You are on page 1of 120

energy

[r]evolution
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK FOR CANADA

EUROPEAN RENEWABLE
ENERGY COUNCIL

report 3rd edition 2010 canada energy scenario


Greenpeace International, project manager & lead author research & co-authors
European Renewable Sven Teske, Greenpeace International DLR, Institute of Technical
Energy Council (EREC) Thermodynamics, Department of
EREC Christine Lins Systems Analysis and Technology
date August 2010 Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany:
Greenpeace International
Sven Teske Dr. Wolfram Krewitt (†),Dr. Thomas
Pregger, Dr. Sonja Simon, Dr. Tobias
partners Greenpeace Canada
Dave Martin, Keith Stewart
Naegler. DLR, Institute of Vehicle

image THE INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR REINDEER DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND AND THEY DO NOT OVER FISH THE LAKES.
THE YAMAL PENINSULA IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.

2
“will we look into the eyes
of our children and confess
that we had the opportunity,
but lacked the courage?
that we had the technology,
but lacked the vision?”

© GREENPEACE/WILL ROSE

Concepts, Stuttgart, Germany: Dr. editor Crispin Aubrey contact sven.teske@greenpeace.org,


Stephan Schmid Ecofys BV, Utrecht, dave.martin@greenpeace.org,
The Netherlands: Wina Graus, Eliane printing PrimaveraQuint, lins@erec.org
Blomen. Greenhouse Development the Netherlands,
Rights (Chapter 2.3) EcoEquity, Paul www.primaveraquint.nl
Baer, Assistant Professor, School design & layout onehemisphere,
of Public Policy, Georgia Institute Sweden, www.onehemisphere.se
of Technology, Atlanta, USA.

for further information about the global, regional and national scenarios please visit the energy [r]evolution website: www.energyblueprint.info/
Published by Greenpeace International and EREC. (GPI reference number JN 330). Printed on 100% post consumer recycled chlorine-free paper.

3
foreword

Energy [r]evolution is the Yet Canada’s response to this


central challenge of our threat remains tepid. Why? Two
time. Our response to that core assumptions inform energy
challenge will define our debate in North America. Both hold
character, shape our us back from the necessary energy
economy, and to a large [r]evolution, and both are wrong.
extent determine our future.
First, some worry clean energy
The year 2010 will be cannot power our economy. The
remembered for the fear is that while we might safely
biggest environmental dabble in renewables, really
disaster in history to date. kicking our fossil fuel habit would
The larger lesson of the bring about silent factories and
British Petroleum (BP) oil flickering lights. That view is
spill in the Gulf of Mexico mistaken. Clean energy is fully
is that we can no longer able to power our civilization—
assume a comfortable, but only if we commit financial
controlling relationship resources comparable to those we
with nature. Climate have invested in fossil fuels.
change extends that idea. That scale is enormous.
The science is clear: we
Second, some argue that
must engineer a quick
committing to clean energy at
reduction of carbon
that scale will bankrupt us.
emissions to avoid some
This view is also incorrect. In
very frightening climate
fact, even ignoring its finite
change impacts.
nature, fossil fuel is the economic
threat. The Stern Report (The
Economics of Climate Change:
The Stern Review, Cambridge
University Press, 2006) firmly
established that energy
[r]evolution is an economic
necessity. Action to reduce carbon
emissions is insurance against
the economic turmoil that
accompanies a turbulent
and warming climate.

4
But further, I believe clean energy is this century’s central economic But the single greatest barrier we face is psychological, and an
opportunity. It is, in the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, accompanying institutional lethargy. Not only must we understand
the “third industrial revolution.” Without smart policy and clear that a clean economy is possible, we must commit ourselves to it
thinking, Canada will miss this opportunity. quickly, and fully. We cannot do tomorrow what we did yesterday.
We cannot assume things will be ok if we avoid rocking the boat,
What might the energy [r]evolution look like?
if we stay our present course. We need, collectively, to wake up.
We start with efficiency: our economic output per unit of energy can
Much of the world now understands that the energy [r]evolution is
easily double with smart energy use. Then we build an Energy
inevitable, since we have no real choice in the matter. What remains
Internet—a massively interconnected, continent-wide grid supplied by a
to be seen is if it happens on our terms, and our timeline—or on
mix of widely-distributed clean energy sources.
those dictated by an ever-more unstable climate.
What energy sources? Giant solar thermal plants with storage tanks.
The question that faces Canada is not “will we participate?” but
Solar electricity (photovoltaics) will follow a cost-reduction curve
“how?” Will Canada be a net buyer or seller of clean technology?
similar to the microchip. Wind farms across the continent can be
Putting policies in place to seed, support and grow our clean-tech
connected together to provide a stable resource. Hydro remains a
industries is the single smartest action our federal government can take.
powerhouse. Tidal and biomass will contribute. Grid storage includes
compressed air in caverns and underwater, low-friction flywheels, These are final innings in the climate fight. For some, that is reason
electric vehicles and pumped hydro. not to try. Some still find reason to delay. But this task is neither
optional nor leisurely.
The game-changer is enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs): the art
of drilling and fracturing the hot dry rock that lies everywhere deep
beneath our feet. Instead of drilling for oil at sea, or fracturing rock
Tom Rand
for shale gas, we can mine enough heat from the earth to power our
CLEANTECH LEAD ADVISOR, MARS DISCOVERY DISTRICT
civilization many times over.
AUTHOR, KICK THE FOSSIL FUEL HABIT: 10 CLEAN
So the energy [r]evolution is possible. This document is a detailed and TECHNOLOGIES TO SAVE OUR WORLD
comprehensive plan to get there. But this revolution is also the biggest DIRECTOR, VCI GREEN FUNDS
challenge modern humans have ever faced. It will take unprecedented AUGUST 2010
levels of capital, international co-operation, and political will.
We cannot wait for the free market. We must intervene in a strong,
cohesive and intelligent way. For each economic barrier, there is a
policy tool. Companies are willing to play smart, but need clear,
long-term signals to commit.
It remains cheap to burn coal. It is still profitable to melt tar for oil.
We need to respond with a strong and rising price on carbon.
The energy of the sun, earth and wind is free, but the equipment to
capture it is not. To lower the cost of clean energy, we need to lower the
cost of capital. But debt financing is allergic to technology risk; bankers
back the old, not the new. We break this barrier with government-backed
Green Bonds, loan guarantees and progressive feed-in tariffs.
© © FALLSVIEW / DREAMSTIME.COM

A ROW OF WINDMILLS AT DUSK IN PINCHER CREEK, ALBERTA, CANADA. THESE WIND TURBINES MAKE PINCHER CREEK THE WIND ENERGY CAPITAL OF CANADA. 5
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

contents

foreword 4 5.5.7 hydro power 59


5.5.8 summary of renewable energy cost development 60
introduction 8 5.5.9 assumed growth rates in different scenarios 61
executive summary 10
6 key results: the canadian energy [r]evolution 66

1 climate protection & energy policy 16 6.1 canadian energy demand to 2050 67
6.2 electricity generation 68
1.1 the kyoto protocol 18 6.3 future costs of electricity generation 69
1.2 international energy policy 18 6.4 future employment 70
1.3 renewable energy targets 18 6.5 heating and cooling supply 70
1.4 policy changes in the energy sector 19 6.6 transportation 71
6.7 canada’s CO2 emissions 72
6.8 canada’s primary energy consumption 72
2 implementing the energy [r]evolution 20
6.9 future investment 73
2.1 canadian policy issues 21 6.9.1 investment in new power plants 73
2.1.1 canada: an energy superpower? 21 6.9.2 fossil fuel power generation investment 74
2.1.2 a superpower without sovereignty? 22 6.9.3 fuel cost savings with renewable energy 74
2.1.3 a national energy strategy for canada:
energy [r]evolution or status quo? 23
2.1.4 energy [r]evolution and the tar sands 24 7 energy resources and security of supply 76
2.2 ftsm: a support scheme for renewable power
in developing countries 26 7.1 oil 77
2.2.1 bankable renewable energy support schemes 26 7.1.1 the reserves chaos 77
2.2.2 the feed-in tariff suppor mechanism 27 7.1.2 non-conventional oil reserves 77
2.2.3 financing the energy [r]evolution with ftsm 28 7.2 gas 77
2.2 ftsm: a support scheme for renewable power in 7.2.1 shale gas 78
2.3 the greenhouse development rights framework 30 7.3 coal 78
2.3.1 calculating greenhouse gas emissions under the 7.4 nuclear 78
greenhouse development rights framework 30 7.5 renewable energy 79
2.3.2 applying gdr to the energy [r]evolution scenarios 33 7.5.1 the global potential for sustainable biomass 89

nuclear power and climate protection 35 8 energy technologies 94


3
3.1 a false solution to climate protection 36 8.1 fossil fuel technologies 95
3.2 nuclear power blocks solutions 37 8.1.1 coal combustion technologies 95
3.3 the dangers of nuclear power 37 8.1.2 gas combustion technologies 95
3.3.1 nuclear proliferation 37 8.1.3 carbon reduction technologies 95
3.3.2 nuclear waste 38 8.1.4 carbon dioxide storage 96
3.3.3 safety risks 38 8.2 nuclear technologies 97
8.2.1 nuclear reactor designs: evolution and safety issues 97
8.3 renewable energy technologies 98
4 the energy [r]evolution 40 8.3.1 solar power (photovoltaics) 98
8.3.2 concentrating solar power (CSP) 99
4.1 key principles 41 8.3.3 solar thermal collectors 100
4.2 from principles to practice 42 8.3.4 wind power 100
4.2.1 a development pathway 42 8.3.5 biomass energy 101
4.3 new business model 44 8.3.6 geothermal energy 103
4.4 the new electricity grid 46 8.3.7 hydro power 103
4.5 hybrid systems 48 8.3.8 ocean energy 104
4.6 smart grids 48
4.7 the super grid 51
9 climate and energy policy recommendations 105

5 scenarios for a future energy supply 52 9.1 climate policy 106


9.2 energy policy and market regulation 108
5.1 scenarios background 53 9.3 targets and incentives for renewables 108
5.2 oil and gas price projections 54 9.3.1 fixed price systems 109
5.3 cost of CO2 emissions 54 9.3.2 renewables quota systems 110
5.4 cost projections for efficient fossil fuel generation 9.4 renewables for heating and cooling 110
and carbon capture and storage (CCS) 55 9.5 energy efficiency and innovation 111
5.5 cost projections for renewable energy technologies 56 9.5.1 appliances and lighting 111
5.5.1 photovoltaics 56 9.5.2 buildings 112
5.5.2 concentrating solar power 57 9.5.3 transport 112
5.5.3 wind power 57
5.5.4 biomass 58
5.5.5 geothermal 58 10 glossary & appendix 113
5.5.6 ocean energy 59

6
image GREENPEACE AND AN INDEPENDENT NASA-
FUNDED SCIENTIST COMPLETED MEASUREMENTS OF
MELT LAKES ON THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET THAT SHOW

© GP/NICK COBBING
ITS VULNERABILITY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES.

list of figures list of tables

figure 0.1 development of primary energy consumption in table 2.1 assumptions for ftsm calculations 28
canada (in PJ/a) to 2050, under three scenarios 15 table 2.2 ftsm key parameters - energy [r]evolution 29
figure 2.1 global demand for oil under four scenarios 25 table 2.3 ftsm key parameters - adv energy [r]evolution 29
figure 2.2 ftsm scheme 26 table 2.4 ftsm programme 29
figure 2.3 feed-in tariffs versus conventional power generation 27 table 2.5 renewable power for non-oecd countries
figure 2.4 emission reduction wedges under the energy under the ftsm programme 30
[r]evolution scenario 31 table 2.6 GDR factors and RCIs for IEA regions and select
figure 2.5 emission reduction wedges under the advanced countries, for 2010, 2020 and 2030 31
energy [r]evolution scenario 31 table 2.7 greenhouse development rights framework
figure 2.6 annual GHG emissions and reduction (GDR) applied to the energy
pathways under the GDR, for the european [r]evolution scenario 34
union, us, china and india 32 table 2.8 greenhouse development rights framework
figure 3.1 new reactor construction starts in past six years 37 (GDR) applied to the energy
figure 3.2 the nuclear fuel chain 39 [r]evolution scenario 34
figure 4.1 energy loss, by centralized generation systems 42 table 4.1 power plant value chain 44
figure 4.2 a decentralized energy future 43 table 4.2 utilities today 44
figure 4.3 overview of the future power system with table 5.1 development projections for fossil fuel prices,
high penetration of renewables 47 in CA$2008 54
figure 4.4 the smart-grid vision for the enery [r]evolution 50 table 5.2 assumptions on CO2 emissions cost
figure 5.1 future development of investment costs development (CA$/tCO2) 54
(normalized to current cost levels) for table 5.3 d of efficiency and investment costs
renewable energy technologies 60 for selected new power plant technologies 55
figure 5.2 expected development of electricity generation table 5.4 generation from photovoltaics, 2007–2050 56
costs from fossil fuel and renewable options table 5.5 generation from concentrating solar power,
example for oecd north america 60 2007–2050 57
figure 6.1 projection of energy demand in canada to 2050, table 5.6 generation from wind power, 2007–2050 57
by sector, under three scenarios 67 table 5.7 generation from biomass, 2007–2050 58
figure 6.2 development of electricity demand in canada to table 5.8 generation from geothermal, 2007–2050 58
2050, by sector, under three scenarios 68 table 5.9 generation from ocean energy, 2007–2050 59
figure 6.3 development of heat demand in canada to 2050, table 5.10 generation from hydro, 2007–2050 59
by sector, under three scenarios 68 table 5.11 assumed annual average growth rates
figure 6.4 development of electricity generation for renewable energy technologies 61
(in TWh/a) structure in canada to 2050, table 6.1 projection of renewable electricity capacity
under three scenarios 69 (in GW) in canada, under both energy
figure 6.5 development total electricity generation costs [r]evolution scenarios 68
($billion/a) & development of specific electricity table 6.2 employment and investment in canada to 2030,
generation costs (cents/kWh), to 2050, under under three scenarios 70
three scenarios 69
table 6.3 investment costs and fuel savings in the
figure 6.6 heating and cooling supply (in PJ/a) in canada, three scenarios 75
to 2050, under three scenarios 71
table 7.1 overview of known worldwide fossil fuel
figure 6.7 energy (PJ/a) for transportation in canada, reserves and resources 78
to 2050, under three scenarios 72
table 7.2 assumptions on fossil fuel use in the reference
figure 6.8 development of CO2 emissions in canada and energy [r]evolution scenarios 79
to 2050, by sector, under the energy
table 7.3 technical potential per renewable energy
[r]evolution scenarios 72
technology, for 2020, 2030 and 2050 89
figure 6.9 development of primary energy consumption in
table 9.1 new renewables built or contracted, in ontario,
canada (in PJ/a) to 2050, under three scenarios 72
as of june 2010 110
figure 6.10 investment shares: reference scenario vs.
energy [r]evolution scenarios 72
figure 6.11 change in cumulative power plant investment
in both energy [r]evolution scenarios 72
figure 6.12 renewable energy investment costs in
canada, 2007–2050 74
figure 7.1 energy resources of the world 88
figure 8.1 photovoltaics technology 98
figure 8.2 csp technologies: parabolic trough, central
receiver/solar tower and parabolic dish 99
figure 8.3 flat panel solar technology 100
figure 8.4 wind turbine 101
figure 8.5 biomass power plant 101
figure 8.6 geothermal power plant 103
figure 8.7 hydro power plant 103

7
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

introduction
“FOR THE SAKE OF A SOUND ENVIRONMENT, POLITICAL STABILITY AND THRIVING ECONOMIES, NOW IS THE TIME TO COMMIT
TO A TRULY SECURE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE.”

© GP/HU WEI
image A WORKER ENTERS A TURBINE TOWER FOR MAINTENANCE AT DABANCHENG WIND FARM. CHINA’S BEST WIND RESOURCES ARE MADE POSSIBLE BY THE NATURAL BREACH IN
TIANSHAN (TIAN MOUNTAIN).

Energy policy has a dramatic impact across the social, political and what’s possible in terms of energy supply strategies for the future and
economic spectrum. Governments and businesses must focus on the fact how to develop a sustainable energy and climate policy.
that energy is the lifeblood of the economy. For scientists, the crucial
Access to energy is of strategic importance for every country in the
matter is the threat of climate change brought about by burning fossil
world. Over the past few years oil prices have gone up and down like a
fuels. NGO’s concentrate on the environmental and social impacts, and
rollercoaster, jumping to a record high in July 2008 of $147.27 and
economists on the potential of a shift in the way our energy is produced.
then falling back again to $33.87 in December. Even so, over the
For engineers, the task is developing new technologies to supply and
whole of 2009 the average oil price was still between $60 and $80
consume energy in a smarter way. But at the end of the day, we are all
per barrel. At the same time, with gas prices in Europe rising in line
consumers and we all must deal with the full reality of our energy
with the price of oil, the impact on both the heating and power
system—from volatile prices to oil spills. Access to sufficient energy is
sectors has been huge.
vital to making our economies work but at the same time, our demand
for energy has become the main source of the greenhouse gas emissions Security of energy supply is not only influenced by the cost of fuels,
that put our climate at risk. Something needs to change. however, but by their long term physical availability. Countries without
their own fossil fuel supplies have increasingly shown interest in
While the last climate change summit in Copenhagen failed to produce
renewable energy sources, not only because of the price stability this
an agreement, international negotiations to address the issue remain
brings but because they are indigenous and locally produced.
high on the political agenda. At the same time, highly volatile fossil fuel
prices are creating more and more uncertainty for the global economy, Renewable energy technologies produce little or no greenhouse gases
creating an indirect incentive for investing in renewable energy and rely on virtually inexhaustible natural elements for their 'fuel'.
technologies, which are now booming. Against this backdrop, the third Some of these technologies are already competitive. The wind power
edition of the Energy [R]evolution analysis takes a deep plunge into industry, for example, has continued its explosive growth in the face of

8
image NORTH HOYLE WIND FARM,
UK’S FIRST WIND FARM IN THE IRISH

© ANTHONY UPTON 2003


SEA WHICH WILL SUPPLY 50,000 HOMES
WITH POWER.

a global recession and a financial crisis and is a testament to the reduction in energy related CO2 emissions by 2050 might not be
inherent attractiveness of renewable technology. enough to keep the global mean temperature rise below +2°C.
In 2009 the total level of annual investment in clean energy was An even greater reduction may be needed if runaway climate change
$145 billion, only a 6.5% drop from the record previous year, while is to be avoided.
the global wind power market grew by an annual 41.5%. In the US
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has changed five
alone, the wind industry grew by nearly 40%. The renewable energy
parameters compared to the basic version. These mean that the
industry now employs around two million people worldwide and has
economic lifetime of coal power stations has been reduced from 40 to
become a major feature of national industrial development plans. In
20 years, the growth rate of renewables has taken the advanced
the US, wind already employs more people than coal. Meanwhile, the
projections of the renewable industry into account, the use of electric
economics of renewables are expected to further improve as they
drives in the transport sector will take off ten years earlier, the
develop technically, and as the price of fossil fuels continues to rise
expansion of smart grids will happen quicker, and last but not least,
and as their saving of carbon dioxide emissions is given a monetary
the expansion of fossil fuel based energy will stop after 2015.
value. These cost comparisons, already favorable to renewables, don’t
even account for the massive externalized costs of fossil fuels such as A drastic reduction in CO2 levels and a share of over 80% renewables
the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. in the world energy supply are both possible goals by 2050. Of course
this will be a technical challenge, but the main obstacle is political. We
Despite the small drop in fossil fuel emissions in the industrialized
need to kick start the Energy [R]evolution with long lasting reliable
world as a result of the economic crisis, globally the level of energy
policy decisions within the next few years.
related carbon dioxide continues to grow. This means that a recovered
It took more than a decade to make politicians aware of the climate
economy will result in increasing CO2 emissions once again, further
crisis; we do not have another decade to agree on the changes needed
contributing to the greenhouse gases which threaten our planet. A
in the energy sector. Greenpeace and the renewables industry present
shift in energy policy is needed so that a growing economy and
the Energy [R]evolution scenario as a practical but ambitious blueprint.
reduced CO2 emissions can go hand in hand. The Energy [R]evolution
For the sake of a sound environment, political stability and thriving
analysis shows how this is possible.
economies, now is the time to commit to a truly secure and sustainable
Although the Copenhagen climate change conference at the end energy future – a future built on energy efficiency and renewable
of 2009 was a huge disappointment, it should not lead to a feeling energy, economic development and the creation of millions of new jobs
that nothing can happen. A change in energy policy has to be for the next generation.
connected to a change of climate policy. The United Nations
(UNFCCC) climate talks therefore still remain central to the survival
of our planet and a global regime for CO2 reduction. Placing a price
on carbon, as well as a long term agreement on CO2 reduction, are
both of vital importance for the uptake of renewables and energy Christine Lins Dave Martin
efficiency. The achievement of a new ‘fair, ambitious and legally SECRETARY GENERAL CLIMATE &
binding’ (FAB) deal relies fundamentally on legally binding emissions EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY CAMPAIGN
reduction obligations, on common guidelines for accounting rules, on ENERGY COUNCIL (EREC) GREENPEACE CANADA
a compliance regime and on agreed carbon trading mechanisms. AUGUST 2010

energy [r]evolution 2010


This is the third edition of the global Energy [R]evolution scenario
since the first one was published in January 2007, each analysis Sven Teske
deeper than the last. In the second edition we introduced specific CLIMATE & ENERGY UNIT
research for the transport sector and an investigation of the pathway GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
to future investment in renewable energies. Since then we have
published country-specific scenarios for over 30 countries and regions,
added a study of the employment implications of the scenarios and a
detailed examination of how the grid network needs to be improved
and adapted.
This new edition has broken fresh ground again. The 2010 Energy
[R]evolution not only includes the financial analysis and employment
calculations in parallel with the basic projections,
we have also added a second, more ambitious Energy [R]evolution
scenario. This was considered vital because rapid improvements
in climate science made it clear during 2009 that a global 50%
9
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

executive summary
“AT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE WAY THAT ENERGY IS PRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED AND CONSUMED.”

© GREENPEACE/MARKEL REDONDO
image THE PS10 CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT IN SEVILLA, SPAIN. THE 11 MEGAWATT SOLAR POWER TOWER PRODUCES ELECTRICITY WITH 624 LARGE MOVABLE MIRRORS
CALLED HELIOSTATS. THE SOLAR RADIATION, MIRROR DESIGN PLANT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 23 GWH OF ELECTRICITY WHICH IS ENOUGH TO SUPPLY POWER TO A POPULATION OF 10,000.

canada: energy superpower or energy [r]evolution? uranium to transform Canada into an “Energy Superpower.” In this
vision, Canada’s economic future and global stature would be anchored
Canada is the fifth-largest producer of energy on the planet,
in what Prime Minister Harper has called “an ocean of oil-soaked
with an unparalleled wealth of both renewable and non-renewable
sand.”2 The rapid expansion of tar sands operations in the boreal forest
energy resources, including the second-largest proven reserve of oil in
of northern Alberta are at the heart of this strategy, but it also includes
the world.1
the expansion of the oil and gas frontier into the Arctic, the seas off the
After years of conflict over climate policy and the development of British Columbia and Atlantic coasts, and the waters of the Great Lakes
energy infrastructure, there is now wide-spread agreement amongst and the St. Laurence River as well. It also includes sale of Canada’s
the key policy players that Canada needs a national energy strategy uranium resources and nuclear technology. The federal and Alberta
that is based on a vision of what our energy future looks like, and governments are aggressively supporting this vision through public
implemented through a coherent set of policies at the federal, subsidies and policy reforms, and oil companies are investing billions of
provincial and even municipal levels to guide the public and the dollars into making it a reality. Even in Quebec, which of all the
private investment required to realize this future. provinces could most readily become fossil energy–free, the government
is now seriously considering embarking on oil and gas extraction.
At present, there are two clear visions of what this energy strategy
should look like: Energy Superpower, or Energy [R]evolution. The Yet the International Energy Agency’s own analysis shows that these
choice between them needs to be made through an informed public resources are only needed in, and indeed would contribute to creating,
debate rather than through back-room lobbying, as Canada’s energy a world suffering from “massive climatic change and irreparable
strategy will be a defining feature of our nation’s economic, social, harm to the planet.”
and environmental future.
references
In support of the first vision, the Harper government and the corporate 1 NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA, ECONOMIC SCAN OF CANADA’S ENERGY SECTOR, 2008.
energy lobby would use our abundant reserves of oil, gas, coal and 2 STEPHEN HARPER, “ADDRESS BY THE PRIME MINISTER AT THE CANADA-UK CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE,” 14 JULY 2006, AVAILABLE AT <HTTP://PM.GC.CA/ENG/MEDIA.ASP?ID=1247>.

10
image WELDER WORKING AT VESTAS
WIND TURBINE FACTORY,
CAMPBELLTOWN, SCOTLAND.

© KATE DAVISON/GP
To become this kind of an Energy Superpower would come at the cost of In the worst case, the Copenhagen Accord pledges could even permit
ecological destruction on a scale that would undermine the ability of future emission allowances to exceed a “business as usual” projection. In
generations to enjoy a decent quality of life. If we wish to protect the planet order to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, the
for our children, the only alternative is to change our relationship to energy. global temperature increase must be kept as far below 2°C as
possible. This is still possible, but time is running out. To stay within
Greenpeace has proposed a global Energy [R]evolution scenario,
this limit, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to peak by 2015
developed for Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy
and decline rapidly after that, reaching as close to zero as possible by
Council,3 that provides a practical blueprint for the world’s renewable
the middle of the 21st century.
energy future. It shows how we can phase out fossil fuels, cut CO2
emissions while ensuring energy security, bring energy to an extra two Keeping the global temperature increase to 2°C is often referred to as
billion people who currently have no access to electricity, and create a “safe level” of warming, but this does not reflect the reality of the
millions of green-collar jobs. latest science. This science shows that a warming of 2°C above pre-
industrial levels would pose unacceptable risks to many of the world’s
The Greenpeace Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario shows how,
key natural and human systems. Even with a warming of 1.5°C, many
by 2050, renewable energy sources could provide 96% of the
regions of the world are expected to experience increases in drought,
electricity produced in Canada and 92% of our total heating demand,
heat waves and floods, along with other adverse impacts such as
accounting for 74% of our overall primary energy demand. The
increased water stress for up to 1.7 billion people, wildfire frequency
blueprint would create about 72,000 jobs in the renewables sector
and flood risks. Neither does staying below 2°C in warming rule out
alone, by 2030. The total fuel cost savings in the Advanced Energy
large-scale disasters such as melting ice sheets. Partial de-glaciation
[R]evolution scenario described could reach a total of $228 billion, or
of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could even occur from
$5.3 billion per year.
additional warming within a range of 0.8–3.8°C above current levels.6
Canada can join the Energy [R]evolution by promoting efficiency and
renewable energy, and phasing out energy derived from coal, nuclear,
climate change and security of supply
and oil. The sustainable future of the planet will not be brought about
by further subsidizing of dirty and finite fossil fuels, but by investment Spurred by recent rapidly fluctuating oil prices, security of supply is now
in people and local communities who can install and maintain at the top of the energy policy agenda. One reason for price fluctuations
renewable energy sources. is that all proven resources of oil, gas and coal are becoming scarcer and
more expensive to produce. So-called “non-conventional” resources such
The Energy [R]evolution has already started in Canada. The provinces
as the Canadian tar sands have become economical, with devastating
of British Columbia and Quebec have already put a price on carbon.
consequences for the environment. The days of “cheap oil and gas” are
The Green Energy Act in Ontario has established a system of feed-in
coming to an end. Uranium, the fuel for nuclear power, is also a finite
tariffs and improved grid access for renewable energy along the lines
resource. This report demonstrates that, by contrast, the global technical
called for in this report. In the first six months of 2010, commitments
potential for renewable energy can supply about six times more power
were made to over $18 billion of renewable energy projects. By 2015,
than the world currently consumes—forever.
these 800 projects will be generating over 7,750 megawatts of power
and 16 terawatt hours of electricity annually, or roughly 11% of Renewable energy technologies vary widely in their technical and
current electricity consumption in Ontario. economic maturity, but a range of sources offers increasingly attractive
options. These include wind, photovoltaics (PV), solar thermal,
geothermal, ocean, sustainable biomass and low-impact hydroelectric
a safe level of warming?
power. They produce little or no greenhouse gases, and rely on virtually
Climate change, caused by rising global temperatures, is the most inexhaustible natural elements for their “fuel.” Some of these
significant environmental challenge facing the world at the beginning of technologies are already competitive. The wind power industry, for
the 21st century. It has major implications for the world’s social and example, continued its explosive growth in the face of a global recession
economic stability, its natural resources and in particular, the way we and a financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 and is a testament to the
produce our energy. The December 2009 Copenhagen Accord, aims to inherent attractiveness of renewable technology.
keep the global average temperature increase below 2°C, and then
consider a 1.5°C limit by 2015. However, the reduction pledges
submitted by various parties to the United Nations Framework references
3 THE NATIONAL REPORT FOR CANADA HEREIN IS A COMPANION TO THE GLOBAL REPORT
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in the first half of 2010 are ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK (EREC/GREENPEACE
likely to lead to a world with global emissions of between 47.9 and 53.6 2010), WHICH CONTAINS ADDITIONAL DETAIL ON SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS, DATA AND
MODELING. IT IS AVAILABLE AT <HTTP://WWW.ENERGYBLUEPRINT.INFO>.
gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2020. This is about 4 JOERI ROGELJ ET AL., COPENHAGEN ACCORD PLEDGES ARE PALTRY, NATURE 464:
10–20% higher than today’s levels. The greenhouse gas reduction 1126–1128, 22 APRIL 2010.
5 W. L. HARE, A SAFE LANDING FOR THE CLIMATE, STATE OF THE WORLD, WORLDWATCH
commitment for 2020 submitted by Canada to the Copenhagen Accord INSTITUTE, 2009.
was even weaker than its previous greenhouse gas reduction 6 JOEL B. SMITH ET AL., ASSESSING DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH AN UPDATE OF
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) “REASONS FOR CONCERN,”
commitment, and wouldn’t even achieve the level committed to by PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, PUBLISHED ONLINE 26 FEBRUARY
Canada for the 2008–2012 period, under the Kyoto Protocol. 2009: <HTTP://WWW.PNAS.ORG/CONTENT/EARLY/2009/02/25/0812355106.FULL.PDF>.

11
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

According to the United Nations Environment Program, and Bloomberg conversion and distribution. Investments in “climate infrastructure”—
New Energy Finance, global investment in sustainable energy was US such as “smart” interactive grids, as well as super grids to transport
$162 billion in 2009, and for the second year in a row, investments in large quantities of offshore wind and concentrating solar power—are
sustainable energy exceeded investments in new fossil capacity.7 The essential. Building up clusters of renewable micro-grids, especially for
global wind industry defied the economic downturn and saw its annual people living in remote areas, will be a central tool in providing
market grow by 41.5% over 2008, and total global wind power capacity sustainable electricity to the almost two billion people around the world
increased by 31.7% to 158 GW at the end of 2009.8 More grid- for whom access to electricity is presently denied.
connected solar PV capacity was added worldwide than in the boom
year of 2008. And the economics of renewables will further improve as
greenhouse development rights framework
they develop technically, as the price of fossil fuels continues to rise, and
as carbon pricing systems become more widespread. Although the Energy Revolution envisages a clear technological pathway, it
is only likely to be turned into reality if its corresponding investment costs
At the same time, there is enormous potential for reducing our
are shared fairly under some kind of global climate regime. To demonstrate
consumption of energy and still continuing to provide the same level
one such possibility, we have utilized the Greenhouse Development Rights
of energy services. Energy efficiency measures can substantially
Framework, designed by EcoEquity and the Stockholm Environment
reduce demand across industry, homes, business and services.9
Institute, as a way of evening up the unequal ability of different countries
Viewed against these positive attractions, nuclear energy is a relatively to respond to the climate crisis in their energy polices.
minor industry with major problems. The average age of operating
The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework (GDR) calculates
commercial nuclear reactors is 23 years, so more power stations are
national shares of global greenhouse gas obligations, based on a
being shut down than started. In 2009, world nuclear production had
combination of responsibility (contribution to climate change) and
fallen by 4% compared to 2006,10 and the number of operating reactors
capacity (ability to pay). Crucially, GDR takes inequality within countries
as of January 2010 was 436, eight less than at the historical peak of
into account and calculates national obligations on the basis of the
2002. Although nuclear power produces little carbon dioxide, there are
estimated capacity and responsibility of individuals. Individuals with
multiple threats to people and the environment from its operations.
incomes below a “development threshold”—specified in the default case
These include the risks and environmental damage from uranium mining,
as $7,500 per capita annual income, adjusted for purchasing power
processing and transport, the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation, the
parity (PPP)—are exempted from climate-related obligations. Individuals
unsolved problem of nuclear waste, and the potential hazard of a serious
with incomes above that level are expected to contribute to the costs of
accident. The nuclear option is therefore rejected in this analysis.
global climate policy in proportion to their capacity (amount of income
over the threshold) and responsibility (cumulative CO2 emissions).
the energy [r]evolution
The result of these calculations is that rich countries like Canada, which
The climate change imperative demands nothing short of an Energy is also responsible for a disproportionately large share of global
[R]evolution, a transformation that has already started as renewable greenhouse gas emissions, will contribute more toward the costs of
energy markets continue to grow. In the first global edition of the implementing global climate policies, such as increasing the proportion
Energy [R]evolution, published in January 2007, of renewables, than a country like Mexico. Based on a “responsibility
we projected a global installed renewable capacity of 156 GW by and capacity indicator” (RCI), Canada, accounting for 3.1% of the
2010. At the end of 2009, 158 GW has been installed. More needs to world’s responsibility for climate change, would thus be responsible for
be done, however. At the core of this revolution will be a change in the funding 2.9% of the required global emissions reductions.
way that energy is produced, distributed and consumed. The five key
The GDR therefore represents a good mechanism for helping
principles behind this shift will be to:
developing countries to leapfrog into a sustainable energy supply, with
the help of industrialized countries, while maintaining economic growth
the five key principles behind this shift will be to: and the need to satisfy their growing energy needs. Greenpeace has
taken this concept on board as a means of achieving equity within the
• Implement renewable solutions, especially through decentralized
climate debate and as a practical solution to kick-starting the
energy systems;
renewable energy market in developing countries.
• Respect the natural limits of the environment;
references
• Phase out dirty, unsustainable energy sources; 7 UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME, AND BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE,
GLOBAL TRENDS IN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2010: ANALYSIS
• Create greater equity in the use of resources; and OF TRENDS AND ISSUES IN THE FINANCING OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY
EFFICIENCY, 2010.
• Decouple economic growth from the consumption of fossil fuels. 8 SAWYER, A. ZERVOS, GLOBAL WIND 2009 REPORT, GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL,
MARCH 2010.
9 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY ARE PRESENTED IN CHAPTER 9,
BUT FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION SEE CHAPTER 10 OF THE GLOBAL 2010 ENERGY
Decentralized energy systems, where power and heat are produced close [R]EVOLUTION REPORT, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY
to the point of final use, will avoid the current waste of energy during OUTLOOK (EREC/GREENPEACE), AVAILABLE AT <WWW.ENERGYBLUEPRINT.INFO>
10 BP, STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2010.

12
image THOUSANDS OF FISH DIE AT THE

© GP/ALBERTO CESAR ARAUJO


DRY RIVER BED OF MANAQUIRI LAKE,
150 KILOMETERS FROM AMAZONAS
STATE CAPITOL MANAUS, BRAZIL.

methodology and assumptions In the Advanced scenario, the latest market development projections of
the renewable industry11 have been calculated for all sectors (see section
Three scenarios, up to the year 2050, are outlined in this report: a
5). The speedier uptake of electric vehicles, combined with the faster
Reference scenario;, an Energy [R]evolution (E[R]) scenario, with a
implementation of smart grids and expanding super grids (about ten
target of reducing Canadian energy-related CO2 emissions by 86% from
years ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario) allows a higher share
their 1990 levels (as part of 50% global reduction); and an Advanced
of fluctuating renewable power generation (photovoltaic and wind). The
Energy [R]evolution scenario, which envisages a fall of 94% in Canadian
threshold of a 40% proportion of renewables in global primary energy
energy-related CO2 by 2050 (as part of an 82% global reduction).
supply is therefore passed just after 2030 (also ten years ahead). By
The Reference scenario is based on the reference scenario in the contrast, the global quantity of biomass and large hydro power remain
International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) World Energy Outlook 2009 the same in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, for sustainability
(WEO 2009) analysis, extrapolated forward from 2030. Compared to reasons, although the share of biomass and hydro power are moderately
the previous (2007) IEA projection, WEO 2009 assumes a slightly lower higher in the Canadian Advanced scenario relative to the basic Energy
average annual growth rate for world gross domestic product (GDP) of [R]evolution scenario.
3.1%, instead of 3.6%, over the period 2007–2030. At the same time,
it expects final energy consumption in 2030 to be 6% lower than in the
towards a renewable future in canada
2007 report. China and India are expected to grow faster than other
regions, followed by the Developing Asia group of countries, Africa, and In 2007, renewable energy accounted for 15% of Canada’s primary
the Transition Economies countries (mainly the former Soviet Union). energy demand. The renewable share of electricity generation is 59%, due
The OECD share of global purchasing power parity (PPP)–adjusted primarily to the large share of hydroelectricity, while the contribution to
GDP will decrease from 55% in 2007 to 29% by 2050. heat supply is around 11%. About 76% of the primary energy supply
today still comes from fossil fuels and 9% from nuclear power. Both
The Energy [R]evolution scenario has a key target of the reduction of
Energy [R]evolution scenarios describe development pathways which turn
worldwide carbon dioxide emissions down to a level of around 10
the present situation into a sustainable energy supply, with the Advanced
gigatonnes per year by 2050. A second objective is the global
scenario achieving the urgently needed CO2 reduction target more than a
phasing-out of nuclear energy. To achieve these goals, the scenario is
decade earlier than the Energy [R]evolution scenario.
characterized by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential
for energy efficiency. At the same time, all cost-effective renewable
energy sources are used for heat and electricity generation, as well as results of implementing the advanced energy
the production of sustainable biofuels. The general framework [r]evolution scenario
parameters for population and GDP growth remain unchanged from
1.Efficiency—Final energy demand in Canada decreases by 38% from
the Reference scenario.
the current (2007) 8,583 petajoules per annum (PJ/a) to 5,362 PJ/a
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution Scenario takes a much more in 2050. By contrast, under the Reference scenario, demand grows
radical approach to the climate crisis facing the world. In order to 26% to 10,830 PJ/a. Globally, final energy demand grows modestly in
pull the emergency brake on global emissions, it therefore assumes the Advanced scenario, but much less than in the Reference scenario.
much shorter technical lifetimes for coal-fired power plants—20 This reduction in energy demand is a crucial prerequisite for
years instead of 40 years. This reduces global CO2 emissions even renewable energy’s achieving a significant share of the overall energy
faster and takes the latest evidence of greater climate sensitivity into supply system, and for compensating for the phasing-out of nuclear
account. To fill the resulting gap, the annual growth rates of energy and reduced consumption of fossil fuels.
renewable energy sources, especially solar photovoltaics, wind and
2.Electric transport—More electric drives are used in the transport
concentrating solar power plants, have therefore been increased.
sector, and hydrogen produced by electrolysis from excess renewable
Apart from that, the Advanced scenario takes on board all the electricity plays a much bigger role in the Advanced than in the E[R]
general framework parameters of population and economic growth scenario. By 2020, the final energy share of electric vehicles on the
from the basic scenario, as well as most of the energy efficiency road increases to 9% and by 2050 to 66%. More public transport
roadmap. In the transport sector, however, there is a faster uptake of systems also use electricity, as well as there being a greater shift from
efficient combustion vehicles and—after 2025—a larger share of road to rail in the transport of freight.
electric vehicles.
3.Combined Heat and Power (CHP)—The increased use of combined
Within the heating sector, there is a faster expansion of combined heat heat and power (CHP) generation also improves the supply system’s
and power (CHP) in the industry sector, more electricity for process energy conversion efficiency, increasingly using natural gas and
heat, and a faster growth of solar and geothermal heating systems. sustainable biomass. In the long term, the decreasing demand for heat
Combined with a larger share of electric drives in the transport sector, and the large potential for producing heat directly from renewable
this results in a higher overall demand for electric power in Canada. energy sources limits the further expansion of CHP.
Even so, the overall electricity demand in the advanced Energy references
11 PROF. ARTHOUROS ZERVOS, CHRISTINE LINS AND JOSCHE MUTH, RE-THINKING 2050: A
[R]evolution scenario is still 27% lower than in the Reference scenario. 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY VISION FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION, EUROPEAN RENEWABLE
ENERGY COUNCIL (EREC), APRIL 2010.

