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PRESENTING SPONSOR

EVENT PARTNERS

1
The forecasts and commentary do
not constitute an official viewpoint
of Old Dominion University, its
President, John R. Broderick, the
Board of Visitors, the Strome
College of Business, or the
generous donors who support the
activities of the Dragas Center for
Economic Analysis and Policy and
the Economic Forecasting Project.
2018 National and Virginia
Economic Forecast

Accelerating Growth,
Increasing Risk

Professor Robert McNab

January 31, 2018


Current and Historical Expansions
Expansion Duration Annual Annual
In months Employment Real GDP Growth
Growth
October 1949 – July 1953 45 4.35% 6.14%
May 1954 – August 1957 39 2.51% 3.67%
April 1958 – April 1960 24 3.58% 4.86%
February 1961 – December 1969 106 3.23% 4.68%
November 1970 – November 1973 36 3.38% 4.60%
March 1975 – January 1980 58 3.52% 4.01%
December 1982 – July 1990 91 2.81% 3.81%
March 1991 – March 2001 120 2.01% 3.45%
November 2001 – December 2007 73 0.88% 2.66%
June 2009 – Present* 103 1.38% 2.14%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP in chained 2009 dollars.
4
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annual Real GDP CAGR derived from quarterly series. Annual employment CAGR derived from monthly series. Current expansion data ends in 2017 Q3. Average
annual Real GDP CAGR of previous expansions = 4.21% while average annual employment CAGR from previous expansions = 2.92%
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
United States and Virginia, 2010 - 2017 Q4
3.5% 3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.6%
2.5%

2.0%

1.5%
2.3%
1.0% 1.5% 1.6%

0.5%

0.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. U.S. Q4 and VA Q3 are advance estimates. VA Q4 is our forecast. 5
Quarterly numbers are annualized rates of growth
Total Nonfarm Employment
United States, January 2007 – December 2017
150,000
147,380
145,000 + 17.65 Million Jobs
Thousands of Jobs

140,000

135,000 129,733
130,000

125,000

120,000
Jul-08

Jul-16
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08

Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10

Jul-12
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12

Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-17
6
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December 2017 are preliminary. Trough was February 2010.
Total Nonfarm Employment
Virginia, January 2007 - December 2017
4,100
3,966.5
4,000
+400,400 Jobs
Thousands of Jobs

3,900

3,800

3,700
3,596.1

3,600

3,500

3,400

Jul-15
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10

Jul-12
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12

Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15

Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December 2017 are preliminary. Trough is February 2010.
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Virginia and the United States, 2008-2017
8% 6.47%
6%
4%
4.69%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
1
5
9

101
105
109
113
117
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008. Peak employment for Virginia was April 2008. 8
Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017. December 2017 data are preliminary. Data measure the number of reported jobs by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Virginia and United States, January 2007 - December 2017
12%
10.0%
10%

8%

6% 4.6% 4.1%
7.4%
4%

2% 3.7%
3.0%
0%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
United States Virginia
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. December 2017 data are preliminary.
Alternative Measure of the Unemployment Rate (U6)
Virginia and the United States, 2003-2017
18% 16.7%
16%
14%
12% 10.1%
8.5%
10% 8.2% 12.9%
8%
6% 7.9%
4% 6.8%
2% 6.0%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
United States Virginia
10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. U-6 measures total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. State level data based on 4-quarter moving average. Annual averages are presented.
Month-to-Month Change in Labor Force
Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017
25,000
19,560
20,000
15,000
10,911
9,351 7,991
10,000 7,460
5,461 4,782 6,061
3,770
Individuals

5,000
368
0
-5,000 1,549

-10,000
-15,000 11,411

-20,000 18,263
-25,000
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary.
Month-to-Month Change in Employment
Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017
25,000 22,158
20,000
15,000 13,35813,836
10,304
10,000 8,280 8,438
4,402 4,697 5,331
5,000
Jobs

230 475
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000 12,832
-20,000 16,746
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary.
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
United States, January 1980 – December 2017
80% 77.9%
75%
69.0%
70%
63.7%
65% 62.7%
60%
55%
57.0%
50%
51.5%
45%
40%
1982

1993

2004

2015
1980
1981

1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2016
2017
Overall Men Women
13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data.
Labor Force Participation Rate
Virginia, January 1976 to December 2017
74%
71.5%
72%
69.7%
70%

68% 65.3%

66%

64%

62%

60%
1976

1982

1996

2002

2008
1977
1978
1979
1981

1983
1984
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994

1997
1998
1999
2001

2003
2004
2006
2007

2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
14
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data.
Federal Deficit in Billions of Dollars
$400
$236
$200 $128

$0

-$200 $158 $161


$248
-$400 $318
$378 $413
-$600
$459 $485 $438
$585
-$800 $680 $666

-$1,000

-$1,200 $1,087

-$1,400 $1,294
$1,300
$1,413
-$1,600
2001
2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
15
Source: Office of Management and Budget and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Federal deficits in nominal dollars.
Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP
United States, 1950-2017*
12%
9.53%
10%

