You are on page 1of 5

January 22nd 2018; Based on the recent polls by Mainstreet, Campaign and Forum www.tooclosetocall.

ca

OLP PC NDP Green
% 30.0 40.4 21.6 6.6
seats 43 59 22 0
chances of winning* 11.1% 87.4% 0.0% 0.0%
chances of a majority 0.3% 36.3% 0.0% 0.0% Probability to win the riding

OLP PC NDP Green OLP PC NDP Green
Ajax 44.5% 36.4% 14.6% 4.5% 83.48% 16.52% 0.00% 0.00%
Algoma—Manitoulin 10.3% 33.1% 52.4% 4.2% 0.00% 3.14% 96.86% 0.00%
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 39.6% 46.3% 9.0% 5.1% 23.12% 76.88% 0.00% 0.00%
Barrie—Innisfil 28.9% 48.8% 14.8% 7.5% 1.50% 98.50% 0.00% 0.00%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 30.0% 48.5% 12.8% 8.6% 1.97% 98.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Bay of Quinte 25.5% 52.6% 15.7% 6.3% 0.40% 99.60% 0.00% 0.00%
Beaches—East York 34.7% 19.0% 38.7% 7.6% 32.07% 0.02% 67.91% 0.00%
Brampton Centre 31.8% 34.1% 26.5% 7.7% 34.82% 57.02% 8.16% 0.00%
Brampton East 25.0% 23.2% 48.0% 3.7% 0.12% 0.09% 99.79% 0.00%
Brampton North 33.2% 32.9% 28.6% 5.2% 44.50% 42.39% 13.11% 0.00%
Brampton South 38.9% 35.7% 20.2% 5.1% 66.28% 33.66% 0.06% 0.00%
Brampton West 39.8% 31.6% 24.2% 4.3% 84.18% 14.86% 0.96% 0.00%
Brantford—Brant 30.7% 38.7% 24.4% 6.2% 14.62% 83.31% 2.07% 0.00%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 18.6% 57.3% 13.7% 10.3% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Burlington 36.6% 45.0% 12.3% 6.0% 17.24% 82.76% 0.00% 0.00%
Cambridge 28.6% 44.7% 18.7% 8.0% 3.89% 95.97% 0.14% 0.00%
Carleton 22.3% 59.4% 10.7% 7.6% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Chatham-Kent—Leamington 13.6% 49.1% 30.0% 7.4% 0.00% 97.21% 2.79% 0.00%
Davenport 40.1% 12.7% 40.0% 7.2% 53.35% 0.00% 46.65% 0.00%
Don Valley East 53.9% 30.0% 10.6% 5.6% 99.89% 0.11% 0.00% 0.00%
Don Valley North 47.2% 37.8% 9.4% 5.6% 87.46% 12.54% 0.00% 0.00%
Don Valley West 51.5% 38.0% 5.1% 5.4% 94.95% 5.05% 0.00% 0.00%
Dufferin—Caledon 25.3% 47.3% 9.6% 17.7% 0.36% 99.64% 0.00% 0.00%
Durham 28.3% 39.9% 26.4% 5.4% 5.44% 91.31% 3.25% 0.00%
Eglinton—Lawrence 49.8% 39.3% 5.6% 5.3% 89.87% 10.13% 0.00% 0.00%
Elgin—Middlesex—London 9.7% 59.9% 23.4% 7.1% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Essex 3.8% 33.4% 57.3% 5.6% 0.00% 0.79% 99.21% 0.00%
Etobicoke Centre 45.4% 39.3% 10.4% 4.9% 77.54% 22.46% 0.00% 0.00%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 42.8% 39.7% 11.2% 6.4% 65.95% 34.05% 0.00% 0.00%
Etobicoke North 41.4% 28.4% 25.6% 4.6% 94.39% 3.94% 1.67% 0.00%
Flamborough—Glanbrook 28.6% 42.7% 21.7% 7.0% 4.07% 95.56% 0.37% 0.00%
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 43.1% 40.5% 11.1% 5.3% 62.54% 37.46% 0.00% 0.00%
Guelph 29.5% 32.6% 16.9% 21.1% 33.02% 64.83% 0.26% 1.89%
Haldimand—Norfolk 13.9% 59.5% 19.8% 6.8% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 26.5% 49.8% 17.8% 6.0% 0.51% 99.49% 0.00% 0.00%
Hamilton Centre 14.3% 19.4% 54.7% 11.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 22.9% 25.0% 46.0% 6.1% 0.36% 0.45% 99.19% 0.00%