13
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

“worldwide we would see more direct jobs created in the


energy sector if we shift to either of the energy [r]evolution
scenarios than if we continue business as usual.”
4. Renewable electricity—The electricity sector will pioneer lower under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios than in the Reference
renewable energy. By 2050, about 96% of electricity will be scenario. This is due to the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation
produced from renewable sources, with the bulk of this coming and to the related costs for emission allowances, as well as to better
from hydro (78% of which already exists) and wind power. A economics of scale in the production of renewable power equipment.
significant share of the fluctuating power generation from wind
In 2050, electricity costs will be 7 cents/kWh in the Advanced
and solar photovoltaic will be used to supply electricity to vehicle
scenario; 7.2 cents/kWh in the Energy [R]evolution scenario; and
batteries and to produce hydrogen as a secondary fuel in transport
10.2 cents/kWh in the Reference scenario. Under the Reference
and industry. By using load management strategies, excess
scenario, the unchecked growth in electricity demand, the increase in
electricity generation will be reduced and more balancing power
fossil fuel prices, and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total
made available.
electricity supply costs rising from $34.7 billion in 2007 to $86.5
5. Renewable heat—The renewable energy contribution to heat supply billion in 2050. The Energy [R]evolution scenarios not only reduce
will increase to 92% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly Canada’s CO2 emissions, but also help to stabilize energy costs and
replaced by solar collectors, sustainable biomass, and geothermal relieve economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and
heat. Geothermal heat pumps will play a growing part in industrial shifting energy supply to renewables result in cumulative costs
heat production. (2007–2050) for electricity supply that are 36% lower in the
Advanced scenario and 41% lower in the E[R] scenario. The higher
6.Transportation efficiency—Efficiency in the transport sector will be
total costs in the Advanced compared to the E[R] scenario result
achieved by a modal shift from road to rail and by using lighter,
from greater electrification of the transport and heating sectors. It is
smaller vehicles. The production of biofuels is limited by the
assumed that average crude oil prices will increase from $110 per
availability of sustainable raw materials and dedicated primarily to
barrel in 2008, to $147 per barrel in 2020, and continue to rise to
stationary applications rather than liquid biofuels. Electric vehicles,
$170 per barrel in 2050. Natural gas import prices are expected to
powered by renewable energy sources, will make up an increasingly
increase by a factor of four between 2008 and 2050, while coal
important share of the vehicle fleet, from 2020 onwards.
prices will continue to rise, reaching $195 per tonne in 2050. A CO2
7. Renewable primary energy—The contribution of renewables to “price adder” is applied, which rises from $23 per tonne of CO2 in
Canada’s primary energy demand will be 74% by 2050, up from 2020 to $57 per tonne in 2050.
15% today.
8.Tar sands phase-out by 2030—Globally, the demand for oil in the future investment
Advanced scenario drops by 26% by 2030, relative to current levels,
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario would require $399 billion
and by 67% by 2050. This eliminates the market for high-cost, highly
investment in the electricity sector—about 25% higher than the
polluting, unconventional oil from the Canadian tar sands.
Reference scenario, at $319 billion. Under the Reference scenario,
To turn this scenario into reality, it will be important to invest in almost 30% of investment until 2050 will go towards fossil and
climate infrastructure, such as public transit, district heating, and nuclear fuels. Under the Advanced scenario, however, Canada shifts
smart grid systems, as well as in more research and development close to 90% of investment towards renewables and CHP; by 2050, the
(R&D) in technologies for storage of electricity. fossil fuel share of power-sector investment would be focused mainly on
combined heat and power and efficient gas-fired power plants. The
It is also important to highlight that in the Advanced Energy
average annual investment in the power sector under the Advanced
[R]evolution scenario, the remaining coal plants—the majority of which
Energy [R]evolution scenario, between 2007 and 2030, would be about
are in China and India—will be replaced 20 years before the end of
$9.3 billion. Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the
their technical lifetime. This means that in practice all coal power plants
fuel cost savings in the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario until
built between 2005 and 2020 will be replaced by renewable energy
2050 total $228 billion, or $5.3 billion per year.
sources from 2040 onwards. To support the building of capacity in
developing countries, significant new public financing, especially from Under the Reference scenario, the average annual additional fuel
industrialized countries, will be needed. It is vital that specific funding costs are higher than the additional investment requirements of the
mechanisms are developed under the international climate negotiations Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. In fact, just the additional
which can assist the transfer of financial support to climate change costs for coal from 2007 until the year 2050 are as high as $3
mitigation, including technology transfer. billion, which is enough to compensate the entire investment in
renewable and cogeneration capacity required to implement the
Advanced scenario. These renewable energy sources would then go on
future costs
to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050,
Increased renewable energy under the two Energy [R]evolution while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on the
scenarios slightly increases the cost of electricity, compared to the economy. Part of this money could be used to cover stranded
Reference scenario, until 2030. However, the difference will be less than investments in fossil power stations in developing countries.
1.2 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). After 2030, electricity costs will be

14
image CONSTRUCTION OF THE OFFSHORE

© PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
WINDFARM AT MIDDELGRUNDEN NEAR
COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.

future employment nuclear energy and a growth in electricity demand, CO2 emissions will
decrease enormously in the electricity sector. There will even be a
Worldwide, we would see more direct jobs created in the energy
reduction in transportation-sector CO2 emissions, due to efficiency
sector if we shifted to either of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
improvements, the increased use of electric vehicles powered by
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios lead to more electricity sector jobs renewable energy, and a dramatic expansion of public transport.
in Canada at every stage:
• By 2015, more than 67,000 jobs would be created in the renewable energy [r]evolution policy changes
power sector under the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario—
To join the Energy [R]evolution and to avoid catastrophic climate
29,000 more than the 38,000 in the Reference scenario. The
change, the following policies and actions must be implemented in the
Energy [R]evolution scenario would create 52,000 jobs in the
energy sector:
renewable power industry by the same year.
1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
• By 2030, the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario would create
about 72,000 jobs in the renewable power sector—24,000 more 2. Internalize the external (social and environmental) costs of energy
than the 48,000 jobs in the Reference scenario. The Advanced production through “cap and trade” emissions trading.
scenario creates about 12,000 more new jobs in the entire power
3. Implement strict efficiency standards for all energy-consuming
sector between 2015 and 2030, compared to the Reference
appliances, buildings and vehicles.
scenario.
4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and
combined heat and power generation.
canada’s co2 emissions
5. Guarantee priority grid access for renewable energy.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in Canada will increase more than 10%
under the Reference scenario, up to 2050, and are thus very far 6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors; for example,
removed from a sustainable development path. By contrast, under the through feed-in tariff programmes.
Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario emissions will decrease from 7. Implement better labelling to provide more energy and
547 million tonnes in 2007 to 29 million tonnes in 2050—94% environment product information.
below 1990 levels. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 16.6
tonnes to 0.7 tonnes in the same time period. In spite of phasing out 8. Increase research and development budgets for efficiency and
renewable energy.

figure 0.1: development of primary energy consumption in canada to 2050, under three scenarios
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000 •• ‘EFFICIENCY’
OCEAN ENERGY

8,000 •• GEOTHERMAL
SOLAR

6,000 •• BIOMASS
WIND

4,000 •• HYDRO
NATURAL GAS

2,000 •• OIL
COAL

PJ/a 0

REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
• NUCLEAR

E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]

2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

15
climate protection and energy policy
GLOBAL THE KYOTO PROTOCOL RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY POLICY CHANGES IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

1 “never before has


humanity been forced
to grapple with
such an immense
OCTOBER STORM WHICH IMPACTS ON THE VILLAGE
image THE LOCAL ALASKAN TELEVISION STATION
BROADCASTS A WARNING FOR HIGH TIDES AND
EROSION ALONG THE SEASIDE DURING A 2006

OF SHISHMAREF. © GP/ROBERT KNOTH

environmental crisis.”
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN

16
image WANG WAN YI, AGE 76, ADJUSTS THE SUNLIGHT
POINT ON A SOLAR DEVICE USED TO BOIL HIS KETTLE.
HE LIVES WITH HIS WIFE IN ONE ROOM CARVED OUT 1
OF THE SANDSTONE, A TYPICAL DWELLING FOR LOCAL

© GP/JOHN NOVIS

climate protection |
PEOPLE IN THE REGION. DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOST
HARMFUL NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHWEST CHINA.
CLIMATE CHANGE HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
CHINA’S ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY.

The greenhouse effect is the process by which the atmosphere traps Here is a summary of some likely effects if we allow
some of the sun’s energy, warming the earth and moderating our current trends to continue:
climate. A human-driven increase in greenhouse gases has enhanced

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS


Likely effects of small to moderate warming
this effect, artificially raising global temperatures and disrupting our
climate. These greenhouse gases include, carbon dioxide (CO2), • Sea level rise due to melting glaciers and the thermal expansion of
produced by burning fossil fuels and through deforestation; methane, the oceans as global temperature increases. Massive releases of
which is released from agriculture, animals and landfill sites; and greenhouse gases from melting permafrost and dying forests.
nitrous oxide, resulting from agricultural production plus a variety of
• A greater risk of more extreme weather events such as heatwaves,
industrial chemicals.
droughts and floods. Already, the global incidence
Every day we damage our climate by using fossil fuels (oil, coal and of drought has doubled over the past 30 years.
gas) for energy and transport. Over the coming decades, the resulting
• Severe regional impacts. In Europe, river flooding will increase, as
changes are likely to destroy the livelihoods of millions of people,
well as coastal flooding, erosion and wetland loss. Flooding will also
especially in the developing world, as well as ecosystems and species.
severely affect low-lying areas in developing countries such as
We therefore need to significantly reduce our greenhouse gas
Bangladesh and South China.
emissions. This makes both environmental and economic sense.
• Natural systems, including glaciers, coral reefs, mangroves, alpine
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ecosystems, boreal forests, tropical forests, prairie wetlands and
(IPCC), the United Nations forum for established scientific opinion,
native grasslands will be severely threatened.
the world’s temperature is expected to increase over the next hundred
years by up to 6.4° Celsius (C) if no action is taken to reduce • Increased risk of species extinction and biodiversity loss.
greenhouse gas emissions. This is much faster than anything The greatest impacts will be on poorer countries in sub-Saharan
experienced so far in human history. The goal of climate policy should Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Andean South America, as
be to keep the global mean-temperature rise to less than 2°C above well as small islands least able to protect themselves from increasing
pre-industrial levels. At a rise of more than 2°C rise, damage to droughts, rising sea levels, the spread of disease, and a decline in
ecosystems and disruption to the climate system is expected to agricultural production.
increase dramatically. We have very little time left to change our
energy sources to avoid this: global emissions will have to peak and
start to decline by 2015. Longer-term catastrophic effects

Climate change is already harming people and ecosystems. Its reality • Warming from rising emissions may trigger the irreversible
can be seen in disintegrating polar ice, thawing permafrost, rising sea meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, adding up to seven metres of
levels, and fatal heat waves. It is not only scientists who are global sea-level rise over several centuries.
witnessing these changes. From the Inuit in the far north to islanders • New evidence shows that the rate of ice discharge from parts of the
near the Equator, people are already struggling with impacts Antarctic means that its ice sheet is also at risk of meltdown.
consistent with climate change. An average global warming of more
than 2°C threatens millions of people with an increased risk of • The resultant slowing, shifting or shutting down of the Atlantic Gulf
hunger, disease, flooding and water shortages. Never before has Stream current would have dramatic effects in Europe, and disrupt
humanity been forced to grapple with such an immense environmental the global ocean circulation system.
crisis. If we do not take urgent and immediate action to protect the • Large releases of methane from melting permafrost and from the
climate, the damage could become irreversible. Avoiding such damage oceans would lead to rapid increases of the gas in the atmosphere
can only happen through a rapid reduction in the emissions of and to consequent warming.
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

“climate change has


moved from being a
predominantly physical
phenomenon to being a social
one” (hulme, 2009).”
17
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
1
climate protection |

1.1 the kyoto protocol 1.2 international energy policy


Recognising these threats, the signatories to the 1992 UN Framework At present, renewable energy generators have to compete with old
KYOTO PROTOCOL

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to the Kyoto nuclear and fossil fuel power stations, which produce electricity at
Protocol in 1997. The Protocol finally entered into force in early marginal cost because consumers and taxpayers have already paid the
2005 and its 165 member countries meet twice annually to negotiate interest and depreciation on the original investment. Political action is
further refinement and development of the agreement. Only one major needed to overcome these distortions and create a level playing field
industrialized nation, the United States, has not ratified Kyoto. for renewable energy technologies to compete.
The Kyoto Protocol commits its signatories to reduce their At a time when governments around the world are in the process of
greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from their 1990 level by the liberalising their electricity markets, the increasing competitiveness of
target period of 2008–2012. This has in turn resulted in the adoption renewable energy should lead to higher demand. Without political
of a series of regional and national reduction targets. In the European support, however, renewable energy remains at a disadvantage,
Union, for instance, the commitment is to an overall reduction of 8%. marginalised by distortions in the world’s electricity markets created by
In order to help reach this target, the EU also agreed on a target to decades of massive financial, political and structural support to
increase its proportion of renewable energy, from 6% to 12% by conventional technologies. Developing renewables will therefore require
2010. Canada agreed to cut its emissions by 6% relative to 1990 strong political and economic efforts, especially through laws that
levels, but emissions are now 24% higher than they were in 1990. guarantee stable tariffs over a period of up to 20 years. Renewable
energy will also contribute to sustainable economic growth, high-quality
At present, the 193 members of UNFCCC are negotiating a new
jobs, technology development, global competitiveness, and industrial
climate change agreement that should enable all countries to continue
and research leadership.
contributing to ambitious and fair emissions reductions.
Unfortunately, the aim to reach such an agreement in Copenhagen at
the end of 2009 failed, and governments will continue negotiating in 1.3 renewable energy targets
2010 and possibly beyond to reach a new legally binding deal. Such
In recent years, in order to reduce greenhouse emissions as well as
an agreement will need to ensure that industrialized countries reduce
increase energy security, a growing number of countries have
their emissions on average by at least 40% by 2020, compared to
established targets for renewable energy. These are either expressed in
their 1990 levels. They will further need to provide funding of at least
terms of installed capacity or as a percentage of energy consumption.
$140 billion a year to developing countries to enable them to adapt
These targets have served as important catalysts for increasing the
to climate change, protect their forests and achieve their part of the
share of renewable energy throughout the world.
energy revolution. Developing countries need to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions by 15 to 30%, compared to their projected A time period of just a few years is not long enough in the electricity
growth by 2020. sector, however, where the investment horizon can be up to 40 years.
Renewable energy targets therefore need to involve short-, medium-
This new “fair and binding” (FAB) deal will need to incorporate the
and long-term steps and must be legally binding in order to be
Kyoto Protocol’s architecture. This relies fundamentally on legally
effective. They should also be supported by incentive mechanisms such
binding emissions reduction obligations. To achieve these targets, carbon
as feed-in tariffs for renewable electricity generation. In order for the
is turned into a commodity which can be traded. The aim is to encourage
proportion of renewable energy to increase significantly, targets must
the most economically efficient emissions reductions, in turn leveraging
be set in accordance with the local potential for each technology
the necessary investment in clean technology from the private sector to
(wind, solar, sustainable biomass, etc.) and be complemented by
drive a revolution in energy supply.
policies that develop the skills and manufacturing bases to deliver the
After Copenhagen, governments need to increase their resolve to agreed-upon quantity.
reduce emissions and invest even more in making the energy
In recent years. the wind and solar power industries have shown that
revolution happen. Greenpeace believes that it is feasible to reach a
it is possible to maintain a growth rate of 30 to 35% in the
FAB deal in Cancun at the end of this year, if there is sufficient
renewables sector. In conjunction with the European Photovoltaic
political will to conclude such an agreement. That political will seems
Industry Association,12 the European Solar Thermal Power Industry
to be lacking at the moment. But even if a FAB deal cannot be
Association,13 and the Global Wind Energy Council,14 the European
finalised in Cancun, due to lack of ambition and commitment by some
Renewable Energy Council and Greenpeace have documented the
countries, major parts could still be in place, specifically those related
development of those industries from 1990 onwards and outlined a
to long-term financing commitments, forest protection and an overall
prognosis for growth up to 2020 and 2040.
target for emissions reductions. The result would be that by the time
of the Environment and Development Summit in Brazil in 2012, we
would be celebrating an agreement that definitely keeps the world’s references
12 GREENPEACE, SOLAR GENERATION IV (C. AUBREY, ED.), SEPTEMBER 2009.
temperature well below two degrees of warming. 13 GREENPEACE, CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER GLOBAL OUTLOOK 09: WHY RENEWABLE
ENERGY IS HOT!, MAY 2009.
14 GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL, GLOBAL WIND ENERGY OUTLOOK 2008,
OCTOBER 2008.

18
image A PRAWN SEED FARM ON
MAINLAND INDIA’S SUNDARBANS COAST
LIES FLOODED AFTER CYCLONE AILA. 1

© GP/PETER CATON
INUNDATING AND DESTROYING NEARBY

climate protection |
ROADS AND HOUSES WITH SALT WATER.

1.4 policy changes in the energy sector


Greenpeace and the renewables industry have a clear

DEMANDS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR


agenda for the policy changes which need to be made to
encourage a shift to renewable sources.
The main demands are the following:

© GP/STEVE MORGAN
1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

© GP/PETER CATON
2. Internalize external (social and environmental) costs through cap-
and-trade emissions trading.
3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy-consuming 1 2

appliances, buildings and vehicles.


4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy
and combined heat and power generation.
5. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority access
to the grid for renewable power generators.
6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors, for example
through feed-in tariff payments.

© GP/JOHN NOVIS
7. Implement better labelling and disclosure mechanisms to provide
more environmental product information.
3
8. Increase research and development budgets for renewable energy
and energy efficiency
Conventional energy sources receive an estimated $250–300 billion15 in
subsidies per year worldwide, resulting in heavily distorted markets.
Subsidies artificially reduce the price of power, keep renewable energy
out of the market place and prop up non-competitive technologies and
fuels. Eliminating direct and indirect subsidies to fossil fuels and
© GP/STEVE MORGAN

nuclear power would help move us toward a level playing field across

© GP/PETER CATON
the energy sector. Renewable energy would not need special provisions if
markets factored in the cost of climate damage from greenhouse gas
pollution. Subsidies to polluting technologies are perverse in that they
4 5
are economically as well as environmentally detrimental. Removing
subsidies from conventional electricity supply would not only save
taxpayers’ money, it would also dramatically reduce the need for images 1. AN AERIAL VIEW OF PERMAFROST TUNDRA IN THE YAMAL PENINSULA. THE
renewable energy support. ENTIRE REGION IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS. 2. SOVARANI KOYAL LIVES IN
SATJELLIA ISLAND AND IS ONE OF THE MANY PEOPLE AFFECTED BY SEA LEVEL RISE:
“NOWADAYS, HEAVY FLOODS ARE GOING ON HERE. THE WATER LEVEL IS INCREASING AND
THE TEMPERATURE TOO. WE CANNOT LIVE HERE, THE HEAT IS BECOMING UNBEARABLE. WE
HAVE RECEIVED A PLASTIC SHEET AND HAVE COVERED OUR HOME WITH IT. DURING THE

“if we do not take urgent and COMING MONSOON WE SHALL WRAP OUR BODIES IN THE PLASTIC TO STAY DRY. WE HAVE
ONLY A FEW GOATS BUT WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THEY ARE. WE ALSO HAVE TWO CHILDREN
AND WE CANNOT MANAGE TO FEED THEM.” 3. WANG WAN YI, AGE 76, SITS INSIDE HIS HOME
immediate action to protect WHERE HE LIVES WITH HIS WIFE IN ONE ROOM CARVED OUT OF THE SANDSTONE, A TYPICAL
DWELLING FOR LOCAL PEOPLE IN THE REGION. DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOST HARMFUL

the climate the damage could NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHWEST CHINA. CLIMATE CHANGE HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON CHINA’S ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY. 4. INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE WITH THEIR
REINDEER. THE NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR HERDS DO NOT
become irreversible.” OVER GRAZE THE GROUND. THE ENTIRE REGION AND ITS INHABITANTS ARE UNDER HEAVY
THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT
PERMAFROST MELTS. 5. A BOY HOLDS HIS MOTHER’S HANDS WHILST IN A QUEUE FOR
EMERGENCY RELIEF SUPPLY. SCIENTISTS ESTIMATE THAT OVER 70,000 PEOPLE, LIVING
EFFECTIVELY ON THE FRONT LINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE
SUNDARBANS DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE BY THE YEAR 2030.

references
15 UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME, WORLD ENERGY ASSESSMENT: ENERGY
AND THE CHALLENGE OF SUSTAINABILITY, 2000.

19
implementing the energy [r]evolution
GLOBAL CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS
FTSM SCHEME

2 ima
ge G
EOT
HER
M AL
POW
ER
P LAN
T, N
O RTH
ISL
AN D, N
EW
ZEA
LAN
D. ©
JOE
GOU
G H/DREA
MST
IME

“bridging the gap.”


GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN

20
“the debate over a national energy strategy holds the key to
what kind of an ‘energy superpower’ canada will become.” 2

implementing the energy [r]evolution |


2.1 canadian policy issues The Harper government’s Energy Superpower ambition has also
shaped its approach to Canada’s international climate commitments
2.1.1 canada: an energy superpower?
and its positions in the negotiations over a new global climate deal.
The American Recovery and Successive Canadian governments have
Canada has effectively reneged on its commitments under the Kyoto
been criticized for inaction on the climate change file. The truth is
Protocol. To be fair, successive federal governments have failed to
that they have been very active. This activity simply hasn’t been
bring in measures to significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions,
focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
opting instead for voluntary policies and for subsidies rather than
To grasp the essence of contemporary Canadian climate policy, one mandatory carbon pricing and regulatory initiatives such as tougher
need only turn to Stephen Harper’s first speech as Prime Minister to energy efficiency rules for buildings, equipment and vehicles, and for
business leaders outside of Canada. Speaking to a United Kingdom subsidizing the tar sands. But the Harper government is not only
audience in July 2006, he boldly announced his intention to build failing to pursue greenhouse gas reduction measures, it is also

CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES


Canada into an “energy superpower.” refusing to use the flexibility mechanisms available to it under the
Protocol to address this shortfall. Canada has also been widely
Canada, he said, was already the fifth-largest producer of energy in
viewed as playing a negative role in the negotiations, earning more
the world, on the strength of its production of oil, gas, uranium and
“Fossil of the Day” awards from the Climate Action Network than
hydroelectricity. But this was “only the beginning”:
any other country for the last several years.
“An ocean of oil-soaked sand lies under the muskeg of northern
Canada was the only country in the world to lower its sights when
Alberta—my home province. The oil sands are the second largest oil
submitting its emissions reduction pledge under the Copenhagen Accord.23
deposit in the world, bigger than Iraq, Iran or Russia; exceeded only
On 30 January 2010, Canadian Environment Minister Jim Prentice
by Saudi Arabia. Digging the bitumen out of the ground, squeezing
announced a new, weaker target for Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions
out the oil and converting it in into synthetic crude is a monumental
in 202024—17% cent below 2005 levels, by 2020. The government’s
challenge. It requires vast amounts of capital, Brobdingnagian
previous target (adopted in 2006 as part of the government’s “Turning
technology, and an army of skilled workers. In short, it is an
the Corner” climate change plan) was a 20% reduction below 2006
enterprise of epic proportions, akin to the building of the pyramids or
levels, by 2020. Not only was the new target weaker, it effectively rejected
China’s Great Wall. Only bigger.” 16
Canada’s Kyoto Protocol target. The current target of the Harper
The Energy Superpower vision he laid out in that speech—of an government for 2020 is 2.5% above the 1990 level, whereas the Kyoto
economic future for the nation rooted in the rapid exploitation of the target for 2008–2012 was 6% below the 1990 level.
tar sands, the expansion of the oil and gas frontier in the Arctic, and
Greenhouse gas emissions are typically referenced to 1990, which is the
the sale of nuclear technology and fuel—has been the key driver of
emissions base year used by the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, a 17% reduction
climate policy in Canada ever since.
from the 2005 level by 2020, is 2.5% above 1990 levels. The previous
It shaped the government’s response to the 2008 economic crisis. In target (a 20% reduction from the 2006 level, by 2020) was 3% below
Canada, only eight per cent of the economic stimulus package was 1990 levels. Canadian greenhouse gas emissions were 731 million
dedicated to “green” measures, a level well below the comparable green tonnes (megatonnes—Mt) in 2005; 718 Mt in 2006; 750 Mt in 2007;
share of stimulus packages in the US (12%), China (38%), the European and 734 Mt in 2008 (the most recent year for which data are
Union (59%), and South Korea (81%). And of that, the largest amount available).25 Canada’s 2008 emission level was 24% above the 1990
(41%) was for carbon capture and storage projects—a direct public level of 592 Mt, and about 30% above the Kyoto target of 558.4 Mt.
subsidy for coal-fired and tar sands electricity, as well as for Atomic
Energy of Canada Limited (AECL), making Canada the only country to
references
subsidize nuclear power as part of its economic stimulus package.17 16 STEPHEN HARPER, ADDRESS BY THE PRIME MINISTER AT THE CANADA-UK CHAMBER
OF COMMERCE, 14 JULY 2006, AVAILABLE AT <HTTP://PM.GC.CA/ENG/MEDIA.ASP?ID=1247>.
The steps for turning Canada into this “energy superpower” have begun 17 HSBC GLOBAL RESEARCH, “A CLIMATE FOR RECOVERY: THE COLOUR OF STIMULUS GOES
to be realized in federal budgets, the government’s most significant GREEN”, 25 FEBRUARY 2009. SEE ALSO JON STRAND AND MICHAEL TOMAN, GREEN
STIMULUS, ECONOMIC RECOVERY, AND LONG-TERM SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, POLICY
annual policy statement. It was telling that the Harper government’s first RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 5163 (THE WORLD BANK, JANUARY 2010).
budget saw the elimination of fifteen climate-related programmes.18 And 18 GOVERNMENT OF CANADA, “FIRST STEPS TAKEN TOWARDS MADE-IN-CANADA
APPROACH,” NEWS RELEASE, 13 APRIL 2006.
in its 2010 budget, it eliminated the principal federal programs for 19 SEE 31 MARCH 2010 ANNOUNCEMENT BY GOVERNMENT OF CANADA, AVAILABLE AT
supporting energy efficiency19 and renewable energy,20 while putting in <HTTP://OEE.NRCAN.GC.CA/RESIDENTIAL/PERSONAL/GRANTS.CFM?ATTR=4>.
20 GLORIA GALLOWAY, “TORY BUDGET ‘WALKS AWAY' FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY,
place new measures to fast-track approvals for fossil fuel and nuclear ENVIRONMENTALIST SAYS.” GLOBE AND MAIL, 10 MARCH 2010.
infrastructure.21 And the International Energy Agency’s 2009 country 21 MARTIN MITTELSTAEDT AND GLORIA GALLOWAY, “OTTAWA REVISES RULES OF
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW REGIME”, GLOBE AND MAIL, 31 MARCH 2010.
review found that even though Canada is of one of the highest emitters 22 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, ENERGY POLICIES OF IEA COUNTRIES: CANADA 2009
of greenhouse gases per capita in the world, and has a higher energy REVIEW, 2010, PP. 9, 237.
23 CANADA’S SUBMISSION TO THE UNFCCC OF ITS QUANTIFIED ECONOMY-WIDE EMISSIONS
intensity than any other IEA country, the largest part of government TARGET, ONLINE AT <HTTP://WWW.CLIMATECHANGE.GC.CA/CDP-
research and development spending is for fossil fuels (27%) and nuclear COP/DEFAULT.ASP?LANG=EN&N=C4BD2547-1#P4>.
24 ENVIRONMENT CANADA, “CANADA LISTS EMISSIONS TARGET UNDER THE COPENHAGEN
power (38%), while energy efficiency (14%) and renewable energy ACCORD” NEWS RELEASE, 1 FEBRUARY 2010.
(11%) are short-changed.22 25 ENVIRONMENT CANADA, NATIONAL INVENTORY REPORT 1990–2008, APRIL 2010.

21
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |

To put these numbers in perspective, Greenpeace and other environmental Nor, contrary to the emphasis on harmonization, is the Canadian
groups have called on Canada to adopt a science-based emissions federal government matching the efforts of the United States on energy
reduction target of at least 25% below 1990 levels by the year 2020. efficiency and renewable energy. The US federal government is investing
eight times more, per person, in renewable energy, energy efficiency and
Even the government’s new weak climate target will not be achieved
public transit combined than is Canada’s federal government. The gap is
without significant new measures,26 and the government’s own
even larger when it comes to investments in green energy. In 2009,
assessment shows that there is no net reduction in greenhouse gas
there was a 14:1 per capita ratio between the United States and
emissions expected from federal action in the 2009–2012 period.27
Canada for investments in renewable energy and this ratio is set to
This combination of Canada’s poor performance on reducing emissions climb to nearly 18:1 in 2010.33
and its weak policy resulted in a last-place finish in the 2009 G8 Climate
Furthermore, a made-in-Washington strategy will not be the best
Scorecard produced jointly by the conservation organization WWF and
suited for Canada. In the United States, coal-fired electricity is a
the global insurance firm Allianz. Similarly, in a survey of climate policy
CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES

primary source of greenhouse gas emissions, while domestic oil


in 57 major countries released during the Copenhagen climate summit,
production is declining. In Canada, on the other hand, coal-fired
Canada finished second-last (ahead of Saudi Arabia).28
electricity is a relatively small and declining portion of the system
mix while the upstream oil and gas sector is growing rapidly. So while
2.1.2 a superpower without sovereignty? it may make sense to have common regulations for vehicle fuel
In 2006, the newly-elected Harper government turned its back on efficiency (where Canada has recently been forced to raise its aim to
Canada’s Kyoto commitments on the grounds that the country needed match that of the United States), the differences in the energy mix
a “made in Canada” approach to climate change. In 2007, the will require different policy solutions.
Harper government brought forward the “Turning the Corner” plan to The strategy of waiting for the United States to pass legislation is,
reduce greenhouse gases, which was assessed in Energy [R]evolution: however, supported by the oil industry.34 So is designing a national
A Sustainable Canada Energy Outlook.29 energy strategy whose stated guiding principles include to “advance
These proposals for a cap-and-trade system and regulatory measures, the primacy of the Canada-United States energy relationship.”35
which were never implemented, have since been officially abandoned Indeed, it is the debate over a national energy strategy—which is now
in favour of harmonizing with US climate policy.30 The unprecedented being called for by the oil and gas industry, the renewable energy
degree of integration—under US leadership—that is being proposed industry and environmentalists—which holds the key to what kind of
was made clear in a 1 February 2010 speech by federal Environment an “energy superpower” Canada will become: a nation seeking to
Minister Jim Prentice: export increasingly carbon-intensive oil into a world market that has
“We have adjusted our previous target to ensure that it matches moved on to electric vehicles powered by green grids, or a leader in
exactly with those just inscribed by the United States and we have the transition to a green energy system.
consistently said from the outset that we must harmonize our climate
change strategy with that of our greatest trading partner because of
the degree of economic integration between our two countries.... Our
determination to harmonize our climate change policy with that of the references
United States also extends beyond greenhouse gas emission targets: 26 FOR ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE POLICY MEASURES REQUIRED TO ACHIEVE THE
GOVERNMENT’S OWN TARGET AS WELL AS A MORE AGGRESSIVE, SCIENCE-BASED TARGET,
we need to proceed even further in aligning our regulations…[W]e SEE: MATTHEW BRAMLEY, PIERRE SADIK AND DALE MARSHALL, CLIMATE LEADERSHIP,
will only adopt a cap-and-trade regime if the United States signals ECONOMIC PROSPERITY: FINAL REPORT ON AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF GREENHOUSE GAS
TARGETS AND POLICIES FOR CANADA, PEMBINA INSTITUTE AND DAVID SUZUKI
that it wants to do the same. Our position on harmonization applies FOUNDATION, 2009.
equally to regulation… Canada can go down either road—cap-and- 27 ENVIRONMENT CANADA, A CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE KYOTO
PROTOCOL IMPLEMENTATION ACT, GOVERNMENT OF CANADA: MAY 2010, P. 34.
trade or regulation—but we will go down neither road alone.” 31 28 GERMAN WATCH AND CAN-EUROPE, CLIMATE CHANGE PERFORMANCE INDEX 2010,
(DECEMBER 2009).
In that same speech, Prentice reiterated the government’s commitment 29 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL, GREENPEACE, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A
SUSTAINABLE CANADA ENERGY OUTLOOK, GREENPEACE CANADA, MAY 2009.
to defending the expansion of the tar sands as a key element of its 30 SEE “CANADA’S ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE,” AVAILABLE AT
strategy for becoming a “clean energy superpower,” yet the rhetoric on <HTTP://WWW.ECOACTION.GC.CA/CLIMATECHANGE-CHANGEMENTSCLIMATIQUES/INDEX-
ENG.CFM>.
the need to clean up the tar sands (Minister Prentice said “let me be 31 “SPEAKING POINTS FOR THE HONOURABLE JIM PRENTICE, PC, QC, MP, MINISTER OF THE
perfectly clear, the oil sands must be developed in an environmentally ENVIRONMENT, TO THE MEMBERS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC
POLICY AND THE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS”, CALGARY, ALBERTA, 1 FEBRUARY 2010.
responsible manner and the Government of Canada will ensure that oil 32 MINISTRY OF FINANCE, “G-20 COMMITMENT—FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES”, MEMORANDUM
sands development lives up to our stated objective to be a ‘clean energy FROM MICHAEL HORGAN TO MINISTER OF FINANCE (18 MARCH 2010), AVAILABLE AT
<HTTP://COMMUNITIES.CANADA.COM/SHAREIT/BLOGS/POLITICS/ARCHIVE/2010/05/28/PRENT
superpower’”) was not matched by any requirements to do so. To his ICE-AND-FLAHERTY-BEHIND-CLOSED-DOORS-WITH-PM.ASPX>.
credit, a leaked Finance Ministry memo32 shows that Minister Prentice 33 TIM WEIS, NEW ANALYSIS COMPARES U.S. AND CANADIAN INVESTMENTS IN
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN 2010, THE PEMBINA INSTITUTE, 11 MARCH 2010.
supported the phase-out of subsidies to the oil and gas sector as a way 34 DAVID LJUNGGREN AND SCOTT HAGGETT, “CANADA WAITING FOR U.S. TO TAKE LEAD ON
to make the “clean” part of “clean energy superpower” more credible, CURBING EMISSIONS” VANCOUVER SUN, 19 DECEMBER 2009.
35 SEE THE WEBSITE OF THE ENERGY POLICY INSTITUTE OF CANADA:
yet this is not being acted on by the government. <WWW.CANADASENERGY.CA>.

22
image A MAINTENANCE WORKER MARKS
A BLADE OF A WINDMILL AT GUAZHOU

© GP/MARKEL REDONDO
WIND FARM NEAR YUMEN IN GANSU
PROVINCE, CHINA.

implementing the energy [r]evolution |


2.1.3 a national energy strategy for canada: energy national system that would simplify and enhance the reliability of
[r]evolution or status quo? their investment strategy, as described below.
This report is intended to inform a public discussion on Canada’s The second development has to do with concern over possible future
energy future. Ever since the political and oil industry backlash regulatory measures in the United States, not only on climate change
against the National Energy Policy of the 1980s, however, discussion but also to “end America’s addiction to oil.” There are several policy
of any kind of national energy strategy in Canada has been taboo. measures being put in place, such as California’s Low Carbon Fuel
Standard; and corporate and municipal decisions to not buy oil from
This is changing. The renewable energy industry has long called for a
the tar sands. There has also been ongoing consideration of multi-state
national energy strategy, to little effect.36 Environmentalists have
regional or a national low carbon fuel standard that would limit the
supported a public role in shaping our energy future, although they have
market for carbon-intensive oil from the tar sands.42
usually labelled it a climate plan rather than an energy strategy. Key
opponents have been the Canadian federal government, the government On the other hand, a countervailing concern—energy security in the

CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES


of Alberta, and the oil and gas industry. United States (particularly concern over access to oil)—makes the
Canadian tar sands seem more attractive as a secure and reliable source
Yet the federal government’s Energy Superpower vision is an
of petroleum. Yet the market for oil is truly global, and measures to
energy strategy, one which it is supporting with federal subsidies37 as
reduce oil dependency in the United States, if accompanied by similar
well as with changes to regulatory processes governing fossil fuel and
measures in the rest of the world along the lines proposed in the global
nuclear infrastructure.
Energy [R]evolution scenarios, would push the high-cost oil from the tar
And now, major conventional energy industry players are also calling on sands out of the market (as illustrated below in Figure 2.1).
the federal and provincial governments to adopt a national energy
Taken together, looming restrictions on dirty oil and concerns over
strategy,38 along with think tanks such as the Canada West Foundation.39
energy security make a strong argument (from the oil and gas
The testimony of these groups before the Canadian Senate convinced its
industry’s perspective) for locking in high-carbon projects now. Tar
Energy, Environment and Natural Resources Committee to support the
sands developments are highly capital-intensive projects with long life
development of a Canadian energy strategy.40
spans. They have huge up-front costs, but relatively low operating
This reversal of long-standing opposition to a federal role in energy costs, so that once they are built there is a powerful incentive to keep
planning is a product of three principal developments. The first is them operating. Hence the push to establish a national energy
related to how the absence of federal leadership on climate change has strategy that facilitates the rapid development of these resources,
led to a “patchwork” of regulatory initiatives at the provincial and before policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or avoid
regional levels. These initiatives reflect underlying competition between tar sands development are put in place.
regions over new energy investment, in order to obtain the
The third development that has led to a shift in the position of key oil
accompanying jobs and tax revenues. Ontario, Quebec and British
industry players on a national energy strategy is related to their efforts to
Columbia, for example, are pursuing investments in renewable energy
regain their “social license” for continued development. By having
within their respective territories, and have joined with a number of
individual projects (albeit often multi-billion-dollar projects) included in a
American states, led by California, in the Western Climate Initiative to
strategy endorsed by the federal and provincial governments, it is hoped
provide a framework for what they hope will be the future national
that the onus for defending developments will shift from the industry
systems for regulating greenhouse gas emissions. Alberta, and to a
itself to government. This is similar to the way in which a government
lesser extent Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, are pursuing
permit for the release of harmful pollutants provides companies a social
investments in unconventional oil and gas development. The Canadian
license within the communities where they operate.
Energy Research Institute, for example, has estimated that a $379-
billion investment will be required by 2025 to bring oil production to references
around four million barrels per day.41 36 SEE: <HTTP://WWW.CANREA.CA/SITE/NATIONAL-STRATEGY/>.
37 MINISTRY OF FINANCE, “G-20 COMMITMENT—FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES,”
There is also a competition amongst jurisdictions for a larger share of MEMORANDUM FROM MICHAEL HORGAN TO MINISTER OF FINANCE. (18 MARCH 2010).
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS ALSO PROVIDED $1 BILLION FOR CARBON CAPTURE
the national carbon budget. Even though industry lobbies against any AND STORAGE PROJECTS:
change, there is widespread acknowledgement that greenhouse gas HTTP://WWW.CLIMATECHANGE.GC.CA/DEFAULT.ASP?LANG=EN&N=D22D143E-1
38 SEE: CARRIE TAIT, “NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY PUSH,” NATIONAL POST, 29 APRIL
emissions will eventually be constrained either through regulation or 2010, AND DAVID EMERSON, “MAKE NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY A PRIORITY.”
market-based mechanisms. Provincial governments also recognize that EDMONTON JOURNAL, 27 MARCH 2010.
39 ROGER GIBBINS AND KARI ROBERTS, CANADA'S POWER PLAY: THE CASE FOR A
the sectoral allocation of emissions permits (e.g., between the CANADIAN ENERGY STRATEGY FOR A CARBON-CONSTRAINED WORLD, CANADA WEST
manufacturing sector and upstream oil and gas) under a cap-and-trade FOUNDATION, SEPTEMBER 2008.
40 STANDING SENATE COMMITTEE ON ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL
system will have important regional implications. RESOURCES, ATTENTION CANADA! PREPARING FOR OUR ENERGY FUTURE: TOWARDS A
CANADIAN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY STRATEGY, JUNE 2010.
Industry is concerned that it will face higher compliance costs if it 41 CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE IMPACTS OF CANADIAN OIL SANDS
DEVELOPMENT ON THE UNITED STATES’ ECONOMY, OCTOBER 2009.
has to deal with multiple systems for regulating greenhouse gas 42 SHAWN MCCARTHY, “U.S. CARBON RULES POSE OIL SANDS HURDLE”, GLOBE AND
emissions, and the energy industry in particular is calling for a MAIL, 6 JANUARY 2010.
43 SEE: <HTTP://WWW.CAPP.CA/ABOUTUS/PAGES/ADCAMPAIGNS.ASPX#BWW7XYAW6RZR
AND HTTP://WWW.CANADASOILSANDS.CA/EN/>.