8%
6.52%
6%

4%

2%

0%
1972

1998
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970

1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996

2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
16
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Corporate Profits After Tax Without Inventory Adjustment. 2017 is through the 3rd quarter.
Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio
Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index
January 1881 – January 2018
50
44.20
45
40
32.56 33.60
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1889

1909

1929

1965

1985

2005
1881
1885

1893
1897
1901
1905

1913
1917
1921
1925

1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961

1969
1973
1977
1981

1989
1993
1997
2001

2009
2013
2017
17
Source: Robert Schiller, Irrational Exuberance. Prices and earnings are in January 2000 dollars. Data as of January 16th, 2018 market close. For further information: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
Virginia and the United States, 2012-2018
3.5%

2.9% 3.0%
3.0%
2.6%
2.5% 2.4%
2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
2.0%
1.7% 1.7%
1.5%
1.5%

1.0%
0.6% 0.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. 2017 US is an advance estimate. 2017 VA and 2018 are our forecasts.
2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 2.3% 3.0%
Civilian Job Growth 1.5% 1.2% 1.1%
Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.1% 3.8%
Consumer Price Index 2.8% 2.2% 2.9%
Core Consumer Price Index 2.4% 1.7% 2.2%
3-month Treasury Bill 1.3% 1.4% 2.0%
10-year Treasury Bill 3.2% 2.4% 3.2%
30-year Treasury Bill -- 2.8% 3.6%
30-year Conventional Mortgage 4.3% 4.0% 5.0%
Federal Deficit --- -$655 Billion -$750 Billion

Virginia Real GDP* 1.5% 1.7% 2.2%


Virginia Employment Growth --- 1.4% 1.3%
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Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate. 2017 VA GDP is an estimate based on the first 3 quarters. Data are rounded to nearest tenth.
2018 Hampton
Roads
2018 Hampton Roads
Economic
Economic
Forecast Forecast

Stagnant
Stagnant Growth,
Improving
Growth, Future?
Improving
Professor
Future? Vinod Agarwal

January
Professor31, 2018
Vinod
Agarwal
January 31, 2018
Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP
Hampton Roads and the United States
3%
2.17% 2.25%
2.12%
2%
1.62%
1.49%

1% 0.80%
-0.04% -1.09%
0%

-1%

-2%
2001 to 2009 2009 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017e
United States Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September 21
2017. US GDP is advance estimate while Hampton Roads GDP is our estimates.
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Hampton Roads, Virginia and United States, 2008-2017
8% 6.47%
6%
4%
4.69%
2%
0%
-2%
-4% -2.25%
-6%
-8%
1
5
9

101
105
109
113
117
121
29

41

53
13
17
21
25

33
37

45
49

57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008, Virginia was April 2008, and Hampton Roads was July 2007.
Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017 (US and VA) and November 2017 (HR). Last month of data are preliminary. Data measure number of reported jobs.
Defense Spending
in Hampton Roads
DoD Base Budget Cap, Request, and Appropriations Bills
Fiscal Year 2018
$590 $584 $581
$580 $574
$570
Billions of Dollars

$560
$550
$540
$530 $522
$520
$510
$500
$490
DoD Budget POTUS Request House Senate
Control Act Cap Appropriations Appropriations
Sources: Budget Control Act of 2011, FY 2018 Presidential Budget Request, U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate
Estimated Direct DoD Spending
Hampton Roads, 2000 to 2017
25.0

20.0
19.5 19.2 19.6
Billions of Dollars

15.0
10.0
10.0

5.0

0.0
2002

2003

2014
2000

2001

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2015

2016

2017
Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement. 25
Data for 2016 are estimates and data for 2017 are forecasts.
Estimated Average Compensation
Hampton Roads, Selected Categories

Change in
2015 2016
Compensation

Military $91,561 $92,189 0.69%


Federal Civilian Govt.
$107,322 $109,624 2.15%
Employees
State and Local Govt.
$62,602 $64,164 2.49%
Employees
Private Nonfarm $42,189 $41,751 -1.04%
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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Compensation includes wages, salaries, and benefits.
Where are the jobs?
Average Annual Civilian Jobs
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
800
771.8 769.4
780 775.5

760
Thousands of Jobs

740 737.1

720 706.6

700

680

660
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March 2018
Change in Private Sector Employment
Selected Industries in Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to 2017 Q1
Health Care and Social Assistance 19
Accodomation and Food 4
Transportation and Warehousing 1
Professional and Scientific 1
Management of Companies 1
Utilities -1
Finance and Insurance -2
Admin and Support -3
Real Estate -4
Information -5
Wholesale Trade -5
Retail Trade -6
Manufacuting -7
Construction -11
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Thousands of Jobs
Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Civilian Labor Force
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
860 846 835 838
840 827
820
Thousands of Individuals

800
780
760 746
740
720
700
680
660

Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
Number of Individuals Employed
Hampton Roads, 1999 to 2017
820

