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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser.

Annual Journal of Hydraulic


B1 (Hydraulic Engineering,
Engineering), JSCE,
Vol. Vol.57,
69, No. 2013, February
4, I_13-I_18, 2013.

HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS OF A CHANGING


CLIMATE ON FLOODS AND DROUGHTS IN
PHILIPPINE RIVER BASINS

Patricia Ann JARANILLA-SANCHEZ1, Toshio KOIKE2, Cho Thanda NYUNT3,


Mohammed RASMY1, Izumi HASEGAWA4, Akiko MATSUMURA5 and Daikichi
OGAWADA5
1Member of JSCE, Ph D., Research Associate, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo (Tokyo, Japan)
2 Member of JSCE, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, (Tokyo, Japan)
3 Member of JSCE, Ph.D. student, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, (Tokyo, Japan)
4 Researcher, M.Sc., Project Researcher, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo (Tokyo, Japan)
5 Researcher, Applied Hydraulics and Hydrology Group, Nippon Koei, (Ibaraki, Japan)

The development of new water sources to ensure more stable water supply for Metropolitan Manila
is urgently needed especially with the changing climate. The objectives of this study are: 1) to develop
hydrological models in 3 river basins (Angat, Kaliwa and Pampanga) surrounding Metro Manila; 2) to
assess basin-scale hydrological impacts of climate change in terms of a) flooding trends and b) drought
trends. Calibrations of the basins were performed in Angat dam inflows for Angat basin; and Pantabangan
dam, Cabanatuan, Zaragoza, San Isidro and Arayat stream flows for Pampanga river basin. Soil moisture
verification of Pampanga river basin utilized monthly surface soil moistures from both the LDAS-UT and
hydrological model outputs in short vegetation areas. Incorporating bias corrected rainfall and other
parameters from GCMs showed future flooding trends is virtually certain to increase while drought trends
are as likely as not to increase in the uplands but very likely to increase in the flood plains.

Key Words :
Hydrological impacts, WEB-DHM, surface soil moisture, Pampanga River Basin

1. INTRODUCTION including Angat, Kaliwa and Pampanga river basins


Local residents of Metropolitan Manila area in in terms of a) flooding trends and b) drought trends.
the Philippines rely on the Angat Dam in the Angat To accomplish this, Hydrometeorological
River Basin for 97% of their domestic water parameters (rainfall, temperature, short wave and
resources. With the current population increase in long wave radiation) from the Global circulation
Metropolitan Manila coupled with the looming models (GCMs) from the IPCC1 4th Assessment
threat of climate change, the Kaliwa and Pampanga Report Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
river basin are some of the alternative water sources Phase three (CMIP3) archived in the Data and
planned to supplement domestic water supply to Integration Analysis System (DIAS) were used as
Metro Manila. However, prior to building additional forcing data to determine past and future climate
structures in these alternative basins, it is necessary change projections at the 3 river basins. Currently
to identify at first the projected impacts of extreme these models are state of the art tools used in
events such as floods and droughts resulting from determining climate change impacts in different
climate change. parts of the world. Previous regional studies on
The objective of this study is to assess the climate change projections in the Asian monsoon
hydrological impacts of climate change on the water region show that increases in greenhouse gases
cycle into Metro Manila and its adjoining areas, increased in mean precipitation and its variability.

