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アジア経済見通し2017年改訂版

アジア経済見通し2017年改訂版
Asian Development Outlook
2017 Update
Sustaining Development Through
Public-Private Partnership

Yasuyuki Sawada
Chief Economist
Asian Development Bank

The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of
the Asian Development Bank, or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent.
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概要 Key messages
● Growth in developing Asia upgraded to 5.9% in 2017 and
5.8% in 2018 on trade rebound and PRC momentum
➢ PRC growth boosted by fiscal support and trade
pickup: 6.7% in 2017 and 6.4% in 2018
➢ India growth strong despite short-term challenges:
7.0% in 2017 and 7.4% in 2018
● Trade rebound is broad-based and synchronized across
Asia, as production networks evolve
● Public-private partnership can be an innovative tool to
meet Asia’s massive infrastructure needs

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アジアの発展途上経済、成長率上方修正
Developing Asia’s growth forecast revised up
Developing Asia
GDP growth (%) Developing Asia excluding NIEs
8

6.8
6.6
6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3
6.2
6.0 5.9
6 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
ADO 2017 Update ADO 2017 Update
f = forecast; NIEs = newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China
Source: Asian Development Outlook database.

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先進諸国・経済の成長率回復
Faster recovery in industrial economies...
2015 2016 2017 2018

ADO ADO
Actual 2017 Update 2017 Update
GDP growth (%)
Major industrial economies 2.3 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0
United States 2.9 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4
Euro area 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.8
Japan 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.1

Note: Average growth rates are weighed by gross national income, Atlas method, in current US dollar.
Source: Asian Development Outlook database.

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貿易の回復につながる
...supports a synchronized rebound in trade
Growth in Nominal Exports Growth in Nominal Imports
Jan 2015 to Sep 2016 Oct 2016 to Jul 2017 Jan 2015 to Sep 2016 Oct 2016 to July 2017

Bangladesh Azerbaijan
Cambodia Myanmar
Pakistan Brunei Darussalam
Nepal Sri Lanka
People's Rep. of China Kyrgyz Republic
Tajikistan Hong Kong, China
Brunei Darussalam Georgia
Thailand Bangladesh
Hong Kong, China Singapore
Singapore Philippines
Malaysia Malaysia
India Indonesia
Philippines People's Rep. of China
Sri Lanka Thailand
Republic of Korea Taipei,China
Taipei,China Republic of Korea
Indonesia Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan Mongolia
Viet Nam Armenia
Georgia India
Armenia Viet Nam
Kazakhstan Pakistan
Kyrgyz Republic Nepal
Mongolia Cambodia

-50 -25 0 25 50 -40 -20 0 20 40
% change, year on year % change, year on year

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, 2017 data refers to the period January to July 2017. KGZ 2017 data ends in April; Cambodia, in May;
and Bangladesh and Brunei in June.

Sources: CEIC Data Company and Haver Analytics (accessed 15 September 2017).
地域全体で軒並み成長率上方修正
Growth upgraded across the region
2017 2018 2017 2018
ADO Update ADO Update ADO Update ADO Update

East Asia 5.8 6.0 5.6 5.8 South Asia 7.0 6.7 7.2 7.0
China, People’s Rep. of 6.5 6.7 6.2 6.4 Bangladesh 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.9
Hong Kong, China 2.0 3.6 2.1 3.2 India 7.4 7.0 7.6 7.4
Korea, Rep. of 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.8 Pakistan 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.5
Taipei,China 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2
Central Asia 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9
Southeast Asia 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 Azerbaijan -1.1 -1.3 1.2 1.0
Indonesia 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3 Kazakhstan 2.4 2.7 2.2 3.0
Malaysia 4.4 5.4 4.6 5.4
Philippines 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 The Pacific 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.2
Singapore 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.7 Fiji 3.5 3.6 4.0 3.9
Thailand 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 Papua New Guinea 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.8
Viet Nam 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.5

Developing Asia 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.8 Excluding NIEs 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.3

NIEs = newly industrialized economies.
Source: Asian Development Outlook database.

