This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
7:30 AM - 8:00 AM Registration and Breakfast 8:00 AM - 9:20 AM IDC Analyst Presentations 9:20 AM – 10:00 AM Analyst Panel Discussion 10:00 AM - 10:30 AM Networking with IDC Analysts
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
Beyond Early Adoption: New Perspectives on Consumer Segmentation
Alicia Dowdell Director Computing and Consumer Primary Research
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
Challenge of current consumer segmentations
– Where today’s models leave behind consumers
Segmentation based on attitudes
– Why segmentation still matters – IDC’s latest global research – Drivers of consumer segmentation
New opportunities to reach consumers
– Where and how you can better serve consumers
© 2009 IDC Jan-09 3
CE and Consumer Segmentation Copyright 2009 IDC. All rights reserved. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. .
Traditional consumer segments shifting as new devices are rapidly adopted • Professionals (‘prosumers’) • ‘Early adopters’ Who else besides affluent. younger males? • Families • Retirees Still “late” adopters? • Teens and preteens • Young adults or millenials “Techies” different than “innovators” that came before them? Jan-09 5 © 2009 IDC .
All rights reserved. . thrive. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized.Models based on demographics and adoption leave questions unanswered What happens to ‘early adopters’ and ‘innovators’ as markets mature? Where are the 70% ‘majority’ now – how do they act and why? How do consumer attitudes impact CE adoption – what are we missing? What can consumers’ feelings and attitudes tell us about how markets will diversify. or decline? Copyright 2009 IDC.
IDC designed research to understand consumer attitudes and ownership • Australia • Belgium • Japan • Brazil • Canada • Italy • Mexico • Norway • Poland • Russia • Netherlands • China • Saudi Arabia • Denmark • Singapore • France • South Korea • Germany • Sweden • Switzerland • United Arab Emirates of America • India • Taiwan United Kingdom • United States • Thailand * Structured survey fielded online November– December 2008 (total N = 31.231 consumers aged 18 +) © 2009 IDC Source:/Notes: Jan-09 7 .
responsibility. & feelings Satisfaction (select devices. and satisfaction w/CE drove analysis ConsumerScape 360° research findings Principal component (factor) analysis Methods of analysis Attitudes.Consumer feelings. services) 2 Step Cluster Analysis Segmentation analysis (5 consumer segments) © 2009 IDC Jan-09 8 . responsibility.
Consumer feelings. responsibility. 5 = Very likely/definitely) • TV service provider • Internet service provider • Mobile phone services provider • Brand / manufacturer of MP3 player • Brand / manufacturer of computer (desktop. laptop/notebook) © 2009 IDC Methods of analysis Jan-09 9 . and satisfaction w/CE drove analysis ConsumerScape 360° research findings Principal component (factor) analysis How do you think and feel about CE and technology? How do you feel about making decisions about CE devices and services for your household? What statement best describes how you select a new CE device for your personal/HH use? Who in your HH is primarily responsible for setting up. friend. fixing problems and/or managing the computer (including Internet)? How likely are you to recommend your brand/provider to someone you know (family member. etc)? (Scale of 1 .5. co-worker.
technology 21% Cluster 4: ‘Practical.Cluster analysis revealed 5 segments. Brings Office Tech Home’ – Watches others / in person demonstration before buying new devices 17% © 2009 IDC Jan-09 10 . in charge’ – Gathers/needs information before buying something new 21% Cluster 5: ‘Cautious. experiments’ 24% – Excited about experimenting/using new consumer electronics and technology Cluster 2: ‘Comfortable. networks’ – Looks for advice / example of others and wait to replace than upgrade 17% Cluster 3: ‘Networks for CE Needs’ – Solid understanding of how to meet HH’s needs for CE. comprising ~92% of the total sample Cluster 1: ‘Confident.
