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John Bagot Glubb was born in 1897, his father being a regular officer in the Royal Engineers.
At the age of four he left England for Mauritius, where his father was posted for a three-year
tour of duty. At the age of ten he was sent to school for a year in Switzerland. These youthful
travels may have opened his mind to the outside world at an early age.
He entered the Royal Military Academy at Woolwich in September 1914, and was
commissioned in the Royal Engineers in April 1915. He served throughout the first World War
in France and Belgium, being wounded three times and awarded the Military Cross. In 1920 he
volunteered for service in Iraq, as a regular officer, but in 1926 resigned his commission and
accepted an administrative post under the Iraq Government.
In 1930, however, he signed a contract to serve the Transjordan Government (now Jordan).
From 1939 to 1956 he commanded the famous Jordan Arab Legion, which was in reality the
Jordan Army. Since his retirement he has published seventeen books, chiefly on the Middle
East, and has lectured widely in Britain, the United States and Europe.
Physical science has expanded its knowledge endeavour to deduce from them any lessons
by building on the work of its predecessors, which seem to be applicable to them all.
and by making millions of careful experi- The word empire, by association with the
ments, the results of which are meticulously British Empire, is visualised by some people
recorded. Such methods have not yet been as an organisation consisting of a home-
employed in the study of world history. Our country in Europe and colonies in other
piecemeal historical work is still mainly continents. In this essay, the term empire is
dominated by emotion and prejudice. used to signify a great power, often called
today a superpower. Most of the empires in
history have been large landblocks, almost
II The lives of empires without overseas possessions.
If we desire to ascertain the laws which We possess a considerable amount of
govern the rise and fall of empires, the information on many empires recorded in
obvious course is to investigate the imperial history, and of their vicissitudes and the
experiments recorded in history, and to lengths of their lives, for example:
This list calls for certain comments. normally a gradual period of expansion and
(1) The present writer is exploring the facts, then a period of decline. The resemblance in
not trying to prove anything. The dates given the duration of these great powers may be
are largely arbitrary. Empires do not usually queried. Human affairs are subject to many
begin or end on a certain date. There is chances, and it is not to be expected that they
The Fate of Empires 3
One of the very few units of measurement Peninsula. They consisted chiefly of wan-
which have not seriously changed since the dering tribes, and had no government, no
Assyrians is the human generation, a period constitution and no army. Syria, Palestine,
of about twenty-five years. Thus a period of Egypt and North Africa were Roman
250 years would represent about ten gene- provinces, Iraq was part of Persia.
rations of people. A closer examination of the The Prophet Mohammed preached in
characteristics of the rise and fall of great Arabia from A.D. 613 to 632, when he died.
nations may emphasise the possible signifi- In 633, the Arabs burst out of their desert
cance of the sequence of generations. peninsula, and simultaneously attacked the
Let us then attempt to examine the stages two super-powers. Within twenty years, the
in the lives of such powerful nations. Persian Empire had ceased to exist. Seventy
years after the death of the Prophet, the
IV Stage one. The outburst Arabs had established an empire extending
Again and again in history we find a small from the Atlantic to the plains of Northern
nation, treated as insignificant by its India and the frontiers of China.
contemporaries, suddenly emerging from its At the beginning of the thirteenth century,
homeland and overrunning large areas of the the Mongols were a group of savage tribes in
world. Prior to Philip (359-336 B.C.), Mace- the steppes of Mongolia. In 1211, Genghis
don had been an insignificant state to the Khan invaded China. By 1253, the Mongols
north of Greece. Persia was the great power had established an empire extending from
of the time, completely dominating the area Asia Minor to the China Sea, one of the
from Eastern Europe to India. Yet by 323 largest empires the world has ever known.
B.C., thirty-six years after the accession of The Arabs ruled the greater part of Spain
Philip, the Persian Empire had ceased to for 780 years, from 712 A.D. to 1492. (780
exist, and the Macedonian Empire extended years back in British history would take us to
from the Danube to India, including Egypt. 1196 and King Richard Cur de Lion.)
This amazing expansion may perhaps he During these eight centuries, there had been
attributed to the genius of Alexander the no Spanish nation, the petty kings of Aragon
Great, but this cannot have been the sole and Castile alone holding on in the
reason; for although after his death every- mountains.
thing went wrongthe Macedonian generals The agreement between Ferdinand and
fought one another and established rival Isabella and Christopher Columbus was
empiresMacedonian pre-eminence survi- signed immediately after the fall of Granada,
ved for 231 years. the last Arab kingdom in Spain, in 1492.