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引き続き、国内需要が成長の牽引要因
Domestic demand still the main growth driver
Demand-side contributions to growth, selected economies, H1 2017

Percentage points
Total consumption Total investments Net exports GDP growth
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NIEs ASEAN-5

5

0

-5
PRC IND HKG KOR SIN TAP INO MAL PHI THA VIE

H = half.
Notes: ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations; NIEs = newly industrialized economies; GDP = gross domestic product; HKG = Hong Kong, China; IND =
India; INO = Indonesia; KOR = Republic of Korea; MAL = Malaysia; PHI = Philippines; PRC = People’s Republic of China; SIN = Singapore; TAP = Taipei,China; THA =
Thailand. IND data refers to Q1 FY 2017. Components do not add up to total due to a statistical discrepancy.
Sources: Haver Analytics and CEIC Data Company (accessed 15 September 2017); Asian Development Outlook database.

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中国の成長は4月の予測を上回る
PRC growth exceeding expectations
Demand-side contributions to growth Merchandise exports and purchasing
managers’ index
Consumption
Investments
Net Exports % change, year on Export growth PMI
Gross domestic product year, 3-months
moving average Index
percentage points
30 55
10 expansion

5

0 50

0

-5 -30 contraction 45
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Jan Jan Jan Jan
2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Bloomberg; Haver Analytics; and CEIC Data Company (accessed 1 September 2017).

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インド経済は一時的落込み
India growth strong despite
transitory challenges
Demand-side contributions to growth Merchandise exports and purchasing
Net Exports manager's index
Gross fixed capital formation % change, year on
Index
year, 3-months
Government consumption expenditure Export growth PMI
moving average
Private consumption expenditure
30 55
Gross domestic product
expansion
percentage points
10

5
0 50

0

contraction

-5 -30 45
FY Q1 Q3 FY Q1 Q3 FY Q1 Jan Jan Jan Jan
2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q= quarter.
Note: Years are fiscal years, Q1 refers to data for April-June. Supply-side output are at basic prices. Excludes other expenditure
which includes valuables, changes in inventories and statistical discrepancy.

Source: Bloomberg; Haver Analytics; and CEIC Data Company (accessed 1 September 2017).
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ASEAN経済の成長も軒並み上方修正
ASEAN growth beating expectations
GDP growth, %
% 2017 2018
10
8.0
7.7
8 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.0
6.5 6.7 6.3 6.5
6 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3
5.4 5.4

4 3.5 3.6
2.7 2.7

2 1.0
0.0
0
ASEAN BRU CAM INO LAO MAL MYA PHI SIN THA VIE
ASEAN=Association of Southeast Asian Nations; BRU=Brunei Darussalam; CAM=Cambodia; INO=Indonesia; LAO=Lao
People’s Democratic Republic; MAL=Malaysia; MYA=Myanmar; PHI=Philippines; SIN=Singapore; THA=Thailand; VIE=Viet
Nam
No change from ADO 2017 forecasts Upgraded forecasts Downgraded forecasts

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原油・商品の国際価格の上昇傾向は抑えられる
Modest pickup in global commodity prices...
Prices of Brent Crude Food prices
$/barrel 2010=100
150 Spot 130
Monthly
Annual average
Baseline forecast
Baseline
Annual average

100

100

50

0 70
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Forecast Forecast
Sources: Bloomberg (accessed 22 September 2017); World Bank. Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet). http://www.worldbank.org
(accessed 8 September 2017).

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インフレは全体として抑制
...ease inflationary pressures
Inflation (%) ADO2017
5 Update
10-year average (2007-2016)
4.0
4 3.8
3.2
3.0 3.0 2.9
3
2.5 2.4
2.2
2

1

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
f = forecast.
Source: Asian Development Outlook database.

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経済へのリスク要因は全体として軽減
Risks have become more balanced
● Oil price movements
● Policy uncertainty in the US
➢ Fed balance sheet normalization
➢ Fiscal policy direction
● Geopolitical or weather shocks

Since immediate risks are more balanced, focus on
removing constraints to higher productivity

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• 特集:「官民連携を通じた持続的発展」

Theme chapter:
Sustaining Development through
Public-Private Partnership

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アジアのインフラ投資需要は膨大
Asia’s infrastructure needs dwarf
traditional funding
$1.7 trillion annual investment needed
sources
Region’s infrastructure financed
through 2030 largely by public funds
$ trillion in 2015 prices
Private Public
1.2
$ 0.98 100
[56%] 23.4%
80
0.8 51.2%
$ 0.60
[32%] 60 78.6%
99.8%
40 76.6%
0.4
$ 0.15 48.8%
$ 0.05 20
[9%]
[3%] 21.4%
0.0 0 0.2%
Energy Transportation ICT Water ICT Energy Transportation Water

ICT = Information and Communication Technology
Source: ADB estimates based on country sources and Private Participation in Infrastructure Database, World Bank;
World Development Indicators, World Bank.

