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MACROECONOMÍA

DE UNA ECONOMÍA ABIERTA

JUAN LEÓN MENDOZA

Universidad Nacional
Mayor de San Marcos
Fondo Editorial
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
ISBN: 978-9972-2503-7-8
Hecho el Depósito Legal en la
Biblioteca Nacional del Perú N.º: 2015-00867

Primera edición
Lima, enero de 2015

© Fondo Editorial de la UNMSM


© Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
© Juan León Mendoza

Tiraje: 500 ejemplares

La universidad es lo que publica

CENTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN FONDO EDITORIAL


UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL MAYOR DE SAN MARCOS
Calle Germán Amézaga s/n Pabellón de la Biblioteca Central -
4.° piso - Ciudad Universitaria,
Lima-Perú
Correo electrónico: fondo.editorial.unmsm@gmail.com
Página web: http://www.unmsm.edu.pe/fondoeditorial/

Directora / Emma Patricia Victorio Cánovas

—PRODUCCIÓN—
Editor / Juan León Mendoza
Corrección de estilo / Alejandro Montoya G.
Diagramación / Orlando Huerta B.
Diseño de carátula / Mery Quirito

—VENTAS, DISTRIBUCIÓN Y DIFUSIÓN—


619-7000 (anexo 7530)

Impreso en Lima-Perú

Queda prohibida la reproducción parcial o total de este libro


sin permiso de los editores
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Capítulo 1

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1Dentro del pensamiento macroeconómico existe una serie de escuelas o miniescuelas económicas. Sin
embargo, a esa gama de puntos de vista, podemos agruparla gruesamente en dos grandes corrientes
macroeconómicas: la teoría de orientación keynesiana (neokeynesianos, salario de eficiencia, coste de
menú, entre otros) y la teoría de corte neoclásica (monetaristas, expectativas racionales, enfoque
monetario de la balanza de pagos, ciclos reales, etc.). La economía política marxista no corresponde al
campo de la teoría macroeconómica.
Juan León Mendoza 19

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2La economía en general, y la macroeconomía en particular, no es una ciencia experimental. Es decir, la


coherencia o pertinencia del cuerpo de las hipótesis contenidas en un modelo macroeconómico no se
puede validar mediante experimentos. Para ello, los economistas generalmente utilizan la herramienta
econométrica. Adicionalmente, según Popper (1980), la teoría contrastada se acepta de manera
provisional en tanto que no sea sustituida por otra de mayor consistencia empírica.
20 Macroeconomía

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3Véase en Friedman (1967), una disertación detallada sobre el método de la economía positiva y
normativa.
Juan León Mendoza 21

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4En un modelo macroeconómico de varias ecuaciones, una variable puede ser independiente en una
ecuación, pero una endógena en el modelo. Por ello, se debe tener en cuenta que, en los modelos, toda
variable exógena es una variable independiente, pero no todas las variables independientes son
exógenas.
22 Macroeconomía

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5Por simplificación, no se toma en cuenta la depreciación.


6El modelo keynesiano simple se elabora sobre una mayor cantidad de supuestos. Por simplificación y
dados los fines ilustrativos, se ha especificado solo dos supuestos.
Juan León Mendoza 23

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24 Macroeconomía


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7
Dado que la tasa de inflación promedio internacional usualmente es baja, generalmente la política
macroeconómica busca como objetivo alcanzar una tasa de inflación local similar a ella. Si la tasa de
inflación doméstica fuera igual a la internacional, la inflación doméstica en términos relativos sería igual
a cero. Se tendría una estabilidad relativa de precios.
26 Macroeconomía

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8El premio Nobel de Economía Jan Tinbergen (1961) fue el que formuló el principio de que una política
económica óptima debe contener el mismo número de objetivos e instrumentos de política.
28 Macroeconomía

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30 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 41

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11En una economía abierta el ingreso personal disponible puede ser destinado al gasto de consumo, al
ahorro y a la transferencia hacia el exterior (resto del mundo).
42 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 43

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12En un sentido amplio y estricto, la estimación del saldo fiscal incorpora además los ingresos de capital,
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44 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 45

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13 La población económicamente no activa se divide entre los disponibles para trabajar y los no
disponibles para trabajar. Los primeros son aquellos que no han buscado trabajo en el período de
referencia inmediato, pero aceptarían cuando se les ofreciera; los segundos son aquellos que no han
buscado trabajo en el período de referencia inmediato y no aceptarían uno, aunque se les ofreciera.
14 Menores de edad respecto a la edad de trabajar.
46 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 47

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48 Macroeconomía

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15Cuanto más pobre sea un país, se hace mucho más difícil para un Gobierno sujetar el gasto a su nivel
de ingreso (mantener el equilibrio fiscal); ello porque en el marco en que los ingresos son bajos (por la
poca recaudación tributaria de contribuyentes con bajos ingresos) existen muchas presiones sociales y
políticas para que el Gobierno aumente su gasto: los empleados públicos desean percibir un mayor
salario, los consumidores y los empresas presionan por una política de subsidios o incentivos, las
familias mayoritariamente pobres desean servicios sociales gratuitos (educación, salud, nutrición), se
demandan inversiones en infraestructura física, etc.
Juan León Mendoza 49

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50 Macroeconomía


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52 Macroeconomía

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16El ahorro corriente del Gobierno central de 30,176 millones de soles, resulta de restar de los 109,517
millones de nuevos soles de ingresos corrientes los 79,341 de gastos corrientes. Los gastos corrientes
incluyen los gastos en remuneraciones, bienes y servicios y las transferencias.
Capítulo 3

La balanza de pagos e
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17 Actualmente, el dólar norteamericano predomina como el medio de pago y unidad de cuenta


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18 Véase Fondo Monetario Internacional (2009).
Juan León Mendoza 55

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19Sibien los flujos de rentas están relacionados a las transacciones de servicios factoriales, el valor de la
renta neta del exterior no necesariamente es igual al saldo neto de pagos a factores externos. El primero
56 Macroeconomía

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es parte del registro de la balanza de pagos, en tanto que el segundo es componente de la contabilidad
de la actividad económica (producto nacional bruto).
Juan León Mendoza 57

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20La moneda extranjera dura está relacionada al país dominante en la economía mundial. Actualmente,
Estados Unidos de América es la primera potencia económica mundial y el dólar norteamericano tiene
una relativa mayor presencia en la reservas de los bancos centrales de muchos países. Si, en el futuro,
algún país pasara a ser nuevo líder económico, por ejemplo China, entonces la moneda de ese país
dominante desplazará al dólar en la composición de las reservas de activos internacionales.
58 Macroeconomía

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21 Por simplificación, obviamos la cuenta de capital.
Juan León Mendoza 59

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60 Macroeconomía

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MES 1 MES 2
Crédito Débito Crédito Débito SALDO
I. Cuenta corriente 13
1. Bienes 4
a. Exportaciones FOB 11 8 19
b. Importaciones FOB -9 -6 -15
2. Servicios -1
a. Exportaciones 1 3 4
b. Importaciones -5 -5
3. Renta 9
a. Remuneración de empleados 4 4
b. Renta de inversión directa 12 12
c. Renta de inversión de cartera -7 -7
4. Transferencias netas 9 -8 1
II. Cuenta financiera -13
a. Inversión directa -12 -12
b. Inversión en cartera 7 -4 3
c. Otra inversión 5 -11 6 -3 -3
d. Activos de reserva -1 -1
III. Balanza de pagos 48 -48 17 -17 0

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Juan León Mendoza 61

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62 Macroeconomía

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‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ሺܺ െ ܼሻ േ ܲܰ‫͵ʹܨ‬

22 Inclusive un saldo superavitario de la balanza de pagos podría aparentar una buena situación externa
cuando en realidad existen grandes problemas o desequilibrios externos. Ese puede ser el caso cuando
un gran déficit en la cuenta corriente esté acompañado de un superávit de monto mayor en la cuenta
financiera.
23El pago neto a factores externos puede tener un signo positivo o negativo. Si el pago que reciben -en el

exterior- los factores productivos pertenecientes a residentes es mayor que el pago percibido por los
factores de no residentes en el país doméstico, el pago neto será de signo positivo, en caso contrario
será de signo negativo.
Juan León Mendoza 63

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24La balanza comercial es la suma del saldo de las exportaciones menos las importaciones de bienes y de
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exportaciones netas de bienes y servicios.
25Se está asumiendo que ‫ݎ‬es la tasa de interés doméstica, que se considera igual a la tasa de interés

internacional.
64 Macroeconomía

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68 Macroeconomía

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26En un determinado período, el saldo en la cuenta corriente de un país deudor neto es igual a la suma
‫כ‬
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en cuenta que la balanza comercial es equivalente a la diferencia entre el producto bruto interno y el
gasto de absorción doméstica (‫ ܥܤ‬ൌ ܻ െ ‫ܣ‬ሻ, se obtiene la misma ecuación formulada ‫ ܣ‬െ ܻ ൌ ‫ כܦ‬െ
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Juan León Mendoza 69

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27El proceso descrito se conoce como el “esquema Ponzi” o “juego Ponzi”, en mención a Carlo Ponzi,
quien en la década del 20 del siglo XX protagonizó estafas de alta repercusión mediática en Estados
Unidos de Norteamérica. Ponzi, un inmigrante italiano de bajos recursos económicos, acumuló una gran
fortuna y derrochó opulencia económica implementando un sistema piramidal de estafas: recepción de
un creciente flujo de inversiones financieras prometiendo pagar altos intereses, financiándolo –en tanto
se podía- con nuevas captaciones o los mismos fondos captados. El proceso era insostenible. Cuando
este llegó a su final, todos aquellos que participaron en el sistema implementado por Ponzi perdieron
toda la inversión efectuada.
En el Perú, en la primera mitad de la década del 90 del siglo XX, se produjo una estafa muy similar al
estilo del “esquema Ponzi”, protagonizada por una institución financiera informal denominada CLAE y
encabezada por Carlos Manrique. En esa oportunidad, también todos aquellos que habían depositado
sus fondos en CLAE perdieron todo.
70 Macroeconomía

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28 Véase capítulo 1 de Obstfeld y Rogoff (1996).


Juan León Mendoza 71

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72 Macroeconomía

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74 Macroeconomía

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29Si al valor de la cuenta financiera, adicionado el monto de financiamiento excepcional y de errores y


omisiones netos (13,076 millones de dólares), le restamos los 2,907 millones del flujo de reservas netas
del BCRP, el saldo positivo de la cuenta financiera llega a ser 10,169 millones, lo cual confrontado con el
déficit en la balanza en cuenta corriente de -10,169 millones arroja un saldo de balanza de pagos igual a
cero.
Juan León Mendoza 77

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78 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 79

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80 Macroeconomía

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1991
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30 El valor negativo en el coeficiente de cobertura se explica porque las reservas internacionales netas
fueron negativas. Efectivamente, en los años de 1976, 1977, 1978 y 1988 las RIN fueron negativas,
siendo el de mayor magnitud el del año 1977 (-484 millones de dólares).
Juan León Mendoza 81

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31 Por simplificación, denominaremos a la moneda peruana como el sol.


