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The cryptocurrency is a decentralized digital money. Bitcoin is a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange using cryptography to secure the transactions, to control the creation of additional units, and to verify the transfer of assets. The objective of this study is to forecast Bitcoin exchange rate in high volatility environment. Methodology implemented in this study is forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). This study performed autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) analysis in determining the parameter of ARIMA model. Result shows the first difference of Bitcoin exchange rate is a stationary data series. The forecast model implemented in this study is ARIMA (2, 1, 2). This model shows the value of R-squared is 0.444432. This value indicates the model explains 44.44% from all the variability of the response data around its mean. The Akaike information criterion is 13.7805. This model is considered a model with good fitness. The error analysis between forecasting value and actual data was performed and mean absolute percentage error for ex-post forecasting is 5.36%. The findings of this study are important to predict the Bitcoin exchange rate in high volatility environment. This information will help investors to predict the future exchange rate of Bitcoin and in the same time volatility need to be monitor closely. This action will help investors to gain better profit and reduce loss in investment decision.

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(ARIMA) Model for Forecasting

Cryptocurrency Exchange Rate in High

Volatility Environment: A New Insight of Bitcoin

Transaction

Nashirah Abu Bakar1, Sofian Rosbi2

1

Islamic Business School, College of Business, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia

2

School of Mechatronic Engineering, Unversiti Malaysia Perlis, Malaysia

Abstract The cryptocurrency is a decentralized digital technology give an impact on pervades aspect of human

money. Bitcoin is a digital asset designed to work as a life. Technology is convergence of computing,

medium of exchange using cryptography to secure the telecommunications and imaging technologies has had

transactions, to control the creation of additional units, radical impacts on IT users, their work, and their working

and to verify the transfer of assets. The objective of this environments. In its various manifestations, IT processes

study is to forecast Bitcoin exchange rate in high data, gathers information, stores collected materials,

volatility environment. Methodology implemented in this accumulates knowledge, and expedites communication

study is forecasting using autoregressive integrated (Chan, 2000), plays an important role in many aspects of

moving average (ARIMA). This study performed the everyday operations of today's business world.

autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial In response to a new technological shift,

autocorrelation function (PACF) analysis in determining criminals and consumers alike are increasingly finding

the parameter of ARIMA model. Result shows the first new ways to evolve (Reynolds and Irwin, 2017).

difference of Bitcoin exchange rate is a stationary data Therefore, accelerating technology was introduced many

series. The forecast model implemented in this study is financial mechanisms such as bitcoin cryptocurrency.

ARIMA (2, 1, 2). This model shows the value of R- A bitcoin cryptocurrency transaction is a new

squared is 0.444432. This value indicates the model mechanism in digital currency. A bitcoin transaction was

explains 44.44% from all the variability of the response introduced based on cryptographic, allowing two parties

data around its mean. The Akaike information criterion is to transact directly with each other without the need for a

13.7805. This model is considered a model with good trusted third party. This transaction are computationally

fitness. The error analysis between forecasting value and impractical to reverse would protect sellers from fraud,

actual data was performed and mean absolute percentage and routine escrow mechanisms could easily be

error for ex-post forecasting is 5.36%. The findings of implemented to protect buyers (Nakamoto, 2009).

this study are important to predict the Bitcoin exchange Blockchains are a software protocol that underlie bitcoin

rate in high volatility environment. This information will cryptocurrency in one sense, are nothing more than a

help investors to predict the future exchange rate of modernizing information technology, but in another

Bitcoin and in the same time volatility need to be monitor sense, are novel and disruptive (Yeoh, 2017).

closely. This action will help investors to gain better Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, rely on a de-centralised

profit and reduce loss in investment decision. system based on peer-to-peer public key addresses, rather

Keywords Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, ARIMA model, than having a central regulating body, such as a financial

Volatility, Error diagnostics. institution or bank, which reviews and monitors

transactions. This allows potential criminal transactions to

I. INTRODUCTION be processed through cryptocurrencies, as the process of

Technology is being presented as something new moving money is quicker and more efficient due to the

as it drives change at an ever-increasing rate bypassing of the regulatory controls that third-party

(Chaharbaghi and Willis, 2000). The accelerating of institutions, such as banks, are legally bound to perform.