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インフラ需要を埋めるには官民連携が鍵
Public-private partnership has potential
to fill the infrastructure gap
PPP committed investments, by sector
PPPs in Asia rose fourfold in 25 years
1991 – 2015 ($700 billion)
‘000 number of projects
Water and
1.0 Central Asia sewerage,
East Asia 5%
The Pacific
0.8 South Asia
Southeast Asia
Transport,
0.5
30%
Energy,
0.3 54%

ICT, 11%
0.0
1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015

ICT = Information and Communication Technology.
Source: ADB estimates based on country sources and Private Participation in Infrastructure Database, World Bank;
World Development Indicators, World Bank.
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官民連携がもたらす効果
PPP can yield better results…

Improve delivery Improve access
and growth

Doubling PPP investment from
✓ Incentivized its current 0.5% of GDP to 1.0%
finance
✓ 12 million more people
✓ Operational with safe drinking water
efficiency
✓ 14 million more people
✓ Capacity to with electricity
innovate
✓ Additional 0.1 percentage
points in GDP growth

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官民連携が成功するための要素
...but there are hurdles to PPP success
Project cancellation

✓ $41.6 billion in Developing Asia are cancelled
(6.3% of all committed PPP investment)

Factors to PPP ✓ Project
• Solicited/unsolicited proposal through competitive
survival bidding
• Type of PPP
• Risk allocation
✓ Macroeconomic factor
• Macroeconomic performance
• Fiscal balance
✓ Socioeconomic stability
• Law and order
• Degree of corruption
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新しい資金調達が不可欠
New finance sources need to be tapped...
Institutional investors: assets under
management, $ trillion, end-2013
Global Asia-Pacific, incl. Japan and Australia ▪ Conventional:
40 $ trillion ➢ Equity and bank loans
30 ▪ Emerging:
20
➢ Bonds
▪ Underutilized:
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➢ Institutional investors
0 ➢ $ 100 trillion globally
Pension Mutual Insurance SWFs Others
funds funds funds
SWF = Sovereign Wealth Funds
Note: Others include family offices, foundation, endowments, and other institutions
Source: Estimates based from World Bank 2014, The CityUK 2014, OECD 2016, Inderst 2016

How does Asia tap institutional investors?

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そのために「投資リスク」をどう埋めるかが鍵
...which entails bridging the “risk gap”
Multilateral
Credit Enhancement
Development Banks

✓Partial credit or revenue ✓ Provide credit-
guarantee enhancement
✓Bond guarantee products
✓Project completion risk ✓ Unlock potential in
guarantee private capital
markets
✓Mezzanine and
✓ Support quality
subordinated debt project preparation

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官民連携を成功させるための「三つのP」
PPP success depends on the 3 Ps:
suitable qualified right
Projects Partners Process
▪ Net social benefits ▪ Technical ▪ Optimal risk
▪ Sufficient private expertise allocation
sector interest ▪ Experienced and ▪ Effective and
▪ With scope for reputable enforceable
innovation and ▪ Access to private contracts
efficiency gains finance ▪ Transparent
▪ Verifiable bidding process
performance ▪ Credible revenue
expectations

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概要 Key messages
● Growth in developing Asia upgraded to 5.9% in 2017 and
5.8% in 2018 on trade rebound and PRC momentum
➢ PRC growth boosted by fiscal support and trade
pickup: 6.7% in 2017 and 6.4% in 2018
➢ India growth strong despite short-term challenges:
7.0% in 2017 and 7.4% in 2018
● Trade rebound is broad-based and synchronized across
Asia, as production networks evolve
● Public-private partnership can be an innovative tool to
meet Asia’s massive infrastructure needs

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