28 September 2017

HEADLINES

IPL buys more than 500,000 t at over $40 higher than last awards

Multiple inquiries in Latin America; several lots prilled urea booked at $255-260 fob Baltic/Black Sea

Ethiopia tender for 550,000 t urea scrapped this week but new tender issued

Egyptian urea trades again at $294-302 fob

AOA to close a sales tender for urea on Saturday, 30 September

OUTLOOK
Slightly softer

FERTECON PRICE SERVICE

UREA KEY PRICES

28 September 21 September 14 September

Urea fob Yuzhnyy, prilled ($/t) 253-260 250 232-235

Urea fob Middle East (exc US), granular ($/t) 272-274 255-290 230-249
Urea fob Egypt, granular ($/t) 294-302 294-302 255-270
Urea fob NOLA, granular ($/st) 229-241 235-260 219-229

UREA KEY PRICES CHART

$/t fob Yuzhnyy prilled NOLA granular (ston)

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100
21 September 2017
50
14 15 16 17

Fertecons urea prices are available to analyse and download immediately after publishing via this link.
 28 September

UREA PRICE INDICATIONS ALL PRICES IN US$

28 September 21 September 14 September

BULK UREA prilled

Baltic Sea fob 255-261 246-250 230

Yuzhnyy fob 253-260 250 232-235
East Europe fob 290 260-265 240
Middle East fob 272-300 270-275 230-249
SE Asia fob 245 240 220-222
China fob 268-270 260-265 240-245
South Europe cfr duty unpaid 263-265 257-260 245-247

BULK UREA granular

Baltic fob 262-273 243-273 235-245

Black Sea fob 262-273 263-273 238-241
Middle East fob excl US 272-274 255-290 230-249
Middle East fob US netbacks 216-232 227-256 210-223
Middle East fob ^ 216-274 227-290 210-249
Middle East fob spot excluding Iran# 272-274 255-290 230-249
Caribbean fob 231-274 238-274 220-242
SE Asia fob 266-275 260-271 234-238
North Africa fob 294-308 294-302 246-276
Algeria fob 300-308 300 246-276
Egypt fob 294-302 294-302 255-270
China fob 278-280 270-275 240-250
SE Asia cfr 280-290 274-290 247-257
Brazil cfr 284-295 285-295 260-263
US ston NOLA 229-241 235-260 219-229
FERTECON PRICE DEFINITION

^ all business * no recent known business ** price adjusted # price for FIX

NB: All prices refer to most recent concluded business or latest competitive offers. Prices are net of credit or other terms.

NB: The Yuzhnyy price includes tonnes being shipped from Nikolayev. The cfr Brazil price and US ston NOLA do not include
sales of Chinese material

The full history of Fertecons urea prices is available to view and download by clicking here.

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 28 September

FREIGHT

UREA FREIGHT INDICATIONS $/T

Route Cargo size (t) Latest rate

China East Coast India 55-60,000 15-17
Yuzhnyy West Coast India 55-60,000 23-25
Black Sea Brazil 25-30,000 21-22
Black Sea West Coast Mexico 20-25,000 25-30
Baltic Brazil (excluding St Pete) 25-30,000 22-23
Baltic West Coast Mexico (excluding St Pete) 25,000 19-20
Algeria Brazil 25,000-30,000 17
Middle East West Coast India 40,000 13-14
Middle East Thailand bulk 25-30,000 14-15
Middle East NOLA 40-45,000 19-21
NB: All rates indicated are based on averages. Exact rates will depend on port loading and discharge rates

EXCHANGE RATES

EXCHANGE RATES LOCAL CURRENCY:US$

28/09/2017 21/09/2017 28/09/2017

Euro 0.85056 0.83501 0.89012

Pound Sterling 0.74577 0.73919 0.77020
Turkish Lira 3.56448 3.48456 2.97592
Rupee India 65.7383 64.3703 66.4529
Real Brazil 3.17773 3.13032 3.23823
China RMB 6.63846 6.57321 6.66853

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 28 September

FERTECON TENDER SERVICE

UREA RECENT AND ACTIVE TENDERS

Tender
Country Holder Product 000 t Shipments Remarks
close
30 Award 30K Gavilon at around $215 cfr Topo and
Mexico GF Urea G 23/6 Mid July Guaymas with re-export from US
40
Urea P 20 4-5 Granular awarded to Dreymoor at 165.50 fob
Belarus* Grodno July Klaipeda. Prills awarded at 157 fob Klaipeda.
Urea G 30 July