84 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 85

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86 Macroeconomía


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32 ଵ
Al inicio, el tipo de cambio de 2 soles por un dólar era lo mismo que 0.5 dólares por un sol ቀଶ ൌ ͲǤͷቁ;
posteriormente, cuando el tipo de cambio pasa a 3 soles por un dólar, se tiene que 0.33 dólares

ቀଷ ൌ ͲǤ͵͵ቁ equivale a un sol.
Juan León Mendoza 87

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88 Macroeconomía

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33 Véase capítulo 6 de Gámez y Mochón (1995)


Juan León Mendoza 89

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34Por simplificación se está asumiendo que la tasa de depreciación de la moneda nacional es igual a la
tasa de apreciación de la moneda extranjera.
90 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 91

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92 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 101

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102 Macroeconomía


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1991
1992
1993
1994
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2005
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106 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 107

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Juan León Mendoza 109

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36Según la ley de un solo precio, dado un tipo de cambio de tres soles por un dólar, si un producto en
Estados Unidos de Norteamérica tuviera un precio de dos dólares, entonces, en el Perú, un producto
doméstico similar debe tener el precio de seis soles (S/.6 = S/.3 x $2).
110 Macroeconomía

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37Si bien en el corto plazo la PPC tiende a no cumplirse, este enfoque se torna muy consistente en la
explicación de la determinación del tipo de cambio en el largo plazo (Taylor y Taylor, 2004).
112 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 113

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114 Macroeconomía

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38 Véase capítulo 8 de De Gregorio (2007).


Juan León Mendoza 115

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39 El efecto positivo del incremento en el tipo de cambio real sobre las exportaciones netas de bienes y
servicios asume que se cumple la condición de Marshall-Lerner. Se dice que se cumple la citada
condición cuando las suma de las elasticidades precio demanda de exportación e importación son
mayores que uno. Véase en el capítulo 8, un desarrollo más detallado de la lógica del cumplimiento de
la condición de Marshall-Lerner.
116 Macroeconomía

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40 Véase en el apéndice la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


Juan León Mendoza 117

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118 Macroeconomía

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41 Véase en el apéndice la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


Juan León Mendoza 119

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42 Véase en el apéndice la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


120 Macroeconomía


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Juan León Mendoza 121

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122 Macroeconomía

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de los depósitos a la vista se verían obligados a pagar una comisión por poseer una cuenta corriente
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Juan León Mendoza 131

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45 En términos generales, la ley de Walras indica que, si hay n mercados y si n-1 mercados están en
equilibrio, entonces el enésimo mercado también debe estar en equilibrio. La utilidad de la ley de
Walras radica en el hecho de que con ella se puede prescindir, del análisis directo, un mercado y sus
variables involucradas, de manera que el proceso de análisis se puede efectuar de modo más manejable
o sencillo con una menor cantidad de variables.
Juan León Mendoza 133


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46Se está asumiendo una tasa de inflación esperada igual a cero, de manera que la tasa de interés real
‫ݎ‬es igual a la tasa de interés nominal ݅.
134 Macroeconomía

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47A diferencia del bono, las acciones son instrumentos financieros de renta variable, debido a que el
rendimiento de dicha inversión financiera va a depender de lo que suceda con la rentabilidad de la
empresa de la cual el inversionista es accionista.
Juan León Mendoza 135

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138 Macroeconomía

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48 Si representamos el tipo de cambio nominal por ‫ ܧ‬y los activos externos netos en dólares por ܴ‫ כ ܰܫ‬,

entonces la RIN, en términos de moneda nacional, es igual a ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ‫ܧ‬Ǥ ܴ‫כ ܰܫ‬
Juan León Mendoza 139

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140 Macroeconomía

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49 Véase capítulo 9 de Sachs y Larraín (1994).


50 La tasa de interés que pagan los bancos por los depósitos captados se denomina tasa de interés
pasiva, en tanto que lo que cobran por el crédito otorgado se conoce como la tasa de interés activa.
Normalmente la tasa activa es mayor que la pasiva. La diferencia financia los costos operativos y la
ganancia bruta de las instituciones financieras. En la preferencia por circulante del público, la tasa de
interés relevante es la tasa de interés pasiva.
51 Aquí el aumento en la tasa de interés de mercado se refiere implícitamente al incremento en la tasa

de interés activa.
52 Se está asumiendo que la tasa de interés pasiva de mercado es igual a la activa.
53 El encaje legal está compuesto del encaje mínimo legal y de encajes obligatorios adicionales. El encaje

mínimo legal es la tasa de encaje aplicado a los depósitos captados por los bancos. El encaje obligatorio
Juan León Mendoza 141

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adicional al mínimo legal se efectúa, por ejemplo, cuando se provisiona reservas en los bancos por
créditos en problemas de cobranza.
54 Como veremos posteriormente en el capítulo del mercado cambiario, en un régimen de tipo de

cambio fijo, la compra y venta de moneda extranjera por parte del Banco Central es endógeno a los
desequilibrios del sector externo, por lo que en este caso deja de ser un instrumento de política
monetaria.
142 Macroeconomía

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55 Un instrumento de política monetaria muy utilizado por el Banco Central en el Perú es la tasa de
interés de referencia, que trata de tener influencia en la tasa de interés de mercado (‫ )ݎ‬mediante su
efecto en la tasa de interés interbancaria (݅௕ ).
56 Si no se dejara a un lado la tasa de interés de mercado, la curva de oferta de dinero sería de pendiente

positiva.
Juan León Mendoza 143

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144 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 145


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57 Véase Mishkin (2012). La discusión del dilema entre el uso de la tasa de interés o algún agregado
monetario en la instrumentalización de la política monetaria fue planteada de manera precursora por
Poole (1970).
58 Se está asumiendo constante el nivel de precios ܲ.
59 La política de regulación monetaria por parte del Banco Central no es una tarea muy sencilla. Por

ejemplo, si la autoridad monetaria optara por metas de masa monetaria, la consecución de ese objetivo
está sujeta no solo al accionar del Banco Central, sino también de los bancos y el público. Los cambios
en la preferencia por circulante de parte del público y la política de reservas voluntarias de los bancos,
en tanto que influyen en el valor del multiplicador monetario y no están bajo control del Banco Central,
también influirán en la determinación de la masa monetaria.
146 Macroeconomía

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60 Véase la versión originaria en Taylor (1970).


Juan León Mendoza 147


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61 Si no se desacelera la mayor tasa de crecimiento de la producción respecto al crecimiento de la


producción tendencial, se desatan presiones inflacionarias, de modo que se abre la posibilidad de que la
tasa de inflación se eleve.
62 Dado que la tasa de interés nominal objetivo es igual a la tasa de interés real objetivo más la tasa de

inflación (݅ ௢ ൌ ‫ ݎ‬௢ ൅ ߨ), la ecuación de la regla de Taylor también se puede expresar como: ݅ ൌ ‫ ݎ‬௢ ൅ ߨ ൅
߷ሺߨ െ ߨ ௢ ሻ ൅ ߜሺ‫ ݕ‬െ ‫ݕ‬തሻǤ En este caso, el valor del parámetro ߷ va a ser positivo, pero no
necesariamente mayor que uno. En este caso también cuando la tasa de inflación se coloca por encima
de su nivel meta, la tasa de interés nominal se debe elevar en (1+߷) por ciento, es decir, en un
148 Macroeconomía


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porcentaje mayor que el aumento en la tasa de inflación, de modo que se incremente la tasa de interés
real.
63Incluyen los depósitos de ahorro, los depósitos a plazo, las cédulas hipotecarias de ahorro, los bonos

de fomento, los bonos de arrendamiento financiero, los bonos subordinados, los valores emitidos por el
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP).
Juan León Mendoza 149

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64Incluyen las operaciones de compra temporal de moneda extranjera (swaps) y de los certificados de
depósitos liquidables en dólares del BCRP.
65El Banco Central de Reserva del Perú utiliza la siguiente fórmula para estimar el multiplicador bancario:

߮ ൌ ሺ௖௜ା௖௘ሺଵି௖௜ሻ ; donde ܿ݅ es la preferencia del público por el circulante, definido como un coeficiente
஼ூ
del circulante y la liquidez en moneda nacional del sistema bancario ቀ ெ ቁ Ǣ ܿ݁ representa la tasa de
encaje efectiva, que se define como los depósitos en moneda nacional que los bancos poseen en el
150 Macroeconomía

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PREFERENCIA POR CIRCULANTE TASA DE ENCAJE IMPLICITA



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Banco Central más los fondos que mantienen estos en sus bóvedas dividido entre los depósitos a la vista
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Capítulo 7

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66 En términos de los componentes de la balanza de pagos, se asume que el mercado de divisas está
relacionado básicamente a las transacciones que se registran en la cuenta financiera más que en la
cuenta corriente; entonces, el supuesto implica que no se toma en cuenta la demanda de divisas por
motivo liquidez.
152 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 153


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154 Macroeconomía


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67 Si la tasa de depreciación esperada de la moneda local ‫ כ ܧ‬se define como:


‫ܧ‬௘ െ ‫ܧ ܧ‬௘
‫ כܧ‬ൌ ൌ െͳ
‫ܧ‬ ‫ܧ‬
Despejando, se tiene:
‫ܧ‬௘
ൌ ͳ ൅ ‫כܧ‬
‫ܧ‬
68 El resultado de la multiplicación de dos números menores que uno tiende a cero.
Juan León Mendoza 155

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156 Macroeconomía

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69 Esta relación, en sentido directo, entre el riesgo país y la tasa de interés doméstica tiene mucha
relevancia para las decisiones de inversión productiva. En un país muy riesgoso, en la medida en que se
eleve su tasa de interés, tenderá a reducirse sus niveles de inversión productiva.
70 Véase capítulo 4 de Feenstra y Taylor (2012).
Juan León Mendoza 157

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71La pendiente de la curva డோா ா೐


de rendimiento del activo externo es de signo negativo e igual a: ൌെ మ൏Ͳ
డா ா
72 En un sentido estricto, cambios en el tipo de cambio esperado hacen rotar la curva de rendimiento del

activo externo, debido a que está en la pendiente de ella. Véase pie de página precedente.
158 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 159

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73En el enfoque de la balanza de pagos desarrollado en el capítulo 4, la oferta y demanda de moneda


extranjera dependía, además de las variables de la cuenta financiera, de variables relacionadas a la
balanza en cuenta corriente. En el presente capítulo no se toma en cuenta el canal de la cuenta
corriente por el supuesto de perfecta movilidad de capital. En este caso, la evolución del mercado
cambiario doméstico va a depender básicamente de la importación y exportación de capital financiero.
La ecuación de la importación de capital es igual a ܼ஼ி ൌ ܼ஼ி ሾ‫ ݎ‬െ ሺ‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ‫ כ ܧ‬൅ Ѳሻሿ, en tanto que la
ecuación de exportación de capital se define como ܺ஼ி ൌ ܺ஼ி ሾ‫ ݎ‬െ ሺ‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ‫ כ ܧ‬൅ Ѳሻሿ.
160 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 161

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162 Macroeconomía

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74 Véase en el apéndice la versión algebraica del efecto de un incremento de la masa monetaria sobre el
tipo de cambio nominal.
75 Véase en el apéndice la versión algebraica del efecto de una disminución en el riesgo país sobre el tipo

de cambio nominal.
Juan León Mendoza 163

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164 Macroeconomía

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76 La situación de equilibrio en el mercado de divisas correspondiente a la igualdad de la tasa de interés


local con la suma de la tasa de interés internacional y la prima por riesgo país asume que los activos
financieros domésticos y externos son sustitutos imperfectos. Si ambos activos fueran sustitutos
perfectos, la prima por riesgo país sería igual a cero, de modo que el mercado de divisas estaría en
equilibrio cuando la tasa de interés local sea igual a la internacional (‫ ݎ‬ൌ ‫) כ ݎ‬.
Juan León Mendoza 165

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Juan León Mendoza 167

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Juan León Mendoza 169

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170 Macroeconomía


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Juan León Mendoza 171

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Capítulo 8

Un modelo básico de
determinación de la producción
en una economía abierta

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77 Se asume que la producción es igual al ingreso o renta nacional.


