You are on page 1of 32

EXEMPLU - CALCUL CFD si criterii

investitie 10000
amortizata liniar in 5 ani
durata de exploatare 7 ani
pret vanzare investitie in an 300
CV/CA 60%
CF 1500
impozit 16%
durata ACN 9 zile
k 10%
(u.m. = mii lei)
anul 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
CA 500 10000 27000 36000 31000 24000 13000
-CV expl(60%) 300 6000 16200 21600 18600 14400 7800
-CF (1500) 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500
=EBE = -1300 2500 9300 12900 10900 8100 3700
EBITDA
-amortizare 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
=rezultat expl -3300 500 7300 10900 8900 8100 3700
= EBIT
=rezultat -3300 500 7300 10900 8900 8100 3700
impozabil
-impozit (16%) -528 80 1168 1744 1424 1296 592
=rezultat net -2772 420 6132 9156 7476 6804 3108
+amortizare 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 0 0
-DImob. 10000
-DACN(9zile) 12.5 237.5 425 225 -125 -175 -275
=CFD -10000 -784.5 2182.5 7707 10931 9601 6979 3383
CF dezinvestire (VR) 252
= CFD -10000 -784.5 2182.5 7707 10931 9601 6979 3635
CFD actualizat -10000 -713.182 1803.719 5790.383 7466.02 5961.466 3939.464 1865.33
CFD act cumulat -713.182 1090.537 6880.92 14346.94 20308.41 24247.87 26113.2

VAN 16113 mii lei
RIR 37%
TR 3.4178 ani

IP 2.6113

EXEMPLU - criterii selectie
k 10%
A B C D E F
0 -500 -1200 -300 -800 -600 -1000
1 120 600 -200 480 100 300
2 230 500 -350 400 220 300
3 360 450 760 360 340 300
4 160 50 400 200 310 300
5 150 380 -150 100 300
6 180 -200 50 300
VAN 178.93 325.66 309.08 167.99 230.22 306.58
clasament 5 1 2 6 4 3
RIR 24.29% 22.39% 24.56% 25.48% 22.63% 19.91%
clasament 3 5 2 1 4 6
IP 1.36 1.27 2.03 1.21 1.38 1.31
clasament 3 5 1 6 2 4

EXEMPLU - portofolii de investitii (neconcurente)
a) buget < 1500
portofoliul structura investitie VAN IP
1 A+C+E 1400 718.23 1.51
2 A+F 1500 485.51 1.32
3 B+C 1500 634.74 1.42
4 C+D 1100 477.07 1.43
5 C+E 900 539.30 1.60
6 C+F 1300 615.66 1.47
7 D+E 1400 398.21 1.28

b) buget < 1200
portofoliul structura investitie VAN IP
1 C+D 1100 477.07 1.43
2 C+E 900 539.30 1.60

.15 min ch.60608 CAE 1225511 Varianta 2 an 0 anii 1.investitie 2050000 venituri din vanzare 92500 ch..operationale 844000 844000 844000 venituri suplimentare 100000 100000 100000 amortizare 60% 120000 120000 amortizare 40% 40000 40000 40000 amortizare ch.10 anii 11...15 ch..operationale 1181000 1181000 amortizare 40000 economie fiscala 10000 costuri nete 400000 1171000 1181000 cost total actualizat 9321334 a(15) 7...EXEMPLU .5 anii 6...10 anii 11.investitie 400000 max ch...10 anii 11..cost annual echivalent VNC 70000 pret vanzare 100000 proiecte 1 k 10% 2 Varianta 1 3 an 0 anii 1.personal 10000 economie fiscala 27200 25600 6400 costuri nete 1957500 716800 718400 737600 cost total actualizat 8113064 a(20) 8.operationale 985000 985000 amortizare 60000 economie fiscala 9600 costuri nete 600000 975400 985000 cost total actualizat 8033000 a(15) 7.20 ch.513564 CAE 952957 .60608 CAE 1056129 Varianta 3 an 0 anii 1..investitie 600000 ch..

225.033.60608 1.064 8.056.000 7.60608 1.957 1.511 .511 8.VA(costuri) a(n) CAE 9.957 952.321.513564 952.334 7.225.113.129 8.

904266 .2 variatie 20% a fiecarei variabile cota de piata 0.2 prag financiar 281.2 prag contabil 225 mil lei 0.96 22.43 152.39 175.12 pret unitar 3000 3750 4500 CVM 3600 3000 2400 CF (mil.06 Cfgestiune = CFD 40.69 CFD act cum 36.$ pozitie relativa fata de prag 66.1 0.144567 investitia 150 durata de viata 10 ani amortizata liniar in 10 ani Calcule indicatori .20 27.EXEMPLU .buc) 0.55 69.2 40.07494 (mil lei) anuitate = a(10) 6.2 40.90 ani impozit 4.8 1 1.08 4.2 40.67% prag rentabilitate financiar 281mil.EURO) 36 30 24 cota de impozitare 16% rata de actualizare 10% a(n) 6.77 99.2 40.14457 prag rentabilitate contabil 225mil.mediu cert an 0 anii 1-10 investitia 150 CA 375 CV 300 CF 30 VAN 97.2 40.02 mil lei 0.01 mil lei amortizare 15 RIR 23.2 CFD act 36.57% profit brut 30 TR actualizat 4.97 127.mediu incert Scenarii posibile pesimist normal optimist piata (mil.44% anii 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 CFD -150 40.08 0.46 24.55 33.8 IP 1.65 profit net 25.$ pozitie relativa fata de prag 33.22 30.

