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Prob Intro

1. Intro / Examples

2. Set Theory

3. Experiments and Sample Spaces

4. Denition of Probability

5. Finite Sample Spaces

6. Counting Techniques

7. Applications of Counting Techniques

8. Conditional Probability

9. Bayes Theorem

1

1.1 Intro / Examples

nomena:

Deterministic

Probabilistic

2

1.1 Intro / Examples

Deterministic Models

is h(t) = h0 16t2.

ing 3% account. At time t, its worth $1000e.03t.

3

1.1 Intro / Examples

4

1.1 Intro / Examples

equal probability of being a persons birthday (ignore

Feb 29). Then. . .

than 5050 that there will be a match.

5

1.1 Intro / Examples

the highest probability of being landed on is Illinois

Ave.

Pr(full house) 0.00144

Pr(ush) 0.00198

6

1.1 Intro / Examples

could have outperformed most market analysts during

the past year.

Whats the probability that BOTH are boys?

know that theres at least one boy. Then Pr(BB) =

1/3.

7

1.1 Intro / Examples

6. Vietnam Lottery

Behind one of three doors is a car; behind the other

two are goats. You pick door A. Monty Hall opens

door B and reveals a goat. Monty oers you a chance

to switch to door C. What should you do?

8

1.1 Intro / Examples

Working Denitions

dom variation in systems. (Well spend about 40% of

our time on this.)

clusions about the population from which the sample

was taken. (60% of our time.)

9

1.2 Set Theory

of a set are called elements.

Notation:

A, B, C, . . . for sets; a, b, c, . . . for elements

for membership, e.g., x A

/A

U is the universal set (i.e., everything)

is the empty set.

10

1.2 Set Theory

Examples:

A = {1, 2, . . . , 10}. 2 A, 49

/ A.

B = {basketball, baseball}

C = {x|0 x 1} (| means such that)

D = {x|x2 = 9} = {3} (either is ne)

E = {x|x , x2 = 1} = ( is the real line)

11

1.2 Set Theory

set B then A is a subset of B, i.e., A B.

Properties:

A; A U ; A A

A B and B C (implies) A C

{a, b, c} = {b, c, a}.

12

1.2 Set Theory

A {x|x U and x

/ A}.

B}.

13

1.2 Set Theory

Example:

and B = {a, b, c}. Then

A = {consonants}

A B = {a}

A B = {a, b, c, e, i, o, u}

exclusive).

14

1.2 Set Theory

Denitions:

Minus: A B A B

AB (A B) (B A) = (A B) (A B)

in A. A is nite if |A| < .

15

1.2 Set Theory

Examples:

16

1.2 Set Theory

Laws of Operation:

=A

1. Complement Law: A A = U , A A = , A

2. Commutative: A B = B A, A B = B A

3. DeMorgans: A B = A B, A B = A B

4. Associative: A (B C) = (A B) C,

A (B C) = (A B) C

17

1.2 Set Theory

5. Distributive: A (B C) = (A B) (A C),

A (B C) = (A B) (A C)

ways.

18

1.3 Experiments

periment E is the set of all possible outcomes of E.

Its usually denoted by S or .

19

1.3 Experiments

Examples:

20

1.3 Experiments

Hs and T s.

S3 = {t|t 0}.

21

1.3 Experiments

Thus, any subset of S is an event.

ber occurs, then A1 = {2, 4, 6}, i.e., when the die is

tossed, we get 2 or 4 or 6.

S is an event of S (something happens)

22

1.3 Experiments

(opposite) event.

occurs)

are events.

23

1.3 Experiments

= {HHT, HT H, T HH}

B2 = no T s observed = {HHH}

C2 = rst coin is H

= {HHH, HHT, HT H, HT T }

Then

= {HHT, HT H, T HH, HHH}

A2 C2 = {HHT, HT H}

24

1.4 Probability

Probability Basics

the prob that A will occur, i.e., Pr(A)?

prob that H will come up?

25

1.4 Probability

times, where n is very large, wed expect about 1/2

of the tosses to be Hs.

Total # of Hs out of n tosses

1/2.

n

each individual outcome has prob 1/6. Then Pr(1, 2) =

1/3.

26

1.4 Probability

number Pr(A), called the probability of A, satisfy-

ing the following axioms:

Die. Pr(S) = Pr(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) = 1.