Within 12 Bids to remain valid 90 days

Malawi SFFRFM Urea 45 30/6
wks
Central PCS covered at a reported price below $220 cfr
Incofe Urea G 25-35 13/7 August
America
Algeria* AOA Urea G 40 14/7 August 25kt sold at $200 fob
445,000 t LOIs issued at counter offer Comzest
India MMTC Urea 20/07 By 1 Sept
$203.06 cfr wc
Egypt* Abu Qir Urea G 25 22/08 1-h Sept Sold at $223 fob
Urea G Sold 20kt prills at $240 fob and granular $257 fob
Egypt* Abu Qir 20 each 06/09 2-h Sept
&P to Dreymoor
Lowest offer $241.22 cfr wc, $245.50 cfr ec. LOIs
India IPL Urea 08/09 by 23/10
issued for 327,000 t.
Urea G Sold 10kt granular at $266 fob and 30kt prills $240
Egypt* Abu Qir 20 P, 10 G 12/09 1-h Oct
&P fob
Ethiopia EABC Urea 550 13/09 Scrapped
Belarus* Grodno Urea P 10 18/9 Sept/Oct Award at 206 fob Klaipeda
591kt awarded $285 cfr west coast and $284.66
India IPL Urea 25/09 By 8/11 east coast

Urea G 20 15kt granular awarded at $294

Egypt* Abu Qir 26/9 2-half Oct
Urea P 20 20kt prills awarded at $273
Egypt* Helwan Urea G 20 27/9 Oct
AOA* Algeria Urea G 20-25 30/9 Oct
Nov
Ethiopia EABC Urea 550 26/10
onward
G = granular P = prilled b = bagged *sales tender

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 28 September

ANALYSIS
It has certainly been a topsy turvy week for urea but, whilst some softening took place, the result in India this week was largely
read as positive. Securing 591,000 t took care of a lot of long positions in the Middle East and is thought to have mopped up any
length that was there for October. The cfr price secured was over $40 higher than what was paid earlier this month. Any
availability from China which was limited was also taken together with residual tonnes from Iran. There has also been a sale from
Yuzhnyy and this, together with a cargo will take care of a lot of October availability although OPZ should restart next week. This
might bring some relief for Turkish buyers but they were this week showing a willingness to pay higher levels; a netback of $282 fob
Egypt was paid and whilst still lower than last done at $294 fob the cfr levels are getting closer to the fobs. French prices also edged
up with 275 fca paid this week.

We may however see some correction in Egypt; the market is generally of the opinion that current values are too high and cannot
find any traction in Europe. Added to this AOA appears to be running again and will offer the first 20,000 t this weekend. The
additional supply plus tonnes from Nigeria that still need to find a home and traders offering lower and lower prices in Brazil might
all combine to see a correction in Egypt next week.

Brazil seemed to be concerned about an anticipated flood of urea vessels amidst already high import levels/inventory and a
resistance to higher prices. It could be however that India has taken away some of that supply and India could well return next
month for November cargo. The US is unlikely to draw on any more tonnes as the NOLA price remains under pressure and trades
well below the international market.

One area of concern however, a possible flood of tonnes from China, does not appear to be a major issue today and if prices
correct downwards, there is even less likelihood of a significant increase in exports for Q4.

So there is some uncertainty and some correction could be seen but at the moment, no collapse in price is anticipated.

MARKETS
EUROPE

FRANCE
Whilst still lagging behind last traded fob in Egypt, prices in France continue to move up with sales this week reported as high as
275 fca and offers in the French Bay up to 277.

Helm is shipping 20,000 t from Egypt to two French Bay ports.

The FRI Marlin arrived into La Pallice 20 September with 3,000 t urea loaded at Ghent. The Longvan arrived a few days later on 23
September, discharging 5,819 t urea loaded at Klaipeda.

The Hunzedijk is due to arrive into Bordeaux 30 September with 3,990 t granular urea loaded at Arzew, Algeria.

The Navin Kestrel, also loaded at Arzew, is expected to arrive at Port la Nouvelle 30 September with 6,400 t granular urea.

The Johanne is scheduled to arrive into Saint Malo 2 October with 3,880 t urea loaded at Muuga, Estonia.

AFRICA

ETHIOPIA
EABC will retender for the 550,000 t urea sought in its scrapped 13 September purchase tender.

The new tender, again for 550,000 t urea, will close 26 October for shipment November onwards.

MIDDLE EAST

TURKEY
Igsas has purchased 6,000 t urea from Dreymoor at $304-305 cfr duty paid, reflecting about $282 fob Egypt.

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 28 September

A freight inquiry has been circulating to load 12,500 t from Bandar Abbas for Iskenderun.

SOUTHERN ASIA

INDIA
IPL closed a tender 25 September for an unspecified quantity of urea for shipment by 8 November. Bids were valid until 28
September. The lowest offer came from Transagri at $285 cfr west coast, and Aries at $284.66 cfr east coast, for shipment from
load ports by 8 November. This marked a significant increase on the last tender; LOIs were awarded at $241.22 cfr wc and $245.50
cfr ec. IPL then invited all those who offered at around $290 cfr west or east coast for negotiations on 26 September. A counter
was given at $285 cfr WC1 and $284.66 cfr EC1.