Hamilton Mountain 20.8% 24.2% 48.5% 6.5% 0.04% 0.14% 99.82% 0.00%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 36.3% 32.5% 23.9% 7.4% 66.78% 30.08% 3.14% 0.00%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington 18.3% 53.1% 21.6% 7.0% 0.01% 99.98% 0.01% 0.00%
Humber River—Black Creek 36.6% 18.3% 41.4% 3.7% 28.35% 0.00% 71.65% 0.00%
Huron—Bruce 21.4% 52.6% 20.3% 5.7% 0.04% 99.92% 0.04% 0.00%
Kanata—Carleton 27.4% 51.7% 12.2% 8.7% 0.18% 99.82% 0.00% 0.00%
Kenora—Rainy River 0.2% 44.8% 51.2% 3.8% 0.00% 27.84% 72.16% 0.00%
Kiiwetinoong 4.1% 27.4% 63.8% 4.7% 0.00% 0.02% 99.98% 0.00%
Kingston and the Islands 28.5% 34.3% 28.4% 8.7% 20.71% 62.15% 17.14% 0.00%
King—Vaughan 44.8% 40.5% 10.1% 4.6% 69.89% 30.11% 0.00% 0.00%
Kitchener Centre 33.0% 34.8% 23.8% 8.4% 40.77% 56.50% 2.73% 0.00%
Kitchener—Conestoga 28.1% 45.6% 17.8% 8.4% 2.48% 97.46% 0.06% 0.00%
Kitchener South—Hespeler 29.7% 41.4% 20.5% 8.4% 7.55% 92.25% 0.20% 0.00%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 10.1% 59.0% 24.0% 6.9% 0.00% 99.99% 0.01% 0.00%
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 15.0% 60.1% 16.7% 8.2% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
7.6% 70.1% 16.1% 6.3% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
London—Fanshawe 10.0% 35.3% 48.3% 6.4% 0.00% 9.07% 90.93% 0.00%
London North Centre 26.0% 38.9% 27.6% 7.6% 6.04% 83.96% 10.00% 0.00%
London West 13.6% 42.2% 37.9% 6.3% 0.00% 67.18% 32.82% 0.00%
Markham—Stouffville 42.0% 42.1% 10.6% 5.3% 51.26% 48.74% 0.00% 0.00%
Markham—Thornhill 44.6% 42.8% 8.6% 3.9% 59.50% 40.50% 0.00% 0.00%
Markham—Unionville 37.6% 48.6% 8.3% 5.4% 11.14% 88.86% 0.00% 0.00%
Milton 36.4% 45.7% 12.3% 5.5% 14.73% 85.27% 0.00% 0.00%
Mississauga Centre 45.1% 35.7% 14.2% 5.0% 87.47% 12.53% 0.00% 0.00%
Mississauga East—Cooksville 43.8% 37.4% 13.1% 5.7% 78.01% 21.99% 0.00% 0.00%
Mississauga—Erin Mills 43.2% 38.9% 13.5% 4.4% 70.28% 29.72% 0.00% 0.00%
Mississauga—Lakeshore 43.7% 42.3% 8.8% 5.2% 58.11% 41.89% 0.00% 0.00%
Mississauga—Malton 41.6% 31.3% 22.4% 4.8% 90.08% 9.68% 0.24% 0.00%
Mississauga—Streetsville 44.3% 38.3% 11.6% 5.9% 76.72% 23.28% 0.00% 0.00%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 16.1% 23.3% 58.4% 2.3% 0.00% 0.02% 99.98% 0.00%
Nepean 30.6% 50.2% 11.9% 7.3% 1.17% 98.83% 0.00% 0.00%
Newmarket—Aurora 38.5% 45.3% 10.5% 5.7% 22.32% 77.68% 0.00% 0.00%
Niagara Centre 12.8% 33.2% 47.8% 6.2% 0.00% 5.01% 94.99% 0.00%
Niagara Falls 6.5% 39.9% 48.0% 5.6% 0.00% 19.40% 80.60% 0.00%
Niagara West 17.9% 55.9% 18.1% 8.2% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nickel Belt 7.4% 27.3% 60.8% 4.5% 0.00% 0.08% 99.92% 0.00%
Nipissing 18.5% 52.2% 23.7% 5.6% 0.00% 99.97% 0.03% 0.00%
Northumberland—Peterborough South 32.0% 45.5% 16.3% 6.1% 6.28% 93.72% 0.00% 0.00%
Oakville 42.2% 46.1% 6.0% 5.7% 36.17% 63.83% 0.00% 0.00%
Oakville North—Burlington 39.5% 45.4% 9.8% 5.3% 26.36% 73.64% 0.00% 0.00%
Orléans 46.0% 41.0% 7.5% 5.6% 72.97% 27.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Oshawa 14.6% 38.5% 41.7% 5.3% 0.00% 35.91% 64.09% 0.00%
Ottawa Centre 44.7% 26.5% 19.0% 9.9% 98.70% 1.27% 0.03% 0.00%
Ottawa South 43.1% 39.8% 10.8% 6.3% 66.28% 33.72% 0.00% 0.00%