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However, studies show considerably inconclusive Kaliwa lie along the Cordillera Mountain ranges
results for droughts.2 while Pampanga river basin lies along and on the
Selected General Circulation Models (GCMs) western side of the ranges. This difference in
ensembles were incorporated into the Water and location gives very distinct rainfall distribution in
Energy Budget-Based Distributed Hydrological the largest basin compared to the other two.
Model and 1981-2000 (past) versus 2046-2065 Angat river basin consists mostly of dense
(future) impacts on floods and droughts were secondary forests (broadleaf deciduous trees); and
analyzed by focusing on climate change effects on clay and clay loam soils. The Umiray-Angat
surface flow. However, due to large uncertainties conveyance tunnel (available data: 2001-2010) was
associated with GCMs, very large bias (especially in incorporated into the model calibration (2003) and
precipitation) need to be reduced and the mismatch validation (2001-2009). Kaliwa river basin consists
of grid resolution between GCM outputs and of a combination of dense secondary forests and
basin-scale hydrological model inputs. Hence to short vegetation; and clay loam soil. There are no
minimize the errors resulting from these biases3,4,5, a streamflow gauges in this basin yet so natural flow
3-step bias correction was used prior to model is assumed in the whole river basin assuming similar
output utilization. Spatial downscaling by bias soil parameters with nearby Angat river basin.
correcting on 21 gauges with observed data were On the other hand, the Pampanga river basins
employed while temporal downscaling by using land use consists of mostly agriculture or C3
specimen hourly rainfall distribution for different grasslands. The local soils consist of mostly clay
intensities were used. Analysis of flooding trends loam, sandy clay loam, sandy loam and clay. The
were based on the analysis of the 10th percentile of Casecnan trans-basin tunnel, Aurora trans-basin
peak flow trends while for drought, low flow was channel and Masiway spillway outflow were
analyzed based on the 10th percentile of the 20-year included in the simulations.
past drought discharge (355th value descending
order). Long-term drought intensity trends were (2) Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed
analyzed using the standard anomaly Index (SA)6 Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM)
applied to discharge flows in each basin to quantify The WEB-DHM was developed by fully
(monthly scale) drought trends for the past versus coupling a land-surface model, the simple biosphere
the future. This index can be utilized to determine scheme, (SiB2)7), with a geomorphology-based
drought frequency and intensity using at least 20 hydrological model (GBHM)8). The model enabled
years of monthly datasets from different consistent descriptions of water, energy and CO2
hydrological parameters by fitting an appropriate fluxes at the basin scale. The model physically
distribution pattern to the monthly data and described ET using a biophysical land surface
standardizing and categorizing the deviations from scheme for simultaneously simulating heat,
the mean with increasing dryness (if below 1). For moisture, and CO2 fluxes in the
this study, it is used to quantify drought for soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT)
discharge. processes.9),10) Inputs into the model consist of static
(constant) and dynamic (changing temporally)
2. METHODS parameters.
There are several methods employed in this (a)Static parameters
study: (a) Hydrological model development, The digital elevation map was based on the
calibration and validation by incorporating 90-m Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM)
conveyance tunnels and other man-made Digital Elevation Database (V4.1) produced by
hydrological structures that affect river flow, (b) NASA but reprocessed by the CGIAR Consortium
GCM model selection, rainfall bias correction and for Spatial Information (CTGIAR-CSI) re-projected
downscaling using 21 rain gauges to represent the from geographic to UTM (zone 51) and re-sampled
region, (c) incorporation of GCM meteorological to 500m x 500m grid size. Local land use map
parameters into the hydrological model and, (d) reclassified into SiB2 land use classification and
analysis of climate change trends for floods and local soil map reclassified to FAO classification
droughts. were also re-sampled to 500m x 500m grid size and
assumed to have a homogeneous land use and soil
(1) Study Area type for each grid.
Three basins are considered in this study. Angat (b)Dynamic parameters
river basin (1,085km2), Kaliwa River Basin Meteorological parameters from both local
(included in the Agos river basin, 280km2) and gauges (12 gauges) are: surface air temperature (K),
Pampanga river basin (10,981 km2). Angat and relative humidity (%), total cloud cover (%),

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downward long wave and short wave radiation flux of the GCM to represent regional climate of the area
at surface (W/m2). Temperature was temporally under investigation. Seven parameters were
downscaled from daily to hourly using sine considered in selecting the appropriate GCMs that
functions for 3 time slices (sunrise to time to comprise the ensemble: precipitation, longwave
maximum temperature (Ho), from Ho to sunset, and radiation, sea surface temperature, sea level
from sunset to sunrise of the next day) within 24 pressure, air temperature, meridional and zonal
hours11). The downward solar radiation was wind. A simple index counter was used for
estimated from sunshine duration, temperature and identifying the modes which had above average
humidity using a hybrid model.12) Longwave spatial correlation and below average RMSE
radiation was estimated from temperature, relative prioritizing models with good rainfall patterns. The
humidity, pressure and solar radiation using the 6 models selected are: gfdl_cm2_0, gfdl_cm2_1,
relationship between solar radiation and longwave ipsl_cm4, ingv_echam4 and miroc3_2_medres.
radiation.13) Rainfall was from daily data in 12 An improved 3-step bias correction method was
meteorological gauge stations and 35 synoptic used to correct rainfall15) to account for rainfall
stations. These were spatially distributed and extremes, normal rainfall and no rain days while no
downscaled by inverse distance weighing bias correction was done for the other
interpolation (IDW). The Nash Coefficients(Nash)14) meteorological parameters (temperature, short wave
and relative errors(RE) were used in the calibrations and long wave radiation).
of the 3 basins. Due to possible limitations of in-situ Spatial downscaling was done by correcting the
data availability, it is necessary to consider biases on each of 21 selected rain gauge data,
satellite-based rainfall products to be widely applied temporally downscaling them using average hourly
to catchment-scale impact studies. Soil moisture rainfall factors from several rain gauges and
information in the Philippines is not readily re-gridding the hourly rainfall data. Hence this
available for all locations and time scales. method assumes that future rainfall will have similar
climatology and distribution as that of past rainfall.
(3) GCM Model Selection, Bias Correction and Temperature, short wave and long wave radiation
Data incorporation into WEB-DHM were based on similar patterns as those in observed
GCM model selection was based on the ability data.