IPL has issued awards for 591,000 t following Mondays tender at $285 cfr west coast and $284.66 east coast.

Supplier/origin 000 t Discharge port

Aries/China 63 Gangavaram
63 Knapatnam
Transagri/Iran 10 Kandla
Koch/Oman 44 Mundra
42 Tuna
Ameropa/ME
48 Mundra
Amber/Oman 35 Tuna
China 50 Karaikal
CHS/Middle East 42 Rozi
Comzest/Iran 40 Mundra

Fertrade/Middle Mangalore
East 42
Dreymoor/Yuzhnyy 52 Pipavav
Midgulf/China 60 Vizag
Total 591

Please note that the Fertrade award was mistakenly attributed to cargo sourced from Iran in an earlier supplement. This cargo will
come elsewhere in the Middle East.

The full list of offers was as follows:

000 t 000 t $/t cfr Discharge port

Supplier
optional

Transagri 10 285.00 Kandla

60 291.00 Mundra
295.00 Knapatnam
Aries 126 284.66 Gangavaram
289.66 Knapatnam
Koch 41.9 286 Mundra
60 291.8 EC1
Comzest 40 287.40 WC1
60 293.70 Kandla
290.00 Gangavaram, Karaikal, Tuticorin

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 28 September

Amber 60 288.00 Mundra, Kandla, Pipavav

295 Gangavaram
296.00 Kakinada, Vizag, Karaikal
Ameropa 42 286.77 Mundra
42 297.77 Kandla
CHS Europa 45 290.13 Kandla/Mundra
Dreymoor 172 296.69 Gangavaram
297.79 Vizag/Knapatnam
298.39 Karaikal
301.69 Tuticorin
291.25 Pipavav
291.45 Hazira/Mundra
291.60 N Mangalore
291.95 Tuna
Fertrade 60 294.00 Knapatnam
292.00 Mundra
Swiss Singapore 60 296.40 Mundra, Pipavava
295.50 Gangavaram, Karaikal
Fertisul 50 299.00 Gangavaram
299.95 Knapatnam, Karaikal, Kakinada
Sinochem 50 30 299.96 Knapatnam
Continental 60 301.00 Gangavaram
301.95 Knapatnam, Karaikal, Kakinada
Midgulf 60 330 Knapatnam, Karaikal, Kakinada
328.00 Tuna
Total 1039 150

There was also an offer submitted by Muntajat for 30,000 t out of Qatar at $300 fob.

With August figures included and estimates going through to the year end, we have tried to project the shortfall through to the
year end. It is largely dependent on how much inventory the government wants to build. One report suggests that the current
government does not want the inventory to slide below 1.5 million t. The closing inventory at the end of 2016 was 1.7 million t. If
this is the case, based on our estimates of production and sales there could be as much as one million tonnes still to be purchased
following awards this week of just under 600,000 t. To this effect therefore we may see another tender by mid-October.

In a surprise move, the government has allowed both RCF and NFL to import urea for 3 months effective from yesterday, 26
September.

August sales were reported at 2.98 million tonnes with a cumulative figure of 12.231 million t since the start of April which is about
3.5% higher than April August 2016.

The August production figure at 2.01 million t brings the cumulative figure to 9.64 million t, down just 2% on the prior year.

The closing stock at the end of August was 1.271 million t, slightly down on the 1.337 million at the same point last year.

In August, 468,000 t were imported bringing the total to 2,750,000 t since April which is slightly down on the April-August total last
year of 3,248,000 t.

INDIA: UREA BALANCE (million t)

Production Sales
16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18

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 28 September

April 1.74 1.8 0.98 0.92

May 1.92 1.85 1.92 2.37
June 2.0 1.9 2.84 3.0
July 2.032 2.0 2.975 2.9
Aug 2.181 2.01 3.111 2.98
Sept 2.057 2.592
Kharif 11.93 14.42
Oct 2.106 1.73
Nov 2.102 2.688
Dec 2.158 3.544
Jan 2.011 2.78
Feb 1.917 1.942
March 1.963 2.506
Rabi 12.257 15.19
Total 24.187 29.61

Urea balance sheet

(million t)
August-December

Estimated opening stock 1 Aug 1.40

Estimated production 10.4

Imports 1.77

Estimated supply 13.57

Estimated offtake 13.48

Estimated closing stock 30 October 0.09

Estimated offtake based on provisional sales figures for August at 2.98 million tonnes, as well as estimates for September-December
at around 10. 5 million t.

Estimated production estimates for September through December in line with last year.

Imports basis 445,000 t from the MMTC tender, 327,000 t from the IPL tender and around 1 million t from Omifco.

