31 August 2010

Ground Reality
Vibrant Gujarat
Glimpses of the Gujarat growth story
Recently, we visited Gujarat for a ground reality on the state’s growth story. We met with the senior management of its apex bodies – Gujarat Infrastructure Development Board, Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation and Gujarat Industrial Extension Bureau. We also interacted with the teams at Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam and the ambitious GIFT City. And to top it all, we got several insights from the very occupant of Gujarat’s Corner Office, Mr Narendra Modi. We capture glimpses of the Vibrant Gujarat growth story in the following pages.

C orner O ffice
Our interaction with Chief Minister Mr Narendra Modi threw up insights on various subjects.


Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam
We met the top management for a reality check on the tangible benefits of the project. We came back impressed with how the project is proving to be a gamechanger for Gujarat and India. The Rs700b project, expected to be ready in 2012, will have 75,000km of feeder canals and will generate 1,450MW of hydro power.

GIFT (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City) is positioned as an International Finance Center with a strategic location and world class infrastructure. The Master Plan for the 62msf project is complete. The initial phase of 4msf is targeted to be completed in 2012. The target segment is core financial services, capital market & trading.

At the forefront of industrial development
We were amazed to note the pace of industrial and infrastructure development. The Blueprint for Investment in Gujarat 2020 (BIG 2020) envisages investment of Rs11,809b in 19 infrastructure sectors. The vision is to make Gujarat a globally preferred place to live in and to do business through accelerated, balanced, inclusive & sustainable growth.

Satyam Agarwal (AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5410

Ground Reality

C orner O ffice


Narendra Modi, Chief Minister, Gujarat
We met the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Mr Narendra Modi. The interaction threw up insights on various subjects. Gujarat has several records to its credit, including one of the highest agricultural GDP growth rates of 9% against a national average of 2%. The state is increasingly becoming a preferred choice for industry due to a stable policy regime and high quality infrastructure. Human development, including education, employment and health, is a key focus area. Gujarat is fast emerging as a role model of economic and social development.

Several impeccable records

Gujarat is probably the only Indian state in which the ground water level has increased over the past 10 years, driven by state government efforts towards interlinking of rivers, etc. The state’s agriculture economy has also reported robust GDP growth of 9% over past several years and this is much higher than all-India average of 2%. This has led to economic development including better quality of lives for masses, including in rural areas, etc. Development and fiscal health can go hand in hand. Ten years ago, Gujarat had a fiscal deficit of Rs67b but today it has a budget surplus of Rs5b. Also, over 10 years, Gujarat’s state electricity boards have turned in a profit of Rs4b from a loss of Rs25b, despite no tariff hikes in the past 10 years and post discounts of Rs9b towards promotion of new sectors. Gujarat has been the pioneer in terms of starting the model of professionalizing PSUs as opposed to closure or privatization.

Role model for other states: focus on inclusive growth

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River interlinking is a key issue facing India. Access to water will lead to increased ground water level, improve the quality of lives and create jobs in rural areas. This initiative can lead to a 400bp change in GDP growth. Gujarat has been a pioneer in this with the Sardar Sarovar project interlinking most of the rivers in the state. Gujarat has recommended state government companies use 30% of profits for social purposes. Models for land acquisition are being formulated in which a farmer becomes a partner in the development of the land. Gujarat has been at the forefront in terms of development models for improving the quality of lives, including in villages. Several of these schemes are being studied and adopted by other states as well, including:  Tribal Development Model: most states in India have studied the Gujarat example.  Jyotigram Yojana (making available 24 hours three phase quality power supply to all 18,000 villages): the Indian government has recommended other states follow the example.  Evening Court: the Supreme Court has asked other states to start similar courts.  Chiranjeevi (reducing infant mortality): this project is being studied by other Indian states and the World Bank.

