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Arctic region, the enormous area around the North Pole spreading over one-sixth of the earth’s

landmass (approximately the size of Russia, China and India put together!), is increasingly being
effected by external global forces - environmental, commercial and strategic and in turn is
poised to play an increasingly greater role in shaping the course of world affairs.

The Arctic Circle encloses 21 million square kilometers of land and 13 million square kilometers
of mostly ice-bound seas. By way of comparison, India's total land area is 3.3 million sq.km.

By far Climate Change and the resultant rapid melting of the Arctic Ice cap is the most
important phenomenon that is redefining the global perspective on the Arctic.

Current scientific consensus indicates the Arctic may experience nearly ice free summers as
early as 2030’s opening up enormous opportunities as well as challenges not only for the littoral
states but also the international community as a whole.
The melting of the polar ice cap has opened new possibilities for commercial activity. With oil,
gas, and mineral fields becoming accessible and shipping lanes opening up from Europe to Asia,
offshore traffic in the Arctic is already growing. It is crucial that shipping in the Arctic Ocean
complies with the highest safety and environmental standards.

It is estimated that the region may hold over 40 per cent of the current global reserves of oil and
gas. There may also be significant reserves of coal, zinc and silver. As global warming causes the
ice to melt, even for limited periods, the commercial exploitation of these resources is becoming
feasible.

The Arctic region is now becoming a popular tourist destination. In 2010, over 50,000 tourists
sailed the pristine waters of a hitherto forbidden zone.

Arctic shipping has become a reality in the summer months. The Northwest passage, mainly
along Canada's Arctic Coast, will link Far East Asia with North America, while the North-East
Passage, mainly along Russia's Arctic shoreline, would provide an alternate route between Asia
and North America, but also between Europe and Asia.

These Arctic routes will cut global shipping routes by several thousand kilometres. For example,
the Arctic route from Rotterdam (Holland) to San Francisco will be 4,000 km shorter than the
existing route.

If the shipping routes through the Arctic become more dense, the countries that lie astride these
routes, will gain in importance.

The exploitation of the rich resources of the region will add to the wealth and economic
significance of the already affluent U.S., Canada and northern European countries.

Russia may be the most prominent beneficiary of this shift, not only because it occupies the
largest part of the Arctic, but also because it has the most experience in dealing with the harsh
conditions that will continue to prevail in the region.

The relative importance of countries that currently dominate global shipping routes will decline;
the strategic chokepoints of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, the Bosphorous and the Malacca
Straits, would lose much of their economic importance.
The distribution of the world's critical resources would be drastically rearranged, giving greater
leverage to the U.S., Canada, Russia and northern Europe.

The geopolitical centre of gravity may well swing back from the Asia-Pacific to the trans-
Atlantic.

Currently, oil comes to Asia through the Suez Canal and is stored in Singapore, making
Singapore the world’s biggest oil storage hub. When the Northern Sea Route opens up, it will be
a challenge to Singapore because the NSR is a shorter route and piracy issues plague the Suez
Canal. Having sensed this opportunity, South Korea is emerging as the next hub for oil storage
by planning to add tanks for storing almost 60 million barrels of crude and refined products by
2020 — the same as Singapore’s current capacity.

The sharpening tensions arising out of long-standing territorial disputes among the Arctic
countries are to an extent a consequence of the prospects of significant economic and strategic
gains that could be made from exploiting the locational advantages and potential resources of
this vast frozen expanse. It is, therefore, easy to see why the countries that lie on the Arctic
littoral, are keen to monopolise the resources of the region, shutting out any interlopers
including China.

The melting of Arctic ice may affect the chemical composition of the world's oceans, raise sea-
levels, affect ocean currents and thereby weather patterns across the globe, including the
monsoons. For the roughly 4.5 million inhabitants of the region, climate change is a reality and
the thinning ice is making transportation and hunting difficult. The 60,000 Inuits, represented
by the Inuit Circumpolar Council had appealed to countries like India to be more circumspect in
their desire to drill for oil or minerals and demanded that the fate of the indigenous people not
be jeopardised. Already Greenland had given out over 100 mining leases which was a cause of
concern for local people.

It is ironic that while on the one hand the world is grappling with global warming triggered by
climate change, the world's major powers are scrambling to profit from its consequences in the
fragile Arctic zone.

Arctic Council

The Arctic Council, which coordinates policy on the Arctic, was set up in 1996 by the Ottawa
Declaration and has eight members viz. U.S., Canada, Russia, Norway, Denmark, Sweden,
Finland and Iceland.

The Arctic Council has become the most important political arena for discussions of shared
challenges in the Arctic. It is the only body that brings together all the Arctic states as well as
representatives of indigenous peoples. Cooperation in the Arctic Council needs to develop in line
with the changes taking place in the Arctic.

