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MASON-DIXON® FLORIDA POLL

FEBRUARY 2018
2018 SENATE RACE

EMBARGO: Newspaper Publication - Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Broadcast & Internet Release - 6 am. Wednesday, February 7, 2018

© Copyright 2018

Tracking public opinion in Florida since 1984

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
NO CHANGE IN FLORIDA SENATE RACE
NELSON HOLDS INSIGNIFICANT 1-POINT LEAD OVER SCOTT

The potential Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and term-
limited Republican Governor Rick Scott has remained static over the last four
months. Statewide, Nelson holds a narrow 45%-44% lead over Scott, not
significantly different than the 44%-44% tie posted in October.

2018 SENATE RACE

11%
45%
NELSON
SCOTT
44%
UNDECIDED

The change in support for each candidate over the past year – Nelson -1% and
Scott +3% – falls within the combined margin for error of all three Mason-Dixon
Florida polls.

2018 SENATE RACE NELSON SCOTT UND

February 2017 46% 41% 13%
October 2017 44% 44% 12%
February 2018 45% 44% 11%

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
Demographically, there has also been little change. Nelson remains ahead among
Democrats (81%-9%), women (51%-37%), blacks (83%-6%) and Hispanics (56%-
34%). Scott still has the advantage with Republicans (84%-4%), men (52%-39%)
and whites (55%-34%). Those with no party affiliation continue to lean for Scott
(49%-38%).

Nelson still has a large lead in Southeast Florida (61%-28%), but Scott continues to
hold wide margins in North Florida (58%-32%) and Southwest Florida (56%-35%).
The decisive “I-4 corridor” is divided within itself -- Scott leads in the Central
Florida region (47%-41%), but Nelson has moved ahead in Tampa Bay (46%-41%).

Scott continues to be viewed favorably by more state voters than Nelson (42%-
37%), but also still has more voters who view him unfavorably (32%-24%).

120%

100% 3%
12%
23%
80%
27% DON'T RECOGNIZE
60% NEUTRAL
32%
24% UNFAVORABLE
40%
FAVORABLE

20% 42% 37%

0%
SCOTT NAME ID NELSON NAME ID

With opinion of President Donald Trump in Florida still about as evenly split as it
was on Election Day 2016 -- 44% favorable/45% unfavorable -- all signs point to a
fierce contest. With such little movement over the course of a year, particularly
given the strong level of partisanship within Congress and the divisiveness among
voters in their views of President Trump, this race may be destined to become the
bellwether contest of the country.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

Do you recognize the name ________?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE

Rick Scott 42% 32% 23% 3%

Bill Nelson 37% 24% 27% 12%

Donald Trump 44% 45% 11% -

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
QUESTION: If the 2018 election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat were held today,
for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Nelson, the Democrat and
Rick Scott, the Republican?

NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

STATE 45% 44% 11%

REGION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

North Florida 32% 58% 10%
Central Florida 41% 47% 12%
Tampa Bay 46% 41% 13%
Southwest Florida 35% 56% 9%
Southeast Florida 61% 28% 11%

SEX NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

Men 39% 52% 9%
Women 51% 37% 12%

AGE NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

18-34 54% 31% 15%
35-49 46% 44% 10%
50-64 42% 47% 11%
65+ 42% 48% 10%

RACE/ETHNICITY NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

White 34% 55% 11%
Black 83% 6% 11%
Hispanic 56% 34% 10%

PARTY REGISTRATION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

Democrat 81% 9% 10%
Republican 4% 84% 12%
Independent 38% 49% 13%

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville,
Florida from January 30 through February 1, 2018. A total of 625 registered
Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter
registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas
were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is
no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent
probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were
surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or
age grouping.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
DEMOGRAPHICS

PARTY REGISTRATION:

Democrat 256 (41%)
Republican 243 (39%)
Independent or Other 126 (20%)

AGE:
18-34 102 (16%)
35-49 153 (24%)
50-64 187 (30%)
65+ 179 (29%)
Refused 4 (1%)

RACE/ETHNICITY:
White/Caucasian 414 (66%)
Black/African American 85 (14%)
Hispanic or Cuban 107 (17%)
Other 12 (2%)
Refused 7 (1%)

SEX:
Male 293 (47%)
Female 332 (53%)

REGION:
North Florida 135 (22%)
Central Florida 120 (19%)
Tampa Bay 115 (18%)
Southwest Florida 75 (12%)
Southeast Florida 180 (29%)

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll
FLORIDA POLL REGIONS

NORTH FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay,
Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Walton, Washington, Holmes, Jackson, Gadsden,
Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Baker,
Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, St, Johns, Flagler, Union,
Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist and Levy counties.

CENTRAL FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange,
Osceola, Seminole, Citrus, Sumter, Volusia, and Indian River counties.

TAMPA BAY: Voters interviewed in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and
Polk counties.

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry,
Highlands, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties.

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm
Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – February 2018 Florida Poll