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Pr foce to th 1 hlrd Edition ,,;;


Pre{clCt to the Srcmul Fdit ion l'ili

1r h u l s and 1ilcstnn C harts 1


1.1 Jntroduction I
1. ... O,tntt CJuu t 1
t. \ c~l kne~ s 111 n ,lr hnrt 3
1.4 ~1 il ~ t one h lrls 5
I. \ V l rk Rr nk.d own St ruc t ur 6
1.6 C PM lnd PI:: R 1 Nd work 7

Qu esti on ~ 10
Problems 10

2/ p "'RT etwork and Tinte l~stimatcs 12


Rcprlnl 2002 Ev nt und Acti\ itics 12
Hints for Drawing Networks 14
... 3 Forward and Bnck\\nrd Planning /7
I 9, 1975, 197 1 ffihated East-We t Pres Pn ate Ltnuted umbering the Events 18
-
") - Time E. t tmate 20
2.6 Singlc-versu. -Multiple Time Estin1atcs 21
o r production 10 an} form of this book, m \\hole or m part 2.7 Fre-quency Distribution 21
(except for bnef quotations 1n critical arttcl 01 rev e'' , rna'
be n1ade athout wntten penn is ton of the pub Ia hers Problem., 25

Reduction of Data
27
Th~rd Ed111on Fwst
Pub/1 h d I 9 9 3.1 ~1e,tn, arinnc nnd tnndard De\ intion .. 7
Repnnt d 1991 1993 /994 /995. 1996 199 1999 .2 Proh bilat} Dastributaon .. 9
1000 (IMI ~ 200/ 2002 3.3 The N rn1n1 D1 tributaon 31
~.4 The B ta-Di tr abut1on 31
J.S E pected Tan1c or rage Ttm 33
Pruued at R kha Pranter Pvt Ltd New Delha I I0 020 3.6 E nmple l7
Published by AMliated a t-West Pre Pnvate L1nuted
105 Ninaaal Tower 26 Barakhamba Road New Delhi II 0 001 Que tion 40
Problem 40

Olllptalatloa 1
-' I rlie t t d T1m 4
4 RuJ for lu tina ~ 4

1\' co. Tc Y
CON1ENl S
4.3 La test AIIO\\ a b le O ccurrence T im e 47
t/Updating J02
4.4 E. ample 48
4.5 Brief Revie\\ 51 8. 1 Intro duction 102
4.6 For\\ ard P sand Back \vard Pa 51 8.2 Example 102
8.3 When to Updat e /06
Problem 54
Problems 107
5 Comput t ion I f 55
~Resource Allocation 108
Slack 55
Critical Path 57 9.1 Introduction 108
5.3 E amples 57 9.2 Resource Smoothin g 11 1
54 Probability of Achie\ing C ompletion D a t e 60 ~ .3 '\.. .-Kcsource Levelltng 112
)... ..)- Central Limit Theorem 64
Problem 113
-.6 Application to a l'et work 64
--
.).I Examples 66 10 Management and Network Analysis 115
Question 67 10.1 Introductio n 115
10.2 PERT COST 116
Problem 68
I 0.3 Aggre gate Plannin g and C ost Contro l 116
6 Critical :Path lethod 70 10.4 W o rk Packages 118
10.5 Netwo rks 119
6.1 In t roduction 70 10.6 Cost Control 120
6.2 Drawi ng the Network 70
10.7 Multiple Project Sc heduling 121
\....-. .3 N u mber in g t he E\ents 74
6.4 Time Est imates 75 11 Linear Programming and Critical Patb Scheduling 124
6.5 Earliest E ven t T ime 76 11.1 Introduction 124
6.6 A R ule fo r Evalua\ing T 77 11.2 Standard Form 126
-,6. 7 Lat est A llowa ble Occu rre nce T ime 77 11.3 Formulation by Linear Programming 127
6.8 A Rul e fo r E valuating TL 79 11.4 Tran sportation Model 129
6.9 Tabular En try 79 11.5 Method of Solution 130
6.10 Forwa rd P ass and Backward Pass 8! 11.6 Fictitious Cost Method 132
6.1 J Slack T ime a nd C r itical Pa\h- 81 11.7 Linear Progran1ming and Critical Path 134
f:6.J2 FJoat 81
Problem 137
Questi ons 84
12 Problem Formulation for Computation
Problems 84 138
12.1 Introduction 138
7 Project Cost Analysis 87 12.2 Formulation for Cratical Path 13
7.1 Cost versus Time 87 12.3 Reduction to Two Prcdecessor'Node 139
88 12.4 Proje t Cost Formulation 140
7.2 Straight Line and Seamented Approximations
12.5 Nonhnear Co t-T1me Trade Off
7.3 Optamum Durataon 90
7.4 Contractana the Network 91
12.6 Lanear Programmana Model for
0
urvc 144
7.5 Problem Typn 96
7.6 Graph Reduction 98 13
13 I lntrod
\'1 CO ' TE 'T
Dcu,ll'll Tn."e~ "trntc ie , Swtcs )I N.tl u
1c t
13.-
and PJ' otls 146
Deci ion ~fatti 149
13.3 The Payoff 1ea,urc and Utilit. J 50
13.4
A:, ,ociation of Proba bilitic 1 1
13.5
Expected Value 153
13.6
Dectston-Box etwork !59
13.i
Problems 162

14 Line-of-Balance Technique 164


1-t. l lntroduction 164
14.- L1ne of Balance 164

Problem 170

J72
'- Jutj D

201
1
Bar Charts and Milestone Charts

1.1 INTRODUCTION
In complex, intcrrelnted business activities. the ma nager o r the admi nis-
trator co nstantly looks forward to those techniques or methods which help
him in planning, scheduling, and controllin g such activities. The concepts
of network planning and critical path analysis have greatly a ssisted him.
The network approach to action planning is a maj or advance in manage-
ment cience It i a technique through which large projects are broken
do wn to individual jobs or events and arranged in a Jog1ca1 netwo rk.
These mdh Jdual jobs are gi~en time estimates for their execution, and the
net\ttork help in 1dentifymg those jobs or events which control the comple-
tion of the project .
PERT and CPM are two such management techniques or tools that
ha e been a ccepted m recent years. PERT stands for Program Evaluation
a nd Re\ Je\\ Technique, and CPM for Critical Path Method. Both these
tool define and coordinate various actJVJtJes of a project and uccessfully
accompli h the objective:) on time. \various claims have been made as to
bov. PERT or CPM has helped management in dra~tically reducmg the
prOJect execution tJme. While such claims cannot be substantJatcd directly,
these technaques have undoubtedly aided the management tremendously.
Some impressions have been created that network analysis is a solutwn
to all bad munagement problems. This is far from being true. No manage-
ment tooJ can make dectsions. However, tools .such as network analysis
provide a management w1th addttJOnal mformatJOn ba~ed on which better
decisions can be made.
The network representataon of projects or actJVItJes has i~ basis in mile-
stone charts "bach are modified, 1m proved versions of bar charts. While the
latter are 1nadequate for large projects, they ba\e their own merits when
apphed to fairly small projects. In th1 chapter, \\e shall d1scuss the bar
charts, the1r adequacies and madequacies, modificattons to y1eld mtlestone
charts, and. finall}, their extension to networks.

1.2 GA TT CHARTS
In dealing wtth complex projects, a pictorial representation sbo~ mg the
vanous JObs to be done and the time and money they mvolve is generally
helpful. One such pactonal chart, also known as the bar chart, was deve-
loped by Henry Ganu around 1900. It conststs or
two coordtnate axes,
BAR CHARTS AND MILESTONE CHARTS 3
.., PERT A D C Jl f
- Testing the assembly 2 weeks
one representrng the time clap ed and the other~ JOb<; or actJvatJes performed.
The jobs arc represented In the fo rm of bar\ as hown tn F 1g. 1- 1. The Packing for dispatch 1 week
The bar chart for th1s project IS shown in F1g. J-2. The vanous acuvit 1es
A.._-+--t---+----t arc sho~n along ~he ordinate or vertical axis and the tJme elapsed along
8 ..,._......,._....,_-" the honzontal ax1s. The chart is self-explanatory.
c ~~-~~--~~~ Prepare pattern
.,
1ft 0 Prepare mould
-- Cast & clean A
-.
:~ E
ti Heat- treat A
< F
Instal M/C M I

G Machine part B L

Assemble A & B
0 10 20 30 40 50
Uni ts of time Pre pare test rig
Test assembly I I
FIGURE 1-1
Pack & dispatch I


length of a bar mdicates the duration the job or activity takes for comple- 16
tio n. Genera H). in any project. some jobs can be taken up concurrently
0
' 8
Weeks
12

and orne \\ill have to be completed before other~ can begin. Hence, in a
bar chart representing a project, so me of the bar run pa ra JJel or overlap FIGURE 1-2
each other ttme-wise (these correspond to concurrent jobs) a nd o rn e r un
sen ally "ith one bar begmning after another bar ends (correspondmg to 1.3 WEAK F.SSES IN BAR CHARTS
an a~t.tvit) tha t succeed:> a preceding acti\ Jty). In Fig. 1-1 , for example, The example Jn SectiOn 1.2 was deliberately chosen to show that the bar
acttvJLres A. B, a nd C can start at the same time and proceed conc urrently chart ma) appear to be an excellent pictonal representation of a proJect.
~?ff m panillel. tho ugh they take dlfferent time intervals for their comple- However, in practice, bar charts have senous limitations. A few of these
uon. Act Jvtty D . ho\ ever. ca nnot begin until activity A is over. The bars are now descrtbed
representing A and D therefore run serially.
Let us cons1der a specJfic example. A p1ece of cqu1pment JS made of ltnu,elllleJJCks of Actirititl
t~o part A and B \\hJch are to be as embled together before they are Jn a programme where there are a large number of acUVJttes that can be
d1spatched. Part A r of cast steel \\ hich requue a pattern and a mould. staned wtth a certatn degree of concurrency, the btr chart cannot show
Part B JS a machrned Item made on a pecial mach me M wh1ch needs to clearly the mterdependenc1e among the vanous efforts or actJvatJes. Tht
be purchased and 1nstalled. P a rt A reqUJ res spec1al heat-treatment before as a senous defiCJency. The mere fact that two or more actav1Ue are
a sembly. 1he a sembly needs to be tested w1th a sp (cJaJiy-constructed sc e u e or simultaneous or overlapping tames does not necessarilY mak
n g before d1spatch. The time ca)e fo r each actiVIty JS as foiJows. them related or tnterdependent, or completely Independent. Cotlllder. for
Prepanng a pattern for casting 4 weeks example, the proJect represented 1n F1g 1-2. Sucb act1v1ties as prepanna
pattern, prepanng a mould, castns and clean tog, and beat-treaung have
Prcpa nng a mould 2 weeks
to run sequentially. a e , one activity mu be completed before the omet
Casung and cleanmg opcrat1 on of A I week can beJin The ban re activities are not lllowed to o er-
Heat-treatment of A 2 weeks lap On the other band, tnatalltna maehine At and prepanDJ thtJ ttl
Obtamtng and mstalllng mach1ne M 7 weeks can proceed umultaneoully they are completely
1achJnrng part B Sweeb ac:ttvitJ aad benco the ban na tbcm cao ru
thtl
As embhng parts .A and B 3w" b
paraJit1 aot
Prepan ng the te5t na 4t~eeb
4 PERT AND CPM
BAR CHARTS AND M ILESTONE CHARTS 5
followtng example will show. . .
Suppose a project invohes d1ggm g hfou nda t iO n , e recting ~ ide boards or
. .
shuttenng. and pouring concrete. T e ttme con <;umcd rs shown agamst
each activity:
Diggmg foundation 20 weeks
Erecting s1de boards 14 week
Pouring concrete 16 weeks
0 4 12 16 20 24 28 32
v t e:s are not allO\\ed to run in parallel but 1n strict \eque nce, Weeks
If th e ac t 1 1 1 h . .
the total r1me taken for the completion oft e p roJect 1s 50 week&. .~s we
FIGURE 1-4
can eas1 l) See , the erection of ~ide boards . can start a fter .t he comple tion of,
~ay, one-half of foundation diggtng. Sim ilarly, t he po unng of co ncre te ca n
a t sa'' 5 weeks after the erection of std e boards. The bar c h a rt for grammes or other complex projects are largely charactenzed by extensive
t
s r, .n . 3 A d' research , development. and technological progress. The traditional
these activit 1es wiil be as shown tn Fig. 1- ccor m g to this pla n,
knowledge or practices play a very msignificant role. In such situations,
the completaon of vanous stages or jobs cannot be forecast with exact-
Excavation ness The uncertamty about a test becoming successful, or a sudden
Erect side bd. breakthro ugh m technology or know-how wJJI always provide situations
I
Pour conerete whrch WIIJ make rescheduling of various events a necessary part of the
proj ect and g~ve 1t a dynamic character which is not reflected in a bar
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 c h a rt
Weeks

FIGURE 1-3
1{1- 1.~ .. I~ONE CHARTS
Because o f rbe shortcomings or the inadequacies of the bar chart in
the sJde board erectors still have 4 weeks of wo rk a fter the excavation meet mg the requnements of the modern-day management~ efforts have
job is over. However, if due to certain unexpected difficulties the exca- been made to modtfy n by addmg new elements1 One such modificat ion
vation is delayed by 1 or 2 weeks, how will this reflect on the side was d1scussed tn Section 1.3 under "Project Progress" with reference to
board erection or the concrete pourin g job? Th is JS not revealed by the Fag. 1-4 Another rmportant modification, relatively successfult has formed
bar chart. a hnk tn the evolutiOn of the Gantt chart into the PERT or CPM network.
Th1s moddicatton 1s caJled the mtlestone system.
Project Progress Milestones are key events or points 1n orne which call be Identified
..
when completed as the project pro_g_resses. ~ th~ Gantt chart, a bar
A bar chart cannot be used as a con trol dev1ce SJnce it does not show the wh~eh represents a long-term job IS broken down to several p1eces each
progress of\\ ork. A knowledge of t he a m ou nt of work in progress or jobs of whach stands for an tdentifiable maJor event Facb event is numbered
completed is abspJuteJy necessar} tn~a dynamJc programme. Changes an and an explanatory table given. adent1fy1ng the number With the event.
plans are a neces ary part of a large project and a bar chart docs not These are specific events (poants 1n t1me) whiCh a management has
offer much a s1stance under such circ umstances. However, a conventional Jdentified as amportant reference po1nts dunng the completton of the
bar chart can be modified to give th1s addJtional JnformatJon a& shown in project This work breakdown the awareness of the Jnterdepen
F1g. 1-4. Suppose I 6 weeks have elapsed after the project ataned; the denctea betweea task
progress made n1 the p roject can be depJcted by partially fillang JJl the Fsgure 1-S shows a Gantt tba.rt and F1g 1-6 the correspondng DUle-
blank bars. Foundatwn d iggm g, accordang to Fia. 1-4, as 2 weeb b.ohiPd tone cbart. Two amportant porntJ to be nOticed are tl:uat (a) the toq-time
schedu le. JOM are Jdentiliod an terms of dwlltl or milestOnes, and (bl tbele
milestones or keJ evelltl are- apinst the ICale
Unctrtaintiea tbcir by
A bar chan does not refttct the
t1mes estimated for varaoUI acttfltict
6 PERT AND CPM
- BAR CHARTS AND MILESTONE CHAR I S 7

known as the work hreakdoun .structure or indenture level strncture. Such


I
a structure estubhshcs the hierarchical order tn a system. For example, the
I
final as embly can be broken down as shown m Fig. l-8. 1n the general
J
->- 1

J
ca~e, a system r~ broken down to sub-systems and each sub-system to
u.b -sub Y tern every one of which m turn reduces to major components,
I
mrnot components, and so on. The breakdown is continued unttl tre
I I I
I
I a scmbly 1~ reduced to elements or components representing manageable
l I I I

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 unn for planmng and control.


Units of time
FIGURE 1-5
Final assembly

.,c
M 1 rn
sM
3 ro rn
- ., 6 [1] liD m Sub- assembly Sub- assembly

-
Component Component
FIGURE 1-6

mterdependencJes bet~ een events. In a milestone chart, the events are in


chronologJcal, but not Jn a logical, equence. A natural extenston of the
milestone chart \\a~ the network, where the events are connected b} Element Element
arrows 10 a logtcal sequence. This is sho\\ n in Ftg. I -7.