27

1.4 Probability

Example: Pr(1 or 2) = Pr(1) + Pr(2) = 1/6 + 1/6 =

1/3.

(i.e., Ai Aj = for i = j). Then

Pr Ai = Pr(Ai).

i=1 i=1

28

1.4 Probability

S = {H, T H, T T H, T T T H, . . .}.

Then

1 = Pr(S) = Pr Ai = Pr(Ai).

i=1 i=1

29

1.4 Probability

Theorem 1: Pr() = 0.

disjoint. So Axiom (3) implies

A = . Example: Pick a random number betw. 0 and

1.

30

1.4 Probability

Proof:

= Pr(A A)

= Pr(A) + Pr(A) (A A = ; Axiom (3)).

one minus the probability that it wont rain.

31

1.4 Probability

A B and A B are disjoint. Thus

and so

= Pr(A) + Pr(B) Pr(A B) (by ()).

32

1.4 Probability

(Subtract Pr(A B) to avoid double-counting.)

in which A B = .

33

1.4 Probability

40% chance of colder weather

10% chance of rain and colder weather

80% chance of rain or colder weather.

= 0.8 0.4 + 0.1 = 0.5.

34

1.4 Probability

Pr(A B C)

= Pr(A) + Pr(B) + Pr(C)

Pr(A B) Pr(A C) Pr(B C)

+Pr(A B C)

to Pr(A1 A2 An). Its called the principle of

inclusion-exclusion.

35

1.4 Probability

cream (I), and 40% enjoy music (M ). Also, 15%

J and I, 30% J and M , 10% I and M , and 5% do

all three. Find the prob that a random resident will

engage in at least one of the three activities.

P (J I M )

= P (J) + P (I) + P (M )

P (J I) P (J M ) P (I M )

+P (J I M )

= .75 + .20 + .40 .15 .30 .10 + .05 = .85.

36

1.4 Probability

P (J I M ) + P (J I M ) + P (J I M )

= .35 + 0 + .05 = .40.

from the center and building out.

37

1.4 Probability

Proof:

= Pr(A) + Pr(A B)

Pr(A).

occurs; so the Theorem makes intuitive sense.

38

1.5 Finite Sample Spaces

i.e., B = {aj1 , aj2 , . . . , ajr }, where the jis represent r

r

indices from {1, 2, . . . , n}. Then Pr(B) = i=1 Pr(aji ).

each object has the same prob of being chosen.

39

1.5 Finite Sample Spaces

yellow. Pick one card at random.

40

1.5 Finite Sample Spaces

sample space in which all outcomes are equally likely.

Pr(a1) = Pr(a2).

41

1.5 Finite Sample Spaces

|A| # elements in A

Pr(A) = = .

|S| # elements in S

Pr(A) = 4/6.

42

1.5 Finite Sample Spaces

w.p. 1/36):

2,1 2,2 2,6

..

6,1 6,2 6,6

Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1

Prob 36 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1

36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

43

1.6 Counting Techniques

from a SSS.

Multiplication Rule

Addition Rule

Permutations

Combinations

44

1.6 Counting Techniques

Multiplication Rule

(b) Regardless of the way in which the rst operation

was performed, the second can be performed in n2

ways.

is n1n2.

45

1.6 Counting Techniques

to go from B to C. Then the you can go from A to

C (via B) in 12 ways.

(3, 2) = (2, 3).) Answer is 36.

46

1.6 Counting Techniques

placement and care about order (i.e., (Q, 7) =

(7, Q). How many ways can you do this? Answer:

52 51 = 2652.

2 w/o repl.

# ways to pick 2 reds 21 1

Pr(A) = = = .

# ways to pick 2 sox 10 9 45

47

1.6 Counting Techniques

87 28

Pr(B) = = .

10 9 45

Pr(C) = 1 Pr(C)

= 1 Pr(A B)

= 1 Pr(A) Pr(B) (A and B disjoint)

= 16/45.

48

1.6 Counting Techniques

more than 2 operations.

49

1.6 Counting Techniques

Addition Rule

Can use method B in nB ways.

If only one method can be used, you have nA + nB

ways of doing so.

berry or oatmeal) or a bagel (sesame, plain, salt), but

not both. 2 + 3 = 5 choices.

50

1.6 Counting Techniques

Permutations

order is a permutation of the n symbols.