96 15.8 -37.70 -15.67 97.59 174.4 7.01 174.02 750 600 6 150.60 1.00 236.09 medie 293.15947 .12 deviatie standard 0.12 4500 2400 24.4 7.01 19.10 matricea VAN coeficient modul pesimist normal optimist elasticitate elasticitate rank piata 19.990324 4 cota de piata 19.10 97.01 174.8 VAN 97.analiza de sensibilitate scenariul piata cota de piata pret unitar normal pes opt pes opt pes CA 375 300 450 300 450 300 CV 300 240 360 240 360 300 CF 30 30 30 30 30 30 amortizare 15 15 15 15 15 15 profit brut 30 15 45 15 45 -45 impozit 4.20 optimist 25% 1.26 medie 1 0.95 19.01 127.2 2.59 97.2 0.43 19.15 sigma 926.59613 5 tehnica scenariilor scenariu probabilit piata cota de pipret unitar CVM CF CFD pesimist 25% 0.2 0.01 484.8 0.990324 3 pret unitar -290.08 3000 3600 36 -60.01 406.8 CFgestiune 40.1 3750 3000 30 72.2 0.04 97.2 0.8 2.2 0.19 CV 3.8 12.6 37.43 3.6 37.2 0.8 27.2 12.43 -290.6 52.99 3.2 -7.2 profit net 25.12 19.1 3750 3000 30.99 3.6 52.95162 1 CVM -212.8 -22.00 40.9613 2 CF 66.59 97.2 2.10 de baza 50% 1 0.73 coeficient de variatie 0.2 27.98 -1.43 3.59 174.

58 2.5%) limita superioara 2108 limita inferioara -1522 99% interval de incredere z=2.96 1.95% interval de incredere z=1.575829 = NORMSINV(99.42% = 1-NORMSDIST(-PN mediu/sigma PN) .959964 = NORMSINV(97.5%) limita superioara 2679 limita inferioara -2093 probabilitatea ca PN>0 62.

46 231.51 247.2 40.2 40.01 .05 15.2 20.75 17.rei variabile mil buc mil buc 7 8 9 10 40.50 195.71 214.63 18.2 40.

70 66.69 25% 50% 293.2 90.16 30.01 97.98 VAN VAN p -519.69 1301.pret unitar CVM CF opt pes opt pes opt 450 375 375 375 375 300 360 240 300 300 30 30 30 36 24 15 15 15 15 15 105 -30 90 24 36 16.67 406.15 0% 926.8 -4.4 3.6 20.6 35.2 75.12 -212.24 484.16 30% 20% 10% 0% -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 .76 88.8 14.26 25% 60% 97.04 127.16 45.01 50% 1301.24 103.19 40% 3.2 -10.84 5.26 -519.15 293.2 -25.

20% 10% 0% -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 .

1500 .

1500 .

12 pret unitar 3000 3750 4500 CVM 3600 3000 2400 CF (mil.8 1 1.Simularea Monte Carlo pesimist normal optimist piata (mil.93% Distributia de probabilitate a VAN propabilitati 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 VAN .buc) 0.2 cota de piata 0.1 0.1 a(n) 6.EURO) 36 30 24 cota de impozitare 0.14 investitia 150 durata de viata 10 ani numar simulari 250 E(VAN) = 134.16 rata de actualizare 0.08 0.9 σ(VAN) = 210.559 73.3 probabilitatea ca VAN>0 CV(VAN)= 1.

95996 limita superioara 547 limita inferioara -277 99% interval de incredere z=2.86 sigma 210.57583 limita superioara 677 limita inferioara -407 probabilitatea ca PN>0 73.96 1.medie 134.93% .55949 95% interval de incredere z=1.58 2.32 CV 1.