International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) [Vol-4, Issue-11, Nov- 2017]

https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.4.11.20 ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O)

This situation makes a bitcoin transaction faced with high market trends; there are substantial differences in the

volatility due to uncontrolled by professional body. forecasts obtained using alternative specifications.

Volatility is a statistical measure of the Although study from Jadevicius and Huston

dispersion of returns for a stock market. Volatility of (2015) suggests that ARIMA is a useful technique to

stock markets has created much attention among investors assess broad market price changes. Government and

because high volatility can bring high returns or losses to central bank can use ARIMA modelling approach to

investors (Abu Bakar and Rosbi, 2017). This situation forecast national house price inflation. Developers can

creates a risk to investors, because a rational investor employ this methodology to drive successful house-

always makes an investment decision based on risk and building programme. Investor can incorporate forecasts

return (Lee, et al., 2016). Even there are many study focus from ARIMA models into investment strategy for timing

on the volatility but no previous study are examine the purposes. If this player can predict the future changes in

volatility of bitcoin cyptocurrency using ARIMA model. investment, they can modify future

Therefore this study try to fulfil this gap by investigates investment and reorganize strategic planning (Abu Bakar

the volatility of bitcoin cryptocurrency using ARIMA and Rosbi, 2017)

model. According to Brailsford and Faff (1996) identify A more recent study, Coskun and Ertugrul,

the best volatility forecasting technique is a critical job (2016) suggest several points. First, city/country-level

because a best predict volatility forecasting techniques not house price return volatility series display volatility

only depends on data availability and predefined clustering pattern and therefore volatilities in house price

assumption but also depends on the quality of data (Lee, returns are time varying. Second, it seems that there were

et al., 2016; Abraham et al, 2007). high (excess) and stable volatility periods during

observation term. Third, a significant economic event

II. LITERATURE REVIEW may change country/city-level volatilities. In this context,

A number of studies have been undertaken on the biggest and relatively persistent shock was the lagged

how the volatility is reflecting on the real returns that negative shocks of global financial crisis. More

investors earn. Most of the previous study are investigates importantly, short-lived political/economic shocks have

the performance of stock market. Study from Faff and not significant impacts on house price return volatilities.

McKenziet (2007) concluded that low or even negative Fourth, however, house price return volatilities differ

return autocorrelations are more likely in situations across geographic areas, volatility series may show some

where: return volatility is high; price falls by a large co-movement pattern.

amount; traded stock volumes are high; and the economy El-Masry and Abdel-Salam (2007) examine the

is in a recessionary phase. effect of firm size and foreign operations on the exchange

While, Abu Bakar and Rosbi (2017) investigate rate exposure of UK non-financial companies. They

the reliability of BoxJenkins statistical method to found that a higher percentage of UK firms are exposed to

forecast the share price performance for Oil and Gas contemporaneous exchange rate changes than those

sector in Malaysia Stock found that the performance of reported in previous studies. In summary, while there has

Gas Malaysia Berhad can be forecast accurately using been a multitude of literature in the stock market literature

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) concerned with the performance of stock market

model of (5,1,5). Similar to Malaysia, Balli and determinants, little attention has been placed on the

Elsamadisy, (2012) compare the linear methods, the forecasting of bitcoin cryptocurrency volatility.

seasonal ARIMA model provides better estimates for

short-term forecasts in the State of Qatar. The range of III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

forecast errors for the seasonal ARIMA model forecasts This section describes the forecasting procedure involving

are less than 100 million Qatar Riyadh for the short-term Bitcoin exchange rate. The process starting with data

currency in circulation (CIC) forecasts. selection process then followed by forecasting process

The significance of forecasting method in the using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)

stock market is also presented by Stevenson (2007), method.

examines issues relating to the application of forecasting 3.1 Data selection process

method. The results highlight the limitations in using the This study selects monthly data for Bitcoin exchange rate

conventional approach in order to identify the best- starting from January 2013 until October 2017. The data

specified ARIMA model in sample, when the purpose of are collected from https://www.coindesk.com.