FIGURE 1-8
.,
M
-uc
.,., 1 2
The eral units m the breakdown could be eJther end-item oriented
or product onented. The end-Hem o nented units are the ones which
.,c form a necessary part of the final 1tem. These could be like a transmitting
.,.,
Q.
3 4 5 } tern or a control urut m the final deliverable sy~tem. The product
.,
~
onented umts mcluae ' orgamzauonaJ or servtce umts whtch are al o
-."
1: 6 7 8 9 essenLJal for the completion of a project Each untt, whether product
onented or end-1tem oriented, must be definable segments of the work
IJc
10 11 to be accomphshed, and should form key pOints, each with a time
-.,.,.
0
schedule for satisfactory completion of the entire project
~-- 13 15
1.6 CPM AND PERT ETWORJ'S
0 4 8 12 16 20 22 24 -
From the milestone chart and the work breakdown structure, there 1s a
Units of time
son of continUity to CPM and PERT networks. There are two baste
-~-~
FIGURE 1-7 elements an ~ are the actlVJty and the event smnlir
to a mdestonc). The acuvaty e i of a
1.5 WORK BREAKDOW ST.RUCfUU
proJect. It
The mJiestone charts bnng 1nto piv~re the funectonal of a hand~ etther the beJtnmns or actiVttJeS are
programme and thear jnterrelataoniiHp Dis is achieved .... by ara ows aq4
---
When all
K I'll 1 ANU t I'M BAR CHARTS AND MILESTONE CHARTS 9

trvtttc nd v n1 '" prc c!d are ..:t unt 1 d Jo ~eally and equenuall},
they form ncrw f II h nctwmk t 1hc h Jc dm.umcnt 1n a net\\ork-
b cd 01111 B nl nt }'Nl m. I anurc J .. 9 hows ho \1 the ~ nt arc connect-
d by 1d1VJIIC

(C)

FIGURE 1-10

hown 10 F1g. l-10 (a, b, and c). PERT (Program Evaluation and Revtew
Techntque) is event oriented. Figure 1-11 gives an example of a network
FIGURE 1-9
that is event oriented. Here, the interest is focused upon the start or
completion of events rather than on the activ1ties themselves . The acti-
orne jobs cnn be lnkcn up concurrently. In some cases, a job can not
vities that take place between the events arc not specified.
be undertaken unttl anorher job 1s over. For example, if co ncrete po unng
require thot foundation diggmg be complete. t hen job A represe nti ng
dtggang wiiJ have to precede job B wh1ch represen ts the p o uring of con- Coit'Plete
Start Complete Start
crete (I i ' f-lOn). A few "ays of repre~enting concu r re nt j o bs a te hown Design ..,___ Test Test
Design
rn J~Jgs J-IOb und 1-IOl;. Figure 1-lOb mtght represen t: A- manufacture
part Q, B mnnufacturc part N; C-as em ble Q a nd N. C a n )OU g1ve an
example fo1 ftg. 1-IOc?
In a network-based m~magemen t system . the strc!)S could be latd either
on the event or on the activity. A dJfference betwee n the PERT network
and the "'PM nc..:t\\ ork is t ha t one is eve nt -o rtented and the other actJvity
onented. The CPM (Crirka l Pa t h fv1ethod) a na lysis JS activit) oriented as Start
bricaticn

foundation Pour concret


A 8 FIGURE 1-11

(a) A few more differences eXJst between the CPM and PERT type of net-
works. For example, 1n a CPM-based network analysts, no allowance 1s
made for the uncertaJnUes 1n the duratJon of time anvolved. Further, in
CPM, tJme are related to costs However, the dlstJnctJon between these
two types of networks 1s dJmanashns W1th m1nor modificataons, both
have gaven nse to sevcraJ other programmes such as (Proaram
Evaluataon Procedure), LESS (I ca t Co t EsttmatJn& aad and
SCA S (Scbeduhoa and Ceatrol by In
ubsequent chapters, we ~n idcr the P.El\I )'ltean and
then tb SliCh a reduce
., aftd aid m
w~''f'lC \It

t both
10 PERT AND CPM MILESTONE CHAR13 II
Arranae 2 days
Q UESTIONS their weaknesses?
d what are h ? Arrange tea I day
1 \Vhat are Gantt charts an . ~ charts supenor to bar c arts How
'fi ay are milestone
2 In what specJ ~ \\ mrle tone chart? ? 2 The following project is to be represented by a bar chart. The duration
. a network -upenor to a k breakdO\\ n structure . for each activity is in days. These are the actual work-days. The project
JS d b a wor
3 \\'hat do you understan Y units and end-1tem oriented units commences on Wednesday, November 15, with five work-days a week.
4 \Vhat ~~ meant by product ~nented Draw the bar chart with the horizontal scale denoting calendar dates.
n a work breakdown structure- , an activity and an event. Activity I
I h d 1tference between 8 days
5 Explain clearly t e CPM network differ from a PERT Activity 2 4 day:;
.6 In what three maJor ways does a
Activity 3 7 days
network?
Activity 4 9 days
Activity 5 3 days
PROBLEMS . Activity 6 3 days
tt charts the follow mg projects, the activit ies and
1 Represent on G an . . Activity 7 14 days
theJr durations being as Jndicated. Activity 8 17 days

(a) Conducting an examination Activities I and 2 can occur concurrently. Activity 3 can take place after
activity 2 is completed. Activities 4, 6, and 3 can occur concurrently.
Design questiOnnaire 7 days
ActJV!ty 8 can start 4 days after the commencement of activity 6. Activity 7
Print quest1on paper 2 days should follow act1vity 5. Activity 5 can begin concurrently with activity 8.
Distribute to various centres 4 days 3 Refer.nng to Problem 2, answer the following:
Ans~ er questionnaJre I day (a) On what calendar date can we expect the project to be completed?
Collect answer books at main office 4 days (b) On December 3, what is the progress report?

(b) Making prints

Make free-hand sketches 2 days


Make dimensioned scale drawings 4 days
Make prints 2 days
Cut and fol d I day

(c) Making a chair (concurrent jo bs)


Make d1mensioned sketches of parts 2 days
Make legs 3 days
Make seat 2 days
Make back 2 days
Assemble parts 3 day1

(d) Holding a conference (concurrent jobs)


By mail ask members for suttable dates 6 day
Inform date to members 2 day
Prepare agenda
3daya
PERT NETWORK AND TIME ESTIMATES J3

no arttvJty may be completed unttl the event precedtng tt has


occurred . Followang this, event 7 cannot occur unttJ actJVIltes J and

2 II arc complete and these acttvittcs cannot take place unttl their
preced1ng events 4 and 3 have occurred . Event 4 cannot take
place until actJvtty B has been completed and event 3 cannot take

PERT Network an d T me
1 Estimates pia e unttl acttvttJes C and G arc complete. Sm1tlarfy, we can work
backward s until we come to event J. Hence, event 7 cannot take
place unttl activities A, B, C, G, J, and II have been completed.
The e dJstrngUJsh between a succe~sor event and a predecessor event.

2 l EVENTS A D ACTIVITIES .
PERT network. As noted 1n Chapter 1, J
Here, we hall conc~ntrate on tldle L t s recaJI the mea ning o f a n event:
the PERT net\\ ork ~~ e'vent-base . e u . . . G
(a) It must md 1cate a notewor thy or significant po1nt 1n the proJect.
(b) It IS the start or completiOn of a JOb.
A
(c) It does not consume ttme or resources.
Examples of what an e\ ent ts and what it Js not a rc:
FoundatiOn dtgging started : is a PERT event
Foundation ts being dug : 15 not a PERT eve nt
Assemble parts A and B : JS not a PER T eve nt
Electrical destgn completed : IS a PERT e\:ent
FIGURE 2-J
In practtce~ the words '"starf'" and "corn plet~" a re, res ~ect i\ ely, short-
ened to s and c. Further, the bubbJe or the ctrcle de notJng an event JS c n r " the problem ot drawing a network for a particular pro-
given shortened descnpttons, such as "' S fo undatio n" . In a networ~~ the L t e problem be of openmg a new office for a commercial atrline
events fall in a Jogtcal sequence, and therefore the pe~son prepanng a d e"' pec1fic C\ents be considered. F1rst, we look for a stte or
network must ask himself the following questions regard1ng the sequence: ( I n r the office After lookmg over several areas near the busy
foe It e elect a particular street where several burldmgs may be avail-
(a) What event or events must be com pleted before the particular
event can start? abe n rent A particular building IS selected and the following events
re urn d t take place m some sequence. We shall number these
(b) \Vhat event or events foJJow this? e en
(c) What acti\ ities can be accomplished simultaneously?
E enI Locataon of 1te tarted
E,. ent or e\ients that immediately come before another event without
E ent 2 Locat1on of Jte completed
a ny interve mng events a re called predecessor e ents to that event.
Event 3 Bwkhng for office elected
Event or events that immediately folio\\ another event without any
mterveni ng C\ ents are call ed successor eents to that event. E ent 4 : Cleaning of office bu1ldJng tarted
Cons1der the PERT network shown in Fig. 2-J. The events are Event S lntenor decorator start work
n umbered 1 th ro ug h 8 a nd the acttvitJes are des1gnated A through L. R~ Event 6 lntenor decorator fina he work
member that a PERT activity is the actual performance of a task. It II Event 7 Openang of new office advertascd or announced
the tune-consummg portio n of a PERT network and requtres manpower E ent 8 LISt or IQVItees for the opentng day ,repatH
materral, faciJitres, space, and other resources. In thti network:
Event 9 lnvttataoas sent
Event 5 cannot take place until actavJties .A and D have been
Event 10 formally u ..
t: ompleted. Event 7 cannot take place untd acttvaues A. B, C, 0, I.
and H have been completed. Note that no event can be THe rt t1lil
reached until all actJVJtJes Ieadaa to the CYcut are uo that acti -.. . .
14 PeRl AND <.."PM
PERf NETWORK AND fJME ESTIMATES
15
be co1ln ...... ucd ro c\ent 6. .1
the net\\ Oil\
rl!prcscn ti nl! a prOJect
d tl
may not LOOP NE1 WORK
rt s hou ld be noted that r may ~on<..Ct\,a bh., tff t\ C 4l t a 1 e rc nt type
4

look umquc. Another p 1anne One of tht" Jmportant po1nts to keep an mind IS to avoid a Joop network.
1 hi s may occur tn complicated networks. An example JS shown Jn Fig. 2-4.
Here, event 2 cannot occur untJI activity E IS over whtch in turn cannot
take place until event 5 ha taken place. Event 5 cannot occur until C'-ent
2 ha taken place. Hence, there JS a kind of gotng back on t1me or the
JormatJOn ot a loop. ThJs may oc<.:ur Ill td\ ertently from duphcating event
~10

7 1

FIG RE 2-2

of net\\ork ba ed upon h ~ dect 100 a~ to wh1ch events !)ho ul<l preced e or


occur concurrent I). Thi.s ~ perfedly all nght. FIGURE 2-4

2.2 HI ~T .. FOR DRA\\'ING 1 'ET\\ ORK numbers or repetJtJon of a parttcular act I\ tty, or while transcribmg d.tta
m ccurately. A method by" hich event <~renumbered in a logical sequence
GE ERAL POJNlS
and the po JbthtJe of loop networks nr(; reduced will be descnbed in
1any of the rules for drawing the ne.l\\ ork arc bd e d o n com~~on en e .ect1 n 2.4
A few examples whrch belong to thts category a rc ho\\ ~ 1n F.Jg. 1--3. ln
Fig. 2-3a. the arro\~S eros each other. Th is s hould be a votdcd , tf po 1ble, DUMMIES
as shown 111 F1g. 2-3b. ln F1g. 2-3c. It is stressed that the arrows should Jn c nnecung e\ent by activities showtng the1r rntcrdcpendencrcs, very
often atuatton anses where a certain cvent j ~annot occur unttl another
event 1 has taken place; but, the actrv1ty connectmg i and J wtll not involve
3 ny reaJ ttme or expenditure of other rc ources. ln uch a case, 1 1 a
1 con tra nt upon wtth a dummJ actb uy connecting the two e ents. Con-
4 SJder the example of a car taken (0 a garage for cleaning. The in Jde as
we I as the outsade of the car IS to be cleaned before Jt IS taken away from
(aJ Wrong method the garage. The events can be put down a follows
-ib) Wrong ~~eftlod
Event J : Start car from house
Event 2 Park car n garage
5
Event 3 : Complete outs1de cleamng
1 ~--- 2 Event 4 :Complete 1nsade cfeanang
Event S Take car from garase
Evoat 6 Park car tn bou e
(c) Corre.ct Method
, Condcr tbt: network hown aa Fa. 2-5 for tbt project. .JI,. as ~4
(dJ Wrongftlld that tna~do cleamq &1ld outside deaaiaa be doQO eoueurre.Q.tly ~ t
FIGU.R.E 2-3 Aeti Uiea A Dd C q
do D and B for ne..-
be ~tra1ght and not curved as in FI.J .2-Jd Jt 11 a dll
1ep the angles enclosed between e~Jit$ JOe)
16 PER 1 .. P CPM h them fro m real tl me-con~ PERf Nl fWORK AND fiME ESTIMATES 17
. dl\ungut!'
. d b\ da hcd hne to b dr.t\\ n in n better ma n ner
u"uall) mdJ ate ., henet\\OtkC~ln e excavatiOn is completed. 1 he dummy ttCtJVJlJcs are ~hown by dashed l1nes.
t
umrng actl\' e-... Ho\\e,er. t

Excovotim Excavation
started t----- completed
..... ,0
.....
F
A

'
FIGURE 2-5 Shutterin
started
nts w th i~ figure are obvJous. I he
as shcJ\\ n in Frg 2-6 The m 1 p ro,eme
been redu ced tO one. Event 4 does not occur
t\\ o dumm) arro\\ s h:n e FIGURE 2-7

1tx1:avahon Excavation Shuttermg


I Started Completed
A Completed
fO
I
FIGURE 2-8

art A of Part B of
Excavation
FIGURE 2-6 Started 1---
Excavation .,.___ Excavat1on
Completed Completed
untJ 1 even t 3 h "~s occurred -they may occur co ncurrent I) . E\ ent 5f has

been remo\ e d smce 1t , ~ ob\'IOUs that the car has to be taken out o the
garage before 1 can be brought back home. : I I
In the majonty of the PERT networks whe re am b1g urtres are not caused,
I I
I I
the start bubble or cJrcJe IS omrtted and onl) the completed event
recorded, it being undenstood that the starl e\ ent must have taken place
before the completed event l:a n occur.
Shuttenng Shuttenng Shutterang
Started Part Completed
PARTIAL CONS1 RA I N f Completed

There l$ another case where the occurrence of an event as partially depen-


dent on another actlvtty bei ng completed. By thrs, we mean that e ent l FIGURE 2-9
can not occur until at least a part of actiVIty J rs overp Con 1der for
exa mple. a fo undatwn laying project; the erection of s1de bdards ~
shutte1mg need not waJt until the excavatJon JS completed. Whde <ll f The PERT P,Janner cau build h1s network an one of two ways One
dctinHcly be done, rt would be economJcaUy poor planntD8 ~ approacb auld be to start from an anitiaJ or a startaq ewmt u build
shows th1s poor plannmg graphically. In Ftg. 2-8, the ume up eats aod utNtesuntiJ the ond Utis
repeated but wJthout the ''ShutterJng Started" operatton lace '
the planner keeps on thinkana ' bat ' ll ....

can take place concur.,._u ' a co.


Completed'' 10drcates that Jt must have ttartecb 2-P
proved plannJng where the beca'* the .c!tvit~ ..
..

