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INFORMACION CENSAL
I. Informacin General
Ao Poblacin
Censal ( habitantes )
1,972 19,488
1,981 23,123
1,993 27,986
2,007 30,123
METODO ARITMETICO
I. Ecuacin General
Curva Perodo ti ki
(aos) (hab/ao)
Pf 1 1,972 1,981 9 404
Pf 2 1,972 1,993 21 405
Pf 3 1,972 2,007 35 304
Pf 4 1,981 1,993 12 405
Pf 5 1,981 2,007 26 269
Pf 6 1,993 2,007 14 153
Tasa Promedio 323 habitantes/ao
Pf = Po + k t
Y = A + B.X B = k
= (Y-A-BX) 2
b = 0 2 ( Y A B.X ) ( - X ) = 0
- XY + A X + BX2 =0
B = ( XY - A X ) / ( X2 )
B= 278.56 A= Po = 30,123
k7 adoptado : 278.56
IV. Seleccin de Tasa de Crecimiento
METODO ARIMETICO
SELECCION DE CURVA REPRESENTATIVA DE CRECIMIENTO HISTORICO
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1,972 1,981 AOS 1,993 2,007
Censo Pf 1 Pf 2 Pf 3 Pf 4 Pf 5 Pf 6 Pf 7
CURVA RECOMENDADA : Pf 5
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO RECOMENDADA : 269.00
METODO GEOMETRICO
I. Ecuacin General
Curva Perodo ti ri
(aos) (%)
Pf 1 1,972 1,981 9 1.92%
Pf 2 1,972 1,993 21 1.74%
Pf 3 1,972 2,007 35 1.25%
Pf 4 1,981 1,993 12 1.60%
Pf 5 1,981 2,007 26 1.02%
Pf 6 1,993 2,007 14 0.53%
Curva Perodo ri
(%)
Pf 7 1,972 1,981 1,993 1.73%
Pf 8 1,972 1,981 2,007 1.20%
Pf 9 1,972 1,993 2,007 1.08%
Pf 10 1,981 1,993 2,007 0.88%
Curva Perodo ri
(%)
Pf 11 1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007 1.09%
B= 0.0048
r= 1.11%
IV. Seleccin de Tasa de Crecimiento
METODO GEOMETRICO
SELECCIN DE CURVA REPRESENTATIVA DE CRECIMIENTO HISTORICO
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1,972
0 1,981 AOS 1,993 2,007
Pf 1 Pf 2 Pf 3 Pf 4 Pf 5 Pf 6 Pf 7 Pf 8
Pf 9 Pf 10 Pf 11 Censo
CURVA RECOMENDADA : Pf 5
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO RECOMENDADA : 1.02%
METODO PARABOLICO
I. Ecuacin General
Curva Perodo A B C
Coeficientes Estimados :
Curva A B C
Pf 5 30,123 89.33 25.35
24,000
19,000
14,000
9,000
Censo Pf 1 Pf 2 Pf 3 Pf 4 Pf 5
Nota: El nombre de la curva deber ser ingresado identicamente como est escrito en las celdas en blanco.
MODULO II.D
I. Ecuacin General
Pf = Pn + m 1 P + m (m+1)/2 2 P , donde :
Pf = Poblacin futura a "m" intervalos de tiempo.
Pn = Poblacin inicial (habitantes)
m = Nmero de intervalos de Pn a Pf; m=0 en ltimo censo.
1P , 2P = Promedio de los incrementos variables de poblacin
n = Nmero de clases
II. Calculo de Poblacin Equidistante
Pi Ao Poblacin
(habitantes) n= 3
Po 1,977 21,507
P1 1,987 25,555 1 P = 4,308
P2 1,997 28,597
P3 2,007 30,123 2 P = -2,521
Nota: Los clculos se encuentra en el area de anexos.
Ao Poblacin AO
Censal ANALISIS
I. Ecuacin General
Pi Ao Poblacin
(habitantes)
Po 1,987 25,555
P1 1,997 28,597
P2 2,007 30,123
Nota: Los clculos se encuentra en el area de anexos.