“Practical” segment included more women (including young women). Many made recent CE purchases (TV. In contrast.Segments behaved in both expected and surprising ways Confident segments tended to be younger (< 45) with more men than women. Confident/comfortable segments more likely to express optimism about earning potential going into new year. and included HHs with and without children. Majority segments were proportionate by gender and age. More consumers in “early adopter” or innovator type segments maintained CE budget for 2009. No one segment dominated by workers vs. other CE technology (although some TV sizes tended to be larger screens) Jan-09 11 © 2009 IDC . DVD. Pervasive use of mobile devices – more consumers “on the go” regardless of segment. MP3 players. students / retirees / etc. or mobile phones / smartphones) Similar penetration of digital TV.
Understanding which consumers need what types of service – including technical support – can improve loyalty and reduce churn. © 2009 IDC Source: IDC.Level of satisfaction across services and devices varied among segments. 2007 Jan-09 12 . TV Confident Comfortable Networks Practical Cautious 64% 59% 60% 51% 60% Mobile 72% 69% 70% 60% 68% Internet 70% 67% 68% 59% 68% Desktop 58% 66% 66% 67% 71% Laptop / Notebook 66% 76% 76% 76% 82% MP3 73% 64% 68% 54% 66% Top box analysis (% consumers within segment who definitely or were likely to recommend their provider or brand) revealed several gaps.
age.Essential guidance Segmentation analysis revealed differences in how consumers think and feel about technology that cut across gender. © 2009 IDC Jan-09 13 . How they choose consumer electronics for themselves / their household. Who’s responsible for managing CEs and services (and why). 3. Important aspects of consumer experience to address include: 1. and other demographic lines. How confident or comfortable (or not) consumers feel about making decisions regarding CE and services. 4. 2. What role new technology plays in their household – and where they look and turn for experience and information.
Next steps… Examine segment behavior by country in ConsumerScape 360 – Continue to flesh out segment profiles Weight data from 26 country research for use across IDC Consumer programs – HH profiles by CE ownership. etc © 2009 IDC Jan-09 14 . usage of services. online behavior.
Questions? firstname.lastname@example.org © 2009 IDC Jan-09 15 .
. All rights reserved.Appendix: Attitude questions by segment Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized.
Which of the statements best describes how you think and feel about consumer electronics or technology?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Practical Networks Cautious Comfortable Confident
I do not think about technology or CE much I only change devices, technology, or services as a replacement I am personally excited about trying new technology/like to experiment I wait to buy anything for personal use until I have a chance to try it at school/work I rely strongly on the advice and example of friends and family
16% 50% 27%
38% 100% 25% 38% 24% 13% 38% 50%
Sample Size = 28718 © 2009 IDC Jan-09 17
In your household, how do you make decisions about buying consumer electronics like TVs, stereos, or video players?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Practical Networks Cautious Comfortable Confident 45% 28% 53% 58% 66% 55% 72% 47% 42% 34%
I am the one who makes the decisions.
Sample Size = 28718
I share responsibility for both decisions and payment.
© 2009 IDC
How do you feel about making decisions about consumer electronics and services for your household?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Practical Networks Cautious Comfortable Confident
18% 42% 34% 83% 58% 58% 52% 58% 17% 23% 42% 13%
I find it a challenge. I don't always feel confident about OK - I need and expect to get information before I am ready Good â€“ I understand what we need and know where and how to f Very confident - I understand new technology and know what I
Sample Size = 28718
© 2009 IDC
Which of the following statements best describes the way you think about and buy products and services? Confident 25% 74% 1% Comfortable 19% 76% 5% Cautious 15% 78% 6% Networks 15% 81% 4% Practical 0% 10% 80% 9% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% If I really want something I will buy it regardless of price I only buy something after it goes on sale I like to shop around for the best price I do not usually buy things for myself Sample Size = 28718 © 2009 IDC Jan-09 20 .