In the year A.D. 600, the world was divided Within fifty years, Cortez had conquered
between two superpower groups as it has Mexico, and Spain was the worlds greatest
been for the past fifty years between Soviet empire.
Russia and the West. The two powers were Examples of the sudden outbursts by
the eastern Roman Empire and the Persian which empires are born could be multiplied
Empire. The Arabs were then the despised indefinitely. These random illustrations must
and backward inhabitants of the Arabian suffice.
The Fate of Empires 5
their legal system. During the pre-eminence consists of more organised, disciplined and
of each culture, its distinctive characteristics professional campaigns.
are carried by it far and wide across the In other fields, the daring initiative of the
world. original conquerors is maintainedin
If the same nation were to retain its geographical exploration, for example:
domination indefinitely, its peculiar qualities pioneering new countries, penetrating new
would permanently characterise the whole forests, climbing unexplored mountains, and
human race. Under the system of empires sailing uncharted seas. The new nation is
each lasting for 250 years, the sovereign race confident, optimistic and perhaps contemp-
has time to spread its particular virtues far tuous of the decadent races which it has
and wide. Then, however, another people, subjugated.
with entirely different peculiarities, takes its The methods employed tend to be practical
place, and its virtues and accomplishments and experimental, both in government and
are likewise disseminated. By this system, in warfare, for they are not tied by centuries
each of the innumerable races of the world of tradition, as happens in ancient empires.
enjoys a period of greatness, during which its Moreover, the leaders are free to use their
peculiar qualities are placed at the service of own improvisations, not having studied
mankind. politics or tactics in schools or in textbooks.
To those who believe in the existence of
God, as the Ruler and Director of human IX U.S.A. in the stage of the pioneers
affairs, such a system may appear as a In the case of the United States of America,
manifestation of divine wisdom, tending the pioneering period did not consist of a
towards the slow and ultimate perfection of barbarian conquest of an effete civilisation,
humanity. but of the conquest of barbarian peoples.
Thus, viewed from the outside, every
VIII The course of empire example seems to be different. But viewed
The first stage of the life of a great nation, from the standpoint of the great nation,
therefore, after its outburst, is a period of every example seems to be similar.
amazing initiative, and almost incredible The United States arose suddenly as a new
enterprise, courage and hardihood. These nation, and its period of pioneering was
qualities, often in a very short time, produce spent in the conquest of a vast continent, not
a new and formidable nation. These early an ancient empire. Yet the subsequent life
victories, however, are won chiefly by history of the United States has followed the
reckless bravery and daring initiative. standard pattern which we shall attempt to
The ancient civilisation thus attacked will tracethe periods of the pioneers, of
have defended itself by its sophisticated commerce, of affluence, of intellectualism
weapons, and by its military organisation and of decadence.
and discipline. The barbarians quickly
appreciate the advantages of these military X Commercial expansion
methods and adopt them. As a result, the The conquest of vast areas of land and
second stage of expansion of the new empire their subjection to one government
The Fate of Empires 7
automatically acts as a stimulant to com- The present fashion for independence has
merce. Both merchants and goods can be produced great numbers of tiny states in the
exchanged over considerable distances. world, some of them consisting of only one
Moreover, if the empire be an extensive one, city or of a small island. This system is an
it will include a great variety of climates, insuperable obstacle to trade and co-
producing extremely varied products, which operation. The present European Economic
the different areas will wish to exchange with Community is an attempt to secure commer-
one another. cial cooperation among small independent
The speed of modern methods of trans- states over a large area, but the plan meets
portation tends to create in us the impress- with many difficulties, due to the mutual
sion that far-flung commerce is a modern jealousies of so many nations.
development, but this is not the case. Objects Even savage and militaristic empires
made in Ireland, Scandinavia and China promoted commerce, whether or not they
have been found in the graves or the ruins of intended to do so. The Mongols were some of
the Middle East, dating from 1,000 years the most brutal military conquerors in
before Christ. The means of transport were history, massacring the entire populations of
slower, but, when a great empire was in cities. Yet, in the thirteenth century, when
control, commerce was freed from the their empire extended from Peking to
innumerable shackles imposed upon it today Hungary, the caravan trade between China
by passports, import permits, customs, and Europe achieved a remarkable degree of
boycotts and political interference. prosperitythe whole journey was in the
The Roman Empire extended from Britain territory of one government.