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Ground Reality Policy driven state provides assurance to investors: Preferred choice for industries

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Gujarat is a policy driven state and the stability of policies provides meaningful assurance to entrepreneurs. Being policy driven, the scope for interpretation is minimal, reducing scope for corruption. Gujarat’s focused development methodology adopted for several industries like ceramics, power generation, petrochemicals has made it a national/global hub in many of these industries. Although the policies of the central government are more liberal than those of the Gujarat government in solar power, Gujarat is expected to become a global hub for solar power equipment manufacturing due to the assurance of policies and a focused development approach by the government. The state government is promoting ship building given Gujarat’s coastline and it targets a market share of 5% in the global ship-building segment. The state government also intends to enhance value addition in agriculture, which will enable Gujarat to capture a larger pie in the chain. Interlinking of the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor with a netwrok of infrastructure facilities being developed by the State government is expected to make Gujarat a default choice for industries. Special Investment Regions will promote large-scale development of industries in a cluster approach, optimizing infrastructure and resources (such as disaster management and water treatment for chemical industries, etc) and addressing issues like environment impact and quality of life. This will also check the scattered development of industries. Besides better quality infrastructure, Gujarat also has cordial labor relations, with zero mandays lost. In comparison, the second best state is at 13 days.

Human development at the forefront
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The Chief Minister emphasizes human development, including availability of water, power, education, health and nutrition. Over the past 10 years, 14 universities have been developed in Gujarat and seats available in technical institutions have doubled over the past three years. New institutes for marine engineering, forensic science and others like Raksha Shakti University and Children’s University are being planned. Some of them are among the first in the world. In terms of women’s education, Gujarat was one of the most backward states 10 years ago. Now it has 100% girl children enrollment, and dropout rates in primary schools have declined from 40% 10 years ago to 2% currently. The government has also focused on skill development, with 2-10 week crash courses, which have boosted employment opportunities. A model is being run on a PPP basis, with payment being made by the government after a person gets a job. For instance, increased airport passenger traffic growth has led to higher demand for ground staff and so, 400 people within a 3km radius of the airport were selected and given 2-10 week training.

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Ground Reality

Gujarat: At the forefront of industrial development
We met the senior management of Gujarat Infrastructure Development Board, Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation and Gujarat Industrial Extension Bureau, and were amazed to note the pace of industrial and infrastructure development. The Blueprint for Investment in Gujarat 2020 (BIG 2020) envisages investment of Rs11,809b in 19 infrastructure sectors. The vision is to make Gujarat a globally preferred place to live in and to do business through accelerated, balanced, inclusive and sustainable growth, driven by robust social, industrial and physical infrastructure.

Gujarat at the forefront of industrial development

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Gujarat is among India's most industrialized states. It has 5% of India's population but contributes to 16% of its industrial production, 16% of its industrial investment, 15% of exports and 30% of India's market capitalization. Globally, Gujarat has (i) largest centre for polished diamonds, (ii) third largest steel hub, (iii) largest grassroots petroleum refinery and (iv) biggest lined irrigation canal. Gujarat will be power surplus by the end of CY10 (a meaningful achievement). It has doubled seat availability in technical institutions over the past three years (to provide skilled labor), its land bank/project status data will go online from August 2010, enabling online monitoring by investors. All this provides a conducive infrastructure to promote industrial development.

Phases of development of industrial infrastructure in Gujarat
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Gujarat's stages of industrial development are as follows: Stage 1: 83 product clusters; Stage 2: 202 industrial estates; Stage 3: 60 SEZs; and Stage 4: investment regions. Going forward, Gujarat plans to create large investment regions including (i) the DelhiMumbai Industrial Corridor, (ii) the Ahmedabad-Dholera Special Investment Region, (iii) a petroleum, chemicals and petrochemical investment region, (iv) Gujarat International Finance Tech City, (v) a knowledge corridor, and (vi) integrated townships. These will now promote large scale development of industries in a cluster approach.

Industrial Development: A Progressive Approach

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Ground Reality Blueprint for investment in Gujarat 2020
The Blueprint for Investment in Gujarat 2020 (BIG 2020) envisages investment of Rs11,809b in 19 infrastructure sectors. The vision is to make Gujarat a globally preferred place to live in and to do business through accelerated, balanced, inclusive and sustainable growth, driven by robust social, industrial and physical infrastructure. The framework of action to achieve this vision comprises infrastructure sector visions, strategies and several projects. These will orchestrate infrastructure development, considering sector priorities and interlinks with other sectors. The key strategies are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Achieving upper middle class countries' per capita power generation and consumption benchmarks by building large power generation capacities; Making gas a preferred fuel across Gujarat's urban and industrial landscape; Accelerating industrialization by developing world class and globally competitive industrial infrastructure; Developing seamless, efficient and high speed integrated transport, conforming to global standards; Becoming a major international player in sea freight logistics; Developing cities that are safe, efficient, clean and green and offer high quality of life; Ensuring safe, reliable and affordable drinking water in Gujarat and providing stable water supply for agriculture; Making Gujarat a global tourist destination; Creating good healthcare infrastructure to achieve healthcare indices and to reach upper middle class countries' benchmarks; 10. Creating a network of educational institutions to make Gujarat a globally recognized knowledge society.

The Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor
The Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) is a high impact industrial area of 150km distance on each side of a Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) being laid between Delhi and Mumbai. DFC is a new rail transport system with high axle, multinodal features. Gujarat accounts for 38% of the proposed length of the DFC. Six industrial nodes are being planned in Gujarat and the influence area of the DMIC/DFC comprises 62% of the area in the state and 74% of the population.

DMIC: Proposed Nodes in Gujarat

The broad targets are to double employment potential in the region, triple industrial output and quadruple exports in five years.

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Ground Reality

Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam
We met the top management of Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam for a reality check on the tangible benefits of the project, given its much-publicized adverse ecological impact. We came back impressed with how the project is proving to be a game-changer for Gujarat and India. The dam across the Narmada River, the largest in the world, will, when complete, create irrigation potential of 1.8m hectares, ~25% of the target under Bharat Nirman. The progress of the project so far has helped Gujarat to sustain 9-10% agriculture GDP growth, create about a million jobs in rural areas, increase rural incomes and led to lower dropout rates from schools. The Rs700b project, expected to be ready in 2012, will have a 458km main canal, 75,000km of feeder canals and will generate 1,450MW of hydro power.

Water distribution in Gujarat is skewed towards the southern parts
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Gujarat has 185 rivers, 8 of which are perennial. All the rivers are located mainly in the southern part of the state. Gujarat's water resources are distributed as: South Gujarat 71%, North Gujarat 11%, Saurashtra 10%, Kutch 2%.

A third of the incremental irrigation potential targeted by Bharat Nirman will come from Gujarat - a key achievement

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In Gujarat, the irrigation potential is 6.488m hectares. Of this, irrigation potential created is 3.099m hectares and used is 2.37m hectares. The ultimate irrigation potential to be created through surface water is 3.94m hectares. The Sardar Sarovar project has potential to create irrigation potential of 1.845m hectares. To put things in perspective, the irrigation potential being created as part of the project is ~25% of the targeted irrigation potential under Bharat Nirman for the entire country. Besides, out of the 4.2m hectares of incremental irrigation potential targeted as part of Bharat Nirman, a third will be from Gujarat.

A mammoth project

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The River Narmada is India's fourth largest, with a length of 1,312km and catchment area of 88,000sq km. Most of the catchment area originates in Madhya Pradesh. The river flows from Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat. The foundation stone of the project was laid in 1961 by Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. According to a water sharing treaty, two-thirds of the water from the Narmada River is to be used by Madhya Pradesh and a third by Gujarat. The Sardar Sarovar project entails 30 major dams and 135 medium dams. The main concrete gravity dam has a height of 121.9 meters and the canal network will span 75,000km. The project also entails a 1,200MW river bed power house and 250MW canal head power house. The estimated cost of the project is US$8.5b at FY09 prices. The main canal dam is the largest concrete dam in the world and has a command area of 8m hectares. The project includes power and drinking water generation as well as water for irrigation. The project involves integration with states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Of the irrigation potential of 1.845m hectares, 75,000 hectares is in Rajasthan. The 1,450MW of power generation is to be shared by Madhya Pradesh (57%), Maharashtra (27%) and Gujarat (16%).
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Ground Reality
Command area of the Sardar Sarovar Project

Benefits: meaningful improvement in agricultural GDP growth, inclusive development

Agriculture GDP growth targeted in Gujarat for the Tenth and Eleventh plans were 4% and 5.5% respectively. But the actual growth over FY01-08 has been 9.6% and compares with all-India growth of 2.7% during this period. This is a meaningful achievement. The increase in agricultural produce attributed to the project is 8.7mt a year, valued at US$430m. The project has provided drinking water to 9,633 villages and 131 towns. More than a million jobs have been created in rural areas. The share of agriculture in electricity consumption in Gujarat declined from 45% in FY01 to 22% now (had increased from 36% in FY97 to 45% in FY01). Power consumption has declined given the increase in the ground water table in the state and the lower requirement of ground water due to availability of water through canals. This led to annual savings of ~70BUs of power consumption. Dropouts in primary schools declined to 2% now from 41% about eight years ago. The project has also partly helped in achieving this due to increased rural incomes and inclusive development.