On May 15, 2013, India became an Observer at the Arctic Council. Other countries that joined
India as Observers were China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Italy. The United Kingdom,
France, Germany, Poland, Spain and the Netherlands were already Observers.
In becoming an Observer, India had to agree to the following criteria set by the Council:

(i) recognise the sovereign rights of Arctic states;

(ii) recognise that the Law of the Sea and the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, constitute
the legal basis and the legal framework within which the Arctic will be managed;

(iii) respect indigenous peoples, local cultures and traditions; and

(iv) be able to contribute to the work of the Arctic Council.

In accepting to abide by these criteria, India has recognised the territorial jurisdiction and
sovereign rights of the Arctic littoral states and hence their pre-eminent and even pre-emptive
role over the Arctic zone. The acceptance of the Law of the Sea as the governing instrument for
the Arctic also implies that the extension of jurisdiction over the continental shelf as well as over
maritime passage and the resources of the ocean space will lie with the littoral states. The Arctic
has virtually become the inland water space of the five coastal states — Russia, Norway,
Denmark, Canada and the United States. India has, therefore, no more room to argue that the
region be treated in the same manner as the Antarctica. In the Antarctica Treaty of 1959,
territorial claims have been kept in abeyance in favour of a global commons approach,
respecting the pristine nature of the ice covered continent.

India and the Arctic

India’s engagement with the Arctic dates back to nearly nine decades when it signed the ‘Treaty
between Norway, US, Denmark, France, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Ireland
and the British overseas Dominions and Sweden concerning Spitsbergen’ also called the
‘Svalbard Treaty’ in February 1920 in Paris.

India has been closely following the developments in the Arctic region in the light of the new
opportunities and challenges emerging for the international community due to global warming
induced melting of Arctic’s ice cap. Today India’s interests in the Arctic region are
scientific, environmental, commercial as well as strategic.

India initiated its Arctic Research Program in 2007 with thrust on climate change
in the circumpolar north. The major objectives of the Indian Research in Arctic Region are
as follows:

1. To study the hypothesized tele-connections between the Arctic climate and the
Indian monsoon by analyzing the sediment and ice core records from the Arctic glaciers
and the Arctic Ocean.
2. To characterize sea ice in Arctic using satellite data to estimate the effect of global
warming in the northern polar region.
3. To conduct research on the dynamics and mass budget of Arctic glaciers focusing on the
effect of glaciers on sea-level change.
4. To carry out a comprehensive assessment of the flora and fauna of the Artic vis-
àvis their response to anthropogenic activities. In addition, it is proposed to
undertake a comparative study of the life forms from both the Polar Regions.

India launched its first scientific expedition to the Arctic Ocean in 2007 and
opened a research base named "Himadri” at the International Arctic Research
Base at Ny-Alesund, Svalbard, Norway in July 2008 for carrying out studies in disciplines
like Glaciology, Atmospheric sciences & Biological sciences. India has also entered into
MOU with Norwegian Polar Research Institute of Norway, for cooperation in science, as also
with Kings Bay (A Norwegian Government owned company) at Ny-Alesund for logistic and
infrastructure facilities for undertaking Arctic research and maintaining Indian Research base
‘Himadri’ at Arctic region.

India was elected to the Council of the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) in 2012.

It is in recognition of this contribution to Arctic Studies that India’s application for Observer
Status in 2012 received widespread support from all member countries and India was granted
observer status to the Arctic Council at the Eighth Biennial Ministerial meeting of the Arctic
Council in Kiruna, Norway on May 1, 2013 under the Chairmanship of Sweden.

The impact of rapid changes in the Arctic region goes beyond the littoral states and
any legitimate and credible mechanism to respond to these challenges calls for
active participation of all those actors who have a stake in the governance of global
commons.

Even though India has been planning to increase participation in Arctic matters, there is
currently no clear path ahead. It is proposed that India should leverage trade talks with South
Korea to achieve this goal, especially since we can’t have strategic partnerships with Russia or
China going by our current US-leaning foreign policy.

Our dependence on oil, especially crude oil, should make the Arctic doubly important when
looking at India’s perpetual problem of energy security.

China has succeeded in claiming a big stake in the Arctic by way of investment in research and
mega-projects. In 2014, China signed a $400 billion gas deal with Russia. Also, when the Yamal
LNG pipeline (mainly Russian held) was in trouble because of US issued trade sanctions, the
Export-Import Bank of China and China Development Bank signed two 15-year loans
amounting to more than $12 billion for the Yamal LNG project. It is interesting to note that in
2014 ONGC decided to opt out of acquiring a stake in this project despite showing initial
interest.