to Syria and Egypt, a distance, in a direct In the eighth and ninth centuries, the
line, of perhaps 2,700 miles. A Roman caliphs of Baghdad achieved fabulous wealth
official, transferred from Britain to Syria, owing to the immense extent of their
might spend six months on the journey. Yet, territories, which constituted a single trade
throughout the whole distance, he would be bloc. The empire of the caliphs is now
travelling in the same country, with the same divided into some twenty-five separate
official language, the same laws, the same nations.
currency and the same administrative
system. Today, some twenty independent XI The pros and cons of empires
countries separate Britain from Syria, each In discussing the life-story of the typical
with its own government, its own laws, empire, we have digressed into a discussion
politics, customs fees, passports and of whether empires are useful or injurious to
currencies, making commercial co-operation mankind. We seem to have discovered that
almost impossible. And this process of empires have certain advantages, particu-
disintegration is still continuing. Even within larly in the field of commerce, and in the
the small areas of the modern European establishment of peace and security in vast
nations, provincial movements demanding areas of the globe. Perhaps we should also
secession or devolution tend further to include the spread of varied cultures to many
splinter the continent. races. The present infatuation for indepen-
8 The Fate of Empires
dence for ever smaller and smaller units will XIII The Age of Commerce
eventually doubtless be succeeded by new Let us now, however, return to the life-
international empires. story of our typical empire. We have already
The present attempts to create a European considered the age of outburst, when a little-
community may be regarded as a practical regarded people suddenly bursts on to the
endeavour to constitute a new super-power, world stage with a wild courage and energy.
in spite of the fragmentation resulting from Let us call it the Age of the Pioneers.
the craze for independence. If it succeeds, Then we saw that these new conquerors
some of the local independencies will have to acquired the sophisticated weapons of the
be sacrificed. If it fails, the same result may old empires, and adopted their regular
be attained by military conquest, or by the systems of military organisation and
partition of Europe between rival super- training. A great period of military expansion
powers. The inescapable conclusion seems, ensued, which we may call the Age of
however, to be that larger territorial units are Conquests. The conquests resulted in the
a benefit to commerce and to public stability, acquisition of vast territories under one
whether the broader territory be achieved by government, thereby automatically giving
voluntary association or by military action. rise to commercial prosperity. We may call
this the Age of Commerce.
XII Sea power The Age of Conquests, of course, overlaps
One of the more benevolent ways in which the Age of Commerce. The proud military
a super-power can promote both peace and traditions still hold sway and the great
commerce is by its command of the sea. armies guard the frontiers, but gradually the
From Waterloo to 1914, the British Navy desire to make money seems to gain hold of
commanded the seas of the world. Britain the public. During the military period, glory
grew rich, but she also made the Seas safe for and honour were the principal objects of
the commerce of all nations, and prevented ambition. To the merchant, such ideas are
major wars for 100 years. but empty words, which add nothing to the
Curiously enough, the question of sea bank balance.
power was never clearly distinguished, in
British politics during the last fifty years, XIV Art and luxury
from the question of imperial rule over other The wealth which seems, almost without
countries. In fact, the two subjects are effort, to pour into the country enables the
entirely distinct. Sea power does not offend commercial classes to grow immensely rich.
small countries, as does military occupation. How to spend all this money becomes a
If Britain had maintained her navy, with a problem to the wealthy business community.
few naval bases overseas in isolated islands, Art, architecture and luxury find rich
and had given independence to colonies patrons. Splendid municipal buildings and
which asked for it, the world might well be a wide streets lend dignity and beauty to the
more stable place today. In fact, however, the wealthy areas of great cities. The rich
navy was swept away in the popular outcry merchants build themselves palaces, and
against imperialism. money is invested in communications,
The Fate of Empires 9
highways, bridges, railways or hotels, the Age of Affluence silences the voice of
according to the varied patterns of the ages. duty. The object of the young and the
The first half of the Age of Commerce ambitious is no longer fame, honour or
appears to be peculiarly splendid. The service, but cash.
ancient virtues of courage, patriotism and Education undergoes the same gradual
devotion to duty are still in evidence. The transformation. No longer do schools aim at
nation is proud, united and full of self- producing brave patriots ready to serve their
confidence. Boys are still required, first of all, country. Parents and students alike seek the
to be manlyto ride, to shoot straight and to educational qualifications which will
tell the truth. (It is remarkable what command the highest salaries. The Arab
emphasis is placed, at this stage, on the moralist, Ghazali (1058-1111), complains in
manly virtue of truthfulness, for lying is these very same words of the lowering of
cowardicethe fear of facing up to the objectives in the declining Arab world of his
situation.) time. Students, he says, no longer attend
Boys schools are intentionally rough. Fru- college to acquire learning and virtue, but to
gal eating, hard living, breaking the ice to obtain those qualifications which will enable
have a bath and similar customs are aimed at them to grow rich. The same situation is
producing a strong, hardy and fearless breed everywhere evident among us in the West
of men. Duty is the word constantly drum- today.
med into the heads of young people.