23
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |

This social license has been shaken by the global spotlight that has been to 1990 or more recent years.”48 Moreover, in May 2010, the
cast on the environmental and social problems associated with the tar Canadian parliament passed the Climate Change Accountability Act
sands. In response, the oil and gas industry has launched major (Bill C-311), which requires the government to cut greenhouse gas
advertising and social media campaigns.43 It has also launched a political emissions 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050. The
lobbying campaign in favour of a national energy strategy that Act also requires the government to set regulations that ensure that
incorporates both the planned expansion of fossil fuel extraction as well these targets are met; however, to date, the government has taken no
as modest investments in renewable energy sources and energy efficiency. action in this regard.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, the Canadian The Reference Scenario outlined in this report—based on the
Petroleum Products Institute, the Canadian Gas Association and the International Energy Agency’s Reference Scenario, incorporating
Canadian Energy Pipeline Association, for example, have come together existing energy and environmental policies—would result in Canada’s
to proactively develop and advocate for an “Energy Framework energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 being 32% above
CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES

Initiative” that would form the basis of such a strategy.44 This Initiative 1990 levels. The Energy [R]evolution scenarios outlined in this
is explicitly geared towards ensuring the industry’s social license for the report, on the other hand, would actually achieve the level of
expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure and as a response to what the reduction that the Canadian government has accepted as its goal for
associations describe as “uninformed media and public reactions 2050. The basic Energy [R]evolution scenario would reduce Canadian
against energy development.”45 energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 by 84%, relative to
1990 levels, while the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario would
Energy companies have also joined together to advocate for a national
cut Canadian emissions by 94%, relative to 1990 levels.
energy strategy. In 2009, for example, the major tar sands companies
(along with other energy players) formed the Energy Policy Institute of There may well be other energy mixes that could achieve an 80% or
Canada (EPIC), headed by former Cabinet minister David Emerson, greater reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. But in light of the
with a “singular focus on one task: to draft an energy strategy and transformative nature of the changes outlined in the Energy [R]evolution
policy recommendations.” This approach, however, is rooted in the scenarios, it is clear that a tweaking of the status quo—as proposed to
energy status quo, as shown by EPIC’s Guiding Principles, which date by the oil and gas industry and as envisioned in the Harper
include “advance the primacy of the Canada-United States energy government’s Energy Superpower ambitions anchored in “an ocean of oil-
relationship” and “help design regulatory processes that aid, rather soaked sand”—won’t even come close to getting the job done.
than impede, responsible energy development.”46
And many of Canada’s major think tanks and business groups have also 2.1.4 energy [r]evolution and the tar sands
joined in this call. The recent “Banff Dialogue” organized in April 2010
Unlike the electricity system, which is primarily regional, the market for
was a “group convened by Canada’s leading Think Tanks [which] included
oil is global. So in this case, we need to look at how the global Energy
representatives of major Canadian corporations involved with all forms of
[R]evolution scenario would affect the global demand for oil.
energy, members of the Energy Policy Institute of Canada, the Energy
Framework Initiative, the Canada Council of Chief Executives and the Canada already produces more oil than it consumes, so the Canadian
Canadian Chamber of Commerce” that came to the “unanimous view government’s Energy Superpower ambitions are premised on the
that there was a definite need for a ‘Canadian Clean Energy Strategy’ and world’s not being able to do without oil from the tar sands. This is
it is needed now.”47 echoed by companies like BP, that have been responding to criticism
of their ventures into unconventional oil by citing projected future
It is, of course, not surprising that the oil and gas industry would seek
energy needs from the International Energy Agency (IEA).49
to defend its interests (as it sees them now), in the face of criticism
from environmental organizations, First Nations, members of the
public, and shareholders concerned with the social and environmental references
implications of the status quo. 44 FOR EXAMPLE, IN PREFACING HER PRESENTATION ON THE ENERGY FRAMEWORK
INITIATIVE TO THE 2010 NATIONAL ENERGY BOARD–ORGANIZED ENERGY FUTURES
Indeed, its support for a national energy strategy in Canada is a CONFERENCE, THE PRESIDENT AND CEO OF THE CANADIAN ENERGY PIPELINE
ASSOCIATION, BARBARA KENNEY, ARGUED THAT A NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY WAS
welcome development, as the Energy [R]evolution scenarios described in “VITAL” FOR CANADA’S FUTURE.
this report are intended to inform the debate on such a strategy. 45 SEE: “SIX PILLARS OF ENERGY POLICY,” ONLINE AT
<HTTP://WWW.ENERGYFRAMEWORK.CA/PAPERS/SAMPLE-PAPER/?PAGE=5>.
It would be unacceptable, however, for such a debate to be limited to 46 SEE: <HTTP://WWW.CANADASENERGY.CA/GUIDING-PRINCIPLES/>.
47 CANADA SCHOOL OF ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT, TOWARDS A TRULY CANADIAN CLEAN
the backrooms dominated by industry lobbyists, or premised upon a ENERGY STRATEGY: SUMMARY OF THE BANFF CLEAN ENERGY DIALOGUE APRIL 8–10,
framework rooted in the status quo. A revolution in our energy system 2010, NATIONAL ROUND TABLE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY, PUBLIC POLICY
FORUM, AVAILABLE AT
is a fundamental prerequisite for our environmental and economic <HTTP://WWW.OREG.CA/WEB_DOCUMENTS/CANADIAN_CLEAN_ENERGY_STRATEGY.PDF>.
well-being, and needs an informed public debate. 48 G8 L’AQUILA DECLARATION, RESPONSIBLE LEADERSHIP FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE,
JULY 2009, SECTION 65.
49 SEE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE RESPONSE OF BP TO THE QUESTION “DOES THE WORLD NEED
At the L’Aquila G8 Summit in 2008, the Harper government OIL FROM THE OIL SANDS” ON PAGE 12 OF ITS OPERATING AT THE ENERGY FRONTIERS:
supported a commitment to an aggregate industrial country SUSTAINABILITY REVIEW 2009, WHICH EXPLICITLY CITES THE IEA’S REFERENCE
SCENARIO.
greenhouse gas reduction target of “80% or more by 2050 compared 50 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 44.

24
image A WORKER ASSEMBLES WIND
TURBINE ROTORS AT GANSU JINFENG

© GP/MARKEL REDONDO
WIND POWER EQUIPMENT CO. LTD. IN
JIUQUAN, GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.

implementing the energy [r]evolution |


The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2009 includes a business-as-usual production rising from 1.8 to 7.4 million barrels per day over the same
reference scenario in which the output from the Canadian tar sands period.56 In the IEA’s low-carbon scenario, total demand for oil in 2030
would triple over the next 20 years. This scenario, however, is is twelve million barrels per day lower than in its reference scenario, but
described as one which has “alarming consequences for climate still higher than 2008 levels.
change and energy security.”50
To cut back even further on the need for oil, the Energy [R]evolution
According to the IEA, the possible future that includes such a rapid scenarios tap into the large potential for improving
expansion of the tar sands “takes us inexorably towards a long-term the efficiency of the transport sector by shifting freight from road to
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in excess of 1,000 rail, expanding public transit, and by using much lighter, smaller and
parts per million CO2 equivalent. The CO2 concentration implied by the more efficient passenger vehicles.
reference scenario would result in the global average temperature rising
The other major factor reducing the demand for oil will be a switch
by up to 6 degrees Celsius. This would lead almost certainly to massive
to electric drive-trains in vehicles. In the Advanced Energy

CANADIAN POLICY ISSUES


climatic change, and irreparable damage to the planet.”51
[R]evolution scenario, the final energy share of electric vehicles on
This reference scenario that is used as justification for expanding tar sands the road increases to 4% by 2020, 19% by 2030 and to over 50%
operations was created as what the IEA Executive Director labeled a by 2050. Public transport systems will also increasingly use
“caution.”52 The IEA was actually advocating a scenario that it called a electricity to power their vehicles.
“low-carbon energy revolution,” which would have a 50% chance of
This reduces greenhouse gas emissions because the electricity sector
keeping the increase in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius
will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilization. By 2030, 60% of
above pre-industrial levels53 —the stated aim of the Copenhagen Accord
electricity globally will be produced from renewable sources, rising to
that came out of the climate change summit in December 2009.
95 per cent by 2050. A significant share of the fluctuating power
The IEA notes that its low-carbon scenario would also dramatically generation from wind and solar photovoltaic will be used to supply
cut air pollution and reduce fuel costs in the transport sector by $6.2 electricity to vehicle batteries and to produce hydrogen as a
trillion over the 2010–2030 period, helping to pay for the cost of secondary fuel in transport and industry.
making the change.
When combined, these factors eliminate any global need for any
The only real losers would be the corporations that invested in tar sands oil by 2030, and the demand for oil continues to fall even
Canada’s tar sands, as they are first up on the chopping block. The further by 2050.
IEA report found that the high capital costs of Canadian tar sands
projects meant that they accounted for over 85% of all of the figure 2.1: global demand for oil under four scenarios
upstream oil and gas projects in the world that were cancelled or
pushed back by at least 18 months globally in response to the recent
economic recession.54 And efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 120
under the IEA’s low-carbon scenario would reduce the global growth
of unconventional oil by 44%, “with Canadian oil sands particularly 100
millions of barrels of oil per day

heavily affected.”55
80
Even this, however, is a very risky strategy with respect to protecting
human and natural communities from dangerous levels of global warming. 60
In order to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, we
must keep the global temperature increase as far below 2°C as possible 40
rather than gamble on a 50/50 chance of missing this upper limit. As
noted in the introduction to this report, the latest science shows that a 20
warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels would pose unacceptable risks
to many of the world’s key natural and human systems. 0
2008 2030: IEA 2030: IEA 2030: 2030:
If rising temperatures are to be kept within acceptable limits, Reference Low Carbon Energy Advanced
Scenario Scenario Revolution Energy
greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced in line with the Energy Revolution
[R]evolution scenarios. This implies elimination of risky, high-carbon
unconventional sources such as the tar sands. •• UNCONVENTIONAL OIL
CONVENTIONAL OIL
The main demand for oil comes from the transport sector. This demand
is projected to increase substantially over the coming decades, requiring references
major investments in exploration and development of new supplies from 51 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 44.
52 CITED IN: IEA, NEWS RELEASE, 10 NOVEMBER 2009.
increasingly risky and expensive sources. In the IEA’s reference 53 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 196.
scenario, demand for oil rises from 84.7 million barrels per day in 2008 54 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, TABLE 3.2, P. 142.
55 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 216.
to 105.2 million barrels per day in 2030, with unconventional oil 56 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, P. 81.

25
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |

2.2 ftsm: a support scheme for renewable power experience of feed-in tariffs
in developing countries
• Feed-in tariffs are seen as the best way forward, especially in
This section outlines a Greenpeace proposal for a feed-in tariff system developing countries. By 2009 this system had incentivised 75% of
in developing countries whose additional costs would be financed by PV capacity worldwide and 45% of wind capacity.
developed nations. The financial resources for this could come from a
• Based on experience, feed-in tariffs are the most effective
combination of innovative sources, could be managed by the
mechanism to create a stable framework to build a domestic
Copenhagen Green Climate Fund (that still needs to be established),
market for renewables. They have the lowest investment risk,
and the level of contributions should be set through the GDR
highest technology diversity, lowest windfall profits for mature
framework (see 2.3).
technologies and attract a broad spectrum of investors.61
Both Energy [R]evolution scenarios show that renewable electricity
• The main argument against them is the increase in electricity prices for
FTSM

generation has huge environmental and economic benefits. However


households and industry, as the extra costs are shared across all
its investment and generation costs, especially in developing countries,
customers. This is particularly difficult for developing countries, where
will remain higher than those of existing coal or gas-fired power
many people can’t afford to spend more money for electricity services.
stations for the next five to ten years. To bridge this cost gap a
specific support mechanism for the power sector is needed. The Feed-
in Tariff Support Mechanism (FTSM) is a concept conceived by For developing countries, feed-in laws would be an ideal mechanism
Greenpeace International.57 The aim is the rapid expansion of to support the implementation of new renewable energies. The extra
renewable energy in developing countries with financial support from costs, however, which are usually covered in Europe, for example, by a
industrialised nations. very minor increase in the overall electricity price for consumers, are
still seen as an obstacle. In order to enable technology transfer from
Since the FTSM concept was first presented in 2008, the idea has
Annex 1 countries to developing countries, a mix of a feed-in law,
received considerable support from a variety of different stakeholders.
international finance and emissions trading could be used to establish
The Deutsche Bank Group´s Climate Change Advisors, for example,
a locally based renewable energy infrastructure and industry with the
have developed a proposal based on FTSM called “GET FiT”.
assistance of OECD countries.
Announced in April 2010, this took on board major aspects of the
Greenpeace concept. Finance for renewable energy projects is one of the main obstacles in
developing countries. While large scale projects have fewer funding
problems, there are difficulties for small, community based projects, even
2.2.1 bankable renewable energy support schemes
though they have a high degree of public support. The experiences from
Since the early development of renewable energies within the power micro credits for small hydro projects in Bangladesh, for example, as
sector, there has been an ongoing debate about the best and most well as wind farms in Denmark and Germany, show how both strong
effective type of support scheme. The European Commission published local participation and acceptance can be achieved. The main reasons for
a survey in December 2005 which provided a good overview of the this are the economic benefits flowing to the local community and
experience so far. This concluded that feed-in tariffs are by far the careful project planning based on good local knowledge and
most efficient and successful mechanism. A more recent update of understanding. When the community identifies the project rather than
this report, presented in March 2010 at the IEA Renewable Energy the project identifying the community, the result is generally faster
Workshop by the Fraunhofer Institute58, underscores this conclusion. bottom-up growth of the renewables sector.
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change also
concluded that feed-in tariffs “achieve larger deployment at lower
costs”. Globally more than 40 countries have adopted some version
of the system.
Although the organisational form of these tariffs differs from country
to country, there are certain clear criteria which emerge as essential
for creating a successful renewable energy policy. At the heart of
these is a reliable, bankable support scheme for renewable projects
which provides long term stability and certainty.59 Bankable support
schemes result in lower cost projects because they lower the risk for references
both investors and equipment suppliers. The cost of wind-powered 57 IMPLEMENTING THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION, OCTOBER 2008, SVEN TESKE,
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.
electricity in Germany is up to 40% cheaper than in the United 58 EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT LONG-TERM ORIENTED RE SUPPORT POLICIES, MARIO
Kingdom60, for example, because the support system is more secure RAGWITZ, MARCH 2010.
59 ‘THE SUPPORT OF ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES’, EUROPEAN
and reliable. COMMISSION, 2005.
60 SEE ABOVE REPORT, P. 27, FIGURE 4.
61 EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT LONG-TERM ORIENTED RE SUPPORT POLICIES,
FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE, MARIO RAGWITZ, MARCH 2010.

26
image LE NORDAIS WINDMILL PARK, ONE
OF THE MOST IMPORTANT IN AMERICA,
LOCATED ON THE GASPÈ PENINSULA IN
CAP-CHAT, QUEBEC, CANADA.

© GP

implementing the energy [r]evolution |


The four main elements for successful renewable energy support The average additional costs for introducing the FTSM between 2010 and
schemes are therefore: 2020 under the Energy [R]evolution scenario are estimated to be between
5 and 3 cents/kWh and 5 and 2 cents/kWh under the advanced version.
• A clear, bankable pricing system.
The cost per tonne of CO2 avoided would therefore be around $25.
• Priority access to the grid with clear identification of who is
The design of the FTSM would need to ensure that there were stable
responsible for the connection, and how it is incentivised.
flows of funds to renewable energy suppliers. There may therefore
• Clear, simple administrative and planning permission procedures. need to be a buffer between fluctuating CO2 emission prices and stable
• Public acceptance/support. long term feed-in tariffs. This would be possible through the proposed
Greenhouse Development Rights scheme, which would create a stable
The first is fundamentally important, but it is no good if you don’t income for non-OECD countries (see Chapter 2.3, Table 2.7 and 2.8).
have the other three elements as well. The FTSM will need to secure payment of the required feed-in tariffs

FTSM
over the whole lifetime (about 20 years) of each project.
2.2.2 the feed-in tariff support mechanism In order to be eligible, all renewable energy projects must have a
The basic aim of the FTSM is to facilitate the introduction of feed-in clear set of environmental criteria which are part of the national
laws in developing countries by providing additional financial resources licensing procedure in the country where the project will generate
on a scale appropriate to the circumstances of each country. For those electricity. Those criteria will have to meet a minimum environmental
countries with higher levels of potential renewable capacity, the creation standard defined by an independent monitoring group. If there are
of a new sectoral no-lose mechanism generating emission reduction already acceptable criteria developed these should be adopted rather
credits for sale to Annex I countries, with the proceeds being used to than reinventing the wheel. The members of the monitoring group
offset part of the additional cost of the feed-in tariff system, could be would include NGOs, energy and finance experts as well as members
appropriate. For others there would need to be a more directly funded of the governments involved. Funding will not be made available for
approach to paying for the additional costs to consumers of the tariff. speculative investments, only as soft loans for FTSM projects.
The ultimate objective would be to provide bankable and long term The FTSM would also seek to create the conditions for private sector
stable support for the development of a local renewable energy market. actors, such as local banks and energy service companies,
The tariffs would bridge the gap between conventional power generation to gain experience in technology development, project development,
costs and those of renewable generation. project financing and operation and maintenance in order to develop
track records which would help reduce barriers to further renewable
the key parameters for feed in tariffs under FTSM are: energy development.

• Variable tariffs for different renewable energy technologies, depending


on their costs and technology maturity, paid for 20 years. the key parameters for the FTSM fund will be:

• Payments based on actual generation in order to achieve properly • The mechanism will guarantee payment of the feed-in tariffs over a
maintained projects with high performance ratios. period of 20 years as long as the project is operated properly.

• Payment of the ‘additional costs’ for renewable generation based on • The mechanism will receive annual income from emissions trading
the German system, where the fixed tariff is paid minus the or from direct funding.
wholesale electricity price which all generators receive. • The mechanism will pay feed-in tariffs annually only on the basis of
• Payment could include an element for infrastructure costs such as generated electricity.
grid connection, grid re-enforcement or the development of a smart • Every FTSM project must have a professional maintenance
grid. A specific regulation needs to define when the payments for company to ensure high availability.
infrastructure costs are needed in order to achieve a timely market
expansion of renewable power generation. • The grid operator must do its own monitoring and send generation
data to the FTSM fund. Data from the project managers and grid
A developing country which wants to take part in the FTSM would operators will be compared regularly
need to establish clear regulations for the following: to check consistency.
• Guaranteed access to the electricity grid for renewable
electricity projects.
• Establishment of a feed-in law based on successful examples.
• Transparent access to all data needed to establish the feed-in tariff,
including full records of generated electricity.
• Clear planning and licensing procedures.
27
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |

figure 2.2: ftsm scheme

FTSM
roles and responsibilities
FTSM SCHEME

developing country: (inter-) national finance institute(s) OECD country


Legislation: Organizing and Monitoring: Legislation:
• feed-in law • organize financial flow • CO2 credits under CDM
• guaranteed grid access • monitoring • tax from Cap & Trade
• licensing • providing soft loans • auctioning CO2 Certificates
• guarantee the payment of the feed-in tariff

2.2.3 financing the energy [r]evolution with ftsm financial parameters From the beginning of the financial crisis in
mid-2008 it became clear that inflation rates and capital costs were
Based on both Energy [R]evolution Scenarios for developing (non-
likely to change very fast. The cost calculations in this programme do
OECD) countries, a calculation has been done to estimate the costs and
not take into account changes in interest rates, capital costs or
benefits of an FTSM programme using the following assumptions:
inflation; all cost parameters are nominal based on 2009 levels.
power generation costs The average level of feed-in tariffs, excluding
key results The FTSM programme would cover 624TWh by 2015
solar, has been calculated on the assumption that the majority of
and 4,960 TWh by 2030 of new renewable electricity generation and
renewable energy sources require support payments of between 7 and 15
save 77.6 GtCO2 between 2010 and 2030. This works out at 3.8
cents per kilowatt-hour. While wind and bio energy power generation can
GtCO2 per year under the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario and 82
operate on tariffs of below 10 cents per kWh, other technologies, such as
GtCO2 or 4.1 GtCO2 per year under the advanced version. With an
geothermal and concentrated solar power, will need slightly more. Exact
average CO2 price of $23.1 per tonne, the total programme would
tariffs should be calculated on the basis of specific market prices within
cost $1.62 trillion. This works out at $76.3 billion annually under the
each country. The feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic projects reflects
basic version and $1.29 trillion or $61.4 billion annually under the
current market price projections. The average conventional power
advanced scenario.
generation costs are based on new coal and gas power plants without
direct or indirect subsidies. Under the GDR scheme, this would mean that the EU-27 countries
would need to cover 22.4% ($ billion 289) of these costs, or $14.4
specific CO2 reduction per kWh The assumed CO2 reduction per
annually. The costs for the USA would amount to
kWh from switching to renewables is crucial for calculating the
$24.9 billion each year. India, on the other hand, would receive $13
specific cost per tonne of CO2 saved. In non-OECD countries the
billion per year between 2010 and 2030 to finance the domestic
current level of CO2 emissions for power generation averages
uptake of renewable power generation.
871 gCO2/kWh, and will reduce to 857 gCO2/kWh by 2030 (see
Reference scenario Chapter 6). The average level of CO2 emissions The FTSM will bridge the gap between now and 2030, when
over the period from 2010 to 2020 is therefore 864 gCO2/kWh. electricity generation costs for all renewable energy technologies are
projected to be lower than conventional coal and gas power plants.
table 2.1: assumptions for ftsm calculations However, this case study has calculated even lower generation costs
for conventional power generation than we have assumed in our price
KEY AVERAGE AVERAGE projections for the Energy [R]evolution scenario (see Chapter 5, page
PARAMETER FEED-IN FEED-IN
TARIFF EXCL. TARIFF FOR 52, Table 5.3.). This is because we have excluded CO2 emission costs.
SOLAR PV SOLAR PV If these are taken into account coal power plants would have
(ct/kWh) (ct/kWh)
generation costs of 10.8 $cents/kWh by 2020 and 12.5 cents/kWh by
2010 12 20
2030, as against the FTSM assumption of 10 cents/kWh over the
2020 11 15 same timescale. However, the advanced Energy [R]evolution case
2030 10 10 takes those higher costs into account and reaches economies of scale
28
image A WOMAN STUDIES SOLAR POWER SYSTEMS AT
THE BAREFOOT COLLEGE. THE COLLEGE SPECIALISES
IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDES A

© GP/EMMA STONER
SPACE WHERE STUDENTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD
CAN LEARN TO UTILISE RENEWABLE ENERGY. THE
STUDENTS TAKE THEIR NEW SKILLS HOME AND GIVE
THEIR VILLAGES CLEAN ENERGY. 2

implementing the energy [r]evolution |


for renewable power generation around 5 years earlier. Therefore, in more than 1700 gw renewables for developing countries
the second period in the advanced case, the annual costs of the FTSM
Overall, the FTSM for non-OECD countries will bring more than
programm drop significantly under the basic version even with much
1,700 GW (2,300 GW in the advanced version) of new renewable
higher renewable electricity volume.
energy power plants on line, creating about 5 million jobs with an
As the difference between renewable and coal electricity generation annual cost of under $15,000 per job per year.
costs are projected to decrease, more renewable electricity can be
financed with roughly the same amount of money.

figure 2.3: feed-in tariffs versus conventional power generation

FTSM SCHEME
35

30

25
cents/kWh

20

15

10

0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030



AVERAGE FEED-IN TARIFF - EXCL SOLAR
AVERAGE FEED-IN TARIFF - SOLAR

• AVERAGE CONVENTIONAL POWER GENERATION COSTS

table 2.2: ftsm key parameters - energy [r]evolution table 2.3: ftsm key parameters - adv energy [r]evolution

KEY CONVENTIONAL INTEREST SPECIFIC REDUCTION KEY CONVENTIONAL INTEREST SPECIFIC REDUCTION
PARAMETER POWER GENERATION RATES (%) PER KWH (gCO2/kWh) PARAMETER POWER GENERATION RATES (%) PER KWH (gCO2/kWh)
COSTS (ct/kWh) COSTS (ct/kWh)
2010 7 4 0.7 2010 7 4 0.7
2020 10 4 0.7 2020 11 4 0.7
2030 10 4 0.7 2030 12.5 4 0.7

table 2.4: ftsm programme

KEY RESULTS YEAR AVERAGE CO2 COST AVERAGE ANNUAL TOTAL ANNUAL TOTAL CO2 TOTAL COSTS
TOTAL NON-OECD PER TONNE [$/ TCO2] CO2 EMISSION COSTS CERTIFICATES PER PERIOD
CREDITS (BILLION US$) PER PERIODE (BILLION $)
(MILLION T CO2) (MILLION T CO2)
Period 1 E[R] 2010-2019 27.8 2,080.4 57.9 20,804 579
Period 1 adv E[R] 2010-2019 26.3 2,199.3 57.9 21,993 579
Period 2 E[R] 2020-2030 18.3 5,165.8 94.7 56,824 1,042
Period 2 adv E[R] 2020-2030 11.9 5,461.0 64.8 60,071 713
Period 1+2 E[R] 2010-2030 23.1 3,623.1 76.3 77,628 1,621
Period 1+2 adv E[R] 2010-2030 19.1 3,830.1 61.4 82,064 1,292
29
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |

table 2.5: renewable power for non-oecd countries under ftsm programme

ELECTRICITY 2007 2015 2020 2030 INSTALLED 2007 2015 2020 2030
GENERATION CAPACITY
(TWh/a) (GW)

Wind E[R] 23.6 307.0 854.5 2,238.0 Wind E[R] 15 138 347 865
PV E[R] 0.2 22.0 105.4 673.0 PV E[R] 0 14 59 383
Biomass E[R] 41.2 218.0 488.5 950.0 Biomass E[R] 7 44 100 173
Geothermal E[R] 21.6 50.5 111.0 251.0 Geothermal E[R] 4 9 19 44
Solar Thermal E[R] 0.0 21.7 112.1 798.0 Solar Thermal E[R] 0 9 36 130
FTSM SCHEME

Ocean Energy E[R] 0.0 4.6 27.4 48.5 Ocean Energy E[R] 0 1 8 14
Total - new RE E[R] 86.7 623.8 1,699.0 4,958.5 Total - new RE E[R] 26.2 214.1 570.7 1,610.3
Wind adv E[R] 23.6 312.0 1,092.0 2,949.0 Wind adv E[R] 15 140 443 1,142
PV adv E[R] 0.2 22.0 204.0 998.0 PV adv E[R] 0 14 114 560
Biomass adv E[R] 41.2 218.0 487.0 946.0 Biomass adv E[R] 7 44 100 173
Geothermal adv E[R] 21.6 55.4 164.0 715.0 Geothermal adv E[R] 4 10 28 117
Solar Thermal adv E[R] 0.0 24.7 281.0 1,550.0 Solar Thermal adv E[R] 0 10 91 255
Ocean Energy adv E[R] 0.0 4.6 67.0 237.0 Ocean Energy adv E[R] 0 1 20 70
Total - new RE adv E[R] 86.7 636.7 2,295.0 7,395.0 Total - new RE adv E[R] 26.2 218.1 795.1 2,316.2

2.3 the greenhouse development rights framework 2.3.1 calculating greenhouse gas emissions under
the greenhouse development rights framework
The Energy [R]evolution in Canada will be part of a global
transformation of the way we produce, distribute and consume energy. The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework (GDR) calculates
As one of the wealthiest countries in the world and as a nation that national shares of global greenhouse gas obligations based on a
has contributed disproportionately towards creating the current combination of responsibility (contribution to climate change) and
problem, Canada must contribute its fair share to the global Energy capacity (ability to pay). Crucially, the GDR takes inequality within
[R]evolution. countries into account and calculates national obligations on the basis of
the estimated capacity and responsibility of individuals. Individuals with
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios present a range of pathways
incomes below a “development threshold”—specified in the default case
toward a future based on an increasing proportion of renewable
as $7,500 per capita annual income, adjusted for purchasing power parity
energy, but such routes are only likely to be followed if their
(PPP)—are exempted from climate-related obligations. Individuals with
corresponding investment costs are shared fairly under some form of
incomes above that level are expected to contribute to the costs of global
global climate regime. To demonstrate how this would be possible, we
climate policy in proportion to their capacity (amount of income over the
have used the Greenhouse Development Rights Framework (GDR),
threshold) and responsibility (cumulative CO2 emissions since 1990,
designed by EcoEquity and the Stockholm Environment Institute.62
excluding emissions corresponding to consumption below the threshold).
The GDR provides a tool for distributing both emission reduction and
The calculations of capacity and responsibility are then combined into
finance targets equitably among the countries of the world.
a joint responsibility and capacity indicator (RCI) by taking the
Greenpeace advocates that industrialized countries, as a group, should
average of the two values. Thus, for example, as shown in Table 2.6,
reduce their emissions by at least 40% by 2020 (from 1990 levels),
Canada, with 0.5% of the world’s population, has 2.6% of the
and that developing countries, as a group, should reduce their
world’s capacity in 2010, 3.1% of the world’s responsibility and
emissions by at least 15% by 2020, compared to their projected
2.9% of the calculated RCI. This means that in 2010, Canada would
growth in emissions. On top of these commitments, Greenpeace urges
be responsible for 3.1% of the costs of global climate policy.
industrialized countries to provide financial resources of at least
US$140 billion per year to fund climate change mitigation and Because the system calculates obligations based on the characteristics
adaptation in developing countries. Below, we show how the GDR will of individuals, and all countries have at least some individuals with
work for implementing the Energy [R]evolution scenarios. incomes over the development threshold, the GDR would eliminate the
overarching formal distinction in the Kyoto Protocol between Annex I
and non–Annex I countries. There would of course still be key
differences between rich and poor countries, as rich countries would
references
62 KARTHA, S., P. BAER, T. ATHANASIOU AND E. KEMP-BENEDICT, “THE GREENHOUSE
be expected to pay for reductions made in other countries as well as
DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS FRAMEWORK”, CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1(2):147-165 (2009). make steep domestic emissions reductions, while poor countries could
30
image CHECKING THE SOLAR PANELS

© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA
ON TOP OF THE GREENPEACE POSITIVE
ENERGY TRUCK IN BRAZIL.

implementing the energy [r]evolution |


table 2.6: GDR factors and RCIs for IEA regions and select countries, for 2010, 2020 and 2030

REGION/COUNTRY POPULATION INCOME USD /A CAPACITY RESPONSIBILITY RCI RCI RCI


(2010) (2010) (2010) (2010) (2010) (2020) (2030)

OECD 17.6% 32,413 86.6% 75.3% 80.9% 72.8% 63.7%


North America 6.6% 37,128 39.8% 41.5% 40.6% 36.9% 32.9%
United States 4.5% 45,640 35.8% 36.8% 36.3% 32.7% 28.9%
Mexico 1.6% 12,408 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Canada 0.5% 38,472 2.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%
Europe 8.0% 29,035 29.3% 22.2% 25.8% 23.2% 20.1%
Pacific 3.0% 30,961 17.5% 11.5% 14.5% 12.7% 10.7%

GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS


Japan 1.9% 33,422 14.3% 7.3% 10.8% 9.2% 7.4%
Non-OECD 82.4% 5,137 13.4% 24.7% 19.1% 27.2% 36.3%
E.Europe/Eurasia 4.9% 11,089 1.5% 7.8% 4.7% 5.2% 5.7%
Russia 2.0% 15,031 0.9% 5.9% 3.4% 3.5% 3.8%
Asia 52.5% 4,424 5.6% 7.2% 6.4% 12.7% 20.1%
China 19.7% 5,899 2.9% 4.3% 3.6% 8.3% 13.6%
India 17.2% 2,818 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.3%
Middle East 14.9% 2,617 0.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0%
Africa 3.1% 12,098 2.4% 4.8% 3.6% 4.3% 4.8%
Latin America 7.0% 8,645 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6%
Brazil 2.9% 9,442 1.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%
World 100.0% 9,929 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
European Union 7.3% 30,471 28.1% 21.8% 25.0% 22.6% 19.6%

expect the majority of the incremental costs for emissions reductions standard GDR has been slightly modified to account for the most recent
required within their borders to be paid for by wealthier countries. IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 baseline emissions and economic
Similarly, the national obligations calculated through the GDR could growth scenario up to 2030, and for the target pathways defined by the
be used to allocate contributions to a global adaptation fund; again, Energy [R]evolution and Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
even poor countries would have some positive obligations to Because the GDR calculates the share of global climate obligation for
contribute, but they would expect to be net recipients of adaptation each country, it can therefore be used to calculate (against a baseline)
funds, while rich countries would be net contributors. the amount of reductions required for each country to meet an
international target. Figure 2.4 shows the global obligation required to
A detailed description of the GDR can be found in Baer et al., The
move from the IEA baseline to the emissions pathway in the Energy
Greenhouse Development Rights Framework.63 For this study, the
[R]evolution scenario (declining to 25 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide

figure 2.4: emission reduction wedges under the energy figure 2.5: emission reduction wedges under the advanced
[r]evolution scenario energy [r]evolution scenario
45,000 45,000
40,000 40,000
fossil CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)

fossil CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)

35,000 35,000
30,000 30,000
25,000 25,000
20,000 20,000
15,000 15,000
10,000 10,000
5,000 5,000
0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

references
63 THE GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHT FRAMEWORK” PUBLISHED IN NOVEMBER
•• BAU
UNITED STATES
•• EITs
CHINA
2008, BAER ET AL. 2008
•• OECD EUROPE
OTHER OECD
•• INDIA
OTHER NON-OECD
31
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |

[GtCO2] in 2020 and 21 GtCO2 in 2030), with the reduction divided into emissions (dotted blue and green lines), with the difference resulting from
“wedges” proportional to each country’s share. an international obligation to fund reductions in other countries. In India
and China, by contrast, the allocation of permits is greater than the
Figure 2.5 shows the global emissions reductions required under the
estimated emissions, indicating that other countries will need to support a
Energy [R]evolution scenario, divided into “wedges” proportional to
reduction from the level indicated by the allocation (solid lines) and
each country or region’s responsibility and capacity indicator. Note
projected emissions (dashed lines).
that the size of each wedge in percentage terms changes over time,
consistent with Table 2.6. The largest share is for the United States, Because the forward calculation of the responsibility and capacity
followed by Europe, while the wedges for India and China increase indicator (RCI) depends on the budget that is allocated, the percentage
over time. Africa and Developing Asia have the smallest wedges. reductions of different countries and regions are slightly different under
the Energy [R]evolution and Advanced Energy [R]evolution pathways.
The charts in Figure 2.6 show, for the US, European Union (EU)
Nevertheless, because neither capacity nor responsibility from
countries, India and China, the relationship between domestic emissions
GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS

1990–2010 varies in the two scenarios, the RCIs for specific countries
reductions under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios and the allocation of
are still quite similar, and thus the actual allocations going forward
responsibility through the GDR framework. For the EU and the US, the
differ between the two scenarios primarily because of the stricter targets
allocations (solid blue and green lines) are well below the estimated
in the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario.

figure 2.6: annual ghg emissions and reduction pathways allocated


under the GDR system for the European Union, USA, China and India

European Union United States


5,000 6,000
annual CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)

annual CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)

4,000 5,000
percent of CO2 emissions

percent of CO2 emissions


4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000

1,000
1,000

0 0
-500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

China India
12,000 4,000
annual CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)

annual CO2 emissions (MtCO2)

10,000
percent of CO2 emissions

percent of CO2 emissions

3,000
8,000

6,000 2,000

4,000
1,000
2,000

0 0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

BUSINESS AS USUAL
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION PATHWAY
GDRS ALLOCATION UNDER ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION PATHWAY
GDRS ALLOCATION UNDER ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION

32
image WIND TURBINES AT THE NAN
WIND FARM IN NAN’AO. GUANGDONG
PROVINCE HAS ONE OF THE BEST WIND

© GP/XUAN CANXIONG
RESOURCES IN CHINA AND IS ALREADY
HOME TO SEVERAL INDUSTRIAL SCALE
WIND FARMS.
2

implementing the energy [r]evolution |


It is also important to note that because a GDR allocates obligations Table 2.7 presents an overview of the CO2 emissions rights, by country
as a percentage of the global commitment, measured in megatonnes and/or region, based on the global Energy [R]evolution pathway toward
of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) in this example, a country with lower per a level of 27 GtCO2 in 2020 and 21.9 GtCO2 in 2030. The advanced
capita emissions will appear to have a more stringent reduction version shown in Table 2.8 has a stricter reduction pathway, falling to
target, when its target is stated in terms of a percentage of 1990 18.3 GtCO2 by 2030, slightly more than ten years ahead of the basic
emissions by 2020 or 2030 However, the GDR calculation does not scenario. The GDR system allocates the same emissions rights for each
specify the split between domestic and internationally supported country under the Advanced Energy [R]evolution pathway, but this
reductions. Since we assume that emissions trading or a similar scenario also results in a faster uptake of renewable energy, enabling
mechanism will lead to a rough equalization of the marginal cost of developing countries to leapfrog from conventional to renewable energy
reductions, it is in essence the “per capita tonnes of reductions,” and faster. This pathway might also reduce stranded investments resulting
thus per capita costs, which are made comparable (not equal) from closed fossil fuel power stations, as developing countries will be
through the calculation of the RCI. With this in mind, we can see able to build up the energy infrastructure with new technologies from the

GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS


under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that the OECD nations have a very beginning.
mitigation requirement equal to a reduction to 45% below 1990
In total, all the OECD countries will have cumulative emissions rights
levels in 2020 and 2% of 1990 levels in 2030.
between 1990 and 2030 of 8.14 GtCO2 and 7.3 5 GtCO2 under the
Based on the Energy [R]evolution pathway for the three OECD Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. The scenarios show that
regions, the total domestic emissions would add up to 9.9 gigatonnes 21% (Energy [R]evolution) or 27% (Advanced Energy [R]evolution)
of CO2 (GtCO2) by 2020 and 7.2 GtCO2 by 2030. Under the GDR, the of those emissions reductions will have to come from international
OECD regions would have an emissions budget of 8.14 GtCO2 by actions, as domestic emissions are still too high. In summary, the
2020 and 2.9 GtCO2 by 2030. Therefore, the richer nations have to OECD countries will have to finance a saving of 45 GtCO2 for
finance the savings of 1.7 GtCO22 by 2020 and 4.3 GtCO2 by 2030 in non–OECD countries. A possible mechanism to support the
non–OECD countries. introduction of renewable power generation in those countries—
crucial to the Energy [R]evolution scenarios—would be the feed-in
The non–OECD countries would in aggregate see their emissions
tariff support mechanism described above.
allocation rise from 195% of 1990 levels in 2020 to 200% in 2030.
In MtCO2, China’s emissions allocation would rise from about 8,200
in 2015 to about 8,500 in 2020 and grow only slightly more by 2.3.2 applying gdr to the energy [r]evolution scenarios
2030. India by contrast would see its allocation rise from 1,600
It is obvious that, given their huge responsibilities and large
MtCO2 today to about 2,000 by 2020 and 2,800 by 2030. Within the
capacities, industrialized countries have high responsibility and
OECD, the US allocation would fall to 52% of 1990 levels by 2020
capacity indicators (RCIs). Therefore the burden of industrialized
and to 2% by 2030, while the EU’s allocation would fall from 84%
countries to reduce emissions extends well beyond domestic emissions
today to 33% of 1990 levels by 2020 and -3% of 1990 levels by
reductions. Tables 2.7 and 2.8 indicate the difference between
2030. A negative emissions allocation is simply a requirement to buy
countries’ emissions under the ER scenario and the Advanced ER
a larger quantity of emission permits and/or support a larger amount
scenario, and the emissions reductions they would be responsible for if
of mitigation internationally.
the RCI is used to distribute emissions reduction obligations as
Under the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, which has global compared to projected emissions, to reach the total level of emissions
emissions falling to 25 GtCO2 by 2020 instead of to 27 GtCO2 as in both scenarios.
under the basic E[R] scenario, and then to 18 GtCO2 instead of to 22
The difference between the domestic emissions under the E[R]
by 2030, reductions are correspondingly steeper. The OECD countries’
scenarios and the emissions under the Advanced E[R] scenarios
allocation of emission rights falls to 19% of 1990 levels by 2020
defines the responsibility of countries to fund the implementation of
and to -22% by 2030, with the US share being 20% and -24%,
the Energy [R]evolution scenario in developing countries.
respectively, and the EU’s share 12% and -22%. China’s emissions
allocation peaks at 8,300 MtCO2 (instead of 8,500 under the basic As an example, under the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, Canada
scenario) and falls to 7,300 MtCO2 by 2030; India, however, changes would have the right to emit 349 million tonnes of energy-related
little from its allowances under the less stringent global pathway. greenhouse gases in 2020, but would actually be emitting 434 million
tonnes of energy-related greenhouse gases. Therefore, Canada would be
For an interesting comparison in terms of relatively wealthy
responsible for financing an additional 85 million tonnes of reductions
“developing” countries, which are currently completely excluded from
outside of the country, through means such as the feed-in tariff support
binding targets under the Kyoto protocol, consider Brazil and Mexico:
mechanism described above. By 2030, Canada would have the right to
both see their allocation falling immediately to below their 2010 levels.
emit 106 million tonnes of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, but
In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the drop is about a 15% reduction
even under the aggressive Advanced scenario would still be emitting 290
below 2010 levels by 2020; in the Advanced Energy [R]evolution
million tonnes; this would result in the requirement to finance 184 million
scenario, the drop is about a 30% reduction below 2010 levels.
tonnes worth of emissions elsewhere.