Juan León Mendoza 175

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78 Por simplificación, se asume que las importaciones de bienes y servicios dependen del ingreso
nacional ܻ y no del ingreso nacional disponible ܻௗ Ǥ
79 Alexander (1952) fue el primero en especificar que el exceso del ingreso sobre el gasto en absorción

es igual al saldo de la balanza en cuenta corriente.


176 Macroeconomía

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80
Véase la derivación en Williamson (1983).
81Dadoque los valores de la propensión marginal a consumir y la tasa de impuestos son positivos y
menores que uno, la pendiente de la curva ‫ܫܧ‬es positiva pero menor que uno.
Juan León Mendoza 177

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178 Macroeconomía

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82 La pendiente de la curva de demanda es positiva e igual a: ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ݉


83 La pendiente de la curva de importaciones es positiva e igual a la propensión marginal a importar (݉).
Juan León Mendoza 179

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84 Véase, en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


180 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 181

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85Véaseen el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


86Véase en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente. En el supuesto de que los precios
domésticos e internacionales están dados, un incremento en el tipo de cambio nominal equivale a un
aumento en el tipo de cambio real.
Juan León Mendoza 183

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184 Macroeconomía

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87 El tamaño del área final ‫ܧ‬ଵ Ǥ ‫ܤ‬ଶ Ǥ ܼଶ Ǥ ܱ es menor que el área inicial ‫ܧ‬௢ Ǥ ‫ܣ‬Ǥ ܼ௢ Ǥ ܱ.
88 El área ‫ܧ‬ଵ Ǥ ‫ܤ‬ଵ Ǥ ܼଵ Ǥ ܱ es mayor que el área ‫ܧ‬௢ Ǥ ‫ܣ‬Ǥ ܼ௢ Ǥ ܱǤ
Juan León Mendoza 185

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89 El área ሺͳȀ‫ܧ‬ሻଵ Ǥ ‫ܤ‬ଶ Ǥ ܺଶ Ǥ ܱ es mayor que el ሺͳȀ‫ܧ‬ሻ௢ Ǥ ‫ܣ‬Ǥ ܺ௢ Ǥ ܱǤ


186 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 187

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90 Véase, en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


188 Macroeconomía

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91Krugman (1989) muestra que, dada la devaluación, en el corto plazo, no se cumple la condición de
Marshall-Lerner porque el efecto volumen es menor que el efecto precio. En tanto que en el largo plazo,
Juan León Mendoza 189

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el efecto volumen es mucho más importante que el efecto precio, tal que se genera superávits en la
balanza en cuenta corriente.
190 Macroeconomía

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ܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ൬ ൰ ߲ܻ ‫ כ  כ‬൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲ܻ



92 Véase, en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


Juan León Mendoza 191


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‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻሺͺǤʹሻ

Ͳ ൏ ܿ ൏ ͳͲ ൏ ‫ ݐ‬൏ ͳ

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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ߲‫ܩ‬
ͳ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ൬ ൰ ߲‫ܩ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ܩ‬

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߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ  െ߲ܻ݉

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݉ ߲‫ܥܥܤ‬
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ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ݐ‬

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߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ  െ߲ܻ݉

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ܻ݉ܿ ߲‫ܥܥܤ‬
߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ  ൬ ൰ ߲‫ݐ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ݐ‬
192 Macroeconomía

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߲ܻ െ ߲ܻܿ ൅ ܿ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬ൌ  ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ߲ܻ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ܺ௘ ܼ݁௘
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ܼ ൬ െ െ ͳ൰ ߲݁
ܼ ܼ


$VXPLHQGRܺ ൌ ܼ݁\ܼ ൌ 

ܺ௘ ܼ݁௘
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ܼ

డ௑ డ௓
ଡ଼ ௓
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െ ͳቍ ߲݁
௘ ௘
6L߲ܺ ൌ ߂߲ܼܺ ൌ ߂ܼ߲݁ ൌ ߂݁
Ψ Ψܼ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ܼ ൬ െ െ ͳ൰ ߲݁
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'DGRܲ ൌ ܲ‫ כ‬ൌ ͳ߲݁ ൌ ߲‫ܧ‬

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ܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ
ܻ݀ ൌ ቆ ቇ ߲‫ܧ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉

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߲‫ܧ‬ ߲‫ܧ‬

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߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ሺܺ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁ െ ߲ܻ݉
߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ܼሺ݊௑ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ߲‫ ܧ‬െ ߲ܻ݉

௓ሺ௡ೣ ା௡೥ ିଵሻ
5HHPSOD]DQGRܻ݀ ൌ ቀ ቁ ߲‫ܧ‬
ଵି௖ሺଵି௧ሻା௠
 
Juan León Mendoza 193

ܼ݉ሺ݊௑ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ
߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ܼሺ݊௑ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ߲‫ ܧ‬െ ߲‫ܧ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉
݉
߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ൬ͳ െ ൰ ܼሺ݊௑ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ߲‫ܧ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ
߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ቆ ቇ ܼሺ݊௑ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ߲‫ܧ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉
൫ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ൯ܼሺ݊௑ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ
߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ቆ ቇ ߲‫ܧ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉
߲‫ܥܥܤ‬ ߲‫ܥܥܤ‬
൐ Ͳ‫݅ݏ‬ሺ݊௑ ൅ ݊௭ ሻ ൐ ͳ ൏ Ͳ•‹ሺ݊௑ ൅ ݊௭ ሻ ൏ ͳ
߲‫ܧ‬ ߲‫ܧ‬


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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬െ ߲ܻ݉
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ܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲ܻ
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ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲ܻ

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݉
߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ൬ͳ െ ൰ ܺ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ௒
൫ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ൯ܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲‫ܥܥܤ‬
߲‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ቆ ቇ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲ܻ ‫כ‬

Capítulo 9

El mercado de bienes y los


mercados financieros con
movilidad imperfecta de capital

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93El modelo IS-LM-BP es una generalización hecha por Mundell (1968) y Fleming (1962), inicialmente
para una economía pequeña y abierta, del modelo IS-LM para una economía cerrada, formulada por el
premio Nobel de Economía Jhon Hicks, en la década del 30 del siglo XX.
196 Macroeconomía

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ܻ ൌ ‫ܦ‬
Juan León Mendoza 197

‫ ܥ ؠ ܦ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬൅ ‫ ܩ‬൅ ܺ െ ܼ݁


‫ ܥ‬ൌ ‫ܥ‬ሺܻௗ ǡ ‫ݎ‬ሻ
ܻௗ ‫ ܻ ؠ‬൅ ܴܶ െ ܶ
 ൌ –ܻ
‫ ܫ‬ൌ ‫ܫ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ሻ
ܺ ൌ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ
ܼ ൌ ܼሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ
‫כܲܧ‬
݁ൌ 
ܲ

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߲‫ݎ‬ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉


ฬ ൌ ൏ Ͳ
߲ܻ ୍ୗ ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥

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FXDOTXLHUSXQWRVREUHODFXUYD‫ܵܫ‬ODRIHUWD\GHPDQGDGHELHQHVVRQLJXDOHVRHO
DKRUUR HV LJXDO D OD LQYHUVLyQ 3RU HOOR HQ HO JUiILFR  ORV SXQWRV ‫ܤ \ ܣ‬
FRUUHVSRQGHQDSXQWRVGHHTXLOLEULRHQHOPHUFDGRGHELHQHV

94 Véase, en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


198 Macroeconomía

/DFXUYD‫ܵܫ‬HVHOPLVPRPRGHORJUiILFRNH\QHVLDQRVLPSOHGHRGHOSDQHO
VXSHULRU GHO JUiILFR  SHUR GLDJUDPDGR HQ HO SODQR GH OD WDVD GH LQWHUpV \
SURGXFFLyQ

*UiILFR'HULYDFLyQGHODFXUYD,6


r po C n, I no D no D ! Y o Y no D Y 

&XDOTXLHUFRPELQDFLyQGHSURGXFFLyQ\WDVDGHLQWHUpVTXHQRHVWpORFDOL]DGD
VREUH OD FXUYD ‫ ܵܫ‬UHSUHVHQWD HVFHQDULRV GH GHVHTXLOLEULR 3XQWRV XELFDGRV D OD
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RIHUWD‫ ܦ‬൏ ܻ H[FHVRGHRIHUWDGHELHQHV HQWDQWRTXHORVSXQWRVDODL]TXLHUGD
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‫ ܦ‬൐ ܻ 
(VSHFLILFDGDXQDVLWXDFLyQLQLFLDOGHHTXLOLEULRRXQSXQWRFXDOTXLHUDVREUHOD
FXUYD‫ܵܫ‬VLVHUHGXFHODWDVDGHLQWHUpVDXPHQWDODLQYHUVLyQSRUFRQVLJXLHQWHOD
Juan León Mendoza 199

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SURGXFFLyQ 
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WDVD GH LQWHUpV (Q WpUPLQRV JUiILFRV HOOR VH SURGXFLUi FXDQGR FDPELH OD
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/HUQHU

(OHTXLOLEULRGHOPHUFDGRGHGLQHURODIXQFLyQ/0

(O PHUFDGR GH GLQHUR HV XQ PHUFDGR GH SUHFLRV IOH[LEOHV /RV GHVHTXLOLEULRV
HQ HO PHUFDGR PRQHWDULR VH YDFtDQ PHGLDQWH FDPELRV HQ HO SUHFLR GHO DFWLYR
PRQHWDULRHVSHFtILFDPHQWHDWUDYpVGHFDPELRVHQODWDVDGHLQWHUpV
&RPR \D VH GHVDUUROOy DPSOLDPHQWH HQ HO FDStWXOR  HO PHUFDGR GH GLQHUR
HVWi HQ HTXLOLEULR FXDQGR OD RIHUWD ‫ܮ‬ௌ  HV LJXDO D OD GHPDQGD GH GLQHUR ‫ܮ‬஽  /D

