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FED SURVEY

December 12, 2017


These survey results represent the opinions of 44 of the nations top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.

They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on December 7-9, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.

Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.

1. At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve will:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Raise interest
rates 98%

Lower interest
rates 0%

Keep rates
unchanged 2%

Don't know/
unsure 0%

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2. After its upcoming meeting, the Federal Reserve's next


directional move will most likely be:
Raise interest rates Lower interest rates
Move to negative interest rates Launch new quantitative easing
100%
100% 100%
100% 98% 98% 98%
98%
95% 95%
90% 94%
92%
90% Raise interest rates: 100%
88%
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20% Lower interest rates: 0%

10% 10% Launch new quantitative easing: 0%


10%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul 26 Aug Sep Nov 1 Dec Jan Mar May 2 Jun Jul 25 Sep Oct Dec
27 15 26 14 24 20 13 31 14 13 19 31 12
Note:

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(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)

When will the Federal Reserve take this action?


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jan '18 0%

Feb 0%

Mar 67%

Apr 2%
Average:
May 7%
April
2018
Jun 21%

Jul 0%

Aug 0%

Sep 0%

Oct 0%

After
Oct '18 2%

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3. How many times in total will the Federal Reserve hike


rates in ?

2018 hikes 2019 hikes

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.86 2.84
Average

2.50 2.63

2.00 2019: 2.26

1.50

1.00
Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12
Survey Dates

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December 12, 2017

4. What target size for its balance do you believe the


Federal Reserve will adopt?
Trillions of dollars
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Jun
13 2.4

Jul
25 2.5
Survey dates

Sep
19 2.4

Dec
12 2.6

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5. Roughly how many years will the Fed take to reach this
goal?
Years
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Jun
13 4.6

Jul
25 4.6
Survey dates

Sep
19 4.4

Dec
12 4.4

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6. When, if at all, will Congress pass a tax cut bill along the
lines of the measures that have recently passed the
House and Senate?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Dec '17 72%

Jan '18 23%

Feb 0%

Mar 2% Average:

December
Apr 0%
2017

May 0%

Jun 0%

After
Jun 0%
'18

Never 0%

Don't
know/ 2%
unsure

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7. Assuming Congress does pass a tax bill that is a


compromise between the House and Senate versions and
it is signed into law by President Trump, by how much
and in what direction would GDP be affected compared to
a scenario in which no tax bill is passed, for ...?

Average change in percentage points


-2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 +0.00 +0.50 +1.00 +1.50 +2.00

2018 +0.46

2019 +0.52

Annual
average
over the +0.45
next 10
years

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8. Who would benefit most from corporate tax cuts?

Oct 31 Dec 12

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Workers, 12%
through
higher
wages 5%

Shareholders 54%
and
executives
51%

Both 35%
about
equally
44%

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9. Do you believe stock market valuations are at a level


where the Fed should be raising rates to cool the
market?

Oct 31 Dec 12

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

33%
Yes
24%

62%
No
66%

Don't 5%
know/
unsure
10%

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10. How concerned do you believe the average Fed


member is about stock market valuations?

Oct 31 Dec 12

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very 9%
concerned
5%

Somewhat 70%
concerned
68%

Not at all 14%


concerned
20%

Don't 7%
know/
unsure 7%

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11. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on ?

December 31, 2018 December 31, 2019

3,000

December 31, 2019


2862

2,800

2775

2708

2,600

2588 2593
2555 2564 2562

2480
2453
2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800
Dec Jan 31 Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct 31 Dec 12
13 2017 14 2 13 25 19
Survey Dates

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12. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year


Treasury note will be on ?

December 31, 2018 December 31, 2019

4.0%

3.5% 3.44% 3.43%


3.37% December 31, 2019
3.24%
3.22%

3.05% 3.03% 3.06%


2.95%
3.0%

2.84%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct 31 Dec 12
13 31 14 2 13 25 19
2017
Survey Dates

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13. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on ?
Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020

3.0%

2.73%
2.70%
2.67%2.70% 2.68% 2.67%
2.60%
2.56%
2.49%
2.5%
2.54%

2.25% 2.42%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15% 2.14%
2.07% 2.06%
2.10% 2.03%

2.0% 2.06%
1.87%
2.02%
1.81%

1.78%
1.69%
1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec
26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12
2017