33
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

2
implementing the energy [r]evolution |

table 2.7: greenhouse development rights framework (GDR) - applied to the energy [r]evolution scenario

1990 2015 2020 2030


FOSSIL CO2 EMISSION GDR DOMESTIC MITIGATION GDR DOMESTIC MITIGATION GDR DOMESTIC MITIGATION
IN [MT CO2] EMISSION EMISSION FUND EMISSION EMISSION FUND EMISSION EMISSION FUND
RIGHTS RIGHTS RIGHTS RIGHTS RIGHTS RIGHTS
UNDER UNDER UNDER
ADV. E[R] ADV. E[R] ADV. E[R]

OECD 11,405 10,834 11,716 -882 8,143 9,919 -1,775 2,926 7,253 -4,327
North America 5,756 5,732 6,094 -361 4,357 5,223 -865 1,740 3,655 -1,915
United States 5,009 4,847 5,183 -336 3,618 4,393 -775 1,278 3,043 -1,765
Mexico 302 406 394 12 361 363 -2 276 279 -2
Canada 445 479 516 -37 378 466 -88 186 334 -148
GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS

Europe 4,026 3,263 3,642 -379 2,394 2,947 -553 648 2,209 -1,561
Pacific 1,623 1,838 1,980 -142 1,392 1,749 -357 538 1,389 -851
Non-OECD 9,542 18,023 28,308 885 18,587 16,810 1,777 19,037 14,707 4,330
Transition Economies 4,158 2,598 2,382 216 2,418 1,931 487 2,077 1,440 637
Asia 3,596 11,734 11,170 564 12,498 11,526 972 13,284 10,252 3,032
China 2,277 8,226 7,830 396 8,503 8,033 470 8,065 6,557 1,508
India 607 1,712 1,626 86 2,054 1,807 247 2,861 2,035 826
Other Asia 712 1,796 1,714 82 1,940 1,686 254 2,358 1,660 698
Africa 566 962 1,001 39 922 1,013 91 887 1,031 143
Middle East 608 1,661 1,555 105 1,768 1,439 329 1,978 1,248 730
Latin America 613 1,069 1,030 39 981 901 80 811 736 75
World 20,947 28,857 28,854 26,730 26,729 21,963 21,960

table 2.8: greenhouse development rights framework (GDR) - applied to the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario

1990 2015 2020 2030


FOSSIL CO2 EMISSION GDR DOMESTIC MITIGATION GDR DOMESTIC MITIGATION GDR DOMESTIC MITIGATION
IN [MT CO2] EMISSION EMISSION FUND EMISSION EMISSION FUND EMISSION EMISSION FUND
RIGHTS RIGHTS RIGHTS RIGHTS RIGHTS RIGHTS
UNDER UNDER UNDER
ADV. E[R] ADV. E[R] ADV. E[R]

OECD 11,405 10,524 11,317 -793 7,359 9,327 -1,969 911 5,941 -5,029
North America 5,756 5,575 5,841 -266 3,956 4,749 -793 694 2,724 -2,030
United States 5,009 4,709 4,942 -233 3,267 3,965 -698 370 2,188 -1,818
Mexico 302 399 396 3 341 350 -9 218 246 -29
Canada 445 468 503 -36 349 434 -85 106 290 -184
Europe 4,026 3,160 3,488 -328 2,134 2,908 -774 -11 1,931 -1,942
Pacific 1,623 1,789 1,988 -199 1,269 1,671 -402 229 1,286 -1,057
Non-OECD 9,542 17,892 17,109 783 18,161 16,179 1,983 17,459 12,436 5,022
Transition Economies 4,158 2,571 2,382 189 2,342 1,906 436 1,837 1,303 534
Asia 3,596 11,671 11,142 529 12,266 11,067 1,199 12,301 8,485 3,817
China 2,277 8,178 7,813 366 8,323 7,875 448 7,324 5,744 1,580
India 607 1,709 1,620 90 2,039 1,524 515 2,742 1,332 1,410
Other Asia 712 1,784 1,709 74 1,904 1,667 236 2,236 1,409 827
Africa 566 953 998 44 895 970 74 804 889 85
Middle East 608 1,646 1,571 75 1,729 1,393 336 1,857 1,124 733
Latin America 613 1,051 1,016 34 929 843 86 659 636 23
World 20,947 28,417 28,426 25,520 25,506 18,370 18,377

34
nuclear power and climate protection
GLOBAL A FALSE SOLUTION TO CLIMATE NUCLEAR POWER BLOCKS SOLUTIONS THE DANGERS OF NUCLEAR POWER
PROTECTION SAFETY RISKS

3 “safety and security


risks, radioactive
waste, nuclear
image SIGN ON A RUSTY DOOR AT CHERNOBYL ATOMIC STATION.
© DMYTRO/DREAMSTIME

proliferation...”
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN

35
3 Nuclear energy is a relatively minor industry with major problems. It $1000/kW installed.67 Nuclear vendors in Canada and internationally
covers just one sixteenth of the world’s primary energy consumption, have been unable to meet these cost targets. In 2008, US business
nuclear power and climate protection |

a share set to decline over the coming decades. The average age of analysts Moody’s put the cost of nuclear investment as high as
operating commercial nuclear reactors is 23 years,64 so more power $7,500/kWe.68 In 2009, the Ontario government suspended its
stations are being shut down than started. In 2008, world nuclear procurement of new reactors when its competitive bidding process
production fell by 2%, compared to 2006, and the number of revealed new reactors were three to four times more expensive than
operating reactors as of January 2010 was 436, eight fewer than at expected.69 The AECL’s Advanced CANDU design was reported to
the historical peak of 2002.65 cost $10,000/kW, or $26 billion, for a 2,400-MW station. This is ten
times more than AECL’s 2002 cost projection for the Advanced
In terms of new power stations, the amount of nuclear capacity added
CANDU. Areva’s EPR design was reported to cost $7,375KWh or
annually between 2000 and 2009 was on average 2,500 megawatts
$23.6 billion for a 3200 MW station.70 Building 1,400 large reactors
(MW). This was six times less than wind power (14,500 MW per
of 1,000 MW, even at the current cost of about $7,000/kW, would
annum between 2000 and 2009). In 2009, 37,466 MW of new wind
require an investment of US$9.8 trillion.
power capacity was added globally to the grid, compared to only 1,068
MW of nuclear. This new wind capacity will generate as much electricity hazardous: Massive expansion of nuclear energy would necessarily
A FALSE SOLUTION

as 12 nuclear reactors; the last time the nuclear industry managed to lead to a large increase in related hazards. These include the risk of
add this amount of new capacity in a single year was in 1988. serious reactor accidents, the growing stockpiles of deadly, high-level
radioactive waste which will need to be safeguarded for hundreds of
Despite the rhetoric of a “nuclear renaissance,” the industry is
thousands of years, and potential proliferation of both nuclear
struggling with a massive increase in costs and construction delays as
technologies and materials through diversion to military or terrorist
well as safety and security problems linked to reactor operation,
use. The 1,400 large operating reactors in 2050 would generate an
radioactive waste and nuclear proliferation.
annual 35,000 tons of spent fuel (assuming they are light-water
reactors, the most common design for most new projects). This also
3.1 a false solution to climate protection means the production of 350,000 kilograms of plutonium each year,
The promise of nuclear energy to contribute to both climate protection enough to build 35,000 crude nuclear weapons.
and energy supply must be checked against reality. The International Most of the expected electricity demand growth by 2050 will occur in
Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) report Energy Technology Perspectives non–OECD countries. This means that a large proportion of the new
2008,66 for example, has a “Blue Map” scenario that outlines a future reactors would need to be built in those countries in order to have a
energy mix which would halve global carbon emissions by the middle of global impact on emissions. At the moment, the list of countries with
this century. To reach this goal, the IEA assumes a massive expansion of announced nuclear ambitions is long and worrying in terms of their
nuclear power between now and 2050, with installed capacity increasing political situation and stability, especially with the need to guarantee
four-fold and electricity generation reaching 9,857 terawatt-hours against the hazards of accidents and proliferation for many decades.
(TWh) /year, compared to 2,608 TWh in 2007. In order to achieve this, The World Nuclear Association compiled a list of the emerging
32 large reactors (1,000 MW each) would have to be built every year nuclear energy countries in February 2010. In Europe, this included
from now until 2050. This is unrealistic, expensive, hazardous and too Italy, Albania, Serbia, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia,
late to make a difference. According to the IEA scenario, even such a Latvia, Ireland, and Turkey. In the Middle East and North Africa:
massive global expansion of nuclear power would only cut carbon Iran and Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
emissions by less than 5%. Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria and
unrealistic: Such a rapid growth is practically impossible, given the Morocco. In central and southern Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda and
technical limitations. This scale of development was achieved in the Namibia. In South America: Chile, Ecuador and Venezuela. In central
history of nuclear power for only two years, at the peak of the state- and southern Asia: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and
driven boom of the mid-1980s. It is unlikely to be achieved again, not Bangladesh. In South East Asia: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam,
to mention maintained for 40 consecutive years. While 1984 and Thailand, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand.
1985 saw 31 GW of newly added nuclear capacity, the decade
average was 17 GW each year. In the past ten years, less than three
references
large reactors have been brought on line annually, and the current 64 BRITISH PETROLEUM (BP), STATISTICAL REVIEW, 2009.
production capacity of the global nuclear industry cannot deliver 65 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, POWER REACTOR INFORMATION SYSTEM DATABASE.
66 IEA, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2008—SCENARIOS & STRATEGIES TO 2050, 2008.
more than an annual six units. 67 ATOMIC ENERGY OF CANADA LIMITED, CORPORATE PLAN SUMMARY: 2002–2003 TO
2006–2007, P. 19.
expensive: The IEA scenario assumes very optimistic investment 68 MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE, “NEW NUCLEAR GENERATING CAPACITY: POTENTIAL CREDIT
IMPLICATIONS FOR US INVESTOR OWNED UTILITIES,” MAY 2008.
costs of $2,100/ kilowatt (kW). This estimate reflects the nuclear
69 THE ONTARIO GOVERNMENT DECIDED TO BUY NEW REACTORS BASED ON THE ADVICE OF THE
industry’s cost targets for its Generation III reactors. In 2002, for ONTARIO POWER AUTHORITY, WHICH SAID THAT AN ASSUMED COST FOR NEW NUCLEAR PLANTS
OF $2,972/KW WAS A CONSERVATIVE COST EFFECTIVE. SEE: CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH
example, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) claimed that its
INSTITUTE, ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES: PERFORMANCE AND COST
Generation III reactor design, the Advanced CANDU, would cost CHARACTERISTICS, PREPARED FOR THE ONTARIO POWER AUTHORITY, AUGUST 2005, P. 7.
70 TYLER HAMILTON, “$26B COST KILLED NUCLEAR BID,” TORONTO STAR, 14 JULY 2009.

36
image MEASURING RADIATION LEVELS
OF A HOUSE IN THE TOWN OF PRIPYAT
THAT WAS LEFT ABANDONED AFTER THE

© GP/STEVE MORGAN
NUCLEAR DISASTER.

too late: Climate science says that we need to reach a peak of global 3.3 the dangers of nuclear power 3
greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 and reduce them by 20% by 2020.

nuclear power and climate protection |


For the reasons explained above, the Energy [R]evolution scenario
Even in developed countries with an established nuclear
envisages a nuclear phase-out. Existing reactors would be closed at the
infrastructure, it takes at least a decade from the decision to build a
end of their average operational lifetime of 35 years. We assume that no
reactor to the delivery of its first electricity, and often much longer. In
new construction is started and only two thirds of the reactors currently
Canada, it is highly unlikely that any new reactors could be approved
under construction will be finally put into operation.
and built by 2020. This means that even if the world’s governments
decided to implement strong nuclear expansion now, only a few Here is the background as to why nuclear power has been discounted
reactors would start generating electricity before 2020. The as a useful future technology in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.
contribution from nuclear power towards reducing emissions would Although the generation of electricity through nuclear power produces
come too late to help. much less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels, there are multiple threats
to people and the environment from its operations. The main ones are:
3.2 nuclear power blocks solutions • nuclear proliferation,
Even if the ambitious nuclear scenario is implemented, regardless of

NUCLEAR POWER BLOCKS SOLUTIONS


• nuclear waste, and
costs and hazards, the IEA concludes that the contribution of nuclear
power to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from the energy • safety risks
sector would be only 4.6%—less than 3% of the global overall
reduction required.71 3.3.1 nuclear proliferation
There are other technologies that can deliver much larger emission Manufacturing a nuclear bomb requires fissile material—either
reductions, and much faster. Their investment costs are lower and they uranium-235 or plutonium-239. Most nuclear reactors use uranium
do not create global security risks. Even the IEA finds that the combined as a fuel and produce plutonium during their operation. It is
potential of efficiency savings and renewable energy to cut emissions by impossible to adequately protect a large reprocessing plant in order
2050 is more than ten times larger than that of nuclear. to prevent the diversion of plutonium to nuclear weapons. A small-
The world has limited time, finance and industrial capacity to change scale plutonium separation plant can be built in four-to-six months, so
our energy sector and achieve a large reduction in greenhouse any country with an ordinary reactor can produce nuclear weapons
emissions. Choosing the pathway of spending $10 trillion on nuclear relatively quickly.
development would be a fatally wrong decision. It would not save the The result is that nuclear power and nuclear weapons have grown up
climate but it would necessarily take resources away from solutions like Siamese twins. Since international controls on nuclear
described in this report and at the same time create serious global proliferation began, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea have all
security hazards. Therefore new nuclear reactors are a clearly obtained nuclear weapons, demonstrating the link between civil and
dangerous obstacle to the protection of the climate. military nuclear power. Both the International Atomic Energy Agency
figure 3.1: new reactor construction starts in (IAEA) and the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) embody an
past six years. OUT OF 35 NEW REACTORS WHOSE CONSTRUCTION HAS inherent contradiction: seeking to promote the development of
STARTED SINCE 2004, ONLY TWO ARE LOCATED IN EUROPE (FINLAND AND FRANCE).
“peaceful” nuclear power while at the same time trying to stop the
spread of nuclear weapons.
Israel, India and Pakistan all used their civil nuclear operations to
40 develop weapons capability, operating outside international
35 safeguards. North Korea developed a nuclear weapon even as a
30 signatory of the NPT. A major challenge to nuclear proliferation
25
controls has been the spread of uranium enrichment technology to
Iran, Libya and North Korea. The Director General of the
20
International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, has said
15
that “should a state with a fully developed fuel-cycle capability
10 decide, for whatever reason, to break away from its non-proliferation
5 commitments, most experts believe it could produce a nuclear weapon
0 within a matter of months.”72
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 total

•• FINLAND
FRANCE
•• JAPAN
KOREA
references
71 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010:
SCENARIOS AND STRATEGIES TO 2050.

••INDIA
PAKISTAN
••RUSSIA
CHINA
72 MOHAMED ELBARADEI, ‘TOWARDS A SAFER WORLD’, THE ECONOMIST,
18 OCTOBER 2003.

37
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

3 The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3.3.3 safety risks
(IPCC) has also warned that the security threat of trying to tackle
nuclear power and climate protection |

The nuclear industry believes severe nuclear accidents to be a


climate change with a global fast reactor programme (using
realistic possibility, to the point where it requires special legislation to
plutonium fuel) “would be colossal.”73 Even without fast reactors, all
shield it from liability in the event of an accident. International
of the reactor designs currently being promoted around the world
reactor vendors, for example, have informed Ontario that they require
could be fuelled by mixed oxide fuel (MOX), from which plutonium
the passage of new, more protective nuclear liability legislation if they
can be easily separated.
are to build new reactors in Ontario.76
Restricting the production of fissile material to a few “trusted”
Windscale (1957), Three Mile Island (1979), Chernobyl (1986) and
countries will not work. It will engender resentment and create a
Tokaimura (1999) are only a few of the hundreds of nuclear
colossal security threat. A new UN agency is needed to tackle the
accidents which have occurred to date. Notably, the world’s first
twin threats of climate change and nuclear proliferation by phasing
significant nuclear accident occurred in Canada, when Atomic Energy
out nuclear power and promoting sustainable energy, in the process
of Canada’s Limited’s NRX reactor exploded in 1952.
promoting world peace rather than threatening it.
A simple power failure at a Swedish nuclear plant in 2006 highlighted
NUCLEAR POWER BLOCKS SOLUTIONS

our vulnerability to nuclear catastrophe. Emergency power systems at


3.3.2 nuclear waste
the Forsmark plant failed for 20 minutes during a power cut and four
The nuclear industry claims it can “dispose” of its nuclear waste by of Sweden’s ten nuclear power stations had to be shut down. If power
burying it deep underground, but this will not isolate the radioactive had not been restored, there could have been a major incident within
material from the environment forever. A deep dump only slows down hours. A former director of the Forsmark plant later said that “it was
the release of radioactivity into the environment. The industry tries to pure luck there wasn’t a meltdown.” The closure of the plants removed
predict how fast a dump will leak so that it can claim that radiation at a stroke roughly 20% of Sweden’s electricity supply.
doses to the public living nearby in the future will be “acceptably
A nuclear chain reaction must be kept under control, and harmful
low.” But scientific understanding is not sufficiently advanced to
radiation must, as far as possible, be contained within the reactor,
make such predictions with any certainty.
with radioactive products isolated from humans and carefully
As part of its campaign to build new nuclear stations around the managed. Nuclear reactions generate high temperatures, and fluids
world, the industry claims that problems associated with burying used for cooling are often kept under pressure. Together with the
nuclear waste are to do with public acceptability rather than technical intense radioactivity, these high temperatures and pressures make
issues. It points to nuclear dumping proposals in Finland, Sweden or operating a reactor a difficult and complex task.
the United States to underline its argument.
The risks from operating reactors are increasing and the likelihood of an
The most hazardous waste is the highly radioactive waste (or spent) accident is now higher than ever. Most of the world’s reactors are more
fuel removed from nuclear reactors, which stays radioactive for than 25 years old and therefore more prone to age related failures.
hundreds of thousands of years. In some countries the situation is Many utilities are attempting to extend their life from the 30 years or so
exacerbated by “reprocessing” this spent fuel, which involves dissolving they were originally designed for up to 60 years, posing new risks.
it in nitric acid to separate out weapons-usable plutonium. This process
leaves behind a highly radioactive liquid waste. There are about
270,000 tonnes of spent nuclear waste fuel in storage, much of it at
reactor sites. Spent fuel is accumulating at around 12,000 tonnes per “despite the rhetoric of a
year, with around a quarter of that going for reprocessing.74 No
country in the world has a solution for high level waste. ‘nuclear-renaissance’,
The IAEA recognises that, despite its international safety the industry is struggling
requirements, “… radiation doses to individuals in the future can only
be estimated and that the uncertainties associated with these with a massive increase
estimates will increase for times farther into the future.”75 in costs and construction
The least damaging option for waste already created at the current
time is to store it above ground, in dry storage at the site of origin,
delays as well as safety
although this option also presents major challenges and threats. The and security problems.”
only real solution is to stop producing the waste.

references
73 IPCC WORKING GROUP II, IMPACTS, ADAPTATIONS AND MITIGATION OF CLIMATE 75 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, SAFETY REQUIREMENTS FOR GEOLOGICAL
CHANGE: SCIENTIFIC-TECHNICAL ANALYSES, 1995. DISPOSAL OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE, WS-R-4, 2006.
74 WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION, WASTE MANAGEMENT IN THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE, 76 SEE THE TESTIMONY OF ALBERT SWEETMAN, EXECUTIVE VICE-PRESIDENT, NUCLEAR
INFORMATION AND ISSUE BRIEF, FEBRUARY 2006, AVAILABLE AT <WWW.WORLD- NEW BUILD, ONTARIO POWER GENERATION, STANDING COMMITTEE ON NATURAL
NUCLEAR.ORG/INFO/INF04.HTM>. RESOURCES, EVIDENCE, WEDNESDAY, 18 NOVEMBER 2009.

38
image NUCLEAR REACTOR
IN LIANYUNGANG, CHINA.

© HANSEN/DREAMSTIME
figure 3.2: the nuclear fuel chain 3

nuclear power and climate protection |


U#92
5. reprocessing
Reprocessing involves the chemical
extraction of contaminated uranium and

SAFETY RISKS
1. uranium mining 4. power plant operation
plutonium from used reactor fuel rods.
Uranium, used in nuclear power Uranium nuclei are split in a nuclear There are now over 230,000 kilograms of
plants, is extracted from mines in reactor, releasing energy which heats plutonium stockpiled around the world
a handful of countries. Over 90% up water. The compressed steam is from reprocessing—five kilograms is
of supply comes from just seven converted in a turbine generator into sufficient for one nuclear bomb.
countries: Canada, Kazakhstan, electricity. This process creates a Reprocessing is not the same as recycling:
Australia, Namibia, Russia, Niger radioactive “cocktail” which involves the volume of waste increases many tens
and Uzbekistan. Mine workers more than 100 products. One of these of times, and millions of litres of
breathe in radioactive gas, from is the highly toxic and long-lasting radioactive waste are discharged into the
which they are in danger of plutonium. Radioactive material can sea and air each day. The process also
contracting lung cancer. Uranium enter the environment through demands the transport of radioactive
mining produces huge quantities accidents at nuclear power plants. The material and nuclear waste by ship, rail,
of mining debris, including worst accident to date happened at air and road around the world. An
radioactive particles that can Chernobyl, Ukraine, in the then–Soviet accident or terrorist attack could release
contaminate surface water and Union, in 1986. A typical nuclear vast quantities of nuclear material into
food. reactor generates enough plutonium the environment. There is no way to
every year for the production of 40 guarantee the safety of nuclear transport.
nuclear weapons.

2. uranium
enrichment 6. waste storage

Natural uranium and There is not a single final


concentrated ‘yellow cake’ storage facility for highly
3. fuel rod – radioactive nuclear waste
contain just 0.7% of the production
fissionable uranium isotope 235. available anywhere in the world.
To be suitable for use in most Enriched material is converted Safe secure storage of high-level
nuclear reactors, its share must into uranium dioxide and waste over thousands of years
go up to 3 or 5% via compressed into pellets in fuel remains unproven, leaving a
enrichment. This process can be rod production facilities. These deadly legacy for future
carried out in 16 facilities pellets fill four-metre-long tubes generations. Despite this, the
around the world. 80% of the called fuel rods. There are 29 nuclear industry continues to
total volume is rejected as fuel rod production facilities generate more and more waste
‘tails’, a waste product. globally. The worst accident in each day.
Enrichment generates massive this type of facility happened in
amounts of ‘depleted uranium’ September 1999, in Tokaimura,
that ends up as long-lived Japan, when two workers died.
radioactive waste or is used in Several hundred workers and
weapons or as tank shielding. villagers were also exposed
to radiation.

39
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

the energy [r]evolution


GLOBAL KEY PRINCIPLES THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID SMART GRIDS
FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE HYBRID SYSTEMS THE SUPER GRID
NEW BUSINESS MODEL

4 “half the solution to


climate change is the
DE
CO
UP
LE
GR
OW
TH F
R OM FO S S I L
FUE
LU
SE

G.

RO
PO
PA
STIME
REAM
T /D

smart use of power.”


GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN

40
image GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY
NEAR HOLSSELSNALAR CLOSE
TO REYKJAVIK, ICELAND.

© GP/NICK COBBING
The climate change imperative demands nothing short of an Energy The Energy [R]evolution scenario has a target to achieve energy
[R]evolution. The expert consensus is that this fundamental shift must equity as soon as technically possible. By 2050, the average per
begin immediately and be well underway within the next ten years in capita emissions should be between 1 and 2 tonnes of CO2.
order to avert the worst impacts. What is needed is a complete
4
3.implement clean, renewable solutions and decentralize energy
transformation of the way we produce, consume and distribute energy,

the energy [r]evolution |


systems There is no energy shortage. All we need to do is use
and at the same time maintain economic growth. Nothing short of
existing technologies to harness energy effectively and efficiently.
such a revolution will enable us to limit global warming to less than a
Renewable energy and energy efficiency measures are ready, viable
rise in temperature of 2° Celsius, above which the impacts become
and increasingly competitive. Wind, solar and other renewable
devastating.
energy technologies have experienced double-digit market growth
Current electricity generation relies mainly on burning fossil fuels, for the past decade.
with their associated CO2 emissions, in very large power stations
Just as climate change is real, so is the renewable energy sector.
which waste much of their primary input energy. More energy is lost
Sustainable decentralized energy systems produce fewer carbon

KEY PRINCIPLES
as the power is moved around the electricity grid network and
emissions, are cheaper, and involve less dependence on imported
converted from high transmission voltage down to a supply suitable
fuel. They create more jobs and empower local communities.
for domestic or commercial consumers. The system is innately
Decentralized systems are more secure and more efficient. This is
vulnerable to disruption: localized technical, weather-related, or even
what the Energy [R]evolution must aim to create.
deliberately caused faults can quickly cascade, resulting in widespread
blackouts. Whichever technology is used to generate electricity within “THE STONE AGE DID NOT END FOR LACK OF STONE, AND THE OIL
this old-fashioned configuration, it will inevitably be subject to some, AGE WILL END LONG BEFORE THE WORLD RUNS OUT OF OIL.”
or all, of these problems. At the core of the Energy [R]evolution,
Sheikh Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Arabian oil minister
there therefore needs to be a change in the way that energy is both
produced and distributed.
To stop the earth’s climate from spinning out of control, most of
4.1 key principles the world’s fossil fuel reserves—coal, oil and gas—must remain in
the ground. Our goal is for humans to live within the natural limits
the energy [r]evolution can be achieved of our small planet.
by adhering to five key principles:
4.decouple growth from fossil fuel use Starting in the developed
1.respect natural limits – phase out fossil fuels by the end of countries, economic growth must be fully decoupled from fossil fuel
this century We must learn to respect natural limits. There is only so usage. It is a fallacy to suggest that economic growth must be
much carbon that the atmosphere can absorb. Each year we emit predicated on the increased combustion of these fuels.
over 25 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent from the consumption and
flaring of fossil fuels.77 We are literally filling up the sky. Geological We need to use the energy we produce much more efficiently, and we
resources of coal could provide several hundred years of fuel, but we need to make the transition to renewable energy and away from fossil
cannot burn them and keep within safe limits. Oil and coal fuels quickly in order to enable clean and sustainable growth.
development must be ended. 5.phase out dirty, unsustainable energy We need to phase out coal
While the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario has a reduction target and nuclear power. We cannot continue to build coal plants at a
for energy-related CO2 emissions of 50% from 1990 levels, by 2050, time when emissions pose a real and present danger to both
the Advanced scenario goes one step further and aims for a reduction ecosystems and people. And we cannot continue to fuel the myriad
target of over 80%. nuclear threats by pretending nuclear power can in any way help to
combat climate change. There is no role for nuclear power in the
2.equity and fairness As long as there are natural limits there needs Energy [R]evolution.
to be a fair distribution of benefits and costs within societies,
between nations and between present and future generations. At
one extreme, a third of the world’s population has no access to
electricity, while the most industrialized countries consume much
more than their fair share.
The effects of climate change on the poorest communities are
exacerbated by massive global energy inequality. If we are to
address climate change, one of the principles must be equity and
fairness, so that the benefits of energy services—such as light, heat,
power and transport—are available for all: north and south, rich
and poor. Only in this way can we create true energy security, as
references
well as the conditions for genuine human wellbeing. 77 US ENERGY INFORMATION AGENCY, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ANNUAL 2006.

41
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

4.2 from principles to practice incorporates heat-fired absorption chillers to deliver cooling capacity
in addition to heat and power, will become a particularly valuable
In 2007, renewable energy sources accounted for 13% of the world’s
means of achieving emissions reductions.
4 primary energy demand. Biomass, which is mostly used for heating,
was the main renewable energy source. The share of renewable energy
the energy [r]evolution |

in electricity generation was 18%. The contribution of renewables to 4.2.1 a development pathway
primary energy demand for heat supply was around 24%. About
The Energy [R]evolution envisages a development pathway which
80% of primary energy supply today still comes from fossil fuels, and
turns the present energy supply structure into a sustainable system.
6% from nuclear power.78
There are three main stages to this.
The time is right to make substantial structural changes in the energy
step 1: energy efficiency and equity
and power sector within the next decade. Many power plants in
industrialized countries, such as the US, Japan and the European The Energy [R]evolution is aimed at the ambitious exploitation of the
Union, are nearing retirement; more than half of all operating power potential for energy efficiency. It focuses on current best practice and
FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE

plants are over 20 years old. At the same time, developing countries, technologies that will become available in the future, assuming
such as China, India and Brazil, are looking to satisfy the growing continuous innovation. The energy savings are fairly equally
energy demand created by their expanding economies. distributed over the three sectors: industry, transport and
domestic/business. Intelligent use, not abstinence, is the basic
Within the next ten years, the power sector will decide how this new
philosophy for future energy conservation.
demand will be met, either by fossil and nuclear fuels or by the
efficient use of renewable energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario is The most important energy-saving options are: improved heat insulation
based on a new political framework in favour of renewable energy and building design; super-efficient electrical machines and drives;
and cogeneration, combined with energy efficiency. replacement of old-style electrical heating systems by renewable heat
production (such as solar collectors); and a reduction in energy
To make this happen both renewable energy and cogeneration—on a
consumption by vehicles used for goods and passenger traffic.
large scale and through decentralized, smaller units—have to grow
Industrialized countries, which currently use energy in the most
faster than overall global energy demand. Both approaches must
inefficient way, can reduce their consumption drastically without the loss
replace old generating technologies and deliver the additional energy
of either housing comfort or information and entertainment electronics.
required in the developing world.
The Energy [R]evolution scenario uses energy saved in OECD countries
As it is not possible to switch directly from the current large-scale as a compensation for the increasing power requirements in developing
fossil- and nuclear fuel–based energy system to a full renewable countries. The ultimate goal is stabilization of global energy consumption
energy supply, a transition phase is required to build up the necessary within the next two decades. At the same time, the aim is to create
infrastructure. While remaining firmly committed to the promotion of “energy equity”—shifting the current one-sided waste of energy in the
renewable sources of energy, we appreciate that gas, used in industrialized countries towards a fairer worldwide distribution of
appropriately scaled cogeneration plants, is valuable as a transition efficiently used supply.
fuel and able to drive cost-effective decentralization of the energy
infrastructure. With warmer summers, tri-generation, which references
78 IEA, ENERGY BALANCE OF NON–OECD COUNTRIES, AND ENERGY BALANCE OF OECD
COUNTRIES, 2009.

figure 4.1: energy loss, by centralized generation systems

61.5 units 3.5 units 13 units


LOST THROUGH INEFFICIENT LOST THROUGH TRANSMISSION WASTED THROUGH
GENERATION AND HEAT WASTAGE AND DISTRIBUTION INEFFICIENT END USE
© DREAMSTIME

© DREAMSTIME

100 units >> 38.5 units >> 35 units >> 22 units


ENERGY WITHIN FOSSIL FUEL OF ENERGY FED TO NATIONAL GRID OF ENERGY SUPPLIED OF ENERGY
ACTUALLY UTILISED
42
image GREENPEACE OPENS A SOLAR
ENERGY WORKSHOP IN BOMA. A MOBILE

© GP/PHILIP REYNAERS
PHONE GETS CHARGED BY A SOLAR
ENERGY POWERED CHARGER.

A dramatic reduction in primary energy demand compared to the to provide sustainable low-emission heating. Although DE
IEA’s reference scenario—but with the same GDP and population technologies can be considered “disruptive” because they do not fit
development—is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant the existing electricity market and system, with appropriate changes
share of renewable energy sources in the overall energy supply they have the potential for exponential growth, promising “creative
4
system, compensating for the phasing-out of nuclear energy and destruction” of the existing energy sector.

the energy [r]evolution |


reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
A huge proportion of global energy in 2050 will be produced by
decentralized energy sources, although large-scale renewable energy
step 2: the renewable energy [r]evolution supply will still be needed in order to achieve a fast transition to a
renewables-dominated system. Large offshore wind farms and
decentralized energy and large-scale renewables In order to
concentrating solar power (CSP) plants in the sunbelt regions of the
achieve higher fuel efficiencies and reduce distribution losses, the
world will therefore have an important role to play.
Energy [R]evolution scenario makes extensive use of decentralized
energy (DE).This is energy generated at or near the point of use. cogeneration The increased use of combined heat and power

FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE


generation (CHP) will improve the supply system’s energy conversion
Centralized generation systems waste more than two thirds of their
efficiency, whether using natural gas or sustainable biomass. In the
original energy input (see Figure 4.1).
longer term, a decreasing demand for heat and the large potential for
DE is connected to a local distribution network system, supplying producing heat directly from renewable energy sources will limit the
homes and offices, rather than the high-voltage transmission system. need for further expansion of CHP.
The proximity of an electricity-generating plant to consumers allows
renewable electricity The electricity sector will be the pioneer of
any waste heat from combustion processes to be piped to nearby
renewable energy utilization. Many renewable electricity technologies
buildings, a system known as cogeneration, or combined heat and
have been experiencing steady growth over the past 20 to 30 years of up
power. This means that nearly all the input energy is put to use, not just
to 35% annually and are expected to consolidate at a high level between
a fraction, as with traditional centralized fossil fuel plant.
2030 and 2050. By 2050, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, most
DE also includes stand-alone systems entirely separate from the electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources. The
public networks; for example, heat pumps, solar thermal panels, or anticipated growth of electricity use in transport will further promote
biomass heating. These can all be commercialized at a domestic level the effective use of renewable power generation technologies.

figure 4.2: a decentralized energy future


EXISTING TECHNOLOGIES, APPLIED IN A DECENTRALIZED WAY AND COMBINED WITH EFFICIENCY MEASURES AND ZERO EMISSION DEVELOPMENTS, CAN
DELIVER LOW-CARBON COMMUNITIES, AS ILLUSTRATED HERE. POWER IS GENERATED USING EFFICIENT COGENERATION TECHNOLOGIES PRODUCING BOTH HEAT
(AND SOMETIMES COOLING) PLUS ELECTRICITY, DISTRIBUTED VIA LOCAL NETWORKS. THIS SUPPLEMENTS THE ENERGY PRODUCED FROM BUILDING-INTEGRATED
GENERATION. ENERGY SOLUTIONS COME FROM LOCAL OPPORTUNITIES, AT BOTH A SMALL AND A COMMUNITY SCALE. THE TOWN SHOWN HERE MAKES USE OF,
AMONG OTHERS, WIND, BIOMASS AND HYDRO RESOURCES. NATURAL GAS, WHERE NEEDED, CAN BE DEPLOYED IN A HIGHLY EFFICIENT MANNER.

city

1. PHOTOVOLTAIC, SOLAR FAÇADES WILL BE A DECORATIVE 3. SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTORS PRODUCE HOT WATER FOR BOTH
ELEMENT ON OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS. THEIR OWN AND NEIGHBOURING BUILDINGS.
PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS WILL BECOME MORE COMPETITIVE
AND IMPROVED DESIGN WILL ENABLE ARCHITECTS TO USE 4. EFFICIENT THERMAL POWER (CHP) STATIONS WILL COME IN
THEM MORE WIDELY. A VARIETY OF SIZES - FITTING THE CELLAR OF A DETACHED
HOUSE OR SUPPLYING WHOLE BUILDING COMPLEXES OR
2. RENOVATION CAN CUT ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF OLD BUILDINGS APARTMENT BLOCKS WITH POWER AND WARMTH WITHOUT
BY AS MUCH AS 80% - WITH IMPROVED HEAT INSULATION, LOSSES IN TRANSMISSION.
INSULATED WINDOWS AND MODERN VENTILATION SYSTEMS.
5. CLEAN ELECTRICITY FOR THE CITIES WILL ALSO COME FROM
FARTHER AFIELD. OFFSHORE WIND PARKS AND SOLAR POWER
STATIONS IN DESERTS HAVE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL.
43
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

renewable heating In the heat supply sector, the contribution of 4.3 new business model
renewables will increase significantly. Growth rates are expected to be
The Energy [R]evolution scenario will also result in a dramatic
similar to those of the renewable electricity sector. Fossil fuels will be
4 increasingly replaced by more-efficient modern technologies, in
change in the business model of energy companies, utilities, fuel
suppliers and the manufacturers of energy technologies. Decentralized
the energy [r]evolution |

particular solar collectors, sustainably-produced biomass, and


energy generation and large solar or offshore wind arrays which
geothermal. By 2050, renewable energy technologies will satisfy the
operate in remote areas, without the need for any fuel, will have a
major part of heating and cooling demand.
profound impact on the way utilities operate in 2020 and beyond.
transport Before new technologies, including hybrid or electric cars
While today the entire power supply value chain is broken down into
and new fuels such as biofuels, can play a substantial role in the
clearly defined players, a global renewable power supply will
transport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to be
inevitably change this division of roles and responsibilities. Table 4.1
exploited. In this study, biomass is primarily committed to stationary
provides an overview of today’s value chain and how it would change
applications; the use of biofuels for transport is limited by the
in a revolutionised energy mix.
FROM PRINCIPLES TO PRACTICE

availability of sustainably grown biomass.79 Electric vehicles will


therefore play an even more important role in improving energy While today a relatively small number of power plants, owned and
efficiency in transport and substituting for fossil fuels. operated by utilities or their subsidiaries, are needed to generate the
required electricity, the Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a
Overall, to achieve an economically attractive growth of renewable
future share of around 60 to 70% of small but numerous
energy sources, a balanced and timely mobilization of all technologies
decentralized power plants performing the same task. Ownership will
is essential. Such a mobilization depends on the resource availability,
therefore shift towards more private investors and away from
cost reduction potential, and technological maturity. And alongside
centralized utilities. In turn, the value chain for power companies will
technology-driven solutions, lifestyle changes—like simply driving less
shift towards project development, equipment manufacturing and
and using more public transport—have a huge potential to reduce
operation and maintenance.
greenhouse gas emissions.

table 4.1: power plant value chain

TASK & MARKET PLAYER (LARGE SCALE) PROJECT INSTALLATION PLANT OPERATION & FUEL DISTRIBUTION SALES
GENERATION DEVELOPMENT OWNER MAINTENANCE SUPPLY

STATUS QUO Very few new power plants + large scale generation global mining grid operation
central planning in the hand of few IPP´s operations still in the
& utilities hands of
utilities
MARKET PLAYER
Utility
Mining company
Component manufacturer
Engineering companies
& project developers

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION many smaller power plants + large number of players e.g. no fuel grid operation
decentralized planning IPP´s, utilities, private needed under state
POWER MARKET consumer, building operators (except control
biomass)
MARKET PLAYER
Utility
Mining company
Component manufacturer
Engineering companies
& project developers

references
79 SEE SECTIONS 5.5.4 AND 7.5.1.