the analysis is to provide forecasts. The results show that 3.2 Forecasting procedure

the ARIMA models can be useful in anticipating broad This study forecast the performance of Bitcoin exchange

rate using the statistical procedure as shown in Fig. 1. The

International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) [Vol-4, Issue-11, Nov- 2017]

https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.4.11.20 ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O)

forecasting process is start with the identification of the predictable term). Thus, the model is in the form of a

data model using autoregressive integrated moving stochastic difference equation.

average (ARIMA). In developing ARIMA model, The notation AR (p) indicates an autoregressive model of

analysis of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial order p. The AR (p) model is defined as:

autocorrelation function (PACF) need to be performed. X t c 1 X t 1 ... p X t p t

Then, this research need to develop estimation of the p

parameter for chosen ARIMA model. In validating the X t c i X t i t ... (1)

model, diagnostics checking need to be developed. The i 1

residual is the difference between the observed value and where i ,..., p the parameters of the model, c is

the estimated value of the quantity of interest (sample

mean). The residual should be uncorrelated, zero mean constant, and t is white noise.

and zero variance. Then, forecasting and error checking Then, this study derived the equation for moving average

stage can be performed. (MA). The moving-average model specifies that the

output variable depends linearly on the current and

various past values of a stochastic (imperfectly

predictable) term. MA of current deviation from mean

depends on previous deviations.

The notation MA (q) refers to the moving average model

of order q:

X t t 1 t 1 ... q t q

q

X t t i t i ... (2)

i 1

parameters of the model, and t , t 1 ,..., t q are white

noise error terms. The value of q is called the order of the

MA model.

Then, this study developed the mathematical derivation

for autoregressivemoving-average (ARMA) models. In

the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive

moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious

description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in

terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression and

Fig. 1: Statistical forecasting procedure the second for the moving average.

Given a time series of data Xt the ARMA model is a tool

3.3 Mathematical derivation of ARIMA model for understanding and predicting future values in this

This section describes mathematical derivation of series. The model consists of two parts, an autoregressive

autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). This (AR) part and a moving average (MA) part. The AR part

method is combining autoregressive (AR) with moving involves regress the variable on its own lagged values.

average (MA) method. Then, this hybrid method is The MA part involves modeling the error term as a linear

integrated with data of difference process. The difference combination of error terms occurring contemporaneously

process is important to make sure data involved in this and at various times in the past.

analysis can be represented as data with stationary The notation ARMA (p, q) refers to the model with p

characteristics. Therefore, the combination of this method autoregressive terms and q moving-average terms. This

is called as autoregressive integrated moving average. model contains the AR (p) and MA (q) models. Equation

Firstly, this study describes the derivation of (3) is an equation from adding the left term of Equation

autoregressive (AR) method. An autoregressive (AR) (1) and Equation (2).

p q

model is a representation of a type of random process. It

is used to describe certain time-varying processes in time

X t c i X t i t t i t i ...... (3)

i 1 i 1

series data. The autoregressive model specifies that the

output variable depends linearly on its own previous

values and on a stochastic term (an imperfectly

International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) [Vol-4, Issue-11, Nov- 2017]

https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.4.11.20 ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O)

where is the mean of the series is expected as i p ' d i

p'

i 1 i L 1 L .. (6)

d

zero.Then, this study re-arranged the equation (3) to

1 L

i 1 i 1

become Equation (4).

An ARIMA (p,d,q) process expresses this polynomial

p q

X t c t i X t i i t i . (4) factorization property with p = p'd, and is given by:

i 1 i 1 p

i q

i

1 i L 1 L X t 1 i L t ... (7)

d

where i ,..., p the parameters of the AR model, 1 ,..., q

i 1 i 1

are the parameters of the MA model, c is constant, and The Equation (7) can be generalized as follows,

t is white noise. The white noise t is independent and i i

p q

i

i L t . (8)

d

has identical probability normal distribution. The model is 1 L 1 L X t 1

i 1 i 1

usually referred to as the ARMA (p,q) model where p is

This defines equation for an ARIMA (p,d,q) process with

the order of the autoregressive (AR) part and q is the

drift /(1 i).

order of the moving average (MA) part.

IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS

The error terms t are generally assumed to be

This section describes the result for autoregressive

independent identically distributed random variables integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for

(i.i.d.) sampled from a normal distribution with zero forecasting the Bitcoin exchange rate.

mean: t N (0, 2 ) where

2

is the variance. 4.1 Dynamic behavior of Bitcoin exchange rate

Then, this study performed the derivation of This section describes characteristics of the data that

autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). involved in this study. Figure 1 shows the dynamic

Given a time series of data Xt where t is an integer index behavior of Bitcoin exchange rate. The observation data

are selected from January 2013 until October 2017. The

and the Xt are real numbers. An ARMA (p, q) model is

total number of observations is 58. In January 2013, the

given by Equation (4). Then, this study re-arranged to

value of 1 Bitcoin is 15.6 USD. Meanwhile, the value of

become Equation (5).

exchange rate increased to 5350.5 USD in October 2017.

X t 1 X t 1 ... p ' X t p ' t 1 t 1 ... q t q

The increment is 5334.9 USD.

p'

i q

i

Then, this study performed the autocorrelation function

i t i L t (5)

1 L X 1 (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF)

i 1 i 1

analysis. There is slow decay in autocorrelation analysis.

where L is the lag operator, i are the parameters of the Therefore, exchange rate data is a non-stationary data.

autoregressive part of the model, i are the parameters of

Exchange rate (1 Bitcoin to USD)

7000

the moving average part and t are error terms. The error 6000

Bitcoin exchange rate

identically distributed variables sampled from a normal 4000

distribution with zero mean.

3000

In time series analysis, the lag operator, L or backshift

operator operates on an element of a time series to 2000

produce the previous element. For example, given some 1000

time series:

X X 1 , X 2 ,...

0

Jan. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec.

Then, LX t X t 1 for all t 1 . 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Note that the lag operator can be raised to arbitrary Fig. 1: Bitcoin exchange rate

integer powers so that:

Lk X t X t k

Referring to Equation (5), assume now that the

p'

polynomial 1 L i

i

has a unit root (a factor

i 1

1 L ) of multiplicity d. Then it can be rewritten as:

International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) [Vol-4, Issue-11, Nov- 2017]

https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.4.11.20 ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O)

Table 1: Correlogram for Bitcoin exchange rate Table 2: Correlogram for first difference of Bitcoin

exchange rate

4.2 Stationary transformation using first difference

This section describes the estimation of parameters for

Figure 2 shows the first difference of Bitcoin exchange

ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model. This section starts with the

rate. The first difference results are calculated from

derivation of ARIMA (p, d, q). In this study the value of

February 2013 until October 2017. Figure 2 shows high

p is set as 2; d is set as 1 and q is set as 2. Therefore, this

volatility of exchange rate stating from May 2017 until

study derived equation for ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

October 2017.

Then, this study evaluated the stationarity characteristics

ARIMA (p, d, q) is represented by:

for first difference of Bitcoin exchange rate. Table 2

shows the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial

p

i q

i

1 i L 1 L X t c 1 i L t

autocorrelation function (PACF) analysis for first d

function (ACF) shows a significant spike on order of two

with value of 0.539. This indicates the moving average is Then, this study derived equation for ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

represented by order of two. In the same time, partial

autocorrelation function (PACF) shows a significant spike

2

i 2

i

1 i L 1 L X t c 1 i L t

1

on second order with value of 0.531. This indicates the

autoregressive part can be represented by order of two. i 1 i 1

Therefore, the first difference of Bitcoin exchange rate Then, this study expended the equation as below

can be represented by ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

procedure.

1600

1400 First difference of exchange rate

1 L L 1 L xt c 1 1L1 2 L2 t

First difference of exchange rate

1200 1 2 1

1 2

1000

800

600

400

1 L L x x c 1 L L

1

1

2

2

t t 1 1

1

2

2

t

200

1 L L x c 1 1L1 2 L2 t

0 1 2

-200 1 2 t

-400

Jan. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec.