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14. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%

3.5%

3.30%

3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94% 2.94%
2.92%
2.85%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%

2.42% 2.44%

2.29%

2.0%
Sep 16

Sept 16

Sep 20

Jul 25
Sep 19
Oct 28

Jun 16

Oct 27

Jun 14

Jun 13

Oct 31
Aug 20

Dec 16

Mar 17

Jul 28

Jan 26 '16

Jul 26

Jan 31 '17
Jan 27, '15

Dec 15

Mar 15

Dec 13

Mar 14

Dec 12
Apr 28

Aug 25

Apr 26

Aug 24

Nov 1

May 2

Survey Dates

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December 12, 2017

15. When do you believe fed funds will reach its


terminal rate?

2017 2018 2019


Survey date
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Aug 20, 2014 Q4
Sept 16 Q3
Oct 28 Q4
Dec 16 Q1
Jan 27, 2015 Q1
Mar 17 Q4
Apr 28 Q1
June 16 Q1
July 28 Q2
Aug 25 Q3
Sept 16 Q1
Oct 27 Q3
Dec 15 Q1
Jan 26, 2016 Q2
Mar 15 Q3
Apr 26 Q4
Jun 14 Q4
Jul 26 Q4
Aug 24 Q4
Sept 20 Q4
Nov 1 Q1
Dec 13 Q2
Jan 31, 2017 Q2
Mar 14 Q2
May 2 Q2
June 13 Q2
Jul 25 Q2
Sep 19 Q2
Oct 31 Q3
Dec 12 Q3

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16. What is your forecast for the year-over-year


percentage change in real U.S. GDP for ?
2018 2019

3.0%

2.85%
2.85%
2.8% +2.76% +2.75%

2.61%
+2.62%
2.6% 2.60%

+2.58%

2.4% +2.45% 2.45%

2.2%

2.0%

1.8%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62% +2.58% +2.45% 2.45% 2.60% 2.61% 2.85%
2019 2.85%

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17. What is your forecast for the year-over-year


percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for ?
2018 2019

2.8%

2.64%

2.6% 2.57% 2019


2.54%
2.50%
2.44%

2.4%

2.30%
2.28% 2.23%

2.2%

2.15% 2.14%

2.0%

1.8%

1.6%
Dec 13 Jan Mar May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12
31 14
2017
Survey Dates

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December 12, 2017

18. Compared to Janet Yellen, incoming Fed Chair


Jerome Powell will be:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Much more dovish 0%

Somewhat more dovish 2%

About the same 76%

Somewhat more hawkish 22%

Much more hawkish 0%

Don't know/unsure 0%

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19. Compared to the Fed's current policy outlook, Fed


Governor Randal Quarles will be:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Much more dovish 0%

Somewhat more dovish 10%

About the same 30%

Somewhat more hawkish 53%

Much more hawkish 5%

Don't know/unsure 3%

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20. Compared to the Fed's current policy outlook, Fed


Governor Nominee Marvin Goodfriend will be:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Much more dovish 0%

Somewhat more dovish 5%

About the same 28%

Somewhat more hawkish 48%

Much more hawkish 15%

Don't know/unsure 5%

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21. Please rate the performance of Janet Yellen and your


expected performance of Jerome Powell in the following
areas? (1=Very weak, 2=Weak, 3=Neutral, 4=Strong, 5=Very strong)

Yellen Powell

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00

3.95
Leadership
3.60

4.10
Transparency
3.69

3.80
Communication
3.62

Economic 3.35
forecasting 2.95

Economic 4.43
expertise 2.87

Regulatory 3.53
expertise 3.97

Market 3.28
knowledge 3.77

Overall monetary 3.85


policy 3.44

Average for 3.78


all categories 3.49

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22. What grade would you give Janet Yellen as Fed


chair?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

A (4) 40%

B (3) 43%

C (2) 13%

Average:

D (1) 5% B+
(3.18)

F (0) 0%

Don't
know/ 0%
unsure

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23. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S.


economic recovery? (Percentage points)

Outcome of US presidential election


European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake


Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0

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Outcome of US presidential election


European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake


Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0

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Outcome of US presidential election


European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake


Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0

Other responses:
China debt deceleration Large shift in market
expectations regarding the
Debt levels
monetary policy outlook
Labor shortages
Market turmoil leading to
real economy decline