Project status: largely completed
 The main Narmada canal 

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The main concrete gravity dam of the project is almost complete, with 97% of concreting done. 1,450MW of hydro power capacity has been commissioned and the main canal length of 458km has been completed. About 18,854km of the feeder canal network have been completed and the entire network of 75,000km will be completed by 2012. In the past few months, tenders of Rs40b have been floated and Rs20b projects are yet to be awarded. By October 2010, all tenders are targeted to be awarded. The total project cost is Rs380b, which, including interest costs, amounts to Rs700b. Of the total project cost of Rs380b, Rs280b-290b has been spent. Rs37b was spent in FY10 and targeted spending in FY11 is Rs40b.
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Ground Reality

Gujarat International Finance Tec-City
A city for the next generation
We met the team behind GIFT (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City) to know more about the project and its prospects. GIFT is positioned as an International Finance Center with a strategic location (Gujarat accounts for 30% of India's market cap) and world class infrastructure. The Master Plan for the 62msf project is complete. The initial phase of 4msf is targeted to be completed in 2012. The target segment is core financial services, IT/ITES for financial services and also capital market and trading. IL&FS has signed up as the anchor tenant. Initial rentals are at Rs50-55/sf per month.

An ambitious project to create an international finance center
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Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT) entails development of an international financial center in Ahmedabad, on the left bank of the River Sabarmati. The target segment is core financial services, IT for financial services, ITES for financial services and capital market and trading. The objective is to create a finance center that is globally best in class like La Defense in Paris, Shinjuku in Tokyo, Dockyard in London and Lujiazui in Pudong, China.

GIFT: ambitions to change Ahmedabad's skyline

Why Gujarat?
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It has the highest number of chartered accountants in India. It has an active capital market and a high share in new initial public offers. Gujarat contributes 30% to India's market capitalization. Business acumen of local population. 38% urban population.

The GIFT value proposition

India's financial services sector employs 3m people, constitutes about 5% of the GDP and has an estimated market capitalization of over US$200b. The financial sector could generate about 10m jobs and make a GDP contribution of US$350b-400b by 2020. Several developed countries have established high-tech financial hubs, which, over time have become international financial service centers. They provide suitable regulatory regimes and create a business environment to promote talent and increase capital flow. As they develop they create significant economic value for their domestic economies.
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Ground Reality
Centers like London and New York account for 10% of the GDP and about 5% of jobs. Emerging financial services centers like Singapore and Hong Kong have achieved similar levels of concentration of economic activity over short periods of time. GIFT aspires to a market share of 6-8% in the financial services category. The value proposition of GIFT includes: a globally benchmarked financial centre, strategically located (locally it is near Mumbai, and internationally it is a mid-point between the East and the West), world class infrastructure and scale. To facilitate developers, GUDC has been designated as a single-window area development authority. A separate building code is being written for GIFT.
Employment Opportunities - GIFT
Financial Services Financial Services Operations Financial Services Corporate Centre Select Product Markets Capital Markets and Trading IT for Financial Services Ites for Financial Services Total Est No of Jobs (in 000) in Year 2020 125-150 100-125 10-15 2-4 200-225 75-100 500-600 Source: GIFT

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Target Business Segments
Business Financial Services Financial Services Select Product Market Capital Market and Trading IT Services Ites / BPO Services Nature of Opportunity Back office of Banking, Insurance and Asset Management Companies Corporate roles in financial services companies; Eg Accounting, HR, Admin, IT Private banking, product development, Microfinance, etc Includes DCM, ECM, M&A, Commodity Trading, Private Equity, Hedge Funds, Institutional Brokerage Software Application development and maintenance for BFSI and other verticals Captive BPOs of large global financial services companies, 3rd party BPO service providers, KPO, etc Source: GIFT

Strategically located
The site is located on the banks of the River Sabarmati, about 12km from Ahmedabad International Airport and 8km from Gandhinagar. GIFT will have easy access from all directions through 4-6 lane state and national highways.