The Age of Commerce is also marked by XVI High Noon
great enterprise in the exploration for new That which we may call the High Noon of
forms of wealth. Daring initiative is shown in the nation covers the period of transition
the search for profitable enterprises in far from the Age of Conquests to the Age of
corners of the earth, perpetuating to some Affluence: the age of Augustus in Rome, that
degree the adventurous courage of the Age of of Harun al-Rashid in Baghdad, of Sulaiman
Conquests. the Magnificent in the Ottoman Empire, or
of Queen Victoria in Britain. Perhaps we
XV The Age of Affluence might add the age of Woodrow Wilson in the
There does not appear to be any doubt that United States.
money is the agent which causes the decline All these periods reveal the same
of this strong, brave and self-confident characteristics. The immense wealth accu-
people. The decline in courage, enterprise mulated in the nation dazzles the onlookers.
and a sense of duty is, however, gradual. Enough of the ancient virtues of courage,
The first direction in which wealth injures energy and patriotism survive to enable the
the nation is a moral one. Money replaces state successfully to defend its frontiers. But,
honour and adventure as the objective of the beneath the surface, greed for money is
best young men. Moreover, men do not gradually replacing duty and public service.
normally seek to make money for their Indeed the change might be summarised as
country or their community, but for them- being from service to selfishness.
selves. Gradually, and almost imperceptibly,
10 The Fate of Empires
The ambition of the young, once engaged XIX The effects of intellectualism
in the pursuit of adventure and military There are so many things in human life
glory, and then in the desire for the which are not dreamt of in our popular
accumulation of wealth, now turns to the philosophy. The spread of knowledge seems
acquisition of academic honours. to be the most beneficial of human activities,
It is useful here to take note that almost all and yet every period of decline is character-
the pursuits followed with such passion rised by this expansion of intellectual
throughout the ages were in themselves activity. All the Athenians and strangers
good. The manly cult of hardihood, frank- which were there spent their time in nothing
ness and truthfulness, which characterised else, but either to tell or to hear some new
the Age of Conquests, produced many really thing is the description given in the Acts of
splendid heroes. the Apostles of the decline of Greek
The opening up of natural resources, and intellectualism.
the peaceful accumulation of wealth, which The Age of Intellect is accompanied by
marked the age of commercialism, appeared surprising advances in natural science. In the
to introduce new triumphs in civilisation, in ninth century, for example, in the age of
culture and in the arts. In the same way, the Mamun, the Arabs measured the circum-
vast expansion of the field of knowledge ference of the earth with remarkable
achieved by the Age of Intellect seemed to accuracy. Seven centuries were to pass
mark a new high-water mark of human before Western Europe discovered that the
progress. We cannot say that any of these world was not flat. Less than fifty years after
changes were good or bad. the amazing scientific discoveries under
The striking features in the pageant of Mamun, the Arab Empire collapsed. Won-
empire are: derful and beneficent as was the progress of
(a) the extraordinary exactitude with which science, it did not save the empire from
these stages have followed one another, in chaos.
empire after empire, over centuries or even The full flowering of Arab and Persian
millennia; and intellectualism did not occur until after their
(b) the fact that the successive changes imperial and political collapse. Thereafter
seem to represent mere changes in popular the intellectuals attained fresh triumphs in
fashionnew fads and fancies which sweep the academic field, but politically they
away public opinion without logical reason. became the abject servants of the often
At first, popular enthusiasm is devoted to illiterate rulers. When the Mongols conqu-
military glory, then to the accumulation of ered Persia in the thirteenth century, they
wealth and later to the acquisition of were themselves entirely uneducated and
academic fame. were obliged to depend wholly on native
Why could not all these legitimate, and Persian officials to administer the country
indeed beneficent, activities be carried on and to collect the revenue. They retained as
simultaneously, each of them in due modera- wazeer, or Prime Minister, one Rashid al-
tion? Yet this never seemed to happen. Din, a historian of international repute. Yet
12 The Fate of Empires
the Prime Minister, when speaking to the Thus we see that the cultivation of the
Mongol II Khan, was obliged to remain human intellect seems to be a magnificent
throughout the interview on his knees. At ideal, but only on condition that it does not
state banquets, the Prime Minister stood weaken unselfishness and human dedication
behind the Khans seat to wait upon him. If to service. Yet this, judging by historical
the Khan were in a good mood, he precedent, seems to be exactly what it does
occasionally passed his wazeer a piece of do. Perhaps it is not the intellectualism
food over his shoulder. which destroys the spirit of self-sacrificethe
As in the case of the Athenians, least we can say is that the two,
intellectualism leads to discussion, debate intellectualism and the loss of a sense of
and argument, such as is typical of the duty, appear simultaneously in the life-story
Western nations today. Debates in elected of the nation.