Fig.1. River network, land use and calibrations in Pampanga, Angat and Kaliwa river basins.

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Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, VOL.42, 1998, February
(4) Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS-UT) To supplement validation of calibrated
Satellite-based low-frequency microwave WEB-DHM outputs, monthly surface soil moisture
brightness temperature is strongly affected by outputs of LDAS-UT were compared with surface
near-surface soil moisture so it can be assimilated soil moisture outputs from WEB-DHM. Results
into a land-surface model to improve modeling of showed that the temporal behavior of soil moisture
soil moisture and the surface energy budget. Soil from basin scale hydrological modeling and larger
moisture verification in the basin used the Land scale estimation using LDAS-UT can be used to
Data Assimilation System developed by the estimate large scale soil moisture of the area. RE
University of Tokyo (LDAS-UT)16) to estimate soil was found to be 2.23%. Currently there are some
moisture and surface temperature. LDAS-UT differences in the transition between wet and dry
consists of a land surface model (LSM) and season due primarily to: 1.) Coarser resolution grid
radiative transfer model (RTM) for calculating of LDAS-UT as compared to that of WEB-DHM,
surface fluxes and soil moisture by estimating the 2.) differences in rainfall input between LDAS-UT
microwave brightness temperature and utilizing an (uses TRMM rainfall) and WEB-DHM (uses
optimization scheme to determine optimal values of observed rainfall), and 3.)the scale of comparison
soil moisture by minimizing the difference between between LDAS-UT(grid point) and WEB-DHM
modeled and observed brightness temperature. (basin average upstream of Zaragosa gauge).
However, results show that the estimations of the
3. RESULTS regional surface soil moistures from LDAS-UT are
(1) Calibration of the River Basin very similar with those from basin scale
Calibration of Angat dam inflow was done by hydrological simulations hence, they can be used to
comparing dam inflows for the year 2003 , verify past basin scale soil moisture trends
Nash=0.72, RE=23%) considering peak discharges especially in areas with short vegetation in areas
and low flows. The observed records were originally with no observed soil moistures. Further verification
collected as reservoir elevation so the low flows in of these values should be done when soil moisture
the observed data had very large day to day information become available in the future.
variation. The difference in some of the peak flows Currently, the simulated soil moistures assimilated
are as a result of the simplification in the temporal by LDAS-UT and simulated by WEB-DHM were
downscaling of daily to hourly rainfall. Soil not used to project future climate change effects on
parameters were adjusted from baseline information basin scale droughts since the focus of the study was
available in the FAO global dataset. mainly on the behavior of discharge during extreme
Currently there are no installed streamflow events.
gauges in Kaliwa river basin. Hence calibration of
this basin was done by assuming similar soil (3) Peak flow Trends
properties for the same soil types in Angat and Peak flow trends can be good indicators of
Kaliwa. future floods. Results after ranking (in descending
Calibration in the Pampanga river basin was order) the past and future 20 years daily discharge
done for 2002 upstream in Pantabangan dam show similar patterns can be expected in the near
(Nash=0.5, RE=3.8%), Cabanatuan (Nash=0.05, future. However, the 10th percentile peak daily
RE=83%), Zaragoza (Nash=0.35, RE=34%), San discharges for Angat, Kaliwa and Pampanga river
Isidro (Nash=0.22, RE=50%) and 2001 for Arayat basins showed that all 6 models of each basin had
streamflow gauge (Nash=0.31, RE=24%). Some of higher peak discharges in the future. This indicates a
the very low Nash are due to the sparse distribution virtually certain (100% probability) increase in
of poor quality rainfall data in some areas covering possible flood events in the future. (Table 1, 2 and
this river basin. 3, column 1)
(2) Temporal comparison of soil moisture In all the 3 basins, highest peak discharge can go
from 1.5x to 6x increase from past values while the
remaining 19 peak flows show only a slightly higher
(1x) to double (2x) the past peak values. These
simulations were under the assumption that
climatology will be similar in the past and in the
future. However, even after bias correction and
temporal downscaling, only the intensities and
frequency of the extreme events can be simulated.
Further studies are still needed to improve the
Fig.2 Comparison of surface soil moistures from LDAS-UT and
WEB-DHM in Zaragoza Station, Pampanga River Basin.
timing as to when the extreme events occur. Hence,