2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Observation periods (month)

Fig. 2: First difference of Bitcoin exchange rate

xt 1xt 1 2 xt 2 c t 1 t 1 2 t 2

Therefore, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) can be represented as below

International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) [Vol-4, Issue-11, Nov- 2017]

https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.4.11.20 ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O)

Table 4: Residual diagnostics of ARIMA (2,1,2)

equation:

xt c 1xt 1 2 xt 2 1 t 1 2 t 2 t ..(9)

Therefore, historical data of Bitcoin exchange rate can be

represented by below equation of ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

xt 218 0.237084xt 1 0.687976xt 2

...(10)

0.281149 t 1 0.024093 t 2 t

are to the fitted regression line. R-squared is represented

by the percentage of the response variable variation that is

explained by a linear model. This model shows the value 4.5 Ex-post forecasting using ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model

of R-squared is 0.444432. This value indicates the model In validating the prediction model of ARIMA (2, 1, 2), an

explains 44.44% from all the variability of the response ex-post analysis is needed. Firstly, this study started with

data around its mean. The Akaike information criterion is calculated the parameters for ARIMA (2, 1, 2). The

13.7805. This model is considered a model with good selected data for developing parameters are started from

fitness. January 2013 until August 2017. Table 5 shows the

Table 3: Parameter estimation for ARIMA (2,1,2) parameters for ARIMA (2, 1, 2). Therefore, the equation

for ex-post forecasting validation is represented by:

......... (11)

0.603 t 1 0.166 t 2 t

Equation (11). Figure 3 shows the ex-post forecasting

validation. Figure 3 shows the actual value for September

and October 2017 are in the range of 2 standard errors

from the forecasted value. Therefore, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) is

a reliable forecasting model.

Table 5: Correlogram for first difference of Bitcoin

exchange rate

Diagnostics checking process is to prove this model

adequately describes the time series under consideration

by subjecting the calibrated model to a range of statistical

tests. For the diagnostic checks in this paper, it is assumed

that a maximum likelihood estimator is used to estimate

the model parameters. A random pattern of residuals

supports a linear model. In discrete time, white noise is a

discrete signal whose samples are regarded as a sequence

of serially uncorrelated random variables with zero mean

and finite variance. Table 4 shows the residual for the first

difference of Bitcoin exchange rate is not significant.

Therefore, the residual is considered as white noise.

International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) [Vol-4, Issue-11, Nov- 2017]

https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.4.11.20 ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O)

6500

Actual data 8000

Exchange rate (1 Bitcoin to USD)

6000

Forecast data + 2 standard error 7000 Ex-ante forecast data

Forecast data - 2 standard error Forecast data + 2 standard error

5500

6000 Forecast data - 2 standard error

5000

5000

4500

4000

4000 3000

3500 2000

3000 1000

August September October June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017

Observation periods (month) Observation periods (month)

Fig. 3: Ex-post forecasting validation

Fig. 4: Ex-ante forecasting of Bitcoin exchange rate

Then, this study also checked the mean absolute

percentage error (MAPE) between forecast value and

V. CONCLUSION

actual value. Equation (12) shows the equation for

The objective of this paper is to forecast cryptocurrency

calculating mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

exchange rate. In this study, we focus on value of 1

100 n At Ft

MAPE

n t 1 At

. (12)

Bitcoin to United States Dollar (USD). The data selected

for this study are started from January 2013 until October

where At is the actual value , Ft is the forecast value and n 2017.We performed the forecasting approach using

is number of fitted. autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)

Table 6 shows the error analysis between forecasting method. The main findings from this study are:

value and actual data. The mean absolute percentage error

for ex-post forecasting is 5.36%. (a) In January 2013, the value of 1 Bitcoin is 15.6 USD.

Table 6: Error analysis between forecasting value and Meanwhile, the value of exchange rate increased to

actual data 5350.5 USD in October 2017. The increment is

5334.9 USD.

Absolute

Observation Forecast Actual

percentage

periods (Month) data data (b) This study performed the autocorrelation function

error

(ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF)

September 2017 4147.7 4090.7 1.4%

analysis for Bitcoin exchange rate. There is slow

October 2017 4851.8 5350.5 9.3% decay in autocorrelation analysis. Therefore,

exchange rate data is a non-stationary data

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 5.36%

(c) Then, this study performed stationary transformation

4.6 Ex-ante forecasting using ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model method with finding the correlogram analysis for first