assemblies or local committees, in articles in Indeed it often appears in individuals, that
the Press or in interviews on television the head and the heart are natural rivals. The
endless and incessant talking. brilliant but cynical intellectual appears at
Men are interminably different, and the opposite end of the spectrum from the
intellectual arguments rarely lead to emotional self-sacrifice of the hero or the
agreement. Thus public affairs drift from bad martyr. Yet there are times when the perhaps
to worse, amid an unceasing cacophony of unsophisticated self-dedication of the hero is
argument. But this constant dedication to more essential than the sarcasms of the
discussion seems to destroy the power of clever.
action. Amid a Babel of talk, the ship drifts
on to the rocks. XXI Civil dissensions
Another remarkable and unexpected
XX The inadequacy of intellect symptom of national decline is the intensi-
Perhaps the most dangerous by-product of fication of internal political hatreds. One
the Age of Intellect is the unconscious would have expected that, when the survival
growth of the idea that the human brain can of the nation became precarious, political
solve the problems of the world. Even on the factions would drop their rivalry and stand
low level of practical affairs this is patently shoulder-to-shoulder to save their country.
untrue. Any small human activity, the local In the fourteenth century, the weakening
bowls club or the ladies luncheon club, empire of Byzantium was threatened, and
requires for its survival a measure of self- indeed dominated, by the Ottoman Turks.
sacrifice and service on the part of the The situation was so serious that one would
members. In a wider national sphere, the have expected every subject of Byzantium to
survival of the nation depends basically on abandon his personal interests and to stand
the loyalty and self-sacrifice of the citizens. with his compatriots in a last desperate
The impression that the situation can be attempt to save the country. The reverse
saved by mental cleverness, without unsel- occurred. The Byzantines spent the last fifty
fishness or human self-dedication, can only years of their history in fighting one another
lead to collapse. in repeated civil wars, until the Ottomans
The Fate of Empires 13
moved in and administered the coup de another, but simply in the differences
grce. between them.
Britain has been governed by an elected In the age of the first outburst and the
parliament for many centuries. In former subsequent Age of Conquests, the race is
years, however, the rival parties observed normally ethnically more or less
many unwritten laws. Neither party wished homogeneous. This state of affairs facilitates
to eliminate the other. All the members a feeling of solidarity and comradeship. But
referred to one another as honourable in the Ages of Commerce and Affluence,
gentlemen. But such courtesies have now every type of foreigner floods into the great
lapsed. Booing, shouting and loud noises city, the streets of which are reputed to be
have undermined the dignity of the House, paved with gold. As, in most cases, this great
and angry exchanges are more frequent. We city is also the capital of the empire, the
are fortunate if these rivalries are fought out cosmopolitan crowd at the seat of empire
in Parliament, but sometimes such hatreds exercises a political influence greatly in
are carried into the streets, or into industry excess of its relative numbers.
in the form of strikes, demonstrations, Second- or third-generation foreign
boycotts and similar activities. True to the immigrants may appear outwardly to be
normal course followed by nations in entirely assimilated, but they often constitute
decline, internal differences are not a weakness in two directions. First, their
reconciled in an attempt to save the nation. basic human nature often differs from that of
On the contrary, internal rivalries become the original imperial stock. If the earlier
more acute, as the nation becomes weaker. imperial race was stubborn and slow-
moving, the immigrants might come from
XXII The influx of foreigners more emotional races, thereby introducing
One of the oft-repeated phenomena of cracks and schisms into the national policies,
great empires is the influx of foreigners to even if all were equally loyal.
the capital city. Roman historians often Second, while the nation is still affluent, all
complain of the number of Asians and the diverse races may appear equally loyal.