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careful considerations of these assumptions are chance of drought in the future while a 90% chance
needed prior to application of the results. of increasing drought conditions in the future in
Pampanga river basin. This difference is due mainly
(4) Drought Trends to the local land use conditions in the region and the
Base flow trends were used to determine general location of the basins (upland or in the flood
drought trends from climate change. The 355th rank plains).
of the past climatologically averaged daily discharge The presence of forest cover in the 2 smaller
simulation was used as the basis of drought basins in addition to the greater intensity rainfall
discharge. The 10th percentile (second lowest 355th patterns buffered the effects of drought in the
rank base flow) was additionally used to identify smaller basins compared to that of Pampanga were
drought discharge for the 20 year simulation in past croplands and low rainfall predominate the area.
GCMs. Table 1, 2 and 3 show the summary of The colors in the tables below show this large
drought trend changes in future GCMs compared to uncertainty in drought trends for Angat and Kaliwa
past average drought discharge and 10th percentile 50% of the models show increasing drought trends
drought discharge. The number of days that base (red) while the remaining 50% show decreasing
flow was less than past drought discharge was drought discharge (blue). Five out of 6 (83%) of the
identified as well as the longest number of days models for Pampanga showed increasing drought
each year that is below average drought discharge. trends.
Angat and Kaliwa river basin show a 50-60%
Table 1 Summary of Flooding and drought trends in future GCMs for Angat dam Inflows.
GCM Flooding trends Drought # of days/year Upper Limit of # of days/year Longest # of Change in SA
Model 10th percentile Discharge that baseflow Drought that baseflow days for each (%)
average Peak Flow (m3/s) < past drought Discharge < past drought year below
(m3/s) (average 355th discharge (m3/s) discharge average
rank) (average of 10th percentile (10th drought
355th rank) of 355th rank percentile of discharge
355th rank)
Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future ED SD MD
MIROC 983.50 1456.98 0.144 0.151 27 34 0.123 0.107 2 13 100 135 -- 50 14
IPSL 1149.05 1921.72 1.85 6.46 22 0 1.6 5.939 2 0 59 0 -- -- 0
INGV 1070.14 1435.74 0.17 0.194 30 11 0.138 0.156 3 0 104 76 -- -66 25
GFDL_1 1081.93 1550.13 0.156 0.173 39 28 0.123 0.131 1 0 134 88 -- -- -20
GFDL_0 1172.05 1380.76 0.174 0.175 44 64 0.122 0.116 3 13 167 255 -100 50 60
CSIRO 737.92 2342.20 0.15 0.154 37 34 0.13 0.11 5 15 193 191 -- -100 -100
Table 2 Summary of drought trends from GCMs for Kaliwa river basin.
GCM Flooding trends Drought # of days/year Upper Limit of # of days/year Longest # of Change in SA
Model 10th percentile Discharge that baseflow Drought that baseflow days for each (%)
average Peak Flow (m3/s) < past drought Discharge < past drought year below
(m3/s) (average 355th discharge (m3/s) discharge (10th average
rank) (average of 10th percentile percentile of drought
355th rank) of 355th rank 355th rank) discharge
Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future ED SD MD
MIROC 588.17 837.90 0.025 0.021 26 60 0.017 0.016 1 12 79 139 -- -50 -15
IPSL 512.57 841.53 2.42 2.73 27 12 1.857 2.201 2 0 99 38 -- -- 0
INGV 612.31 762.52 0.028 0.023 22 45 0.018 0.016 1 7 60 91 -- -66 -8
GFDL_1 624.19 942.52 0.68 0.023 38 192 0.515 0.017 4 184 151 286 -- -- -26
GFDL_0 691.82 825.65 0.034 0.035 34 61.1 0.02 0.023 1 0 133 233 -- -66 0
CSIRO 592.94 1806.19 0.05 0.043 55 49 0.021 0.025 1 0 157 149 -- -- -100
Table 3. Summary of flooding and drought trends from GCMs in San Isidro gauge, Pampanga River Basin
GCM Flooding trends Drought # of days/year Upper Limit of # of days/year Longest # of Change in SA
Model 10th percentile Discharge that baseflow Drought that baseflow days (for each (%)
average Peak Flow (m3/s) < past drought Discharge < past drought year below
(m3/s) (average 355th discharge (m3/s) discharge (10th average
rank) (average of 10th percentile percentile of drought
355th rank) of 355th rank 355th rank) discharge)
Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future ED SD MD
MIROC 2815.88 4280.53 3.84 2.529 22 34 0.899 0.58 3 9 93 106 -50 -75 -77
IPSL 3046.52 4698.92 11.78 12.547 19 19 3.791 4.209 2 1 54 87 -- 33 0
INGV 3105.22 4061.48 5.05 3.96 18 22 1.528 1.451 3 5 54 57 -- -100 18
GFDL_1 3257.88 4609.88 4.78 2.93 30 43 0.749 0.665 2 2.95 96 111 100 0 37
GFDL_0 3759.39 4319.42 3.64 2.43 29 34 0.746 0.695 5 6 100 124 -- 33 -13
CSIRO 2216.33 5955.37 12.66 9.948 21 35 2.763 1.905 2 7 57 79 -- -- 62
Red=drier in future; more frequent below drought discharge Blue=wetter in future; less frequently below drought discharge
ED=Extremely Dry condition SD=Severely Dry condition MD=Moderately Dry condition

