variation 0.322

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 0

Tabulated p-value 0.518

Standard Deviation of S 22.21

Standardized Value of S N/A

Approximate p-value N/A

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 22 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40310f1 (bcs968)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 20

Number Values Reported (n) 20

Minimum 10.1

Maximum 28.4

Mean 14.51

Geometric Mean 14.17

Median 13.7

Standard Deviation 3.72

Coefficient of Variation 0.256

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 9

Tabulated p-value 0.411

Standard Deviation of S 30.81

Standardized Value of S 0.26

Approximate p-value 0.398

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 23 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40315l1 (bcs973)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 9.83

Maximum 15.6

Mean 12.89

Geometric Mean 12.78

Median 13.2

Standard Deviation 1.731

Coefficient of Variation 0.134

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -56

Tabulated p-value 0.049

Standard Deviation of S 33.09

Standardized Value of S -1.662

Approximate p-value 0.0482

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 24 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40316h1

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 13

Number Values Reported (n) 13

Minimum 3.44

Maximum 10.9

Mean 8.155

Geometric Mean 7.848

Median 8.28

Standard Deviation 2.096

Coefficient of Variation 0.257

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 44

Tabulated p-value 0.003

Standard Deviation of S 16.39

Standardized Value of S 2.623

Approximate p-value 0.00435

**Statistically significant evidence of an increasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 25 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40331l1 (bcs967)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 2.69

Maximum 9.92

Mean 6.496

Geometric Mean 6.245

Median 6.35

Standard Deviation 1.772

Coefficient of Variation 0.273

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -55

Tabulated p-value 0.055

Standard Deviation of S 33.1

Standardized Value of S -1.631

Approximate p-value 0.0514

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 26 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40331p3 (bcs966)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 22

Number Values Reported (n) 22

Minimum 4.21

Maximum 23.2

Mean 10.07

Geometric Mean 8.964

Median 8.17

Standard Deviation 5.342

Coefficient of Variation 0.53

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -31

Tabulated p-value 0.201

Standard Deviation of S 35.46

Standardized Value of S -0.846

Approximate p-value 0.199

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 27 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-40332l1

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 9

Number Values Reported (n) 9

Minimum 9.53

Maximum 13.6

Mean 11.53

Geometric Mean 11.42

Median 10.9

Standard Deviation 1.72

Coefficient of Variation 0.149

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 26

Tabulated p-value 0.003

Standard Deviation of S 9.487

Standardized Value of S 2.635

Approximate p-value 0.0042

**Statistically significant evidence of an increasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 28 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-413000 (bcs971)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 17

Number Values Reported (n) 17

Minimum 7.52

Maximum 20.5

Mean 13.88

Geometric Mean 13.21

Median 13.4

Standard Deviation 4.344

Coefficient of Variation 0.313

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -34

Tabulated p-value 0.088

Standard Deviation of S 24.28

Standardized Value of S -1.359

Approximate p-value 0.087

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 29 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-41333m1 (bcs970)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 21

Number Values Reported (n) 21

Minimum 6.91

Maximum 33.9

Mean 13.56

Geometric Mean 12.36

Median 12

Standard Deviation 6.956

Coefficient of Variation 0.513

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -73

Tabulated p-value 0.015

Standard Deviation of S 33.1

Standardized Value of S -2.175

Approximate p-value 0.0148

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 30 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-ago409

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 5

Number Values Reported (n) 5

Minimum 8.1

Maximum 13.05

Mean 10.46

Geometric Mean 10.27

Median 10.5

Standard Deviation 2.243

Coefficient of Variation 0.214

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -6

Tabulated p-value 0.117

Standard Deviation of S 4.082

Standardized Value of S -1.225

Approximate p-value 0.11

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 31 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-akg-724

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 59

Number Values Reported (n) 59

Minimum 2.42

Maximum 27.8

Mean 12.79

Geometric Mean 11.29

Median 13.2

Standard Deviation 5.897

Coefficient of Variation 0.461

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -529

Critical Value (0.05) -1.645

Standard Deviation of S 152.9

Standardized Value of S -3.453

Approximate p-value 2.7669E-4

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 32 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-akg-725

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 59

Number Values Reported (n) 59

Minimum 6.42

Maximum 35.5

Mean 17.25

Geometric Mean 15.54

Median 13.8

Standard Deviation 8.053

Coefficient of Variation 0.467

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -481

Critical Value (0.05) -1.645

Standard Deviation of S 152.9

Standardized Value of S -3.139

Approximate p-value 8.4698E-4

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 33 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-akg-726

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 31

Number Values Reported (n) 40

Number Values Missing 9

Number Values Used 31

Minimum 0.01

Maximum 0.333

Mean 0.0411

Geometric Mean 0.0277

Median 0.025

Standard Deviation 0.0585

Coefficient of Variation 1.424

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 63

Critical Value (0.05) 1.645

Standard Deviation of S 58.74

Standardized Value of S 1.056

Approximate p-value 0.146

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 34 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-akg-727

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 58

Number Values Reported (n) 58

Minimum 0.535

Maximum 22.8

Mean 8.942

Geometric Mean 7.02

Median 6.83

Standard Deviation 5.773

Coefficient of Variation 0.646

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -427

Critical Value (0.05) -1.645

Standard Deviation of S 149.1

Standardized Value of S -2.858

Approximate p-value 0.00213

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 35 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-n40332m2

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 14

Number Values Reported (n) 14

Minimum 10

Maximum 32.3

Mean 15.38

Geometric Mean 14.65

Median 14.48

Standard Deviation 5.667

Coefficient of Variation 0.368

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 15

Tabulated p-value 0.225

Standard Deviation of S 18.27

Standardized Value of S 0.766

Approximate p-value 0.222

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 36 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-n41431q1 (abo112)

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 9

Number Values Reported (n) 9

Minimum 4.55

Maximum 13.8

Mean 9.406

Geometric Mean 8.99

Median 8.66

Standard Deviation 2.824

Coefficient of Variation 0.3

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -18

Tabulated p-value 0.038

Standard Deviation of S 9.592

Standardized Value of S -1.772

Approximate p-value 0.0382

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 37 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-timmmw1d

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 5

Number Values Reported (n) 11

Number Values Missing 6

Number Values Used 5

Minimum 0.013

Maximum 0.02

Mean 0.0151

Geometric Mean 0.0149

Median 0.0145

Standard Deviation 0.00288

Coefficient of Variation 0.191

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) 1

Tabulated p-value 0.592

Standard Deviation of S 3.958

Standardized Value of S 0

Approximate p-value 0.5

**Insufficient evidence to identify a significant
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 38 of 39

Mann-Kendall Trend Test Analysis

User Selected Options

Date/Time of Computation ProUCL 5.18/15/2017 1:58:51 PM

From File Input.xls

Full Precision OFF

Confidence Coefficient 0.95

Level of Significance 0.05

Nitrate-N (mg/L)-timmmw1s

General Statistics

Number or Reported Events Not Used 0

Number of Generated Events 9

Number Values Reported (n) 11

Number Values Missing 2

Number Values Used 9

Minimum 0.01

Maximum 4.5

Mean 0.722

Geometric Mean 0.137

Median 0.172

Standard Deviation 1.455

Coefficient of Variation 2.015

**Mann-Kendall Test
**

M-K Test Value (S) -20

Tabulated p-value 0.022

Standard Deviation of S 9.592

Standardized Value of S -1.981

Approximate p-value 0.0238

**Statistically significant evidence of a decreasing
**

trend at the specified level of significance.

Page 39 of 39

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