Solution Hayashi Cap 1

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Solution Hayashi Cap 1

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Chapter 2

Section 2.1

1. For n sufficiently large, |zn | < , which means Prob(|zn | > ) = 0.

2. The equality in the hint implies that limn E[(zn z)0 (zn z)] = 0 if and only if limn E[(znk

zk )2 ] = 0 for all k.

Section 2.2

6. Because there is a one-to-one mapping between (gi1 , . . . , g1 ) and (zi1 , . . . , z1 ) (i.e., the

value of (gi1 , . . . , g1 ) can be calculated from the value of (zi1 , . . . , z1 ) and vice versa),

E(gi | gi1 , . . . , g1 ) = E(gi | zi1 , . . . , z1 ) = E(zi zi1 | zi1 , . . . , z1 ) = 0.

7.

E(gi | gi1 , . . . , g2 )

= E[E(i i1 | i1 , . . . , 1 ) | gi1 , . . . , g2 ] (by Law of Iterated Expectations)

= E[i1 E(i | i1 , . . . , 1 ) | gi1 , . . . , g2 ] (by linearity of conditional expectations)

= 0 (since {i } is independent white noise).

8. Let xi ri1 . Since (xi1 , . . . , x2 ) (i 3) has less information than (yi2 , . . . , y1 ), we have

E(xi | xi1 , . . . , x2 ) = E[E(xi | yi2 , . . . , y1 ) | xi1 , . . . , x2 ] for i 3.

It is easy to show by the Law of Iterated Expectations that E(xi | yi2 , . . . , y1 ) = 0.

Section 2.3

1. We have shown on several occasions that E(i | xi ) = 0 is stronger than E(xi i ) = 0.

2(a) No, E(2i ) does not need to exist or to be finite.

3. S = E(2i xi x0i ) = E[E(2i xi x0i | xi )] = E[E(2i | xi )xi x0i ]. The second equality is by Law of

Total Expectations. The third equality is by the linearity of conditional expectations.

4. You can use Lemma 2.3(a) to claim, for example, plim(b )0 Sxx (b ) = 0 because

(b )0 Sxx (b ) is a continuous function of b and Sxx .

b to calculate the estimated residual bi , (2.3.1) becomes

n n

1X 2 1X 2 b )0 g + (

b )0 Sxx (

bi i = 2( b ).

n i=1 n i=1 i

You can use exactly the same argument to claim that the second and the third terms on

the RHS converge to zero in probability.

1

Section 2.4

1. Yes, SE (bk ) converges to zero in probability. Consequently, the confidence interval shrinks

to a point.

b = (1/)2 Avar(b). The standard error of

2. By the delta method, Avar() b is by definition the

square root of 1/n times the estimated asymptotic variance.

3. Inspection of the formula (2.4.2) for W reveals that the numerical value of W is invariant

to F. So, a fortiori, the finite-sample distribution and the asymptotic distribution are not

affected.

Section 2.5

1. No, because (2.5.1) cannot be calculated by those sample means alone.

2. First, (2.5.4) involves multiplication by n, which is required

because it is an asymptotic

variance (the variance of the limiting distribution of n times a sampling error). Second,

the middle matrix B houses estimated errors, rather than error variances.

Section 2.6

5. From the equaion in the hint, we can derive:

1

nR2 = nK 1

(K 1)F.

n + n (K 1)F

2.4(b). So the factor multiplying (K 1)F on the RHS converges to 1 in probability. Then

by Lemma 2.4(c), the asymptotic distribution of the RHS is the same as that of (K 1)F ,

which is chi-squared.

Section 2.8

1. The proof is a routine use of the Law of Total Expectations.

E(zi i )

= E[E(zi i | xi )] (by Law of Total Expectations)

= E[zi E(i | xi )] (by linearity of conditional expectations)

= 0.

2. The error may be conditionally heteroskedastic, but that doesnt matter asymptotically be-

cause all we need from this regression is a consistent estimate of .

Section 2.9

1.

E[(x)]

= E{E[(x) | x]} (by Law of Total Expectations)

= E{(x) E[ | x]} (by linearity of conditional expectations)

= 0 (since E( | x) = E[y E(y | x) | x] = E(y | x) E(y | x) = 0).

2

2. Use (2.9.6) to calculate E* (i | i1 , . . . , im ). (I am using E* for the least squares projection

operator.) It is zero. For E* (i | 1, i1 , . . . , im ), use (2.9.7). For white noise processes,

= 0 and = 0. So E* (i | 1, i1 , . . . , im ) = 0. The conditional expectation, as opposed

to the least squares projection, may not be zero. Example 2.4 provides an example.

e) = 0. So

Cov(ex, y) = Cov(e x, + 0 x x). Also, E(y) 0 E(e

e + ) = Var(e x) = . Combine these

results with (2.9.7).

4(b) .

4(c) The answer is uncertain. For the sake of concreteness, assume {yi , xi , zi } is i.i.d. Then

the asymptotic variance of the estimate of from part (a) is 1 2 0 1

xx E(i xi xi )xx . The

asymptotic variance of the estimate of from part (b) is xx E[(zi + i ) xi xi ]1

1 0 2 0

xx . For

concreteness, strengthen the orthogonality of xi to (i , zi ) by the condition that xi is

independent of (i , zi ). Then these two expressions for the asymptotic variance becomes:

E(2i )1 0 2 1 2

xx and E[(zi + i ) ]xx . Since i is not necessarily orthogonal to zi , E(i ) may

0 2

or may not be greater than E[(zi + i ) ].

Section 2.10

1. The last three terms on the RHS of the equation in the hint all converges in probability to 2 .

0

n+2 n+2 n+2

dn = , ,..., .

n1 n2 np

Then the Box-Pierce /Q can be written as c0 xn and the modified Q as d0n xn . Clearly,

an c dn converges to zero as n .

Section 2.11

2. You have proved this for general cases in review question 3 of Section 2.9.

3. We can now drop the assumption of constant real rates from the hypothesis of efficient markets.

Testing market efficiency then is equivalent to testing whether the inflation forecast error

is an m.d.s.

4. If inflation and interest rates are in fractions, then the OLS estimate of the intercept gets

divided by 100. The OLS estimate of the interest rate coefficient remains the same. If the

inflation rate is in percent per month and the interest rate is in percent per year, then both

the intercept and the interest rate coefficient is deflated by a factor of about 12.

5. For the third element of gt , you cant use the linearity of conditional expectations as in

(2.11.7).

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