25 II"EfSIL\IA1:ES

.,,. ,;

cvuuatJoo of die a job D


~ pre r e to Je1 JOb doae 111 IJJc
the ol lllc 11&
d&atel of a
-
.,. drDrt 10 !1=1
C:llt 10 IDIDY aathe
f lu c:o.pia -=ltu
lira tee
--
. c _t lite Idled it.. To
~

of t ' I
ue
a 1M O,IWsdc T..e
poail* r.a.e .. llidl . .
boa... attllia
Bcaerdlall . . . . .
of die
~~~ -- r t:KT A 0 CPM b d n
PERT NETWORK AND TJM E ESTIMATES 23
not large S1ra1ilarl '.. the pe '~imi
uc esum \\ Jll",, beunu
te a ,. Ulll
a TJ ua fl
a large ""a b co -f
nutn er
0 Consider the case of 70 measurements, in metres, qf the stoppmg diS-
d it ion a nd uch m t nee are a J mall 1er cJ" kely t ime c tm1a te If we tances of cars. Tbe cars are assumed to be travelling at the same speed
case ~ h ich fall under the categor)
n- of tbe nt t hi1
, have u shape s hown in before tbe brakes are applied. Tbe road conditions a re a ssumed to be tbe
1~ ere to dra" a di tnbuuon . cune.. n \\ ould roug pomt B to tp, an d P otnt C .to
F ig. 2- I 2. Point would correspond
1
~~ a~
rn gle hump (as shown. In
tances.for all cars. The data shown m Table 2-1 gives the stopping dis-
same
IL Frequencl J , nbution cune havt g l f thc cune ts symmctncal
-
F ig. 2-1 2) are g nerally e un c~
d ;111vdal Clltl'l',.
d
1 111
bution properties. tt t no w n
k .
-
TABLE 2-l
on either ide of tL and exhibtt certarn a skew\\ hich could be left- 76 53 -
as a normal rune; otherw1. e. 1t 5 a 1d to 11a ' e (: . 64 -
62 40 56
ppo~e,
30 34 60
or right- tded_ sho 1, n in Fig. 2-13. Su for 44 6J
39 43 38 58
C"'n Jder the four dtstnbution cun c k h following time estunates 44 54 72
four different actJVJtJe
. 0 f a PERT networ ' t e 36 46 76 38
ere obtained: 63 57 42
45 53 27 48
35 32 59
'untber lo lp 63 55 47 58
53 44 36
47 64 52 46
Actl\ ity l 3 6 9 54 65 51
56 66 56 65
Act ivity 2 5 6 9 69 59 68
. . .... 44 67
Actn It\.. .> 3 6 7 55 21 52 58
81 64 22
Activity 4 5 6 7 74 84 72 37
42 41 75 55
Obvtously, t 2
the cur\! e 1. n F Jg. 2- 13a correspo nds to actt~
. J. y ' The interest now is on the data which tells how many cars stopped in a
given interval of distance. The statistical pattern wbicb gives this informa-
the curve 1n F Jg.. 2- I3b corresponds to . . I'
acttVJty
tion is called the frequency distribution, i.e., this tells bow frequently a car
. F.Jg. 2- 13c corresponds to actJVJty
the CUr\'C JO . . 4,
can be stopped within a given range. The table gives tbe information that
the curve n. F.g. 2- I 3d co rresponds to actJVJty 3. the stopping distances vary from about 20 metres to about 85 metres. Let
us divide this range into 10 equal dtvisions and count the number of cars
falling into each division as shown in Table 2-2.
,
I
r TABLE2-2
'' I
I ---------------------------------------~
Class interJ~a/
. _._. ,
I
____ _ I
I
(metres) Tally
-- - --J- t Frequ~ncy
to tl P - - - - ..J~----t 20 to 29
t0 'L P Ill
30 to 39 3
f a)
(b)
IIIII /IIIII
40 to 49 J1
IIIII IIIII IIIII
50 to 59 15
r /Ill IIIII IIIII IIIII
I 60 to 69 20
II I Ill/ I II 14
I 70 to 79
III I
, r 80 to 89 6
1
~- -.l' __
to
,
tl P -------L--
ta. tp
TJJe iQformatiou atven 1n Table 22
the ranan cboaeu
be
OD
(c) , portJoaaJ to tbe frcqueucy d

24 PERT AND CPM The vertical axis
PERT NETWORK AND TIM ESTIMATES 25
4
. 'hown io Fig. 2-l : s called the fre-
ghlSiogram which, for thi case. I a given range. ThiS/ ency per 10 This mean s that individual propert1es will be shown more prommently.
ives the number of cars stopping Jn b a i "ill read requ
quency per given range. I n our case ' t e For our a nalysJs. we are interested 1n group behaviour, and hence a
metres. uita ble range should be chosen to g1ve the correct picture.
If th e midpoints of the top Sides of the rectangles are joined by straight
lines, \\ e get what is known a the frequenc.J polygon. Fig. 2-14. If the
30
number of cases considered (here, the number of cars) is large, we can
=
-E.,~
reduce the interval (from the present I 0 metres). llnd the frequen cy polygon
will consist of short but a large number of stra1ght lines. In the hmit, the
polygon will assume the shape of a smooth curve, also known as the fre.
-0

~
G
20
'
quency distnbution curve, F1g. 2-15 .

a. PROBLEMS
>- \
u
.,
c: 10
/
\
1 Number the events in the network in Fig. 216 accord mg to the
:J '\
.,
t::r
/
Fulkerson rule, in steps of 10. The start event is numbered 10.
'-
u. '
0 20 4~ 60 80
Stopping drstance in tnetres

FIGURE 2-14

In . F. 2- 14 the two adjacen


. t ranges
. such as 20
drawing the h1stogram, 1g. ' h h - e no gap left between
d t t uch eac ot er, 1. ., 15 I
to 29 and 30 to 39 a re ma _e o o rom 10 metres to some other va ue,
29 and 30. If the range IS c~J_anged ti S aller the ra nge, more promt-
the data will give a differen~ bJst?gram~t;;en the bars in that histogram.
nent will be the differences zn hetghts
80
FIGURE 2-16

2 Dra the network for the following project and number the events
accordtng to Fulkerson's rule:
60
EFI!nt number
.v; Preced~d by
....
a
u
A
Start event
- 40 B
0 A
0
z
c B
D
B
20 E
D
F
B
G
E
H G,E
0 20 40 10 10 IJO J
D,F,H.
Stepping K
C.J
L
26 PERT AND CPM

g project:
3 Draw a PERT network for the fol1O\\lD
, h end event
A JS the first or start event and K t e
J is a succes or event to F
C and Dare succes or events to B
3
D is a prede~essor event to G
E and F occur after event C
E precede F des H
Reduction of Data
c restrain the occurrence of G and G prcce
H precedes J
F restrains the occurrence of H 3.1 MEAN, VARIANCE, AND STANDARD DEVIATION
K succeed event J d the m a rks scored by We observed in Section 2.7 that statistical data for the varying durations
. . e involved an
4 In an exam1natton, 70 boys wer . . T ble 2_1. Draw a htstogram of tame that jobs of a particular type consumed can be expressed in the
them out of a possible hundred are given tn a nges in steps of 5, i.e., 20, form of a frequency distnbution curve. When such a curve is given,
F h h . tal axis choose ra
for tht case. or t e ortzon . . ' .d 1 cha racteristics a re brought out. certaJn aspects of the characteristics of the distribution are noticeable.
25, 30~ and so on. Observe how rndrvt ua One of them, for example, is the range, i.e., the difference between the
longest and the shortest time taken by the job. The other would be the
mean tim~ or the al'erage tinte taken for the completion of the job. But a
more comp]ete description of the distribution is obtained if we include
some measure of 1ts spread or dispersion . Of course, one such measure
could be to ay that the time taken for the execution of the job is 40-75
day , 1 e . the range 75 - 40 = 35 days gives some idea about the dispersion.
But the range 1 an unsatisfactory way of describing the spread or dis-
per ton, be ause. 1n calculating it, we consider just two values of the time,
the longe l duration (75 days) and the shortest duration (40 days) taken
by the job. All the Intermediate times are ignored. So, the range alone
cannot g1ve an 1dea about the dispersion. A more satisfactory measure is
called the lllTUliJC~. Th1s 1s calculated as follows:
(a) Obtain the mean of the dJstributJon.
(b) Deternaine the devaation of each individual figure from the mean.
(c) Square these ind1vidual devJatJons.
(d) Ftnd the mean of the squared devaat1ons. This is the vanance.
Before we take a specific example, notice step (c) JD th11 procedure.
The indJvidual devJations are squared before ftndin& tbear mean. Tbc
devaations from the mean could be poa1ttve or neptave. If the mean of
these devaationa 11 found wathout aquarana, we could &et a value like
zero, whJCh tmpUes no deviation at aJI from the mea a. However, tho mn
of the squared devaataooa waU never be zero union tndivactual devaa-
tlon 11 zero.
The square root of the varsance 11 known as ,,.,.,d
We shall consader ao to thae ponltl dear
data hu collected for the qf l9
leoJlk of trench under varyeq ata
able 3-1
Th1 I th
t nd e , t n. nd L b\ .
o . noth er f. tur... tb 1
<OF

n u rn F1... - 1
4

6- 6_ 60 the ume t n 51 d hi h rre. p nd t th t n Sl p th


..I -- ~r a nd i the mo-t h el ume fi r the m le h . n fth J Tb 1, n n
10
the r e. if th frequ nc~ d1 tnbut1 n ur 1 .. ) mn1 tr 1 ut lb ..
<1500
m ode. the me n (centre f grn t. in d nth them e. Tht t e
c se ith norm 1 d i tn uti on cun e menu ne-d 10 h pt r .. If th un e
rt 0 thi~ l o n 1n F1 3.. 1. J n ot mmetn l, then it i 1d to i\-ed nd the ~ lu of t
and the mode sre different.
~ betber the fr~uen ) d1 nbut1on un ~~ 1 r e . th
6:0 ...
fo reeoing method of c.a) ul ting the m"" n, th ' nan , nd th tand rd
50 10- devtatio n rema1n unaltered.

Ln ~ 3.2 PROBABILITY Dl RIB TIO


Clo el) odated \\ ith a frequen ) dt tribuuon ur~e Js the prohGlu1in
dutrtbuJion curre ~ bich ' " ill be Introduced in t hi section.
-
0
3.0 1-
e all ba\ e orne notion of tbe "W or d prob bibt) . It 1 onnected with
20 1-
the ord chance and unc rtaint). hen we a) " n i probablt gOJng to
nun tht e ening~, "e m ean we a re not certatn Jt i gomgto rain, but based
0 1- upon orne tnformauon, e.g., "eather condnion the han :e re that 1t 1
go 1ng to ra~n. There 1 a n element of uncertamt) n~ ol ed. In probab1lit
o~ -. I
nal... , e try to assocJate numbers w1th uncertamties.. Let u con 1der
40 so 60 70 10 a box conta1n1ng a large number of electnc bulbs a few ofwh1ch ar defec-
o. of days
u ~:e Suppose we ask "what is the probabl11ty of p1ckm! up a defect1
IG ~RE 3-J bu bfJ .. and t he answer~ let u say, IS 10C! 0 The meaning of uch a tate-
ment 1s that 1f we ptcked up 10 bulbs from the box, the chances are that
from the data gJ\ en Jn Table 3-l. we can calculate the mea n or average there ill be o ne defective bulb 10 that loL , it as also
Jme taken fo r the executton of the job. Let u a urne that we arnve at a that all the 10 bulbs are semceable, JD whJCh aostance, if
.al e 52 S day as the m,ean .. The range ts 76 - 40 = 36 days. sec~nd set of 10 bulbs, tbe chances are that there ill be
e :no cal ulate the devmt on of each enrry Jn Table 3-1 from the bulbs, thus making an average of one defect~ bulb per 10. e aM aot
~n a follow definite that one bulb out of every 10 bulbs chosen will be
1f bulbs are chosen and, out of these, 11 arc found to be
48 S2,.S - - 4. 51 ratto n N will be approxnnately equal to ~l 11faar laqt.
76 - S2 S + 23 S, the value of N, closer wiU be the
52 52.5 (),5, Let us next consider aD eumpl_l of,
and r.o on ~ Let us assume that a contractor ttuikla 1
Hy quan n1 the e devaatso n , we get circumstances apd tbat the ~
( 4.5f l. 20 25, s
{ 23 5)2 552 2S.
( 0 )2 0 2S.
and 10 on
cl
30 PERT A '0 CP f

Ba ed upon the data gh en, if we as k "what t the prohahihty of building


a hou e \\ ithan 50 day ?", the an wcr i gt en as th e 1 atio ot the number the lnrm v /(.x ), whetc / (x) ~ the J)rohabJhty d n 1ty funct1 n. 1 e
of bou~es built in 50 da) to the total number o t ho u e con t ructed, 1.e., were t o a k "w ha t is the pr ob. hJitty of toppJn' a c r rlhm 45 m r '
- 100 = 0.0- or -o 0 probabiHt . in1ilarly~ the probability of build ing a the a nswer given 1 t he rutw ,,f the area under th curve up to Jme AIJ ,
the a rea undct th e cn tirc curve. Smcc th lf1tal ar a und r th cur e h
hou e \\ athm 70 day will be
been norm alilcd, i.e., mude equal to unny, the probahthty of (1 c r t p
20 ..l.. 30 + ] 5 +5= 0 7 or
in , witlun 45 metres IS equal to the haded rea.
100 70% Sunila rly, if we wa nt to calculate the probabiiJty of a car com10 t
sto p between 70 metre a nd 80 met res, It w1ll be equaJ tel th ttrea und r the
and that of build1ng a hou e ' ithtn 90 days, curve between vertical CD and Ji:f' passtng, re pcctJvely, through 70 1 d
HO (J1g. 3-2).
92 100 = 0.92 or
In Section 2. 7~ we de cribed how observatiO n~ on a co ntinuou van ate 3.3 THE NORMAL OISTRJHUTION
can be plotted as a hi togram. As more and more observation~ are taken, Tbc normal or Gau.\ sian dr~ tr ibu tion IS one of the very Important ds tnb
and the class interval is made smaller, the htstogra m te nth to become a tions 5tncc it has a Wide range of practrcal apphcat1on . It 1S omeum
mooth curve, known a$ the freq uency dist ribuuon curve (f tg. 21 5). If the referred to as the bell-shaped dtstn huuon because the curve resemb e
heJght of the curve is standard ized so that t he area underneath it ts equal a bell. A typical normal distribution cu1 ve JS shown Jn FJg. 3-3. A c n ~
to untty then the graph is called a probaoility di ~tn buuon curve .. The noticed, the curve JS symmetrical ahout the pomt x = IL Thts 1 the mean
height of the probability curve at some po int x is usually denoted by of the distnbution .
f(x). This function is called the probability density fun ction. This non
negative function IS such that t he a rea under the probability curve is

un ny, I.e. crf(x)
+
f(x) dx = I.
-- 0. 4
I
It 1 tmp o rta nt to realtze tha t f (x) is not the probability of o bservtng x.
To ma ke the discussion clear, Jet us recaiJ the example of t he stopping dts-
0 .3 I
tances of ca rs di cussed Jn Secuon 2. 7. When the class interval ts made I
0. 2 I
smaller so t hat a smooth frequency curve is obtained a nd the height adJust-
I
ed to m a ke the a rea under the curve unity, \\ e get the probab11ity curve as 0.1 I
h own 10 Fig 3-2. The c urve can then be represen ted by a n equat ion of I
X
~J.-C1' 11- I' I' fl' I' 2fT
y: f ( X )
FIGURE 3-3
B
The probability curve can be represented mathemauoally by

ji(x ) ( I ) exp l - (x 1')2 (2al)),


v'(2tr)cr
where I' and a ue parameters uch that o is pater tban
between +oo and ao It not to
formula However, I aoneral pole ~'
t~bould be undo toOd Otven the va o ~'.......,~...~
JO A 10 70 10 d11trihution
0 10
SWpplng .mnc emetrl It c.:an be
equal to
2 PERT A D l,..,n

equa to o. h 1 orth remembenng that the value off(- ) is neglagibJe for REDUC'TION OF OAT A 33
uch ,; lue of x a are mor than 3o a\\ay from p..
to

-DJ TRIB 10, EstJmate by X 6 8 10


Estimate by Y 5 7 II
T naly h ve found that the betadt nbuuon curve happen to
I e faarly ll factory rc ult for mo t of the act1V1lJe Th distribution Calculating the variance, we have
curve d1fferent from the norma1 curve and ha a hape as hown in
F1 3 e h II a ~ume that the P-dJ tnbutton curve ~ JJI fit Jnto our a2
0 6
= (I ;; )2 = 0.44 for X,

1
a = <
11
i" 52
) = LOO for Y.

Hence, Y was more uncertain about his estimate than X.

-.a---
>. I 3.5 EXPECTED TIME OR A ERAGE TIME
I
0 I After havmg obta1ned-using the ft-dtstributton-the \anance and the
.a I standard de\ 1ation from the optimistic and pessimistic time esttmates,
0
'-
Q.. I the next task JS to get some tdea about the average ume taken for the
I completion of the job. Th1s average ttrne 1 called by the PERT analysts
-A ____ ....._.......,..._,_
f __ ___ ~~~
B the expected time and rs denoted by 1. Our good fnend, Mr. StausttcJan~
once aeam comes to our rescue and suggc
~
that m ~-distnbutton we
to tL can get the average by addmg together one-sixth of the opumtsttc, two-
Time duration thud of the most likely, and one-stxth of the pessimJstJc ttme est rmates.
That 1 ,
FIGURFJ 3- 4

.
tudy. l n order to tn akc u e of Jts J;!.eneraJ charactenf.trcs , we take, an the