RIHUWDGHGLQHURHVLJXDODOVWRFNVDOGRVUHDOHVቀ ቁ/DGHPDQGDGHGLQHURRVDOGRV

UHDOHVGHSHQGHHQVHQWLGRGLUHFWRGHODSURGXFFLyQ ܻ \HQVHQWLGRLQYHUVRGHOD
WDVDGHLQWHUpVGRPpVWLFD ‫ ݎ‬

‫ܮ‬ௌ ൌ ‫ܮ‬஽ 
‫ܯ‬
‫ܮ‬ௌ ൌ 
ܲ
‫ܮ‬஽ ൌ ܻ݇ െ ݄‫ݎ‬

'RQGH݇\݄UHSUHVHQWDQODVHQVLELOLGDGGHODGHPDQGDGHGLQHURUHVSHFWRD
ODSURGXFFLyQ\ODWDVDGHLQWHUpV
200 Macroeconomía

/DPDVDPRQHWDULDQRPLQDOHVLJXDODOSURGXFWRGHOPXOWLSOLFDGRUPRQHWDULR
SRU ODEDVH PRQHWDULD $VXYH] HO PXOWLSOLFDGRUPRQHWDULR GHSHQGH HQ VHQWLGR
LQYHUVRGHOFRHILFLHQWHGHUHVHUYDVEDQFDULDV\GHODSUHIHUHQFLDSRUFLUFXODQWHGH
SDUWH GHO VHFWRU SULYDGR QR ILQDQFLHUR )LQDOPHQWH OD EDVH PRQHWDULD HVWi
FRQGLFLRQDGD SRU ODV RSHUDFLRQHV GH PHUFDGR DELHUWR FRPSUDYHQWD GH ERQRV 
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ODRIHUWD\ODGHPDQGDGHGLQHUR ‫ܮ‬ௌ ‫ܮ‬஽ VHWLHQHODHFXDFLyQGHHTXLOLEULRHQHO
PHUFDGRPRQHWDULRRODGHQRPLQDGDHFXDFLyQ‫ܯܮ‬

‫ܯ‬
ൌ ܻ݇ െ ݄‫ݎ‬ሺͻǤʹሻ
ܲ

/D OyJLFD GH OD HFXDFLyQ GH HTXLOLEULR PRQHWDULR VH SXHGH UHSUHVHQWDU HQ
WpUPLQRV JUiILFRV PHGLDQWH OD FXUYD ‫( ܯܮ‬Q HO SODQR GH OD WDVD GH LQWHUpV \ OD
SURGXFFLyQGRPpVWLFDODFXUYD‫ܯܮ‬WLHQHSHQGLHQWHSRVLWLYDWDOFRPRVHSXHGH
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߲‫ݎ‬ ݇
ฬ  ൌ ൐ Ͳ
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LQWHUpV ݄ 
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GLQHURSDUDGLIHUHQWHVFRPELQDFLRQHVGHSURGXFFLyQ\WDVDGHLQWHUpVGRPpVWLFD
(VGHFLUHQFXDOTXLHUSXQWRVREUHHOODODRIHUWDGHGLQHURHVLJXDODODGHPDQGD
(Q HO PDUFR GH OD OH\ GH :DOUDV XQ SXQWRVREUH OD FXUYD ‫ ܯܮ‬QR VRORUHSUHVHQWD
SXQWRV GH HTXLOLEULR HQ HO PHUFDGR GH GLQHUR VLQR WDPELpQ HQ HO PHUFDGR GH
ERQRV
(Q HO SDQHO GHUHFKR GHO JUiILFR  VH H[SRQH OD VLWXDFLyQ GH HTXLOLEULR
PRQHWDULR HQ WpUPLQRV GH RIHUWD \ GHPDQGD GH GLQHUR /D FXUYD GH OD ‫ ܯܮ‬HV
VLPSOHPHQWHXQDIRUPDDOWHUQDWLYDGHUHSUHVHQWDUJUiILFDPHQWHGLFKDVLWXDFLyQGH
HTXLOLEULRSHURHQHOSODQRGHODSURGXFFLyQ\ODWDVDGHLQWHUpV
&RPELQDFLRQHVGHSURGXFFLyQ\WDVDGHLQWHUpVTXHQRHVWiQVREUHODFXUYD
‫ܯܮ‬UHIOHMDQSXQWRVGHGHVHTXLOLEULRHQHOPHUFDGRGHGLQHUR\ERQRV3XQWRVDO
ODGR GHUHFKR FRUUHVSRQGHQ D VLWXDFLRQHV GH H[FHVR GH GHPDQGD GH GLQHUR
H[FHVR GH RIHUWD GH ERQRV  \ DO ODGR L]TXLHUGR H[FHVRV GH RIHUWD GH GLQHUR
H[FHVRGHGHPDQGDGHERQRV 

95Véase, en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


Juan León Mendoza 201

*UiILFR'HULYDFLyQGHODFXUYD/0


§ LD ! LS o r no LD LS ·
Y no LD no ¨ S
¨ B ! B D o P po B D B S ¸¸ 
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H[FHVR GH GHPDQGD GH GLQHUR H[FHVR GH RIHUWD GH ERQRV  $QWH HOOROD WDVD GH
LQWHUpVGHEHDXPHQWDU HOSUHFLRGHOERQRGHEHFDHU SDUDHTXLOLEUDUHOPHUFDGR
PRQHWDULR HOPHUFDGRGHERQRV FRQILJXUiQGRVHDVtXQDFXUYD‫ܯܮ‬GHSHQGLHQWH
SRVLWLYD
/RVSXQWRVGHHTXLOLEULRGHOPHUFDGRGHGLQHURVHPRGLILFDQFXDQGRFDPELD
ODSHQGLHQWHRFXDQGRVHGHVSOD]DODFXUYD‫ܯܮ‬
/DSHQGLHQWHGHODFXUYD‫ܯܮ‬VHUiPD\RU ODFXUYD‫ܯܮ‬VHUiPiVHPSLQDGD HQ
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FHURHOPHUFDGRFDPELDULRWDPELpQHVWDUiHQVLWXDFLyQGHHTXLOLEULR
202 Macroeconomía

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TXHHQWUDQDOSDtVGRPpVWLFRGHVGHHOH[WHULRUSRUWRGRWLSRGHWUDQVDFFLRQHVVRQ
PD\RUHVGHORVTXHVDOHQSRUORTXHVHSURGXFLUiXQH[FHVRGHRIHUWDGHGLYLVDV
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DXPHQWDUiQODVLPSRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHV ODEDODQ]DHQFXHQWDFRUULHQWHWHQGHUiDO
GpILFLW  OR FXDO DQXODUi HO VDOGR VXSHUDYLWDULR LQLFLDO GH OD EDODQ]D GH SDJRV (O
WLSRGH FDPELR FDHUi KDVWDTXHODEDODQ]D GH SDJRV WHQJD XQVDOGR LJXDO D FHUR
KDVWDTXHHOPHUFDGRFDPELDULRHVWpHQHTXLOLEULR 
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VHUYLFLRV/DVH[SRUWDFLRQHVGHELHQHV\VHUYLFLRV(X)GHSHQGHQHQVHQWLGRGLUHFWR
GHO WLSR GH FDPELR UHDO \ GH OD SURGXFFLyQ LQWHUQDFLRQDO /DV LPSRUWDFLRQHV (Z)
HVWiQ HQ IXQFLyQ LQYHUVD GHO WLSR GH FDPELR UHDO \ HQ IXQFLyQ GLUHFWD GH OD
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ߠ 

‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ ‫ ܥܥܤ‬൅ ‫ ܨܥ‬ൌ Ͳ


‫ ܥܥܤ‬ൌ ܺ െ ܼ݁
ܺ ൌ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ
ܼ ൌ ܼሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ
‫ ܨܥ‬ൌ ‫ܨܥ‬ሾ‫ ݎ‬െ ሺ‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ‫ כ ܧ‬൅ ߠሻሿ

(IHFWXDQGRORVUHHPSOD]RVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVVHGHULYDODHFXDFLyQGHOD
EDODQ]DGHSDJRVHQVXIRUPDUHGXFLGD

‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ǡ ‫ כ ݎ‬ǡ ‫ כ ܧ‬ǡ ߠሻ ൌ ͲሺͻǤ͵ሻ

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UHSUHVHQWDGR SRU OD HFXDFLyQ   WDPELpQ VH SXHGH H[SUHVDU HQ WpUPLQRV

96 Una caída en el tipo de cambio nominal también ocasionará modificaciones en las expectativas
devaluatorias, lo cual afectará a la cuenta financiera mediante la menor importación y la mayor
exportación de capital financiero.
97 Por simplificación consideramos dada, o como una variable exógena, a la tasa de depreciación

esperada de la moneda nacional. En el modelo del capítulo 10 se levantará dicho supuesto.


Juan León Mendoza 203

JUiILFRVHQHOSODQRGHODWDVDGHLQWHUpV\ODSURGXFFLyQGRPpVWLFDDWUDYpVGHOD
FXUYD‫ܲܤ‬GHSHQGLHQWHSRVLWLYD

߲‫ݎ‬ ݉
ฬ ൌ ൐ Ͳ
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PRYLOLGDGGHFDSLWDOILQDQFLHURRODVHQVLELOLGDGGHODFXHQWDILQDQFLHUDUHVSHFWRD
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SURSHQVLyQPDUJLQDODLPSRUWDU\HOJUDGRGHPRYLOLGDGGHFDSLWDO
(Q HO JUiILFR  OD FXUYD ‫ ܲܤ‬UHSUHVHQWD ORV SXQWRV GH HTXLOLEULR GHO VHFWRU
H[WHUQRSDUDGLIHUHQWHVFRPELQDFLRQHVGHWDVDGHLQWHUpV\SURGXFFLyQGRPpVWLFD
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RIHUWD \ OD GHPDQGD GH GLYLVDV VRQ LJXDOHV 3XQWRV D OD GHUHFKD GH OD FXUYD ‫ܲܤ‬
UHIOHMDQ VLWXDFLRQHV GH GpILFLW HQ OD EDODQ]D GH SDJRV ‫ ܲܤ‬൏ ܱ  R H[FHVR GH
GHPDQGDGHGLYLVDVH[WUDQMHUDV3XQWRVDOODGRL]TXLHUGRFRUUHVSRQGHQDOFDVRGH
VXSHUiYLWH[WHUQR ‫ ܲܤ‬൐ ܱ RH[FHVRGHRIHUWDGHGLYLVDV

*UiILFR'HULYDFLyQGHODFXUYD%3


Y no Z no BCC po ( BP  0 d D ! d S ) o debe...r no CF no BP 0, d D d S 

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SURGXFFLyQ WHQGUtD TXH LQFUHPHQWDUVH OD WDVD GH LQWHUpV GRPpVWLFD SDUD TXH OD
EDODQ]D GH SDJRV YXHOYD D WHQHU XQ VDOGR LJXDO D FHUR FRQILJXUiQGRVH DVt XQD
FXUYD ‫ ܲܤ‬GH SHQGLHQWH SRVLWLYD 8Q DXPHQWR HQ OD SURGXFFLyQ JHQHUD XQ
98Véase en el apéndice la derivación algebraica correspondiente.
204 Macroeconomía