33 medie stdev max 1018.36 2625.0% 1.33 -147.859 0.7322 51.9593 58.3% 3.32 30.101 3797.4634 -42.062 2313.6947 3 0.2% 4.1198 13 0.8928 9 0.091 3403.7 27.095 3569.5587 -11.784 0.101 3805.5435 301.41 0.74 29.19 0.31 2461 24.954 0.83 2577.8558 8 0.4 3287.6246 13.11 4119.53 1.112 4187.8374 71.17 3349.8877 17.801 17.2013 6.078 2940.2903 109.74 33.5488 16 0.83 0.4 3044.169 0.56 1850.27 0.38 2722.07 0.827 0.12 2480.02 VAN -171.095 3576.5078 -48.5085 1.27 2352.46 0.67 3483.3866 5 0.03 0.4974 61.17 2120.59665 6 0.53 1.6615 112.553 32.55 4079.93 32.0656 2 0.088 3281.117 4383.4% 2.7264 15 0.9641 .74 34.071 2650.1 24.136 5099.908 0.91 3295.104 3905.58 1.707 0. stdev calculate simulare piata cota dpret unitCVM CF CFD VAN 1 0.0898 77.17 3037.73 30.80 1.20 0.952 0.68 1.257 207.083 3111 2488.12518 7 0.116 4354.7028 -22.096 0.06 -123 -99 -74 -50 pret 3750 750 frecventa 1 6 10 23 31 42 CVM 3000 600 probabilitate 0.0647 73.563 627.7746 20.6% 5.6144 33.2731 cota 0.24 0.1617 -44.1363 11 0.7905 17 0. min -171.35 3124.69 204.2 pas 24.0317 52.6105 16.09 3506.3 28.77 24.44 28.117 0.8752 57.4802 4 0.05 piata 1 0.96553 12 0.015 0.8 2861.099 0.083 3100.47 35.17 2941.90048 10 0.4174 37.09 26.086 3221.013 0.82 0.1 0.082 3076.098 3677.4432 42.8274 -108.2509 22.7902 291.14 0.5222 13.3144 140.52 32.36 0.875 0.009 -70.79 1.981 0.675 21 0.161 0.64 40.5% CF 30 6 preluate din calcule tehnica scenariilor sau recalculate cf istoriei = rand() simulate cf medie.72 1.28 31.88 14 0.69 1.5668 18 0.7964 126.2428 47.96 1.13 2855.227 26.617 0.13 21.85 18.9642 230.22 23.40 0.3773 42.7429 20 0.64697 -139.11 4109.041 0.46 25.32 0.18 0.049 19 0.

4897 -60.066 0.59 1.6497 351.06 0.31 0.73 1.8738 11.09 3370.0517 46 0.1177 -1.54632 43 0.15 0.7727 .3848 32 0.83 2938.7685 55 0.64 23.46 0.7124 223.105 3948.8677 6.977 0.64421 31 0.0723 25.276 0.31 22.61 33.51 24.62 3340.3141 97.8 0.11 0.3458 42.7767 53 0.979 0.099 3706.0209 40.215 0.128 4786.939 0.08 2999.677 33 0.111 4175.67 28.1253 280.23 3034.113 0.61 3002.105 3921.09 3384 2707.56 35.6354 24.19 0.48 3607.94 0.12 0.0335 25 0.64 2273.82 2659.6864 13.076 2841.1 3752.86 1.01 0.31 0.899 0.998 14.77 20.988 0.58 2385.9672 23 0.8251 17.5032 166.089 3339.828 0.7361 63.102 0.27 23.25 26.71275 47 0.63 1.43 2931.11 4131.095 3579.69 1.07 2608.07422 -112.4368 0.291 101.15 0.38 3829.188 0.106 3990.38 0.48 0.06 2671.196 0.54 29.09 30.153847 54 0.79 33.098 3672.2093 31.107 3998.4651 36 0.91 3159.17 2820.064 0.0725 145.23 27.50 1 0.902 0.4 2863.22 0.0507 58.7958 41 0.47 31.12 4509.07 33.09 3136.5 33.149 45 0.58 30.6275 302.0409 29 0.3 3461.75 2399.86 26.37 29.795 0.84 1.758 0.115 4327.318 226.117 4384.1238 330.125 0.652 241.121 4556.63 1.22 2287.405 61.0293 -63.098 3664.169 0.112 4217 3373.8 23.4296 153.71 1.6184 70.25 3645 36.154 0.09 342.44 3507.9322 50 0.52 28.3154 36.0571 -162.3179 60.7169 -84.52 1.5114 -66.73 3331.203 0.80716 51 0.9782 39 0.3471 -2.696 0.051 1918.38 35.089 3324.9257 40 0.14 2482.8861 80.84 34.42 2663.111 4164.1137 34 0.71 15.490383 52 0.6438 78.012 0.59172 35 0.5913 49.39 1534.6537 38.6352 33.9659 -2.0758 81.9037 168.3687 48.7331 10.58 36.52 3198.12 26.60 1.8527 14.15 2696.75425 48 0.29 0.83 1.41 0.13 31.78 1.762 0.9247 51.3341 85.73969 38 0.45 0.1108 -81.2456 -44.29 0.046 0.111 0.92 1.7018 28 0.71 2965.1186 30 0.9612 25.9563 9.079 2960.80 1.512 0.4089 56 0.0367 24 0.79 0.48 3564.234 472.84 2816.99105 57 0.8816 39.38 22.955 0.34 3305.7238 49 0.89 0.71 1.1 38.887 0.38 0.84 1.094 3520.083 3103.54 26.8775 211.8 2368.64 26 0.8897 44 0.93 28.5986 23.888 0.9087 76.08 2981.87 31.3826 36.16 0.46 2086.7288 27 0.1336 53.575804 42 0.5598 74.076 2859.77 3588.7793 370.0756 73.1667 30.29 0.089 3329.78787 37 0.26 29.119 4455.45 84.0829 40.101 3793.7125 24.58 3192.61 35.1134 108.053 0.9881 51.482 6.12 4485.81 31.094 3526.