thco1 cllca l cu1 vc (J 1g. 3-4), point A to coinctde with t he opt ami uc ume
10 und JJ, with the pc SHIH tc tame t p, 1.e t he range 1 equal to
J)OnJ t or
(t 1 to) . 1 he n1odc 1 made to correspond w1th the most likely ume 'L 10 + 4tL + lp
f or a dJ tnbut1on of tht type, the stand,ard dev1ataon i approxunateJy 1, = 6
one rxt h oft he range, a.c .
It IS one oftbe most importanrequauons Jn PERTanalysJS.l~sbowsllow
11 to to calculate the average or expected tunc frOBJ the three ti8C - - .
The a.erage time tndiC&te$-'t'bat.1bere a fifty-fifty (;A
t..- Tl.....o. of the &ftlqc ~-
JOb done within t~.JU tlille. .aiR' ~
' I he vHrronc therefore Js expected ume wtth referc~~te to a m Jill.
actavity be opttmlstic, 1D01t Ulely tad
been J"en 10 tbe'Slart evtnd t.nd OIJ.the
.,-tlls froa.t the enat to '*
Varaance, expla1ned earher, J& a rncuure of the daJperaaoo. Si~e Jt A
d p nd on th ranae (t, to). laracr the varaance, areater wtll ~ the c
34 PI R l Nil t' l'M
REU Cl JON OF l) TA
d itTe r~ nt , a nd fo r c~1 h path we ~an l ct th r~c time est imut~ b~ ed upon
the ~)pt i n1 is t ic, the mo~t llke-lv or th pc-..-..uni t i tim estimate. In ppl ' In'! thh equ tion to CU\ it. J(}._Q, th
hese re ' roge hm " all be
+ 4(10) .,- 14 62
t=
6 6 = 10. ~.

For H.:th th -l'- 0


~

7- 12-1 8
l h\: P-da trab?tlon cune f\ r '" th ~ ot th t\ r lQ._(l m ) Pl c r
>' 9 ho" n tn ~ -6. The hne r pr 11\ln' I dh de .. the:- d s n buuon C'u n c
,,J 1nh t'' o u I h h . \\ hale lt. "01 re p nd~ t ' the htuhe. t l'X'a ~.u the
mo \ f th di tnbution~ r r pr nt the d \ ~r \1 tu;.

FIG URE ~~-5

shown in T.t blt: 3-~.

TABI..f: 3-2
--
>-
~

0 ptltni,ti 1o~t Ilk I Pt .0 l

I '
0
.0
0 I
~

Path A : I 0-20-50-:'0- 100 _7 ._\7 I


0-
l
Pn t h JJ : I O<'O-50-70- I 00 "'7
'4 A ' '
J>ath C: 10-30-70- JOO -"'' ,J
o = tt=107te10 33
Path }) : I 0- 0-fi0-90- 10 l _s - IG REJ-6

Ac vrdrn g to the o pttnl ls tl tinlt e tam t , Path D 1s Rill L n--


it takes 1he Ionge t dur 1t1 n . If the m t h kel) t1nl ~ttnl t 1
rna
+ 10
A l) r Pat h B \\ o u Id b RI Jn t h the r h n d, if t h
L. t
t1mc c tinl"lh; \\ere lO be used, P th B "ould be RITI L h 1m -
tance of l>n~ad nng n nu I p th 1 t t lh mum
re~ourc tune, n1en or n1at nal 1n th t rtJ ul r pr e
constder epar tely rhe unportanc r
L P TH. Forth ume
Rl I 10 ll) + 1
bctng. uccordtng to our pre ent kn "ledge. e ould obtatn differeal '
crat1cal Jlath depend1ng n the paru ular 11me tam te - B"t
tha a n\>l s u fi ~,;t ry. We h uld I ok: for om um fr m tlac
gaven thre tam umate htch ould be u d 111 ur T
Such a tim tamat 1 lhe er Je r ed t I
equataon
REDUCTION OF DATA 37
close the values of E IE (sum of IE' ) work out m the last column.

3.6 EXAMPLES
So f.ar in this chapter, we have discussed the met hods of calculating the
va nance, tandard deviat ion, and expected or average time for a given
activity fr om its three ttme estimates. Smce it is important to get familiar
with these operations. we shall now consider a few examples as practice
problems which wiJI also indicate the method of entering the vanous
quantities in a tabular form .
tp 10 Recollect the equations and the terms to be used:
t 0 optimistic time . /
1L : most likely time ./
t p ; pessimistic time _.
to )2
0l : variance, calculated from {-lp
6
Actlvfly to lp .Sum of to+ 4tL + tp
ft.. le t e : expected time, calculated from
IE' 6

0-20 ExDmple 1 For the network shown in Fig. 3-8, the optimistic, most likely,
10 14 10.33
](J (J
t 1tc
an d pe s1m t 1me est 1mates are given on the arrows representmg the ,
8 JJ 8. J7 to be properly numbered accordtng to Fulkerson s
JJ th A Th
acuvaue e even s t are . . b d t
37.67
0-80 3 6 rule, the vanance .ts to be calculated ' and the expected ttme JS to e e er-
10 6. J 7
8( .. J(){) JCJ maned for each acuvity.
13 16 13

J0-20
20-.SO
8
6
10
8
J4
JJ
J 0.33
8. 17
~... ,,... ~,

l'' th /J 37. 4
50 70 s 7 10 7.17
70-JOO 7 12 us J2. J7

10-30 6 8 JO R
0-70 J2 J6 J8 I S.67
Path 35.84
70 100 7 12 )~ I 2. J 7

40
ulkIOJll rulo, tbe lnt ~ q
J() 7 9 13 9.54
Applyina
40 60 6 7 10 7 33
Path D 1nlual cveot anac:o 110 arrow 0. That
37.U
60-90 all arrow emcqiliJ
3 8 .S I 7
90-100 12 IS 21 J5 50
40
l- "'0 la c: din this w ty., we nrriv nt v nts 70 u u l HO 11 .. I Rf I>U(., I JON Of' J)Kl A 39
Ih nI t 1 ' lc utter l>c
r c t:Vl n . H s qu nt w IJy 1llllll he red rn t wot k i hown 111 Fi . 3 _~ng
1 he vnlucs of the variance 0 2 and the exp 1 d C
th cil rc pcctivc colum n and thctr cdculation c~ e tm~eht~ are entered in
' are ratg taorward.
Extunp/e 2 For
. the network shown m F 1g 3- JO ' we h aJl number t he
event uccordtng to "Ulkcrson's rule and calculate the va ,
expected time. nance and the

12- 14- 15

"'' >'~
0

10...12-1

FIGURE ..~-9
-
\\ e hnJl n w enter the dnta a sho\ n in ''I a b le 3-4.

T BL 3-4 FIGURE 3-10

Pr dec . _ sor Successor Fulkerson" rule y1elds the followin g. The first circle on the left-hand
to lp IE
ePent event tde betng the 1 nttial event is given the number 10. In numbering the
other event , the d ummy activaties must be treated hke any other real
10 20 12 17 4.0 11 .67
aCtl\ 1taes.
10 30 9 l1 12 0.25 I 0. 3 Ftgure 3-ll how the network with events properly numbered.
10 50 8 10 13 0.69 JO.l
_o 40 9 11 13 0.44 11 ..00
20 50 )- 8 9 0.44 7.67
.-'.>
14 18 22 1.78 I .00
30 60
17 21 1.36 17. 17 '~0
40 80 14
21 25 30 2.25 25.18
50 70
13 17 2.25 12.83
60 70 8 10-
6 9 12 1.0 9.00
70 80

ln entenng the event numbers, first the number of the start event IS
entered tn the predecessor-event column. ext, Jn the successor-event
column, the events connected to the start event (10 in th1s case) are enter-
ed w1th the numbers Jn the ascendtng order. For example, events 20, 30
and 50 are connected to lO After exhausting all the evenu connected to 10, 3-11
we g.o to tbe next hagber number, J.c., 20, an the predecessor-event column
Thls event 20 IS connected-to 40 and SO wbtcb are entered ID the
Table ~s JIVCI t11c of
event column. Th1s procesa 11 earned on uatil uch tame as all the
a.!'e entere4. that the
REDUCTlON OF DATA 41
TABLE 3-5

Pr('deces ~or ucces~or
fp
It.
t'\'ent e\'cnt

10 20 3 6 10 1.36 6.17
10 30 7 9 12 0.70 9 .l7
10 40 6 7 12 1.0 7.67
20 40 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
20 60 8 12 17 2.25 12. 17 -
0
I
co-..
30 70 8 )3 19 3.36 13. 17 I
-.t
40 -o \
10 12 15 0.70 12.17
50 60 g 9 10 0. 11 9.00
50 100 13 16 19 1.00 16.00
60 go 12 14 15 0 .2 5 13.83 7-9-12
70 90 10 13 17 1.36 13. 17 FIGURE 3-12
80 100 4 7 10 1.00 7.00
the end event, determtne the critical path
90 ll 0 10 12 14 0.44 I 2.00 l If l is the start event ~nd 10. timate for each activity, and (b) the
100 110 6 8 12 1.00 8.33 based upon (a) the most hkely ttme es
time obtained from Problem 1.
expeeted
The predecessor and s uccessor eve nt~ are entered 1n a manner im1lar
to that explai ned 1n Example J. The o ther e ntnes are straightforward.

Q UESTION S
I What is a h istogram'!
2 \Vhy 1s 1t n ot advtsable to ta ke to o fin e a ra nge in trying to draw a
freque ncy dJstn but io n cur\ e?
3 Explain w hy the range alo ne ca nn o t describe the dispersion satis-
fac torily.
4 D efine tnea n, varia nce, a nd sta nda rd deviatjon .
S Explc1!.1 why it is. necessary to squ a re the deviations before taking thear
mean.
6 Ora w the picture of a bimoda l curve.
7 arne a few t heo ret ica l distribution curves.
8 What a re the essential features of a P-distnbution curve?
9 What as an expected or average time and how IS 1t related to a fJ-dJ&-
tnbutton curve?

PROBLEMS
1 ln the network shown (Fag 3-12). the three hmc eata
the actsvttles are andicated. Calculate the varJailce aal the
fOT each acttvtty. Enter ttie values In a filbulat
CRITIC AL PA T H M ETHOD 71

The activity or act!vtties t.h ~t. immed mtely come before another activity
with o ut any 1ntervcntng actJ VIt tes nre ca lled pretlecessor activzties to that
uctivity. Those that immedt ately fo ll ow a nother activJty Without any inter-
6 ve ning activittcs a re ca lled successor act ivities to that act 1vity.
The ac tivities arc re prese nted by arrows that are JogJcally connected Jn
order of the sequence of o perat iOns. T he begmn1ng and the end of each
etbod arrow is attached to nodes that sym bolize the events and are numbered in
ri ical Path some logical order . Consider t he network shown 1n Fig. 6-1. The even\

~
6 ' 1.~. ROD UCTIO k ba ed m a nagen1ent problems and
een di <.. U ~n g
net'' or - h
bl ms T he present c apter analyzes
h e b
S o f a r '' e n' d nah ze sue h pro e . we stated that the PERT net
PERT ''a u e 10
., In Chapter 1' d Th ' .
C P~1 tech OJques. rk is activity-base . ts does not
the~e b} t h h" CP 1 netwo . d CPM h
. ent-ba ed and t c the acth tUes an t e events.
"or J he\t PERT completel~ t~nores ents and CPM on activities. The
mean t a ha"ts on e' . A . F
ERT ho,, ever. puts cmp - ha\ e re,ealed th1s. n eventlndtcates
P_ ' of the pre' to us cbapteiS h proiect it is the start or com ple-
FIGURE 6-1
d cu Jon . oint l D t e J '

t eworth\' or s1gndicant P e time or resources. As examples, we


a no .. d d e not con5um
tion of a job an o are numbered 1 through 8 and the activtties are designated A th rough L.
r

notice that: ted . is an event Activities B, C, and D cannot take place until activity A ts completed ;
digeing star .
Fo un d atlon - . 0 activity they can be carried out simultaneously. A IS a predecessor activtty to
.1 beJng dug . IS a
Foundauon - : JS an event
act ivities B .. C, and D. Acttvity H cannot occur until activJttes C a nd
G a re completed. Activities J and G are successo r actl\ ittes to B.
Stte loca~ed :
an activity
15 C and G are predecessor acttvities to Hand .
Locate 1te .
d B . 1s an acttvtty These show what is a successor activity and a predecessor acti~ ity.
Assemble parts A a n h. many points in common. However Many of the details for PERT network discussed 1n Chapter 2 are also
P ERT a nd CPM ave da- f .a...
As '" e shall see, h CPM type of networks auer rom .. valid for CPM network. To make these similarities clear, Jet us agatn con-
there are three ways tn whtch t e sider the problem of opening a new office for an airhne company dJscuss-
PERT t) pe: . h basiS of jobs or activities instead ci ed in Section 2.1. We shaiJ restate the events used for PERT, and give the
(a) A CPM network IS bualt on t e corresponding CPM activities. The company first looks for a s1te or location
for the office in some busy locality where several butldings may be avaal-
e' ents. . t the uncertainties involved tM
CPM does not take Jnto accoun . . able on rent: A particular building i then selected. We shall con 1der a
(b) ~ the execution of a job or an acttv&ty. few of these events and the corresponding activities.
est1mat1o n of ume .or
(c) In CPM, tames are related to costs. . eds
. . . . ......... ... ,.....,...
PERT-Events
11 b ecome clearer as the dtscusson proce .
These po1n t s WI Event I : Location of stte started
Event 2 : Location of site completed
6 z DllA 1 G THE ETWORK Event 3 : Budding for office elected
1 1 1 sequence and the peJ101l-
The acttvaues an a network fal JD a ogaca h uence:
n at r tiel the following questtons regardang t e seq Event 4 : Cleanang of office ltuddang tarted
part._ . b 1 ted before a Event S : Interaor decorator start work
(a) Wbacb actavJty or actavatlcs must e comp e
Event 6 : Interior de orator tim work
adavtty caa start?
--hJ
or actavaues follow thi 'l vent 7 : Opc.nana of D w
~a be accomphabed aamultaneously?
A

05 n =
6-5
"'c
For )et a other example tn dra ?JDg t~e CP net or~ COUstdcr
~
'-
"'c:
follo\\Jng infonnation pertaio1ng to a projec : :;,
!
J. A 15 1 e first operatio ... of the project "'"'0 '-

2. F and G can be done ooncurrrently, but botl) must fo......"' ..


0 ~

"'c
~

I
~
u ~
3. F must precede H
i:1
4. J cannot begin unui both F and G are c.ompleted '
5. K is dependent on the omp1etton of both Hand J
CT

J: I '
I
l
6. K JS the final operation in the project -..
>
I
I

The corresponding network tS sho o Jn F1g. 6-6.


-ll
0 '-
:;::
a I
to=5 20

a
I

p=35 p=22
(a)

A K

te ds to be a more
com fe b-b
that ob. In t fig re
J pr ~ t 23
FIGURE 6-6

S1nce J cannot begin until both F and G are completed. 0


introduce a dummy arrow shown by the dashed hoe. It I
Jt JS not an activity 10 the real sense and doe not tD e Qlf
1m po.es a restriction on the occurrence of event 4.

6.3 'I HE
ne of tke eveots or nodes .. 't I
Jlf R.l 'n CP t
CRITICA L PA1 H MEl HOD 77
Pt l T n et\\ 0 1 k. " ~ U\c d ,1 ~im ilar not,lt ion t f (~cc Section 4.2) where the 6.6 A R LEFOR EVALUATI1 G TL
~ ub ~crapt r ,tood for t -' 1'c'cted time b~cnu sc of th-.: uncertainty factor
A ru Je fo1 C\ " luat ng T has bee n dJscu ed in detail an Section 4.2. It is
C'\.) tl\ld( f\: d.
stnl d as
b.S .. RLIE T E E 1T Tll\1E T/ = maxunum of (r 6 + r:!1,
Enrhc-r. an c\ ent \\,1\ de11ned u the beg1nning or the end of an activity. whet c 7 1 i t he e~ rhest time fo r event .1. 71. i the ear lie t tune for event
ln n n et\\ o rk ''he re .1ch nctivity is given a duratio n, we c..<tn peak of the 1 und t 1 l S the dura u on for job 1-}. f h1 rule is necessary when there arc
time ''hen J n c\ c nt (.an be atd to occ. ur. Fore , a n1ple, in the net work ~lore th an one predeces or e\ ent for any gtvcn event 1. Let g. lr. and i be
ho \\ n tn Fig. 68, event 1 stand ~ for the bcginn1ng of acttvity A a nd \\ e he prede e sor event t o event j, F1g. 6-1 o.
cnn say that 1t occur at tune zero. Event 2 stand~ for the end of activity
A nnd nl o fo r the beg1nning of acttvity B. 1 h1s event occurs at time equal
to 3 \\ eel. The~c event ttmcs arc entered on top of the nodes. The end
J
e \-cnt 4 occur ~.tt the e nd o f 23 weeks. TE =?
When a network 1S m o re compJic.,n ed a nd an e vent is connected by more
tha n one actn 1ty p,l th, the calcula tton need extra c:u c. onsidcr the net-
v. ork. hO\\ n Jn Ftg. 6-9. Here, e\ ent 7 1s co nnt:dcd by h\ o act ivity paths,

t :: 9
T2 =12

FIG RE 6.10

t =10 e r t he job arc


t 0, 11 - 7.
~ ;. t
0
8
oo d be one of the following:
6 TE=31
TE =18 -L J2- 20,

FIGURE 6-9 - 2 10 = 22

I = 14 ...L. 7 = 21.
1-2. 2-4, 4-7 and 1-3, 3-5, 5-7. By choosing the first pa th 1-2-4-7, event 7

can occur at timeT = 29 weeks. By selecting the second path 1-3-5-7, eveDl The maxJm m among t hese 1 22 and hence rE = 22. In words.
7 can occur at time T = 32 weeks. Accord1ng to our defination, no e~Dt the ru e can be stated as:
can be considered r eached or occurred until aU actavJtte leadtog to it a,re
con1pleted. Therefore, event 7 cannot be considered reached until activrtleJ To IM elll' ie I tune of ~ocll tlttu
1-3, 3-5, 5-7 arc fi n ished , i.e. , the earliest time for the occurrence of evea.t th~ durat1011 of 1M job
7 is 32 weeks. We sha ll denote this by Tl. t ~ al~s obtamfti.
We now consider event 9. It cannot ocour unttl event 7 hu
According to the path through even& 7, "e for event '9
would be 32 + 12 = 44 weeks. But g fa tho
path 1-3, 3-6, 6-8, 8-9. The for a-..a
3t 6f A U I
8
tively, are 8, 18, and 31 weeks.~- io chi path. 9 01.11
at T .. 31 + 15 _ -46
weeks, i.e , T' _
78 PERT A 0 CP f
CRITICAL PA J II M THOU 79