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FED SURVEY
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24. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do


you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0=No chance
of recession, 100=Certainty of recession)
40%

36.1%

This survey:
35%
34.0% 14.9%

30%
28.5% 28.8%

26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20% 20.3% 18.9%
18.4% 18.8%
18.2% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2% 15.2% 14.9%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%

10%
Oct. 31

Mar 16

Mar 19

Jun 18

Mar 18

Mar 17

Jun 16

Mar 15

Jun 14

Mar 14

Jun 13
Aug 11, '11

Jul 31
Sep 12
Dec 11

Jul 30

Dec 17
Jan 28 '14

Jul 29
Sep 16

Dec 16
Jan 27 '15

Jul 28

Dec 15
Jan 15 '16

Jul 26

Sep 20

Dec 13
Jan 31 '17

Jul 25
Sep 19

Dec 12
Jan 23, '12

Jan 29, '13


Sept 19

April 28

Sept 16

Aug 24

May 2
Apr 24

Apr 30

Sep 6
Oct 29

Apr 28

Oct 28

Oct 27

Jan 26

Apr 26

Nov 1

Oct 31

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25. The current valuation of bitcoin is:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

A bubble 80%

Based on
fundamentals 2%

Don't know/
unsure 17%

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26. Does bitcoin qualify under the definition of a


currency?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes 17%

No 66%

Don't
know/ 17%
unsure

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27. What is your primary area of interest?

Currencies
0% Other
12%

Fixed
Income
15%
Economics
51%
Equities
22%

Comments:

Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst, The Lindsey Group:


2018 will bring the real test of the Fed's grand experiment as they
will be both hiking rates and shrinking their balance sheet in concert.
If they do this smoothly, I will admit I was wrong about what they've
done over the past 10 yrs. I don't expect to be wrong though.

Kathy Bostjancic, Head of U.S. Macro Investor Services,


Oxford Economics USA: Recent data continue to keep them on
track for a 25 basis point tightening next week, followed by another
three hikes next year. The Fed is placing more emphasis on
tightening resource utilization than inflation. Further tightening in the
product and labor market utilization rates outweighs concerns about
sub-2% inflation.

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John Donaldson, Director of Fixed Income, Haverford Trust


Co.: This should be the easiest FOMC meeting as we say goodbye to
Yellen and hello to Powell with a rate hike and a reaffirmation of the
plan to unwind the balance sheet. No surprises, no drama. At some
point, Powell will look back and wonder why all the meetings couldn't
have been just like the first.

Bill Dunkelberg, Chief Economist, National Federation of


Independent Business: The Fed is supposed to be "independent"
of politics. But can this be the case when virtually all governors are
appointed by one president? If they all share the same "philosophy"
as the president that appointed them, no political discussion is
needed, they are already on the same "political" page (inflation,
interest rate, distribution of income and wealth etc. views).

One governor recently made a financial contribution to a presidential


candidate during the presidential campaign. Sure everyone has
"their own views" but it is bad taste for a "politically neutral
independent" person to publicly express their views. This
undermines the belief that we want to hold that policy is set for the
good of the country, regardless of politics. We need people with
practical experience, not academics like me.

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research, Renaissance Macro


Research: The last time US growth was this strong it was short-
circuited by a rout in the commodity market and weakness in the
global economy. What is going to slow the economy down this time?
It is not immediately clear. US growth is likely to be strong in 2018.

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Mark Elenowitz, CEO, TriPoint Global Equities: For the past


several years I have been advocating for capital formation and relief
for small business and Main Street. The proposed tax changes may
seem to hamper the middle class, however with a bit of patience I
believe the benefits to the economy and allowing the US corporate
tax to be competitive to offshore jurisdictions will have a strong
impact on GDP, consumer confidence and allow all brackets to
prosper and most importantly small business.

Kevin Giddis, Head of Fixed Income Capital Markets, Raymond


James Financial: The Fed's desire to raise interest rates absent
inflation is risky, but they could be bailed out by real tax reform. If
not, rates could be headed lower next year.

Stuart Hoffman, Senior Economic Advisor, PNC Financial: Fed


rate hikes not likely to be accelerated in 2018 because of passage of
a tax cut. Fed balance sheet shrinkage at the same time as the
Treasury deficit grows in 2018-2019 will help prevent an inversion of
the Treasury yield curve.