3724 81 0.2216 201.46 30.59 31.055 2056.07 1644.411 872.105 3927.4486 -1.548 0.625 0.3311 146.68 1.8252 73 0.472 0.65 20.063 2344.072 2688 2150.86 24.047 0.08 0.53 1.097 3640.092 0.5605 68.682 0.53955 -103.0122 -39.102 3815 3052 30.909 0.7967 60 0.126 4730.046 1742.45 0.976 0.075 2827.8054 57.21209 67 0.011 0.65 31.5211 84 0.16 0.4665 5.887 -58.387 0.8049 74 0.8831 70 0.14 31.05 37.11 0.4599 61 0.05 0.105 3939.44 0.90 1.2502 146.0063 80 0.8746 14.804 0.31 2046.15 0.43 2504.42 21.32 2387.1222 114.13 0.055 0.20 0.083 3130.7146 130.9 2725.4 3032.59 1.874 0.35 3141.4036 63 0.6621 49.077 2901.926 29.57 3167.7583 32.18 0.109 4095.3532 36.7407 90 0.57 3052.3267 73.087 3276.6234 10.097 3618.56 1.17 24.9673 150.08 29.99 1.106 3959.9523 .677 0.1217 14.835 0.0982 -63.9675 94 0.3771 62 0.76 3139.717 0.34 25.3061 69 0.845 0.3245 4.7833 33.8642 39.931 0.2133 22.77 13.8658 156.3762 147.103 3871.2183 47.971 0.9901 -168.405 682.081 3051.965 0.347 64 0.49 1 0.73 41.53 1.041 0.602 87 0.068 2540.65 3097.21 2412.7473 14.7558 75.056 0.29 3121.93 2262.86 16.5199 43.0329 -156.2062 82 0.959 0.754 0.9869 107.58 0.774 0.1677 139.08 3015.796 0.2507 95 0.31 3098.79 2927 29.75 2792.0434 18.526 88 0.8962 96 0.32 0.103 3873.0088 66 0.102 3815.32 30.139 5199.323 65 0.81 2895 28.34 22.94 23.66 4159.5042 7.261 0.094 0.173 166.104 3902.91 2878.7545 2.373 91 0.2094 12.7646 56.81 31.31 1875.0958 114.68 1.4086 15.9732 45.52 1.147 5521.6983 63.9912 59 0.2889 68 0.54 32.0762 -75.4188 48.58 1.051 0.096 3597.465 0.5246 43.15 2935.091 3406.978 0.3232 41.46 0.42 3141.85205 79 0.61 1.57 3276.098 3669.085 3169.17 2320.106 3957.32 30.45 18.26 0.97 1.9551 156.1 3733 2986.59 1.45 20.08 2984.01 0.84873 77 0.976 76 0.22 0.1208 35.105 3926.068 2558.098 3658.0433 446.4765 72 0.65 30.36 0.21 31.22 1393.8285 -52.5973 135.67 3280.91752 -119.06 0.9272 71 0.3 44.61 1.47912 83 0.9377 -2.3981 48.48 3151.21175 -117.8405 97.00 0.7928 131.42 29.33 28.047 0.35056 93 0.032 0.4624 92.101 3790.017 0.2703 36.43 0.03 0.047 0.46 32.1291 -32.50379 92 0.52 27.949 199.033 0.56 2032.409 -12.105 3924.0381 -137.093 3490.3533 19.6 27.814 0.06 3784.76 3166.33 26.42 0.4143 -86.9505 34.784 78 0.9738 75 0.16 2535.5159 48.32 29.66 2621.2552 26.8633 58.1 2912.59 1.83 31.57 1.4114 48.07519 85 0.9865 45.6765 49.46 23.477 86 0.109 4100.33 25.017 0.08 2440.62 4417.88 31.60 1.673 89 0.