Against awards made in the earlier IPL tender which closed 8 September tender, Amber has replaced the Pen Harmony with the
American Bulker and will load in Pakistan again and not Oman.

IPL awards, 8 September tender:

Supplier/origin 000 t Discharge port Vessel

Amber/Oman 30 Gangavaram American Bulker
Pakistan 30 Kakinada Baltic Cove

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 28 September

60 Tuna Mahnam
Comzest/Iran 45 Mundra Bavand
42 Mundra
25 Kandla Behdokht
Eastern Kandla Roshak
Commodity/Iran 35
Transagri/Iran 60 Kandla Hamgam
Total 327

PAKISTAN
According to the latest NFDC data, urea offtake in August was 948,000 t, an increase of 65% over August 2016. This brings the total
so far for the Kharif season (April-August) to 3,118,000 t, an increase of almost 30%.

Urea production in August was 515,000 t. Exports were reported at 67,000 t.

Supply for the Kharif season as a whole is estimated at 4,492,000 t including an opening stock of 1,489,000 t together with
3,003,000 t domestic production. Offtake is estimated at 3,518,000 t and the NFDC reports the estimated opening balance for the
start of the Rabi season to be 732,000 t. Exports between April and August totalled 246,000 t.

As for the outlook for the Rabi season, total urea availability is estimated at 3,632,000 t with demand at 3,200,000 t. The NFDC
however states that following a decision by the ECC, there will be export of about 300,000 t and the balance inventory therefore
should be 132,000 t.

SRI LANKA
Importers are pressing the Sri Lankan Government to raise the local price ceiling on urea, which is currently set at 2,500 rupees/bag

This is equivalent to around $265 cfr LC 180 days well below the current market rate.

EASTERN ASIA

SOUTH KOREA
Pungnong closed a tender today, 28 September for 3,000 t granular urea for October shipment.

SOUTHEAST ASIA

MYANMAR
Thai and Chinese August trade data shows 99,000 t urea exports/re-exports entered Myanmar.

This takes known supply of urea into Myanmar in the first eight months of the year to 318,000 t.

THAILAND
Thailand imported nearly 305,000 t urea in August, pushing the total for the first eight months of the year to 1.985 million t up
19% on urea imports January-August 2016.

In August, the main suppliers were (000 t) Saudi Arabia 128, Qatar 89, Kuwait 54, Malaysia 30.

Urea re-exports in August were 37,500 t, taking the total for the period January-August 2017 to 109,000 t. Of this, 75,800 t is shown
going to Myanmar. (Source GTT)

VIETNAM
Domestic prices have risen strongly for the second week in a row with granular urea now trading at around 7000 dong/kg.

Importers are now asking 7100-7200 d/kg for new Malaysian arrivals roughly US$ 290 per t cfr for duty free origin.

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 28 September

Sales of Pusri prilled urea are put in the range $260-265 cfr bulk, but new offers are said to be much higher at $280 cfr and above.

OCEANIA

NEW ZEALAND
August urea imports were 32,850 t, with almost 31,000 t of the total sourced from Saudi Arabia. (Source: GTT)

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
Pressure from the absence of domestic retail demand seems to have prevailed in the NOLA barge market this week. Despite India
taking over 500,000 t at higher prices in the recent tender, traders appear to have lost confidence in the NOLA market and seized
their opportunity to take profit on earlier purchases. Prices moved steadily lower throughout the week but saw a big decline
Wednesday when $229/ston was concluded. No significant support level had appeared at press time and there were reports offers
falling into the low-mid $220s.

Interior demand remained slow and unable to support replacement costs out of NOLA. Terminal prices slipped lower this week but
remained mostly nominal as buyers kept to the side lines. Most warehouses moved down by about $10 from last week, not yet
fully reflecting the drop seen in NOLA barge prices.

Rain across much of Minnesota in the past week is postponing harvest and thus fall application demand. Trades in the Twin Cities
were reported at $255-265/ston fob this week, down from $270-280/ston last week. Other quotes were heard as high as
$270/ston.

Tulsa prices also moved lower, trading around $270/ston fob from $280-285/ston last week. Winter wheat planting is progressing
slowly due to wet fields and preplant urea demand has been accordingly sluggish.

Koch is heard to be closing in on new production from their Enid facility and some output is expected if not by end September
certainly in early October. The Borger ammonia plant restarted early in week and the company is reportedly expected urea
production to resume by the end of the week.

At this price level, buyers are likely to stick to hand-to-mouth purchases this fall and put off building inventories until closer to
spring. Prices are liable to slip again before yearend as the US market continues to adapt to new domestic production capacity.