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Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, VOL.42, 1998, February
(5) Longer duration drought trends Thailand. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 11(4):13731390,
The SA drought index6) was used to project (2007).
longer duration (at least 1 month) drying trends in 6) Jaranilla-Sanchez, P.A., L. Wang and T. Koike:
the future (see SA trends in the last columns of Modelling the Hydrological responses of the
Tables 1, 2, 3). For Angat, 3 models increase, 2 Pampanga river basin, Philippines: A quantitative
models remain the same and 1 model decreased approach for identifying droughts, Water Resour.
while for Kaliwa, 4 models decreased while 2 Res., doi: 10.1029/2010WR00972, 2011.
models remained the same. 7). Sellers, P.J, L. Bounoua, G.J. Collatz, D.A. Randall,
D.A. Dazlich, S.O. Los, J.A. Berry, I. Fung, C.J.
Basin-scale average discharge for the entire
Tucker, C.B. Field, and T.G. Jensen: Comparison of
Pampanga river basin showed that only miroc model
radiative and physiological effects of doubled
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different degrees of increase and decrease in the 1402-1406, doi:10.1126/science.271.5254.1402, 1996
categories. The only difference is the presence of 8) Yang, D., T. Koike and H. Tanizawa: Application of a
some extremely dry conditions in 3 of the models. distributed hydrological model and weather radar
observation for flood management in the upper Tone
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS River of Japan, Hydrol. Process., 18,
Based on results from the 3 basins, it is virtually doi:10.1002/hyp.5752, 2004.
certain that larger floods will occur more often in 9) Wang, L. and T. Koike: Comparison of a Distributed
the future. On the other hand, the results also Biosphere Hydrological Model with GBHM. Ann.
suggested that severe droughts will very likely occur Jour. Hydraul. Eng.-JSCE, pp.103-108, 2009.
in the Pampanga river basin but about as likely as 10) Wang, L., T. Koike, K. Yang, T.J. Jackson, R.
not in Angat and Kaliwa basins with local Bindlish and Yang, D.: Development of a distributed
conditions playing a very important role in how biosphere hydrological model and its evaluation with
floods and droughts affect them. However, careful the Southern Great Plains Experiments (SGP97 and
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consideration of uncertainty should be considered
11) Cessaraccio C., D. Spano, P. Duce and R.L. Snyder:
for water resource management planning factoring
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT:
12) Yang, K., T. Koike, B. Ye: Improving estimation of
This research was implemented as part of a project of
hourly, daily and monthly solar radiation by
the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for
importing global datasets, Agricultural and Forest
The study of Water Security Master Plan for Metro
Meteorology, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.02.001,
Manila and its Adjoining Areas, Data Integration and
2006.
Analysis System (DIAS) project 2011-2015 and the
13) Crawford, T. and C. Duchon: An improved
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
parameterization for estimating effective atmospheric
(RECCA) project.
emissivity for use in calculating daytime downwelling
longwave radiation, J. Applied Meteorol., Vol. 38,
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