Ottawa—Vanier 47.5% 31.0% 11.6% 9.8% 97.77% 2.23% 0.00% 0.00%
Ottawa West—Nepean 37.9% 41.1% 12.8% 8.2% 35.55% 64.45% 0.00% 0.00%
Oxford 15.8% 54.7% 22.6% 6.9% 0.00% 99.98% 0.02% 0.00%
Parkdale—High Park 34.4% 18.3% 39.8% 7.5% 28.05% 0.00% 71.95% 0.00%
Parry Sound—Muskoka 17.8% 50.6% 10.8% 20.8% 0.00% 99.99% 0.00% 0.01%
Perth—Wellington 27.6% 48.9% 16.5% 7.1% 0.85% 99.14% 0.01% 0.00%
Peterborough—Kawartha 36.3% 41.3% 16.2% 6.2% 29.37% 70.63% 0.00% 0.00%
Pickering—Uxbridge 40.6% 40.4% 13.2% 5.8% 51.60% 48.40% 0.00% 0.00%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 6.2% 75.9% 13.2% 4.6% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Richmond Hill 41.7% 43.7% 9.7% 4.9% 42.42% 57.58% 0.00% 0.00%
Sarnia—Lambton 7.4% 53.0% 32.9% 6.7% 0.00% 97.42% 2.58% 0.00%
Sault Ste. Marie 44.4% 28.0% 23.2% 4.4% 94.03% 5.03% 0.94% 0.00%
Scarborough—Agincourt 44.8% 40.1% 10.4% 4.7% 72.79% 27.21% 0.00% 0.00%
Scarborough Centre 44.8% 28.2% 21.7% 5.2% 98.31% 1.55% 0.14% 0.00%
Scarborough—Guildwood 45.6% 33.5% 15.9% 5.0% 93.60% 6.39% 0.01% 0.00%
Scarborough North 34.9% 36.1% 25.4% 3.6% 42.33% 55.02% 2.65% 0.00%
Scarborough—Rouge Park 42.7% 29.8% 23.1% 4.3% 95.35% 4.20% 0.45% 0.00%
Scarborough Southwest 44.7% 26.3% 22.8% 6.3% 99.07% 0.69% 0.24% 0.00%
Simcoe—Grey 21.7% 56.7% 12.1% 9.5% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Simcoe North 23.5% 53.1% 13.9% 9.6% 0.03% 99.97% 0.00% 0.00%
Spadina—Fort York 43.2% 22.9% 26.2% 7.7% 98.25% 0.26% 1.49% 0.00%
St. Catharines 34.3% 36.0% 23.5% 6.2% 40.93% 56.59% 2.48% 0.00%
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 10.3% 65.9% 19.7% 4.0% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sudbury 25.7% 29.4% 40.3% 4.6% 5.64% 10.61% 83.75% 0.00%
Thornhill 37.4% 52.2% 6.5% 3.9% 7.20% 92.80% 0.00% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 39.7% 29.3% 26.5% 4.6% 80.42% 12.95% 6.63% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Superior North 43.3% 23.5% 28.4% 4.9% 91.79% 1.92% 6.29% 0.00%
Timiskaming—Cochrane 9.0% 33.2% 55.0% 2.8% 0.00% 1.78% 98.22% 0.00%
Timmins 6.0% 46.8% 44.3% 2.9% 0.00% 60.41% 39.59% 0.00%
Toronto Centre 56.1% 17.9% 18.9% 7.1% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Toronto—Danforth 32.5% 15.8% 44.1% 7.5% 8.47% 0.00% 91.53% 0.00%
Toronto—St. Paul's 54.1% 29.5% 8.9% 7.5% 99.92% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
University—Rosedale 43.1% 23.8% 23.6% 9.5% 99.07% 0.41% 0.52% 0.00%
Vaughan—Woodbridge 51.0% 35.7% 9.5% 3.8% 96.67% 3.33% 0.00% 0.00%
Waterloo 23.9% 36.3% 32.8% 7.0% 1.92% 65.16% 32.92% 0.00%
Wellington—Halton Hills 23.5% 55.5% 11.6% 9.4% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Whitby 27.4% 48.1% 18.9% 5.7% 0.79% 99.21% 0.00% 0.00%
Willowdale 47.4% 37.0% 9.5% 6.1% 89.76% 10.24% 0.00% 0.00%
Windsor—Tecumseh 4.8% 27.3% 60.0% 7.9% 0.00% 0.07% 99.93% 0.00%
Windsor West 28.8% 26.9% 38.9% 5.3% 11.70% 6.11% 82.19% 0.00%
York Centre 38.6% 38.5% 17.5% 5.5% 50.94% 49.05% 0.01% 0.00%
York South—Weston 42.2% 16.4% 36.9% 4.5% 75.28% 0.00% 24.72% 0.00%
York—Simcoe 28.9% 45.6% 17.5% 8.0% 3.58% 96.41% 0.01% 0.00%

*Winning=winning the most seats, excluding ties