UREA IMPORTS BY ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL DATE (000)

Shipper/origin Origin Granular Prills Vessel name Discharge port ETA

October
Sabic Saudi Arabia 34 Mykonos Dawn NOLA 13-Oct
PotashCorp Trinidad 6 Balsa 92 Baltimore 3 Oct
CHS? Qatar 50 Kp Albatross NOLA 15-Oct
PhosAgro Russia 12 ER Bordeaux NOLA
Sabic Saudi Arabia 62 Flag Lama NOLA 3 Oct
EuroChem Lithuania 10 Amstel Falcon NOLA 7 Oct
Koch Qatar 52 Sbi Hydra Wilmington 2 Oct
Bahrain 48 Sage Caledonia Portland 15 Oct
Total October 252 22
November
CHS? Koch? Qatar 49 Leo Ocean NOLA 2 Nov

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 28 September

TFI numbers show a 39% increase in urea production in the FY ending 30 June 2016 at 4,470,000 ston. June production was
reported at 468,000 ston, down 6% on May but up 56% from June 2016.

LATIN AMERICA

BRAZIL
Prices have covered a wide range this week but some downward pressure was noted from one or two traders seemingly looking to
liquidate tonnes.

At the beginning of the week it was reported that $295 cfr had been repeated and that a part cargo may have been booked at
$300. Nitron then sold about 30,000 t granular urea to Rio Grande to several parties at $288-291 cfr. Another sale to Piratini was
reported at $290 cfr.

Buyers then reported seeing offers at $284 cfr and some traders said they were even willing to sell at $280 cfr.

Urea arrivals October:

Vessel Name Shipper Origin Tonnes Arrival date Port

Ocean Crow Ameropa China 20,000 3 Oct Paranagua
Bulk Chile Trammo UAE 35,000 1 Oct Paranagua
Strategic Venture* EuroChem Tuapse, Russia 24,500 16 Oct Paranagua
Star Pisces Mosaic et al Qatar 22,000 8 Oct Santos
CS Caprice Trammo/Fertipar Ust Luga, Russia 11,495 5 Oct Itaqui
AP Dubrava Helm/Fertipar Nigeria 19,000 5 Oct Tubarao
Ilia Yara Qatar 44,000 7 Oct Rio Grande
Polo Uglish Fitco Algeria 8,000 2 Oct Porto Alegre
Genco Spirit Fitco Algeria 8,000 13 Oct Porto Alegre
*combi with NPKs

CHILE
SQM and Anagra are still said to be trying to source granular urea but it seems a purchase is dependent on the higher prices on
offer today being accepted in the domestic market.

A vessel of approximately 25,000 t is loading in Jose, Venezuela this week which has yet to be sold

ECUADOR
Nitron is believed to have covered Agripacs requirement for granular and prilled urea, AS and potash.

MEXICO
Keytrade has sold 25,000 t prilled urea at $285 cfr two discharge ports. This will be shipped from the Black Sea and freight is around
$31-32.

Tepeyac is said to have two cargoes bought from Iran now but traders are finding it difficult to find freight, Helm has been
repeatedly in the market for a cargo satisfying a sale that was reported earlier to Isaosa.

Gavilon is said to have a cargo coming to the west coast for Pacifex from China and Nitron is shipping an earlier sale to Tepeyac,
Fertiquim and possibly others from China.

SUPPLIERS
EUROPE

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 28 September

CROATIA
Petrokemija Kutina has sold 5-10,000 t prilled urea at $290 fob for prilled.

Ameropa has been in the freight market for 3,700 t out of Sibenik for Castellon, Spain for 25-28 September load.

EURASIA

UKRAINE
OPZ hopes to restart one ammonia and one urea line early October after signing a new tolling agreement for gas. Inventory at the
port is to be cleared through a sale to Dreymoor that is thought to be loading on a panamax for India early October together with
tonnes from Dniepro. Keytrade is also loading 25,000 t for Mexico.

Some tonnes have also been moved to the domestic market but the focus in October will probably be on export as the domestic
market is now very quiet and could remain like this until the end of the year.

Koch is in the freight market for 7,000 t to Ravenna, Italy loading 7-9 October. Another trader was looking for freight for 13,000 t
out of Yuzhnyy for Conakry, Guinea.

BELARUS
Grodno has no granular urea available for October because of maintenance work being carried out. There is a possibility of a tender
for prilled urea for October although the producer is almost sold out through domestic sales. The current price target is in excess of
$260 reflecting sales elsewhere in the Baltic and Egypt.

RUSSIA
Prilled sales have been agreed this week in the mid $250s low $260s fob Baltic with $255-260 secured for prills out of the Black
Sea. Traders however were reporting problems repeating these prices in Latin America as the week progressed; offers reflecign
$245 fob and even $240 were reported.

Kemerovo no new business has been reported. The turnaround is complete and production restarted with 25-30,000 t prilled
urea offered for October. Tonnes were on offer at $260 fob.