1,2,3? Answer: 6 ways 123, 132, 213, 231, 312,

321.

51

1.6 Counting Techniques

Find the # of possible batting orders. Answer: 9! =

362880.

52

1.6 Counting Techniques

dierent symbols (each used at most once) is called

the # of permutations of n things taken r-at-a-

time,

n!

Pn,r ().

(n r)!

Note that 0! = 1 and Pn,n = n!.

from a, b, c, d? Ans: P4,2 = 4!/2! = 12 ab, ac, ad,

ba, bc, bd, ca, cb, cd, da, db, dc.

53

1.6 Counting Techniques

= n(n 1)(n 2) (n r + 1)

n(n 1) (n r + 1)(n r) 2 1

=

(n r) 2 1

n!

= .

(n r)!

54

1.6 Counting Techniques

of a batting order?

n = 9 players, r = 4 positions.

55

1.6 Counting Techniques

batting rst?

equiv to choosing 3 players from the remaining 8.

equally likely to bat rst. Thus, 3024/9 = 336.

56

1.6 Counting Techniques

made from the numbers 1,2,. . . ,9. . .

60480.

9 9 9 = 96 = 531441.

57

1.6 Counting Techniques

Combinations

to choose r out of n objects without regard to order,

i.e., count the number of dierent subsets of these n

objects that contain exactly r objects.

actly 2 elements? (Order isnt important.)

58

1.6 Counting Techniques

with n elements is called the number of combinations

of n things taken r-at-a-time.

n

Notation: or Cn,r (read as n choose r). These

r

are also called binomial coecients.

59

1.6 Counting Techniques

(b, a, c).

a-time is always as least as large as the number of

combinations. In fact,. . .

60

1.6 Counting Techniques

choosing a combination and then putting the ele-

ments in order, i.e.,

n! n

r!

=

(n r)! r

So

n

n!

= .

r (n r)!r!

n

n n n n n

= ,

= = 1, = = n.

r nr 0 n 1 n1

61

1.6 Counting Techniques

Binomial Theorem:

n

n

(x + y)n = xiy ni

i=0 i

This is where Pascals comes from!

n

n = 2n .

i=0 i

Proof:

n

n

2n = (1 + 1)n = 1i1ni.

i=0 i

62

1.6 Counting Techniques

ways can the coach choose the starting 5?

12 12!

= = 792.

5 5!7!

How many of the 792 starting line-ups include him?

11 11!

= = 330.

4 4!7!

(Smith gets one of the ve positions for free; there

are now 4 left to be lled by the remaining 11 players.)

63

1.6 Counting Techniques

arrangements.

R B R R B B R R R B R B

12

Answer: .

7

64

1.7 Counting Applications

Hypergeometric problems

Birthday problem

Poker probabilities

Multinomial coecients

65

1.7 Counting Applications

Hypergeometric Distribution

(# ways to choose k 1s)(choose n k 2s)

=

# ways

to choose n out of a + b

a

b

k nk

= (the hypergeometric distrn).

a + b

n

66

1.7 Counting Applications

w/o replacement.

15 10

3 4

Pr(exactly 3 reds are picked) =

25

7

67

1.7 Counting Applications

approach the problem!

in random order. Find. . .

(b) Pr(2 end marbles arent both W)

(c) Pr(2 Ws arent side by side)

68

1.7 Counting Applications

|A| 48 1

|A| = 2!4! = 48 Pr(A) = = = .

|S| 720 15

69

1.7 Counting Applications

or . . . or RRRRWW

(# ways to insert Ws into pair of slots)

(# ways to insert Rs into remaining slots)

= 5 2! 4! = 240.

|B| 240 1

Pr(B) = = = .

|S| 720 3

an easier way. . .

70

1.7 Counting Applications

do the Ws occupy? Now let

6

Clearly, |S| =

= 15.

2

for A to occur, |A| = 1 Pr(A) = |A|/|S| = 1/15.

(b) Pr(A) = 14/15.

(c) |B| = 5 Pr(B) = 5/15 = 1/3.

71

1.7 Counting Applications

Birthday Problem

have the same birthday. (Ignore Feb. 29, and assume

that all 365 days have equal prob.)

birthday), and note that |S| = (365)n.

