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4 Alternative Paths to the Future ...

THE FUTURE
The Scenario Growth paradigms continue to drive this What you’ll encounter in a future of growth
world, and modest, erratic economic growth continues. But

GRO W T H One Step Ahead of Disaster


this growth is driven primarily by heavy investment to avert Electric transport vs. biofuels, natural gas vs. closed-box
nuclear—competing solutions drive market volatility, policy
looming disasters, with massively funded technological inno-
carbon stalemates, and continued growth of carbon emissions
vation to meet climate, food, and other environmental crises.

is a high-resolution game ■■

■■
Shorter, more
localized boom
and bust cycles

New kinds of credit


for new kinds of
water
Water is the new oil—desalination technologies provide
a competitive advantage as Gross Water Production (GWP)
becomes a measure of economic vitality

China First, India First, US exceptionalism—nationalist


2010 Map O f T he Decade investors
sentiment provides the backdrop for debates about
■■ Increasing global power geoengineering and climate mitigation vs. adaptation
consumption

■■ Growing rich-poor
gap, with locally Sensor-driven smart cities—urban data becomes a strong
diverse shifts along cities economic driver and a platform for business opportunities
The goals ar e c l e a r The rules? W h at gives the grid i ts the spectrum of
s tr u c ture? the middle class
H appiness These are less obvious. Do we follow Autonomous networked identities—digital trace analysis
the rules of the past century: compete to ■■ Ad hoc application
What do we really want out of life? There are five big forces that we must takes identity tracking and identity management to a new
of deep new
grow? Or do we create new rules for a confront in order to win: carbon, water, level while neuro-enhancement tools grow in popularity
Resilience knowledge identity
new era: seek well-being within a world power, cities, and identity.
What if we could all respond better, adapt of constraint, or cooperate to create a
more quickly, find steadiness amidst new and as yet unimagined civilization? These lay the tracks for the worlds we
perturbation? And what happens if things go wrong, will build together over the next decade,
for our ten-year adventure in future-

C o n s t r a i n t Sustainable Paths in a Low-Capital World


if we find ourselves face-to-face with
Legacy
collapse? This is a game where we, the crafting. For each force, we can take four The Scenario A sustainability paradigm sets the norms What you’ll encounter in a future of constraint
How can we craft a world worth leaving players, choose the rules. That’s the first alternative paths, explore four alternative for consumption and shifts both local and global priorities
to the next generation—to the next move, and it commits us to our path. scenarios: growth, constraint, collapse,
away from productivity and wealth generation toward creative Good carbon citizenship, regional carbon trading—
hundred years of play? and transformation.
but not enough to stave off localized climate destruction
participation and happiness. Strong policy, quotas, and game- carbon
As we play this game, reality becomes
T h e g a m e s c a p e its e l f i s a increasingly localized. We find ourselves in like missions drive social cohesiveness.
h i g h - r e s o luti o n g r i d ever more layered and nuanced futures that Personal and national water footprints—global water
often look distinctly different across geog- stress drives new demands for water efficiency across all
Never before has humanity been able to
raphies, across cultures, and even across Weak economic water sectors, especially agriculture
encounter the future in such detail, to ■■

measure the forces of change at such the various identities each of us claims. indicators
vast scales and to fill in the details with More than a fragmented marketplace or a High jobless rates
■■ Global environmental goods and services metrics—
such fine grain. Unfortunately, the grid contentious body politic, this future looks and new definitions science-based management becomes the primary tool
is not complete. Some cells resolve to like a massively branching game environ- of work
power of governance
the scale of nano-images. Others remain ment, where you can win without ever ■■ Local alternative
blurry or even blank. We play by filling in discovering half of the possible pathways— currencies
the details of the grid, by increasing the but you can also lose by mistaking a clear Lifestyle innovations focus on reducing footprints—
■■ Games as policy
resolution at every unmapped edge. line of sight for the whole story. and increase integration of local communities
forums cities
In a decade of challenge, this map is a ■■ Widespread
guide. Play with heart and take the game monitoring and
Institute for the Future Self-monitoring—digital footprints for everything from
seriously. Stake out your reality. Choose modeling of social
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor Palo Alto, carbon, water, and food to health and happiness define
your quests. Hone your world-building and environmental
CA 94301 650.854.6322 www.iftf.org indicators identity personal identities and drive personal behaviors
skills. Then let the gameplay begin. ▼

HOW TO USE THIS MAP HOW TO PLAY THE GAME The Scenario Multiple serial or cascading local and What you’ll encounter in a future of collapse