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PRYLPLHQWRGHORVIOXMRVGHFDSLWDODQWHFDPELRVHQODUHQWDELOLGDGUHODWLYDGHORV
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PD\RUPRYLOLGDG
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(QHOSDQHOLQIHULRUL]TXLHUGRHQHOSXQWR‫ܣ‬GRQGHVHLQWHUVHFWDQODVFXUYDV
‫ ܲܤ \ ܯܮ  ܵܫ‬FRUUHVSRQGH D OD VLWXDFLyQ GH HTXLOLEULR VLPXOWiQHR HQ WRGRV ORV
PHUFDGRVGHOPRGHORHVGHFLUHQGLFKRSXQWRSDUDXQQLYHOGHSURGXFFLyQ\WDVD
GH LQWHUpV GH ܻ௢  \ ‫ݎ‬௢  UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH HO PHUFDGR GH ELHQHV GLQHUR ERQRV \
GLYLVDVHVWiQHQHTXLOLEULR
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ELHQHV R OD OyJLFD GH OD FXUYD ‫ ܵܫ‬HQ WpUPLQRV GH RIHUWD \ GHPDQGD GH ELHQHV
FRQRFLGRWDPELpQFRPRHOPRGHORNH\QHVLDQRVLPSOHGHR

99 Asumiendo que se cumple la condición Marshall-Lerner.


100 Asumiendo que se cumple la condición Marshall-Lerner.
Juan León Mendoza 205

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TXHVXE\DFHWUDVODFXUYD‫ܯܮ‬
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104 Véase en el apéndice la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


Juan León Mendoza 217

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Juan León Mendoza 219


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110 Véase, en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


Juan León Mendoza 229


$3e1',&(

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ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬ሺܻௗ ൌ ܻ ൅ ܴܶ െ –ǡ ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ܫ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ ܩ‬൅ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ‡ǡ ܻሻ‫ܵܫ‬ሺͻǤͳሻ
‫ܯ‬
ൌ ܻ݇ െ ݄‫ܯܮݎ‬ሺͻǤʹሻ
ܲ
‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ǡ ‫ כ ݎ‬ǡ ‫ כ ܧ‬ǡ ߠሻ  ൌ Ͳ‫ܲܤ‬ሺͻǤ͵ሻ

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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻെ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ‫ܥ‬௥ ൏ Ͳ‫ܫ‬௥ ൏ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ͳ ݎ‬െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ݎ‬
ൌ  ൏ Ͳ
߲ܻ ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲ܻ

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Ͳ ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
݄߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇
߲‫݇ ݎ‬ ߲‫ݎ‬
ൌ  ൐ Ͳ
߲ܻ ݄ ߲ܻ

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߲‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ െܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ Ͳ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൐ Ͳ
Ͳ ൌ െܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
Ͳ ൌ െ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
െ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ߲ܻ݉
߲‫ݎ‬ ݉ ߲‫ݎ‬
ൌ  ൐ Ͳ
߲ܻ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲ܻ

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ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬ሺܻௗ ൌ ܻ ൅ ܴܶ െ –ǡ ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ܫ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ ܩ‬൅ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ‡ǡ ܻሻ‫ܵܫ‬ሺͻǤͳሻ
ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬൅ ‫ ܦܧܴܥ‬൅ ‫ ܤ‬ൌ ܻ݇ െ ݄‫ܯܮݎ‬ሺͻǤʹሻ
‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ǡ ‫ כ ݎ‬ǡ ‫ כ ܧ‬ǡ ߠሻ  ൌ Ͳ‫ܲܤ‬ሺͻǤ͵ሻ
230 Macroeconomía


ܲ‫݅ݏ݊݁݌݋ݎ‬y݊݉ܽ‫ݎܽݐݎ݋݌݈݉݅ܽܽ݊݅݃ݎ‬ǣ݉ ൌ ܼ݁௒ 
ܲ‫݅ݏ݊݁݌݋ݎ‬y݊݉ܽ‫ݎ݅݉ݑݏ݊݋݈ܿܽܽ݊݅݃ݎ‬ǣܿ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ 
ܲ ൌ ͳ݉‫ ݋݅ݎܽݐ݁݊݋݉ݎ݋݈݀ܽܿ݅݌݅ݐ݈ݑ‬ൌ ͳ

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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻെ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬

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߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬

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߲‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ െ݁ଢ଼ ߲ ൅  ୰ ߲” ൌ ߲ 
߲  ൌ െ߲݉ ൅  ୰ ߲”

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െ߲ܻ݉ ൅  ୰ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ
݇൅݉
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ  ߲ܻ
 ୰ ൅ Š

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ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ߲ܻ ൅ ߲‫ܩ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
ቆͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ ߲‫ܩ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š
ͳ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ቎ ሺ௞ା௠ሻሺ஼ೝ ାூೝ ሻ
቏ ߲‫ܩ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ߲‫ܩ‬
େ୊౨ ା୦

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݇൅݉ ͳ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ൬ ൰቎ ቏ ߲‫ܩ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ሺ௞ା௠ሻሺ஼ೝ ାூೝ ሻ
େ୊౨ ା୦
݇൅݉ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ܩ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ߲‫ܩ‬

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GLIHUHQFLDGD
Juan León Mendoza 231

ͳ ݇൅݉
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ݇ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ ܩ‬െ ǟ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ܩ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ
ሺ௞ା௠ሻሺ஼ೝ ାூೝ ሻ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
େ୊౨ ା୦
 ୰ ൅ Š ݇൅݉
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ݇ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ ܩ‬െ ǟ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ܩ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
݇ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ǟሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ߲‫ܩ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
 ୰ െ Š
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ܩ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
൐ Ͳ‫ ݅ݏ‬୰ ൐ Š
߲‫ܩ‬
߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
൏ Ͳ‫ ݅ݏ‬୰ ൏ Š
߲‫ܩ‬

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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻെ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ܻ߲‫ ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ݁ଢ଼ ߲
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܻ߲ܿ‫ݐ‬

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ/0
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬

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߲‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ െ݁ଢ଼ ߲ ൅  ୰ ߲” ൌ ߲ 

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െ߲ܻ݉ ൅  ୰ ߲୰ ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ
݇൅݉
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ  ߲ܻ
 ୰ ൅ Š

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ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ߲ܻ െ ܻ߲ܿ‫ݐ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
ቆͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ െܻ߲ܿ‫ݐ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š
ܻܿ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ െ ቎ ሺ௞ା௠ሻሺ஼ೝ ାூೝ ሻ
቏ ߲‫ݐ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ߲‫ݐ‬
େ୊౨ ା୦

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݇൅݉ ܻܿ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ൬ ൰቎ ቏ ߲‫ݐ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ሺ௞ା௠ሻሺ஼ೝ ାூೝ ሻ
େ୊౨ ା୦
232 Macroeconomía

ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻܻܿ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ ݐ‬൏ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ߲‫ݐ‬

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…
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ െ݇ ቎ ሺ௞ା௠ሻሺ஼ೝ ାூೝ ሻ
቏ ߲‫ݐ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ
େ୊౨ ା୦
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻܻܿ
൅ Šቈ ቉ ߲‫ݐ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ…
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ െ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ݐ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
Šሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻܻܿ
൅ቈ ቉ ߲‫ݐ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
൫െ݇ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ ൅ ǟሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ൯…
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ݐ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
ሺŠ െ  ୰ ሻ…
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ݐ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
൐ Ͳ‫ Š݅ݏ‬൐  ୰ 
߲‫ݐ‬
߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
൏ Ͳ‫ Š݅ݏ‬൏  ୰ 
߲‫ݐ‬


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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ݁ଢ଼ ߲ܻ൅ܺ௘ ߲ୣ െ ‡ୣ ߲‡ െ ܼ߲ୣ 
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ߲݁
‫݋݀ܽܦ‬ǣߚ ൌ ܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ߲݁ ൌ ߲‫ܧ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬

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߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬

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߲‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ ܺ௘ ߲݁Ȅ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁ െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
Juan León Mendoza 233


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ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ െ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬
݇൅݉ ߚ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ܧ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š  ୰ ൅ Š

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݇൅݉ ߚ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ൤ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ܧ‬൨ ൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š  ୰ ൅ Š
ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻߚ
ቈሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ െ ቉ ߲ܻ ൌ െ ߲‫ ܧ‬൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š  ୰ ൅ Š
ሾሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሿ߲ܻ ൌ ሾെሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ൅  ୰ ൅ Šሿߚ߲‫ܧ‬
൫ ୰ ൅ Š െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ൯ܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ
߲ܻ ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ܧ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
߲ܻ
൐ Ͳ‫݅ݏ‬ሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ ሻ ൐ ͳ
߲‫ܧ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQODLJXDOGDGGHOD/0\%3GLIHUHQFLDGD
݇൅݉ ൫ ୰ ൅ Š െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ൯ߚ ߚ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ൬ ൰ቈ ቉ ߲‫ ܧ‬െ ߲‫ܧ‬
 ୰ ൅ Š ሺͳ ሺ‫ܥ‬
െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ  ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ  ୰ ൅ Š
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ൫ ୰ ൅ Š െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ൯ െ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ ൅ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬
ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ
݇ ൅ ݉ െ ͳ ൅ ܿ െ ܿ‫ ݐ‬െ ݉ ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ൤ ൨ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ
ሺ݇ ൅ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ͳሻܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ܧ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
߲‫ݎ‬
൐ Ͳ‫ ݇݅ݏ‬൅ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൐ ͳ‫݋݀ܽܦ‬ሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ ሻ ൐ ͳ
߲‫ܧ‬
߲‫ݎ‬
൏ Ͳ‫ ݇݅ݏ‬൅ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൏ ͳ‫݋݀ܽܦ‬ሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ ሻ ൐ ͳ
߲‫ܧ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGR HO UHVXOWDGR GH OD SURGXFFLyQ \ OD WDVD GH LQWHUpV HQ OD /0
GLIHUHQFLDGD
൫ ୰ ൅ Š െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ൯ߚ ሺ݇ ൅ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ͳሻߚ
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ݇ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ ܧ‬െ ǟ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ܧ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
൫݇‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄݇ െ ݇ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ൯ߚ െ ሺ݄݇ ൅ ݄ܿ െ ݄ܿ‫ ݐ‬െ ݄ሻߚ
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ܧ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
൫݇ ୰ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ൅ ǟሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ൯ܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ܧ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ ୰ ൅ Šሻ െ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
൐ Ͳ‫݅ݏ‬ሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ ሻ ൐ ͳ
߲‫ܧ‬

234 Macroeconomía

8QDFDtGDHQODSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQDFLRQDO

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ,6
߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ/0
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ%3
߲‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬

,JXDODQGROD/0\%3GLIHUHQFLDGD
ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ െ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
݇൅݉ ܺ௒ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD,6GLIHUHQFLDGD
݇൅݉ ܺ௒ ‫כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ൬ ߲ܻ െ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬൰ ൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄
ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ
ቆͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ ቆͳ െ ቇ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄
ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ െ ‫ܥ‬௥ െ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲ܻ ‫ כ  כ‬൐ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ߲ܻ