6755 155.89155 -101.225 0.87 3169.068 2558.084 3166.857 101 0.22 35.28 29.579 0.6949 50.6 3943.56 4028.44 40.067 0.91 30.125 115 0.02324 -149.095 3566.89 45.39 3061.954 0.0673 140.7503 260.804 117 0.151 5654.22092 -117.37 0.7442 87.4595 37.517 516.27 2533 25.098 3687.54 26.982 0.7912 114 0.44 2946 29.52346 120 0.4411 7.38904 -104.122 4593 3674.0536 237.4372 116 0.98 1.934 0.806 57.22 0.088 3290.0746 53.6497 7. 97 0.2259 201.801 0.14 2144.78 3526.75 39.63 1.491 -24.0618 4.94 1.2345 123 0.615 0.056 0.2844 121.41144 102 0.107 3999.24 0.086 3214.19 0.68 26.88 1761.3099 79.35679 -147.87 1.4497 103 0.0615 -14.9024 135 0.6569 121 0.32 28.6799 33.14 2852.106 3961.76 1.6312 49.37 0.54 1.6232 33.57 1.096 3585 2868 28.2947 125 0.4121 124 0.5353 62.91 28.16 0.86 2047.26 0.1254 22.3301 19.06 0.02 0.985 636.91 3353.429 958.13 4880.4709 5.99 1.698 0.30038 98 0.098 3682.93745 132 0.567 118 0.202 0.102 3827.58 3106.19 33.12 31.61 1.6191 43.934 0.093 3504 2803.072 2706.103 594.21 0.175 0.07 0.1518 133 0.44 24.4417 134 0.059 2201.25 35.72 1.823 0.0319 30.951 0.669 0.343 0.3758 106 0.598 111 0.67 2612.94 4092.73 42.136 5115.86 2571.75 3280.07 2616.9275 127.3586 0.715 0.6 2509.5291 32.41 0.983 0.72 2006.1647 66.2909 386.4368 112.05 0.53 33.02 0.094 0.14 5258.6615 118.0928 18.19 28.315 0.537 80.41 0.23 2469 24.46 0.8619 -9.89 25.5 17.2293 119 0.6517 131 0.0606 46.84 2632.0549 81.364 0.81 1.71 3199.0445 -32.118 0.21623 -111.18 20.3649 100 0.93 1.9 2862.75 40.508 0.084 3136.08 0.2426 .6 32.402 0.9976 51.188 -38.587 0.49 2801.1568 35.036 108 0.86 3605.302 0.5739 -60.093 3501.86 4523.122 0.7189 20.836 0.17 20.08 3003 2402.19 28.109 4100.112 4206.76 31.0868 311.054 0.27 0.6285 130 0.11 21.85 2950.956 0.2622 75.25314 127 0.7787 -46.0918 128 0.49 31.91 3163.41 4206.139 0.095 3577.21 2165 21.92 105 0.118 4407.4765 350.38824 -123.035 0.2299 134.47 0.9637 169.9571 104 0.0629 112 0.082 3086.2303 232.105 3953.49 3365.42 36.82 1735.0119 30.2389 180.2808 129 0.68 39.86 17.6898 16.112 4191.104 3882.40 0.0244 14.68 1.0475 108.134 5035.387 540.51 107 0.87319 122 0.28 25.64835 113 0.6519 63.96 1.9797 99 0.058 2169.067 2507.844 0.08 0.3526 54.84 1.6376 110 0.616 50.071 2680.9317 6.49 36.131 4929.021 0.808 126 0.09 20.087 3265.61 1.47 34.59 3416.3782 109 0.114 4270.682 0.5028 37.97 1.06 31.871 0.12 4506.93 3904.3268 22.722 0.46 2093.768 714.878 0.0689 157.73 1.857 0.

4672 129.842 0.0421 151 0.121 4530.45 2342 23.5849 43.56 1.6541 450.49 30.7748 165 0.67 34.248 0.136 0.55978 148 0.00 1.893 0.63 3451.044 0.76 0.09 3384.85 1.208 0.77 1.70 1.88 2445.27 2777.59 35.2448 83.896 0.2977 154 0.151 0.9567 39.8148 10.0544 360.084 3157.082 3056.026 0.09 0.9843 9.58 1.815 0.125 4680.115 4312.14 379.9069 97.5812 -29.4708 196.016 0.92 2869.903 0.957 0.5008 161 0.12 30.07 2858.487932 158 0.7108 172 0.531 0.8667 72.89 1.88 25.103 3866.5419 139 0.926 0.089 3349.095 3573.102 3823.5057 157 0.91 1.09 0.9736 152 0.77 1.267364 166 0.7782 29.5397 103.043 0.1 30.9449 -82.015 292.0067 21.051 147 0.9674 174 0.6372 149 0.71 34.6 3624.54 2631.5171 69.52 1.78 34.6682 124.67 26.7682 29.781 217.8858 52.0788 25.55 1.39 30.4665 163 0.124 0.031 0.8843 113.4659 117.84 2600.35 2525.3235 141 0.61 25.3012 41.9171 167 0.1916 143 0.79 1.093 3472.09 3360.67 1.074 2761.118 4416.40673 142 0.3283 .455 15.3296 75.116 4358.61 86.3163 22.5967 -17.6 3269.82 1.1422 4.104 3914 3131.849 0.5082 141.3762 145 0.38 3093.9637 95.2751 47.21 33.162 0.6954 33.1 26.128 4817.78104 164 0.7317 143.6928 56.076 2851.9883 160 0.99806 -94.92 1.293 144 0.37 2679.178 0.9439 190.112 4196.877 0.102 3810.55 3744.109 4086.429 55.2337 171 0.53 3516.5846 32.65 3030.15 0.6819 162 0.3122 47.087 3250.4978 69.785 -34.86 1.30 0.52 3357.46 28.88 27.2185 275.36 3790.12 0.5741 153 0.093 3471 2776.095 1018.33 3048.11 3058.781 0.736 0.0908 8.36 0.0344 28.318 170 0.63 26.5 26.206 159 0.5968 240.085 3184.53 1.119 0.69 37.51 2547.4196 12.101 3787.3802 319.7484 173 0.9834 -51.68277 138 0.28 32.953 0.7808 2.4039 168 0.41 0.2 3533 35.82 -9.46 3854 38.81 1.795 24.23 0.3334 150 0.23 3542.078 2927.115 4314.41 0.48 22.5721 62.30 0.662002 156 0.12 2688.181 0.106 0.25 0.50 1 0.3631 276.59 1.2588 18.28 33.7939 44.22 3449.5 24.35 2209.21 0.126 4738.8636 107.111 4147.72 1.6566 169 0.31 0.926 0.112 4216 3372.4761 19.1 3744.881 25.103 3849.6176 314.019 0.82 27.118 4428.01 0.2909 140 0.38 3127.54 28.1643 74.6994 -71.931 45.4899 233.85 2707.7887 146 1.85 2281.14 0.3188 306.1828 59.43 35.867 0.35 0.51 31.25 3661 36.088 3289.27 0.82 27.122 4576.54 1.447 424.18 0.172 0.285 0.7283 63.117 4395.594 486.24 3079.22 31.58 2995.4259 76.08 22.06897 137 0.0792 155 0.39 45.48 36.86 3318.81 1.264 0.26 30.153 5743 4594.104 3909.83 33.67 29.4826 42.096 3586.22 0.4444 93.73 1.0798 28.34 3486.44 37.