Through all the proposed projects, sanctions and bail-outs, one thing is certain — that traffic in
the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will keep increasing which is evidenced by the increasing number
of vessels plying through those waters and the increase in the global production of icebreakers.
Currently, oil comes to Asia through the Suez Canal and is stored in Singapore, making
Singapore the world’s biggest oil storage hub. When the NSR opens up, it will be a challenge to
Singapore because the NSR is a shorter route and piracy issues plague the Suez Canal. Having
sensed this opportunity, South Korea is emerging as the next hub for oil storage by planning to
add tanks for storing almost 60 million barrels of crude and refined products by 2020 — the
same as Singapore’s current capacity. Korea has also come up with a master plan for the Arctic
consisting of three policy goals, four strategies and thirty-one projects connected to the Arctic
region.

In 2010, India and South Korea signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
(CEPA). The Agreement has provisions to liberalise trade between India and South Korea under
the auspices of the WTO. Bilateral relations between the two countries were dormant until PM
Modi signed seven agreements last year in Seoul with President Park Geun-hye. These
agreements, signed under CEPA, look at a wide array of subjects including double-tax
avoidance, renewable energy deployment in India, transport including maritime transport and
sharing of maritime technologies. Talks to review the Indo-Korean Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
are underway, the latest meeting was held a couple of months ago.

Having a stronger trade relation with South Korea is a politically sound judgement. To begin
with, should the FTA come through, potential tariff concessions on Arctic oil (storage or
transport) could help India immensely in the next 10-15 years. India is still heavily dependent
heavily on fossil fuels with oil constituting more than 30 per cent of India’s total imports. ONGC
and other domestic oil producers have been facing falling outputs each year, a trend that will
most likely continue as India’s crude oil needs rise.

A strategic trade partnership with South Korea presents an immense opportunity in filling this
gap. First, going forward India should integrate Arctic resources in CEPA and include provisions
for future crude oil trade. And second, as an observer state, India should send delegations and
get actively involved in Arctic programmes. This year China, Japan and South Korea held talks
on Arctic issues in Seoul. India is also an observer state on the same legal ground as the other
three countries but so far, we have been remarkably missing from talks such as these.
The melting of the Arctic offers new challenges as well as opportunities to
developing countries like India. Discuss India’s interests and initiatives in the
Arctic. What steps can be taken to further India’s interests in the region?

As per various studies, the Arctic region could be ice free in summer by 2030. This
would bring forth new opportunities and challenges for Arctic rim countries and
beyond.

Opportunities for developing countries:

1. Opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) would shorten the distance of Asia
with North America and Europe.For example, the Arctic route from Rotterdam to San
Francisco will be 4,000 km shorter than the existing route.This would reduce the
cost of transportation and would have a ripple effect on global economy.
2. The region may hold over 40 per cent of the current global reserves of oil and
gas. There may also be significant reserves of coal, zinc and silver. Thus, the
presence of alternate and economically viable resources would wean away the
western interference in the oil rich LATAM, Middle-east, and African countries. This
could help in restoring peace and stability in these countries.
3. Developing countries like India, which has been accorded with the permanent
observer status in the Arctic Council, could play a decisive role in shaping the
policies for the future of the ecologically fragile Arctic region.
4. Countries like South Korea are making investments to emerge as an oil storage
hub. Developing countries like India could enter into low-tariff arrangements with
such countries and thus diversify their energy import basket and enhance energy
security.

Challenges:

1. The melting of Arctic ice may affect the chemical composition of the world's
oceans, raise sea-levels, affect ocean currents and thereby weather patterns across
the globe, including the monsoons. This would in turn impact the vulnerable small
Island nations and LDCs.
2. The opening of the NSR would shift the centre of gravity of the geo-political
activity away from APAC to Trans-Atlantic.This won't augur well for what is being
termed as the Asian century.
3. If the shipping routes through the Arctic become more dense the strategic check
points of Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, the Bosphorous and the Malacca Straits,
would lose much of their economic importance and revenue. Thus, in the absence of
west-backed efforts the crucial SLOCs could fall prey to sea piracy.
4. The opening of arctic shipping routes and the exploration of mineral,
hydrocarbons and marine living resources would add to the prosperity of the already
affluent countries like US, Canada, Sweden etc.and would thus deepen the North-
South divide.
5. The melting of arctic ice and the commercial exploitation of the resources would
have detrimental affect on the local inhabitants like Inuits, Chukchis, Lapps etc.
7. Access to arctic hydrocarbon resources could affect the global efforts to mitigate
the losses from carbon emission and restrict the rise in average global temperature
within 2 C from the pre-industrial revolution levels.

India’s interests in the Arctic region are scientific, environmental, commercial as well
as strategic. India could become more proactive in shaping the contours of the arctic
policy and register its presence in global and regional summits regarding the Arctic
issue. India could raise the concerns of the local inhabitants at fora such as UN and
thus play a leading role in advancing human rights of the indigenous people. India
should leverage its experience from the studies in the Arctic, Antarctica and the
Himalyas (third pole) to guide global policy formulation on climate change and its
consequent impacts.

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