C o l l a p s e Local Disasters, Regional Conflicts

regional collapses continually threaten the stability of the


Think of the coming decade as a high-resolution game. This map is your guide to the gameplay. world, depleting resources for meaningful innovation, personal High carbon emissions, low carbon-free
capacity—lost opportunities to generate wealth from
and ecological health, and social remediation. Migration is a
carbon carbon management undermine the Global South
Each cell in the grid is a Within the grid, Three types of cards flashpoint for local and regional conflict.
scenario where you could you’ll find clues—signals Design 20- suggest strategies for world-building.
win or lose. It’s also a starting about the future that are minute walk- Happiness. Resilience. Legacy. Floods and water famines—river basins
ing
place for strategy—a place to happening today. neighborhoods These are goals worthy of a become the focus of growing conflict, including
■■ Widespread
play a winning card. world-changing decade. economic
water armed conflict
dislocation

■■ Bankruptcies Worldwide loan defaults—cascading economic, envi-


Here are some suggestions for how to play your cards to achieve these goals: across traditional
ronmental, and political collapse create a crisis in global
public and private power
leadership that signals the end of the globalization era
HAPPINESS RESILIENCE LEGACY institutions

Happiness looks different in Each forecast on the map— In many ways, legacy is ■■ Severe food
each of the scenarios—and each column—poses its all about the epic win. It’s shortages, growth Growth of slums, deterioration of suburbs—but urban
of diet-related
presents different challenges. own challenges to resilience. the play that will change you cities farming comes to the rescue
illness
Pick a row, and start by asking the right The TYF Superstruct Strategies or your organization or your
question for that scenario: from 2008 provide an innovative resilience community today—and make a difference ■■ Crisis of materials:
resource lock down Neuro-fingerprinting—new ways to track what goes on
toolkit that leverages the emerging world for your grandchildren and their grandchil-
Growth : in our brains are used both to protect personal identities
of hyper-connected networks. dren for decades to come. To play for an ■■ High monitoring,
In a world where happiness is a measure low transparency identity and to incriminate those who stray
epic win, scan the entire map, looking for
of life satisfaction, how can you help To play these networks, start by
the biggest challenges: challenges that
people achieve their life goals? choosing a forecast. Then work your
reach beyond the boundaries of your own
way down the column, looking for
Cons tr a i nt: daily world. Then use two guiding questions
the challenges that matter most to you.
In a world where happiness is a moment to play a card:
Think about a way to apply one of these
of well-being, how can you help people
Superstruct Strategies: What will my great-grandchildren say? The Scenario A fundamental change in the costs of coor- What you’ll encounter in a future of transformation
enjoy more of those moments?
Evolvabili t y: How can you encourage Pick a cell in the map and think ahead dination across a variety of human activities begins to create
T r a n s f o r m a t i o n Superstructed Systems

Coll a p s e : three generations. Imagine how your


rapid innovation? organizational innovations that significantly disrupt traditional Lightweight innovation in very small-scale energy
In a world where happiness is a biochemical great-grandchildren will talk about the technologies—leveraged at extreme scales
state, how can you help people manage Ex treme S cale: How can you work the history of that cell in 2060. Write down institutions and processes, with a focus on rapid adaptation to carbon
their personal biochemistry? spectrum of scale from micro to massive? their words, such as: Back in 2010, my extreme environments. Rapid innovation in parallel institutions
A mbient Collaborat ion: How can you great-grandparents made it possible for Oceans as the next frontier—exploration and even coloniza-
Tran s f o r m ati o n : goes hand-in-hand with technological innovation.
In a world where happiness is a social design environments for positive feedback? our generation to ... (fill in the blank). tion of the marine world drives new underwater technologies
contagion, how can you help engineer
water and new debates about who owns the information they produce
Reverse Scarci t y: How can you use re- What can I do to make that state- ■■ Economy as game:
happiness on an extreme scale? newable and diverse resources as rewards? open money
ment true? On another card, write down
gaming platforms
As you move across the map, you’ll en- A mplified O pt imism: How can you something that you or your organization or Dense networks, citizen engagement—experiments in
counter different challenges in each of the find and link super-empowered hopeful community could do today to make it real. ■■ Open work governance proliferate as long-standing institutions prove
forecast scenarios. Turn them into quests. Make it as concrete as possible. Use both networks and power too slow and self-interested to meet new challenges
individuals? unbundled tasks
What’s required to amplify happiness in this the happiness and resilience questions to
A dapt ive Emotions: How can you use On-demand
scenario? What will you undertake? What help you think of a play that could really ■■
awe, wonder, and appreciation to build services, on-location Biomimetic ideals drive radical new architectures,
could your organization undertake? What be an epic win.
strategic advantage? providers materials, and communities—with ecological
kind of network do you need to succeed? cities
P layt est s: How can you turn challenges management strategies
■■ Small-scale
into fun experiments? manufacturing and
open fabbing
Hyper connectivity plus neuro-enhancement—human
© 2010 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks remain the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1293 ■■ Bio-based neurological systems become an extended network as we
engineering
identity map the impacts of our social interactions on our brains
paradigms
4 Alternative Paths to the Future ...