Africans in Rome. Baghdad, in its prime in But in an acute emergency, the immigrants
the ninth century, was international in its will often be less willing to sacrifice their
populationPersians, Turks, Arabs, Arme- lives and their property than will be the
nians, Egyptians, Africans and Greeks original descendants of the founder race.
mingled in its streets. Third, the immigrants are liable to form
In London today, Cypriots, Greeks, communities of their own, protecting
Italians, Russians, Africans, Germans and primarily their own interests, and only in the
Indians jostle one another on the buses and second degree that of the nation as a whole.
in the underground, so that it sometimes Fourth, many of the foreign immigrants
seems difficult to find any British. The same will probably belong to races originally
applies to New York, perhaps even more so. conquered by and absorbed into the empire.
This problem does not consist in any While the empire is enjoying its High Noon
inferiority of one race as compared with of prosperity, all these people are proud and
14 The Fate of Empires
XXIV The Arab decline that, although Rome ruled the world, women
In the first half of the ninth century, ruled Rome. In the tenth century, a similar
Baghdad enjoyed its High Noon as the tendency was observable in the Arab Empire,
greatest and the richest city in the world. In the women demanding admission to the
861, however, the reigning Khalif (caliph), professions hitherto monopolised by men.
Mutawakkil, was murdered by his Turkish What, wrote the contemporary historian,
mercenaries, who set up a military dictator- Ibn Bessam, have the professions of clerk,
ship, which lasted for some thirty years. tax-collector or preacher to do with women?
During this period the empire fell apart, the These occupations have always been limited
various dominions and provinces each to men alone. Many women practised law,
assuming virtual independence and seeking while others obtained posts as university
its own interests. Baghdad, lately the capital professors. There was an agitation for the
of a vast empire, found its authority limited appointment of female judges, which,
to Iraq alone. however, does not appear to have succeeded.
The works of the contemporary historians Soon after this period, government and
of Baghdad in the early tenth century are still public order collapsed, and foreign invaders
available. They deeply deplored the overran the country. The resulting increase
degeneracy of the times in which they lived, in confusion and violence made it unsafe for
emphasising particularly the indifference to women to move unescorted in the streets,
religion, the increasing materialism and the with the result that this feminist movement
laxity of sexual morals. They lamented also collapsed.
the corruption of the officials of the The disorders following the military take-
government and the fact that politicians over in 861, and the loss of the empire, had
always seemed to amass large fortunes while played havoc with the economy. At such a
they were in office. moment, it might have been expected that
The historians commented bitterly on the everyone would redouble their efforts to save
extraordinary influence acquired by popular the country from bankruptcy, but nothing of
singers over young people, resulting in a the kind occurred. Instead, at this moment of
decline in sexual morality. The pop singers declining trade and financial stringency, the
of Baghdad accompanied their erotic songs people of Baghdad introduced a five-day
on the lute, an instrument resembling the week.
modern guitar. In the second half of the When I first read these contemporary
tenth century, as a result, much obscene descriptions of tenth-century Baghdad, I
sexual language came increasingly into use, could scarcely believe my eyes. I told myself
such as would not have been tolerated in an that this must be a joke! The descriptions
earlier age. Several khalifs issued orders might have been taken out of The Times
banning pop singers from the capital, but today. The resemblance of all the details was
within a few years they always returned. especially breathtakingthe break-up of the
An increase in the influence of women in empire, the abandonment of sexual morality,
public life has often been associated with na- the pop singers with their guitars, the entry
tional decline. The later Romans complained of women into the professions, the five-day
16 The Fate of Empires
week. I would not venture to attempt an with the hitherto invincible Mongols, the
explanation! There are so many mysteries descendants of Genghis Khan, who invaded
about human life which are far beyond our Syria. By defeating the Mongols and driving
comprehension. them out of Syria, the Mamelukes saved the
Mediterranean from the terrible fate which
XXV Political ideology had overtaken Persia. In 1291, the Mame-
Today we attach immense importance to lukes captured Acre, and put an end to the
the ideology of our internal politics. The Crusades.
Press and public media in the U.S.A. and From 1309 to 1341, the Mameluke Empire
Britain pour incessant scorn on any country was everywhere victorious and possessed the
the political institutions of which differ in finest army in the world. For the ensuing
any manner from our own idea of hundred years the wealth of the Mameluke
democracy. It is, therefore, interesting to Empire was fabulous, slowly leading to
note that the life-expectation of a great luxury, the relaxation of discipline and to
nation does not appear to be in any way decline, with ever more bitter internal
affected by the nature of its institutions. political rivalries. Finally the empire collap-
Past empires show almost every possible sed in 1517, as the result of military defeat
variation of political system, but all go by the Ottomans.
through the same procedure from the Age of The Mameluke government appears to us
Pioneers through Conquest, Commerce, utterly illogical and fantastic. The ruling
Affluence to decline and collapse. class was entirely recruited from young boys,
born in what is now Southern Russia. Every
XXVI The Mameluke Empire one of them was enlisted as a private soldier.