72

1.7 Counting Applications

(365)(364) (365 n + 1)

Pr(A) =

(365)n

364 363 365 n + 1

= 1

365 365 365

We want

364 363 365 n + 1

Pr(A) = 1 1

365 365 365

73

1.7 Counting Applications

74

1.7 Counting Applications

Poker Problems

52

# of possible hands is |S| = = 2, 598, 960.

5

Terminology:

rank = 2, 3, . . . , Q, K, A,

suit = , , ,

75

1.7 Counting Applications

13

Select 2 ranks (e.g., A, 3). Can do this ways.

2

4

Select 2 suits for rst pair (e.g., , ). ways.

2

4

Select 2 suits for second pair (e.g., , ). ways.

2

Select remaining card to complete the hand. 44 ways.

13 4 4

|2 pairs| = 44 = 123, 552

2 2 2

123, 552

Pr(2 pairs) = 0.0475.

2, 598, 960

76

1.7 Counting Applications

e.g., A, A, 3, 3, 3

ways.

4

Select 2 suits for pair (e.g., , ). ways.

2

4

Select 3 suits for 3-of-a-kind (e.g., , , ). ways.

3

4 4

|full house| = 13 12 = 3744

2 3

3744

Pr(full house) = 0.00144.

2, 598, 960

77

1.7 Counting Applications

4

Select a suit. ways.

1

13

Select 5 cards from that suit. ways.

5

5148

Pr(ush) = 0.00198.

2, 598, 960

78

1.7 Counting Applications

Select

a starting point for the straight (A, 2, 3, . . . , 10).

10

ways.

1

10 45

Pr(straight) = 0.00394.

2, 598, 960

79

1.7 Counting Applications

Select a suit. 4 ways.

40

Pr(straight ush) = 0.0000154.

2, 598, 960

80

1.7 Counting Applications

Multinomial Coecients

Example:

n1 blue sox, n2 reds. # of assortments is

n + n2

1 (binomial coecients).

n1

k

Generalization (for k types of objects): n = i=1 ni

81

1.7 Counting Applications

ranged?

# perms of 11 letters 11!

= = 34, 650.

(# ms)!(# ps)!(# is)!(# ss)! 1!2!4!4!

82

1.8 Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

Denition

Properties

Independence

83

1.8 Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

Pr(A) = 1/2, Pr(B) = 5/6.

A given B is

2 |A B|

Pr(A|B) = =

5 |B|

So the prob of A depends on the info that you have!

The info that B occurs allows us to regard B as a

new, restricted sample space. And. . .

84

1.8 Conditional Probability

|A B| |A B|/|S| Pr(A B)

Pr(A|B) = = = .

|B| |B|/|S| Pr(B)

given B is Pr(A|B) Pr(A B)/Pr(B).

(If B occurs, theres no chance that A can also occur.)

case, makes no sense to consider Pr(A|B).

85

1.8 Conditional Probability

B: {2, 3}

2 4 2 1

Pr(A) = Pr(3)+ +Pr(11) = + + + = .

36 36 36 2

1 2 1

Pr(B) = + = .

36 36 12

Pr(A B) Pr(3) 2/36

Pr(A|B) = = = = 2/3.

Pr(B) Pr(B) 1/12

86

1.8 Conditional Probability

4 3 1

Pr(C) = Pr(AB) = Pr(A)Pr(B|A) = = .

12 11 11

= Pr(A)Pr(B|A) + Pr(A)Pr(B|A)

4 3 8 4 1

= + = .

12 11 12 11 3

Could you have gotten this result w/o thinking?

87

1.8 Conditional Probability

Whats the prob that BOTH are boys?

C: Both are boys = {BB}.

D: At least 1 is a boy. = {GB, BG, BB}.

Pr(C D) Pr(C)

Pr(C|D) = = = 1/3.

Pr(D) Pr(D)

(My intuition was 1/2 the wrong answer! The

problem was that we didnt know whether D meant

the rst or second kid.)

88

1.8 Conditional Probability

(1) 0 Pr(A|B) 1.

(2) Pr(S|B) = 1.

Pr(A2|B).

Pr Ai

B = Pr(Ai|B).

i=1 i=1

89

1.8 Conditional Probability

dependent.

B: Coin lands on H.

Pr(A)Pr(B).

0.5, then Pr(rains and H) = 0.1.

90

1.8 Conditional Probability

event.

to be indep.