.8 A RULE Ji'OR fl:VALUATING 7 1
TE : 45 6
14 19 We ca n now fot mulntc a rule for calculut1n g the Into t nil ow able lim e fo r
12 4 anY event i . W e n~~ um c~ a s befor e, thnt} r the successor eve nt ..tnd 1 the
TL : 26 TL =45 prcdecl!sso r event. I hen,

FIGURE 6-11 'f l. m1nimum of (T/ til ),

whe n! t 1" the tlurutwn job In word !\, the rule ca n be ~to ted a :
on top of the nodes. Since JOb 3-4 takes I 9 d ays, the Jate~t tin1e by Which
JS f01 IJ.

the activity starts (w bich is t he occurre nce of e vent 3) ~~ 45 - 19 = 26. From th e lat e.\ I tun e of each event that tmmedtate/y succcr.lb 11 ,
T his 1s the Jatest t1me fo r event 3. Stmila rly, for event 2~ TL JS 26 - 14 = 12. wbtract the duratwn of the Joh which connect ~ tf am/ selecl tlu~ lolHSI
In a network ~here an event has mo re tha n o n e succes or even t, we hav of the value t; obtained.
to be careful. Cons 1der the net wo rk sh own in Fig. 6- I 2. Let us assume tha~
6.9 TABULAR ENTRY
Tl :8
-.TE=8 Tl : 36 The values o f the earliest event t1me T, and the lat est eve nt tunc T1 '"~'"
2 TE:36
be conveniently found from a tabular entry. Such u ta ble tdso help m
determ ining a few other tame elements that w1ll be d1 cus ed Inlet.
5 Consi der the net work hown m F1g. 6- 13.
14
TL 4 TL 12
Te' Te'O
1 2
TE=32 Te22
Te =22
TL = 32 7 TL22
TL :22 Te .o Te, 12
to
FIGURE 6-12 TJ. s 0 4 Te-31
TL31
the earliest time for the e nd e vent and the project comple t ion time are the
same. (In general, this need not be so. A management may require the
project to be completed in a time Jess than that taken un der normal condi-
tions. Consequently, tt may be necessar y to execute some of the jobs on & Te32
Te12
crash bas1s. e shall consider this aspect separately Jater.) The earn.& TL32
TL 14
e\ent times Te's for var ious events are shown. For end event 6, 71 G
ee and thts 1 t he project duration ti me. Hence, the lateat FIG 6-13
ttme for event 6 JS 71 = 42 week .
COn tder e\i ent 5. Job .)-J takes 6 weeks for completion IJJICC In maktng the tabular entry h wn in Tabla 6-1, it wm be COftV
late t ume for event 6 1 41 eks, event 5 can occur u late as 42 4 ment to rt ent nn& the table ith the lld attd oae be tt
. .......... Hence, Tl - 36. o 1 we come to event 4. lob U taUt I event The thttd luma 1 th
nee the late t ttme for event 6 11 42. the column eli wbicb j
e ent 4 n be 42- 34 But. Job 4-S or th a be cu
e e t t me for e\ ent S 1 36 weeks ~raa J, .,., me
ev nt 4 36 - 4 32 We ba ...,
32 d 34 For
PERT ~D CP t

.._ ....a r form. for an) gJ\en event j, \\!hen there. are:m ore than one Pr CRITICAL PATH METHOD 81
~eat e calculale all the TE. for e\ent J and u n de rs ~re th ' successor event i (note this carefully) for wh1ch the values are taken from
ne ~ . I e ~~
m 0 tho a the appropnate T. In the ne t co untn corre Pondi~ the underscored figures in the prev1ou or the tarred column. \\ hde
e\ n j.. :e enter th underscored :alue. For e a~ple, e\ ent 4 (J ~ calculating, we make entnes against the 1-th events (column tx), but while
~ t o p dJn-=- e' ent- I and 2 (l = I' -). Con Jden ng e\ ents 4 and 4 re-entering, we mark the appropnate values aga1nst thej-th events(colurnn
:e _,et seven). In th1s v.ay, we obta1n the values of TE;'s and Tt's for event 1, 1n
- the arne row.
ti: = Ti - t 4 ) = 0 - I 0 = I 0.
6.10 FORWARD PASS A D BACK"'ARD PASS
~;(
IE= (.,-2
.Z -
...
t.L
-4, = "":t - = 12.
We nouce that in calculating the earhest event times we proceeded from
the start event and arn\ed at the end event. Th1s 1s called the fontard
s ,. he m1mum \ aJue bet\\een the e t\\ o 1 12, it i under cored pass. In calculating the latest event t1mes, Y. e begm from the end event
..,.....: . . d . 4 . h
pp:ro nate 1 E This \a]ue 1~ entere aga1n t e\ent 1n t e next col O.St
and come to the start node. This is called the backuard pass. In making

the ~ntry in Table 6-1 for T~'s, we tarted from the bottom (smce the start
T_ BLE 6-1 node was at the bottom), and for n~s from the top, of the table.

Job l-J Dural tOll


SLACK TIME A D CRITICAL PATH
til)
(T)* TJ:: ( Ti)* Tl
The term slack time refers more generally to an event-cont_rolled network.
T Predecessor

ent z However. it can also be used in a CPM network ~ mce It tdentdies the
J
cratical path easily. The slack time or slack 1S the difference betwee~. the
6
.....) ... 32 1a st event time and the earliest event time, and IS denoted by T~, w nere
9 8 .) 38
- 10 32 32 22 32 tb~ supcrscnpt j indicates that the slack time refers to the j -th event.
-
6 30 32 24 32 Thus,
~

- 6 0 22 22 22 22 ,.~ = (Ti - T/;).


- ~

.) 10 20 22 12
- 22 Stnce we have, tn a T ble 6-l TJ,s and T/;'s entered in the same row,
, L d
takang tbcar difference is straightforward and this difference IS entere tn
6 4 10 22 22 12 22
6 3 8 20 22 14 22 the e gbth column. t those events for which the earliest and
T he ~ crat al pathn connec

s .
these events have zero slack tJme.
Th
e
5 2 6 10 10 6 12
latest ttmes are ~he same, J.~;s are caUed cntical activities. Tlie reason
4 2 8 12 12 4
- 12 acttvttJes connecting these no h odes the two ttme estimates
b . obvious For t ese n , .
4 1 10 10 12 2 12 for gtvang t s na_me lS ~as soon as the preceding acttvity IS over,
3 I 2 14 aT~ tbc 5amc, whach means t . th no slack if the project IS to be
12 12 12
the succeedtng activtty has to beglD : ' sb wn in Fig. 6-13, the critical
2 1 4 4 4 0 4 on schedule. For the networa. o
= ts 1-2-4-6-7-8-9 and is shown by heavy lines.
The 1xtb column contauu (Tl)*. Jt 1 be anmDJ ....
t e column, and the value rcfeq to predecessor event i An FLOAT red tb fme elements associated
t tar mark amaJar to tho one aivea before. i.e,. ua la tbc ~yaous few scdlODS. we C()Jllide ....e ~tieS aDd their start
r- nnint of mtcrcsl IS w.e '
a y ent i we apply the nile oweata. The DN' ..-- ror a pven adJVlty F
n (T! , _... e caa the oocurreace t 11ne ror the
Fgr/i#U Stlrl :clnte 11UI 11 tlae ~ fl..
rrom
whlcll t11c . . , ...- *
-
,~ PERr n PM

1
Late tart Tim Tht JS the l:tteq occurre nce tim e fo r the
at "hich the acthity nrro\\ termm.ttt! ' mmus the d u rat on fo 00Qc CRITICAL PATH METHOD 83
acth~ity, i.e. = (Tl - &'1). 1 r the he values given in the sixth and fourth columns.

Late;t Hi ti It Ti11le Th1 r the late t occ urren<e time fo r the t The second type of float defined is the "free float" for an activity. This
at \\h ich the adtvity arro\\ tcrm1natc , J.c., - Tc. . 0 0 de . based on the possibility that all events occur at their earliest times,
The e time elem ent :~re be t entered in a IJ.bular form. ln mak n ~s all activities start as early as possible. Consider two activities i-j and
entne "e notJ('e tha t the earhe t start time for acth Jt) i-j coincidesg1 the 1'.:: where the second activity j-k is a successor activity to i-j. Let the
t he late t fint h trme for actiVIty 1-1 cotnc1des with T;r.. .,...h
,, lth rest occurrence time for event i beT,; and for eventj, Tt This means
T. nd
the earliest possible start time for activity i-j is T',;, and for activity
T~. Assum~ .tha~
Ctr
e:r:
1
mlue are 1mpl)' copted from .1 table s1milar to Table 6- 1. The o ther
1 :. it is Let the duration for activity i-j be t lJ. i-j starts
time element , r. e., the earliest fin1sh and latest start trmes, a re obtain"'~
1
r' and takes tlJ units of time, and that the next actiVIty J-k cannot
1
re pect , d) b)' addmg to Tk and subtracting from Ti th e duration r:r startE because its earliest possible start time
at T~
is greater than (T1 + t 11 ) .
activity ;.;. For the net\\ o d. shown 10 F Jg. 6- I 3 and fro m the in formatro Then,
in Table 6-I, \\ e enter the \ alues as sho\v n in Table 6-2. 0
Tl - (ti: + t il)
TABLE 6-2
is called the free float for acttv1ty 1-J, J.e.,
(1 ) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) - free float for i-j = T~- (T~ +

1
Job
J

Duration
Starr
Earliest
Finish
--- Latesr
(7)
Tora/
(8) (9) (/0)
Free lndepen. =
tiJ)

Tk _ earliest finish time for i-j. ~


Start floa t
1 .-..., v Fmislz float dent float
We can restate this as follows: .
1 3 12
-
4'
- 0
0 12 '-
.( ~
....::-
2 14
4 0

0 0
~

The free float for activity i-J is the difference between ~~~ earliest
1 4 2 0 . . d the arliest start time . successor actzvlty.
10 0 10........... 0 finiSh tune an e . 57 20
--
")

., 4 8
J- 12 ......
2<
4
12
12
2 ...? 2 ..... a
For example,
: 2 he earliest finish time for acttvtty - ts
tn Table_ :. t "t ccessor activity 6-7 or 6-8 is 22. Hence,
3
- 6
-
.) 6 J 10

6 12
0
2 0
0
0
0
and
h
t e ear
the free
)
float
est start ttme aor 1 s su
for ac_hvJty
fl
. . 5-1 .lS 2 The values for free oat ave
h been
8 -:t-2 20 - 14 22
d the "independent ftoat", is also defin~d.
4 6 2 2 0
10 12- 22 - entered in column mne.
12 22
5 7
......... 10 I 0 '"'"' 20 12
~
0 0
., 0 Anoth~r type of float, te~~?~ the activity of interest and. h-i and J-k,
6 7 0 22 - .,, _,.
..._ 22
2
- 0 Its basts IS as foUows. Let 'J d essor activities (Ftg. 6-14). Let
h. h . r,
'ts latest possible moment, w IC ~s ~
22 0 be "ts edecessor an succ
6
7 8
8 8
-
10
22 30 ..... 24 32 ,- 0
2
0
2
respectively, 1 pr .
the preceding job ~-i fi~ksh a~ 1 t its earliest possible moment, which ts
22 ...... 32 .,. -
22 ,2 ~ 0 0
and the succeeding JOb J star a
8 9 6 0
32'-"" 38 32
-~ 38

0 0 0
TJ T~
J
T he t otal d uration of t ime available for any job 1s the difference bet- t eJ . Te
jk
ween Jts ear liest start t Jme and latest finish tJme. If i-j is the job under thi tiJ j ~--
t
consideration, then
m ax imum time available = T{ - T'.e. FIGURE 6-14

If job i-j reqUires only tlf un1ts of time for its execution, the total jloat fOr .. u an duration from t
TJ Then activity 1-J can take P ky Tbe dtfl'erence
11 (li
to E.
_
between ( a
rf -
'fr) with-
7i>
job i-j is the dlference between the maXJmum time available for the JOb 8 ffi n the networ
and the actual t1me at takes, that as, out an any way ec~ etuknt float, 1.e.,
and til IS called the 1' u
total float ror l-J rrl - li) - t'J

-~ 3 6-8 shown tn the network


Cunstder KtiVitv I c11e
... for lae activity llliaua itt an Pia. 6-15. for the jM pr..tiaJ6-I 11
by th The latest fiailb tame

CRITICAl PATH MEl HOD 85


(h) lloJding a conference
By mail ask members for uitablc dates 6 days
Inform date to memhcrs 2 days
Prepore agenda 3 dnvs

Send agenda and relevant matenal to
tncmbers by mail 4 days
Arrange conference room 2 days
Arrange refrc hments I day

FIGURE 6-JS 2 You and your col1cagues arc desirous of organizrng a symposmm on
Atr Conditioning nnd Refrigeration. 1t is suppo cd to be a 2dny pro-
st rt time for the job succ eding 6-8 is 32. The differc nee between th gramme with 2 general letturcs and about 16 paper-reading sessions.
rwo is 1o. but the actn ity t ,tkcs o nly R unit of time. It tndcpcndent ftese A sume that the following activities with their duration times arc involved
ll Jere [iOtc 1.. -., untl. s o f tnne.
. . . 1-4 has an independoat
.tntJ Iar1y, u ~t1V1ty and that the work can be hared among t you;
flout of 2. ent
Fix the date of the symposium 1n l:onsultntion
w1th the head of in titution 2 days
QUESTIONS
rormulnte the theme of the sympo ium 2 day
1 Distingui h between an activity and an event.
Colle t the name and addres c ot persons
2 Identify the event and the activities Jn the following: to whom Jnformntion should be sent 4 days
(a) Drive the pHcs Get the bro hure and tc hnical p~lpcr rcqu\;st
(b) Foundation erected pnnted 6 days
(c) Tenlpcrature ntcasured F1n hz.e the electiOn of two guc~t speakers 1 day
(d) Heat-treat the contponcnt end 1n' 1tattons to the two guest speakers 1 day
(c) Cure th concrete M II brochure and technical paper request to all
3 day
(f) Door frame hxcd per on
45 dnys
3 State ulkerson s rule for numbering the nodes in a network. Collect all ubmttted paper
4 What is the difference between the time estimates of a PERT activity Re Je\\ the paper and lect the final papers to
10 days
and a CPM activity'! be re d at the ympo aum
5 Justify the three time estimates of a PERT actJvity. Inform the authors about the acceptance or
reje tion of papers and tame of pre entauon of
6 What is a float and how s it u eful in a CPM network? 7dy
accepted papers
6da
PROBLEMS Arrange accommodauon and meal
Arr nge transportataon
1 For the following two projects, state the problem in terms of eventJ Arrange lecture balls, pubhc addre y tcms, etc.
and draw the event oriented networks:
Prepare antroductory apcecb
(a) Conduettng an examsnatson A aaau duuea to vanoua oluntoer
Desisn quCitioDnaare 7 day
Wath th e pre arran Ul
Prmt
2 ) Dcten11ine tho auaimum
bofon
- (b)
86 PERT A D CPM

tc) Ghe the progre s report at the end of the 55th day.
d) Anal) ze the net\\ or ~ tn regard to I..tc t1me car lie t e\ ent f 1
tnes
e\ ent t1me ~.
and late
.
t
(e) Ca cu ~1t ~ the total ft.oat. free float, and independe nt float for
each
,
7
actJV:Jty.

Project Cost Analysis

7.1 COST VERSUS TIME


So far, weh have discussed
, the problem
. of representt'ng a proJect
b y a net-
work w1t a VIC\\ to determtmng the critical and sub-crittcal th Th
.
~ect o f de t ermtntng

t h e cnttcal
path was to identsfy tho pa s. e
0b . . . se actJVJtle or
event that need attentJon
etther In completitH!
... the pro,iect
J 0 r tn re d ucm
e.
the t1me for completion. ....
In qu1~e a ~umber . of instances, it would be desirable to cut down the
total project time. Th1s naturally leads to cost considerations. In certam
circumst~nce~, the cost .is of no consideratiOn ; time is most important.
Such a satuation n1a) anse, for example, in the event of a national emer-
gency. The sur n a l of a nata on may be thought to depend on the com-
pletion of certa1n activities. Stmilarly. in the development of a new weapon
system, cost considerations are less important as compared to the time
factor. However, such cases are rare. The present chapter will deal with
situations where a decrease or increase in the total duration for the comp-
letion of a project wiU be closely tied with the increase or decrease in the
cost of the project.
Consider, as an illustration, a project concerning a budding construc-
tion. Let one of the activities be digging the foundation. This activaty
takes 5 days wtth one machine and one operator. The operator cost is
S 20 per day, whereas the charges for hiring a machine are$ 100 per day.
The total cost for the actJvity wlll, under normal conditions, be $ 600. If
tt were possible to hire an addational machine and one more operator both
at the same rate as before, the durataon of ttme for dtgging might come
down to 3 days bot the cost would go up to 720, wbacb means an increase
of $ 120 in the cost of the activaty. On the other hand, 1f the first operator
agrees to work overt1mc at double pay an extra machme) tnd
finaahes the JOb tn 4 days, the tJJDe saved ill be 1 day. The"'COil of' the
acttv1ty will then be
-14&G
4 days at normal rates 400 80 +
1 day at double pay -
80
QOrlnal tor
88 PERT AND Cl'M
PROJ CCT COS f ANALYSIS 89
job may either go up or come down depending o n the na t u r e of
and the manner of achie"ing the reduction in time. the job ,~ ith ti1ne, as shown tn Fig. 7-2. The cot s1ope IS t h en defined as