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQODLJXDOGDGGHOD/0\%3GLIHUHQFLDGD
݇൅݉ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ െ ‫ܥ‬௥ െ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ܺ௒ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ൬ ൰൤ ൨ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬െ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሾሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻሿ ܺ௒ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ െ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻܺ௒ ‫כ כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲ܻ 
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄
ሺ݇ െ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻܺ௒ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ൤ ൨ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
߲‫ݎ‬
൐ Ͳ‫ ݇݅ݏ‬൐ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ
߲ܻ ‫כ‬
߲‫ݎ‬
൏ Ͳ‫ ݇݅ݏ‬൏ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ
߲ܻ ‫כ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGR HO UHVXOWDGR GH OD SURGXFFLyQ \ OD WDVD GH LQWHUpV HQ OD /0
GLIHUHQFLDGD
Juan León Mendoza 235

ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ െ ‫ܥ‬௥ െ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻܺ௒ ‫כ‬


߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ݇ ቈ ቉ ߲ܻ ‫כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
ሺ݇ െ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻܺ௒ ‫כ‬
െ݄ቈ ቉ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
݇‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄݇ െ ݇‫ܥ‬௥ െ ݇‫ܫ‬௥ െ ݄݇ ൅ ݄ െ ݄ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ൤ ൨ ܺ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ௒
݇ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ െ ‫ܥ‬௥ െ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ൅ ݄ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ܺ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ௒
݇ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ െ ‫ܥ‬௥ െ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ൅ ݄ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ ߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ܺ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ௒ ߲ܻ ‫כ‬

8QLQFUHPHQWRHQODWDVDGHLQWHUpVLQWHUQDFLRQDO

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ,6
߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻܻ݀ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ݎ‬

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ/0
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ%3
߲‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ െܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ כ ݎ߲ כ‬ൌ ߲ܴ‫ܨܥܰܫ‬௥ ‫ כ‬൏ Ͳ

,JXDODQGROD/0\%3GLIHUHQFLDGD
െ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ כ ݎ߲ כ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ כ ݎ߲ כ‬
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD,6GLIHUHQFLDGD
ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ ݎ‬
ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ
ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ כ‬
ቆͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ െ ߲‫ ݎ‬
ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ כ‬
ቆ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ െ ߲‫ ݎ‬
‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ
ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ െ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ כ  כ ݎ‬൏ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ߲‫ݎ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQODLJXDOGDGGHOD/0\%3GLIHUHQFLDGD
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ  െ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬െ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ
236 Macroeconomía

ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬


߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ  െቈ ൅ ͳ቉ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ
ሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ൅ ሺͳ െ ܿ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ  െቈ ቉ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ כ  כ ݎ‬൐ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ߲‫ݎ‬

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ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ െ݇ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ݄ ቈ ቉ ߲‫כ ݎ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ
ሺሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ݄ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ݇ሻ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬ ߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻሺ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൅ ݄ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻሺ݇ ൅ ݉ሻ ߲‫כ ݎ‬

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ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬ሺܻௗ ൌ ܻ ൅ ܴܶ െ –ǡ ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ܫ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ ܩ‬൅ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ‡ǡ ܻሻ ሺͻǤͳሻ
‫ ܯ‬ൌ ܻ݇ െ ݄‫ܯܮݎ‬ሺͻǤʹሻ
‫ ܲܤ‬ൌ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ǡ ‫ כ ݎ‬ǡ ‫ כ ܧ‬ǡ ߠሻ  ൌ Ͳ‫ܲܤ‬ሺͻǤ͵ሻ

ܲ‫݅ݏ݊݁݌݋ݎ‬y݊݉ܽ‫ݎܽݐݎ݋݌݈݉݅ܽܽ݊݅݃ݎ‬ǣ݉ ൌ ܼ݁௒ 
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ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ ൌ ܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ ൐ Ͳ

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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ൅ܺ௘ ߲௘ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲߲݁‫ ܩ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬

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Ͳ ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
݇
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ
݄

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ܺ௘ ߲݁Ȅ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ Ͳ
ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁ െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ Ͳ
ߚ߲݁ െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ Ͳ
Juan León Mendoza 237

ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݉ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬


݉ ‫ܨܥ‬௥
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ ߚ

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ߚ݉ ߚ‫ܨܥ‬௥
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ ߚ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬

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݇
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲ܻ ൅ ߲‫ܩ‬
݄
݇
൬ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ൰ ߲ܻ ൌ ߲‫ ܩ‬
݄
ͳ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ቎ ௞ ቏ ߲‫ܩ߲ ܩ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ


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݇ ͳ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ܩ‬
݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞

ͳ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ௛ ቏ ߲‫ܩ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲‫ܩ‬


5HHPSOD]DQGRUHVXOWDGRGHODSURGXFFLyQ\WDVDGHLQWHUpVGLIHUHQFLDGDHQOD%3
GLIHUHQFLDGD

݉ ͳ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ݇ ͳ
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ ܩ‬െ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ ܩ‬
ߚ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞ ߚ݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞
௛ ௛

݉ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ͳ
௞ ቏ ߲‫ܩ‬

߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ቏቎
ߚ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ


߲‫ܧ‬ ݇
൐ Ͳ‫݅ݏ‬ǣ݉ ൐ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ 
߲‫ܩ‬ ݄
߲‫ܧ‬ ݇
൏ Ͳ‫݅ݏ‬ǣ݉ ൏ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ 
߲‫ܩ‬ ݄

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238 Macroeconomía

߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ܻ߲‫ ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ൅ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܻ߲ܿ‫ ݐ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܻ߲ܿ‫ ݐ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬

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Ͳ ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
݇
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ
݄

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ܺ௘ ߲݁Ȅ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ Ͳ
ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁ െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ Ͳ
ߚ߲݁ െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ Ͳ
ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݉ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
݉ ‫ܨܥ‬௥
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ ߚ

5HHPSOD]DQGROD%3GLIHUHQFLDGDHQOD,6GLIHUHQFLDGD
ߚ݉ ߚ‫ܨܥ‬௥
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܻ߲ܿ‫ ݐ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ ߚ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ൫ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൯߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܻ߲ܿ‫ݐ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGROD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
݇
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻܻ݀ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲ܻ െ ܻ߲ܿ‫ݐ‬
݄
݇
൬ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ൰ ߲ܻ ൌ െܻ߲ܿ‫ݐ‬
݄
ܻܿ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ െ ቎ ௞ ቏ ߲‫ݐ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲‫ݐ‬


5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
݇ ܻܿ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ݐ‬
݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞

ܻܿ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቎ ௛ ቏ ߲‫ݐ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲‫ݐ‬


5HHPSOD]DQGRUHVXOWDGRGHODSURGXFFLyQ\WDVDGHLQWHUpVGLIHUHQFLDGDHQOD%3
GLIHUHQFLDGD
݉ ܻܿ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ݇ ܻܿ
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ െ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ ݐ‬൅ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ݐ‬
ߚ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞ ߚ݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞
௛ ௛
Juan León Mendoza 239


‫ܨܥ‬௥ െ ݉ ܻܿ
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎௛
ߚ
቏቎ ௞ ቏ ߲‫ݐ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ

߲‫ܧ‬ ݇
൐ Ͳ‫݅ݏ‬ǣ݉ ൏ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ 
߲‫ݐ‬ ݄
߲‫ܧ‬ ݇
൏ Ͳ‫݅ݏ‬ǣ݉ ൐ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ 
߲‫ݐ‬ ݄

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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ൅ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
൫ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ൯߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬

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߲‫ ܯ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
ͳ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ሺ߲ܻ݇ െ ߲‫ܯ‬ሻ
݄

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ܺ௘ ߲݁Ȅ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ Ͳ
ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁ ൌ ߲ܻ݉ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݉ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
݉ ‫ܨܥ‬௥
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ ߚ

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ߚ݉ ߚ‫ܨܥ‬௥
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅  ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ ߚ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ݎ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGROD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ቆ ሺ߲ܻ݇ െ ߲‫ܯ‬ሻቇ
݄
݇ ͳ
൬ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ൰ ߲ܻ ൌ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ܯ‬
݄ ݄

ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲ܻ

߲ܻ ൌ െ ቎ ௞ ቏ ߲‫ ܯ߲ ܯ‬൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ


5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
240 Macroeconomía

ͳ െሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇


߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቈ ߲‫ ܯ‬െ ߲‫ܯ‬቉
݄ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ݄ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇
ͳ െሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቈ െ ͳ቉ ߲‫ܯ‬
݄ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ݄ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇
ͳ െሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇ െ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ݄ ൅ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ܯ‬
݄ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ݄ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ܯ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ݄ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇ ߲‫ܯ‬

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߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ௛
቏ ߲‫ ܯ‬൅ ቎ ௛
቏ ߲‫ܯ‬
ߚ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞ ߚ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞
௛ ௛
௠ ஼ிೝ
ͳ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ
௞ ߲‫ܯ‬቏
௛ ௛
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ߲‫ ܯ‬൅
ߚ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ
௛ ௛
ͳ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ െ ݉ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲‫ܧ‬
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቈ ቉ ߲‫ܯ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ߚ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ݄ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ݇ ߲‫ܯ‬

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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ൅ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁൅ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁ ൅  ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬൅  ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬

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݇
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݄

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ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁ ൌ ߲ܻ݉െܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݉െܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ݎ‬
݉ ܺ௒ ‫כ כ‬ ‫ܨܥ‬௥
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲ܻ െ  ߲‫ݎ‬
ߚ ߚ ߚ

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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬െ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ݎ‬
Juan León Mendoza 241

߲ܻ
ൌ Ͳ
߲ܻ ‫כ‬

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߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ െ ߲ܻ  ‫ כ‬൏ Ͳ
ߚ ߲ܻ

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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ߲ܻ݉ ൅ ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬

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݇
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ
݄

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ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁ ൌ ߲ܻ݉ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ כ ݎ߲ כ‬
ߚ߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݉ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ כ ݎ߲ כ‬
݉ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ כ‬
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ߲ܻ െ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ߲‫ ݎ‬
ߚ ߚ ߚ

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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ כ ݎ߲ כ‬

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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ כ ݎ߲ כ‬
݄
݇
൬ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ൰ ߲ܻ ൌ െ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫ כ ݎ߲ כ‬
ሺ‫ܥ‬ ሻ
݄
‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ െ ቎ ௞ ቏ ߲‫ݎ‬
‫כ‬
 ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲‫כ ݎ‬


242 Macroeconomía

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݇ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞


‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ‬ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቎ ௛
௞ ቏ ߲‫ݎ‬
‫כ‬
 ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߲‫כ ݎ‬


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߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ െ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ቎ ௛
቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬െ ߲‫ ݎ‬
ߚ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞ ߚ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ௞ ߚ
௛ ௛
݇ൗ ‫ܨܥ‬ ݉ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ‫כ כ‬
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ݄ ௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬
௞െ ௞ െ ͳ቏
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ ߚ
௛ ௛
݇ൗ ሺ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬ሻ െ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ ‫כ ܨܥ‬ ߲‫ܧ‬
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ݄
௥ ௥ ௥ ‫כ‬
௞ ቏ ߚ ߲‫ כ ݎ߲  ݎ‬൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ‫ܨܥ‬௥ ሻ




Capítulo 10

El mercado de bienes y los


mercados financieros con
movilidad perfecta de capital

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244 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 245

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246 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 247

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111 Véase, en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


248 Macroeconomía

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112 Véase, en el apéndice, la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


Juan León Mendoza 249

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250 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 251

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113Esta versión del modelo IS-LM-BP, en la línea de lo originalmente formulado por Robert Mundell y
Marcus Fleming, considera en la LM el mercado de masa monetaria. Un texto muy similar en el esquema
en que presentamos el modelo es el de Mendoza y Herrera (2006). Sin embargo, dichos autores
consideran en la LM el mercado de base monetaria. Si asumimos el valor del multiplicador monetario, el
cambio en la masa monetaria será igual a la variación de la base monetaria; por ende, en términos
generales, el análisis con ambos tipos de agregados monetarios arrojarán resultados similares.
252 Macroeconomía

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120En el apéndice, véase la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


121Si se asumiera que la tasa de depreciación esperada fuera igual a cero (‫ כ ܧ‬ൌ Ͳ), es decir, si el tipo de
cambio nominal esperado variara en la magnitud en que lo hizo el tipo de cambio nominal observado,
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Juan León Mendoza 267

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268 Macroeconomía

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122 En el apéndice, véase la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


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124 Si se asumiera que la tasa de depreciación esperada fuera igual a cero (‫ כ ܧ‬ൌ Ͳ), es decir, si el tipo de
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el punto de equilibrio inicial ‫ܣ‬Ǥ
Juan León Mendoza 271

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126 En el apéndice, véase la derivación algebraica correspondiente.