44
image THE TRUCK DROPS ANOTHER
LOAD OF WOOD CHIPS AT THE BIOMASS
POWER PLANT IN LELYSTAD,

© GP/BAS BEENTJES
THE NETHERLANDS.

Simply selling electricity to customers will play a smaller role, as the


table 4.2: utilities today
power companies of the future will deliver a total power plant to the
customer, not just electricity. They will therefore move towards becoming FUEL (LARGE SCALE) TRADING TRANS- DISTRIBUTION SALES
service suppliers for the customer. The majority of power plants will also SUPPLY GENERATION MISSION 4
not require any fuel supply, with the result that mining and other fuel

the energy [r]evolution |


production companies will lose their strategic importance. utilities
The future pattern under the Energy [R]evolution will see more and trader (e.g.
local DSO
more renewable energy companies, such as wind turbine banks)
manufacturers, also becoming involved in project development, IPP TSO retailer
installation and operation and maintenance, whilst utilities will lose mining
their status. Those traditional energy supply companies which do not companies
move towards renewable project development will either lose market

NEW BUSINESS MODEL


share or drop out of the market completely. FUEL (LARGE & TRADING TRANS- DISTRIBUTION SALES
SUPPLY SMALL SCALE) MISSION
rural electrification Energy is central to reducing poverty, providing GENERATION
STORAGE RENEWABLE RENEWABLE
major benefits in the areas of health, literacy and equity.80 More than GENERATION GENERATION
a quarter of the world’s population has no access to modern energy
services. In sub-Saharan Africa, 80% of people have no electricity
utilities investors
supply. For cooking and heating, they depend almost exclusively on
burning biomass: wood, charcoal and dung. trader (e.g.
local DSO
banks)
Poor people spend up to a third of their income on energy, mostly to cook IPP TSO retailer
food. Women in particular devote a considerable amount of time to
mining
collecting, processing and using traditional fuel for cooking. In India, two to companies IT companies
seven hours each day can be devoted to the collection of cooking fuel. This
is time that could be spent on child care, education, or income generation. IPP = INDEPENDEND POWER PRODUCER
The World Health Organization estimates that 1.6 million people, mostly TSO = TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATOR
women and young children in developing countries, die prematurely each LOCAL DSO = LOCAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATOR
year from breathing the fumes from indoor biomass stoves.81
The Millennium Development Goal of halving global poverty by 2015 will
not be reached without adequate energy to increase production, income
and education, create jobs, and reduce the daily grind involved in just
having to survive. Halving hunger will not come about without energy for
more productive growing, harvesting, processing and marketing of food.
Improving health and reducing death rates will not happen without energy
for the refrigeration needed for clinics, hospitals and vaccination
campaigns. The world’s greatest child killer, acute respiratory infection,
will not be tackled without dealing with smoke from cooking fires in the
home. Children will not study at night without light in their homes. Clean
water will not be pumped or treated without energy.
The UN Commission on Sustainable Development argues that “to
implement the goal accepted by the international community of
halving the proportion of people living on less than US$1 per day by
2015, access to affordable energy services is a prerequisite.”82
the role of sustainable, clean renewable energy To achieve the
dramatic emissions cuts needed to avoid climate change—in the order of
80% in OECD countries by 2050—will require a massive uptake of
renewable energy. The targets for renewable energy must be greatly
expanded in industrialized countries both to substitute for fossil fuel and
nuclear generation and to create the economies of scale necessary for references
80 IT POWER, AND GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR POVERTY
global expansion. Within the Energy [R]evolution scenario we assume REDUCTION: AN ACTION PLAN, 2002.
that the efficient use of modern renewable energy sources, such as solar 81 WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, INDOOR AIR POLLUTION AND HEALTH, WHO FACT
SHEET NO. 292, JUNE 2005.
collectors, solar cookers and modern, sustainable forms of bioenergy, will 82 UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, 9TH SESSION OF THE
replace inefficient, traditional biomass use. COMMISSION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, CONCLUSION, APRIL 2001.

45
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

step 3: optimized integration – renewables 24/7 4.4 the new electricity grid
To accommodate the significantly higher shares of renewable energy The “grid” is the collective name for all the cables, transformers and
4 expected under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, a complete infrastructure that transport electricity from power plants to the end
transformation of the energy system will be necessary. The grid users. In all networks, some energy is lost as it is travels, but moving
the energy [r]evolution |

network of cables and sub-stations that brings electricity to our electricity around within a localized distribution network is more
homes and factories was designed for large, centralized generators efficient and results in less energy loss.
running at huge loads, usually providing what is known as “baseload”
The existing electricity transmission (main grid lines) and distribution
power. Renewable energy has had to fit in to this system as an
system (local network) was mainly designed and planned 40 to 60
additional slice of the energy mix and adapt to the conditions under
years ago. All over the developed world, the grids were built with
which the grid currently operates. If the Energy [R]evolution scenario
large power plants in the middle and high-voltage alternating current
is to be realized, this will have to change.
(AC) transmission power lines connecting up to the areas where the
Some critics of renewable energy say it is never going to be able to power is used. A lower-voltage distribution network then carries the
THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID

provide enough power for our current energy use, let alone for the current to the final consumers. This is known as a centralized grid
projected growth in demand. This is because it relies mostly on system, and has a relatively small number of large power stations
natural resources, such as the wind and sun, which are not available mostly fuelled by coal or gas.
24/7. Existing practice in a number of countries has already shown
In the future we need to change the grid network so that it does not
that this is wrong, and further adaptations to how the grid network
rely on large, conventional power plants but instead on clean energy
operates will enable the large quantities of renewable generating
from a range of renewable sources. These will typically be smaller-
capacity envisaged in this report to be successfully integrated.
scale power generators distributed throughout the grid. A localized
We already have sun, wind, geothermal sources and running rivers distribution network is more efficient and avoids energy losses during
available right now, whilst ocean energy, sustainably-produced long-distance transmission. There will also be some concentrated
biomass and efficient gas turbines are all set to make a contribution supply from large renewable power plants. Examples of these large
in the future. Clever technologies can track and manage energy-use generators of the future are the massive wind farms already being
patterns, provide flexible power that follows demand through the day, built in Europe’s North Sea and the plan for large areas of
use better storage options, and group customers together to form concentrating solar mirrors to generate energy in Southern Europe or
“virtual batteries.” With all these solutions we can secure the Northern Africa.
renewable energy future needed to avert catastrophic climate change.
The challenge ahead is to integrate new generation sources and at the
Renewable energy 24/7 is technically and economically possible, it
same time phase out most of the large-scale conventional power
just needs the right policy and the commercial investment to get
plants, while still keeping the lights on. This will require novel types of
things moving and “keep the lights on.”83
grids and an innovative power system architecture involving both new
technologies and new ways of managing the network to ensure a
balance between fluctuations in energy demand and supply.

elements in the new power system architecture cells are combined with energy management to balance out the load of
all the users on the system. Smart grids are a way to integrate massive
A hybrid system based on more than one generating source—for
amounts of renewable energy into the system and enable the
example, solar and wind power—is a method of providing a secure
decommissioning of older centralized power stations.
supply in remote rural areas or islands, especially where there is no
grid-connected electricity. This is particularly appropriate in A super grid is a large-scale electricity grid network linking together
developing countries. In the future, several hybrid systems could be a number of countries, or connecting areas with a large supply of
connected together to form a micro-grid, in which the supply is renewable electricity to an area with a large demand—ideally based
managed using smart-grid techniques. on more-efficient high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables. An
example of the former would be the interconnection of all the large
A smart grid is an electricity grid that connects decentralized renewable
renewable-based power plants in the North Sea. An example of the
energy sources and cogeneration and distributes power highly efficiently.
latter would be a connection between Southern Europe and Africa so
Advanced communication and control technologies such as smart
that renewable energy could be exported from an area with a large
electricity meters are used to deliver electricity more cost-effectively,
renewable resource to urban centres where there is high demand.
with lower greenhouse intensity and in response to consumer needs.
Typically, small generators such as wind turbines, solar panels or fuels

references
83 THE ARGUMENTS AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS OUTLINED HERE ARE EXPLAINED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL /GREENPEACE REPORT
[R]ENEWABLES 24/7: INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED TO SAVE THE CLIMATE, NOVEMBER 2009.

46
image THE WIND TURBINES ARE GOING
TO BE USED FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF

© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
AN OFFSHORE WINDFARM AT
MIDDELGRUNDEN WHICH IS CLOSE
TO COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.

figure 4.3: overview of the future power system with high penetration of renewables

the energy [r]evolution |


North Sea wind turbines
and offshore supergrid

THE NEW ELECTRICITY GRID


North Sea wind turbines
CITY and offshore supergrid

SMART
GRID
CITY

CITY SMART CITY


GRID

SMART SMART
GRID GRID

existing AC system NEW HVDC SUPERGRID

CITY CITY

SMART SMART
GRID CITY GRID CITY

SMART SMART
CITY GRID GRID

SMART
GRID
Smart grid using micro grids and virtual power plants
DISTRIBUTED GENERATION GRID
3 x 20kW 90kW 2 x 60kW
wind turbine solar PV gas turbine power grid

APP MINIGRID
minigrid
1kW vertical 30kW gas 23kW 64kW test control room
wind turbine turbine solar PV load bank

CSP in Southern Europe and Africa

VIRTUAL POWER STATION MICROGRID


16kWh 1kW 1kW wind
battery bank solar PV turbine

+ -

site loads

source ENERGYNAUTICS 47
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

The key elements of this new power system architecture are micro- Finance can often be an issue for relatively poor rural communities
grids, smart grids, and an efficient, large-scale super grid. The three wanting to install such hybrid renewable systems. Greenpeace has
4 types of system will support and interconnect with each other therefore developed a model in which projects are bundled together in
(see Figure 4.3). order to make the financial package large enough to be eligible for
the energy [r]evolution |

international investment support. In the Pacific region, for example,


A major role in the construction and operation of this new system
power generation projects from a number of islands, an entire island
architecture will be played by the information technology (IT) sector.
state such as the Maldives or even several island states could be
Because a smart grid has power supplied from a diverse range of
bundled into one project package. This would make it large enough
sources and locations, it relies on the gathering and analysis of a
for funding as an international project by OECD countries. Funding
large quantity of data. This requires software, hardware and networks
could come from a mixture of a feed-in tariff and a fund which covers
that are capable of delivering data quickly, and responding to the
the extra costs, as proposed in the “[R]enewables 24/7” report,84 and
information that they contain. Providing energy users with real-time
known as a “feed-in tariff support mechanism.” In terms of project
data about their energy consumption patterns and the appliances in
HYBRID SYSTEMS & SMART GRIDS

planning, it is essential that the communities themselves are directly


their buildings, for example, helps them to improve their energy
involved in the process.
efficiency, and will allow appliances to be used at a time when a local
renewable supply is plentiful—for example, when the wind is blowing.
4.6 smart grids
There are numerous IT companies offering products and services to
manage and monitor energy. These include IBM, Fujitsu, Google, The task of integrating renewable energy technologies into existing
Microsoft and Cisco. These and other giants of the power systems is similar in all power systems around the world,
telecommunications and technology sector have the power to make whether they are large centralized networks or island systems. The
the grid smarter, and to move us faster towards a clean energy future. main aim of power system operation is to balance electricity
Greenpeace has initiated the “Cool IT” campaign to put pressure on consumption and generation.
the IT sector to make such technologies a reality.
Thorough forward planning is needed to ensure that the available
production can match demand at all times. In addition to balancing
4.5 hybrid systems supply and demand, the power system must also be able to:
The developed world has extensive electricity grids supplying power to • fulfill defined power quality standards (voltage/frequency), which
nearly 100% of the population. In parts of the developing world, may require additional technical equipment; and
however, many rural areas get by with unreliable grids or with
• survive extreme situations such as sudden interruptions of supply—
polluting electricity such as, for example, from stand-alone diesel
for example, from a fault at a generation unit or a breakdown in
generators. This is also very expensive for small communities.
the transmission system.
The electrification of rural areas that currently have no access to any
Integrating renewable energy by using a smart grid means moving
power system cannot go ahead as it has in the past. A standard
away from the issue of baseload power toward the question as to
approach in developed countries has been to extend the grid by
whether the supply is flexible or inflexible. In a smart grid, a portfolio
installing high- or medium-voltage lines, new substations and a low-
of flexible energy providers can follow the load during both day and
voltage distribution grid. But when there is low potential electricity
night (for example, solar plus gas, geothermal, wind, and demand
demand, and long distances between the existing grid and rural areas,
management) without blackouts.
this method is often not economically feasible.
A number of European countries have already shown that it is possible
Electrification based on renewable energy systems with a hybrid mix
to integrate large quantities of variable renewable power generation into
of sources is often the cheapest as well as the least polluting
the grid network and achieve a high percentage of the total supply. In
alternative. Hybrid systems connect renewable energy sources such as
Denmark, for example, the average supplied by wind power is about
wind and solar power to a battery via a charge controller, which
20%, with peaks of more than 100% of demand. On those occasions,
stores the generated electricity and acts as the main power supply.
surplus electricity is exported to neighbouring countries. In Spain, a
Back-up supply typically comes from a fossil fuel; for example, in a
much larger country with a higher demand, the average supplied by wind
wind-battery-diesel or PV-battery-diesel system. Such decentralized
power is 14%, with peaks of more than 50%.
hybrid systems are more reliable, consumers can be involved in their
operation through innovative technologies and they can make best use
of local resources. They are also less dependent on large-scale
infrastructure and can be constructed and connected faster, especially
in rural areas.
references

84 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL /GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL,


[R]ENEWABLES 24/7: INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED TO SAVE THE CLIMATE,
NOVEMBER 2009.

48
image THE MARANCHON WIND TURBINE

© GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA
FARM IN GUADALAJARA, SPAIN IS THE
LARGEST IN EUROPE WITH 104
GENERATORS, WHICH COLLECTIVELY
PRODUCE 208 MEGAWATTS OF
ELECTRICITY, ENOUGH POWER FOR 590,000
PEOPLE, ANUALLY.

Until now, renewable power technology development has put most This type of demand-side management has been simplified by advances
effort into adjusting its technical performance to the needs of the in communications technology. In Italy, for example, 30 million
existing network, mainly by complying with grid codes, which cover innovative electricity counters have been installed to allow remote 4
such issues as voltage frequency and reactive power. However, the meter-reading and control of consumer and service information.86

the energy [r]evolution |


time has come for the power systems themselves to better adjust to Many household electrical products or systems, such as refrigerators,
the needs of variable generation. This means that they must become dishwashers, washing machines, storage heaters, water pumps and air
flexible enough to follow the fluctuations of variable renewable power; conditioning, can be managed either by temporary shut-off or by
for example, by adjusting demand via demand-side management rescheduling their time of operation, thus freeing up electricity load for
and/or deploying storage systems. other uses and dovetailing it with variations in renewable supply.
The future power system will no longer consist of a few centralized A virtual power plant (VPP) interconnects a range of real power
power plants but instead tens of thousands of generation units such as plants (for example solar, wind and hydro) as well as storage options
solar panels, wind turbines and other renewable generation, partly distributed in the power system, using information technology. A real-

SMART GRIDS
distributed in the distribution network, partly concentrated in large life example of a VPP is the Combined Renewable Energy Power
power plants such as offshore wind parks. Plant developed by three German companies.87 This system
interconnects and controls 11 wind power plants, 20 solar power
The trade-off is that power system planning will become more
plants, 4 CHP plants based on biomass, and a pumped storage unit, all
complex, due to the larger number of generation assets and the
geographically spread around Germany. The VPP combines the
significant share of variable power generation causing constantly
advantages of the various renewable energy sources by carefully
changing power flows. Smart-grid technology will be needed to
monitoring (and anticipating, through weather forecasts) when the
support power system planning. This will operate by actively
wind turbines and solar modules will be generating electricity. Biogas
supporting day-ahead forecasts and system balancing, providing real-
and pumped storage units are then used to make up the difference,
time information about the status of the network and the generation
either delivering electricity as needed in order to balance short-term
units, in combination with weather forecasts. It will also play a
fluctuations or temporarily storing it.88 Together the combination
significant role in making sure systems can meet the peak demand at
ensures sufficient electricity supply to cover demand.
all times and will make better use of distribution and transmission
assets, thereby keeping the need for network extensions to the A number of mature and emerging technologies are viable options for
absolute minimum. storing electricity. Of these, pumped storage can be considered the
most established technology. Pumped storage involves a type of
To develop a power system based almost entirely on renewable energy
hydroelectric power station that can store energy. Water is pumped
sources will require a new overall power system architecture, including
from a lower-elevation reservoir to a higher elevation during times of
smart-grid technology. This concept will need substantial amounts of
low-cost, off-peak electricity. During periods of high electrical demand,
further work to fully emerge.85 Figure 4.4 shows a simplified graphic
the stored water is released through turbines. Taking into account
representation of the key elements in future renewables-based power
evaporation losses from the exposed water surface, and conversion
systems using smart grid technology.
losses, roughly 70 to 85% of the electrical energy used to pump the
A range of options is available to enable the large-scale integration of water into the elevated reservoir can be regained when it is released.
variable renewable energy resources into the power supply system. Pumped-storage plants can also respond to changes in the power
These include demand-side management, the concept of a “virtual system load demand within seconds.
power plant” and a number of choices for the storage of power.
Pumped storage has been successfully used for many decades
The level and timing of demand for electricity can be managed by all over the world. In 2007, the European Union had 38 GW
providing consumers with financial incentives to reduce or shut off of pumped storage capacity, representing 5% of total
their supply at periods of peak consumption. Such a system is already electrical capacity.
used for some large industrial customers. A Norwegian power supplier
even involves private household customers by sending them a text
message with a signal to shut down. Each household can decide in
advance whether or not it wants to participate. In Germany,
experiments are being conducted with time flexible tariffs so that
washing machines operate at night and refrigerators turn off
references
temporarily during periods of high demand.
85 SEE ALSO ECOGRID PHASE 1 SUMMARY REPORT, AVAILABLE AT:
<HTTP://WWW.ENERGINET.DK/NR/RDONLYRES/8B1A4A06-CBA3-41DA-9402-
B56C2C288FB0/0/ECOGRIDDK_PHASE1_SUMMARYREPORT.PDF>.
86 MARK SCOTT, “HOW ITALY BEAT THE WORLD TO A SMARTER GRID,” DER SPIEGEL
ONLINE, 17 NOVEMBER 2009.
87 SEE ALSO <HTTP://WWW.KOMBIKRAFTWERK.DE/INDEX.PHP?ID=27>.
88 SEE ALSO
<HTTP://WWW.SOLARSERVER.DE/SOLARMAGAZIN/ANLAGEJANUAR2008_E.HTML>.

49
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

figure 4.4: the smart-grid vision for the energy [r]evolution


A VISION FOR THE FUTURE – A NETWORK OF INTEGRATED MICROGRIDS THAT CAN MONITOR AND HEAL ITSELF.

4
the energy [r]evolution |

HOUSES WITH
SOLAR PANELS

ISOLATED MICROGRID
SMART GRIDS

OFFICES WITH
SOLAR PANELS

WIND FARM CENTRAL POWER PLANT

INDUSTRIAL PLANT

•• PROCESSORS EXECUTE SPECIAL PROTECTION SCHEMES IN MICROSECONDS


SENSORS ON ‘STANDBY’ – DETECT FLUCTUATIONS AND DISTURBANCES, AND CAN SIGNAL FOR AREAS TO BE ISOLATED

• SENSORS ‘ACTIVATED’ – DETECT FLUCTUATIONS AND DISTURBANCES, AND CAN SIGNAL FOR AREAS TO BE ISOLATED

SMART APPLIANCES CAN SHUT OFF IN RESPONSE TO FREQUENCY FLUCTUATIONS

DEMAND MANAGEMENT USE CAN BE SHIFTED TO OFF-PEAK TIMES TO SAVE MONEY

GENERATORS ENERGY FROM SMALL GENERATORS AND SOLAR PANELS CAN REDUCE OVERALL DEMAND ON THE GRID

STORAGE ENERGY GENERATED AT OFF-PEAK TIMES COULD BE STORED IN BATTERIES FOR LATER USE

DISTURBANCE IN THE GRID

50
image A LARGE SOLAR SYSTEM OF 63M2
RISES ON THE ROOF OF A HOTEL IN

© GP/EX-PRESS/HEIKE
CELERINA, SWITZERLAND. THE
COLLECTOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HOT WATER AND HEATING SUPPORT AND
CAN SAVE ABOUT 6,000 LITERS OF OIL
PER YEAR. THUS, THE CO2 EMISSIONS
AND COMPANY COSTS CAN BE REDUCED.

Another way of “storing” electricity is to use it to directly meet


the demand from electric vehicles. The number of electric cars
and trucks is expected to increase dramatically under the Energy 4
[R]evolution scenario. The vehicle-to-grid (V2G) concept, for

the energy [r]evolution |


example, is based on electric cars equipped with batteries that can be
charged during times when there is surplus renewable generation and
then, while the cars are parked, discharged to supply peaking capacity
or ancillary services to the power system. During peak demand times,
cars are often parked close to main load centres—for instance,
outside factories—so there would be no network issues. Within the
V2G concept, a virtual power plant would be built using information
and communications technology (ICT) to aggregate the electric cars

THE SUPER GRID


participating in the relevant electricity markets and to meter the
charging/discharging activities. In 2009, the EDISON demonstration
project in Denmark89 was launched to develop and test the
infrastructure for integrating electric cars into the power system of
the Danish island of Bornholm.

4.7 the super grid


A Greenpeace simulation study has shown that extreme situations
with low solar radiation and little wind are not frequent in many
parts of Europe, but they can occur. The power system, even with
massive amounts of renewable energy, must be adequately designed to
cope with such an event. A key element in achieving this is through
the construction of new onshore and offshore super grids.
In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, it is assumed that about 70% of
all generation is distributed and located close to load centres. The
remaining 30% will be large-scale renewable generation such as
large, offshore wind farms or large arrays of concentrating solar
power (CSP) plants. A North Sea offshore super grid, for example,
would enable the efficient integration of renewable energy into the
power system across the whole North Sea region, linking the UK,
France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway. By
aggregating power generation from wind farms spread across the
whole area, periods of very low or very high power flows would be
reduced to a negligible number. A dip in wind power generation in one
area would be balanced by higher production in another area, even
hundreds of kilometres away. Over a year, an installed offshore wind
power capacity of 68.4 GW in the North Sea would be able to
generate an estimated 247 TWh of electricity.
The cost of developing the grid is expected to be between €15
and 20 billion. This investment would not only allow the broad
integration of renewable energy but also unlock unprecedented power-
trading opportunities and cost efficiency. In a recent example, a new
600 kilometre–long power line between Norway and the Netherlands
cost €600 million to build, but is already generating a daily cross-
border trade valued at €800,000.90
references

89 THE EDISON (ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN A DISTRIBUTED AND INTEGRATED MARKET


USING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY AND OPEN NETWORKS) PROJECT IS AN INTERNATIONAL
RESEARCH PROJECT. SEE: <HTTP://WWW.EDISON-NET.DK/ABOUT-EDISON.ASPX>.
90 GREENPEACE REPORT, NORTH SEA ELECTRICITY GRID [R]EVOLUTION,
SEPTEMBER 2008.

51
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

scenarios for a future energy supply


GLOBAL SCENARIO BACKGROUND COST PROJECTIONS FOR EFFICIENT COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE
OIL AND GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
COST OF CO2 EMISSIONS

5 “towards
“the technology
sustainable
a
is here, all we
global
need
im
ag
eW
I ND
TU
RB
IN
EI
N SA
MU
TS
A KH
ON
,T HA
I LA
ND

GP
/VI
NA
I DI
TH
AJ
OH
N

is
energy
political
supply
will.”
system.”
GREENPEACE
CHRIS JONES INTERNATIONAL
SUPORTER
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN
AUSTRALIA

52
image AERIAL PHOTO OF THE ANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION, EUROPE’S FIRST
COMMERCIAL PARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR POWER PLANT. ANDASOL 1 WILL SUPPLY UP TO

© GP/MARKEL REDONDO

© GP/MARKEL REDONDO
200,000 PEOPLE WITH CLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVE ABOUT 149,000
TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEAR COMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT.

image MAINTENANCE WORKERS FIX THE BLADES OF A WINDMILL AT GUAZHOU WIND


FARM NEAR YUMEN IN GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.

Moving from principles to action on energy supply and climate change Given the enormous and diverse potential for renewable power, the
mitigation requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure Advanced scenario also foresees a shift in the use of renewables from power
takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. to heat. Assumptions for the heating sector therefore include a faster
Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. Any analysis expansion of the use of district heat and hydrogen, and more electricity for
that seeks to tackle energy and environmental issues therefore needs process heat in the industry sector. More geothermal heat pumps are also
to look ahead at least half a century. used, which leads, combined with a larger share of electric drives in the 5
transport sector, to a higher overall electricity demand. In addition, a faster
Scenarios are important in describing possible development paths, to

scenarios for a future energy supply |


expansion of solar and geothermal heating systems is assumed.
give decision-makers an overview of future perspectives and to
indicate how far they can shape the future energy system. Two In all sectors, the latest market development projections of the renewables
different kinds of scenario are used here to characterize the wide industry92 have been taken into account (see Table 5.11: “Assumed annual
range of possible pathways for a future energy supply system: a average growth rates for renewable energy technologies”). In developing
Reference scenario, reflecting a continuation of current trends and countries in particular, a shorter operational lifetime for coal power plants,
policies, and the Energy [R]evolution (E[R]) scenarios, which are of 20 instead of 40 years, has been assumed in order to allow a faster
designed to achieve a set of dedicated environmental policy targets. uptake of renewables. The speedier introduction of electric vehicles,
combined with the implementation of smart grids and faster expansion of
The Reference Scenario Reference scenario is based on the reference
super grids (about ten years ahead of the basic Energy [R]evolution
scenario published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in World
scenario) allows a higher share of fluctuating renewable power generation
Energy Outlook 2009 (WEO 2009).91 The Reference scenario only takes
(photovoltaic and wind) to be employed. The 30% mark for the proportion
existing international energy and environmental policies into account. Its
of renewables in the global energy supply is therefore passed just after
assumptions include, for example, continuing progress in electricity and

SCENARIO BACKGROUND
2020—ten years ahead of the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario.
gas market reforms, the liberalization of cross-border energy trade, and
recent policies designed to combat environmental pollution. The Reference The global quantities of biomass and large hydro power remain the same
scenario does not take into consideration additional mechanisms to in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, for reasons of sustainability.
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, beyond what are already in place or
These scenarios by no means claim to predict the future; they simply
planned. As the IEA’s projection only covers a time horizon up to 2030,
describe three potential development pathways out of the broad range of
the Reference scenario has extended that horizon by extrapolating key
possible “futures.” The Energy [R]evolution scenarios are designed to
macroeconomic and energy indicators forward to 2050. This provides a
indicate the efforts and actions required to achieve their ambitious
baseline for comparison with the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
objectives and to illustrate the options we have at hand to change our
The Energy [R]evolution Scenario Energy [R]evolution scenario has energy supply system into one that is sustainable.
a key target of reducing worldwide carbon dioxide emissions down to a
level of around 10 gigatonnes per year by 2050, in order to keep the
5.1 scenarios background
increase in global temperature under +2°C. A second objective is the
global phasing-out of nuclear energy. First published in 2007, then The scenarios in this report were jointly commissioned by Greenpeace and
updated and expanded in 2008, this latest revision of the E[R] scenario the European Renewable Energy Council from the Institute of Technical
also serves as a baseline for the more ambitious Advanced Energy Thermodynamics, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR). The
[R]evolution scenario. To achieve its targets, the Advanced scenario is supply scenarios were calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation
characterized by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential model adopted in the previous Energy [R]evolution studies. Some detailed
for energy efficiency, using currently available best-practice technology. analyses carried out during preparation of the 2008 Energy [R]evolution
At the same time, all cost-effective renewable energy sources are used study were also used as input to this update. The energy demand
for heat and electricity generation as well as the production of biofuels. projections were developed for the 2008 study by Ecofys Netherlands,
The general framework parameters for population and GDP growth based on an analysis of the future potential for energy efficiency
remain unchanged from those of the Reference scenario. measures. The biomass potential, judged according to Greenpeace
sustainability criteria, has been developed especially for these scenarios by
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution Scenario is aimed at an even
the German Biomass Research Centre. The future development pathway
stronger decrease in CO2 emissions, especially given the uncertainty that
for car technologies is based on a special report produced in 2008 by the
even ten gigatonnes allowed per year might be too much to keep global
Institute of Vehicle Concepts, DLR for Greenpeace International.
temperature rises at bay. All general framework parameters, such as
population and economic growth, remain unchanged. The efficiency For details on these studies, as well as the assumptions on population and
pathway for industry and “other sectors” is also the same as in the basic economic growth rates, see the 2010 global Energy [R]evolution report.
Energy [R]evolution scenario. What is different is that the Advanced
references
scenario incorporates a stronger effort to develop better technologies to 91 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, ‘WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2007’, 2007
achieve CO2 reduction. So the transport sector factors in lower demand 92 SEE: PROF. ARTHOUROS ZERVOS, CHRISTINE LINS AND JOSCHE MUTH, RE-THINKING
2050: A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY VISION FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION, EUROPEAN
(compared to the basic scenario), resulting from a change in driving RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL (EREC), APRIL 2010.
patterns, a faster uptake of efficient combustion vehicles, and—after 93 GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD
ENERGY OUTLOOK, 2007 AND 2008.
2025—a larger share of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
53
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

5.2 oil and gas price projections As the supply of natural gas is limited by the availability of pipeline
infrastructure, there is no world market price for gas. In most regions of
The recent dramatic fluctuations in global oil prices have resulted in
the world, the gas price is directly tied to the price of oil. Gas prices are
slightly higher forward price projections for fossil fuels. Under the
therefore assumed to increase to $25–30/gigajoule (GJ) by 2050.
2004 “high oil and gas price” scenario from the European
5 Commission, for example, an oil price of just CA$39 per barrel (bbl)
was assumed in 2030. More recent projections of oil prices by 2030 5.3 cost of CO2 emissions
scenarios for a future energy supply |

in the IEA’s WEO 2009 range from CA$200890/bbl barrels in the


Assuming that a CO2 emissions trading system is established across all
lower-prices sensitivity case up to CA$2008170/bbl in the higher-
world regions in the longer term, the cost of CO2 allowances needs to be
prices sensitivity case. The reference scenario in WEO 2009 predicts
included in the calculation of electricity generation costs. Projections of
an oil price of CA$2008160/bbl.
emissions costs are even more uncertain than energy prices, however, and
Since the first Energy [R]evolution study was published in 2007, available studies span a broad range of future estimates. As in the
however, the actual price of oil has climbed to over CA$113/bbl for previous Energy [R]evolution study, we assume CO2 costs of CA$11/t CO2
the first time, and in July 2008 reached a record high of more than in 2010, rising to CA$57/t CO2 by 2050. Additional CO2 costs are applied
$140/bbl. Although oil prices fell back to CA$113/bbl in September in Kyoto Protocol Non-Annex B (developing) countries only after 2020.
2008 and around CA$90/bbl in April 2010, the projections in the
IEA reference scenario might still be considered to be too table 5.2: assumptions on CO2 emissions cost development
conservative. Taking into account the growing global demand for oil, (CA$/tCO2)
we have assumed a price development path for fossil fuels based on COUNTRIES 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
OIL AND GAS PROJECTIONS

the WEO 2009 higher-prices sensitivity case, extrapolated forward to


2050 (see Table 5.1). Kyoto Annex B countries 11.35 22.7 34 45 57
Non-Annex B countries 22.7 34 45 57

table 5.1: development projections for fossil fuel prices, in CA$2008

UNIT 2000 2005 2007 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Crude oil imports
IEA WEO 2009 “Reference” barrel 38.93 56.75 85.13 110.31 98.37 113.50 122.01 130.53
USA EIA 2008 “Reference” barrel 79.41 93.67
USA EIA 2008 “High Price” barrel 135.91 157.72
Energy [R]evolution 2010 barrel 125.49 147.55 158.90 170.25 150.00 150.00

Natural gas imports


IEA WEO 2009 “Reference”
United States GJ 5.68 2.63 3.68 9.88 8.73 10.62 12.02 13.60
Europe GJ 4.20 5.10 7.14 12.36 12.52 14.49 15.67 16.79
Japan LNG GJ 6.92 5.13 7.19 15.13 14.26 16.46 17.76 19.00
Energy [R]evolution 2010
United States GJ 5.68 2.63 3.68 9.88 9.51 12.14 14.07 16.32 20.54 26.93
Europe GJ 4.20 5.10 7.14 12.36 15.94 18.80 20.42 21.89 24.97 29.54
Japan LNG GJ 6.92 5.13 7.19 15.14 18.17 21.39 23.12 24.79 28.15 33.25

Hard coal imports


OECD steam coal imports
Energy [R]evolution 2010 tonne 131.83 153.69 158.33 161.96 181.60 195.56
IEA WEO 2009 “Reference” tonne 46.78 56.30 78.82 136.87 103.34 118.22 121.58 124.17

Biomass (solid)
Energy [R]evolution 2010
OECD Europe GJ 8.4 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.4 11.7 11.9
OECD Pacific and North America GJ 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.9
Other regions GJ 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.6
note GJ = GIGAJOULES.
source 2000–2030: IEA WEO 2009 HIGHER-PRICES SENSITIVITY CASE FOR CRUDE OIL, GAS AND STEAM COAL. 2040–2050 AND OTHER FUELS: ASSUMPTIONS OF AUTHOR.
54
image GEOTHERMAL POWER STATION,

© B. ERICKSON/DREAMSTIME
NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

© J. GOUGH/DREAMSTIME
image GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY.

5.4 cost projections for efficient fossil fuel Pipeline networks will also need to be constructed to move CO2 to storage
generation and carbon capture and storage (CCS) sites. This is likely to require a considerable outlay of capital.98 Costs will
vary depending on a number of factors, including pipeline length, diameter
While the fossil fuel power technologies in use today for coal, gas,
and manufacture from corrosion-resistant steel, as well as the volume of
lignite and oil are established and at an advanced stage of market
CO2 to be transported. Pipelines built near population centres or on
development, further cost reduction potentials are assumed. The
difficult terrain, such as marshy or rocky ground, are more expensive.99 5
potential for cost reductions is limited, however, and will be achieved
mainly through an increase in efficiency.94 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates a

scenarios for a future energy supply |


cost range for pipelines of $1–8/tonne of CO2 (t CO2) transported. A
There is much speculation about the potential for carbon capture and
United States Congressional Research Services report calculated capital
storage (CCS) to mitigate the effect of fossil fuel consumption on
costs for an 11-mile pipeline in the midwestern region of the US at
climate change, even though the technology is still under development.
approximately $6 million. The same report estimates that a dedicated
CCS is a means of trapping CO2 from fossil fuels, either before or after they interstate pipeline network in North Carolina would cost upwards of $5
are burned, and “storing” (effectively disposing of) it in the sea or beneath billion, due to the limited geological sequestration potential in that part
the surface of the earth. There are currently three different methods of of the country.100 Storage and subsequent monitoring and verification
capturing CO2: pre-combustion, post-combustion, and oxyfuel combustion. costs are estimated by the IPCC to range from $0.5–8.0/tCO2 (for
However, development is at a very early stage and CCS will not be storage) and $0.1–0.3/tCO2 (for monitoring). The overall cost of CCS
implemented, in the best case, before 2020 and will probably not become could therefore serve as a major barrier to its deployment.101
commercially viable as a possible effective mitigation option until 2030.
For the above reasons, CCS power plants are not included in our
Cost estimates for CCS vary considerably, depending on factors such as financial analysis.

COST PROJECTIONS
power station configuration, technology, fuel costs, size of project, and
Table 5.3 summarizes our assumptions on the technical and economic
location. One thing is certain, however: CCS is expensive. It requires
parameters of future fossil-fuelled power plant technologies. In spite of
significant funds to construct the power stations and the necessary
growing raw material prices, we assume that further technical innovation
infrastructure to transport and store carbon. The IPCC assesses costs at
will result in a moderate reduction of future investment costs as well as in
$15–75 per tonne of captured CO2 ,95 while a recent US Department of
improved power plant efficiencies. These improvements are, however,
Energy report found that installing carbon capture systems in most
outweighed by the expected increase in fossil fuel prices, resulting in a
modern plants resulted in a near-doubling of costs.96 These costs are
significant rise in electricity generation costs.
estimated to increase the price of electricity by 21–91%.97

table 5.3: development of efficiency and investment costs for selected power plant technologies
POWER PLANT POWER PLANT 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coal-fired condensing power plant Efficiency (%) 45 46 48 50 52 53


Investment costs ($/kW) 1,498 1396 1,351 1,317 1,283 1,249
Electricity generation costs including CO2 emission costs ($cents/kWh) 7.5 10.2 12.3 14.2 16.1 17.8
CO2 emissions a)(g/kWh) 744 728 697 670 644 632
Lignite-fired condensing power plant Efficiency (%) 41 43 44 44,5 45 45
Investment costs ($/kW) 1,782 1634 1,566 1,532 1,498 1,464
Electricity generation costs including CO2 emission costs ($cents/kWh) 6.7 7.4 8.5 9.5 10.6 11.7
CO2 emissions a)(g/kWh) 975 929 908 898 888 888
Natural gas combined cycle Efficiency (%) 57 59 61 62 63 64
Investment costs ($/kW) 1,107 1,054 1,031 1,019 1,008 1,008
Electricity generation costs including CO2 emission costs ($cents/kWh) 8.5 11.9 14.4 17.4 19.7 21.5
CO2 emissions a)(g/kWh) 354 342 330 325 320 315
note a) CO2 EMISSIONS REFER TO POWER STATION OUTPUTS ONLY; LIFE-CYCLE EMISSIONS ARE NOT CONSIDERED. G/KWH = GRAMS PER KILOWATT-HOUR.
source DLR, 2010.