Usuaiiy, the cost of a project goes up if the project tim e 15 cra5h co t - nor rna 1 cost
The example discussed is an exception mce the reduction in hme reduced. cost slope =
norn1aJ t1me - crash tme
is achieved by paying overtime (at double pay) to the operator. Suc~nd.cost
tions occur when the machine time is generally n1ore va lu a ble tl Sttua.. T. his is the rate of increase 1n the <.;OSt of the act lVtty
per umt decrea e in
operators ttme. Another example of thi categor) could be in the lan the tunc.
computer. \Vhen a computer i hired by a management~ it 1s necc use of a
keep it bu y by employing enough number of operator& a nd progr~sary to
In the following analysis.. we shall assun1e that the cost of a pro.mmers.
up if the normal time for its completion is reduced. J\;;:ct g~,
Consider Fig 7- 1 which shows variation in the cost o f a n activt 1
time. Tv. o potnts that require attention here are the n o rmal tin,1e YdWith
h A - ::'!.!
eras time. ssoc1ated with a gtven activity a re a n o rmal time ~ .
an the
-"' -
tit
l
completiOn, potnt A, and a crash time for its com pletion, point B~~= 0 '
I
0
(.J I
I
- (.)
I
I I
I I
I I

Crash Normal Crash Normal


Time~ Time

'
I FIGURE 7-2 FIGURE 7-3
-"'
0
I
I If at is felt that the representatton in Fig. 7-2 is too rough an approxi-
0
'
I
mation, Ftg. 7-3 m1ght then give a better representation. In this figure,
there are more than one cost slope. While the segmented approximation
I I'
mtght be more accurate, it makes calculations more involved.
'8 I
A The use of a single cost slope or a multiple cost slope depends on how
Crash time Normal time non-linear ts the cost-time curve. Further, it is a matter of judgement bet-
Duration for the job ween Inaccurate-but-convenient and more-accurate-but-involved calcula-
taons. If the cost slope curve appears as is shown in Fig. 7-4, a segmented
FIGURE 7-1 approxtmatJon would be more accurate than a stngle cost slope cune. On
the other hand, if the true cost slope curve IS as given in Fig. 7-5, a stnugbt
crash tim e limit imposes the c ondition th t the d
rea uc . canno
t be .-...... 1
hne approxtmation would then be quite satisfactory. In general, it IS left ro
----_.;.e~. . ts IS r epresente 1n t e figure by making the cost infinite
r s
t he cr ash. ttme tm1"t 1m1tarly, by extending the duration beyond
normal tl~e, the co t w ill not be reduced, and this is revealed by
asympto ttc nature of the curve .

.1 thhe normal ~ou~se of activities, the cost may be expected to JO
Wtt 1t t e decrease 1n t 1me h . .
so in the as s own JD FJg. 7-l. We shall auume tbll to
h present chapter. If the slope were to be the oth~
met _odol.ogy that we shall discuss would still be a 1 bl ith
mod1ficat 1ons. PP tea e w

72 STRAIGHT LINE
By assumana tbe
we would lOu, 10 &I llown ua
One 'Ueh
90 PERT AND CPM

the executive to decide whether it is worthwhile t~ approximate the cu PROJECT COST ANALYSIS 91
by segments and go through an involved calculat1on, or be sat isfied \\~~~
a single co ~t slope. Thxs problem will be dtscussed In greater detail In
Chapter 12. I I
r,-------.....-o----~ Total cost 1
4000
7.3 OPTil\1UM DURATION 3500
I
The costs that ha\e been dtscussed are mainly of the type clas 1fied Under ll. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ._._' I
direct costs such as tho e of labour, maclunery, and oth er re~o urce .,
... 2500 I
1 I
.......,_ _ _J.o,rect cost
I
0
However, a big project generally should also take into acco u nt the Indir s. 0
. . . d ect I I I
costs 01 ade up of general and admtn!stratlve, over11ea , d eprcciatio
h h . d' n,
insura nce costs, etc. It is reasonable to assume t at t e 1n trect cost varies
1500
~I ----+---1 1ndtrect cost I
1
linearly with time as shown in Fig. 7~6. 500 I 1 :
9 12 15 18
Duration--

FIGURE 7-8

..,.,
-- For the nonnal durat1on of 18 days, the sum of direct a nd indirect
.,
.....
0
I costs 1
0
(.) (.)
:!500 (80 X I } = 3940.
Dunn the fir t 3 days of reduction an project time, the direct cost
ancr e at the rate of 66.67 per day, and the Indirect cost decreases by
Cr ash Normal Crash Optimum Normal
Ti me--
0 per Hence, t he net decrease IS $ 13.33 per day. The project cost
Time--
for comp et n tn IS days 1
FIGURE 7-6 FIGURE 7-7 3940 - ... 13.33) = 3940 - 40 = 3900.
Dunng the subsequent 3 days of reduction 1n project ti~e, the direct
The total project cost would be t he su m of the direct and indirect c
cost 1 at the rate of 133.33 per day, and the andarect cost dec-
If the direct and indirect costs vary with the project duration time
reases at the rate as before, 1.e., by $ 80 per day Hence, the net
shown in Fig. 7-7, the total p roject cost wo uld h ave the shape in
1ocrease IS 53.33 per day The project cost for completion 10 12 days IS
in th1s figure. Such a c urve will have a p oin t where the tangent would
horizontal. At th is point, the cost will be m in imum. The time co1rrc therefore
ing to t his point is,ca lled the optimUJn duration llme and the cost the 3900 + 3 X (53.33) = 4060.
mum cost, for the p roject. In the process of decreasing the project The opt.uDun project tune thus IS 1S days and the optunum Pf0 Ject eost
we should st rive to ach ieve the o ptimum duration.
Let us take an exa mple. F o r a partic ular project, the nonnal 4ur IS s!~ are of put HDJ)Ol'WlCC bil pro-
is 18 days a nd the no rm a l cost (direct cost) 2500. The erath duratioc jects mvol1118 vu.blc ciUQJt aacl
12 days a nd the associated direct crash cost S 3100. Let
the cost-versus-time curve for the direct cost conSJstl of twb 1tJ111iJftt 7.
as shown 10 Fig. 7-8. The meaning of these'two alcfPes It
~n order to reduce the duration from 18 day tQ. ~ dot.
~crease the darect cost at the rate of 1 "-67 To
t10n from 15 days to 12 41 we
other words, tl ~
three day
iudarect
92 PERT A D CPM

PROJECT COST ANALYSIS 93


Table 7- 1. the critical path still appea r as 1_2_3-4- 5
tion is J 5 dny . Hence, the project may tak -6, and the crash dura-
e anywhere from IS days

9
3 r----=-----o--- -
6 8

FIGURE 7-9 l 1 l
---~----
I
--- l I
0 s 10 15 20 2S
tions. Table 7-1 lrsts the activities, their normal durations (I n d a ,
theH corre~pond!lno:> norma) co ts (in ~) ~ and eras
FIGURE 7-10
., I1 d uratJ on, andys) and
correspondrng co t ~. \Ve hall assume traight hn~s f~o
\c
theu
h c ... .... r cost-t 1me c to 25 days depending o~ the money the management is prepared to spend.
so t at "or each actn ity the c,ost slope is constlnt TL"' unes If the management dec1des .to complete the proj~ct in 15 days, then,
d' uc e co t lop
a Iso 1n tea ted in this ta bJe. es are accord1ng to the table, the darect cost appears to be $ 9330. In arnving at
this answer, we have speeded up every acttvaty in the project. But, as we
. TABLE 7-I ba\ e already seen, in any project, there are several non-critical activtties
whtch need not be expedated in order to cut down the total project dura-
J.Vorn10/ Crash Cost slope tiOn. Speeding up such non-critical acttvities at an extra cost would be a
Actilit) -
Tinze Cost Tilne mere waste unless they become cntical activities dunng the reductton an
Cost LJT LJC ~c~r
(days) (S) (days) ( ) the project duration ttme.
The management may dectde to reduce the project time for, broadly,
1-2 3 360 2 400. two reasons. One such reason may be to complete the project before a
1 40 40\w: JP
2-3 6 1440 4 1620 2 certaan target date. For example, if the project is concerned with the
180 90
2-4 9 2160 5 production of toys, the management may try to bring these out before
2380 4 220 55 Christmas. In such an snstance, the management would need to know
2-5 7 J120 5 1600 2 480 bow much more 1t costs to get the job done 1n a shorter duration. The
3-4 8 400 4 800 4 second reason could be to reduce the overall cost itself. Thts ts posSible
400
4-5 5 1600 3 1770 tf the andtrect cost per day 1s greater than some of the cost slopes as gtven
~ 170
S-6 3 480 2 an Table 7-1. For example, the five actavatae 1-2, 2-3, 2-4, 34, and 4-S
760 I 280 have cost slopes lower than the tndarect co t lope. In such a sitoataon,
s 7560 s 9330 the management woutl &e ver~ muclltntered to CU\t!D_& dow tile pro-
ject time, tberebf the total I COlt. fn order tO do

T he Jnd arect costs, let us say, work out to 8 16 er systc:mattcaJly. we


~uraton for the proj ect Is found to be. S...da --.-..-?.: ~wl
17
"' The ftrat
frtJm the critical path and not by summ. ya.
the actJVJtaes. It is better to draw when~up -"H
o_f the project instead of the c:an
ttm~ scaled ver11on for tbct
cntacaJ path drawa i a
The overall
4ue
94 PERT A 'D CP f
PROJECT COST ANALYSJS 95
by 2 days at a co t of 1 0. So far~ three acti ities, l-2, 4-5, and 2..
3 fJ\.Bl.-E 7-l
have been contracted by a total of 5 ~a) s at a n o\ eralf cost of 390:
T he new time- caled \er ton for the proJeCt modtfied so far ts shown .lU Cost slope Duration Cos t of
Activity ($) reduced by
contractwn
Fig. 7-11 . (days) ($)

12
40 1 40
9 85
45 2 170
90 2 180
8 2-3
100 3 300
3-4
7 3-4, 2-4 155
-
-
l- - 155-
L-----=----o- - - - -- - ___, 9 845

0 5 10 15 20
ulting in 1440 has been saved. In other words, we have cut down the
FIGURE 7-11 re~al project time from the normal 25 days (with associated 7560 direct
s
to t and 4000 indirect cost) to 16 days (with associated 7560 + 845 =
From Table 7-1, we nottce that the next activity in order of priority 1s ~~ 5 direct cost and 2560 indirect cost). The overall project cost with
40
3-4 with a cost slope of . I 00. Thts actJvity can be cut down by 4 days. ew time schedule is l 0,965 as against the prevJOus overall cost of
But a look at the new time-scafed version (Fig. 7-11) shows that activit) then . f 95
S U,560, resulting in a net savtng o S 5 . .
2-4 has a slack of only 3 days. H ence, we cann ot cut down the duration Tbe problem illustrates the value of a network 1n manage~e~t plan-
for acth ity 3-4 without affecting activity 2-4. In other words, we can cut nd time scheduling As a result, a great deal of flextbthty not
nmg a
do\\ n the duration for activity 3-4 by 3 days at a cost of$ 300 and now, reflected by any other simple method IS revealed to the manage~ent.
by this process, a ne\\ sub-critical path has been established. The new We sb~ll now try to represent graphically the cost of the pr~Ject as a
graph wiH appear ....c:: ~bO\\ n in Fig. 7- 12. f tt"me figures 7-13 and 7-14 show. respectively, the duect cost-
function o .
ve and the total proiect cost-duration curve, for the proJect.
duration cur J

9
8700
s ~ 8500
6 0

...
u
u
8300
...___ _7 _ _ _ - - - - _. J f' 8100
:-7900
I
s I I I u
0 10 15 17 ~ 7700
0
FIGURE 7-12 7500
7400~,5~~,, ,, 21
Acoord1n g to Table 7-1 , activity 3--4 018 IJc fll.rtller Dart
ut th1 cannot be a hteved wrtboat
the co lope mu t Jnclude boda dleOCJit
The combtned cost lope u S
now been reduced to 16 . , . . Ia tbullc
been acb eved far lsapp,asto
Tbe
oc.t. ...
PROJECT COST ANALYSIS 97
PERT A. 0 CPM , h the proJect a a whole, the foJJowtng three f
v. Jt actora are anvolved
" the normal proJect durataon. Th 1s 15 obt db
11600 (e. ) ., f II aane i1J ummmg the
rrna 1 duration tames or. a tbe acttVJttes along the crtttco1 path
11500 00
" the crash proJect duration obtamed b
( b) A, 11 h ' y summmg the crash
..B 11300
- 11400 durauo
n times for a t e al.-tJvattes along tne crittCQ/ h 1
f 1
, ~ e should be care u to o
bs pat n cakulatsng
crve that tbe cntJcal path obtamcd b
t th 1 snto account the normal duratJons for all the act 1 y
!! 11200 taklOStetely different from the cntical path obtamcd by taL IVJ Jets may be
cornP "mg m o account
11100 sh duratJons for all the actJVltJes 1n the pro,ect
-~ 11000 the cr a J

(c) Q(A), the total project cos~. ThJs depends on the tme taken for
1-
h compleuon of the total proJect. If all the act1v1t 1es are completed Jn
10900
tbe r normal durations b(i, J), the total coit for the proiect wlll be Q(._ )
10~0 L-1....
5 --'--!1~7.........~19::-'~21=----~~~ t er .
and Jf all the actlVJtJes are erasbed sndJscnmmately, "we get a different " '
Days total co r for the proJeCt, Q(A.,.). However, 1f some act1v1taes are crashed
FIGURE 7-14 parually or wholly) and the rest are executed tn tbeu normal duratJom
so that the project duration IS A, we get a value for the total proJeCt C05t
po1nt on the graph are joined by smooth curves to bring out the Q(A). Thts 'alue hes between Q(AA) and Q(l)
nature of the project costs as functions of titne. Problem type-A can now be stated as foUows:
Gi ~n a pro)eel consuting of N actimk, eodt of wlakll u
7-3 with a normal dural ion, a cruh dwatUM, ll1td 11 CtJSI ~~9 ~
Project Direct Oler- Total the duration for eh act1rily 1-J JWh tltot tlw _.,._
Days duration project cost head project l and the ccJ"e3pondinr tots/ proj< Q(l .............
saed (days) ($) (S 160 day) con
The UJr durataon for each acttYd.J aa dUll die
0 25 7560 4000 11,650 durauon. 1 ue Important feature to oblctwc ~
3840 11 1em 5 that the project ume l as tbc4 and ue
l 24 7600
11~
optamum actJvaty dntJOU. U. II
4-S 2 22 7770 3520
ilttlir~
IIIII toke into QCCOfllll IM
23 2 20 7950 3200 AJ an example., we cau ~
J..4 3 17 8250 2720 dundJOD ~ far
3-4, 2..4 J 16 8405 2560 lS
5-6 l 15 8685 2400

TYPES
typea of problems aeneraJiy ar1se ut proJect Mff...,.
98 P!: T A D CP 'P OJtct COST A ALVSIS
d 6-9-11-1 2 a re a no lhe r pair of 99
PROBLEM TYPE-B nn'"'mon end-nodes 6 and 12. Let us ncommon termma1 h ath tb
co ow con lder one pan of commone
H ere e t .c the 1ndJrec co al o 1nto accoun . Th1 problem 1
to th ca e dr cu d m F,g. -- 9 and n be tated a foiJo\\ : lDlllar
s ,___
Gt en a pro t:l 'hJI actJ zlles. eadz a octated u.iflz a nor mal dur.a.
'II n. a era l uratton .. and a co t lop , and f urther gi1 ell 011 1 nd1 r~ct 4
7 t P r do of the pro ect duratzon, determ1ne the optinzu1n p~ojec.t
2
d rallon uch that tlze total prOJect cost rs a 1nuumum.
In e t tement f prob ern t~ pe-B, e are a ed to dcterm 1ne th
P m m pr 1e ur tJon h.. and the corre pondmg duration for eac~
\ t ft t the.refore unp ted tl:iat the total cost of the proJect Wi ll be 3
11
b r Jf a 1 the JO re done at theu normal durauon .
TJ e dtfferen e b r een problems of t~pe-A and type-B can be expJaJned FIGURE 7-16
~, fi rnn to F1 7- I 5. In F1 ' 7.15a. the co t of the project contrnu-
terminal paths, say, 4-5-7-8 a nd 4-6-8. Let a(4 - )
I be th h d ) ' a(5, 7), a nd a(7 )
ProJect cost ProJ e ct co st respectiVe y, e eras urat1oos for acttvllaes 4-S 5_7 ~ ' '
ath 4-5-7- \Ve shall call this pat h C2 Ftg 7-17 L , (4. and 7- along
P ' et a , 6) and a(6. 8)
0 ( AI -
c2

oc aJ .-.-+-- - - -
ac>.o> - --
I c,
I I '
I 4 8

A A "o "a 9 11
Proj e c d ur a tion Proj ect duration
(a J (b ) 3
FIG RE 7-15 FIGURE 7-17
ou ly rncrc' wJth decrea e Jn the project durataon. Thrs corresponds to be the crash durat ions, respecti ely, for activities 4-6 and 6-8 along path
pr blcm typ - A In problem type- 13, bccau e we take mda rect cost a bo C1 Similarly, let b(4, 5), h(5, 7), and b(7, 8) be the normal durations for
mto ocou t, th 1'fOJect co t wJH ha\e an opt1mum (mJnamum ) vaJue and the actav1ties along path C2 , and b(4, 6), b(6, 8) the normal durations for