Unique Public Private Partnership model

GIFT is an example of a Public Private Partnership model, with Gujarat Urban Development Company (GUDC, Government of Gujarat) owning 50% of shareholding and Infrastructure Leasing and Finance Services (ILFS) owning the remaining 50%. While the government of Gujarat will develop the infrastructure outside the city (in terms of access roads), GIFT will provide infrastructure within the city. The development of real estate within the city (commercial development) will be undertaken by end users/real estate developers.

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Ground Reality World class infrastructure: a zero discharge city

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The project is located 12km from the Ahmedabad airport and will be connected by a metro. The initial announcement pertaining to the metro is expected by the end of CY10. The project aims to provide easily accessible potable water. Internal infrastructure will include metro stations, underground travelators connecting buildings and walk ways. Power requirement is ~1GW, and the objective is to provide 99.999% reliability (which entails outages of 5.3 minutes a year). The project also includes social infrastructure like international school, hotels and hospitals.

Master plan largely complete, ILFS an anchor tenant for initial 7.7msf development

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The master plan for the basic structure of the buildings in the city is largely complete and development will be on planned lines. GIFT has spent ~Rs1.5b-2b on initial expenses towards the master plan. The land is in possession and a large part of the area has been fenced. Most of the clearances, including environment and height, have been received. ILFS will develop two packages initially with planned development of 7.7msf. The foundation stone is expected to be laid over 1-2 quarters and the initial phase of 4msf is targeted to be complete by the end of 2012. Estimated lease rentals in Phase 1 are Rs50-55/sq ft per month.
The skyline along the waterfront is expected to follow a profile depicted with limited fluctuation

GIFT: Skyline of artistically designed high rises

Project details

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Land allocated for the project is 663 acres, entailing development of 62msf (plus 12msf below the ground). Of this, 250 acres is earmarked for SEZs and the balance will be for domestic operations. The working population in the city is estimated at 500,000, and the residential population is estimated at 15,000. In terms of development, 67% of the space is targeted at commercial, 23% residential and 10% for social infrastructure. Thus, GIFT will predominantly target the office segment. The surrounding areas for development include the GIFT influence zone of 3,000 acres and integrated development zones of 27,000 acres, which will provide residential facilities. Phase 1 will entail development of 10msf over 2010-13, phase 2 will entail development of 22msf over 2012-16 and phase 3 will entail development of 30msf over 2016-20. Phase 1 spending is estimated at Rs10b in terms of basic infrastructure and Rs30b for real estate development.

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Ground Reality Landmark structures
Convention Center: It has several halls, auditorium and an opera hall with seating capacity of more than 10,000. Its design is inspired by salt crystals and the Dandi March. It will also have eight museums showcasing the history, art, culture and socio-economic life of Gujarat. Transport Node: The transport node is the urban hub of the city. The complex is designed with hotels, malls, theaters, food streets and multidimensional transport stations. The River Front Development: Designed for entertainment, the river front will be dotted with restaurants, craft bazaars and leisure activities, offering fun and relaxation in a serene ambience.

The Gateway Towers: The tall archways of the Gateway Towers frame the majestic Diamond Tower. Astride the main avenue of the city, the Gateway Towers have elaborate terrace gardens and a rooftop restaurant. The Gateway Towers draw this design inspiration from Buland Darwaja and herald India's arrival in the new millennium.

Diamond Tower: The tallest tower is located on Fortune Island. The tower symbolizes Gujarat's flourishing diamond industry and has been designed to portray elegant edges of diamond facets, with each floor of the tower being different, yet forming a large diamond.

The Crystal Towers: The glowing crystals are one of the most stunning buildings of the city's skyline. Synonymous with their names, the four office Crystal Towers have beautiful terraced gardens and offer spectacular views of Dream River, Diamond Tower and the Convention Center.

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Ground Reality

For more copies or other information, contact Institutional: Navin Agarwal. Retail: Manish Shah Phone: (91-22) 39825500 Fax: (91-22) 22885038. E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com

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