The empire of the Mamelukes of Egypt Even the sultans had begun life as private
provides a case in point, for it was one of the soldiers and had risen from the ranks. Yet
most exotic ever to be recorded in history. It this extraordinary political system resulted
is also exceptional in that it began on one in an empire which passed through all the
fixed day and ended on another, leaving no normal stages of conquest, commercialism,
doubt of its precise duration, which was 267 affluence and decline and which lasted
years. approximately the usual period of time.
In the first part of the thirteenth century,
Egypt and Syria were ruled by the Ayoubid XXVII The master race
sultans, the descendants of the family of The people of the great nations of the past
Saladin. Their army consisted of Mamelukes, seem normally to have imagined that their
slaves imported as boys from the Steppes pre-eminence would last for ever. Rome
and trained as professional soldiers. On 1st appeared to its citizens to be destined to be
May 1250, the Mamelukes mutinied, for all time the mistress of the world. The
murdered Turan Shah, the Ayoubid sultan, Abbasid Khalifs of Baghdad declared that
and became the rulers of his empire. God had appointed them to rule mankind
The first fifty years of the Mameluke until the day of judgement. Seventy years
Empire were marked by desperate fighting ago, many people in Britain believed that the
The Fate of Empires 17
empire would endure for ever. Although superiority seems to go hand-in-hand with
Hitler failed to achieve his objective, he the luxury resulting from wealth, in
declared that Germany would rule the world undermining the character of the dominant
for a thousand years. That sentiments like race.
these could be publicly expressed without
evoking derision shows that, in all ages, the XXVIII The welfare state
regular rise and fall of great nations has When the welfare state was first introduced
passed unperceived. The simplest statistics in Britain, it was hailed as a new high-water
prove the steady rotation of one nation after mark in the history of human development.
another at regular intervals. History, however, seems to suggest that the
The belief that their nation would rule the age of decline of a great nation is often a
world forever, naturally encouraged the period which shows a tendency to
citizens of the leading nation of any period to philanthropy and to sympathy for other
attribute their pre-eminence to hereditary races. This phase may not be contradictory
virtues. They carried in their blood, they to the feeling described in the previous
believed, qualities which constituted them a paragraph, that the dominant race has the
race of supermen, an illusion which inclined right to rule the world. For the citizens of the
them to the employment of cheap foreign great nation enjoy the role of Lady Bountiful.
labour (or slaves) to perform menial tasks As long as it retains its status of leadership,
and to engage foreign mercenaries to fight the imperial people are glad to be generous,
their battles or to sail their ships. even if slightly condescending. The rights of
These poorer peoples were only too happy citizenship are generously bestowed on every
to migrate to the wealthy cities of the empire, race, even those formerly subject, and the
and thereby, as we have seen, to adulterate equality of mankind is proclaimed. The
the close-knit, homogeneous character of the Roman Empire passed through this phase,
conquering race. The latter unconsciously when equal citizenship was thrown open to
assumed that they would always be the all peoples, such provincials even becoming
leaders of mankind, relaxed their energies, senators and emperors.
and spent an increasing part of their time in The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally,
leisure, amusement or sport. perhaps even more, generous. During the
In recent years, the idea has spread widely Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had
in the West that progress will be automatic constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth
without effort, that everyone will continue to century the empire was completely
grow richer and richer and that every year cosmopolitan.
will show a rise in the standard of living. We State assistance to the young and the poor
have not drawn from history the obvious was equally generous. University students
conclusion that material success is the result received government grants to cover their
of courage, endurance and hard worka expenses while they were receiving higher
conclusion nevertheless obvious from the education. The State likewise offered free
history of the meteoric rise of our own medical treatment to the poor. The first free
ancestors. This self-assurance of its own public hospital was opened in Baghdad in
18 The Fate of Empires
the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and reason for human wars, in which both sides
under his son, Mamun, free public hospitals claimed to be fighting for the true God, but
sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain the absurd narrowness of human
to what is now Pakistan. conceptions should not blind us to the fact
The impression that it will always be that, very often, both sides believed their
automatically rich causes the declining campaigns to have a moral background.