Berezniki/Perm sold 25,000 t prilled urea in several small lots to Latin America at prices reflecting high $250s fob Riga for October
shipment.

The producer will take a two-week turnaround at Perm in October leaving approximately 15,000 t to place for October.

PhosAgro sold 15,000 t prilled urea in the low $260s fob Baltic; part of combination cargo for October shipment to Latin America.
The producer is indicating $280 fob Baltic for granular.

Novgorod Agronova is reported to have sold a combo cargo urea and AN to Brazil with 10,000 t prilled urea sold at $255-260 fob
Baltic.

EuroChem has sold 5,000 t prilled urea for October loading at $260 fob Black Sea. The producer has 20-25,000 t granular left to
place for October which may be Baltic or Black Sea. This tonnage was reported on offer at $275 fob.

Mendeleyevsk the producer is sold out for October.

KUAZ Helm has sold 10,000 t prilled urea into Turkey reflecting just below $250 fob Black Sea.

TOAZ Dreymoor is reported to be loading 30,000 t this week destined to east coast Mexico or possibly another Latin destination
such as Ecuador.

Nitron is also offering a 30,000 t cargo but for 2-half October loading.

BALTIC LOADINGS (000 t)

Plant Prodn Buyer/Destination Sales $/t fob

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September
Kemerovo 25 Dreymoor 14
Unknown destination, small lots 11 Above $200 fob
Perm 30 Europe 30 high $180s fob
Berezniki 30 Latin America 20 high $180s fob
Africa 5
A Cherepovets 65 West Africa 25 $183 fob
Vietnam 15

Incofe 10 low-mid $180s fob

PhosAgro granular 40 Latam/ two lots 40 $210 fob

TOAZ 25 25 formula
Novgorod 30 Ameropa/Latin America 15 $184 fob
EuroChem G 65 Northern Europe 40 $185-190 fob
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland 10 $190-193 fob
EuroChem P 10 Fertica/ Central America 10 $190 fob
Salavat G 28 tender 15
Salavat P 7 Dreymoor 4 $175 fob
EuroChem 3 high $170s fob
Mendeleyevsk 75 EuroChem/ 25 formula

Trammo/Brazil 17.5 formula

Nitron/ 10 Low $190s fob

Total 390 279.5

AFRICA

ALGERIA
AOA will close a sales tender on Saturday, 30 September for 20-25,000 t granular urea for 5-10 October load. AOA is informing
customers this is fresh production, so it is now presumed at least one line is operating.

AOA is said to have scrapped its sales tender last week for 20,000 t offered from inventory. Reports now suggest that the cargo is
not in perfect condition and some traders are looking to place the cargo with a buyer that will take the poorer quality.

Loadings for Sorfert

Vessel Shipper/destination tonnes

September 48,000
BBC Magellan Villagarcia Spain 4,000
Longfjord Trammo/Sines - Portugal 4,000
Emma Janneke Seville - Spain 4,000
SDS Wind France - Sete 6,000

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 28 September

Genco Spirit Brazil 30,000

Hunzedijk Bordeaux, France 4,200
Kristella Waterford, Ireland 5,500

EGYPT
Mopco has sold 10,000 t granular urea at $302 fob for 1-half November shipment.

Abu Qir closed its tender 26 September, for 20,000 t each prilled and granular urea for October shipment. It sold 15,000t of
granular urea at $294 fob, apparently in small lots, and the full 20,000 t prills to one trader at $272-3 fob. The granular price is $8
down on the $302 last achieved whilst the prilled price is up $33 on the $240 achieved on 12 September.

Helwan closed a tender 27 September for 20,000 t for October shipment.

NIGERIA
Last weeks sale of 30,000 t for 1-half October shipment at $285 fob was to Ameropa and will be shipped to Latin America.

Indorama continues to push for prices in the high $290s fob for the remaining October cargo but despite aggressive freights, prices
in Brazil today are dissuading traders from committing at this level.

MIDDLE EAST

MIDDLE EAST GRANULAR UREA LOADINGS SEPTEMBER (000 t)

Qatar 370
CHS/Brazil 50
Thailand 80
Yara/Brazil 44
Koch/Brazil 30
Ameropa/Brazil 40
South Africa 25
USA (KP Albatros) 50
USA (Leo Ocean) 49
Saudi Arabia 370
Trader/Brazil 35
Thailand 60
USA 60
USA (Mykonos Dawn) 34
New Zealand 30
Australia 60
Bangladesh 35
Africa 75
Kuwait 80
Nitron/Argentina & Uruguay 40
Ameropa/Brazil 40

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Bahrain 50
Trader/East Africa(Tanzania) 40
Fertil 150
Nitron/Argentina & Uruguay 40
Trammo/Brazil 35
ETG/Africa 25
Oman 120
Quantum/India 30
Koch/Brazil 40
Quantum/Nitron - Brazil 30
1077

Middle East granular prices this week reflect sales into India in the low mid $270s fob.

