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Equity Research

Inversiones J.P. Morgan Limitada
22-Nov-17

Equity Research

Sensitivity Analysis of Chile 2nd Round Presidential Election
Diego Celedon
(56-22) 425-5245
diego.celedon@jpmorgan.com

Source: J.P. Morgan.
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Expected Scenario % of votes going to Piñera % of votes going to Guillier % of people not voting in 2nd Round
Vote Increase in
% 2017 1st Round Votes 2nd Round Votes
2nd Round
% From: % From: % Of: %
37% Piñera (Center-Right) 2,416,054 2,990,386 574,332 50.02% Sanchez 0% Sanchez 75% Sanchez 25%
23% Guillier (Center-Left) 1,496,560 2,987,479 1,490,919 49.98% Kast 95% Kast 0% Kast 5%
20% Sanchez (Extreme Left) 1,336,622 2,906 2nd Round Vote Delta Goic 20% Goic 70% Goic 10%
8% Kast (Extreme Right) 522,946 MEO 0% MEO 50% MEO 50%
6% Goic (Center-Left) 387,664 Outcome Artes 0% Artes 50% Artes 50%
6% MEO (Extreme Left) 376,406 Piñera wins Navarro 0% Navarro 50% Navarro 50%
1% Artes (Left) 33,755
0% Navarro (Left) 24,015
Total Voters 6,594,022 5,977,865 (616,157) Voting diference 1st vs 2nd Round
Not voting in 2nd round 616,157

Vote Increase in
% 2013 1st Round Votes 2nd Round Votes
2nd Round
%
47% Bachelet (Center-Left) 3,075,839 3,470,055 394,216 62.17%
25% Matthei (Center-Right) 1,648,481 2,111,830 463,349 37.83%
11% MEO (Extreme Left) 723,542 1,358,225 2nd Round Vote Delta
10% Parisi (Independent) 666,015
3% Claude (Left) 185,072 Outcome
2% Sfeir (Left) 154,648 Bachelet won
1% Miranda (Left) 81,873
1% Israel (Left) 37,744
0% Jocelyn-Holt (Independent) 12,594
Total Voters 6,585,808 5,581,885 (1,003,923) Voting diference 1st vs 2nd Round
Not voting in 2nd round 1,003,923

Vote Increase in
% 2009 1st Round Votes 2nd Round Votes
2nd Round
%
44% Piñera (Center-Right) 3,074,164 3,594,182 520,018 51.63%
30% Frei (Center-Left) 2,065,061 3,367,790 1,302,729 48.37%
20% MEO (Extreme Left) 1,405,124 226,392 2nd Round Vote Delta
6% Arrate (Left) 433,195
Outcome
Piñera won

Total 6,977,544 6,961,972 (15,572) Voting diference 1st vs 2nd Round
Not voting in 2nd round 15,572