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CONFIDENCE INTERVALS – STATISTICS 2 (WJEC)

The main ideas are: Before the exam you should know:
• Confidence limits for the mean based on a sample of size n taken
• Confidence Interval for

 
from a Normal population with standard deviation σ are given by:
mean of a normal
distribution, var known √

• Confidence interval for


• Confidence limits for the difference between the means based on
difference between means a samples of size n1 and n2 taken from Normal populations with
of two normal distributions standard deviations σ1 and σ2 are given by:

̅  ̅ 



variances known    
• Hypothesis test for  
difference between means
of two normal • The required value of k is found from tables for percentage
distributions points of the Normal distribution
• For a 90% confidence level, you have two tails of 5%
P(Z ≤ k) = 0.95 hence k = 1.645
• For a 95% confidence level, the two tails are 2.5% each
P(Z ≤ k) = 0.975 hence k = 1.96
• Test statistic for difference between the means of two

̅  ̅
normal distributions


   


 

Meaning of a Confidence Interval


If you find a 90% confidence interval it means that if you take many samples of the same size and construct
a 90% confidence interval from each one, then 90% of these intervals will contain the true population mean.
It does NOT mean that there is a 90% chance that the mean lies within the confidence interval.
This may seem like a subtle distinction, or just a different wording. The important point, however, is that the
true population mean is not random.

Example 1
The weights, in kg, of newborn babies can be assumed to be normally distributed with mean µ and standard
deviation 0.15.
A random sample of 10 babies born in a particular hospital is selected. The total of the weights of the 10
babies is found to be 28.5 kg.
Find a 95% confidence interval for µ.

.

  . 


Disclaimer: Every effort has gone into ensuring the accuracy of this document. However the Further Maths Support
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Mathemateg Bellach Cymru dderbyn unrhyw gyfrifoldeb am ei chynnwys yn cyfateb yn union gyda manylebau CBAC.
www.furthermaths.org.uk
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Rheolir FMSP partneriaeth â hariannir gan
Cymru gan

For a 95% confidence interval k = 1.96 since P(Z < 1.96) = 0.975

95% Confidence interval for µ is ̅  2.757, 2.943


 . .
= 2.85
√ √

Example 2
A biologist wishes to determine whether there is a difference in the heights of two different sub-species of a
rare plant. The heights of both subspecies may be assumed to be Normally distributed with standard
deviation 1.5 cm. She measures the heights (in cm) of several plants from each subspecies. Her results are as
follows.
Subspecies 1 12.1 13.3 11.1 15.2 13.9 12.4
Subspecies 2 11.4 12.9 11.5 10.1 9.2
(i) State suitable hypotheses, calculate the p-value of the above measurements and interpret your value in
context.
(ii) Find a 90% confidence interval for the difference in heights of the two subspecies.

Let µ1 be the population mean height for subspecies 1,


and let µ2 be the population mean height for subspecies 2.

(i) H0 : µ1 = µ2
H 1 : µ1 ≠ µ 2

  6 ∑   78 ̅   13   1.5


  5 ∑   55.1 ̅   11.02   1.5



.


̅  ̅


. 
Test statistic    2.18
      
    . .
  

P(Z > 2.18) = 1 – P(Z < 2.18) = 1 – 0.98537 = 0.01463


Two-tailed test, so p-value = 2 × 0.01463 = 0.02926
p-value = 0.02926 < 0.05, so reject H0.
There is strong evidence to suggest that there is a difference in the heights of the two subspecies.

(ii) 90% confidence interval k = 1.645

Confidence interval is ̅  ̅  



  
 

1.5 1.5
13  11.02 1.645 !
"  1.98 1.494  0.486, 3.474
6 5

Disclaimer: Every effort has gone into ensuring the accuracy of this document. However the Further Maths Support
Programme Wales can accept no responsibility for its content matching WJEC specifications exactly.
Ymwadiad: Mae pob ymdrech wedi mynd mewn i sicrhau cywirdeb y ddogfen hon. Er hyn, ni all y Rhaglen Cymorth
Mathemateg Bellach Cymru dderbyn unrhyw gyfrifoldeb am ei chynnwys yn cyfateb yn union gyda manylebau CBAC.
www.furthermaths.org.uk
The FMSP Wales in partnership with funded by
Is managed by mewn ac fe’i
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CYFYNGAU HYDER – YSTADEGAU S2 (CBAC)


Y prif syniadau yw: Cyn yr arholiad dylech fod yn gwybod:
• Terfannau hyder ar gyfer cymedr sampl wedi’i seilio ar sampl maint
• Cyfwng Hyder ar gyfer
n a gymerwyd wrth boblogaeth Normal gyda gwyriad safonol σ,
cymedr dosraniad normal,


rhoddir gan:
yr amrywiant yn hysbys 
√
• Cyfwng Hyder ar gyfer y
gwahaniaeth rhwng
• Terfannau hyder ar gyfer y gwahaniaeth rhwng cymedrau wedi’i
cymedrau dau ddosraniad seilio ar samplau maint n1 a n2 a gymerwyd wrth ddosraniad
normal, lle mae’r ddau Normal gyda gwyriadau safonol σ1 a σ2, rhoddir gan:

̅  ̅ 



amrywiant yn hysbys.    
• Profi rhagdybiaeth ar gyfer  
y gwahaniaeth rhwng
cymedrau dau ddosraniad • Darganfyddir gwerth penodol k o dablau ar gyfer pwyntiau
normal lle mae’r canrannol y dosraniad Normal
• Ar gyfer lefel hyder 90%, bydd gennych ddau gwt 5%
amrywiannau’n hysbys.
P(Z ≤ k) = 0.95 hynny yw k = 1.645
• Ar gyfer lefel hyder 95%, mae’r ddau gwt yn 2.5% yr un
P(Z ≤ k) = 0.975 hynny yw k = 1.96
• Yr ystadegyn prawf ar gyfer y gwahaniaeth rhwng cymedrau

̅  ̅
dau ddosraniad normal


 
 

 

Esboniad Cyfwng Hyder


Os ddarganfyddwch cyfwng hyder 90% mae’n golygu os cymerwch nifer o samplau o’r un maint ac
adeiladu cyfwng hyder 90% wrth bob un, bydd 90% o’r cyfyngau hyn yn cynnwys gwir gymedr y
boblogaeth
Nid yw hyn yn golygu bod yna siawns o 90% bydd y cymedr o fewn y cyfwng hyder yna.
Mae hyn yn ymddangos fel gwahaniaeth ysgafn, neu dim ond geiriad gwahanol. Er hynny, y pwynt pwysig yw
nad yw gwir gymedr y boblogaeth ar hap.

Enghraifft 1
Cymerir bod pwysau, mewn kg, babanod newydd anedig wedi’i ddosranu’n normal gyda chymedr µ a gwiriad
safonol 0.15.
Dewisir hapsampl o 10 baban newydd anedig mewn ysbyty penodol. Darganfyddir bod cyfanswm
pwysau’r 10 baban yn 28.5 kg.
Darganfyddwch gyfwng hyder 95% ar gyfer µ.

.

  . 


Disclaimer: Every effort has gone into ensuring the accuracy of this document. However the Further Maths Support
Programme Wales can accept no responsibility for its content matching WJEC specifications exactly.
Ymwadiad: Mae pob ymdrech wedi mynd mewn i sicrhau cywirdeb y ddogfen hon. Er hyn, ni all y Rhaglen Cymorth
Mathemateg Bellach Cymru dderbyn unrhyw gyfrifoldeb am ei chynnwys yn cyfateb yn union gyda manylebau CBAC.
www.furthermaths.org.uk
The FMSP Wales in partnership with funded by
Is managed by mewn ac fe’i
Rheolir FMSP partneriaeth â hariannir gan
Cymru gan

Ar gyfer cyfwng hyder 95% mae k = 1.96 gan fod P(Z < 1.96) = 0.975

Cyfwng hyder 95% ar gyfer µ yw ̅  2.757, 2.943


 . .
= 2.85
√ √

Enghraifft 2
Mae biolegydd angen penderfynu a oes yna wahaniaeth mewn uchder dwy isrywogaeth planhigyn prin.
Honnir bod uchder y ddwy isrywogaeth wedi’u dosrannu’n Normal gyda gwyriad safonol 1.5 cm. Mae’n
mesur uchderau (mewn cm) nifer o blanhigion o’r ddwy isrywogaeth. Dyma ei chanlyniadau:
Isrywogaeth 1 12.1 13.3 11.1 15.2 13.9 12.4
Isrywogaeth 2 11.4 12.9 11.5 10.1 9.2
(i) Nodwch ragdybiaethau addas, cyfrifwch y gwerth-p am y mesuriadau uchod a dehonglwch eich
canlyniadau o fewn y cyd-destun.
(ii) Darganfyddwch gyfwng hyder 90% ar gyfer y gwahaniaeth rhwng uchderau’r ddwy isrywogaeth.

Gosod µ1 fel cymedr y boblogaeth ar gyfer isrywogaeth 1,


A gosod µ2 fel cymedr y boblogaeth ar gyfer isrywogaeth 2.

(i) H0 : µ1 = µ2
H 1 : µ1 ≠ µ 2

  6 ∑   78 ̅   13   1.5


  5 ∑   55.1 ̅   11.02   1.5



.


̅  ̅ 


. 
Ystadegyn prawf    2.18
      
    . .
  

P(Z > 2.18) = 1 – P(Z < 2.18) = 1 – 0.98537 = 0.01463


Prawf dau-ochrog, felly gwerth-p = 2 × 0.01463 = 0.02926
gwerth-p = 0.02926 < 0.05, felly gwrthod H0.
Mae yna dystiolaeth gryf i awgrymu bod yna wahaniaeth rhwng taldra’r ddau isrywogaeth.

(ii) Cyfwng hyder 90% k = 1.645

Y cyfwng hyder yw ̅  ̅  



   
 

1.5 1.5
13  11.02 1.645 !
"  1.98 1.494  0.486, 3.474
6 5

Disclaimer: Every effort has gone into ensuring the accuracy of this document. However the Further Maths Support
Programme Wales can accept no responsibility for its content matching WJEC specifications exactly.
Ymwadiad: Mae pob ymdrech wedi mynd mewn i sicrhau cywirdeb y ddogfen hon. Er hyn, ni all y Rhaglen Cymorth
Mathemateg Bellach Cymru dderbyn unrhyw gyfrifoldeb am ei chynnwys yn cyfateb yn union gyda manylebau CBAC.