What statement best describes the way you select a new electronic device for personal use or for your household? 100% 90% 16% 38% 8% 37% 29% 23% 17% 17% Practical Networks Cautious Comfortable Confident % of Respondents 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 43% 48% 54% 52% 33% 39% 46% I need to hold or handle something in person I would buy after watching a demo on TV/video I am comfortable ordering something after reading a description I am OK if I watch another person use it first Sample Size = 28718 © 2009 IDC Jan-09 21 .
or managing the computer / internet? 100% 10% 90% 19% 6% 6% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18% 15% 10% 100% 88% 100% 65% 54% Practical Networks Cautious Comfortable Confident I do Child (13 or older) Something else (who?) Sample Size = 28718 Another adult in my HH Professional or service provider A friend or relative visits to help © 2009 IDC Jan-09 22 .Who in your household is primarily responsible for setting up. fixing problems.
. All rights reserved. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized.The Coming Reality of Internet Video in the Living Room Greg Ireland Research Manager Consumer Markets: Video Copyright 2009 IDC.
000 DMAs and Media Servers 30.000 10.000 40.000 20.000 50.000) 60.So many possibilities… Network-enabled Video Device Shipments (.000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 DVD HDTV Market drivers The Internet video success story of 2008 was Hulu Now we have Netflix coming to devices Cable VOD still doesn’t have the right content This means… the coming of age of the DMA! © 2009 IDC Jan-09 24 .
Whatchootalkin’ ‘bout? These things have failed in the past! Consumers aren’t really interested! Other connected devices make more sense! Traditional service providers will rule the day! C’mon. the economy stinks! © 2009 IDC Jan-09 25 .
DMAs have failed in the past True. but… Two buckets of DMAs in the past – Those that connect to the PC – Those that connect to useless content What’s different now? – Connectivity direct to BB content – Content is from established content destinations – And it’s content people want © 2009 IDC Jan-09 26 .
Consumers aren’t really interested Explaining new consumption paradigms isn’t always easy Early implementations did little to drive interest – Expensive devices – No “real” content. or limited content – No prior consumer relationship with content providers But. consumers are watching more TV shows and movies online – There is interest in viewing this content in the living room – This is content that often isn’t available from cable – New devices can build on existing and growing consumer association with established content providers © 2009 IDC Jan-09 27 .
Other connected devices make sense But… Connected TVs are caught in a replacement cycle dilemma Network-enabled Blu-ray makes tons of sense. but do consumers believe that Blu-ray itself makes sense? Game consoles – perhaps the best positioned. but limited appeal to non-gaming households Meanwhile… DMAs can be lower cost And promoted specifically as content acquisition devices © 2009 IDC Jan-09 28 .
Service providers are well positioned But… Will they get their act together? Slow to move the right content onto VOD Much of what they have is still SD Who believes that the integration of BB video and the STB will take place soon? Or be a viable solution? The battle between content companies and service providers is going to get more tense. and content companies have a lot of leverage © 2009 IDC Jan-09 29 .
Impact of the economic turmoil First the bad news… Cuts in innovation expected in 2009 CE focus on existing product lines Consumer spending under pressure But… Home-based entertainment value proposition Evolution of existing behavior transition Innovative products are still emerging as leaders work to create new consumer experiences © 2009 IDC Jan-09 30 .
Playing in the sandbox © 2009 IDC Jan-09 31 .
but can work to protect themselves from the over the top threat …but… 2009 won’t be a lost year for consumer behavior evolution Coming out of the recession. don’t count out those DMAs © 2009 IDC Jan-09 32 .Things to consider Future outlook Still not a mass market opportunity Traditional cable services aren’t going away any time soon Pay TV providers do have much to lose.
Questions Contact me at: email@example.com © 2009 IDC Jan-09 33 .
. All rights reserved.Customer Support and The Digital Home Are Technology Players Ready to face the Coming Storm? Matt Davis Program Director Multiplay Services Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized.
Todays Discussion The Case for Convergence The Drive for New Services The Coming Storm Customer Support and the Digital Home Essential Guidance © 2009 IDC Jan-09 35 .