274 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 275

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127 El teorema de la trinidad imposible fue formulado por Mundell (1968).


276 Macroeconomía

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Juan León Mendoza 277


$3e1',&(

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െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ

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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ െሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ݎ‬ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ݎ‬
ൌെ  ൏ Ͳ
߲ܻ ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲ܻ

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‫ܧ‬௘ ‫ܧ‬௘
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‫ܧ‬ ‫ܧ‬௘
‫ܧ‬ ‫ܧ‬௘
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‫ܧ‬ ‫ܧ‬
‫ܧ‬௘
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‫ܧ‬
‫ܧ‬௘
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‫ܧ‬
߲‫ܧ‬ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ܧ‬
ൌ  ൐ Ͳ‫݅ݏ‬ሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ ሻ ൐ ͳ
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‫ܧ‬
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ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬൅ ‫ ܦܧܴܥ‬൅ ‫ ܤ‬ൌ ܻ݇ െ ݄‫ܯܮݎ‬ሺͳͲǤͶሻ

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278 Macroeconomía

ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ߲‫ܩ‬


ͳ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ܩ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ܩ‬

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݇ ߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
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ܻܿ ߲ܻ
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ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ݐ‬

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ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ݐ‬

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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁

Juan León Mendoza 279

'DGRܲ ൌ ܲ‫ כ‬ൌ ͳߚ ൌ ܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ ൌ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ ൐ Ͳ


ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬

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߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ Š߲‫ݎ‬

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߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ଶ ߲‫ܧ‬ ൏ Ͳ
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‫ܧ‬
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‫ܧ‬
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ߚ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ మ ߲ܻ

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ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ‫ܧ‬ଶ
ா೐
ቀߚ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ாమ ቁ ݇ ǟ‫ ܧ‬௘ ߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ቎ ൅ ቏ ߲‫ܧ‬ ൐ Ͳ
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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
ܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ൤ ൨ ߲ܻ ‫ כ  כ‬൐ Ͳ
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280 Macroeconomía

ܺ௒ ‫כ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ݇ ൤ ൨ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉
݇ܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ൤ ൨ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲ܻ ‫כ‬

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߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲‫ כ  כ ݎ‬൐ Ͳ
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‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ൤ ൨ ߲‫ כ  כ ݎ‬൏ Ͳ
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ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉
݇ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ߲ܴ‫ܰܫ‬
߲ܴ‫ ܰܫ‬ൌ ൤ െ ݄൨ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬ ൏ Ͳ
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‫ܧ‬௘ െ ‫ܧ‬
‫ ݎ‬ൌ ‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ‫ כ ܧ‬൅ ߠ ൌ  ‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ൬ ൰ ൅ ߠ‫ܲܤ‬ሺͳͲǤͳሻ
‫ܧ‬
ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬ሺܻௗ ൌ ܻ ൅ ܴܶ െ –ǡ ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ܫ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ ܩ‬൅ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ ሺͳͲǤʹሻ
‫ ܯ‬ൌ ܻ݇ െ ݄‫ܯܮݎ‬ሺͳͲǤͶሻ

'DGRܲ ൌ ܲ‫ כ‬ൌ ͳǡ ݁݊‫ ܧݏ݁ܿ݊݋ݐ‬ൌ ݁ǡ ߚ ൌ ܼሺ݊௫ ൅ ݊௭ െ ͳሻ ൌ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ ൐ Ͳ

 
Juan León Mendoza 281

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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߲‫ ܩ‬൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬

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‫ܧ‬
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ
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‫ܧ‬ ݄
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ݇
ቆͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ௘ ቇ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ ߲‫ܩ‬
‫ܧ‬ ݄
ͳ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ܩ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ  ቁ௛ ߲‫ܩ‬
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݇ ͳ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ቏ ߲ܻ
݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቀ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬െ  ఉாమቁ ௞
௥ ௥ ೐ ா ௛

௛ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ܩ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ  ቁ௛ ߲‫ܩ‬
ா೐

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD%3GLIHUHQFLDGD
282 Macroeconomía


‫ܧ‬ଶ ௛
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ െ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ܩ‬
‫ ܧ‬௘ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቀ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬െ  ఉாమቁ ௞
௥ ௥ ೐ ா ௛
ாమ ௞
ா೐ ௛ ߲‫ܧ‬
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ െ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ܩ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ  ቁ௛ ߲‫ܩ‬
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߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ܻ߲‫ ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ܻ߲‫ ݐ‬൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ܻ߲‫ ݐ‬൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬

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‫ܧ‬
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ
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‫ܧ‬ ݄
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ݇
ቆͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ௘ ቇ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ െܻ߲ܿ‫ݐ‬
‫ܧ‬ ݄
ܻܿ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ െ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ܻ߲ܿ‫ݐ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ  ቁ௛ ߲‫ݐ‬
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5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
Juan León Mendoza 283

݇ ܻܿ
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ݐ‬
݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቀ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬െ  ఉாమ ቁ ௞
௥ ௥ ೐ ா ௛

ܻܿ ߲‫ݎ‬

߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ݐ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ  ቁ௛ ߲‫ݐ‬
ா೐

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‫ܧ‬ଶ െ ܻܿ

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௥ ௥ ೐ ா ௛
ாమ ௞
ܻܿ ߲‫ܧ‬
ா೐ ௛
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ݐ‬ ൐ Ͳ
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ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬

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‫ܧ‬
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ
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‫ܧ‬ ݄ ݄
284 Macroeconomía

ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ݇ ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ͳ
ቆͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቇ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ െ ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቇ ߲‫ܯ‬
‫ܧ‬௘ ݄ ‫ܧ‬௘ ݄
ఉா మ ଵ
ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ா೐
ቁ௛ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ െ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ܯ‬ ൐ Ͳ
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݇ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ା ‫ܫ‬௥Ȃ ா೐ ቁ ௛ ͳ
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݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ ܫ ܥ‬െ ఉா ݄
௥ା ௥ ೐ ቁ ா ௛
௞ ఉா మ
െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ା ‫ܫ‬௥Ȃ ቁ ͳ
௛ ா೐
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ െ ͳ቏ ߲‫ܯ‬
ఉா మ ௞
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ா ௛
௞ ఉா మ ఉா మ ௞
െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ା ‫ܫ‬௥Ȃ ቁ െ ቀͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ା ‫ܫ‬௥Ȃ ቁ ௛ቁ ͳ
௛ ா೐ ா೐
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ܯ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ା ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ௛ ݄
ா೐

െ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ

߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ܯ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ା ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ௛
ா೐

ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ ߲‫ݎ‬


߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ቎ ఉா మ
቏ ߲‫ܯ‬ ൏ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ݄ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ݇ ߲‫ܯ‬
ா೐

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD%3GLIHUHQFLDGD
‫ܧ‬ଶ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ܯ‬
‫ ܧ‬௘ ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ݄ െ ቀ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬െ ఉாమቁ ݇
௥ ௥ ೐ ா
ாమ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ ߲‫ܧ‬
ா೐
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ
቏ ߲‫ܯ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ݄ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ݇ ߲‫ܯ‬
ா೐

8QDFDtGDHQODSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQDFLRQDO

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ,6
߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ/0
Ͳ ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ݄߲‫ݎ‬
݇
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ
݄

Juan León Mendoza 285

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ%3
‫ܧ‬௘
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ െ ଶ ߲‫ܧ‬
‫ܧ‬
‫ܧ‬ଶ
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ െ ௘ ߲‫ݎ‬
‫ܧ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGROD%3GLIHUHQFLDGDHQOD,6GLIHUHQFLDGD
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬െ ௘ ߲‫ݎ‬
‫ܧ‬
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ௘ ቇ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
‫ܧ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGROD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ݇
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ  ௘ ቇ ߲ܻ ൅ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
‫ܧ‬ ݄
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ݇
ቆͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ  ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ  ௘ ቇ ቇ ߲ܻ ൌ ܺ௒ ‫ כ ܻ߲ כ‬
‫ܧ‬ ݄
ܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ௛ ߲ܻ ‫כ‬
ா೐

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
݇ ܺ௒ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ቏ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬െ ఉாమ ቁ ௞
௥ ௥ ೐ ா ௛

ܺ ௒‫כ‬

߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ
ா೐ ௛

ܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ൦ ଵି௖ሺଵି௧ሻା௠ ൪ ߲ܻ ‫ כ  כ‬൐ Ͳ
ఉா మ
െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ೐ ቁ ߲ܻ




5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD%3GLIHUHQFLDGD

‫ܧ‬ଶ ܺ௒ ‫כ‬
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ െ ൦ ൪ ߲ܻ ‫ כ‬
‫ ܧ‬௘ ଵି௖ା௠ െ ቀ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬െ ఉாమ ቁ
ೖ ௥ ௥ ೐ ா

ாమ
ܺ௒ ‫כ‬ ߲‫ܧ‬
ா೐
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ െ ൦ ଵି௖ା௠ ൪ ߲ܻ ‫ כ  כ‬൏ Ͳ
ఉா మ
െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ೐ ቁ ߲ܻ




 
286 Macroeconomía

8QLQFUHPHQWRHQODWDVDGHLQWHUpVLQWHUQDFLRQDO

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ,6
߲ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬௒ ߲ܻ െ ‫ܥ‬௒ ‫ ܻ߲ݐ‬൅ ‫ܥ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ܼ݁௒ ߲ܻ ൅ ܺ௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ݁௘ ߲݁ െ ܼ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ሺܺ௘ െ ܼ݁௘ െ ܼሻ߲݁
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ߚ߲‫ܧ‬

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ/0
Ͳ ൌ ߲ܻ݇ െ ǟ߲‫ݎ‬
݇
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲ܻ
݄

'LIHUHQFLDQGRODHFXDFLyQ%3
‫ܧ‬௘
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬െ ଶ ߲‫ܧ‬
‫ܧ‬
‫ܧ‬ଶ ‫ܧ כ‬ଶ
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ௘ ߲‫ ݎ‬െ ௘ ߲‫ݎ‬
‫ܧ‬ ‫ܧ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGROD%3GLIHUHQFLDGDHQOD,6GLIHUHQFLDGD
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ௘ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬െ ௘ ߲‫ݎ‬
‫ܧ‬ ‫ܧ‬
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ‫כ‬
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ௘ ቇ ߲‫ ݎ‬൅ ௘ ߲‫ ݎ‬
‫ܧ‬ ‫ܧ‬