98 RAGDEN, P ET AL., TECHNOLOGIES FOR CO2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE, FEDERAL


references ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY: BERLIN, GERMANY, (2006).
94 GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, “CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE,’ BRIEFING, GOERNE 2007. 99 HEDDLE, G ET AL., THE ECONOMICS OF CO2 STORAGE, MIT, (AUGUST 2003).
95 ABANADES, J C ET AL.. SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS IN IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON 100 PARFOMAK, P & FOLGER, P, PIPELINES FOR CARBON DIOXIDE ( CO2) CONTROL: NETWORK
CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE, CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS: CAMBRIDGE, NEEDS AND COST UNCERTAINTIES,U.S. CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICES, (2008).
U.K., (2005). 101 RUBIN, E ET AL., “COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENTS OF FOSSIL FUEL POWER PLANTS
96 NATIONAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY LABORATORIES, 2007. WITH CO2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE” IN PROCEEDINGS OF THE 7TH INTERNATIONAL
97 RUBIN, E ET AL., TECHNICAL SUMMARY IN IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON CARBON DIOXIDE CONFERENCE ON GREENHOUSE GAS CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES, VANCOUVER, CANADA,
CAPTURE AND STORAGE, CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS: CAMBRIDGE, U.K. (2005). SEPTEMBER 5-9, 2004.

55
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

5.5 cost projections for renewable energy technologies 5.5.1 photovoltaics


The range of renewable energy technologies available today displays The worldwide photovoltaics (PV) market has been growing at over
marked differences in terms of their technical maturity, costs, and 40% per annum in recent years and the contribution it can make to
development potential. Whereas hydro power has been widely used for electricity generation is starting to become significant. The
decades, other technologies, such as the gasification of biomass, have importance of photovoltaics comes from its decentralized/centralized
5 yet to find their way to market maturity. Some renewable sources, character, its flexibility for use in an urban environment and its huge
including wind and solar power, by their very nature provide a variable potential for cost reduction. Development work is focused on
scenarios for a future energy supply |

supply, requiring a revised coordination with the grid network. But improving existing modules and system components by increasing
although in many cases these are “distributed” technologies—their their energy efficiency and reducing material usage. Technologies like
output being generated for and used locally by the consumer—the PV thin film (using alternative semiconductor materials) or dye-
future will also see large-scale applications in the form of offshore sensitive solar cells are developing quickly and present a huge
wind parks, photovoltaic power plants or concentrating solar power potential for cost reduction. The mature technology known as
stations. crystalline silicon, with a proven lifetime of 30 years, is continually
increasing its cell and module efficiency (by 0.5% annually), while
By using the individual advantages of the different technologies, and
the cell thickness is rapidly decreasing (from 230 to 180 microns
linking them with each other, a wide spectrum of available options can
over the last five years). Commercial module efficiency varies from 14
be developed to market-maturity and integrated step by step into the
to 21%, depending on silicon quality and fabrication process.
existing supply structures. This will eventually provide a
complementary portfolio of environmentally friendly technologies for The learning factor for PV modules has been fairly constant over the
heat and power supply and the provision of transport fuels. last 30 years, with a cost reduction of 20% each time the installed
COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES

capacity doubles, indicating a high rate of technical learning.


Many of the renewable technologies employed today are at a relatively
Assuming a globally installed capacity of 1,000 GW by between
early stage of market development. As a result, the costs of electricity,
2030 and 2040 in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario, and with
heat and fuel production are generally higher than those of competing
an electricity output of 1,400 TWh/a , we can expect that generation
conventional systems—a reminder that the external (environmental and
costs of around CA$0.06–0.11/kWh (depending on the region) will be
social) costs of conventional power production are not included in
achieved. During the following five to ten years, PV will become
market prices. It is expected, however, that compared with conventional
competitive with retail electricity prices in many parts of the world,
technologies, large cost reductions can be achieved through technical
and competitive with fossil fuel costs by 2030. The advanced Energy
advances, manufacturing improvements and large-scale production.
[R]evolution version shows faster growth, with PV capacity reaching
Especially when developing long-term scenarios spanning periods of
1,000 GW by 2025—five years ahead of the basic scenario.
several decades, the dynamic trend of cost developments over time
plays a crucial role in identifying economically sensible expansion
strategies.
table 5.4: photovoltaics (pv) cost assumptions
To identify long-term cost developments, learning curves have been
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
applied which reflect the correlation between cumulative production Energy [R]evolution
volumes of a particular technology and a reduction in its costs. For
Global installed capacity (GW) 6 98 335 1,036 1,915 2,968
many technologies, the learning factor (or progress ratio) falls in the
Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 4,252 2,962 2,016 1,166 891 864
range between 0.75, for less mature systems, and 0.95 and higher, for
well-established technologies. A learning factor of 0.9 means that Operation & maintenance 75 43 18 15 12 11
costs (Can$/kW/a)
costs are expected to fall by 10% every time the cumulative output
from the technology doubles. Empirical data show, for example, that Advanced Energy [R]evolution
the learning factor for PV solar modules has been fairly constant at
Global installed capacity (GW) 6 108 439 1,330 2,959 4,318
0.8 over 30 years, while that for wind energy varies from 0.75 in the
Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 4,252 2,962 2,016 1,166 864 837
UK to 0.94 in the more advanced German market.
Operation & maintenance 75 43 18 15 12 11
Assumptions on future costs for renewable electricity technologies in costs (Can$/kW/a)
the Energy [R]evolution scenario are derived from a review of note GW = GIGAWATTS; KWP = KILOWATTS PHOTOVOLTAIC; KW/A = KILOWATTS PER ANNUM.
learning-curve studies, for example by Lena Neij and others;102 the
analysis of recent technology foresight and road-mapping studies,
including the European Commission–funded NEEDS project;103 the
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008; projections by the
European Renewable Energy Council published in April 2010 (“Re-
102 NEIJ, L, ‘COST DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES FOR POWER GENERATION - A
Thinking 2050”); and discussions with experts from a wide range of STUDY BASED ON EXPERIENCE CURVES AND COMPLEMENTARY BOTTOM-UP
different sectors of the renewable energy industry. ASSESSMENTS’, ENERGY POLICY 36 (2008), 2200-2211.
103 NEW ENERGY EXTERNALITIES DEVELOPMENTS FOR SUSTAINABILITY (NEEDS),
ONLINE AT <WWW.NEEDS-PROJECT.ORG>.

56
image AERIAL VIEW OF THE WORLD’S
LARGEST OFFSHORE WINDPARK
IN THE NORTH SEA HORNS REV

© GP/MARTIN ZAKORA
IN ESBJERG, DENMARK.

5.5.2 concentrating solar power 5.5.3 wind power


“Concentrating” solar thermal power (CSP) stations can only use Within a short period of time, the dynamic development of wind
direct sunlight and are therefore dependent on high-irradiation power has resulted in the establishment of a flourishing global
locations. North Africa, for example, has a technical potential which market. While favourable policy incentives have made Europe the
far exceeds local demand. The various solar thermal technologies main driver for the global wind market, in 2009 more than three
(parabolic trough, power towers, and parabolic dish concentrators) quarters of the annual capacity installed was outside Europe. This 5
offer good prospects for further development and cost reductions. trend is likely to continue. The boom in demand for wind power

scenarios for a future energy supply |


Because of their simpler design, “Fresnel” collectors are considered technology has nonetheless led to supply constraints. As a
an option for additional cost trimming. The efficiency of central consequence, the cost of new systems has increased. However, because
receiver systems can be increased by producing compressed air at a of the continuous expansion of production capacities, the industry is
temperature of up to 1,0000C, which is then used to run a combined already resolving the bottlenecks in the supply chain. Taking into
gas and steam turbine. account market development projections, learning-curve analysis, and
industry expectations, we assume that investment costs for wind
Thermal storage systems are a key component for reducing CSP
turbines will be reduced by 30% for onshore and by 50% for
electricity generation costs. The Spanish Andasol 1 plant, for example,
offshore installations up to 2050.
is equipped with molten salt storage with a capacity of 7.5 hours. A
higher level of full-load operation can be realized by using a thermal
storage system and a large collector field. Although this leads to
higher investment costs, it reduces the cost of electricity generation.

COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES


Depending on the level of irradiation and the mode of operation, it is
expected that long-term future electricity generation costs of
CA$0.07–0.11/kWh can be achieved. This presupposes rapid market
introduction in the next few years.

table 5.5: generation from csp, 2007–2050 table 5.6: generation from wind power, 2007–2050
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy [R]evolution Energy [R]evolution
Global installed capacity (GW) 1 25 105 324 647 1,002 Installed capacity (on+offshore) 95 407 878 1,733 2,409 2,943
Investment costs (Can$/kW)* 8,229 6,329 5,725 4,839 4,767 4,722 Wind onshore
Operation & maintenance 341 284 238 204 182 176 Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 1,714 1,424 1,133 1,081 1,029 1,015
costs (Can$/kW/a)
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 66 58 51 49 47 47
Advanced Energy [R]evolution Wind offshore
Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 3,292 2,497 1,748 1,657 1,510 1,481
Global installed capacity (GW) 1 28 225 605 1,173 1,643
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 188 174 129 110 100 94
Investment costs (Can$/kW)* 8,229 6,329 5,725 4,767 4,722 4,677
Operation & maintenance 341 284 238 204 182 176 Advanced Energy [R]evolution
costs (Can$/kW/a)
Installed capacity (on+offshore) 95 494 1140 2241 3054 3754
note GW = GIGAWATTS; KWP = KILOWATTS PHOTOVOLTAIC; KW/A = KILOWATTS PER ANNUM.
Wind onshore
Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 1,714 1,424 1,133 1,029 1,015 1,001
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 66 58 51 49 47 47
Wind offshore
Investment costs (Can$/kWp) 3,292 2,497 1,748 1,657 1,510 1,481
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 188 174 129 110 100 94

note GW = GIGAWATTS; KWP = KILOWATTS PHOTOVOLTAIC; KW/A = KILOWATTS PER ANNUM.


57
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

5.5.4 biomass less than half of today’s annual consumption of fuelwood. The remaining
4–5 EJ per year will come from dedicated bioenergy crops, which
The crucial factor for the economics of biomass utilization is the cost of
translates roughly to 10–15 million hectares of dedicated bioenergy
the feedstock, which today ranges from a negative cost for waste wood
cropland needed. This is less than 1% of today’s global cropland and
(based on credit for waste disposal costs avoided) through inexpensive
probably less than today’s already existing bioenergy cropland. Pressure
residual materials to the more-expensive energy crops. The resulting
5 to expand croplands can also be eased through a shift to a less meat-
spectrum of energy generation costs is correspondingly broad. One of the
intensive diet, particularly in the developed world.
most economic options is the use of waste wood in steam turbine combined
scenarios for a future energy supply |

heat and power (CHP) plants. Gasification of solid biomass, on the other A large potential for exploiting modern technologies exists in Latin and
hand, which opens up a wide range of applications, is still relatively North America, Europe, and the countries of transition economies, either
expensive. In the long term, it is expected that favourable electricity in stationary appliances or the transport sector. In the long term, Europe
production costs will be achieved by using wood gas both in micro–CHP and the transition economies will realize 20–50% of the potential for
units (engines and fuel cells) and in gas-and-steam power plants. Great biomass from energy crops, while biomass use in all the other regions will
potential for the utilization of solid biomass also exists for heat generation have to rely on forest residues, industrial wood waste, and straw. In Latin
in both small and large heating centres linked to local heating networks. America, North America and Africa in particular, an increasing residue
Converting crops into ethanol and “biodiesel,” made from rapeseed methyl potential will be available.
ester (RME), has become increasingly important in recent years; for
In other regions, such as the Middle East and all Asian regions, increased
example, in Brazil, the US and Europe. Processes for obtaining synthetic
use of biomass is restricted, either due to a generally low availability or to
fuels from biogenic synthesis gases will also play a larger role.
already high traditional use. For the latter, using modern, more-efficient
At the global level, the Energy [R]evolution scenario assumes roughly 88 technologies will improve the sustainability of current usage and have
COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES

exajoules (EJ) of primary energy coming from biomass in 2050. The positive side effects, such as reducing indoor pollution and the heavy
bulk of this (75 EJ per year) is crop harvest residues (e.g., straw, stalk workloads currently associated with traditional biomass use.
and leaves) and crop process residues (e.g., oilcakes, hulls and shells)
and assumes that the majority (75%) of the crop harvest residues and
5.5.5 geothermal
total crop biomass will remain in the field for carbon and nutrient
recycling purposes. About 8–9 EJ per year will come from wood Geothermal energy has long been used worldwide for supplying heat,
processing residues (e.g,. from sawmills) and discarded wood products. and since the beginning of the last century for electricity generation.
This equals 0.7–0.8 billion cubic metres of wood residues per year, or Geothermally generated electricity was previously limited to sites with

table 5.7: biomass cost assumptions table 5.8: geothermal cost assumptions
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy [R]evolution Energy [R]evolution
Biomass (electricity only) Geothermal (electricity only)
Global installed capacity (GW) 28 48 62 75 87 107 Global installed capacity (GW) 10 19 36 71 114 144
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 3,198 2,783 2,764 2,698 2,666 2,640 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 14,126 12,343 10,423 8,229 6,857 5,897
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 208 188 173 168 167 166 O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 732 632 486 426 398 377
Biomass (CHP) Geothermal (CHP)
Global installed capacity (GW) 18 67 150 261 413 545 Global installed capacity (GW) 1 3 13 37 83 134
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 5,959 4,829 4,224 3,689 3,400 3,230 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 14,401 12,618 10,698 8,503 7,132 6,172
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 459 395 308 268 247 235 O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 734 548 398 334 291 264

Advanced Energy [R]evolution Advanced Energy [R]evolution


Biomass (electricity only) Geothermal (electricity only)
Global installed capacity (GW) 28 50 64 78 83 81 Global installed capacity (GW) 10 21 57 191 337 459
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 3,198 2,783 2,764 2,698 2,666 2,640 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 14,126 12,343 10,423 5,897 5,072 4,362
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 208 188 173 168 167 166 O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 732 632 486 426 398 377
Biomass (CHP) Geothermal (CHP)
Global installed capacity (GW) 18 65 150 265 418 540 Global installed capacity (GW) 0 3 13 47 132 234
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 5,959 4,829 4,224 3,689 3,400 3,230 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 14,401 12,618 10,698 8,503 7,132 6,172
O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 459 395 308 268 247 235 O&M costs (Can$/kW/a) 734 548 398 334 291 264
note GW = GIGAWATTS; KWP = KILOWATTS PHOTOVOLTAIC; KW/A = KILOWATTS PER ANNUM; note GW = GIGAWATTS; KWP = KILOWATTS PHOTOVOLTAIC; KW/A = KILOWATTS PER ANNUM;
CHP = COMBINED HEAT AND POWER. CHP = COMBINED HEAT AND POWER.

58
image A COW INFRONT OF A
BIOREACTOR IN THE BIOENERGY
VILLAGE OF JUEHNDE. IT IS THE FIRST

© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
COMMUNITY IN GERMANY THAT
PRODUCES ALL OF ITS ENERGY NEEDED
FOR HEATING AND ELECTRICITY, WITH
CO2 NEUTRAL BIOMASS.

specific geological conditions, but further intensive research and the resource, and a technology with very low visual impact and no CO2
development work has enabled the potential areas to be widened. In emissions. Many different concepts and devices have been developed,
particular, the creation of large, underground heat-exchange surfaces— including taking energy from the tides, waves, currents and both
enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs)—and the improvement of low- thermal and saline gradient resources. Many of these are in an
temperature power conversion (for example, with the organic Rankine advanced phase of research and development (R&D), large-scale
cycle) open up the possibility of producing geothermal electricity prototypes have been deployed in real sea conditions and some have 5
anywhere. Advanced heat and power cogeneration plants will also reached pre-market deployment. There are a few grid-connected, fully

scenarios for a future energy supply |


improve the economics of geothermal electricity. operational commercial wave and tidal generating plants.
As a large part of the costs for a geothermal power plant comes from The cost of energy from initial tidal and wave energy farms has been
deep underground drilling, further development of innovative drilling estimated to be in the range of €0.15–0.55/kWh, and for initial tidal
technology is expected. Assuming a global average market growth for stream farms in the range of CA$0.12–0.25/kWh. Generation costs of
geothermal power capacity of 9% per year up to 2020, and adjusting €0.10–0.25/kWh are expected by 2020. Key areas for development will
to 4% beyond 2030, the result would be a cost reduction potential of include concept design, optimization of the device configuration, reduction
50% by 2050: of capital costs by exploring the use of alternative structural materials,
economies of scale, and learning from operation. According to the latest
• For conventional geothermal power, the price would drop from
research findings, the learning factor is estimated to be 10–15% for
CA$0.08/kWh to about CA$0.03/kWh.
offshore wave and 5–10% for tidal stream. In the medium term, ocean
• For EGS, despite its presently high figures (about CA$0.20/kWh), energy has the potential to become one of the most competitive and cost-
and depending on the payments for heat supply, electricity effective forms of generation. In the next few years a dynamic market

COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES


production costs are expected to come down to around penetration is expected, following a similar curve to that of wind energy.
CA$0.06/kWh in the long term.
Because of the early development stage, any future cost estimates for
Because of its non-fluctuating supply and a grid load operating almost ocean energy systems are uncertain. Present cost estimates are based
100% of the time, geothermal energy is considered to be a key element on analysis from the European NEEDS project.104
in a future supply structure based on renewable sources. Up to now we
have only used a marginal part of the potential. Shallow geothermal
5.5.7 hydro power
drilling, for example, makes possible the delivery of heating and cooling
at any time anywhere, and can be used for thermal energy storage. Hydropower is a mature technology with a significant part of its global
resource already exploited. There is still, however, some potential left
both for new schemes (especially small-scale, run-of-river projects with
5.5.6 ocean energy
little or no reservoir impoundment) and for repowering of existing sites.
Ocean energy, particularly offshore wave energy, is a significant The significance of hydropower is also likely to be encouraged by the
resource, and has the potential to satisfy an important percentage of increasing need for flood control and the maintenance of water supply
electricity supply worldwide. Globally, the potential of ocean energy has during dry periods. The future is in sustainable hydropower, which makes
been estimated at around 90,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) /year. The most an effort to integrate plants with river ecosystems while reconciling
significant advantages are the vast availability and high predictability of ecology with economically attractive power generation.

table 5.9: ocean energy cost assumptions table 5.10: hydro power cost assumptions
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy [R]evolution Energy [R]evolution
Global installed capacity (GW) 0 9 29 73 168 303 Global installed capacity (GW) 922 1,043 1,206 1,307 1,387 1,438
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 8,190 4,417 3,185 2,449 2,045 1,821 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 3,070 3,250 3,351 3,501 3,628 3,739
Operation & maintenance 409 235 133 101 85 75 Operation & maintenance 125 131 140 145 151 155
costs (Can$/kW/a) costs (Can$/kW/a)

Advanced Energy [R]evolution Advanced Energy [R]evolution


Global installed capacity (GW) 0 9 58 180 425 748 Global installed capacity (GW) 922 1,111 1,212 1,316 1,406 1,451
Investment costs (Can$/kW) 8,190 4,417 3,185 2,045 1,821 1,622 Investment costs (Can$/kW) 3,070 3,250 3,351 3,501 3,628 3,739
Operation & maintenance 409 235 133 101 85 75 Operation & maintenance 125 131 140 145 151 155
costs (Can$/kW/a) costs (Can$/kW/a)
note GW = GIGAWATTS; KWP = KILOWATTS PHOTOVOLTAIC; KW/A = KILOWATTS PER ANNUM. note GW = GIGAWATTS; KWP = KILOWATTS PHOTOVOLTAIC; KW/A = KILOWATTS PER ANNUM.

104 NEW ENERGY EXTERNALITIES DEVELOPMENTS FOR SUSTAINABILITY (NEEDS),


ONLINE AT <WWW.NEEDS-PROJECT.ORG>.

59
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

5.5.8 Summary of renewable energy cost development 5.5.9 Assumed growth rates in different scenarios
Figure 5.1 summarizes the cost trends for renewable energy In scientific literature,105 quantitative scenario modelling approaches are
technologies as derived from the respective learning curves. It should broadly separated into two groups: “top-down” and “bottom-up”
be emphasized that the expected cost reduction is basically not a models. While this classification might have made sense in the past, it is
function of time, but of cumulative capacity, so dynamic market less appropriate today, since the transition between the two categories
5 development is required. Most of the technologies will be able to is continuous, and many models, while being rooted in one of the two
reduce their specific investment costs to between 30% and 70% of traditions—macro-economic or energy-engineering—incorporate
scenarios for a future energy supply |

current levels by 2020, and to between 20% and 60% once they aspects from the other approach and thus belong to the class of so-
have achieved full maturity (after 2040). called hybrid models.106 In the energy-economic modelling community,
macro-economic approaches are traditionally classified as top-down
Reduced investment costs for renewable energy technologies lead
models and energy-engineering models as bottom-up. The Energy
directly to reduced heat and electricity generation costs, as shown in
[R]evolution scenario is a bottom-up (technology-driven) scenario and
Figure 5.2. Generation costs today are around CA$0.09–0.28/kWh
the assumed growth rates for renewable energy technology deployment
for the most important technologies, with the exception of
are important drivers.
photovoltaics. In the long term, costs are expected to converge at
around CA$0.05–0.11/kWh. These estimates depend on site-specific Around the world, however, energy modelling scenario tools are under
conditions such as the local wind regime or solar irradiation, the constant development and in the future both approaches are likely to
availability of biomass at reasonable prices, or the credit granted for merge into one, with detailed tools employing both a high level of
heat supply, in the case of combined heat and power generation. technical detail and economic optimisation. To reach the figures seen
in Table 5.11, the Energy [R]evolution scenarios use a classical
COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES

bottom-up model which has been continuously developed and now


includes calculations covering both the investment pathway and the
employment effect (see Chapter 7).

figure 5.1: future development of investment costs figure 5.2: expected development of electricity generation
(NORMALIZED TO CURRENT COST LEVELS) FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY costs from fossil fuel and renewable options
TECHNOLOGIES EXAMPLE FOR OECD NORTH AMERICA

120 40
35
100
30
80
25
60 20
15
40
10
20
5
%0 ct/kWh 0
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

•• PV
WIND ONSHORE
•• PV
WIND

•• WIND OFFSHORE
BIOMASS POWER PLANT
•• BIOMASS CHP
GEOTHERMAL CHP

•• BIOMASS CHP
GEOTHERMAL CHP
• CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL

•• CONCENTRATING SOLAR THERMAL


OCEAN ENERGY
note CT/KWH = CENTS PER KILOWATT-HOUR; PV = PHOTOVOLTAICS; CHP = COMBINED HEAT
AND POWER.

note PV = PHOTOVOLTAICS; CHP = COMBINED HEAT AND POWER.


47 HERZOG ET AL., 2005; BARKER ET AL., 2007.
48 VAN VUUREN ET AL.; HOURCADE ET AL., 2006.

60
image CONSTRUCTION
OF WIND TURBINES.

© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
table 5.11: assumed annual average growth rates for renewable technologies

TECHNOLOGY ENERGY PARAMETER


GENERATION (TWh/a)
REF REF E[R] ADV E[R] REF E[R] ADV E[R]
5
2020 27,248 25,851 25,919

scenarios for a future energy supply |


2030 34,307 30,133 30,901
2050 46,542 37,993 43,922

Solar
PV-2020 108 437 594 17% 37% 42%
PV-2030 281 1,481 1,953 11% 15% 14%
PV-2050 640 4,597 6,846 10% 13% 15%
CSP-2020 38 321 689 17% 49% 62%
CSP-2030 121 1,447 2,734 14% 18% 17%
CSP-2050 254 5,917 9,012 9% 17% 14%

Wind
On+Offshore-2020 1,009 2,168 2,849 12% 22% 26%
On+Offshore-2030 1,536 4,539 5,872 5% 9% 8%
On+Offshore-2050 2,516 8,474 10,841 6% 7% 7%

COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES


Geothermal
2020 (power generation) 117 235 367 6% 14% 20%
2030 (power generation) 168 502 1,275 4% 9% 15%
2050 (power generation) 265 1,009 2,968 5% 8% 10%
2020 (heat&power) 6 65 66 13% 47% 47%
2030 (heat&power) 9 192 251 5% 13% 16%
2050 (heat&power) 19 719 1,263 9% 16% 20%

Bioenergy
2020 (power generation) 337 373 392 8% 9% 10%
2030 (power generation) 552 456 481 6% 2% 2%
2050 (power generation) 994 717 580 7% 5% 2%
2020 (heat&power) 186 739 742 2% 19% 19%
2030 (heat&power) 287 1,402 1,424 5% 7% 8%
2050 (heat&power) 483 3,013 2,991 6% 9% 9%

Ocean
2020 3 53 119 15% 55% 70%
2030 11 128 420 13% 10% 15%
2050 25 678 1,943 10% 20% 19%

Hydro
2020 4,027 4,029 4,059 2% 2% 2%
2030 4,679 4,370 4,416 2% 1% 1%
2050 5,963 5,056 5,108 3% 2% 2%

note TWH/A = TERAWATT HOURS PER ANNUM; PV = PHOTOVOLTAICS; CSP = CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER.

61
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 5.1: CO2 emissions reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

5
scenarios for a future energy supply |
CO 2 EMISSIONS

EMISSIONS

CO2
LEGEND

100-75 75-50 50-25 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO


OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA
25-0 % OF 1990 EMISSIONS IN E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO
THE 2050 ADVANCED
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
SCENARIO REF E[R] REF E[R]
mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t %
0 1000 KM
2007 6,686H 165 6,686 165 2007 1,010 167M 1,010 167
CO2 CO2
2050 6,822 169 215M 5 2050 2,006 332M 119L 20
t t t t

2007 14.89H 14.89 2007 2.18 2.18


2050 11.82H 0.37 2050 3.34 0.20L

CO2 EMISSIONS TOTAL


MILLION TONNES [mio t] | % OF 1990 EMISSIONS

EMISSIONS PER PERSON TONNES [t]

H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST

62
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t %

2007 4,017M 100 4,017 100 2007 1,374 234 1,374 234 2007 5,852 261 5,852 261 2007 2,650 66 2,650 66
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2
2050 3,798 94 215 5 2050 3,208 546 122 21 2050 12,460H 555 925H 41 2050 3,564 88 258 6
t t t t t t t t

2007 7.44 7.44 2007 6.79M 6.79 2007 4.38 4.38 2007 7.79 7.79
2050 6.61M 0.36 2050 9.08 0.35 2050 8.74 0.65 2050 11.47 0.83H

scenarios for a future energy supply |


GLOBAL

REF E[R]
mio t % mio t %

CO 2 EMISSIONS
2007 27,408 131 27,408 131
CO2
2050 44,259 211 3,267 16
t t

2007 4.1 4.1


2050 4.8 0.4

AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA OECD PACIFIC

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t % mio t %

2007 881L 161 881 161 2007 1,307 222 1,307 222 2007 1,488 216 1,488 216 2007 2,144 136 2,144 136
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2
2050 1,622L 297 423 77 2050 5,110 868 449 85 2050 3,846M 557 428 62 2050 1,822 116 74 5
t t t t t t t t

2007 0.91L 0.91 2007 1.12 1.12 2007 1.47 1.47 2007 10.70 10.70
2050 0.81L 0.21 2050 3.17 0.31 2050 2.54 0.28 2050 10.14 0.41M

DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.

63
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 5.2: results reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

5
scenarios for a future energy supply |
RESULTS

SCENARIO

RESULTS
LEGEND

> -50 > -40 > -30 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO


OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA
> -20 > -10 >0 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO

REF E[R] REF E[R]


> +10 > +20 > +30
PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh

2007 115,758H 5,221H 115,758H 5,221 2007 22,513L 998 22,513L 998
> +40 > +50 % CHANGE OF ENERGY
CONSUMPTION IN THE ADVANCED 2050 129,374 7,917 70,227 7,925 2050 40,874 2,480 27,311 2,927
ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 0 1000 KM
2050 COMPARED TO CURRENT % % % %
CONSUMPTION 2007
2007 7 15 7 15 2007 29 70H 29 70H
SHARE OF RENEWABLES %
2050 15 25 85 98 2050 28 57H 88H 98
% % % %
SHARE OF FOSSIL FUELS %
2007 85 67M 85 67M 2007 70L 28L 70L 28L

SHARE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY % 2050 75 59M 9 2 2050 69 40L 12L 2


% % % %

H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST 2007 8 18 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 1 2 NUCLEAR POWER


PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
PE PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION/DEMAND IN PETA JOULE [PJ] 2050 10 16 BY 2040 2050 3 2 BY 2030
EL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION/GENERATION IN TERAWATT HOURS [TWh]

64
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh

2007 79,599 3,576 79,599 3,576 2007 21,372 715 21,372 715 2007 83,922 3,319 83,922 3,319 2007 48,111M 1,685 48,111M 1,685
2050 82,634 5,351 46,754 4,233 2050 51,281 2,404 27,475 2,786L 2050 183,886H12,188H 107,104H 10,190H 2050 64,449 3,110 34,710 2,438
% % % % % % % %

2007 10 20 10 20 2007 1L 3 1L 3L 2007 12M 15 12M 15 2007 4 17M 4 17M


2050 21 42 85 97 2050 2L 7 76 99H 2050 10 18 77L 90 2050 7 22M 76 93
% % % % % % % %

2007 77 54 77 54 2007 99H 97 99H 97H 2007 87 83 87 83 2007 89 65 89 65


2050 71 46 16 2 2050 97H 92 23 1L 2050 85 75 23H 10H 2050 85 63 24 7
% % % % % % % %

2007 13 26H NUCLEAR POWER 2007 0L 0 NO NUCLEAR 2007 1 2 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 7M 17 NUCLEAR POWER
PHASED OUT ENERGY PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
2050 8 12 BY 2030 2050 0L 0 DEVELOPMENT 2050 5 7 BY 2045 2050 8 15 BY 2045

scenarios for a future energy supply |


GLOBAL

REF E[R]
PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh

2007 490,229 19,773 490,229 19,773


2050 783,458 46,542 480,861 43,922
% %

RESULTS
2007 13 18 13 18
2050 15 24 80 95
% %

2007 81 68 81 68
2050 79 67 20 5
% %

2007 6 14 NUCLEAR POWER


PHASED OUT
2050 6 10 BY 2045

AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA OECD PACIFIC

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh PE PJ EL TWh

2007 26,355 615L 26,355 615L 2007 25,159 814 25,159 814 2007 31,903 978 31,903 978 2007 37,588 1,851M 37,588 1,851M
2050 43,173 1,826L 35,805 2,490L 2050 77,7610M 4,918 52,120 5,062 2050 69,233 3,721 40,639 3,548 2050 40,793 2,626 21,299L 2,322
% % % % % % % %

2007 48H 16 48H 16 2007 29 17 29 17 2007 27 16 27 16 2007 4 8 4 8


2050 45H 36 79M 94 2050 13 12 78 93L 2050 19 21 73L 94 2050 10 16 84 98M
% % % % % % % %

2007 51 82 51 82 2007 70 81 70 81 2007 72 79 72 79 2007 84 70 84 70


2050 54L 62 20M 6 2050 84 85 22 7 2050 79 77 27 6 2050 66 51 16 2M
% % % % % % % %

2007 0L 2 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 1 2 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 1 5M NUCLEAR POWER 2007 12H 22 NUCLEAR POWER
PHASED OUT PHASED OUT PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
2050 0L 2 BY 2025 2050 3 3 BY 2045 2050 2 2 BY 2045 2050 24H 33H BY 2045

DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.

65
key results: the canadian energy [r]evolution scenario
CANADA CANADIAN ENERGY DEMAND TO 2050 FUTURE EMPLOYMENT CANADA’S PRIMARY ENERGY
ELECTRICITY GENERATION HEATING AND COOLING SUPPLY CONSUMPTION
FUTURE COSTS OF ELECTRICITY TRANSPORT FUTURE INVESTMENT
GENERATION CANADA’S CO2 EMISSIONS

6 “We need staggering


amounts of energy
conservation, emissions
cuts and renewable energy.
ge S
ima

RP
OLA
L. ©
ANE
BER
JUE
ND

DRE
NS/
RGE

STI
AM
E
M

And all need to be deployed


at an unprecedented rate.”
DR. ANDREW WEAVER
IPCC SCIENTIST AND CANADA RESEARCH CHAIR IN CLIMATE MODELLING AND ANALYSIS UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA

66
image SOLAR PANEL ON MEDIA ADVERTISING, VANCOUVER, BC, CANADA.

© ANNA RZEPKOWSKA/ISTOCK
image WIND TURBINES UNDER THE SUN, ONTARIO, CANADA.

© PGIAM/ISTOCK
6.1 canadian energy demand to 2050 Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the
basic Energy [R]evolution scenario demand for heat supply
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth,
constantly decreases through 2050 (see Figure 6.3). Compared to
and energy intensity results in future development pathways for
the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,094 PJ/a is
Canada’s final energy demand. These are shown in Figure 6.1 for the
avoided through efficiency gains by 2050 in both Energy
Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference
[R]evolution scenarios. As a result of energy-related renovation of

key results |
scenario, final energy demand (without non-energy use) increases by
the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the
28% from the current 7,614 petajoules per annum (PJ/a) to 9,746
introduction of low-energy standards and of “passive houses” for
PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final energy demand
new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services
decreases by 44% compared to current consumption and is expected to
will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand
reach 4,280 PJ/a by 2050.

CANADIAN ENERGY DEMAND TO 2050


In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy
Under the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario electricity demand is
[R]evolution scenarios that energy demand will decrease by 48%
expected to decrease in the industry sector, stay steady in the
relative to current levels by 2050. This is 56% lower than what
residential and service sectors, but to grow in the transport sector (see
would happen to transport energy demand by 2050 in the
Figure 6.2). Total electricity demand will rise from 1,830 PJ/a to
Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the
1,943 PJ/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario,
introduction of highly efficient vehicles; by shifting the transport
efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 996 PJ/a. This
of goods from road to rail; and by changes in mobility-related
reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient
behaviour patterns. The Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario
electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand
has a higher share of electric drives, further reducing greenhouse
sectors. In the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, total electricity
gas emissions.
demand is even higher at 2,113 PJ/a due to a greater reliance on
electricity for use in transport.

figure 6.1: projection of final energy demand in canada to 2050, by sector, under three scenarios

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000
•• ‘EFFICIENCY’
OTHER SECTORS
1,000

PJ/a 0
•• INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT

REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]

2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

67
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

figure 6.2: development of electricity demand in canada to figure 6.3: development of heat demand in canada to
2050, by sector, under three scenarios 2050, by sector, under three scenarios

3,500 4,000

3,000 3,500

3,000
2,500
2,500
6 2,000
2,000
key results |

1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500 500

PJ/a 0 PJ/a 0
ELECTRICITY GENERATION

E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]

2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

•• •••
‘EFFICIENCY’ ‘EFFICIENCY’
OTHER SECTORS OTHER SECTORS

•• INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
INDUSTRY

6.2 electricity generation table 6.1: projection of renewable electricity capacity


in canada under both energy [r]evolution scenarios
The development of the electricity supply sector is characterized by a
IN GW
dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing
share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing- 2007 2020 2030 2040 2050
out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel–fired
power plants required for grid stabilization. Hydro E[R] 77 82 94 87 93
advanced E[R] 77 89 94 100 100
By 2050, in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario, 95% of the
electricity produced in Canada will come from renewable energy Biomass E[R] 2 4 5 5 8
sources. “New” renewables—mainly wind, solar photovoltaic (PV)— advanced E[R] 2 2 3 4 6
will contribute over 19% of electricity generation. Under the Wind E[R] 2 10 20 32 38
Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, this will not increase advanced E[R] 2 19 33 48 54
significantly: 78% by 2030 and 96% by 2050 will come from Geothermal E[R] 0 0 0 0 0
renewables. However, the overall installed capacity of renewable advanced E[R] 0 1 1 2 3
generation will be higher under the Advanced Energy [R]evolution
PV E[R] 0 3 5 6 7
scenario (191 GW) than under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.
advanced E[R] 0 3 5 6 7
Table 6.1 shows the comparative evolution of different renewables CSP E[R] 0 0 0 0 0
technologies over time. Until 2030, hydro power and wind will remain advanced E[R] 0 0 0 0 0
the main contributors. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will
Ocean energy E[R] 0 3 6 10 14
be complemented by electricity from sustainably-produced biomass,
advanced E[R] 0 3 7 15 20
photovoltaic and ocean energy.
Total E[R] 81 101 119 141 160
advanced E[R] 81 116 142 175 190

68
© F LARIVIERE/DREAMSTIME.COM
image HIGH VOLTATE STEEL
PYLONS, CANADA.

© ANDREW WRIGHT / GP
image WATERFALL IN THE GREAT
BEAR RAINFOREST, IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA, CANADA.

figure 6.4: development of electricity generation structure in canada to 2050, under three scenarios
(REFERENCE, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION AND ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION) [“EFFICIENCY” = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO]

1,100

1,000

•••
‘EFFICIENCY’
900
OCEAN ENERGY
800 SOLAR THERMAL

•• GEOTHERMAL

key results |
700
BIOMASS
600

500
•• PV
WIND

•• HYDRO

FUTURE COSTS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION


400
DIESEL
300
•• OIL
NATURAL GAS
200

100
•• LIGNITE
COAL

TWh/a 0
REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
• NUCLEAR

E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]


2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

6.3 future costs of electricity generation figure 6.5: development of total electricity generation
costs & development of specific electricity generation
Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in electricity
costs to 2050, under three scenarios
demand, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2
emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from
CA$37 billion in 2007 to CA$92 billion in 2050, as shown in Figure B $/a $¢/kWh
6.5. The Energy [R]evolution scenarios not only dramatically reduce 110 12
greenhouse gases, but also help to stabilize energy costs and relieve 100
90 10
economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and
80
shifting energy supply to renewables result in long-term costs for 8
70
electricity supply that are 45% lower in the Advanced Energy
60
[R]evolution scenario and 50% lower in the Energy [R]evolution 50
6
scenario. The higher total cost of the Advanced Energy [R]evolution 40 4
scenario, as compared to the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario, 30
results from a higher requirement for electricity due to the increasing 20 2
electrification of the transport and heating sectors. 10
0 0
Figure 6.6 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
under the Energy [R]evolution scenario has slightly higher specific
costs for electricity generation, compared to those under the
Reference scenario, until 2045. The Advanced Energy [R]evolution
scenario has slightly higher specific costs until 2035. The lower costs

•••
seen under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios are due to the reduced ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION - ‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES
CO2 intensity of electricity generation and the related costs for REFERENCE SCENARIO
emission allowances, as well as to better economies of scale in the ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO
production of renewable power equipment.
In 2050, specific costs (for both generation and efficiency measures)
• ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO

will amount to 7.0 cents/kWh in the Advanced Energy [R]evolution


scenario; 7.2 cents/kWh in the Energy [R]evolution scenario; and
10.2 cents/kWh in the Reference scenario.