The Case for Convergence – Service Provider Perspective Voice Video Local Consumer Voice Cable TV net subscriber growth Revenues have fallen from has been flat at the 100 million HH over 6% over the past year mark – with meaningful competition emerging from IPTV and potential AT&T and Verizon are over the top displacement losing a combined 2 million disrupting existing distribution lines each quarter models – price pressure will increase Broadband Net broadband additions have been approximately 10 million a year in 2006 and 2007 – they will shrink to about 6 million in 2008 © 2009 IDC Wireless Wireless voice revenues flattened towards the end of 2008 – signs that the market has finally matured – wireless data the great hope Jan-09 36 .
00% Television 84.00% Local Voice Standalone 86.00% Bundle Plain old stasis rivals Incumbency as a key for staying put 81.00% Broadband 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: IDC 2008 © 2009 IDC Jan-09 37 . bundling is important.Churn intenders – Does the Bundle Matter? Are you planning to switch in the next 12 months? No No bundle – no problem 83.00% However. it is essential to profitable consumer ARPU and the gateway to new service delivery Wireless 83.
content movement around the home. VOD.. video calling etc. unified communications. HDTV capable video package that includes caller ID on the TV.Where will differentiation come from? Cable VOD Cable modem Digital Cable DVR VoIP Docsis 3. remote DVR control and access. © 2009 IDC Jan-09 38 .0 HDTV Wireless Entertainment DSL Local/LD FTTP/N IPTV In-home content sharing Wireless integration Telco Both will have the ability to offer a 500 channel Multi-room DVR.
Convergence and Complexity Voice Wireless Caller ID on TV Text Messaging on TV Convergence and Complexity Streaming Internet Video PC to TV Integration Broadband Video © 2009 IDC Jan-09 39 .
The March to Connectivity Never Networked Sometimes Networked Digital Cameras MP3 Players Gaming Consoles SmartPhones Always Networked PC’s Laptops Modems & Routers Printers/Peripherals Televisions Set Tops DVRs Landline Phones Growth of IPTV Online Gaming VoIP Media Adapters Faster LANs © 2009 IDC Jan-09 40 .
“The Coming Storm” The number of devices is growing The complexity and connectivity of the devices is increasing Networked devices create more trouble tickets © 2009 IDC Jan-09 41 .
% of devices that required external support Experienced a support issue in the past 12 months? TV Mobile Phone Printer PC Digital Camera DVD Player MP3 Player/iPOD External Storage Laptop Set Top Box Wireless/Wired Routers Gaming Console DVR/Tivo Smart Phone/PDA All the devices required some external support 0% © 2009 IDC 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan-09 42 % of Problems .
5 1 0.Customer Support Forecast Customer support Growth Forecast 3 2.5 0 2007 2012 Customer Support Cost (In Billions) First contact customer support is expected to migrate from phone to online support – however networked problems will demand more Tier 2 support – creating more time and expense What companies will provide the bulk of customer support? © 2009 IDC Jan-09 43 .5 2 1.
Who Gets Contacted? Computing Retail Chain 7% Service Provider 26% Mobile Service Provider 21% Retail Chain 18% Entertainment Retail Chain 15% Tech Manufacturer 67% Service Provider 38% Tech Manufacturer 61% Tech Manufacturer 47% © 2009 IDC Jan-09 44 .
Emerging Opportunities & Challenges Service Providers are beginning to understand the problem and are putting programs in place Remote diagnostic tools are maturing for the PC – the next step is other networked devices There is still a gulf of understanding and collaboration between network operators and consumer electronics vendors CE companies have typically used broadband networks but have not been true participants © 2009 IDC Jan-09 45 .
remote management services will ease the pain of complexity Neither network based service providers nor consumer electronics companies can tackle the challenge in a vacuum – you need each other © 2009 IDC Jan-09 46 . home installation.Essential Guidance New services are key to growth for all players – however increased networking will lengthen customer support contacts and increase expense Consumer electronics companies need to understand that a network-based problem is actually their problem too – consumers are not going to care where the breakdown occurs in the chain – they will purchase CE and associated content if it is easy and will adopt slowly if it is difficult Better service support portals.
com © 2009 IDC Jan-09 47 .Questions Please contact me at: Ph: 508 935 4254 Email: medavis@idc.