BAHRAIN/KUWAIT
PIC this week was said to be offering its late October cargo at $280 fob.

The purchase two weeks ago for October at $255 fob is understood to have been taken by Liven but possibly placed in India this
week through another trader.

OMAN
Nitron will ship the 30,000 t it bought earlier from Quantum to Brazil.

SAUDI ARABIA
Sabic has sold 25,000 t prilled urea to Africa for October shipment at $300 fob. Granular availability is sold out.

Safco 4, 1,073,000 t/y granular urea went down for turnaround earlier this week and will be out for three months whilst they carry
out the usual maintenance works and some energy optimisation work.

SOUTHERN ASIA

PAKISTAN
Amber has now fixed the American Bulker to take another 30,000 t from Pakistan covering sales in India.

EASTERN ASIA

CHINA
Prilled urea was sold to traders to cover Indian tender awards at around the $268-270 fob level. Granular urea is around $280 fob.
Keytrade bought 35,000 t granular this week at close to $280 fob.

Local prices firmed early in the week in the expectation that there would be big volume sold into India but when only around
250,000 t was fixed for India prices fell back and today producers in Shandong are asking 1650 Rmb/t ex works but trading is lower
around 1620-1630 Rmb/t. An eight-day holiday starts this weekend so there will not be much new activity until business resumes 9
October. Production remains fairly low, limited by turnarounds, environmental controls and in some places coal shortages, also due
to environmental restrictions. However, demand from some industrial users is cut for the same reason and this is generally a slow
period for urea demand so the market appears to be roughly balanced. Prices have been pushed higher by raw material costs and a
stronger Rmb and are well above what would have been guessed three months ago

August urea exports were 248,684 t, down 75% y-o-y from 1,004,861 t. January through August, China exported 3,336,144 t urea,
less than half (-51%) the 6,783,051 t reported the first eight months of last year.

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 28 September

During this period, the main markets for Chinese urea exports were (000 t) South Korea 485, India 452, Mexico 341, Myanmar 242,
Australia 200, the United States 184, Djibouti 145, Chile 118, North Korea 114, Malaysia 105, Japan 97, Taiwan 90, the Philippines
87, Vietnam 82, and Indonesia 77. (Source: CCS Information Center)

SOUTHEAST ASIA

INDONESIA
Kaltim hopes to restart its Kaltim 5 urea plant by mid-October.

Figures published 27 September by Pupuk Indonesia show urea stocks across its four lines are at 1.387 million t, the highest figure
so far this year.

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES.
Latest reports suggest that CF is not currently looking at moving tonnes off shore.

One or two traders are looking at taking small volumes as re-exports from barges to destinations in the Caribbean with no big
volume available.

LATIN AMERICA

VENEZUELA
Jose has restarted one urea line and there was talk of the second also coming up shortly.

There is a vessel of about 25,000 t loading this week for Chile.

FEEDSTOCK
QUICK GLANCE (CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK)

TTF: 17.70 (up) Brent: $57.90 (up) Henry Hub (day-ahead): $2.97 (down)

WESTERN EUROPE

NETHERLANDS
The Dutch TTF day-ahead price closed at 17.70/MWh on 27 September up from 17.38/MWh on 20 September, according to the
EEX.

This increase in the TTF day-ahead price has mainly come on the back of a decline in stocks at the Norg natural gas storage site.

A price of 17.70/MWh equates to $6.13/mmBtu at the exchange rate of /$ 1:1.18155 on 27 September. In September so far, the
TTF day-ahead average is estimated at $6.03/mmBtu, against the $5.51/mmBtu in August, and compared with $5.07/mmBtu in July
and $4.96/mmBtu in June.

The average six-month ICE futures price for TTF for Oct 2017-Mar 2018 is 18.03/MWh on 27 September, and equating to
$6.24/mmBtu using the /$ exchange rate of 1:1.18155 on 27 September.

UNITED KINGDOM
The NBP day-ahead price closed at 45.70 p/therm on 27 September up from 45.40 p/therm on 20 September. A price of 45.70
p/therm equates to $6.15/mmBtu at the /$ exchange rate of 1:1.34574 from 27 September.

The October 2017 contract on ICE natural gas futures for the NBP closed at 46.32 p/therm on 27 September up from 44.50
p/therm on 20 September. The average 6-month forward strip (Oct 2017-Mar 2018) is 50.04 p/therm, which equates to
$6.73/mmBtu at the /$ exchange rate of 1:1.34574 from 27 September.