800 792
797 796 803
Thousands of Individuals

780

760

740
721
720

700

680

660

Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Hampton Roads, Virginia, and United States
January 2007-December 2017*
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
4.3%
6%
4.1%
5%
4%
3%
3.7%
2%
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Sep-15

Sep-16
May-07
Sep-07

May-08
Sep-08

May-09
Sep-09

May-10
Sep-10

May-11
Sep-11

May-12
Sep-12

May-13
Sep-13

May-14
Sep-14

May-15

May-16

May-17
Sep-17
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project. Preliminary data: US and VA (Dec 17) and HR (Nov 17). Hampton Roads data only through November 2017.
Residential Housing
is Looking Up
Value of Building Permits for One-Unit Family Homes
Hampton Roads, 1991-2017
$1,600

$1,400 $1,338
$1,200
Millions of Dollars

$1,000
$978

$800
$551
$600

$400

$200

$0
1991

1999

2006

2013
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
Existing and New Construction Home Sales
Hampton Roads, 2010-2017
25,000 23,492

20,000
14,703
15,000

10,000

5,000 3,228
2,265

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Existing Homes New Construction

Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here
represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
Distribution of New Construction Home Sales by Financing Type
Hampton Roads, 2000-2017
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 49.0%
50%
40% 29.0%
30%
20% 15.8%
10% 4.1%
0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
FHA VA Conventional Cash
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
Median Sales Price of Existing Homes
Hampton Roads, 2002-2017
$250,000
$223,000 $219,000
$180,000
$200,000

$150,000 $116,900

$100,000

$50,000

$0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 2002-2007 = 91% increase. 2011-2017 is a 22% increase.
Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected
Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and 2017

Median Price Median Price


City % change
2007 2017
Chesapeake $250,100 $245,000 -2.0%
Norfolk $195,000 $183,500 -5.9%
Portsmouth $165,500 $140,000 -15.4%
Suffolk** $257,500 $240,000 -6.8%
Virginia Beach $245,000 $247,500 +1.2%
Hampton $180,000 $155,000 -13.9%
Newport News $199,250 $170,000 -14.7%
Williamsburg* $284,450 $283,000 -0.5%
Hampton Roads $223,000 $219,000 -1.8%
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. 38
* Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950
Short Sales and Bank-Owned Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Hampton Roads, 2006-2017
30%
26.6%
25%

20%

15%

10% 7.1% 8.4%

5% 1.2% 3.6%
0.2%
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Short Sales REO Sales
Hotel Industry
Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads
2000-2017
$900 $841.6
$803.1
$800
$708.3
$700 $645.3
Millions of Dollars

$600
$520.2
$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Growth in Hotel Revenue and Revenue Per Available Room
United States, Virginia, and Hampton Roads, 2016-2017
6.0%

5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9%

4.0% 3.9%

3.0% 2.9%
3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Hotel Revenue Revenue per Available Room
Growth in Hotel Revenue
Hampton Roads, 2016 to 2017

Hampton Roads 4.80%

Chesapeake/Suffolk 5.81%

Newport News/Hampton 3.85%

Norfolk/Portsmouth 14.43%

Virginia Beach 4.15%

Williamsburg Market 0.16%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Source: STR Trend Report, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Williamsburg Market includes James City County, York County, and City of Williamsburg.
Monthly Airbnb Revenue in Hmapton Roads
2015-2017
$7
$5.88
$6

$5
Millions of Dollars

$4

$3
$2.16
$2

$1 $0.42

$0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017
Source: Aidna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms
Port of Virginia:
Growing rapidly
General Cargo Tonnage
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
25
21.97
20 18.84
17.83
Millions of Tons

15

10

0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs)
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
3,000 2,841

2,500
2,224
2,128
Thousands of TEUs

2,000
1,745
1,500 1,348

1,000

500

0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Movement of Containers by Type of Transportation
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
1.20
1.04
0.98 0.95
1.00 0.93
Millions of Containers

0.82 0.84
0.80 0.77

0.60 0.55 0.57


0.45 0.48
0.39 0.43
0.40 0.33

0.20

0.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Axis Title
Rail Barge & Truck
Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
2,000
1,798
1,800
1,600 1,514
1,410
1,400 1,307 1,341
Number of TEUs

1,158 1,201
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
49
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
Hampton Roads 1.4% -- --
Real Gross Domestic Product
Initial Forecast
Hampton Roads 0.8% -- 1.2%
Real Gross Domestic Product
Mid-year revision
Civilian Job Growth 0.5% -0.3% 0.5%
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 3.9%
Taxable Sales 2.6% 3.0% 3.0%
Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9%
General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.8%
One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.5% 2.4%
50
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate.
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51
Questions?
Presentation slides will be available on our website
www.ceapodu.com

Professor Vinod Agarwal (vagarwal@odu.edu)


Professor Robert McNab (rmcnab@odu.edu)

Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy


Strome College of Business
Old Dominion University

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