.How Is The Global Recession Impacting Semiconductor Demand and Technology Adoption in CE and Mobile Devices? Mario Morales Program Vice President Semiconductors Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
Takeaway Points Semiconductor industry downturn prolonged by slow recovery in consumer and mobile phone segments Multicore microprocessor SOCs enable richer internet experience and convergence of CE and mobile devices Connectivity technologies and combo chips begin to ramp in the 2H09 in smartphones and consumer Portable media storage shifts almost completely to NAND Emerging devices offer volume opportunities for suppliers who can deliver on a complete platform © 2009 IDC Jan-09 49 .
and new stimulus package will bring relief by 2H09 and 2010 Negative impact for start-up companies who have 1 or 2 quarters of cash. infrastructure investments.Macroeconomic Reality Global recession effects credit. and foundry) Companies with solid leadership and experience. Recession also delays necessary consolidation among semiconductor suppliers who are not willing to move forward on M&A using cash Economy won’t bottom until the end of 2009 and won’t recover until mid 2010. Interest rate cuts. tax cuts. NAND. US will lead the worldwide recovery 1H09 will be more severe than 4Q08 due to business seasonality and current utilization levels of suppliers Overall capital spending cutbacks match the same level of pull back as last year which is essential to easing the oversupply (DRAM. funding of IT. and consumer spending Downturn in consumer spending will be the key issue in 2009 – 2/3 of Americans own homes and 1/2 own stock—Declines in both markets bode poorly for spending over the next 2 years – Markets need confidence and leadership to reach bottom and stabilize sooner. and a healthy financial structure will be in the drivers seat when the market recovers © 2009 IDC Jan-09 50 .
Semiconductor Revenue Negatively Impacted by Economy PC 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Percentage Growth Mobile Phone Consumer © 2009 IDC Jan-09 51 .
4B 1. by 2012 the number will reach nearly 2 billion Over 1.9 3B+ Source: IDC Nearly 1.5 billion devices are being used to access the internet today.5B © 2009 IDC Jan-09 52 .1 billion users will be accessing the internet on mobile devices 3G/4G/WiMax subscribers will reach over 1.4 billion by 2012 Internet video will become mainstream by 2011 in TV households Demands Complexity • • • Processi ng Connecti vity Storage • • • Security Manage ment Software Over 1. by 2012 the number of devices will more than double Almost half of the devices will be connected by 2012 Wireless broadband (100Mbps) will enable richer content and broaden the reach of mobile devices and services However.4 billion people are accessing the internet today. content and usage models will ultimately dictate the path of device innovation Enables 2008 Moore’s Law Process Transist ors 45nm 820M 2012 22nm 1.Market Landscape-Overarching Trends 2008 Internet Users Devices ~1.5B+ 2012 ~1.
Does not include PCs.Microprocessors Drive Embedded Device Growth Embedded microprocessors moving from general purpose products to the centerpiece of every major device platform Multimedia demand and adoption growing across all device segments Digital home.000 2. connected devices driving the need for multiple data engines and cores – converging services and devices require support of multiple applications in parallel – Mobile applications demanding more performance at lower power 8. ASICs.000 1.000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Estimates include ASSPs.000 4.000 6.000 3. and Standalone processors.000 5. Volume includes mobile phones.000 Unit Forecast (MU) CAGR 15% 7. © 2009 IDC Jan-09 53 .