a Jrr pondan , opt1mum proJect duration, Ao ( Ftg .. 7-1 5b). the acttvities along path C 1 We now have the followmg. The crash
i .(, {.,HAP II RJ I) (, JO Ttl F.J>RF.. 1 duration for path

Wt 1l at ly/.Jn' Jar 'C po rblc to tg no r


net wo rk , J1 J vcral branches C2 = a(4. 5) + a(5~ 1) + a(7, 8)- c.E a(i, J) == (A,.)c,.
( ct JVIliC ) ofthc r lWork wh 1c h d o no t contnbute to or e nter 1nto the
an Jy oJ th pro h1 m Su h element or branche can ea Jly be identl- (Cl denotes the activitieS along path c).) Stmllarly, tbe normal durabOD
hc.d h y apr ly r1 ! u rule wh1ch wJIJ be <.fl ~cu sscd 10 thtb 5ect1on. for path
( on td r t h nctw(H k t own m F1g. 7. J 6. From node 4, t s pos Jble C2- b(4. 5) + b(S, 7) + b(7, 8) E b(l,J) (A)
r h nod ~ VJa 1w' p(ath , narnely, 4- -78 and 4 6 8 The.e wJII be Ct
I d rnmun tcrmmal p th nee the two paths have common term Also. the cruh duration for path
or nd node 4 and 8 In a tame aled ver ton of thai network, thf
h wall ppear hown tn a. 7-17 Note that we ha aot Ca - E o(l j) - (A.4)c1
th I ble an each path. JmdarJy, patht 6-1-ICMI '
100 PERT A'-. D CPM

PR OJECT COST AN ALYStS


and the normal dur3tion for p3th 'fAB LE 7-4 (cont.) 101

C = E b(i, }) = (As) c~
Ct
Job number J ob sequence Normal
1n o ur p: (."''-e of reducing the p1 ojcct duration. \H. h:n e to era h sorne or Crash
Time Cost
th .. act i\ .t 1e.., Let u a ume that the Lra h duratton for path C1 IS greater (days) nmt Cost
() (days)
than or equ(}l to the normal durat1vn for path C2, t.e .. 6 2; 6 ()
6 17{)()
(..\A)Cl ~ (AB Ct 7 2; 7 4 21 00
3 800
8 3, 1; 8 2 1200
Therefore. Dummy
9 3, 7; 9 - Dummy -
(.As)c1 ;?; (..\s)c, 4 600
10 4, 5; I 0 3 800
8 2200
since the norn1al duration for path Ct will ah\ a)~ be greater than or 1l 4, 5; I I 6 2800
4 1000
IJ: qual to the crash duration for tht! same path (the ~or~1a l d uration and 2 1400
12 6, 8, 1 I; 12 6
the crash duration \\Ill be equal onl) ''hen no actn Ity In t hat path can 1300 4 1800
be crashed). Consequent]), zn the procc s of reducing t he time duration 13 6, 8, 11 ; 13 5 600 4 800
fcom node 4 to node 8. the actn ities along path C2 d o no t e nter into the 14 10, I 2; J4 3 500 2 700
picture. because even the era h time for pat h Ct ts greater than tor at 15 9, 13; 15 7 -
1900 )
2600
most equal tOJ the normal duratJon for path Ca. "Lnder such conditions.
if path C1 is made a part ot the en tical pa th. th en the elements of the 1 D raw the network for the project.
variou common termi naJ paths like the C2 's can be neglec ted . The result
in many cases \\ill be a much simplified g ra ph \\ hkh JS eq uh alent to 2 What is the normal cost of the project? If all the activities are crashed
the original graph as far as the determi nat ion of the project cost Q(A) indiscriminately, what will be the cost? How many da)s in the project
is concer ned . duratio n \ ilJ be saved if aU the activities are crashed?
'\Ve m ust be carefu l about one p articular p oint. This is in situations 3 If the expected profit per d'ly after the completion of the project is
where t he elements such as those occurring in path C2 are also a part of $ 300, what activities would you crash?
other com m on term inal pat hs. In such cases, these elements can be 4 If the indirect cost {i.e., overhead) is $ 400 per day, how would you
n eglected only when they satisfy the abo1t! condition for all the common analyze th e project and what would be the optimum duration?
terminal paths of which they are a part.

PROBLEMS
T a ble 7-4 s ho ws the j ob numbers and the sequence for the jobs in a project.
The n o rmal time a nd cost , and the crash time and cost are also given.

TABLE 7-4
~

Norntal Crash
Job nu1nber Job sequence
Time Cost Tinre Cost
(days) (~ ) (dOJS) ($)

1 O I 3 400 2 IDG
'
2 O 2 6 J 100 4 1600
'
3 O 3 5 1000 3 1300
'
4 I, 4 5 1500 3
5 2;

s 4 1200 z
tile rono 101
... ~ O. J. 0-2, 2
:it Jt 2-l has
ro '"-ompletJon.
) u aty 2-4 ha been 18
ne ba been commt lOBed, U.
nkl4ed 10 6 more weeks
d rea sessment of act tvaty S-6
"etks.
1 1 order to ancorporate tbeee
,.e problem uslnJ the DCW
uteDt
,........
to ard paa...
as
. h
those acuvtes t at have
-~u, 1ty 0-1 need 6 for
t a l~r the
a a be
ell aty 0-2 needs 8 wccb for
or A uvaty 1-2 needs 3
ActiVIty 2-3 need 11
the ctivity 2-4 needs 9
cuvaty 3-6 needs 1S
AoUvity 4-S needs 7
Activity 5-6 needs 1
be COD idered
onm
104 PERT .A 1 0 CPM
UPOA1JNG I 05
after the beginnrng of the ouginal project . In Ta~l R 1~column one h ssed duration for the completion forth fi .
aH the a ctt\ itie origmall) planned ; the r mninin tlnc.:e lOl umn ~ contans reo ~e with full sati~fact10n on the bar charet ~nf~ntshed actlvihe cannot be
.1nrormatton about the ctlvattc~
. that .. r\; complete, tho~e in pr oces and n show n
the reassesse d d
uratton by dashed hnc an lg 8 3 W
- e can, of course
the number of \H!ek~ they rcqutr l l)f con1plcuon, "1nd. la~tl), the ones shO~tt} 2-3 takes a total duration of ll wee~ as'" mdacated. For exnmpl ~
nell h . s or completaon h '
that a re ) et ro begin "Jth their duration t1n1e . s 010 re t ha n t e ear aer as~ess m e nt Th
1 d ' w 1ch 1 _
,,ec k h d 1 . ' a dtt tonal 2 w b
~ n by the das e anes. Slma larly activity 2 4 h - ee t 1
shO~ b . , ' w ach can be fin 1 h d 3
B E -1 1
s curlier , 1c; a so sutta ly deptcted by a dash d 1 e
,, cc k e ne. So also is a
s' mcnt Tim : .... nd of I 2 \ ecks S 6 n owe"er, th~re 1s one sen ous shortcomtng 10 this t e cuva Y
Tnkc fo r Insta nce, achvtttes 2~4 and 4_5 Acco dyp of represe~ta-
If in proc~s~, -
If yet to begin, neu
tiO I1
n , d F
'
1g. 8- 1, event 4 can occur 21 weeks after the b
r mg to the ongmal
Activttr
number - Jf 'lt etlter
con1pleted how nwnp

tnore c timated time pIn " 10 .
cct whtch .n1ean s t at
pr OJ '
h

. . egmmng of the
acttvity 4-5 can begin 21 Y. eeks aft er t he tn&tta-
n'ceks required for completion tion of the project. In Ftg. 8-3. the bar representtng activtty 4_5 had it
0- 1 - - bcgtnmng ~t _the 2l5t week and thts cotnctded wtth the end of the bar repre-
)enting acttvtty 2-4. Now, after the reas~ess ment , when the bar repre;)enung
0-2 e - .lctl\'ity 2-4 ha::, Itf> end at the 18th week. (&hown by da hed Ime), we should
1-2 es - - hil',e the bcgmntng of the bar for acttvtty 4-5 abo shifted to the 18th \\eek.
2-3 - 8 - Stnce a\.tl\ tt) 4~5 t ..1kes the a me duration as before, i.e., 1 \\eek), the end
2 - 6 of the bar \\all be at the 25th week. Hence, the bar representing actJ\&ty
3-6 - 15 4.5 is ju' t translated to the left. In the same manner, the bar reprc enting
acth 1ty 3-6 wi ll get shtfted to the right. Actl\ ity 5-6, hoYte\er, \\ tll not
-5 - 7 only get h iftcd but will ..llso ha\ e tts length changed from "' week to 7
7 "ecks. Therefore, the dashed ltnes tn the bar chart wall have to mdicate
the extcn ion or curta ilment of the durations for the various activtt1e~. a
rept c cnt the infotma taon ,he n in '1 nblc 8-1 also by u lA'lr
(.;fifl \\ell ns the w ck on the time scale for the beginning of the acuviue that

hull. 1 he acta vat ICS ..t s o a1ginally pl,ln ncd JC sho wn in Pig. 8-J. The are nlfcct d a a result of rea~sessment .
Figure -4 shO\\ S t he bar chart corre pondmg to the network shown m
Act ev ty Fig. 82.
0 - 1 ~'''''''~
-- ---
Bn d on the Information summan zed m Table 8-1 and Fig. -4, we

0-2
A c:tivity
1 -2
0-1
2-
-,
- .J 0- 2
2 4 1- 2 D
.. c: : a J: . . 2- ! I J
[ _] : ]
2 -4 ( J
... -
,, 11 24 10 I S l
Ouratkln n weeks -
FJ

Jl\
\ t 'h
'h r
d I
h
th
't
e C:Ol~p."~~. ~ 0
-- COl~ p eted 3 re o.a~~
cec:o I ~ -e da tio... ~n- p e-

6--

an ete 1n 5 }S nstead of the one'"_...


-

!I
5

20

12 6 .........,......

FIGURE l4t

teane prjcctbasd nte ment at the end r 15 da


_, '-"'~e a ed
alld bow oo at the proJrtss
r hart ror a
based n the
I e
e

3
)
f JO RESOURCE ALLOCATION Ill
1 hown the time- a~ed ver ion of the arne network. For cJarity. th al and can be hired on per day basis. How
crrrrcaJ path i ho n :along the horizontal Jine. 1 he Ja t two rows (als e ca~ul with foremen or such imiJar hands as havee;er,b when we have to
dea . o e employed on a
r ferred to rc our e accumulation table) in sg. 9-2 giV\': the number ~ 0 per m anent or semi-permanent
. . bas1s
, it is then adv' bl ..
sa e to utthze the
J bour rJ nd c rpenter requ1red each day. Note here that the event rces in a fatrly uniform manner.
reso U .
nter d 1n the ttm - caled ver: ron occur at their earlie t tart tnoe s There are basically two approaches in solving such a problem. Althou h
1 he f t-c l t rt tJm can I o be used a an alternative. The resources 1 ~ t he
ar nomenclatures.
are so far not standardtzed ' they may be called g
ur e mpl are 1he carpenter and labourer . 1 he re ource accumulation e
r
'iOurce smoothmg .
and .
resource
. d
levelling. In resource smooth in th t
g, e ota1
t the be 1nn~n of each acttvJty i hown . Another way of representing roj'ect duration JS rnatntaJne to the minimum level. In our exam 1 th
p f 22 d P e, e
rhe rc ourcc required every day hown in J tg 9-3 and 9-4 which ure total dut at1on o .ays IS mamtamed, but the activities having floats are
dr n 1 umm, that n11 .Ictivnie began at the carlil.!st start time . shifted so that a untform demand on the resources is achieved. In other
words, the constraint in the case of resource smoothing operation would
be the project duration time. In resource levelhng, the main constraint
would be on the resources. If the maxtmum demand on any resource is
~ not to exceed a certain limit, t he acttvities will then have to be rescheduled
50
that the total demand on the resource at any time will be within the
~
limit. The project duration time consequently is exceeded.
::J2
0
...a 9.2 RESOURCE SMOOT HING
.91 ~
Let us apply th1s process to the project shown in Fig. 9-1. The timescaled
1 I
t I l I I I vers 1on, a.e., Fig. 9-2, is to be used for thts purpose. The total floats are
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 ho\\ n b) dashed lines. The resource accumulation table shows that the
Day
max 1mum demand on the resources occurs on the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and
11JGURE ( ..J 1Oth da) . The activities on these days will have to be shtfted depending
on thelf float such that the demand comes down. The. first tnal would
J'~ be to haft acth ity 3-8 so that it starts on the I.6th, day mstead of th:_7th,
day. This reduces the demand on \he carpenters from 14 to 10 on the ith
2 L.,
'0 f.
nnd 8th day so that the maximum demand on the carp~nters on any day
. 10 d t 14 The modified resource accumulatiOn table and the
'
.,8 f.
JS no\\ a o no . . F' 9 5
ume-scaled version of the project appear as shown ID tg. - .

6~
0
U l. ~ ~~
\--
6(
......
~------- _...,I
2(, I
2 ..
I II I cl .I I
I I

0 2 I. 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Days

FIG RE 9-4

"' n be not tc d, t h dcul 1 nd o n the r so ur cc


uneven. On the 7th 1
1nd 81h d s~ th e d Jlll nd ~ r ca rpente r goes a tu gh n 14, whereas on
the 1Uh, I th , und I th d ay. Jt oorne do\\n to 2. If the carpenter and
1 bour~ r r to b lured for the enttre prOJeCt durataon of 22 days, then --
durn s rn t f the da they wall be 1dle The problem may be not 10
rou I n ourc that e re deahng 1th happen to bl
IJ
RESO RCE AlLOCATIO
113
1-

i-

0 I I I I I I
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 '14 f I I
16 18 20 22
Day s

(a )
2l
I
I
L ...... - ..... - ...... .... - --.. -o---J

.,..
4( I

I
6 -

.,...
I I I
2 8 2 '
22
~

-
c
...
0..

-- -- ~

-
It n om evident tbat b} judi ousl) utdiun~ th flo t,. e c n
sm then the em nd on the re~ ur . In ur pr bl m 1f th m, n ge
D
0 2 ,
I

6 s
I l

10 12 a
I 'l I I
'
16 1s 20 22
Days
ment hie the l bou . .'rs nd rpenter: for th entire durnti n f tbe
proJ t, it n d w1th 1 b urer and 6 rpent r g 1nst (b )
I ure nd I carpenters ongin Jl} estim ted. in e tnitie . and
FJGU:RE 9-
-10 req uire l bourer- it L the minimum number th mann eement \\
h ' to hire. and, a rdtng t our pr nt plan ho n in -6 n 1 F1g. 1 t.. - exte ded s th t tt ma~ perhaps be c mpleted mh onl}
L the m imu.m demand. The m imum number of rpenters requrred rpente the manpo er r~ re limtted. then the nl) } to
for n j b h (;, e.g., in a th':it} ..::- The pi nning no\\ ho\\ s that th1 romp te th pro to extend Jts duration. In resource le\e mg process,
I o the m imum number re uued (! r lh ntir e project. Thi 1 an 1deal benet r the a~ 1 bllit of a ttSOUICe a.. less than ts max1mum reqw~
nu tion. F gure 9-7 ho\\ the re our e ccumul Uon o rd ing to the ment the cu ten on 1 to delay the ob baVJDI a larJe float. In this way,
pre.., nt hedule. e tend to a rb 1be float and cut down the demand n the resource If
t o or m re jo are ompctmJ for the same tcSO'' IU the r n
15
=
G then used as a second cntenon. The ob nit the
1
toD sbort:.
In t ht o peration, the ava tlabJii t. of resour e as limJted. Ho ;e er, the ho n nee by dOJD! F an earl opportaadJ
r source c nnot go be]o\\ tbe maximum amount needed for an} b a tbc ment of the pro~.

proJect. Unless tb duratio n fo r any actn Jt) 1 JD reased~ tbe m n


l*RO.LEM
amount of any resource requsred for tbe proJect I be equal t 1M
maximum amount of resource needed for any actJ ity an the proJcd 1 A project coilS& of
anstance, an the project just dascusscd and shown an Fag. 9-2, the for each acu ty ud die
resources requared for any actJYity are 4 labourers (u for antbe
Esaabliall tile
mur u4
9-10), and 6 (as for actaYity 2-8). These are tile
called
resoutees tbat the ill ba to ba uukss tile U.
114 PERT A ND OP.M

ass~ming that all the activities begin at the earliest start times. Adj ust th
project work such that a balanced crew operates, i.e., carry through he
proce s of resource moothing. t e

TAB LE 9-2
10
A ctivity Preceded by Duration Manpower
(days) required Management and Network Analysis
A 4 2L, 2C
B A 8 2C
c A 0 4L, 4C tO.t I ~TRODUCI'ION
D c 8 2C
E c Since thei r introduction around 1958, the network planning and critical
4 4C
pat h analysis have provided powerful tools to project managers. They
F E 12 4L, 4C have had a far-reaching impact. The project manager who ts responstble
G E 8 2C to top management for getting the job done on schedule and w1tbin an
}{ A 2 4L allotted budget, bas to work with separate organizations and persons not
J H 8 under his direct control. For example, in a construction project, the
3C
manager dl have to deal with architects, contractors, suppliers, govern-
K F 6 4L, lC ment agenctes, etc., who are not under his direct payrolL In a project
L G, K 4 4C deahng wtth the construction of an atomic power stauon, the manager,
M D, J ,L 4 4C 10 addJtron t o the o rganizations and persons already mentioned, bas to
N B 4 3C deal ifh International agencies and governments. The network-based
anal)' 15 ass1 ts the manager in planning, schedulinJ, and controlling the
0 M ,N 4 4L
or k under such conditions.
L, labourer; C, carpenter. Whether the project is a highly complex one or~ simple as tbe cons-
truction of a res1denttal housing, Jt must be an exphcrt statement of what
