You are on page 1of 9

Ontario

Voter Intention Numbers
23rd January 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on a With 20 years of political experience in all
survey conducted between January 4th to three levels of government, President and CEO
6th, 2018 among a sample of 2375 adults, 18 Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
years of age or older, living in Ontario. The international public affairs.
survey was conducted using automated
telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Respondents were interviews on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a national telephone directory compiled by a Liberal majority government in the 2015
Mainstreet Research from various sources federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
and random digit dialing. The part of the predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
survey that dialed from the directory was elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
conducted as a stratified dial of the following special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
regions; Toronto (416 area), Greater Toronto a member of the World Association for Public
Area (905 area), Southwestern Ontario, Opinion Research and meets international and
South Central Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Canadian publication standards.
Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional CONTACT INFORMATION
question of what region of the province they In Ottawa:
reside in. Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third In Toronto:
party. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
2.01 % and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this twitter.com/MainStResearch
report) facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BROWN PCs WITH A WIDE LEAD OVER WYNNE LIBERALS

23 January 2018 (Toronto, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown has a twelve
point lead over Kathleen Wynne and the governing Liberals, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.

The poll was part of Mainstreet Research’s UltraPoll and surveyed 2375 residents of Ontario aged 18
and over between January 3rd and 4th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.01% and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“Kathleen Wynne has had a good stretch in the latter half of 2017 and early 2018. This has translated
to increasing support from our last reported numbers in Ontario,” said Quito Maggi, President and
CEO of Mainstreet Research.

“However, the lead enjoyed by Patrick Brown and the PCs continues to be hard to overcome”.

The Progressive Conservatives lead in every region over the Liberals, except in the 416 area where
the Liberals lead by nearly three points.

The PCs led by Brown enjoy leads of 11 points in the 905 belt, 8 points in Eastern Ontario, 21 points in
South Central Ontario, 24 points in Southwestern Ontario and 25 points in the North.

“These regional numbers, combined with a competitive almost 37% support in the 416, continues to
point to a possible PC majority government if the election were held today,” Added Maggi.

Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP are struggling to find oxygen in what is becoming a two way
race. They do have some highlights in the North (25%) and South Central Ontario (22%) but are not
above 20% in any other region or group.

“Unless Andrea Horwath can find a way get people’s attention, we will be looking at a two way battle
between the Liberals and Conservatives in June,” concluded Maggi.

The Green Party under Mike Schreiner are enjoying double digit support among those under 35 years
of age (11%) and in Eastern Ontario (10%) but time will tell if they are able to mobilize their support
substantially to hold these numbers through to election day.

When asked which party leader they found more truthful, 37.6% of Ontarians said they found Patrick
Brown the most truthful, while Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath were virtually tied at 26.2% and
25% respectively. 10.2% of Ontarians find Mike Schreiner most truthful among all party leaders.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)
And if you had to choose, which party leader
do you think is more truthful?
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

(decided and leaning voters)

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen
Wynne What is your age group?
Progressive Conservative Party of 18 to 34 years of age
Ontario led by Patrick Brown 35 to 49 years of age
New Democratic Party of Ontario led 50 to 64 years of age
by Andrea Horwath 65 years of age or older
Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Schreiner
Undecided

And which party are you leaning
towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen
Wynne
Progressive Conservative Party of
Ontario led by Patrick Brown
New Democratic Party of Ontario led
by Andrea Horwath
Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Schreiner
Undecided

And if you had to choose, which party
leader do you think is more truthful?
Kathleen Wynne of the Ontario Liberal
Party
Patrick Brown of the Progressive
Conservative Party of Ontario
Andrea Horwath of the New Democratic
Party of Ontario
Mike Schreiner of the Green Party of
Ontario
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 3rd, 2018
and January 6th, 2018, among a sample of 2375 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario.
The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Ontario.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed from
the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of six regions in Ontario: the city of Toronto (the
416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (the 905 region), Southwestern Ontario, South Central
Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit dials, respondents
were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. In both cases,
respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number.
The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making
contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across
the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset
of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender,
and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.01% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsamples.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 2.82%, Females: +/- 2.87%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 5.3%, 35-49 age group: +/- 4.62%, 50-64 age group: +/- 3.71%, 65+ age group:
+/- 3.3%, Toronto: +/- 4.86%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 4.26%, Southwestern Ontario: +/- 5.35%,
South Central Ontario: +/- 4.68%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 5.13%, Northern Ontario: +/- 5.64%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.