043 1594.95669 208 0.9929 89.65 1.2823 188 0.7056 284.097 3629.333 196 0.0379 35.7129 44.89 2347.6586 213 0.61 40.912 0.6665 181 0.7866 162.67524 -145.2721 12.6425 203 0.91 3309.1714 16.723 585.4 3577.13 0.4637 145.108 4043.73 2931 29.783 0.29 30.40 0.1528 119.086 3233.9149 25.79 3584.4154 37.27 0.87 38.2189 336.37 42.36 2691.175 0.26 0.765 340.142 5308 4246.59 3810.1123 109.106 3976.078 2909 2327.4719 -171.54 1.57 1.9461 128.92 35.091 3419 2735.9555 40.05403 202 0.6243 271.45513 199 0.25 31.28 40.4956 193 0.46683 205 0.0332 178 0.4667 133.38 37.5253 461.73 2903.1214 211 0.981 0.12 1784.1497 22.713 186 0.33 4146.12 3699.867 207 0.57 30.38 0.138 5183.7421 38.087 3268.84 1.3493 54.7658 191 0.119 4480.97 1.21 23.3725 189 0.695 70.149 0.88 1.4122 23.8 2818.15 2586.79 29.83 1.9338 97.4183 68.30 0.91 1.4499 32.036 0.53 34.136 5118.392 743.20841 .193 0.9019 451.094 3522.368526 212 0.134 5019.13 4889 3911.1 3698.595 0.71 0.078 2934.89675 176 0.123 4624.938 0.75 1.88 0.9848 89.0795 77.67 41.127 4763.88 1.06 0.304 0.3098 36.93 32.54 29.1349 47.2996 116.62 1.77 1.41 3447.3926 194 0.102 3839.45 0.24 2845 28.8785 -70.77 1.851 209 0.849 0.05 274.1824 30.425 0.078 0.188 637.93 2941.5647 177 0.4791 12.21 27.2166 183.72 2615 26.91 23.2061 -7.195 0.5 34.55 3440.44 0.094 3517.455 180 0.233 0.6479 206 0.1378 179 0.95 1.49 26.019 0.415 0.264 0.5309 74.2607 -74.6632 185 0.5557 43.91 1.40837 197 0.116 4336.897 0.8103 50.71 2843 28.4297 32.0493 -20.77 1.1391 65.4486 399.4044 68.71 28.1811 213.6609 182 0.2001 121.938 672.233 0.126 4741.103 0.147 0.55 1.2855 5.52 33.5212 271.3096 7.872 0.157 0.5905 201 0.25 0.40 0.38 0.024 0.088 3301.44 34.22 26.70 1.0571 204 0.07 0.098 3663.02 0.24 28.503 195 0.095 3553.104 3884.155 520.095 3556.5397 190 0.059 2231.29 3181 31.33 0.1575 -13.14 0.7562 -3.862 0.977 0.365 0.94 1.0616 187 0.338 0.06 3107.123 4623.0952 59.7792 79.46 0.3004 134.1371 30.3776 399.2324 48.71 2131 21.47 3055.28 3441.071 2663.07894 -106.6228 210 0.133 0.11 3071.83 34.948 0.29 36.9 17.11 4015.78 1.13 2813.52 25.62 12.8652 21.53 2641.27 0.27 4094.83721 200 0.98 1.1867 184 0.948 0.8516 192 0.9885 198 0.72 3793.098 3676.115 4300.4875 252.147 0.939 0.63 35.67 3234.1087 99.91458 183 0.115 4309.382 0.97 1.15 33.776 0.3521 27.48 36.93 3399.8463 79.102 3819.968 0.113 4248.11 4136.09 3364.00 0.88 3469.0725 46.9915 65.4753 69.23 39.115 4302.53 1275.119 4472.