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist, B. Riley FBR: The "financial


condition" that the Fed will be focused on when assessing the risks
to policy in 2018 will shift much more to the flattening yield curve
verses their obsession to market reactions. They will not want a
policy misstep that inverts the curve.

Constance Hunter, Chief Economist, KPMG LLP: The next 9-16


months are likely to be some of the strongest in this cycle. But that
does not mean the cycle will go on forever. It is likely that labor
shortages will hamper the pace of expansion the longer it lasts. The
real question is if we will finally see some more elevated wage
inflation and this will be the key determinant of the pace of Fed rate
hikes in 2018.

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John Kattar, Chief Investment Officer, Ardent Asset


Management: The Fed is in tightening mode on both rates and
balance sheet, but the changes are slow and easily handled by the
economy and markets. In the current circumstances, this seems like
the most sensible course. Kudos to Yellen on her way out the door.
I'll admit to being surprised, but she has proven to be a very capable
Fed Chair.

Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist, National Retail Federation:


It appears that both business and consumer sectors are fueling
economic growth. While there is room for the economy to grow and
it is healthy, it is expected to stay at a steady speed.

David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer,


Cumberland Advisors: Huge regime change in tax, monetary,
trade is underway; that makes forecasting very prone to large error
terms.

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer, Trend Macrolytics:


Can we please stop talking about bitcoin?

Drew T. Matus, Chief Market Strategist, MetLife Investment


Management: The key to timing the economic cycle is productivity.
Recent signs point toward productivity moving higher, a
development that would allow firms to pay more and to maintain
margins, boosting consumption and allowing the expansion to
continue.

Rob Morgan, Chief Investment Officer, Sethi: Low inflation will


continue to perplex the Fed, but the rate hike campaign will continue
in December and beyond because the Fed realizes that the greater
threat is the Fed not having enough ammunition - in the form of
higher rates - to combat the next economic downturn.

CNBC Fed Survey December 12, 2017


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FED SURVEY
December 12, 2017

Joel Naroff, President, Naroff Economic Advisors: The sugar


high from tax cuts may make 2018 look good but it will likely hasten
the onset of the next recession.

Lynn Reaser, Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene


University: The Fed's major choice in 2018 will be to accommodate
faster growth driven by the supply side or to curb rising bubbles in
asset markets.

John Roberts, Director of Research, Hilliard Lyons: We remain


cautious on current domestic equity valuations even though we see
very few areas that look cheap, and see a speculative quality to
assets overall at this point (see Bitcoin...). We continue to believe
that there are pockets of value in international equities, especially
EM and selective domestic sectors.

John Ryding, Chief Economist, RDQ Economics: The jewel in the


crown of the tax plan is the cut in corporate tax rates. The impact of
lower taxes on capital spending, productivity growth, and potential
growth is being underestimated by the JCT models.

Allen Sinai, Chief Global Economist and Strategist, Decision


Economics: A "New" new normal of 3% growth is the bottom line.

Hank Smith, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Haverford Trust


Company: The ingredients for the bull market to continue remain
firmly in place: growing economy, growing profits, benign inflation,
low interest rates.

Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist, Wells


Fargo Securities: This looks like a smooth transition for the Fed but
I am a little concerned by the disconnect between the stock market,
which is going full speed ahead, and bond market, which seems to
see rougher seas ahead.

CNBC Fed Survey December 12, 2017


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FED SURVEY
December 12, 2017

Scott Wren, Senior Global Equity Strategist, Wells Fargo


Investment Institute: US stock valuations are getting frothy here
unless you assume margins will expand meaningfully in the coming
two years and earnings growth will accelerate meaningfully from
here in 2018/19 (this is in addition to any tax reform). Both seem
unlikely in our opinion.

Tax cuts will benefit small-cap US stocks more than large caps. In
terms of individual tax cuts, if the top 10% of wage earners who pay
70% to 80% of all federal income taxes and are responsible for
70%+ of all discretionary spending do not get a tax cut, how is the
overall economy going to benefit by a noticeable amount? Individual
tax "reform" doesn't appear likely to truly drive the economy
forward.

CNBC Fed Survey December 12, 2017


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