{2, 4}, so Pr(A) = 1/2, Pr(B) = 2/3, Pr(AB) = 1/3.

91

1.8 Conditional Probability

indep i Pr(A|B) = Pr(A).

Pr(A B)/Pr(B) = Pr(A).

doesnt depend on whether or not B occurs.

92

1.8 Conditional Probability

= Pr(A) Pr(A)Pr(B) (A, B indep)

= Pr(A)[1 Pr(B)] = Pr(A)Pr(B).

93

1.8 Conditional Probability

cant be indep and disjt at the same time.

Pr(A)Pr(B). Thus A, B not indep. Similarly, indep

implies not disjt.

94

1.8 Conditional Probability

(a) Pr(A B C) = Pr(A)Pr(B)Pr(C)

and

(b) All pairs must be indep:

Pr(A B) = Pr(A)Pr(B)

Pr(A C) = Pr(A)Pr(C)

Pr(B C) = Pr(B)Pr(C)

95

1.8 Conditional Probability

A = {1, 2, 3, 4}, B = {1, 5, 6, 7}, C = {1, 2, 3, 8}.

1/8, so (a) is satised. However, (b) is not. . .

96

1.8 Conditional Probability

A = {1, 2}, B = {1, 3}, C = {1, 4}. A B = A C =

B C = A B C = {1}.

A, C and B, C. So (b) is OK. But (a) isnt. . .

97

1.8 Conditional Probability

Pr(A1 Ak ) = Pr(A1) Pr(Ak ) and

all subsets of {A1, . . . , Ak } are indep.

such that the outcome of one trial is indep of the

outcomes of the other trials.

98

1.8 Conditional Probability

other two coins since theyre indep of the 1st.

1/4.

vidual probs.

99

1.8 Conditional Probability

is indep of the others).

= Pr(T T H)

T

n1

= Pr(T )Pr(T ) Pr(T ) Pr(H) = 1/2 n.

n1

Pr(H eventually) = pn = 1.

n=1

100

1.9 Bayes Theorem

Bayes Theorem

Partitions

Bayes Theorem

Examples

101

1.9 Bayes Theorem

space into disjoint, yet all-encompassing subsets.

of the sample space S if

(1) A1, A2, . . . , An are disjoint.

n

(2) i=1 Ai = S.

(3) Pr(Ai) > 0 for all i.

102

1.9 Bayes Theorem

one of the Ais occurs.

of the letters.

S, and B is some arbitrary event. Then

n

B = (Ai B).

i=1

103

1.9 Bayes Theorem

n

Pr(B) = Pr (Ai B)

i=1

n

= Pr(Ai B) (A1, A2, . . . , An are disjoint)

i=1

n

= Pr(Ai)Pr(B|Ai) (by defn of condl prob).

i=1

which we saw in the last module.

104

1.9 Bayes Theorem

S and B is any event, then

Pr(Ai B) Pr(Ai)Pr(B|Ai)

Pr(Ai|B) = = n .

Pr(B) j=1 Pr(Aj )Pr(B|Aj )

The Pr(Ai|B)s are posterior probabilities (after B).

looking denominator.

105

1.9 Bayes Theorem

Pr(Any defendent brought to trial is guilty) = 0.99.

In any trial,

Pr(Jury acquits if defendent is innocent) = 0.95.

Pr(Jury convicts if defendent is guilty) = 0.95.

106

1.9 Bayes Theorem

acquittal. Since the partition is {I, G}, Bayes

Pr(I)Pr(A|I)

Pr(I|A) =

Pr(I)Pr(A|I) + Pr(G)Pr(A|G)

(0.01)(0.95)

=

(0.01)(0.95) + (0.99)(0.05)

= 0.161.

the prior probs.

107

1.9 Bayes Theorem

1, 1/4 from Factory 2, and 1/4 from Factory 3.

2% of Factory 2s items are defective.

4% of Factory 3s items are defective.

prob it comes from Factory 1. [Answer should be

< 1/2 since bad items favor Factory 3.]

108

1.9 Bayes Theorem

tition is {F1, F2, F3}.

Pr(F1)Pr(D|F1)

Pr(F1|D) = 3

j=1 Pr(Fj )Pr(D|Fj )

(0.5)(0.02)

=

(0.5)(0.02) + (0.25)(0.02) + (0.25)(0.04)

= 0.4.

109

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