OTHER WESTERN EUROPE

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 28 September

The Brent crude oil contract for November 2017 settled at $57.90/bbl on 27 September up from $56.29/bbl on 20 September. The
average price for the 3-month strip (Nov 2017-Jan 2018) is $57.61/bbl compared with $55.97/bbl a week before, while the 12-
month average (Nov 2017-Nov 2018) is $56.89/bbl against $55.44/bbl.

Crude oil prices have been higher in the past couple of weeks on a reported decline in inventories and healthy demand, which are
expected to provide a short-term squeeze.

In its September Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA is forecasting Brent crude oil prices to average $51.07/bbl in 2017
(down slightly from $50.71/bbl in the August report) and $51.58/bbl in 2018 (flat from the prior report). Meanwhile, the annual
average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in 2017 and 2018 are expected to average roughly $2/bbl less than Brent prices. The
EIA is currently projecting quarterly average Brent spot prices to average roughly $50/bbl until the end of 1-half 2018, before rising
to close to $54/bbl by the end of 2018.

SOUTHERN ASIA

INDIA
The Indian government looks set to increase natural gas prices for the six months starting 1 October 2017 to around $2.80/mmBtu
from the current $2.48/mmBtu, representing a rise of roughly 13%, a survey among analysts and industry participants published by
Bloomberg showed. The estimates ranged between $2.60/mmBtu and $3.15/mmBtu. The government is due to announce the
actual new price this week.

This would be the first rise in domestic natural gas prices since November 2014 when the formula gas pricing was first introduced.
Since then, prices have been successively reduced in five cuts from just over $5.00/mmBtu in November 2014. The gas-pricing-
formula in India is based on US, Canadian, Russian and UK rates.

From 1 October, companies producing gas from some deep-water fields with high pressure and high temperature areas are allowed
a higher tariff of about $5.56/mmBtu, the report further said.

EASTERN ASIA

CHINA
Thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao for the 5,500 kcal grade are flat this week in Rmb-terms at Rmb580-590/t ($88.20-88.25/t)
compared with Rmb580-590/t ($88.80-88.85/t) last week. The average price in September so far is estimated at Rmb583/t
($88.62/t) compared with the August average of also Rmb583/t ($87.51/t) and the year-ago average in September 2016 of
Rmb543/t ($81.82/t).

The y-t-d average price in $-terms stands at $86.50/t against $63.22/t in January-September 2016 and against $72.09/t in the same
period in 2015.

OCEANIA

AUSTRALIA
The Newcastle market for Q4 2017 is $96.45/t down from $96.60/t last week; Q1 2018 is $94.15/t up from $93.60/t; 2018 is
$87.45/t down from $87.85/t; 2019 is $79.75/t down from $80.20/t; and 2020 is $76.35/t.

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
The Henry Hub day-ahead price is estimated at $2.97/mmBtu on 27 September down from a revised price of 3.13/mmBtu on 20
September.

In September so far, it averaged $2.98/mmBtu against August at $2.90/mmBtu, and July and June both at $2.98/mmBtu.

In its September Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.05/mmBtu in
2017 (down a fraction from $3.06/mmBtu in the August report) and $3.29/mmBtu in 2018 (level with the prior report), having
averaged $2.51/mmBtu in 2016, according to Fertecon estimates. The new EIA projection for 2017 is still roughly in line with the

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 28 September

current Fertecon projection. The EIA is currently projecting prices to be a bit lower in Q3 2017 at an average of $2.95/mmBtu
compared with Q2 2017. The average for Q4 2017 is estimated at $3.17/mmBtu.

On NYMEX natural gas futures, the October 2017 contract settled at $2.974/mmBtu on 27 September down from $3.094/mmBtu
on 20 September. The average for the next three months Oct-Dec 2017 is $3.084/mmBtu compared with $3.178/mmBtu a week
earlier, while the average for the next 12 calendar months (Oct 2017-Oct 2018) is $3.069/mmBtu against $3.119/mmBtu.

The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending 15 September 2017 showed a net injection of working gas stocks
into underground storage of 97 bcf. The net injection compares with the year-ago injection of 54 bcf and the five-year-average
injection of 73 bcf. It further compares with the median expectation of market analysts of a net injection of 90 bcf. Natural gas
stocks on 15 September were 3,408 bcf, which is 143 bcf (4.0%) below a year ago and 67 bcf (2.0%) above the five-year average.

Regarding the WTI, the CME November 2017 contract closed at $52.14/bbl on 27 September up from $50.69/bbl on 20 September.
The forward 3-month strip (Nov 2017-Jan 2018) is $52.40/bbl, while the 12-month forward average (Nov 2017-Nov 2018) is
$52.47/bbl.

NITROGEN: UREA REPORT is prepared by Elfi Middelbeek Phone: +44 20 7055 77533 Email: elfi.middelbeek@fertecon.com

FERTECON NITROGEN: UREA REPORT is published weekly by:

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