69
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

6.4 future employment 6.5 heating and cooling supply


The Energy [R]evolution scenarios lead to more electricity sector jobs In 2007, renewables met 11% of Canada’s primary energy demand
in Canada at every stage. for heat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass
(see Figure 6.6). The lack of district heating networks is a severe
• Renewable power sector jobs in the Advanced Energy [R]evolution
structural barrier to the large-scale utilization of geothermal and
scenario are estimated to reach about 67,000 by 2015—29,000
solar thermal energy. Incentives and regulatory support will be
more than in the Reference scenario. The basic scenario will lead to
required to ensure their development.
52,000 jobs in the renewable power industry by the same year.
6 Under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios, there is a dramatic growth in
• By 2030, the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has created
efficiency and renewable energy for heating and cooling in Canada,
key results |

about 72,000 jobs in the renewable power industry, 24,000 more


along with a corresponding reduction in the use of fossil fuels:
than the Reference scenario. Approximately 12,000 new power sector
jobs are created between 2015 and 2030, compared to in the • Renewable technologies provide 76% of Canada’s total heating
Reference scenario. demand by 2050 in the basic E[R] scenario, and this figure rises to 92%
in the Advanced scenario, due to a greater use of geothermal energy.
FUTURE EMPLOYMENT & HEATING AND COOLING SUPPLY

Table 6.2 shows the increase in job numbers under both Energy
[R]evolution scenarios, for each technology, up to 2030. Both scenarios • Energy efficiency measures reduce the currently growing demand for
show losses in coal generation, but these are outweighed by heating and cooling, despite the improvement of living standards.
employment growth in renewable technologies and gas. Wind shows
• In the industrial sector, solar thermal systems, sustainable
particularly strong growth in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios by
biomass/biogas, and geothermal energy are increasingly substituted for
2020, but by 2030 there is significant employment across a range of
conventional fossil-fuelled heating systems.
renewable technologies. In both Energy [R]evolution scenarios,
renewable power jobs reach over 70% of total energy sector jobs by • In the industrial sector, solar thermal systems, sustainable
2020, with a share of over 80% by 2030. biomass/biogas, and geothermal energy are increasingly substituted for
conventional fossil-fuelled heating systems.
• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional
applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions
As can be seen in Figure 6.6, the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario saves
2,094 PJ/a by 2050, or 56%, compared to the Reference scenario. The
Advanced scenario introduces renewable heating systems about five years
ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Solar collectors and geothermal
heating systems achieve economies of scale through ambitious support
programmes five to ten years earlier. This results in a renewable energy
share of 40% by 2030 and 92% by 2050.

table 6.2: employment and investment in canada to 2030, under three scenarios

REFERENCE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION


2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030
Jobs
Construction & installation 10,888 13,772 10,992 20,636 11,601 10,873 30,308 17,113 16,173
Manufacturing 4,944 3,205 3,361 3,977 4,231 4,869 9,713 5,691 6,247
Operations & maintenance 32,232 36,817 43,921 32,671 38,414 46,376 31,718 39,013 48,772
Fuel 12,925 14,174 16,977 17,911 21,762 23,981 16,400 17,290 17,885
Coal and gas export 13,467 10,365 9,591 16,573 13,999 10,095 16,004 12,047 7,887
Total Jobs 74,456 78,333 84,843 91,768 90,007 96,195 104,142 91,153 96,964

Coal 7,590 8,845 6,973 4,857 3,524 2,049 4,386 2,916 1,797
Gas, oil and diesel 21,670 19,651 20,888 32,628 31,310 29,659 30,221 26,509 23,054
Nuclear 6,519 8,041 8,929 2,123 502 0 2,123 502 0
Renewables 38,677 41,797 48,053 52,161 54,671 64,487 67,411 61,226 72,113
Total Jobs 74,456 78,333 84,843 91,768 90,007 96,195 104,142 91,153 96,964
70
image LOGS FROM CLEARCUTS IN

© JIRI REZAC / GREENPEACE


© JIRI REZAC / GREENPEACE
ALBERTA TAR SANDS.

image AERIAL VIEW OF A TAILINGS


PIPE AT THE SYNCRUDE UPGRADER
PLANT AND TAILINGS POND IN THE
BOREAL FOREST NORTH OF FORT
MCMURRAY, ALBERTA.

figure 6.6: heating and cooling supply in canada, to figure 6.7: energy for transportation in canada, to 2050,
2050, under three scenarios under three scenarios

4,000 3,000
2,750
3,500
2,500
3,000 2,250
2,500 2,000
1,750
2,000 1,500

key results |
1,500 1,250
1,000
1,000 750
500 500
250
PJ/a 0 PJ/a 0

TRANSPORT
REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]

2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

•• •••
‘EFFICIENCY’ ‘EFFICIENCY’
HYDROGEN HYDROGEN

•• GEOTHERMAL
SOLAR
••
ELECTRICITY
BIOFUELS

•• BIOMASS
FOSSIL FUELS

NATURAL GAS
OIL PRODUCTS

6.6 transport
A key target in Canada is to introduce incentives for smaller and more
efficient cars. It is also vital to achieve a shift to efficient transportation
modes such as rail, light rail, and buses—especially in the large,
expanding metropolitan areas. Together with rising prices for fossil fuels,
these changes will reduce energy demand in the transportation sector by
48% under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
Highly efficient propulsion technology for hybrid, plug-in hybrid and
battery-electric power trains will bring large efficiency gains. By
2030, electricity will provide 17% of the transport sector’s total
energy demand in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario, while in the
Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario the share will reach 24% in
2030 and 60% in 2050.

71
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

6.7 canada’s CO2 emissions figure 6.8: development of CO2 emissions in canada to
2050, by sector, under the energy [r]evolution scenarios
While Canada’s energy-related emissions of CO2 will increase by 10%
between 2007 and 2050 under the Reference scenario, under the
Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 547 million Million
tonnes in 2007 to 71 million tonnes in 2050, and to 29 million tonnes Mil t/a people

under the Advanced scenario. Annual per capita emissions will drop 700 50
from 16.6 tonnes to 1.6 tonnes in 2050 in the basic scenario, and to 600
0.7 tonnes in the Advanced scenario. Despite the phase-out of nuclear 40
6 500
energy and an increase in energy demand, CO2 emissions will decrease
key results |

30
in the electricity sector. In the long run, efficiency gains and the 400
increased use of renewable electricity will even reduce the demand for 300 20
oil and resulting CO2 emissions from the transportation sector.
200
The transportation sector, accounting for 30% of total CO2 in the 10
CO 2 EMISSIONS & PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION

100
basic Energy [R]Evolution scenario, will be the largest source of
emissions in 2050. By 2050, in the Advanced scenario, Canada’s 0 0
energy-related CO2 emissions are 94% below 1990 levels. E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]

2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050


6.8 canada’s primary energy consumption
POPULATION DEVELOPMENT
Primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is
shown in Figure 6.9. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary •• SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES
OTHER SECTORS
energy demand will be reduced by 50% in 2050 in the basic E[R]
scenario even as population increases by 35%. About 61% of the
•• INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario phases out coal and oil about
• PUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHP

10 to 15 years faster than the Energy [R]evolution scenario. This is made combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable energy share of
possible mainly by the replacement of new coal power plants with 37% in 2030 and 74% in 2050. Nuclear power is phased out in both
renewables after a 20-year lifetime rather than 40, and a faster Energy [R]evolution scenarios soon after 2040.
introduction of electric vehicles in the transportation sector to replace oil

figure 6.9: development of primary energy consumption in canada to 2050, under three scenarios

16,000

14,000

12,000

•••
‘EFFICIENCY’
10,000
OCEAN ENERGY
GEOTHERMAL
8,000

6,000
•• SOLAR
BIOMASS

4,000
•• WIND
HYDRO

2,000
•• NATURAL GAS
OIL

PJ/a 0
•• COAL
NUCLEAR

REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv REF E[R] adv
E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]

2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

72
image WIND TURBINES, ALBERTA,

© ALEX NIEDRA/DREAMSTIME
CANADA.

image WATER DAM IN


MUSKOKA, CANADA.

© PGIAM/ISTOCK
6.9 future investment plants. In regions with a good wind regime, for example, wind farms
are already competitive with coal or gas power plants.
6.9.1 investment in new power plants
It would require an investment of $343 billion for the Energy
The overall investment in new power plants up to 2050 will be between
[R]evolution scenario to become reality—about 7.5% higher than for
$317- and 399 billion. Investment in new generating capacity will be driven
the Reference scenario ($317 billion). The Advanced Energy
by the ageing of the existing fleet of power plants. Utilities must make
[R]evolution scenario would need $399 billion—about 25% more
technology choices within the next five to ten years, and these choices will
than for the Energy [R]evolution scenario.
be based on provincial and federal energy policies, including renewable
energy and CO2 reduction targets. Almost 30% of investment under the Reference scenario will go into fossil
fuels and nuclear power plants, about $88 billion. Under the Energy

key results |
Carbon-pricing schemes (either a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade
[R]evolution scenarios, however, Canada shifts more than 80% of
system) could have a major impact on whether investment goes into
investment into renewables and cogeneration, while the Advanced scenario
fossil-fuelled power plants or into renewable energy and cogeneration.
makes the shift about five to ten years earlier. By then, the fossil fuel share
Carbon pricing will also play a major role in determining whether
of power sector investment would be focused mainly on combined heat and
renewable energy becomes competitive with conventional power

FUTURE INVESTMENT
power and efficient gas-fired power plants.

figure 6.10: investment shares - reference versus energy [r]evolution scenarios

reference scenario 2007 - 2050 energy [r]evolution scenario 2007 - 2050


14% NUCLEAR POWER 14% FOSSIL

71% RENEWABLES
10% CHP
total 317 billion $ total 343 billion $
14% FOSSIL

1% CHP
76% RENEWABLES

advanced energy [r]evolution scenario 2007 - 2050


11% FOSSIL figure 6.11: change in cumulative power plant
investment in both energy [r]evolution scenarios
10% CHP 140

120

total 399 billion $ 100

80
$billion/anum

60

79% RENEWABLES 40

20

-20

-40

-60 2007-2020 2021-2030 2007-2050

• FOSSIL & NUCLEAR E[R]


• RENEWABLE E[R]

• FOSSIL & NUCLEAR ADVANCED E[R]


• RENEWABLE ADVANCED E[R]

73
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

6.9.2 fossil fuel power generation investment Small run-of-the-river hydro power plants, the modernization of existing
hydro power plants, or installing turbines in existing dams will require a
Under the Reference scenario, investment in renewable electricity
relatively large part of the renewable energy investment. Hydro power
generation will be $227 billion. This compares to $351 billion under the
plants are important because of their crucial ability to balance fluctuating
Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. How investment is divided between
wind power. Development of the wind industry will take place mainly in
the different renewable power generation technologies depends on their
coastal areas, but also in areas farther inland in Ontario, Quebec and
level of technical development and regionally available resources.
Alberta. Bioenergy power plants will be distributed across Canada’s
Technologies such as wind power, which in many regions is already cost-
farmland as there is potential almost everywhere for biomass and/or biogas
6 competitive with existing power plants, will take a larger investment volume
(cogeneration) power plants.
and a bigger market share.
future investment and employment |

The market volume attributed to different technologies also depends on


local resources and policy frameworks within Canadian provinces. Figure
6.12 provides an overview of the investment required for each technology.
For solar photovoltaic, the primary market will remain in the southern
areas close to the American border. Because solar photovoltaic energy is a
highly modular and decentralized technology that can be used almost
anywhere, its market will eventually spread across Canada.

figure 6.12: renewable energy investment costs in canada, 2007-2050

ocean energy
FUTURE INVESTMENT

geothermal

pv power plant

wind

hydro

biomass

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Billion $

74
image WIND TURBINE ON FARMLAND, CANADA.

© PGIAM/ISTOCK
6.9.3 fuel cost savings with renewable energy [R]evolution scenario and $82 billion in the Advanced scenario, for
2007–2050. This is more than enough to cover the entire investment
The total fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario are
in renewable and cogeneration capacity required for either of the
$49 billion, or $1.1 billion per year (see Table 6.3). The Advanced
Energy [R]evolution scenarios. The Advanced scenario would generate
Energy [R]evolution scenario has even higher fuel cost savings of
the highest rate-of-return on investment, especially between 2030 and
$228 billion, or $5.3 billion per year. This is because many forms of
2050, and the fuel cost savings would be 2.7 times higher than the
renewable energy have no fuel costs. So in both cases the additional
additional investment.
investment for renewable power plants is financed entirely through
fuel cost savings, which add up to $27 billion in the Energy 6

future investment and employment |


table 6.3: investment costs and fuel savings in the three scenarios

INVESTMENT COST DOLLAR 2007-2010 2007-2020 2021-2030 2007-2050 2007-2050


AVERAGE PER YEAR
WORLD (2010) DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REF
Conventional (fossil & nuclear) billion Can $ 0 -2 -20 -35 -0.8
Renewables (incl. CHP) billion Can $ 0 21 11 61 1.4
Total billion Can $ 19 -9 27 0.6
WORLD (2010) DIFFERENCE ADV E[R] VERSUS REF
Conventional (fossil & nuclear) billion Can $ -641 -11 -20 -42 -1.0
Renewables (incl. CHP) billion Can $ 0 56 34 124 2.9
Total billion Can $ 46 14 82 1.9

FUTURE INVESTMENT
CUMULATED FUEL COST SAVINGS

SAVINGS E[R] CUMULATED IN $


Fuel oil billion Can $/a 0 6 10 23 0.5
Gas billion Can $/a 8 -47 -102 -122 -2.8
Hard coal billion Can $/a 0 3 22 145 3.4
Lignite billion Can $/a 0 2 3 12 0.3
Total billion Can $/a -36 -67 49 1.1
SAVINGS ADV E[R] CUMULATED IN $
Fuel oil billion Can $/a 6 10 23 0.5
Gas billion Can $/a -39 -59 48 1.1
Hard coal billion Can $/a 6 24 144 3.3
Lignite billion Can $/a 2 3 14 0.3
Total billion Can $/a -24 -21 228 5.3

75
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

energy resources & security of supply


GLOBAL OIL COAL RENEWABLE ENERGY
GAS NUCLEAR

7
8
E
M

I
ST
M A
RE
R. KA SPRZAK/ D
AROUND 80

S. ©
%O

EL
FG

FU
LO

IL
BA

SS
EN

L
ER FO
GY E
IT
DEM F IN
A ND I S M E T B Y

“the issue of security


“quote.”
of supply is now at
WHO

the top of the energy


WHERE/WHAT

policy agenda.”
GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL
CLIMATE CAMPAIGN

76
image FIRE BOAT RESPONSE CREWS BATTLE THE
BLAZING REMNANTS OF THE OFFSHORE OIL RIG

© THE UNITED STATES


DEEPWATER HORIZON APRIL 21, 2010. MULTIPLE COAST
GUARD HELICOPTERS, PLANES AND CUTTERS
RESPONDED TO RESCUE THE DEEPWATER HORIZON’S

COAST GUARD
126 PERSON CREW.

The issue of security of supply is now at the top of the energy policy Whilst private companies are now becoming more realistic about the
agenda. Concern is focused both on price security and the security of extent of their resources, the OPEC countries hold by far the majority
physical supply. At present, around 80% of global energy demand is of the reported reserves, and their information is as unsatisfactory as
met by fossil fuels. The unrelenting increase in energy demand is ever. Their conclusions should therefore be treated with considerable
matched by the finite nature of these resources. At the same time, the caution. To fairly estimate the world’s oil resources, a regional
global distribution of oil and gas resources does not match the assessment of the mean backdated (i.e., “technical”) discoveries
distribution of demand. Some countries have to rely almost entirely on would need to be performed.
fossil fuel imports. The maps on the following pages provide an
overview of the availability of different fuels and their regional
7.1.2 non-conventional oil reserves
distribution. Information in this chapter is based partly on the report
Plugging the Gap,107 as well as information from the International A large share of the world’s remaining oil resources is classified as
Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2008 and 2009 reports. “non-conventional.” Potential fuels from sources such as oil sands,
extra-heavy oil, and oil shale are generally more costly to exploit and
7
their recovery involves enormous environmental damage. The reserves

energy sources and security of supply |


7.1 oil
of oil sands and extra-heavy oil in existence worldwide are estimated
Oil is the lifeblood of the modern global economy, as the effects of the to amount to around six trillion barrels, of which between one and
supply disruptions of the 1970s made clear. It is the number-one two trillion barrels are believed to be recoverable if the oil price is
source of energy, providing 32% of the world’s needs, and is the fuel high enough and the environmental standards low enough.
employed almost exclusively for essential uses such as transportation.
One of the worst examples of environmental degradation resulting from
However, a passionate debate has developed over the ability of supply
the exploitation of unconventional oil reserves is the oil sands that lie
to meet increasing consumption, a debate obscured by poor
beneath the Canadian province of Alberta and form the world's second-
information and stirred by recent soaring prices.
largest proven oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia. Producing crude oil from
these “tar sands”—a heavy mixture of bitumen, water, sand and clay
7.1.1 the reserves chaos found in northern Alberta beneath more than 54,000 square miles108 of
prime forest, an area the size of England and Wales combined—generates
Public data about oil and gas reserves are strikingly inconsistent, and
up to four times more carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal gas causing

OIL & GAS


potentially unreliable—for legal, commercial, historical and sometimes
global warming, than conventional drilling. Emissions from tar sands
political reasons. The most widely available and quoted figures, those from
operations are the fastest growing source of greenhouse gases in Canada.
the industry journals Oil & Gas Journal and World Oil, have limited value
The oil rush is also scarring a wilderness landscape: millions of tonnes of
as they report the reserve figures provided by companies and governments
plant life and top soil are scooped away in vast opencast mines, and
without analysis or verification. Moreover, as there is no agreed-upon
millions of litres of water diverted from rivers. Up to five barrels of water
definition of reserves or standard reporting practice, these figures usually
are needed to produce a single barrel of crude oil and the process
stand for different physical and conceptual magnitudes. Confusing
requires huge amounts of natural gas. It takes two tonnes of the raw
terminology (“proved,” “probable,” “possible,” “recoverable,”
“sands” to produce a single barrel of oil.
“reasonable certainty”) only adds to the problem. Historically, private oil
companies have consistently underestimated their reserves in order to
comply with conservative stock exchange rules, and through natural 7.2 gas
commercial caution. Whenever a discovery was made, only a portion of
Natural gas has been the fastest growing fossil energy source over the
the geologist’s estimate of recoverable resources was reported;
last two decades, boosted by its increasing share in the electricity
subsequent revisions would then increase the reserves from that same oil
generation mix. Gas is generally regarded as an abundant resource, and
field over time. National oil companies, mostly represented by the
public concerns about fuel depletion are limited to oil, even though few
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), have taken a
in-depth studies address the subject. Gas resources are more
very different approach. The OPEC companies are not subject to any sort
concentrated, and a few massive fields make up most of the reserves.
of accountability and their reporting practices are even less clear. In the
The largest gas field in the world holds 15% of the ultimate
late 1980s, the OPEC countries blatantly overstated their reserves while
recoverable resources (URR), compared to 6% for oil. Unfortunately,
competing for production quotas, which were allocated as a proportion of
information about gas resources suffers from the same bad practices as
the reserves. Although some revision was needed after the companies
oil data because gas mostly comes from the same geological
were nationalized, between 1985 and 1990, OPEC countries increased
formations, and the same stakeholders are involved.
their apparent joint reserves by 82%. Not only were these dubious
revisions never corrected, but many of these countries have reported Most reserves are initially understated and then gradually revised
untouched reserves for years, even if no sizeable discoveries were made upwards, giving an optimistic impression of growth. By contrast,
and production continued at the same pace. Additionally, the Former Russia’s reserves, the largest in the world, are considered to have
Soviet Union’s oil and gas reserves have been overestimated by about 107 GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL/RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS, PLUGGING THE
30% because the original assessments were later misinterpreted. GAP—A SURVEY OF WORLD FUEL RESOURCES AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIND ENERGY, 2006.
108 THE INDEPENDENT, 10 DECEMBER 2007

77
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

been overestimated by about 30%. Owing to geological similarities, 7.3 coal


gas follows the same depletion dynamic as oil, and thus the same
Coal was the world’s largest source of primary energy until it was
discovery and production cycles. In fact, existing data for gas are of
overtaken by oil in the 1960s. Today, coal supplies almost one quarter
worse quality than those for oil, with ambiguities arising over the
of the world’s energy. Despite being the most abundant of fossil fuels,
amount produced partly because flared and vented gas is not always
coal’s development is currently threatened by environmental concerns;
accounted for. As opposed to published reserves, the technical ones
hence its future will unfold in the context of both energy security and
have been almost constant since 1980 because discoveries have
global warming.
roughly matched production.
Coal is abundant and more equally distributed throughout the world than
oil and gas. Global recoverable reserves are the largest of all fossil fuels,
7.2.1 shale gas
and most countries have at least some. Moreover, existing and prospective
7 Natural gas production, especially in the United States, has recently big energy consumers like the US, China and India are self-sufficient in coal
involved a growing contribution from non-conventional gas supplies such and will be for the foreseeable future. Coal has been exploited on a large
energy sources and security of supply |

as shale gas. Conventional natural gas deposits have a well-defined scale for two centuries, so both the product and the available resources are
geographical area, the reservoirs are porous and permeable, the gas is well known; no substantial new deposits are expected to be discovered.
produced easily through a wellbore and does not generally require artificial Extrapolating the demand forecast forward, the world will consume 20%
stimulation. Non-conventional deposits, on the other hand, are often lower of its current reserves by 2030 and 40% by 2050. Hence, if current trends
in resource concentration, more dispersed over large areas and require are maintained, coal reserves would still last several hundred years.
well stimulation or some other extraction or conversion technology. They
are also usually more expensive to develop per unit of energy.109
7.4 nuclear
Research and investment in non-conventional gas resources has increased
Uranium, the fuel used in nuclear power plants, is a finite resource whose
significantly in recent years due to the rising price of conventional natural
economically available reserves are limited. Its distribution is almost as
gas. In some areas the technologies for economic production have already
concentrated as oil’s and does not match global consumption. Five
been developed, in others they are still at the research stage. Extracting
countries—Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Niger—control
shale gas, however, usually goes hand in hand with environmentally
three quarters of the world’s supply. As a significant user of uranium,
COAL & NUCLEAR

hazardous processes. Even so, production is expected to increase.


however, Russia's reserves will be exhausted within ten years.

table 7.1: overview of known worldwide fossil fuel reserves and resources

ENERGY CARRIER WEO 2009, WEO BROWN, 2002 IEA, 2002c IPCC, 2001a NAKICENOVIC UNDP ET AL., BGR, 1998
2008, WEO 2007 EJ EJ EJ ET AL., 2000 2000 EJ
EJ EJ EJ

Gas reserves 182 tcm 5,600 6,200 c 5,400 c 5,900 c 5,500 c 5,300
nc 8,000 nc 8,000 nc 9,400 nc 100
resources 405 tcm 9,400 11,100 c 11,700 c 11,700 c 11,100 c 7,800
nc 10,800 nc 10,800 nc 23,800 ncd 111,900
additional occurrences 921 tcm 796,000 799,700 930,000
Oil reserves 2,369 bb 5,800 5,700 c 5,900 c 6,300 c 6,000 c 6,700
nc 6,600 nc 8,100 nc 5,100 nc 5,900
resources 10,200 13,400 c 7,500 c 6,100 c 6,100 c 3,300
nc 15,500 nc 13,900 nc 15,200 nc 25,200
additional occurrences 61,000 79,500 45,000
Coal reserves 847 bill tonnes 23,600 22,500 42,000 25,400 20,700 16,300
resources 26,000 165,000 100,000 117,000 179,000 179,000
additional occurrences 921 tcm 121,000 125,600
Total resource (reserves + resources) 180,600 223,900 212,200 213,200 281,900 361,500
Total occurrence 1,204,200 1,218,000 1,256,000
note EJ = EXAJOULES; C = CONVENTIONAL RESERVES (PETROLEUM OF A CERTAIN DENSITY, FREE
NATURAL GAS, PETROLEUM GAS); NC = NON-CONVENTIONAL RESERVES (HEAVY FUEL OIL, VERY
HEAVY OILS, TAR SANDS AND OIL SHALE, GAS IN COAL SEAMS, AQUIFER GAS, NATURAL GAS IN TIGHT
FORMATIONS, GAS HYDRATES) TCM = TRILLION CUBIC METRES.
source GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE (WBGU), WORLD IN 109 INTERSTATE NATURAL GAS ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA (INGAA), “AVAILABILITY,
TRANSITION: TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS, EARTHSCAN. 2004, UPDATED ECONOMICS AND PRODUCTION POTENTIAL OF NORTH AMERICAN UNCONVENTIONAL
WITH IEA WEO 2008 AND WEO 2009 DATA. NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES”, NOVEMBER 2008

78
image PLATFORM/OIL RIG DUNLIN IN THE NORTH SEA SHOWING OIL POLLUTION.

© N. BEHRING-CHISHOLM/GP
image ON A LINFEN STREET, TWO MEN LOAD UP A CART WITH COAL THAT WILL BE
USED FOR COOKING. LINFEN, A CITY OF ABOUT 4.3 MILLION, IS ONE OF THE MOST
POLLUTED CITIES IN THE WORLD. CHINA’S INCREASINGLY POLLUTED ENVIRONMENT

© GP/LANGER
IS LARGELY A RESULT OF THE COUNTRY’S RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY
A LARGE INCREASE IN PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION, WHICH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY
PRODUCED BY BURNING COAL.

table 7.2: assumptions on fossil fuel use in the reference and energy [r]evolution scenarios

Oil 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050


Reference [PJ] 155,920 161,847 170,164 192,431 209,056 224,983
Reference [million barrels] 25,477 26,446 27,805 31,443 34,159 36,762
E[R] [PJ] 153,267 143,599 123,756 101,186 81,833
E[R] [million barrels] 25,044 23,464 20,222 16,534 13,371
Adv E[R] [PJ] 152,857 142,747 115,002 81,608 51,770
Adv E[R] [million barrels] 24,977 23,325 18,791 13,335 8,459
Gas
Reference [PJ] 104,845 112,931 121,148 141,706 155,015 166,487 7
Reference [billion cubic metres = 10E9m3] 2,759 2,972 3,188 3,729 4,079 4,381

energy sources and security of supply |


E[R] [PJ] 116,974 121,646 122,337 99,450 71,383
E[R] [billion cubic metres = 10E9m3] 3,078 3,201 3,219 2,617 1,878
Adv E[R] [PJ] 118,449 119,675 114,122 79,547 34,285
Adv E[R] [billion cubic metres = 10E9m3] 3,117 3,149 3,003 2,093 902
Coal
Reference [PJ] 135,890 162,859 162,859 204,231 217,356 225,245
Reference [million tonnes] 7,319 8,306 8,306 9,882 10,408 10,751
E[R] [PJ] 140,862 140,862 96,846 64,285 37,563
E[R] [million tonnes] 7,217 7,217 4,407 2,810 1,631
Adv E[R] [PJ] 135,005 135,005 69,871 28,652 7,501
Adv E[R] [million tonnes] 6,829 6,829 3,126 1,250 326

RENEWABLE ENERGY
note PJ/A = PETAJOULES PER ANNUM.

Secondary sources, such as old deposits, currently make up nearly Before looking at the part renewable energies can play in the range of
half of worldwide uranium reserves. These will soon be used up, scenarios in this report, however, it is worth understanding the upper
however. Mining capacities will have to be nearly doubled in the next limits of their potential. To start with, the overall technical potential of
few years to meet current needs. renewable energy—the amount that can be produced, taking into account
the primary resources, the socio-geographical constraints and the
A joint report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International
technical losses in the conversion process—is huge and several times
Atomic Energy Agency110 estimates that all existing nuclear power plants
higher than current total energy demand. Assessments of the global
will have used up their nuclear fuel, employing current technology, within
technical potential vary significantly from 2,477 exajoules per annum
less than 70 years. Given the range of scenarios for the worldwide
(EJ/a)111 up to 15,857 EJ/a.112 Based on the global primary energy
development of nuclear power, it is likely that uranium supplies will be
demand in 2007113 of 503 EJ/a, the total technical potential of renewable
exhausted sometime between 2026 and 2070. This forecast includes the
energy sources at the upper limit would exceed demand by a factor of 32.
use of mixed oxide fuel (MOX), a mixture of uranium and plutonium.
However, barriers to the growth of renewable energy technologies may
come from economical, political and infrastructural constraints. That is
7.5 renewable energy why the technical potential will never be realised in total.
Nature offers a variety of freely available options for producing Assessing long-term technical potentials is subject to various uncertainties.
energy. Their exploitation is mainly a question of how to convert The distribution of the theoretical resources, such as the global wind speed
sunlight, wind, biomass or water into electricity, heat or power as or the productivity of energy crops, is not always well analyzed. The
efficiently, sustainably and cost-effectively as possible. geographical availability is subject to variations such as land-use change,
On average, the energy in the sunshine that reaches the earth is about one future planning decisions on where certain technologies are allowed, and
kilowatt per square metre, worldwide. According to the Research Association accessibility of resources, for example underground geothermal energy.
for Solar Power, power is gushing from renewable energy sources at a rate of Technical performance may take longer to achieve than expected. There
2,850 times more energy than is needed in the world. In one day, the sunlight are also uncertainties in terms of the consistency of the data provided in
which reaches the earth produces enough energy to satisfy the world’s studies, and underlying assumptions are often not explained in detail.
current power requirements for eight years. Even though only a percentage 110 OECD NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY, AND IAEA, URANIUM 2003: RESOURCES,
PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, 2003.
of that potential is technically accessible, this is still enough to provide just 111 NITSCH 2004.
under six times more power than the world currently requires. 112 UBA 2009.
113 IEA, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2009, 2009.
79
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 7.1: oil reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

7
energy resources & security of supply |
OIL

OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA

REF E[R] REF E[R]


TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB %

2007 69.3 5.6% 69.3 5.6% 2007 111.2 9.0% 111.2 9.0%

NON RENEWABLE RESOURCE MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ

2007 7,429H 45,466H 7,429H 45,466H 2007 1,691 10,349 1,691 10,349

OIL
2050 6,594H 40,352H 1,225 7,494 2050 2,597 15,895 292 1,788
L L L L

2007 2,707H 2,707H 2007 598 598


2050 1,816H 337 2050 653 73

LEGEND 140
$ PER BARREL

COST
130
crude oil prices 1988 -
120 2007 and future predictions E[R]
>60 50-60 40-50 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO comparing the REF and REF
110 advanced E[R] scenarios
1 barrel = 159 litres
30-40 20-30 10-20 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 100 SOURCES REF: INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY/E[R]: DEVELOPMENTS
APPLIED IN THE GES-PROJECT
90
5-10 0-5 % RESOURCES
GLOBALLY
0 1000 KM 80

70

60

50
RESERVES TOTAL THOUSAND MILLION BARRELS [TMB] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2007] 40

CONSUMPTION PER REGION MILLION BARRELS [MB] | PETA JOULE [PJ] 30

20
CONSUMPTION PER PERSON LITERS [L]
10

0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

YEARS 1988 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE

80
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB %

2007 16.9 1.4%M 16.9 1.4%M 2007 755.3H 61.0%H 755.3H 61.0%H 2007 15.5 1.3% 15.5 1.3% 2007 87.6 10.1%L 87.6 10.1%L

MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ

2007 4,337 26,541 4,337 4,418 2007 1,913 11,709 1,913 11,709 2007 2,445 14,966 2,445 14,966 2007 1,605 9,826 1,605 9,826
2050 3,590M 21,970M 722M 9,361M 2050 3,574 21,871 569 3,482 2050 7,946 48,629 1,881H 11,513H 2050 1,953L 11,955L 441L 2,701L
L L L L L L L L

2007 1,285 1,285 2007 1,617 1,617 2007 294 294 2007 748M 748M
2050 1,013M 204 2050 1,638 261 2050 891 211M 2050 1,057 239

GLOBAL

REF E[R]
TMB % TMB % 7
2007 1,199 100% 1,199 100%

energy resources & security of supply |


MB PJ MB PJ

2007 25,477 155,919 25,477 155,919


2050 36,762 224,981 8,459 51,770
L L

2007 623 623


2050 637 147

OIL
AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA OECD PACIFIC

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB % TMB %

2007 117.5M 9.5% 117.5M 9.5% 2007 5.5 0.5% 5.5 0.5% 2007 14.8 1.2% 14.8 1.2% 2007 5.1L 0.4% 5.1L 0.4%

MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ MB PJ

2007 924 5,654 924 5,654 2007 1,011L 6,187L 1,011 6,187 2007 1,656 10,136 1,656 10,136 2007 2,465M 15,089M 2,465 15,086
2050 1,667 10,202 689 4,214 2050 3,669 22,455 1,169 7,152 2050 3,448 21,099 1,014 6,204 2050 1,724 10,552 458 2,805
L L L L L L L L

2007 159 159 2007 142L 142L 2007 270 270 2007 1,958 1,958

DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.


2050 133L 55L 2050 352 112 2050 365 107 2050 1,539 409H

CO2 EMISSIONS RESERVES AND CONSUMPTION REF global consumption


FROM OIL oil reserves versus global demand, production ADV E[R] global consumption

comparison between and consumption. global consumption comparison


the REF and advanced between the REF and advanced E[R] scenarios.
E[R] scenarios 2007 -
2050 billion tonnes million barrels. 1 barrel = 159 litres

SOURCE GPI/EREC SOURCE BP 2008

1,358
BILLION
BARRELS
25 50,000
BILLION TONNES

MILLION BARRELS

USED SINCE
1,199 2007

20 REF 40,000 BILLION


BARRELS REF
PROVEN
2007

15 30,000
811
10 20,000 E[R] BILLION
BARRELS
USED SINCE
E[R] 2007

5 10,000

0 0
2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 1972 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE

81
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 7.2: gas reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

7
energy resources & security of supply |
GAS

OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA

REF E[R] REF E[R]


tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 %

2007 8.0 4.4% 8.0 4.4% 2007 7.7 4.3% 7.7 4.3%

NON RENEWABLE RESOURCE bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ

2007 722H 27,435H 722H 27,435H 2007 117 4,465 117 4,465

GAS
2050 767H 29,144H 71H 2,688H 2050 246M 9,358M 34 1,303
m3 m3 m3 m3

2007 1,608 1,608 2007 254 254


2050 1,328 123 2050 410 57

LEGEND 24
$ PER MILLION Btu

23 COST
22
gas prices of LNG/
21
natural gas 1984 - 2007 E[R]
>50 40-50 30-40 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO 20 and future predictions
19 comparing the REF
18 and adv. E[R] scenarios.
20-30 10-20 5-10 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 17
SOURCE JAPAN CIF/EUROPEAN
UNION CIF/IEA 2007 - US IMPORTS/
IEA 2007 - EUROPEAN IMPORTS
16
0-5 % RESOURCES 15 REF
GLOBALLY 14
0 1000 KM
13
12
11
10
9
8
RESERVES TOTAL TRILLION CUBIC METRES [tn m3] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2007] 7
6
CONSUMPTION PER REGION BILLION CUBIC METRES [bn m3] | PETA JOULE [PJ] 5 LNG
4
3
CONSUMPTION PER PERSON CUBIC METRES [m ] 3

2 NATURAL GAS
1
0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

YEARS 1984 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE

82
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 %

2007 9.8 5.4% 9.8 5.4% 2007 73.2H 40.4%H 73.2H 40.4%H 2007 1.9 1.0% 1.9 1.0% 2007 53.3 29.4% 53.3 29.4%

bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ

2007 504 19,170 504 19,170 2007 238M 9,056M 239 9,056 2007 71 2,716 71 2,716 2007 638 24,225 638 24,225
2050 644 24,469 69 2,613 2050 685 26,034 74 2,805 2050 341 12,953 212 8,061 2050 776 29,478 138 5,248
m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3

2007 934 934 2007 1,178 1,178 2007 54 54 2007 1,874H 1,874H
2050 1,120M 120 2050 1,939 209M 2050 239 149 2050 2,496H 444H

GLOBAL

REF E[R]
tn m3 % tn m3 % 7
2007 181 100% 181 100%

energy resources & security of supply |


bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ

2007 2,759 104,846 2,759 104,846


2050 4,381 166,489 902 34,285
m3 m3

2007 424 424


2050 478 99

GAS
AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA OECD PACIFIC

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 % tn m3 %

2007 14.6M 8.0%M 14.6M 8.0%M 2007 1.1L 0.6%L 1.1L 0.6%L 2007 8.6 4.8% 8.6 4.8% 2007 2.9 1.6% 2.9 1.6%

bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ bn m3 PJ

2007 91 3,472 91 3,472 2007 37L 1,397L 37L 1,397L 2007 184 6,998 184 6,998 2007 156 5,912 156 5,912
2050 167 6,338 65 2,456 2050 164L 6,227L 107M 4,075M 2050 422 16,020 115 4,368 2050 170 6,467 18L 667L
m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3 m3

2007 95 95 2007 32L 32L 2007 182 182 2007 776M 776M

DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.


2050 83 32L 2050 102L 66 2050 278 76 2050 946 98

CO2 EMISSIONS RESERVES AND CONSUMPTION REF global consumption


FROM GAS gas reserves versus global demand, production ADV E[R] global consumption

comparison between and consumption. global consumption comparison


the REF and adv. E[R] between the REF and advanced E[R] scenarios.
scenarios 2007 - 2050
billion cubic metres
billion tonnes
SOURCE GPI/EREC SOURCE 1970-2008 BP, 2007-2050 GPI/EREC

158
TRILLION
CUBIC
25 5,000
BILLION TONNES

BILLION m3

METRES
181 USED SINCE
2007

20 4,000 TRILLION REF


CUBIC METRES
PROVEN 2007

15 3,000
E[R]
112
10 REF 2,000 TRILLION
CUBIC
METRES
USED SINCE
5 E[R] 1,000 2007

0 0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050
2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 1972 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE

83
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 7.3: coal reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

7
energy resources & security of supply |
COAL

OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA

REF E[R] REF E[R]


mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t %

2007 250,510 29.6% 250,510 29.6% 2007 16,276 1.9% 16,276 1.9%

NON RENEWABLE RESOURCE mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ

2007 1,882 24,923 1,882 24,923 2007 45 891 45 891

COAL
2050 1,351 27,255 6 134 2050 165 3,122 11 247
t t t t

2007 2.4 2.4 2007 0.1 0.1


2050 2.0 0.0 2050 0.2 0.0

LEGEND 175 E[R]


$ PER TONNE

COST
150
coal prices 1988 - 2007
125 and future predictions for
>60 50-60 40-50 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO the adv. E[R] scenario.
100
$ per tonne REF
30-40 20-30 10-20 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO SOURCE MCCLOSKEY COAL
INFORMATION SERVICE - EUROPE.
90 PLATTS - US.

5-10 0-5 % RESOURCES 80


GLOBALLY
0 1000 KM
70

60
JAPAN STEAM COAL
50

RESERVES TOTAL MILLION TONNES [mn t] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2007] 40
NW EUROPE

30
CONSUMPTION PER REGION MILLION TONNES [mn t] | PETA JOULE [PJ]
US CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
20
CONSUMPTION PER PERSON TONNES [t]
10

0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

YEARS 1988 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE

84
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t %

2007 50,063 5.9% 50,063 5.9% 2007 1,386 0.2%L 1,386 0.2%L 2007 114,500 13.5% 114,500 13.5% 2007 222,183 26% 222,183 26%

mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ

2007 897 14,371 897 14,371 2007 19L 437L 19 437 2007 2,403H 55,333H 2,403 55,333 2007 532 9,003 532 9,003
2050 710 11,899 10 231 2050 91L 2,092L 1L 13 2050 4,148H 95,527H 218H 5,027H 2050 904 13,665 14 327
t t t t t t t t

2007 1.2 1.2 2007 0.0L 0.0 2007 1.8 1.8 2007 1.1 1.1
2050 0.9 0.0 2050 0.2L 0.0 2050 2.9H 0.2H 2050 1.9M 0.0

GLOBAL

REF E[R]
mn t % mn t % 7
2007 846,496 100% 846,496 100%

energy resources & security of supply |


mn t PJ mn t PJ

2007 7,319 135,890 7,319 135,890


2050 10,751 225,244 326 7,501
t t

2007 0.9 0.9


2050 1.1 0.0

COAL
AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA OECD PACIFIC

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t % mn t %

2007 49,605 5.9% 49,605 5.9% 2007 56,498 6.7%M 56,498 6.7%M 2007 7,814 0.9% 7,814 0.9% 2007 77,661 9% 77,661 9%

mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ mn t PJ

2007 188 4,330 188 4,330 2007 459 10,126 459 10,126 2007 330 5,824 330 5,824 2007 565 10,652 565 10,652
2050 303 6,977 19 427 2050 1,692 36,709 37 851 2050 868M 17,902 9 217 2050 518 10,097 1L 27
t t t t t t t t

2007 0.2 0.2 2007 0.4 0.4 2007 0.3 0.3 2007 2.3 2.3

DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.