This study performed ex-ante forecasting using ARIMA difference of Bitcoin exchange rate. Autocorrelation

(2,1,2) model for November and December 2017. Figure function (ACF) shows a significant spike on order of

4 shows ex-ante forecasting of Bitcoin exchange rate. two with value of 0.539. This indicates the moving

Forecast value in November 2017 is 5700, and December average is represented by order of two. In the same

2017 is 6659. Forecast value is represented by red line. time, partial autocorrelation function (PACF) shows

Upper limit of forecast value is forecast value add with 2 a significant spike on second order with value of

standard errors. Meanwhile, lower limit is forecast value 0.531. This indicates the autoregressive part can be

minus with 2 standard errors. represented by order of two. Therefore, the first

difference of Bitcoin exchange rate can be

represented by ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

(d) Therefore, historical data of Bitcoin exchange rate

can be represented by below equation of ARIMA (2,

1, 2).

International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) [Vol-4, Issue-11, Nov- 2017]

https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.4.11.20 ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O)

xt 218 0.237084xt 1 0.687976xt 2 Bank in Malaysia: An Arithmetic Approach in

Islamic Financial Engineering, International Journal

0.281149 t 1 0.024093 t 2 t of Economics, Commerce and Management, V (3),

pp. 1-15

(e) The error analysis is calculated between forecasting [7] Lee, H.S., Ng, D.C.Y., Lau, T.C. and Ng, C.H.

value and actual data. The mean absolute percentage (2016) Forecasting Stock Market Volatility on Bursa

error for ex-post forecasting is 5.36%. Malaysia Plantation Index, International Journal of

Finance and Accounting, 5 (1), pp. 54-61

(f) This study performed ex-ante forecasting using [8] Brailsford, T. J. & Faff, R.W. (1996). An Evaluation

ARIMA (2,1,2) model for November and December of Volatility Forecasting Techniques, Journal of

2017. Forecast value in November 2017 is 5700, and Banking and Finance, 20, 419-438

December 2017 is 6659 [9] Abraham, A., Roselina, S., Siti, M. &Siti, Z. (2007).

Forecasting time series data using hybrid grey

As a conclusion, forecasting approach using relational artificial neural network and auto

autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressive integrated moving average model. Neural

method produce a reliable forecasting model. However, Network World, 573-605.

high volatility environment creates larger error. [10] Faff, R.W. and McKenzie, M.D., (2007), The

Therefore, Forecasting in high volatility environment relationship between implied volatility and

need special consideration of error diagnostics. autocorrelation, International Journal of Managerial

The findings of this study are important to predict the Finance, 3 (2) pp. 191 196

Bitcoin exchange rate in high volatility environment. This [11] Abu Bakar, N. and Rosbi. S,(2017) Robust

information will help investors to predict the future Diagnostics of Box-Jenkins statistical method in

exchange rate of Bitcoin and in the same time volatility forecasting share price performance for Sharia-

need to be monitor closely. This action will help investors Compliant Oil and Gas sector in Malaysia Stock

to gain better profit and reduce loss in investment Exchange, International Journal of Scientific

decision. Research and Management, 5 (7) pp. 6364-6376

[12] Balli, F. and Elsamadisy, E.M. (2012) Modelling the

VI. FURTHER RESEARCH currency in circulation for the State of Qatar,

This research can be extending to discover the factors that International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern

contribute to the volatility of Bitcoin exchange rate. In the Finance and Management, 5 (4), pp.321-339

same time, the correlation of Bitcoin with other currency [13] Simon Stevenson, (2007), A comparison of the

also is another area that can be analyze forecasting ability of ARIMA models, Journal of

Property Investment & Finance, 25 (3), pp.223-240

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http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf (accessed 20 October (ARIMA) model for Islamic Country Currency: An

2017) Econometrics method for Islamic Financial

[5] Yeoh, P. (2017) Regulatory issues in blockchain Engineering, The International Journal of

technology, Journal of Financial Regulation and Engineering and Science, 6 (6), 22-31

Compliance, 25 (2), pp. 196-208

[6] Abu Bakar, N. and Rosbi. S,(2017) Robust Pearson

Correlation Analysis of Volatility for the Islamic

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