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The estimation of probability of ignition is a key step in the assessment of risk
for installations where flammable liquids or gases are stored. The Health and
Safety Executive currently use simple models, such as that contained within
Flammables RISKAT (Clay et al, 1988), to calculate ignition probability. These
simple models tend to assume that ignition probability is a function only of
release rate, or flammable gas cloud size, and do not consider location, density or
type of ignition source.
In a previous study (Spencer & Rew, 1997), a statistical framework for calculating
ignition probability was outlined in which the approach used was to model the
distribution of likely ignition sources and to calculate the ignition probability
by considering whether the flammable gas cloud reaches these sources. In the second
phase of this study (Rew et al, 1998), data was collated on the properties of
ignition sources within three generic off-site land-use types: industrial, urban
and rural. This data was then incorporated into the statistical framework to
produce a working model for ignition probability. However, this model does not
consider on-site ignition as the ignition source data collated for industrial areas
is not typical of those likely to be found on sites which either process or store
flammable liquids or gases.
Ignition sources on gas storage or chemical process plants tend to be better
controlled than offsite sources through, for example, the use of Hazardous Area
Classification (for fixed electrical equipment) or permit-to-work procedures
(mobile sources and hot work). A model for on-site ignition probability would need
to take into account the implementation of such control measures. However, these
measures are designed to prevent ignition of mainly small releases within defined
hazardous areas and an ignition probability model would also need to consider large
releases coming into contact with sources within non-hazardous areas and buildings.
These sources may include flares, gas-fired equipment, transportation
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functionalwould then be input to the statistical framework, discussed above,
allowing on-site ignition probability to be determined. The model would be designed
to be site-specific, taking into account the type of processes it includes and also
the quality of implementation of procedures controlling fixed or mobile ignition
sources within hazardous areas.
1.2.2 Scope of work
The sites covered by this study are industrial sites which may be classified as
�hazardous installations�. These sites are taken as being all sites covered by the
COMAH regulations. The aim of the model will be to be able to represent all release
types, but the emphasis in the development stage will be on the handling and
storage of LPG.
Therefore, the work is based predominantly on sites with LPG storage, with
recommendations given to adapting the model parameters for other use, such as for
large-scale oil and gas processing and chemical plants. These types of sites are
assumed to cover the majority of major
RSU 4014/R04.081 1 February 2002
hazard installations (i.e. those covered by COMAH), although it is recognised that
other types will occur.
In any release that is modelled, both immediate

data for on-site ignition

Incident and experimental data relating to the on-site ignition of flammable gases
have been reviewed. The starting point for this task was data collated by Worsell
(1997), Jeffreys et al (1982) and Cox et al (1990), as well as applicable
information given in various reviews of ignition sources on offshore installations.
Significant on-site ignition sources have been identified and ranked, allowing
those that have a negligible effect on ignition probability to be eliminated.
1.3.2 Review of methods for control of ignition sources
The key procedures for control of ignition sources (e.g. Hazardous Area
Classification, permit-to-work systems, smoking control, static control etc.) have
been reviewed and an assessment made of their effectiveness in preventing ignition
within hazardous areas. The significance of ignition within controlled hazardous
areas with respect to non-hazardous areas has been considered.
1.3.3 Collation of data for on-site ignition sources
Data which defines the properties of on-site ignition sources (strength,
intermittencey, density per unit area of site) has been collated. This was
facilitated, primarily, through surveys of sources on a selection of sites. Much
data on the area density of ignition sources, and hence the quantity of flares, gas
fired equipment etc., per unit area of site, has been derived from consideration of
the typical design of process plants.
1.3.4 Incorporation of data into ignition probability

is site specific and has been based on the statistical framework devised by Spencer
& Rew (1997). It considers ignition sources within hazardous and non-hazardous
areas as follows:
(i)
Hazardous areas. The density of fixed and mobile ignition sources is defined for
various types of hazardous plant, both with ideal and with poor implementation of
control measures. A scoring system has been devised allowing the quality of
implementation of ignition control measures to be assessed and, depending on the
score obtained, the density of the ignition sources may be set at a level between
those defined for ideal and poor implementation.
RSU 4014/R04.081 2 February 2002
(ii)
Non-hazardous areas. Generic types of non-hazardous areas have been defined
(offices, canteens, types of process plant not containing flammable material, etc.)
and ignition source data defined for each.
1.3.5 Implementation within risk assessment
The model has been compared against historical data for on-site ignition and also
against current methodologies used for the prediction of on-site ignition
probability, to confirm that it accommodates all the various factors which are
known to have a
.
or trends that are relevant to on-site ignition sources.
Section 3 summarises the methods used in hazardous installations to control
ignition sources. Aspects of ignition controls that have the potential to vary are
identified, so that the model can account for sites with differing ignition control
qualities.
Input data for a generic hazardous installation are proposed in Section 4.
Sensitivity studies are presented, which determine the key aspects to be considered
in the modelling of a typical site. The parameters that are most likely to vary,
and the impact of each on the overall model, are also identified.
Section 5 uses this input data to represent a typical LPG processing facility. This
model defines the �base case� for this study, which is aimed at LPG facilities in
particular. Sensitivity analyses are presented, with particular reference to the
potential variations in the quality of ignition controls applied to a site,
together with comparisons of the ignition probability against existing
methodologies. In order to demonstrate how ignition sources may vary from site to
site, and how use of the model may be modified accordingly, Section 6 presents the
input data that may be used for different types of facility, such as a typical oil
refinery. It should be noted that the model parameters are not derived in such
detail in the latter case, where the primary aim is to establish the potential
differences, and their impacts, between