empire to spend lavishly on its own Genghis Khan, one of the most brutal of all
benevolence, until such time as the economy conquerors, claimed that God had delegated
collapses, the universities are closed and the him the duty to exterminate the decadent
hospitals fall into ruin. races of the civilised world. Thus the Age of
It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the Conquests often had some kind of religious
welfare state as the high-water mark of atmosphere, which implied heroic self-
human attainment. It may merely prove to sacrifice for the cause.
be one more regular milestone in the life- But this spirit of dedication was slowly
story of an ageing and decrepit empire. eroded in the Age of Commerce by the action
of money. People make money for
XXIX Religion themselves, not for their country. Thus
Historians of periods of decadence often periods of affluence gradually dissolved the
refer to a decline in religion, but, if we spirit of service, which had caused the rise of
extend our investigation over a period the imperial races.
covering the Assyrians (859-612 B.C.) to our In due course, selfishness permeated the
own times, we have to interpret religion in a community, the coherence of which was
very broad sense. Some such definition as weakened until disintegration was
the human feeling that there is something, threatened. Then, as we have seen, came the
some invisible Power, apart from material period of pessimism with the accompanying
objects, which controls human life and the spirit of frivolity and sensual indulgence, by-
natural world. products of despair. It was inevitable at such
We are probably too narrow and times that men should look back yearningly
contemptuous in our interpretation of idol to the days of religion, when the spirit of
worship. The people of ancient civilisations self-sacrifice was still strong enough to make
were as sensible as we are, and would men ready to give and to serve, rather than
scarcely have been so foolish as to worship to snatch.
sticks and stones fashioned by their own But while despair might permeate the
hands. The idol was for them merely a greater part of the nation, others achieved a
symbol, and represented an unknown, new realisation of the fact that only readi-
spiritual reality, which controlled the lives of ness for self-sacrifice could enable a commu-
men and demanded human obedience to its nity to survive. Some of the greatest saints in
moral precepts. history lived in times of national decadence,
We all know only too well that minor raising the banner of duty and service
differences in the human visualisation of this against the flood of depravity and despair.
Spirit frequently became the ostensible
The Fate of Empires 19
In this manner, at the height of vice and intermarried with the local population and a
frivolity the seeds of religious revival are new race resulted, though it sometimes
quietly sown. After, perhaps, several retained an old name. The barbarian
generations (or even centuries) of suffering, invasions of the Roman Empire probably
the impoverished nation has been purged of provide the example best known today in the
its selfishness and its love of money, religion West. Others were the Arab conquests of
regains its sway and a new era sets in. It is Spain, North Africa and Persia, the Turkish
good for me that I have been afflicted, said conquests of the Ottoman Empire, or even
the psalmist, that I might learn Thy the Norman Conquest of England.
Statutes. In all such cases, the conquered countries
were originally fully inhabited and the inva-
XXX New combinations ders were armies, which ultimately settled
We have traced the rise of an obscure race down and married, and produced new races.
to fame, through the stages of conquest, In our times, there are few nomadic
commercialism, affluence, and intellectu- conquerors left in the world, who could
alism, to disintegration, decadence and invade more settled countries bringing their
despair. We suggested that the dominant tents and flocks with them. But ease of travel
race at any given time imparts its leading has resulted in an equal, or probably an even
characteristics to the world around, being in greater, intermixture of populations. The
due course succeeded by another empire. By extreme bitterness of modern internal poli-
this means, we speculated, many successive tical struggles produces a constant flow of
races succeeded one another as super- migrants from their native countries to
powers, and in turn bequeathed their others, where the social institutions suit
peculiar qualities to mankind at large. them better.
But the objection may here be raised that The vicissitudes of trade and business
some day the time will come when all the similarly result in many persons moving to
races of the world will in turn have enjoyed other countries, at first intending to return,
their period of domination and have but ultimately settling down in their new
collapsed again in decadence. When the countries.
whole human race has reached the stage of The population of Britain has been
decadence, where will new energetic con- constantly changing, particularly in the last
quering races be found? sixty years, owing to the influx of immigrants
The answer is at first partially obscured by from Europe, Asia and Africa, and the exit of
our modern habit of dividing the human race British citizens to the Dominions and the
into nations, which we seem to regard as United States. The latter is, of course, the
water-tight compartments, an error respon- most obvious example of the constant rise of
sible for innumerable misunderstandings. new nations, and of the transformation of
In earlier times, warlike nomadic nations the ethnic content of old nations through this
invaded the territories of decadent peoples modern nomadism.
and settled there. In due course, they
20 The Fate of Empires