1535 35.115 0.083 3104.867 0.862 0.79 30.094 3514 2811.13 0.6114 20.1436 229 0.073 2722.5848 16.4474 48.73 30.5294 219 0.21 0.2875 -43.937 0.68 3380.5877 130.4048 54.105 3930.6065 105.048 0.9631 -76. 214 0.0097 132.875 0.52 2834.0093 89.16 30.53 20.661 -16.7553 5.113 4225.0855 -26.085 3201.01 52.2165 232 0.4302 230 0.2551 41.39 0.42657 238 0.2608 242 0.109 4078.9726 304.43 0.72 1.123 4626.2518 115.62 12.14 3172.21 29.972 0.3249 60.4669 387.446 250 0.101 3804.27 2696.58 3676.108 4050.097 3644.058 0.19 2473.23 0.726 0.9426 -45.09 0.4208 -49.6053 -11.5683 235 0.52778 248 0.654 228 0.7636 237 0.28 25.0421 169.9 2602.4922 245 0.6299 56.95 3095.45 0.1562 244 0.48 32.417 220 0.49 33.106 3966.18 0.4861 6.9024 249 0.082 3092.094 3543.41 2075.102 3818.72 24.75 24.097 3647.86 2514.90 1.032 0.7096 234 0.015 0.35 29.069 2594.47 -171.42 3054.4319 442.087 3252.54 33.1428 18.83 2626.5771 185.3482 31.7761 240 0.32 26.259 0.38 37.11 2458.592 400.48 24.6233 38.0233 46.7614 223.38 0.52 1.91 25.63 1.26 26.8372 17.82 28.6313 111.6323 7.1821 35.178 0.1199 73.435 590.57 1.08 0.116 0.692 0.3182 227 0.134 5027.111 4165.1668 231 0.3523 243 0.60 1.76 -3.84917 -101.08 0.945 0.7781 8.42 2561.3526 218 0.107 4001.73 3777.5042 223 0.19 0.126 4721.034 0.33 31.123 4595.127 0.74 31.19 0.44 0.19 216 0.1707 11.3669 -37.26 2177.117 4390 3512 35.04986 224 0.71 1.854 0.088 3282.234 0.19 33.082 3073.18 28.7738 96.82786 -114.34 2317.9545 221 0.54 1.96 1.7375 16.56 35.93 3144.8054 64.117 246 0.74 3043.31 0.101 3781.61 3332.87 1.5835 247 0.4619 61.7435 45.08 40.018 0.3456 75.89 3025.111 0.74 3346.06 0.8734 70.5473 43.76 2918.5323 236 0.25 0.1118 30.81 1.14 25.17 3700.009 0.6 3240.825 0.0232 21.0195 239 0.7291 50.77 222 0.19 2915.46 36.721 0.91 3102.64 2586.74 1.0644 -20.067 0.9622 25.2626 22.53 1275.772 0.118 4418.600922 233 0.112 4182.2 3534.7157 229.74 3263 32.61 1.103 3877.838 0.6 4022.27 0.5686 217 0.5499 148.084 3142.088 0.7646 87.9516 45.65 2483.07 23.9511 215 0.225 0.4379 42.04 1594.25 0.81 21.77 3348.819 0.341 0.103 3868.88 1.00 0.53 1.1016 226 0.2208 120.0544 194.8691 21.23 21.7271 69.51 30.7445 315.25 3201 32.72 1.56 1.20747 -99.8952 min 0.1471 244.8857 230.93 37.22 26.66 1.09 3370.4862 61.828 0.2809 158.80 1.973 0.67 1.112 4185.7764 225 0.33 .899 0.91 31.171 0.086 3233.62 33.072 2704 2163.077 2896.1002 241 0.

36 134.23 210.02 727.99 4594.10 3729.01 5.05 medie 0.51 582.49 0.85 29.15 5742.max 1.86 sigma 0.32 .28 0.84 46.81 2983.09 1018.39 45.82 34.19 0.94 190.99 0.00 1.53 0.

9% 6.7% 2.5% 4.0% .9% 1.8% 2.42 22.2% 2.5% 4.3% 5.5% 6.1% 5.5% 6.0% 3.5% 4.67 120 144 168 193 217 241 266 290 314 338 58 74 85 96 112 124 139 152 166 171 180 192 195 202 209 214 6.8% 2.-26 -1.6% 4.85 47.12 71.4 95.

4% 0.363 387 411 435 460 484 508 533 557 581 605 630 654 678 702 727 219 222 226 227 231 233 234 236 237 237 240 241 243 244 245 246 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% .0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 1.8% 0.

0% 0.0% 0.2311 969.0% .4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7774 247 247 247 247 247 247 248 248 248 249 249 0.4% 0.4117 896.0% 0.5043 993.4% 0.6848 920.751 775 800 824 848 872.0% 0.0% 0.958 945.

051 247 -0.1018.8% .