2050 0.2 0.0 2050 1.0 0.0 2050 0.5 0.0 2050 2.4 0.0

13,000
CO2 EMISSIONS RESERVES AND CONSUMPTION REF global consumption
FROM COAL 12,000
coal reserves versus global demand, production ADV E[R] global consumption

comparison between and consumption. global consumption comparison


11,000
the REF and adv. E[R] between the REF and adv. E[R] scenarios.
scenarios 2007 - 2050 10,000 million tonnes 846 360
billion tonnes BILLION
REF BILLION
SOURCE GPI/EREC 9,000 SOURCE 1970-2050 GPI/EREC, 1970-2008 BP. TONNES TONNES
PROVEN USED SINCE
2007 2007
MILLION TONNES

8,000

7,000

25 REF 6,000
BILLION TONNES

5,000
20
4,000 E[R]
15
159
3,000
BILLION
10 TONNES
2,000 USED SINCE
2007

5 E[R]
1,000

0 0
2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 1970 - 2007 PAST YEARS 2007 - 2050 FUTURE

85
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 7.4: nuclear reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

7
energy resources & security of supply |

OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA


NUCLEAR

REF E[R] REF E[R]


t % t % t % t %

2007 680,109 21.5% 680,109 21.5% 2007 95,045 3% 95,045 3%

TWh TWh TWh TWh

2007 941H NUCLEAR POWER 2007 20


PHASED OUT PHASED OUT

NON RENEWABLE RESOURCE 2050 1,259H


PJ
BY 2040

PJ
2050 60
PJ
BY 2030

PJ

2007 10,260H 10,260H 2007 214 214

NUCLEAR
2050 13,735H 0 2050 655 0
kWh kWh kWh kWh

2007 2,094H 2,094H 2007 42 42


2050 2,181 0 2050 100 0

LEGEND 110
$US/LBS

100

>30 20-30 10-20 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO 90

5-10 0-5 % RESOURCES


GLOBALLY
E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 80

70

0 1000 KM
60

50
RESERVES TOTAL TONNES | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2007]
40

GENERATION PER REGION TERAWATT HOURS [TWh]


30

CONSUMPTION PER REGION PETA JOULE [PJ]


20

CONSUMPTION PER PERSON KILOWATT HOURS [kWh] 10

H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST 0


1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

86
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


t % t % t % t % t % t % t % t %

2007 56,445 1.8% 56,445 1.8% 2007 370L 0%L 370L 0%L 2007 35,060 1.1% 35,060 1.1% 2007 1,043,687H 32.9%H 1,043,687H 32.9%H

TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh

2007 925 2007 0L NO NUCLEAR 2007 62 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 293M NUCLEAR POWER
PHASED OUT ENERGY PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
2050 635M BY 2030 2050 14L DEVELOPMENT 2050 817 BY 2045 2050 463 BY 2045
PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ

2007 10,096 10,096 2007 0L 0L 2007 678 678 2007 3,197M 3,197M
2050 6,927M 0 2050 153L 0 2050 8,913 0 2050 5,051 0
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh

2007 1,714 1,714 2007 0L 0L 2007 47 47 2007 861M 861M


2050 1,105M 0 2050 40 0 2050 573 0 2050 1,490 0

GLOBAL

REF E[R]
t % t % 7
2007 3,169,238 100% 3,169,238 100%

energy resources & security of supply |


TWh TWh

2007 2,719 NUCLEAR POWER


PHASED OUT
2050 4,413 BY 2045

PJ PJ

2007 29,664 29,664


2050 48,142 0
kWh kWh

2007 418 418


2050 481 0

AFRICA INDIA DEVELOPING ASIA 0ECD PACIFIC

NUCLEAR
REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]
t % t % t % t % t % t % t % t %

2007 470,312M 14.8%M 470,312M 14.8%M 2007 40,980 1.3% 40,980 1.3% 2007 5,630 0.2% 5,630 0.2% 2007 741,600 23.4% 741,600 23.4%

TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh TWh

2007 11 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 17 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 44 NUCLEAR POWER 2007 407 NUCLEAR POWER
PHASED OUT PHASED OUT PHASED OUT PHASED OUT
2050 45 BY 2025 2050 172 BY 2045 2050 80 BY 2045 2050 868 BY 2045

PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ PJ

2007 123 123 2007 183 183 2007 476 476 2007 4,437 4,437
2050 491 0 2050 1,876 0 2050 873 0 2050 9,469 0
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh

2007 12 12 2007 17 17 2007 43 43 2007 2,030 2,030

DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.


2050 23L 0 2050 172 0 2050 53 0 2050 4,827H 0

REF global generation (TWh)


COST REACTORS PRODUCTION
REF global capacity (GW)
yellow cake prices 1987 - age and number nuclear generation versus ADV E[R] global generation (TWh)
2008 and future predictions of reactors worldwide installed capacity.
ADV E[R] global capacity (GW)
comparing the REF and comparison between the
adv. E[R] scenarios REF and adv. E[R] scenrios.
tonnes TWh and GW
SOURCES REF: INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY/E[R]: DEVELOPMENTS SOURCES
APPLIED IN THE GES-PROJECT SOURCES IAEA GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL

35
NO. OF REACTORS

4,500
TWh

E[R] REF
30 4,000
GW

3,500
25 TWh
3,000 600
20
2,500 TWh 500
GW
15 2,000 400

1,500 300
10
1,000 200
5 GW
500 100

0 0 0
2007

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

YEARS 1970 - 2008 PAST YEARS 2008 - 2050 FUTURE AGE OF REACTORS IN YEARS YEARS 2007 - 2050

87
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

The meta-study by the DLR (German aerospace agency), Wuppertal definition of types of energy resource potential115
Institute and Ecofys, commissioned by the German Federal Environment
theoretical potential The theoretical potential identifies the physical
Agency, provides a comprehensive overview of the technical renewable
upper limit of the energy available from a certain source. For solar
energy potential by technologies and world region.114 This survey analyzed
energy, for example, this would be the total solar radiation falling on
ten major studies of global and regional potentials by organizations such
a particular surface.
as the United Nations Development Programme and a range of academic
institutions. Each of the major renewable energy sources was assessed, conversion potential This is derived from the annual efficiency of the
with special attention paid to the effect of environmental constraints on respective conversion technology. It is therefore not a strictly defined
their overall potential. The study provides data for the years 2020, 2030 value, since the efficiency of a particular technology depends on
and 2050 (see Table 7.3). technological progress.
The complexity of calculating renewable energy potentials is particularly technical potential This takes into account additional restrictions
7 great because these technologies are comparatively young and their regarding the area that is realistically available for energy generation.
exploitation involves changes to the way in which energy is both Technological, structural and ecological restrictions, as well as
energy sources and security of supply |

generated and distributed. Whilst a calculation of the theoretical and legislative requirements, are accounted for.
geographical potentials has only a few dynamic parameters, the
economic potential The proportion of the technical potential that
technical potential is dependent on a number of uncertainties.
can be utilised economically. For biomass, for example, those
A technology breakthrough, for example, could have a dramatic impact, quantities are included that can be exploited economically in
changing the technical potential assessment within a very short time competition with other products and land uses.
frame. Considering the huge dynamic of technology development, many
sustainable potential This limits the potential of an energy source
existing studies are based on out-of-date information. The estimates in
based on evaluation of ecological and socio-economic factors.
the DLR study could therefore be updated using more recent data; for
example, significantly increased average wind turbine capacity and
output, which would increase the technical potentials still further.
Given the large unexploited resources which exist, even without figure 7.1: energy resources of the world
having reached the full development limits of the various technologies,
RENEWABLE ENERGY

it can be concluded that the technical potential is not a limiting


factor to expansion of renewable energy generation.
SOLAR ENERGY
It will not be necessary to exploit the entire technical potential, 2850 TIMES

however, nor would this be unproblematic. Implementation of


renewable energies has to respect sustainability criteria in order to
achieve a sound future energy supply. Public acceptance is crucial,
especially bearing in mind that the decentralized character of many
WIND ENERGY
renewable energy technologies means their operations will move 200 TIMES
closer to consumers. Without public acceptance, market expansion
will be difficult or even impossible. The use of biomass, for example, BIOMASS
has become controversial in recent years as it is seen as competing 20 TIMES

with other land uses, food production or nature conservation.


Sustainability criteria will have a huge influence on whether bio- GEOTHERMAL
HYDROPOWER ENERGY 5 TIMES
energy in particular can play a central role in future energy supply. ENERGY 1 TIMES

As important as the technical potential of worldwide renewable energy RESOURCES WAVE-TIDAL


ENERGY 2 TIMES
sources is their market potential. The term “potential” is often used in OF THE WORLD
different ways. The general understanding is that market potential POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE
means the total amount of renewable energy that can be implemented ENERGY SOURCES ALL RENEWABLE
ENERGY SOURCES PROVIDE 3078
TIMES THE CURRENT GLOBAL
in the market taking into account the demand for energy, competing ENERGY NEEDS
technologies, any subsidies available as well as the current and future
costs of renewable energy sources. The market potential may therefore source WBGU
in theory be larger than the economic potential. To be realistic, however,
market potential analyses have to take into account the behaviour of
private economic agents under specific prevailing conditions, which are
of course partly shaped by public authorities. The energy policy 114 DLR, WUPPERTAL INSTITUTE, ECOFYS, ROLE AND POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE
framework in a particular country or region will have a profound ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOR GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY, COMMISSIONED BY
GERMAN FEDERAL ENVIRONMENT AGENCY, FKZ 3707 41 108, MARCH 2009.
impact on the expansion of renewable energies. 115 WBGU (GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE).

88
image SOLON AG PHOTOVOLTAICS FACILITY IN ARNSTEIN OPERATING 1,500
HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL SOLAR “MOVERS”. LARGEST TRACKING SOLAR FACILITY

© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP

© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
IN THE WORLD. EACH “MOVER” CAN BE BOUGHT AS A PRIVATE INVESTMENT FROM
THE S.A.G. SOLARSTROM AG, BAYERN, GERMANY.

image WIND ENERGY PARK NEAR DAHME. WIND TURBINE IN THE SNOW OPERATED BY VESTAS.

table 7.3: technical potential by renewable energy technology for 2020, 2030 and 2050
TECHNICAL POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY TECHNICAL POTENTIAL TECHNICAL
EJ/YEAR ELECTRIC POWER HEAT EJ/A POTENTIAL PRIMARY
ENERGY EJ/A
SOLAR SOLAR HYDRO WIND WIND OCEAN GEO- GEO- SOLAR BIOMASS BIOMASS TOTAL
CSP PV POWER ON- OFF- ENERGY THERMAL THERMAL WATER RESIDUES ENERGY
SHORE SHORE ELECTRIC DIRECT USES HEATING CROPS

World 2020 1,125.9 5,156.1 47.5 368.6 25.6 66.2 4.5 498.5 113.1 58.6 43.4 7,505
World 2030 1,351.0 6,187.3 48.5 361.7 35.9 165.6 13.4 1,486.6 117.3 68.3 61.1 9,897
World 2050 1,688.8 8,043.5 50.0 378.9 57.4 331.2 44.8 4,955.2 123.4 87.6 96.5 15,857
World energy demand 2007: 502.9 EJ/aa
Technical potential in 2050 versus 3.4 16.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.1 9.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 32 7
world primary energy demand 2007.

energy sources and security of supply |


source DLR, WUPPERTAL INSTITUTE, ECOFYS; ROLE AND POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOR GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY; COMMISSIONED BY THE
GERMAN FEDERAL ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FKZ 3707 41 108, MARCH 2009; POTENTIAL VERSUS ENERGY DEMAND: S. TESKE a IEA 2009

7.5.1 the global potential for sustainable biomass 3.Biomass from natural ecosystems should be sourced in an
environmentally responsible and socially just manner, such as through
Bioenergy’s role in the energy revolution must be limited to biomass that certification by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). Additional
is sustainably produced and which results in significant reductions in criteria for the use of wood and wood residues from forests must be
greenhouse gas emissions. applied. Grass from grasslands must also be harvested sustainably.
Various studies have looked historically at the potential for bioenergy and 4. Social conflicts should be avoided and food security, livelihoods and land
come up with widely differing results. As part of background research for rights should not be undermined. Production and use of bioenergy should
the Energy [R]evolution scenario, Greenpeace commissioned the German not widen social inequalities, especially between developing and developed
Biomass Research Centre (the former Institute for Energy and countries. Local needs should take priority over global trade and
Environment) to investigate the worldwide potential for energy crops, up to production. In addition, international trade in biomass or biofuels must not
2050. In addition, information has been compiled from scientific studies of result in negative social impacts, nor undermine food security. Land use

RENEWABLE ENERGY
the global potential and from data derived from state-of-the-art remote conflicts should be avoided and indigenous peoples and local communities
have the right to free and prior informed consent for the use of their land.
sensing techniques, such as satellite images. A summary of these findings
can be found in the 2010 global Energy [R]evolution report.116 5.Bioenergy projects must involve no deliberate release of genetically
engineered (GE) organisms to the environment. Any bioenergy crops,
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios adopt a conservative approach, and including trees, must not be genetically engineered.
assume roughly 88 EJ of global primary energy coming from biomass in
2050. The bulk of this (75 EJ per year) is crop harvest residues (e.g., straw, 6.Bioenergy crops and plantations should reflect the promotion of
biodiversity, which means that the projects must not concentrate on
stalk and leaves) and crop process residues (e.g., oilcakes, hulls and shells),
monoculture plant and tree plantations.
while assuming that most (75%) of the crop harvest residues and total crop
biomass will remain in the field for carbon and nutrient recycling purposes. 7.Sustainable agricultural practices are applied that do not pollute the
About 8–9 EJ per year will come from wood-processing residues (e.g., from biosphere through accumulation of agrochemicals like synthetic
sawmills) and discarded wood products. This equals 0.7–0.8 billion cubic fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides in the soil, water or air. The use of
metres (m3) of wood residues per year, or less than half of today´s annual these agrochemicals is minimized, which means that they are only used
when there is no biological or organic alternative and only in the most
consumption of fuelwood. The remaining 4–5 EJ per year will come from
efficient and most non-polluting way.
dedicated bioenergy crops, which would require less than 1% of today´s
global cropland and probably less than today’s already existing bioenergy 8.Plantations should promote conservation of water and soil fertility.
croplands. Pressure to expand croplands can also be eased through a shift The production of bioenergy crops should maintain soil fertility,
to a less meat-intensive diet, particularly in the developed world. avoid soil erosion, promote conservation of water resources, and
have minimal impacts on water availability and quality, and nutrient
All biomass must meet the following sustainability criteria: and mineral balances.
1.Any bioenergy project should have a positive GHG balance of at least 9.The expansion and development of new bioenergy crops should not
60%. The calculation of the GHG balance must be made over the whole introduce any invasive species. Where there is doubt, the
production chain. This automatically favours the most efficient biomass precautionary principle should be applied.
application, such as electricity and heat production as opposed to
transport. The GHG balance must also include the greenhouse gas If there are insufficient quantities of available biomass that meet these
emissions from indirect conversion of natural ecosystems. criteria, then the remaining biomass component in the Energy
[R]evolution scenarios would be replaced with other forms of renewable
2.Crops and plantations for bioenergy must not cause direct or energy or enhanced conservation measures.
indirect destruction or conversion of natural forests or other
natural or valuable ecosystems. Natural forests are not only 116 EREC, AND GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE
WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, 2010.
important carbon stores, but have high biodiversity value as well.
89
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 7.5: solar reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

63,658 KM2
7
energy resources & security of supply |

NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

13,675 KM2
SOLAR

OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA

REF E[R] REF E[R]


RENEWABLE RESOURCE % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ

2007 0.06M 64H 2007 0.03 6

SOLAR
2050 1.04M 1,343 25M 17,683 2050 0.52 214 14L 3,799L
kWh kWh kWh kWh

2007 40 2007 4
2050 646 8,508 2050 99 1,758

LEGEND pv
COST concentrating solar power plants (CSP)
16,000 PRODUCTION 36.11%
comparison between 15,000 comparison between
renewable and non coal the REF and adv. E[R]
renewable energies 14,000 scenarios 2007 - 2050
2600- 2400- 2200- REF REFERENCE SCENARIO 2007 - 2050 gas power plant [electricity]
2800 2600 2400 13,000
cents/kWh 12,000 TWh/a
2000- 1800- 1600- E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY 11,000
2200 2000 1800 [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO SOURCE EPIA SOURCE GPI/EREC
10,000
0.70 27.28%
TWh/a

1400- 1200- 1000- 9,000


1600 1400 1200 0.65
0 1000 KM 8,000
0.60
800- 600- 400- 0.55 6,000
USD CENTS/kWh

1000 800 600 15.17%


0.50 5,000
ADV E[R] pv/concentrating solar power plants (C
0.45 4,000
200- 0- RADIATION IN kW/h
400 200 PER SQUARE METER 0.40 REF pv/concentrating solar power plants (CSP
3,000
SOURCE DLR
0.35 % total solar share
2,000
0.30
1,000
0.25 4.95% 1.92%
PRODUCTION PER REGION % OF GLOBAL SHARE | PETA JOULE [PJ] 800
0.20
600 1.59%
0.15
PRODUCTION PER PERSON KILOWATT HOUR [kWh] 0.10 400 0.87%
1.17%
200 0.03% 0.28%
0.05 0.03% 0.53%
0 0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
2007

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 2007 - 2050

90
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


% PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ

2007 0.09M 70 2007 0.17H 36 2007 0.22L 182L 2007 0.01L 2


2050 1.42H 1,173 23 10,680 2050 0.62 319 53H 14,696 2050 0.95 1,754H 20 21,628H 2050 0.10L 63L 8,34 2,894
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh

2007 36M 2007 50H 2007 38 2007 2


2050 567 5,160M 2050 251 11,552H 2050 342M 4,213 2050 56 2,586

NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

10,419 KM2

NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

38,447 KM 2
77,859 KM2 GLOBAL

REF E[R]
NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION
% PJ % PJ 7
2007 0.10 402
52,907 KM 2

energy resources & security of supply |


2050 1.03 6,322 23.26 108,367
NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION kWh kWh
47,743 KM 2
2007 17
NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO 2050 192 2,468
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

35,764 KM2

SOLAR AREA
NEEDED TO SUPPORT
NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION
ADV E[R] 2050 SCENARIO
32,392 KM2
390,122 KM2

NEEDED SOLAR AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

17,257 KM2

SOLAR
AFRICA INDIA OTHER ASIA OECD PACIFIC

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


% PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ

2007 0.00 1 2007 0.02L 6L 2007 0.01L 4L 2007 0.08 30M


2050 0.94 405 28 9,934 2050 0.23 182 24 13,262M 2050 0.58 405 22 8,998 2050 1.14 466M 23 4,794
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh

2007 0.2 2007 1 2007 1L 2007 42


2050 56L 1,380 2050 31 2,282 2050 74 1,649L 2050 719H 7,405

DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.


6,000
55,000 275,000 ADV E[R] solar
CAPACITY PRODUCTION 33.58% PRODUCTION
5,500 80% ADV E[R] renewables
comparison between comparison between comparison between
50,000 250,000
the REF and adv. E[R] the REF and adv. E[R] the REF and adv. E[R] REF solar
5,000 scenarios 2007 - 2050 scenarios 2007 - 2050 scenarios 2007 - 2050
[electricity] [heat supply] [primary energy] REF renewables
45,000 225,000
% total solar share
4,500 GW PJ PJ 60%
40,000 200,000
4,000 SOURCE GPI/EREC SOURCE GPI/EREC SOURCE GPI/EREC

35,000 22.54% 175,000


PJ
GW

PJ

3,500
39%
30,000 150,000
3,000
ADV E[R]
25,000 125,000 15%
(CSP) 2,500
23%
P) 20,000 12.17% 100,000 15%
2,000 14% 23.3%
16%
14%
15,000 ADV E[R] solar collectors 75,000
1,500
REF solar collectors 14% 15%
13%
1,000 10,000 % total solar share 50,000 13%

4.48%
1.63% 2.2% 7.2%
REF 5,000 25,000
500 0.27% 1.25% 1.51%
0.6%
0.27% 0.94% 0.1% 1%
0.35% 0.54% 0.1% 0.2%
0.3% 0.6% 0.5%

0 0 0
91
2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2007

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 2007 - 2050


WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 8.6: wind reference scenario and the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario
WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

NEEDED WIND AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

159,459 KM2

7
energy resources & security of supply |

NEEDED WIND AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

60,791 KM2
WIND

OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA

REF E[R] REF E[R]


RENEWABLE RESOURCE % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ

2007 0.12M 136 2007 0.02 3

WIND
2050 1.71 2,210 11.11 7,805H 2050 0.65 266 10.54 2,878
kWh kWh kWh kWh

2007 84 2007 2
2050 1,064 3,755 2050 123 1,332

LEGEND wind 11,000


COST
comparison between coal
10,000
renewable and non gas power plant
renewable energies
>11 10-11 9-10 REF REFERENCE SCENARIO 2007 - 2050 9,000

cents/kWh
8-9 7-8 6-7 E[R] ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO 8,000
SOURCE GWEC

7,000
5-6 4-5 3-4
TWh/a

0 1000 KM
0.12 6,000
1-2 0-1 AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN
0.11
METRES PER SECOND
SOURCE DLR 0.10 5,000
0.09
0.08 4,000
0.07
11.07%
0.06 3,000
0.05
PRODUCTION PER REGION % OF GLOBAL SHARE | PETA JOULE [PJ]
USD CENTS/kWh

0.04 2,000
4.87%
0.03
PRODUCTION PER PERSON KILOWATT HOUR [kWh] 0.02 1,000 3.70 %
0.88%
0.01 0.88%
2.78%
0 0
H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST
2007

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2007

2010

2020

2030

YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 2

92
OECD EUROPE MIDDLE EAST CHINA TRANSITION ECONOMIES
REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]
% PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ
% PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ
2007 0.49H 379H 2007 0.00L 1L 2007 0.04 32 2007 0.00 1
2050 4.14H 3,420H 10.41 4,867 2050 0.26L 133L 4.78 1,314 2050 0.66 1,220M 6.85M 7,340 2050 0.56 360 9.83 3,413
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh
2007 195H 2007 1 2007 7 2007 1
2050 1,652H 2,352M 2050 105 1,033 2050 238 1,430 2050 322M 3,050

NEEDED WIND AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

64,644 KM2

NEEDED WIND AREA TO NEEDED WIND AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

96,571 KM 2
140,621 KM2
GLOBAL

REF E[R]
NEEDED WIND AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION
% PJ % PJ 7
2007 0.13 624
NEEDED WIND AREA TO
27,757 KM 2

energy resources & security of supply |


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION 2050 1.16 9,058 8.38 39,029
69,214 KM2 kWh kWh

2007 26
NEEDED WIND AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION 2050 275 1,182
17,029 KM2

WIND AREA
NEEDED TO SUPPORT
NEEDED WIND AREA TO
SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION ADV E[R] 2050 SCENARIO
58,118 KM2
750,859 KM2

NEEDED WIND AREA TO


SUPPORT ENTIRE REGION

56,656 KM2

WIND
AFRICA INDIA ASIA OECD PACIFIC

REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R]


% PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ % PJ

2007 0.02 4 2007 0.17 42M 2007 0.01 2L 2007 0.06 24


2050 0.47 202 3.00L 1,073L 2050 0.48 374 6.38 3,488 2050 0.69 475 8.75 3,557 2050 0.97M 396 15.47H 3,294M
kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh kWh

2007 1 2007 10 2007 0L 2007 33M

DESIGN WWW.ONEHEMISPHERE.SE CONCEPT SVEN TESKE/GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL.


2050 28L 149L 2050 64 600 2050 87 652 2050 611 5,089H

4,000 ADV E[R] wind 275,000 ADV E[R] wind


28.65% PRODUCTION CAPACITY PRODUCTION ADV E[R] renewables
comparison between comparison between REF wind comparison between
80%
250,000
the REF and adv. E[R] the REF and adv. E[R] the REF and adv. E[R] REF wind
3,500
scenarios 2007 - 2050 scenarios 2007 - 2050 scenarios 2007 - 2050
REF renewables
[electricity] [electricity] 225,000 [primary energy]

TWh GW PJ 60%
25.77% 3,000
200,000
SOURCE GWEC SOURCE GPI/GWEC SOURCE GPI/GWEC

175,000
PJ

2,500
GW

39%
150,000
20.16%
ADV E[R] wind 2,000
REF wind 125,000
% REF total wind share 23% 15%
1,500 100,000 15%
16% 14%
14%
75,000
1,000
14%
5.41% 13%
5.00% 50,000 13% 8.38%
6.37%
4.48% 500 4.22%
25,000
0.13% 0.81% 1.98%
1.00% 1.16%
0.45% 0.62% 0.82%
0.13%
0 0
2040

2050

2007

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2007

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2007 - 2050 YEARS 2007 - 2050 YEARS 2007 - 2050

93
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

energy technologies
GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL TECHNOLOGIES
NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES
RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

9
8 “the technology
is here, all
political
we
“the technology
is
need
will.”
is here, all we need
CHRIS
SUPPORTER, AUSTRALIA
image BIOGAS FACILITY “SCHRADEN BIOGAS” IN GROEDEN NEAR DRESDEN, GERMANY.
© LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP

is political will.”
CHRIS JONES
SUPORTER AUSTRALIA

94
image THROUGH BURNING OF WOOD CHIPS THE POWER
PLANT GENERATES ELECTRICITY, ENERGY OR HEAT.
HERE WE SEE THE STOCK OF WOOD CHIPS WITH A

© GP/BAS BEENTJES
CAPACITY OF 1000 M3 ON WHICH THE PLANT CAN RUN,
UNMANNED, FOR ABOUT 4 DAYS. LELYSTAD,
THE NETHERLANDS.

This chapter describes the range of technologies available now and in the Other potential future technologies involve the increased use of coal
future to satisfy the world’s energy demand. The Energy [R]evolution gasification. Underground coal gasification, for example, involves converting
scenario is focused on the potential for energy savings and renewable deep underground unworked coal into a combustible gas which can be used
sources, primarily in the electricity- and heat-generating sectors. for industrial heating, power generation or the manufacture of hydrogen,
synthetic natural gas or other chemicals. The gas can be processed to
remove CO2 before it is passed on to end users. Demonstration projects are
8.1 fossil fuel technologies
underway in Australia, Europe, China and Japan.
The most commonly used fossil fuels for power generation around the
world are coal and gas. Oil is still used where other fuels are not
8.1.2 gas combustion technologies
readily available, for example islands or remote sites, or where there
is an indigenous resource. Together, coal and gas currently account for Natural gas can be used for electricity generation through the use of either
over half of global electricity supply. gas or steam turbines. For the equivalent amount of heat, gas produces
about 45% less carbon dioxide during its combustion than coal.
8.1.1 coal combustion technologies Gas turbine plants use the heat from gases to directly operate the
8
turbine. Natural gas–fuelled turbines can start rapidly, and are
In a conventional coal-fired power station, pulverized or powdered

energy technologies |
therefore often used to supply energy during periods of peak demand,
coal is blown into a combustion chamber where it is burned at high
although at higher cost than that of baseload plants.
temperature. The resulting heat is used to convert water flowing
through pipes lining the boiler into steam. This drives a steam turbine Particularly high efficiencies can be achieved through combining gas
and generates electricity. Over 90% of global coal-fired capacity uses turbines with a steam turbine in combined cycle mode. In a combined
this system. Coal power stations can vary in capacity from a few cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant, a gas turbine generator produces
hundred megawatts up to several thousand. electricity and the exhaust gases from the turbine are then used to make
steam to generate additional electricity. The efficiency of modern CCGT
A number of technologies have been introduced to improve the

FOSSIL FUEL TECHNOLOGIES


power stations can be more than 50%. Most new gas power plants built
environmental performance of conventional coal combustion. These
since the 1990s have been of this type.
include coal cleaning (to reduce the ash content) and various “bolt-on” or
“end-of-pipe” technologies to reduce emissions of particulates, sulphur At least until the recent increase in global gas prices, CCGT power
dioxide and nitrogen oxide, the main pollutants resulting from coal firing, stations have been the cheapest option for electricity generation in
apart from carbon dioxide. Flue gas desulphurisation (FGD), for example, many countries. Capital costs have been substantially lower than for
most commonly involves “scrubbing” the flue gases using an alkaline coal and nuclear plants, and construction time shorter.
sorbent slurry, which is predominantly lime- or limestone-based.
More fundamental changes have been made to the way coal is burned 8.1.3 carbon reduction technologies
to both improve its efficiency and further reduce emissions of
Whenever a fossil fuel is burned, carbon dioxide (CO2) is produced.
pollutants. These include the following:
Depending on the type of power plant, a large quantity of the gas will
• integrated gasification combined cycle: Coal is not burned directly dissipate into the atmosphere and contribute to climate change. A hard-
but reacted with oxygen and steam to form a synthetic gas composed coal power plant discharges roughly 720 grammes of carbon dioxide per
mainly of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. This is cleaned and then kilowatt-hour (g CO2/kWh), a modern gas-fired plant about 370 g
burned in a gas turbine to generate electricity and produce steam to CO2/kWh. One method, currently under development, to mitigate the CO2
drive a steam turbine. IGCC improves the efficiency of coal
impact of fossil fuel combustion is called carbon capture and storage
combustion from a level of 38–40% up to 50%.
(CCS). It involves capturing CO2 from power plant smokestacks,
• supercritical and ultrasupercritical: Power plants using this compressing the captured gas for transport via pipeline or shipping and
technique operate at higher temperatures than with conventional pumping it into underground geological formations for permanent storage.
combustion, again increasing efficiency toward 50%.
While frequently touted as the solution to the carbon problem inherent
• fluidised bed combustion: Coal is burned in a reactor comprising in fossil fuel combustion, CCS for coal-fired power stations is unlikely
a bed through which gas is fed to keep the fuel in a turbulent state.
to be ready for at least another decade. Despite the “proof of concept”
This improves combustion, heat transfer and the recovery of waste
products. By elevating pressures within a bed, a high-pressure gas experiments currently in progress, the technology remains unproven as a
stream can be used to drive a gas turbine, generating electricity. fully integrated process, in relation to all of its operational components.
Emissions of both sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide can be Suitable and effective capture technology has not been developed and
reduced substantially. is unlikely to be commercially available any time soon; effective and
• pressurised pulverized coal combustion: Mainly being developed in safe long-term storage on the scale necessary has not been
Germany, this system is based on the combustion of a finely ground demonstrated; and serious concerns attach to the safety aspects of
cloud of coal particles, creating high-pressure, high-temperature steam transport and injection of CO2 into designated formations, while-long
for power generation. The hot flue gases are used to generate electricity term retention cannot reliably be assured.
in a similar way to that of the combined cycle system.
95
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

Deploying the technology on coal power plants is likely to double carbon storage and climate change targets Can carbon storage
construction costs, increase fuel consumption by 10–40%, consume contribute to climate change reduction targets? In order to avoid
more water, generate more pollutants and ultimately require the dangerous climate change, global greenhouse gas emissions need to
public sector to ensure that the CO2 stays where it has been buried. In peak by between 2015 and 2020 and fall dramatically thereafter.
a similar way to the disposal of nuclear waste, CCS involves creating Power plants capable of capturing and storing CO2 are still being
a scheme whereby future generations monitor in perpetuity the developed, however, and won’t become a reality for at least another
climate pollution produced by their predecessors. decade, if ever. This means that even if CCS works, the technology
would not make any substantial contribution towards protecting the
climate before 2020.
8.1.4 carbon dioxide storage
Power plant CO2 storage will also not be of any great help in attaining
In order to benefit the climate, captured CO2 has to be stored somewhere
the goal of a reduction of at least 80% in greenhouse gas by 2050 in
permanently. Current thinking is that it can be pumped under the earth’s
OECD countries. Even if CCS were to be available in 2020, most of the
surface at a depth of over 3,000 feet into geological formations, such as
world’s new power plants will have just finished being modernized. All
saline aquifers. However, the volume of CO2 that would need to be
8 that could then be done would be for existing power plants to be
captured and stored is enormous—a single coal-fired power plant can
retrofitted and CO2 captured from the waste gas flow. Retrofitting power
energy technologies |

produce seven million tonnes of CO2 annually.


plants would be an extremely expensive exercise. “Capture-ready” power
It is estimated that a single “stabilization wedge” of CCS (enough to plants are equally unlikely to increase the prospect
reduce carbon emissions by one billion metric tons per year by 2050) of retrofitting existing fleets with capture technology.
would require a flow of CO2 into the ground equal to the current flow
The conclusion reached in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is that
out of the ground—and in addition to the associated infrastructure to
renewable energy sources are already available, in many cases
compress, transport and pump it underground. It is still not clear that
cheaper, and lack the negative environmental impacts associated with
it will be technically feasible to capture and bury this much carbon,
fossil fuel exploitation, transport and processing. It is renewable
FOSSIL FUEL TECHNOLOGIES

both in terms of the number of storage sites and whether they will be
energy together with energy efficiency and energy conservation, and
located close enough to power plants.
not carbon capture and storage, that has to increase worldwide so
Even if it is feasible to bury hundreds of thousands of megatons of that the primary cause of climate change—the burning of fossil fuels
CO2, there is no way to guarantee that storage locations will be like coal, oil and gas—is stopped.
appropriately designed and managed over the timescales required. The
world has limited experience of storing CO2 underground; the longest-
Greenpeace opposes any CCS efforts which lead to:
running storage project, at Sleipner in the Norweigian North Sea,
began operation only in 1996. This is particularly concerning because • public financial support of CCS, at the expense of funding renewable
as long as CO2 is present in geological sites, there is a risk of leakage. energy development and investment in energy efficiency;
Although leakages are unlikely to occur in well-characterized, - • the stagnation of renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy
managed and -monitored sites, permanent storage stability cannot be conservation improvements;
guaranteed, since tectonic activity and natural leakage over long
• inclusion of CCS in the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development
timeframes are impossible to predict.
Mechanism (CDM), as it would divert funds away from the stated
Sudden leakage of CO2 can be fatal. Carbon dioxide is not itself intention of the mechanism, and cannot be considered clean
poisonous, and is contained in the air we breathe (at a concentration of development under any coherent definition of this term; or
approximately 0.04 %). But as concentrations increase, it displaces the • the promotion of this possible future technology as the only major
vital oxygen in the air. Air with concentrations of 7 to 8% CO2 by solution to climate change, thereby leading to new fossil fuel
volume causes death by suffocation after 30 to 60 minutes. developments (especially lignite- and black coal–fired
power plants) and an increase in emissions in the short to medium terms.
There are also health hazards when large amounts of CO2 are
explosively released. Although the gas normally disperses quickly after
leaking, it can accumulate in depressions in the landscape or in closed
buildings, since carbon dioxide is heavier than air. It is equally
dangerous when it escapes more slowly and without being noticed in
residential areas; for example, in cellars below houses.
The dangers from such leaks are known from natural volcanic CO2
degassing. Gas escaping at Lake Nyos (a crater lake in Cameroon,
Africa) in 1986 killed over 1,700 people. At least ten people have
died in the Lazio region of Italy in the last 20 years as a result of CO2
being released.

96
image BROWN COAL SURFACE MINING
IN HAMBACH, GERMANY. GIANT COAL
EXCAVATOR AND SPOIL PILE.

© ARNOLD/VISUM/GP
8.2 nuclear technologies To what extent these goals address issues of higher safety standards,
as opposed to improved economics, remains unclear.
Generating electricity from nuclear power involves transferring the
heat produced by a controlled nuclear fission reaction into a Of the new reactor types, the European Pressurised Water Reactor
conventional steam turbine generator. The nuclear reaction takes (EPR) has been developed from the most recent Generation II
place inside a core and surrounded by a containment vessel of varying designs, and is to be launched in France and Germany.120 The stated
design and structure. Heat is removed from the core by a coolant goals for this design are: to improve safety levels—in particular, to
(gas or water) and the reaction controlled by a moderating element reduce the probability of a severe accident by a factor of ten; to
(or “moderator”). achieve mitigation from severe accidents by restricting their
consequences to the plant itself; and to reduce costs. Compared to its
Across the world over the last two decades, there has been a general
predecessors, however, the EPR displays several modifications which
slowdown in building new nuclear power stations. This has been
constitute a reduction of safety margins, including
caused by a variety of factors, in particular: fear of a nuclear
the following:
accident, following the events at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and
Monju; and increased scrutiny of economics and environmental • The volume of the reactor building has been reduced by simplifying
the layout of the emergency core cooling system, 8
factors, such as waste management and radioactive discharges.
and by using the results of new calculations which predict less

energy technologies |
hydrogen development during an accident.
8.2.1 nuclear reactor designs: evolution and
• The thermal output of the plant has been increased by 15%,
safety issues
relative to existing French reactors, by increasing core outlet
Currently, there are 441 nuclear power reactors operating in 30 temperature, letting the main coolant pumps run at higher capacity
countries around the world.117 Although there are dozens of different and modifying the steam generators.
reactor designs and sizes, there are three broad categories either • There are fewer redundant pathways in the safety systems than
currently deployed or under development. in a German Generation II reactor.

NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES
These are:
Several other modifications are hailed as substantial safety
Generation I: Prototype commercial reactors developed in the 1950s improvements, including a “core catcher” system to control a
and 1960s as modified or enlarged military reactors, originally either meltdown accident. Nonetheless, in spite of the changes being
for submarine propulsion or plutonium production. envisaged, there is no guarantee that the safety level of the EPR
Generation II: Mainstream reactor designs in commercial operation actually represents a significant improvement. In particular, reduction
worldwide. of the expected core-melt probability by a factor of ten is not proven.
Furthermore, there are serious doubts as to whether mitigation and
Generation III: New generation reactors now being built. control of a core melt accident by using the core catcher concept will
Generation III reactors include the so-called Advanced Reactors, actually work.
three of which are already in operation in Japan, with more under Finally, Generation IV Generation IV reactors are currently being
construction or planned. About 20 different designs are reported to developed with the aim of commercialization in 20–30 years.
be under development118, most of them “evolutionary” designs derived
from Generation II reactor types, with some modifications but
without introducing drastic changes. Some of them represent more-
innovative approaches. According to the World Nuclear Association,
reactors of Generation III are characterized by
the following:
• a standardized design for each type, to expedite licensing and
reduce capital cost and construction time;
• a simpler and more rugged design, making them easier to operate
and less vulnerable to operational upsets;
• higher availability and longer operating life, typically 60 years;
• reduced possibility of core melt accidents;.
• minimal effect on the environment;
• higher burn-up, to reduce fuel use and the amount of waste; and 117 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, POWER REACTOR INFORMATION SYSTEM
DATABASE.
• burnable absorbers (“poisons”), to extend fuel life.119 118 IAEA 2004; WNO 2004A
119 WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION, ADVANCED NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS, ONLINE AT
<HTTP://WWW.WORLD-NUCLEAR.ORG/INFO/INF08.HTML>.
120 HAINZ 2004.

97
WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

8.3 renewable energy technologies • thin film technology Thin-film modules are constructed by
depositing extremely thin layers of photosensitive materials onto a
Renewable energy covers a range of natural sources which are substrate such as glass, stainless steel or flexible plastic. The latter
constantly renewed and therefore, unlike fossil fuels and uranium, will opens up a range of applications, especially for building integration
never be exhausted. Most of them derive from the effect of the sun and (roof tiles) and end-consumer purposes. Four types of thin-film
moon on the earth’s weather patterns. They also produce none of the modules are commercially available at the moment: amorphous
harmful emissions and pollution associated with “conventional” fuels. silicon, cadmium telluride, copper indium/gallium
Although hydroelectric power has been used on an industrial scale since diselenide/disulphide, and multi-junction cells.
the middle of the last century, the serious exploitation of other • other emerging cell technologies (at the development or early
renewable sources has a more recent history. commercial stage): These include concentrated photovoltaic,
consisting of cells built into concentrating collectors that use a lens
8