5HHPSOD]DQGROD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ ݇ ߚ‫ ܧ‬ଶ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ߲ܻ ൌ ቆ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ  ௘ ቇ ߲ܻ ൅ ௘ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
‫ܧ‬ ݄ ‫ܧ‬
ఉா మ
ா೐ ߲ܻ
߲ܻ ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ௛ ߲‫כ ݎ‬
ா೐

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD/0GLIHUHQFLDGD
ఉா మ
݇ ா೐
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
݄ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬െ ఉாమቁ ௞
௥ ௥ ೐ ா ௛
௞ ఉா మ
௛ ா೐ ߲‫ݎ‬
߲‫ ݎ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ௛ ߲‫כ ݎ‬
ா೐

5HHPSOD]DQGRHQOD%3GLIHUHQFLDGD
௞ ఉா మ
‫ܧ‬ଶ ‫ܧ‬ଶ ௛ ா೐
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ௘ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬െ ௘ ቎ ቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
‫ܧ‬ ‫ ͳ ܧ‬െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ ܥ‬൅ ‫ ܫ‬െ ఉாమ ቁ ௞
௥ ௥ ೐ ா ௛
Juan León Mendoza 287

ா మ ௞ ఉா మ
‫ܧ‬ଶ ா೐ ௛ ா೐
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ௘ െ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
‫ܧ‬ ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ೐ ቁ
ா ௛
ாమ ఉா మ ௞ ா మ ா మ ௞ ఉா మ
ሺͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ሻ ೐
െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ ௛ ா೐ െ ா೐ ௛
ா ா೐ ா೐
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ
ா೐ ௛
௞ ௞ ఉா మ ௞ ఉா మ ா మ
ቀͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ௛ ൅ ௛ ா೐

௛ ா ೐
ቁ ா೐
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ
ா೐ ௛
௞ ாమ
ቀͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ሺ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ ሻ ௛ቁ ா೐ ߲‫ܧ‬
߲‫ ܧ‬ൌ ቎ ఉா మ ௞
቏ ߲‫ כ ݎ‬ ൐ Ͳ
ͳ െ ܿሺͳ െ ‫ݐ‬ሻ ൅ ݉ െ ቀ‫ܥ‬௥ ൅ ‫ܫ‬௥ െ ቁ௛ ߲‫כ ݎ‬
ா೐

 
Capítulo 11

La demanda agregada en una


economía abierta

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PRGHORGHRIHUWDDJUHJDGD<DHQORVFDStWXORV\DQDOL]DUHPRVODPDQHUDHQ
TXH OD RIHUWD \ OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD GHWHUPLQDQ ORV SUHFLRV \ OD SURGXFFLyQ
GRPpVWLFD

/$'(0$1'$$*5(*$'$'(&25723/$=2

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IXQFLyQ\FXUYDGHGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDGHFRUWRSOD]RWDQWRSDUDXQUpJLPHQGH
WLSRGHFDPELRILMRFRPRIOH[LEOH
(OPRGHORGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDGHFRUWRSOD]RHVWiFRQIRUPDGRSRUODV
HFXDFLRQHVGHHTXLOLEULRHQHOPHUFDGRGHELHQHV ‫ ܵܫ‬GLQHUR ‫\ ܯܮ‬GLYLVDV ‫ ܲܤ‬
ODVTXHVHGHVDUUROODURQHQHOFDStWXOR

ܻ ൌ ‫ܥ‬ሺܻௗ ൌ ܻ ൅ ܴܶ െ –ǡ ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ܫ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ ܩ‬൅ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ‫ܵܫ‬ሺͳͳǤͳሻ
‫ܯ‬
ൌ ܻ݇ െ ݄‫ܯܮݎ‬ሺͳͳǤʹሻ
ܲ
‫ܧ‬௘ െ ‫ܧ‬
‫ ݎ‬ൌ ‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ‫ כ ܧ‬൅ ߠ ൌ  ‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ൬ ൰ ൅ ߠ‫ܲܤ‬ሺͳͳǤ͵ሻ
‫ܧ‬

/DHFXDFLyQ  PXHVWUDODVLWXDFLyQGHHTXLOLEULRHQHOPHUFDGRGHELHQHV
GRQGH OD RIHUWD R SURGXFFLyQ ܻ  HV LJXDO D OD GHPDQGD GH ELHQHV ‫ܥ‬ሺܻௗ ൌ ܻ ൅
ܴܶ െ –ǡ ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ܫ‬ሺ‫ݎ‬ሻ ൅ ‫ ܩ‬൅ ܺሺ݁ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ሻ െ ܼ݁ሺ݁ǡ ܻሻ  /D HFXDFLyQ   LQGLFD OD VLWXDFLyQ

GHHTXLOLEULRHQHOPHUFDGRGHGLQHURHQHOTXHODRIHUWDGHVDOGRVUHDOHVቀ ቁHV

LJXDODODGHPDQGDGHGLQHUR ܻ݇ െ ݄‫) ݎ‬LQDOPHQWHODVLWXDFLyQGHHTXLOLEULRGHOD
EDODQ]DGHSDJRVRPHUFDGRGHGLYLVDVHVWiUHSUHVHQWDGDSRUODHFXDFLyQ  
290 Macroeconomía

GRQGHODUHQWDELOLGDGGHODFWLYRILQDQFLHURGRPpVWLFR ‫ ݎ‬HVLJXDODODUHQWDELOLGDG
HVSHUDGDGHODFWLYRILQDQFLHURH[WHUQR ‫ כ ݎ‬൅ ‫ כ ܧ‬൅ ߠ 
(O PRGHOR GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD GH FRUWR SOD]R WDPELpQ VH SXHGH
FRQVLGHUDUFRPRXQDGHPDQGDGHPHGLDQRSOD]RGHELGRDTXHWDQWRHQHOFRUWR
FRPRHQHOPHGLDQRSOD]RHOWLSRGHFDPELRHIHFWLYRRVSRW ‫ ܧ‬QRHVLJXDODOWLSR
GH FDPELR HVSHUDGR ‫ ܧ‬௘  GH PRGR TXH OD WDVD GH GHSUHFLDFLyQ HVSHUDGD GH OD
PRQHGDQDFLRQDO ‫ כ ܧ‬HVGLIHUHQWHGHFHUR

/DGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDGHFRUWRSOD]RFRQWLSRGHFDPELRILMR

(QHOFDStWXORDQWHULRUYLPRVTXHHQXQDHFRQRPtDFRQSHUIHFWDPRYLOLGDGGH
FDSLWDO \ WLSR GH FDPELR ILMR OD YDULDEOH GH OD RIHUWD PRQHWDULD QR WHQtD HIHFWRV
VREUHHOQLYHOGHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD\ODSURGXFFLyQ/D‫ܯܮ‬HUDHQGyJHQD
8Q LQFUHPHQWR HQ VDOGRV UHDOHV SRU HO DXPHQWR HQ OD PDVD PRQHWDULD
QRPLQDORODFDtGDHQORVSUHFLRV JHQHUDXQDFDtGDHQODWDVDGHLQWHUpV/DPHQRU
WDVD GH LQWHUpV RFDVLRQD GpILFLW HQ OD FXHQWD ILQDQFLHUD \ H[FHVR GH GHPDQGD GH
PRQHGDH[WUDQMHUD$QWHHOORHO%DQFR&HQWUDODOVDOLUDYHQGHUGLYLVDV SDUDHYLWDU
XQDXPHQWRHQHOWLSRGHFDPELR UHGXFHODFDQWLGDGGHGLQHUR\HOHYDODWDVDGH
LQWHUpVGHPDQHUDTXHDOILQDOGHODMXVWHODWDVDGHLQWHUpV\ODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGD
VHPDQWLHQHQVLQYDULDFLyQDOJXQD
3RU HVWH KHFKR HQ HO SURFHVR GH OD GHULYDFLyQ GH OD FXUYD GH GHPDQGD
DJUHJDGD FRQ WLSR GH FDPELR ILMR VH SXHGH LJQRUDU HO HIHFWR GHO FDPELR GHO
SUHFLR VREUH OD ‫ \ ܯܮ‬SRU WDQWR VREUH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD /RV FDPELRV HQ HO
SUHFLRGRPpVWLFRYDQDWHQHULQIOXHQFLDVREUHODGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDYtDHOWLSRGH
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LQWHUpVGRPpVWLFD ‫ ݎ‬GHODHFXDFLyQGHODEDODQ]DGHSDJRV  HQODHFXDFLyQ
‫  ܵܫ‬
(IHFWXDQGR HO UHHPSOD]R FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH OD IXQFLyQ GH GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD
GH FRUWR SOD]R FRQ WLSR GH FDPELR ILMR LQGLFD TXH OD SURGXFFLyQ GHPDQGDGD
GHSHQGHGHOSUHFLRGRPpVWLFR ܲ GHOJDVWRHQWUDVIHUHQFLDGHO*RELHUQR ܴܶ GHO
JDVWR GH JRELHUQR ‫  ܩ‬GHO  WLSR GH FDPELR QRPLQDO ‫  ܧ‬GHO SUHFLR LQWHUQDFLRQDO
ܲ ‫ כ‬GHODSURGXFFLyQLQWHUQDFLRQDO ܻ ‫ כ‬GHODWDVDGHLQWHUpVLQWHUQDFLRQDO ‫ כ ݎ‬GHO
WLSRGHFDPELRHVSHUDGR ‫ ܧ‬௘ \GHODSULPDSRUULHVJRSDtV ߠ 

ܻ ൌ ݂ሺܲǡ ܴܶǡ ‫ܩ‬ǡ ‫ܧ‬ǡ ܲ ‫ כ‬ǡ ܻ ‫ כ‬ǡ ‫ כ ݎ‬ǡ ‫ ܧ‬௘ ǡ ߠ 

/D OyJLFD GH OD GHULYDFLyQ GHO PRGHOR IXQFLRQDO GH OD GHPDQGD DJUHJDGD
WDPELpQVHSXHGHPRVWUDUHQWpUPLQRVGHXQDFXUYDGHGHPDQGDHQHOSODQRGHO
Juan León Mendoza 291

QLYHO GH SUHFLRV ܲ  \ OD SURGXFFLyQ ܻ  WDO FRPR TXHGD H[SXHVWR HQ OD SDUWH
LQIHULRUGHOJUiILFR

*UiILFR'HULYDFLyQGHODFXUYDGHGHPDQGDDJUHJDGDGHFRUWRSOD]RFRQ
WLSRGHFDPELRILMR


no r po CF po BP 0 
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P po e no X n Z po D no Y no LD no r no CF no BP no d S ! d D o BCRcd o RIN no
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129 En el apéndice, véase la derivación algebraica correspondiente.
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131 En el apéndice, véase la derivación algebraica correspondiente.
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En el apéndice, véase la derivación algebraica correspondiente. A su vez, la pendiente negativa de la
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