6542331 .1288469 27 0.2998331 37 0.637015 mediana 0.8538688 22 0.6269567 18 0.8346702 14 0.simularea Monte Carlo RAND trial = rand() medie 0.25-.2821965 36 0.516383 1 0.9978345 30 0.4969078 16 0.8889695 24 0.8272317 23 0.75-1 16 0.096516 25 0.3830551 17 0.1539523 max 0.9767942 38 0.2 8 0.1632198 32 0.Functii excel .909101 0-.005559 3 0.997834 4 0.5021132 15 0.75 9 0.0055595 41 0.9500591 5 0.5-.5579603 40 0.1253498 26 0.32 10 0.2345472 39 0.5941345 12 0.3905385 19 0.7253315 21 0.50 10 0.3424292 31 0.482841 33 0.8395193 .49951 2 0.9565525 13 0.0201591 29 0.1067188 35 0.0438088 28 0.25 15 0.2207383 .9951734 cuartile frecv probab 6 0.3 7 0.1944898 50 1 11 0.18 9 0.8314876 .1362419 min 0.5278699 34 0.2273961 20 0.

066361 46 0.3794379 20000 16 0.4547726 43 0.1.7490081 40000 10% 20000 15 5 0.9805602 50 0.7801217 47 0.8866139 60000 11 0.4222482 20000 .9522548 60000 20 0. 42 0.75 45% 75% 60000 25% >=0.6253188 40000 21 0.7156877 40000 9 0.9889841 SIMULAREA UNEI VARIABILE ALEATOARE DISCRETE cererea probabilitat numar aleator min max 10000 10% <0.0596023 10000 10 0. <0.098531 10000 22 0.6050612 49 0.9155937 60000 14 0.7600649 60000 13 0.8990914 60000 23 0.2509432 20000 2 0. <0.0964579 10000 17 0.3710713 20000 19 0.4672606 44 0.9332056 45 0.45.1 0% 10% 20000 35% >=0.4244567 20000 75% 60000 14 7 0.75 75% 100% trial = rand() = cererea praguri (cut offs) 1 0.6656027 40000 24 0.3205773 48 0.3301551 20000 45% 40000 17 6 0.8648575 60000 18 0.5313423 40000 50 8 0.6952412 40000 25 0.4912883 40000 15 0.45 10% 45% 40000 30%>=0.8868854 60000 cererea frecventa 3 0.0045216 10000 0% 10000 4 4 0.1567523 20000 12 0.

2686 9 0.420904 20000 48 0.0277184 20845.9903 12 0.6378 4 0. simulare 1 0.6307 8 0.7362679 40000 47 0.9835057 60000 41 0.0896841 26572.8612 5 0.9366789 60000 SIMULAREA UNEI VARIABILE ALEATOARE NORMALE medie 40000 sigma 10000 trial rand normal r.9068228 60000 36 0.7100487 45535.v.4705914 40000 31 0.361731 20000 38 0.395471 20000 40 0.4432564 38572.3213876 20000 49 0.8873438 52125.7438865 40000 33 0.6052041 40000 50 0.1383035 29120.1540246 29806.9213703 60000 46 0. 26 0.7872619 60000 39 0.9736 .8934 13 0.7483615 40000 42 0.1989129 31544.7000396 45245.9697316 58768.8729 11 0.3364714 35778.269 sigma 10077 3 0.1486411 20000 30 0.7251762 40000 34 0.5072709 40000 43 0.4414312 20000 27 0.7607 6 0.5742145 40000 32 0.1126237 20000 44 0.145 medie 40294.7094063 40000 28 0.9636232 60000 35 0.8175 10 0.8714147 60000 37 0.8998305 52805.227 7 0.6551267 43991.3313994 20000 45 0.4650186 40000 29 0.09 2 0.

3877 21 0.7719247 47452.3771057 36869.8614 48 0.8372 22 0.2335 16 0.7226067 45906.7159308 45707.5840252 42122.2411 20 0.025595 20501.6362 35 0.4019555 37517.8818285 51841.5601 38 0.5584 49 0.0443219 22974.3164205 35222.8371 44 0.4291 43 0.9303493 54783.4537812 38838.6609 19 0.9638152 57967.187153 31115.9820889 60989.3993 33 0.0369 .6274 25 0.5212 39 0.7709937 47421.8293135 49514.0052 46 0.5350039 40878.9055 36 0.3431607 35961.0549862 24016.3533 24 0.4774 15 0.7689 45 0.0485 17 0.1713 50 0.2408543 32964.7363196 46320.0886 28 0.6741296 44513.9541 27 0.7237326 45939.1748127 30646.2101076 31939.4517 26 0.8624 32 0.1124 42 0.8316 31 0.2280621 32547.9767 34 0.8554285 50600.6813 41 0.0188 37 0.5473 23 0.7147 29 0.9041258 53054.14 0.0293 40 0.5330307 40828.1217 18 0.0034 47 0.6151729 42928.6559417 44014.5012907 40032.0681861 25105.2722 30 0.5827257 42088.2735539 33979.4556035 38884.

34 0.08 0.probabilitate 0.3 0.28 1 .