BT/GPS/WiFi/FM/NFC emerging © 2009 IDC Multi-Radio Integration FM Bluetooth WLAN GPS Mobile TV Jan-09 54 . but migrating into mainstream and consumer and PC areas FM/BT common. BT/WiFi/FM ramping.Integration of Connectivity Technologies Integration Trends Power Amplifier Image Sensor ISP GPS Radio GPS BB WiFi Radio WiFi BB DTV Tuner DTV Demod FM Receiver FM Transmit NFC Radio NFC BB Bluetooth Radio Bluetooth BB Transceiver NOR SRAM Digital Baseband Processor Baseband Analog Apps/Media Processor NAND MDRAM Integration when attach rates approach ~25% + Targeting upper range multimedia and smart phones.
FM radio. and NFC solutions © 2009 IDC Jan-09 55 . UWB.Combo Connectivity Chip Solutions Not just multiple radios on a single chip but also more software that enable more adaptable devices 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 % Stand alone % Combo chips Combo chips as a percentage of all connectivity solutions are expected to grow from 20% in 2007 to over 60% in 2012 (%) Includes Bluetooth. WiMAX. WiFi. Mobile TV. GPS.
000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2012 Bluetooth.CAGR = 313% © 2009 IDC Millions units Jan-09 56 .CAGR = 108% NFC. FM radio and GPS will have the highest attach rates in mobile phones in 2012.CAGR = 16% GPS.CAGR = 13% WiFi.CAGR = 13% FM.CAGR = 54% WiMAX UWB Mobile TV.Mobile Phone Semiconductor Connectivity Adoption Bluetooth. although all technologies are expected to experience robust growth WW Mobile Phone Chipset Shipments by Technology 1.
PMPs and MIDs will also follow the same path By 2012. almost 45% of total NAND bit demand shipments will come from mobile phones DSC PMP(F) Mobile USB SSD SSD will account for 10% of NAND demand by 2012 Jan-09 57 Source: IDC Semiconductors January 2009 © 2009 IDC .Portable Devices and Media Shifts Almost Entirely to NAND NAND Bit Consumption by Market 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Over 600 million flash memory cards will ship this year Majority of MP3s are NAND based devices.
Enables more development and design. Nokia. and system integration critical Content and usage models will dictate the path of device innovation. LCD size determines functionality. power (> 1W). and market acceptance Apple has the right formula today. TI. Blackberry Storm. Marvell. business model. Samsung. and others launching architectures specifically aimed at these new categories. and many more $200-$250 price point will be the battleground for market acceptance Intel. G1. and Windows 7 will all have a play in these emerging device categories Device attributes: Connectivity not optional. flexible storage required. XP. Qualcomm.Emerging Devices: Netbook and MID More devices per home (secondary device) More devices connecting to the internet Simple and affordable devices that connect to the internet. Linux. Always on and connected Internet in your hand: Apple iTouch. but consumer and mobile markets have room for more platforms and services © 2009 IDC Jan-09 58 .
but will largely grow at the expense of traditional PMPs and PNDs over the next couple of years. multicore SOCs. but will remain limited in terms of semiconductor revenue opportunity MIDs – will be a unique segment. more technology opportunities for suppliers Entire ecosystem must continue to invest in user interfaces that offer an internet experience without compromise Content will need to be further refined to create real. and services continue to evolve Connectivity. Smartphones will take over segment in the long term New usage models. richer content drives. and NAND are the key critical technologies in consumer and mobile Several portable CE categories are maturing or soon will be As competition from smartphones and feature phones challenge the standalone devices Netbooks will grow at a CAGR of nearly 40% in units over the next five years. devices. sustainable business models for the entire value chain for these new devices to prosper © 2009 IDC Jan-09 59 .Closing Thoughts Despite the downturn in the market there are real opportunities for suppliers as the business models.
com © 2009 IDC Jan-09 60 .Questions Please email me at mmorales@idc.
This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
We've moved you to where you read on your other device.
Get the full title to continue reading from where you left off, or restart the preview.