Ps = 31,364 habitantes
a= -1.48
b= -0.85
ZONA DE ANEXOS
Ao Poblacin AO
Censal ANALISIS
I. Ecuacin General
Curva Perodo ti ri
(aos) (%)
Pf 1 1,972 1,981 9 2.07%
Pf 2 1,972 1,993 21 2.08%
Pf 3 1,972 2,007 35 1.56%
Pf 4 1,981 1,993 12 1.75%
Pf 5 1,981 2,007 26 1.16%
Pf 6 1,993 2,007 14 0.55%
Curva Perodo ri
(%)
Pf 7 1,972 1,981 1,993 1.89%
Pf 8 1,972 1,981 2,007 1.40%
Pf 9 1,972 1,993 2,007 1.46%
Pf 10 1,981 1,993 2,007 1.10%
Curva Perodo ri
(%)
Pf 11 1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007 1.35%
Pf = Po ( 1+ r t )
= (Y-A-BX) 2 B = Po.r
b = 0 2 ( Y A B.X ) ( - X ) = 0
- XY + A X + BX2 =0
B = ( XY - A X ) / ( X2 ) ; r = B / Po
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007
AOS
Censo Pf 1 Pf 2 Pf 3 Pf 4 Pf 5 Pf 6
Pf 7 Pf 8 Pf 9 Pf 10 Pf 11 Pf 12
CURVA RECOMENDADA : Pf 12
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO RECOMENDADA : 0.92%
METODO EXPONENCIAL.
I. Ecuacin General
a=ec
b= 0.013 a= 3.878E-07
c= -14.763
Pf = ae bx
Para el ao x:
x= 2020
Pf = 36,938 Hab.
MODULO III
ESTIMACION DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL POR MODELOS MATEMATICOS
RESUMEN DE MODELOS MATEMATICOS
I. Seleccin de Poblacin Futura Estimada
Item Ao Curva Modelos Matemticos (habitantes) Poblacin
Referencial Aritmetico Geometrico Parabolico Incrementos Logistico Inters Exponencial Seleccionada
(hbtes.) Variables Simple (habitantes)
Censo 2,007 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123
0 2,005 28,644 29,977 29,706 29,701 29,463 29,903 29,683 30,616 30,616
1 2,006 29,374 30,050 29,914 29,915 29,806 30,017 29,903 31,002 31,002
2 2,007 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 30,123 31,392 31,392
3 2,008 30,891 30,196 30,334 30,326 30,415 30,221 30,343 31,787 31,787
4 2,009 31,679 30,269 30,546 30,524 30,682 30,311 30,563 32,188 32,188
5 2,010 32,487 30,342 30,760 30,718 30,924 30,395 30,783 32,593 32,593
6 2,011 33,315 30,415 30,975 30,906 31,140 30,472 31,003 33,004 33,004
7 2,012 34,165 30,488 31,192 31,088 31,332 30,543 31,222 33,419 33,419
8 2,013 35,036 30,561 31,411 31,266 31,498 30,609 31,442 33,840 33,840
9 2,014 35,929 30,634 31,630 31,439 31,639 30,669 31,662 34,266 34,266
10 2,015 36,845 30,707 31,852 31,606 31,754 30,725 31,882 34,698 34,698
11 2,016 37,785 30,780 32,075 31,769 31,845 30,776 32,102 35,135 35,135
12 2,017 38,748 30,853 32,299 31,926 31,910 30,823 32,322 35,577 35,577
13 2,018 39,737 30,926 32,525 32,079 31,950 30,867 32,542 36,025 36,025
14 2,019 40,750 30,999 32,753 32,226 31,965 30,907 32,762 36,479 36,479
15 2,020 41,789 31,072 32,982 32,368 31,955 30,944 32,982 36,938 36,938
16 2,021 42,855 31,145 33,213 32,505 31,919 30,978 33,202 37,403 37,403
17 2,022 43,947 31,218 33,446 32,637 31,858 31,009 33,421 37,874 37,874
18 2,023 45,068 31,291 33,680 32,763 31,773 31,038 33,641 38,351 38,351
19 2,024 46,217 31,364 33,916 32,885 31,661 31,064 33,861 38,834 38,834
20 2,025 47,396 31,437 34,153 33,002 31,525 31,089 34,081 39,323 39,323
21 2,026 48,604 31,510 34,392 33,113 31,363 31,111 34,301 39,819 39,819
22 2,027 49,844 31,583 34,633 33,220 31,177 31,131 34,521 40,320 40,320
23 2,028 51,115 31,656 34,875 33,321 30,965 31,150 34,741 40,828 40,828
24 2,029 52,418 31,729 35,119 33,417 30,727 31,168 34,961 41,342 41,342
25 2,030 53,755 31,802 35,365 33,508 30,465 31,184 35,181 41,863 41,863
26 2,031 55,126 31,875 35,613 33,594 30,178 31,198 35,401 42,390 42,390
27 2,032 56,531 31,948 35,862 33,675 29,865 31,212 35,620 42,924 42,924
28 2,033 57,973 32,021 36,113 33,751 29,527 31,224 35,840 43,464 43,464
29 2,034 59,451 32,094 36,366 33,821 29,163 31,236 36,060 44,012 44,012
30 2,035 60,967 32,167 36,620 33,887 28,775 31,246 36,280 44,566 44,566
MODULO III
ESTIMACION DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL
SELECCION DE MODELO MATEMATICO
Poblacin (Hbtes.)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
2,000 2,005 2,010 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030