i to be achieved-an irriBation canal to be dug, a low-JDcome lf00P
housJng to be provaded, a dairy to be set up for a colony, a da~ to ~
built or an aircraft to be overhauled. AD eflaeot mana!emea cann
u bjectives
afford to be vape JD o IDII objc:dit~nented ptaonn&
Many arpments al'e p~esented aa;aaalylit. arpameats
particularly in the appfJCatiOD of PElt for tbocc pr ; :t1
from the fact that PER.T analys u oc by
whacb are not repetJtave J.D nature aed -.:e. .... _., Per
throughn wttb ...... .... .-.,..
uch proJectS. the
PERT techaaq-
116 ERT A 0 CP
117
time-\\ 1 e ) th
pphcation of PER T anal) 1 great ma n~ e mpte
e 1 lo ub tanu re thi ' tatemeot. Here i '' here the management cornes
in to ee bach rog mmes are PERT-able and \\bach are not.
-
g
~ 200
-
n Chapter -. " e stud1ed in aetail the o t a pect of a proJect along ,, ltb -
u
1t a - 1at d nrne elem nt. One of the mo importan t de\ elopment.s
PE T m n gement ~ 'ten1 . ihe Introduction of co t 10 an exph n
10
~

0-0.. 00
fJ
rei tionshap ' ith the neh\ or , or P ERT CO T. Co t and time ar --
>
close]~ interrel ed in an) net\\or o peration and can not be con idered -
0
:::l
rod pendentl~. r-- eneraH. , for 3G} project, t he n eh\ ork musl be full} E
de\eloped be~ re the OS. .ng pha e n b c ompleted . In PERT cosr. :::l
u
'' e are n rned '~ ith one-time-through programme and not repetathe
m nufa turing situation.:. T he ba 1 obje th es of PERT COST are t ~ 0 Milestones
fold= ) to achie' e a more r ealisuc e timate of the o t o f a programme, f1 e I - ort S

....nd b) to lun e a better co n trol cain l th orig ina l estimate after the FIG RE 10-1
proJe t h begun. Constder, for x m ple a fa irl} large proj ect "hose
ori_in I estimate b fo re a pplying P E RT COST IS ... 2 00,000. In the one. Unfortunately. t his t~ pe of C()St control does not gt\e a true p rt e f
ttme-througb p r oject in hich \\ e are no'' intere ted~ the final act the ituauon. At th e ti me of updatmg e\len t hough t o mil:So ~ re
c~sts rna_ -=-o a- high a - 00.,.000, r esulting i n a co-t fa tor 1ncrease of - completed~ there ere si..~ identifiable tas s im ohed. Ea... h of these ~~
T he tfe t of such a I r ge ost fi tor increa~ e can be of t\\ o t~ pes. Tbe had its o wn i ndi\ idua] time and cost projecttons. Table 10-1 giles
dem nd fo r a d dilion I resour s required rna) top the i nitiation of ne project status as of a~ 31st.
proj e t o r fu ture progran1 mes " hi b h a\ e a priorit} as high as the ori~ l
naf proj l. Alrernath ely, some of the programmes alrea d y in progre~.) T BLE 10-1
m ..' h ' to be t e rmi n ted. In e1ther ca e, ther e is a serious imp a t o Project Status as of 1\1a. 31st
programme pi nn ing nd e ecut1on pro cess.
On the other ha nd, uppose th management or t he group or.kin..:
on he o e ttm te had used PERT COST techniques. In all probabil cy, Task Estimate Actual Orer-nm '/'

- -
ri rn I e timare oul tb n ha e come to ..., 300 000 nd t he fina
t
-
o t to 330 u e of th better control o'f er the project. The ro 1 15 000 I-,ooo 2000 -
_oc9ooo 1 -
{; tor in re e ould lh n be I. J e., onl} J0 p r cent increase O\--er - 10:000
_o.ooot - l
rh o ri in I c trnt t rat er th n 100 per cen t before. 10\1000
- 3
10,000 $000 -
0.3 G GREG
5 6000 :5000 -
6
-
62.000
__......e~
Ta I pkted

the ~ooordtnJ to t 1
s thai lite
the
ted budld ...
a all ed
] f8 r't Jt A U t'l M
119
uu 10 J 1frim or the d Jny 111 th H progrc . ven If the
1
~,,.r
1 LEVEL
1 um
on much o a on rn lly e tJm, ted (thi rna
til J"lf 1h.ab1h1y h n t tru and rhc ctu l o t may be much higher w~
10

Ch l ' r mplled). the tX t 1 would hove con urncd 12 n 1 s {20000)


nan tf an th Jr U u d bud 1. 1 he clu I co 1 may go eve n higher ;~~
0 M U de
0
.
" , ~
')'Q
1 lu 111 I 1nd S rc bctn oclayed, nd f the time chcuute
11
to be n1 tnr "' d, they n1 y huve to be execut ed o n a era h ba is.
WI
I rly th n, the ''re . t c co t tnaJys1s nnd control will have to
nodtfi d ,, b tter alpprcclfltJOO of the OSLa nd con trol i desired I be s (21000 } s f22000)
Oitead 2 Launchmg s (23000)
ol ..,an r' r t n tl)' ~~. the .ndtVJd ua l tn ks ulo ng wi th thei r mon ey Stze phJtform Mtss.l e Guniat Ct &
Hlu ttmc pnn ru more dct>uabJe l or co~t a n~tly 1 'I hJ i what
con set
IS ffl.
v Jvcd 1n I he c~ t llJ rshmcnt fJf l!'nrk J)(U ~ aK~'\ 1n the PER 1 jCOS r system. ......
. .,

s (22100) s (22200) s (223001 s 1229001


3 Propulston Re ~ entry BolllsftC
ln our d1 cu ton f \ or breakdown str ucture or indenture level st rue..
engme vehtcle Systeu
shell eng
turc an h apter I , at wo ment1oncd th . L. 10 ge neral , a system is broken
d wn to ub ysterns and each sub- y tem to sub-s uh-systcms every one of .......
., ..
]uch 1n turn 1 reduced to lllciJOr compon ents, mino r components a d
on. he breakdown. i co nti nued until Jt i:> reduced to eJeme;t nor 4 etc . etc etc
con1poncnt r eprc cnt1ng n1anagea blc un JLS for pla nn ing and contro.1
FIGURE 10-2
J he wo r breakdown tructurc could he either end-item onented or func-
Ltonnlly onc!J fcd, r.c '. o rga n iza t~o nally structure~. One of the basic objec-
t Pic of PLR J I OST 1s to c t ..1bl1sh a c~o s t and tJ mc correlation for tasks
wfu ~ h nre end-item o n cnted. However, functio na lly oriented budget and
C< 1 nl( rn1 aton ~u e al so nvailable ftom the PERT/COST system.
rJ lUre 102 Jllu stralc the work breakdow n structure for a large pro
ramn1c tnkc n ll o nt the DOD-NASA G uide. In a large project, the work
breakdown truct u1c will conta1n units which arc not strictly end-item or
hnr dw ~ll e onentcd. For exan1ple, in Fig. 10-2, usystems eng." is a very
JJllJ)O i tant unit and is not strictly hardware ori ented like the other units. I~
~~ he rgnllJcantfea ture of a work breakdown structure is to provide a frame- I
wqrk for idcutifyi n , a ll n1ajor tasks of a programrne with particular I
L ----~
cmphosJ on produc t onenlcd structun ng of these tasks.
Af t er the netwo rk for a project has bee n fully developed, the activities FIGURE 10-3
urc 'roupcd tOgcthc1 into what are ca JJcd cost u ork packages. F1gure 10-3 t 100 1n
the drawing office. It I
('
tiJu t&lltc t he fo nnat to n of two work packages from a detaJJed network required more than 15 weeks aor e ecu . u of actav1tie that
15
wh ich confo r1n with co t groupi ng~ a s well as activity groupangs. While worthwhile remembering that a work package a gro P
n the account chart.
b
have a common charge account num er I
no prcci c cntcrm can be give n to a PERT analyst for establishing a work
package, one of the guidelines suggested by the DOD-NASA Guide fa
10.5 NETWORKS
that it ho uld be of ..1 ge neral ma gnrtude of three months durauon, ud
.tnoth cr as that Jts cost should not exceed 100,000. It obvious that the dJVi ion of a
11

The BJZe of a work p ..tckage obv1ou~ly depends on the nature and of the proJect which is rcftootcd by tbo
of the pa OJCCt of whch 1t ts a part. I or example, in the developJDIJit and the varaou levels of
Boeang 707 ~lircraft, th e proJect was broken down to about 1'00 the Un1tcd Stato have I
packages none of whJCh demanded more than 1000 man houri and
MANAGEMENT AND NETWORK
120 ANALYSIS 121
PER.T A 0 CP t

quoted '\\here a many as a quarter million events were involved in a



proJect. However, for convenience, when proJects tend to become as
M A
complex as these, attempts are made to break the programme into several
Je~els of management. The upper level management keeps control through
a summarized overall diagram, and the lower level managements control
specific areas of the project through several sub-networks. These levels 0 s
of management are shown in Fig. J0-2.
"etwork analysis has been applied quite successfully to cases with as FIGURE 10-4
few as 40 or 50 jobs; projects with networks comprising a few hundred
activities are more common. The time required for dr,1wing arrow dia- Authorizing the network
grams generaJly varies. Instances that have been quoted cover a very wide
Accumulating the actual time and cost data
ra nge. For example, one firm quotes that a 400-event diagram took 96
man hours to compile, whereas a nother management says that a 400- Updating the plan
event diagram engaged 5 men for 3 week The General Electnc Company Preparing PERT, COST reports
of the United States has aiJowed two hours per I 00 events. Analyzing tht reports
The drawJng of a network is usuaiJy of an iterative nature which anses E\ nluating the project status
not so much from the newness of the problem but due to constraints on
})ec1ding on courses of action
the t1me for completion and the resources available. The availabality of
resources is, in general, a very heavy co nst raint which determane . the Re\'tsang the plan, schedule or budget
nature of the network diagram in its parallel and serial actav1t1es. If the
resources are limited, particularly in regard to men and matenaJ, more l .7 I IPLE PROJECT SCHEDULI . 'G
serial activities tend to appear in the network. If time i a constraint, tiJen 1 r project 1 generally broken into convenient sub-projects and each
more parallel activities appear. In practice, a compromise v. ill have to b ub-pr ect n be analyzed as an andependent project. However, sttua-
achieved and this imposes an iterative nature in drawing the net\\Ork. occur ~})ere the beginning or the end of a sub-proJect may
After a network has been quantified in regard to the duration for the ~;nen~ ;n tbe beginning or the end of one or mOJe. different sub-projects.
actJvities and aJJocation of resources, the project may be simulated by a p d h t . commonly known as nmlttple project schedttlmg.
ThiS I s u to ' a Js 1 t f
mathematica l model. Excepting very simple problems, most of the Simula- There re tv.: o uch types of situations. One is that a p~rtacu ar ype o
tion ;obs wjJJ have to be carried with the aid of computers. ' be required at the same ttme for the execution of two sub-
re urc ma} enurel different projects. This resource could be ~ test
10.6 COST CO TROL project , or t~ o Y be vailable 10 more than one umt. In
cell or a macbtne whtch ma~ not hou~d be so done that there is no ume
In any network planning, one of the essential features is the c~st. The uch n e' ent, the scbeduhng s t be demanded at the same
management would naturally look for a system whereby the co t of a d on resource canno .
cla h. The hmtte comm .... . t ThiS will 1mpose restnc
project is kept under controL A control system provides the means for oect or suv-projec .
ume b} more than one pr J of the events.
achieving an objective, and if at any tj me the projected planning departs uons on the earhest or latest occurrence tl7es diVIded into several sub-
from the desired course, corrective forces or measures are applied. The econd case arises when a proJeC I than one sub-proJect. Such
Figure 10-4 shows a feedback control loop for an automatic error-regu- ts common to more l.nk
proJects and there are even t because they act as lDI
lated system. Here, A is the actual output that is compared wJth a standard as ,urface evtn s h twork
~ommon events are known For example, constder t e ne
element betwren the sub-proJect d tified three sub-proJCC:tl A. 8
5
or desired output, S. The difference D is fed into the controlling system
M, so that suitable corrective forces may be applied. Such a control shown tn Ftg. Jo-5 in whch we ~~.a: interface events are 10 aad:S).;
system mechanism can be applied to project management also. In our and C Between sub proJectS ...C and 4C ao.d bdween A pd c.
case, the actual output .A will correspond to the actual co~t, S to the C h are 10 ao ~.
between B and t ey i1 01
standard cost, and M to the responsible manager. and 27. hen eacb lllb-'"t:
18
The loop ADM is known as the negat1ve feedback control loop. The method to JDcficale tile " ' : ,
PERTjCOST gives a formal statement of tbe cost-control loop u follows: 5entana tbe aoterfaCO A ...
A oving the programme plan, schedule, and budaet fiaure. two
MANAGEMENT Al\lD NETWORK ANALYSIS
123
and 14 of ub-projcct B are the interface c\cnt . SimHarly, events 5 a nd cnt under some n ationalization policy. The suppl h d
15 ..1 re the Interface event for ub-projcct B. These e\ents are sho\\ n JTl
nical parts f rom t h e c
10retgn company to the Y
manuc.sc te u
. 1e of some
c r d h tac unng concern
d:b}l d.
co u Id not be state Wit any defintteness, with the result the supply date
ln the norma l ~ o ur e. the sub-proj ects may be analyzed as independent Or the dredgers t o the harbour project was indefimte Thts ft d
net\\ orl . Rut tJH 1~ not a lways poss1 ble espec1ally when the compJet 1011 f re ecte upon
th e uncerta tnty o the early startmg date of the sub-proe t d
~ c , an conse-
dst for a -ub-p rt..)ject cannot be stated \\llh an; definttene5s because of q uently upon Its date of completion. Such sttuations are )J'kely t .
. h . o occur m
One-ume-throug proJects and also m cases where R and D a t
. c l'.t 1es are
..,erY much a part of the project.
Even when the sub-projects are analyzed as independent network
. d . . s, some
sort of iterattve proce ure Is Involved before the networks are compJ t
. f . eey1
processed . Constder, or tnstance, the two networks A and B in Ftg. 10-6.
r To arrive at the earliest occurrence t1me TB a nd the latest occurrence time
L -- -- -- - TL for a ll the events in the two networks, we may proceed as foBows.
In the first pass, we can calculate the values of T E for events 5, 6, and 7
r - ----- r - - - - --, in network A. For event 15 in t his network, we cann ot get the value of TE
I I .......
W---r I \\ uhout considering network B. In the second pass, the values of TE for
I I
I e\ ents 12., 13, and 14 in network B are ca lculated. In the thtrd pass, net-
I '' ork A IS a ga in constdered and TE for event 15 can be obtained si!lce TE
'I S I I for e\'ent 14 is a vatlable from the calculations done in the second pass.
L------.... I I Further, \\ e ca n determine t he values of TL for events 15, 7, and 6, but not
I( for e\ e nt 5. etwork B is constdered m the fourth pass and the. values of
L _______ J
TL are determined for events 14, 13, and 12. Finally, 1n the fifth pass, TL
FIGURE 10-5 for e' ent 5 IS obtained since in the fourth pass we evaluated TL for event
12. T hese 1terauve steps can be tabulated as in Table 10-2.

T BLE 10-2
5 ,____ _ 15 Jo--.+-- fwnber of pass Net J~ ork

l A 5, 6, 7 -
A
-
') B 12, 13, 14 -
3 A 15 I 5, 7, 6
4 B - 14, 13, 12
- 5
5 A

o ect scheduhng mrght become


8 T he example given illustrates that multapr ~ t lS large Further, if
f rnterface even 5
qu11e complex when the oum r be 0
. g or the
10voJYOd tn tbe scario&n
21----- 4~--+-- the degree of uocertamty b roject analysas
schedu)e of sub-proJects' is bagh, then t c P f __ hftD. but
. onJ Jar.~ mbor o ,..VI __
phcated, requtrtn! not Y o-
FIGURE 10-6 updatJng.

1 t
several uncertainties. As an e.xamp e, we may .c e the case of a bar~
I of drtclt-
oject which depended for one of its sub-proJects on the supp y bac1
~~ from a concern manufactunng heavy machmes. t!::
c;.;em
...'"'ration wrth a foreign company that was control '1