THE FUTURE
The Scenario Growth paradigms continue to drive this What you’ll encounter in a future of growth
world, and modest, erratic economic growth continues. But

GRO W T H One Step Ahead of Disaster


this growth is driven primarily by heavy investment to avert Electric transport vs. biofuels, natural gas vs. closed-box
nuclear—competing solutions drive market volatility, policy
looming disasters, with massively funded technological inno-
carbon stalemates, and continued growth of carbon emissions
vation to meet climate, food, and other environmental crises.

is a high-resolution game ■■

■■
Shorter, more
localized boom
and bust cycles

New kinds of credit


for new kinds of
water
Water is the new oil—desalination technologies provide
a competitive advantage as Gross Water Production (GWP)
becomes a measure of economic vitality

China First, India First, US exceptionalism—nationalist


2010 Map O f T he Decade investors
sentiment provides the backdrop for debates about
■■ Increasing global power geoengineering and climate mitigation vs. adaptation
consumption

■■ Growing rich-poor
gap, with locally Sensor-driven smart cities—urban data becomes a strong
diverse shifts along cities economic driver and a platform for business opportunities
The goals ar e c l e a r The rules? W h at gives the grid i ts the spectrum of
s tr u c ture? the middle class
H appiness These are less obvious. Do we follow Autonomous networked identities—digital trace analysis
the rules of the past century: compete to ■■ Ad hoc application
What do we really want out of life? There are five big forces that we must takes identity tracking and identity management to a new
of deep new
grow? Or do we create new rules for a confront in order to win: carbon, water, level while neuro-enhancement tools grow in popularity
Resilience knowledge identity
new era: seek well-being within a world power, cities, and identity.
What if we could all respond better, adapt of constraint, or cooperate to create a
more quickly, find steadiness amidst new and as yet unimagined civilization? These lay the tracks for the worlds we
perturbation? And what happens if things go wrong, will build together over the next decade,
for our ten-year adventure in future-

C o n s t r a i n t Sustainable Paths in a Low-Capital World


if we find ourselves face-to-face with
Legacy
collapse? This is a game where we, the crafting. For each force, we can take four The Scenario A sustainability paradigm sets the norms What you’ll encounter in a future of constraint
How can we craft a world worth leaving players, choose the rules. That’s the first alternative paths, explore four alternative for consumption and shifts both local and global priorities
to the next generation—to the next move, and it commits us to our path. scenarios: growth, constraint, collapse,
away from productivity and wealth generation toward creative Good carbon citizenship, regional carbon trading—
hundred years of play? and transformation.
but not enough to stave off localized climate destruction
participation and happiness. Strong policy, quotas, and game- carbon
As we play this game, reality becomes
T h e g a m e s c a p e its e l f i s a increasingly localized. We find ourselves in like missions drive social cohesiveness.
h i g h - r e s o luti o n g r i d ever more layered and nuanced futures that Personal and national water footprints—global water
often look distinctly different across geog- stress drives new demands for water efficiency across all
Never before has humanity been able to
raphies, across cultures, and even across Weak economic water sectors, especially agriculture
encounter the future in such detail, to ■■

measure the forces of change at such the various identities each of us claims. indicators
vast scales and to fill in the details with More than a fragmented marketplace or a High jobless rates
■■ Global environmental goods and services metrics—
such fine grain. Unfortunately, the grid contentious body politic, this future looks and new definitions science-based management becomes the primary tool
is not complete. Some cells resolve to like a massively branching game environ- of work
power of governance
the scale of nano-images. Others remain ment, where you can win without ever ■■ Local alternative
blurry or even blank. We play by filling in discovering half of the possible pathways— currencies
the details of the grid, by increasing the but you can also lose by mistaking a clear Lifestyle innovations focus on reducing footprints—
■■ Games as policy
resolution at every unmapped edge. line of sight for the whole story. and increase integration of local communities
forums cities
In a decade of challenge, this map is a ■■ Widespread
guide. Play with heart and take the game monitoring and
Institute for the Future Self-monitoring—digital footprints for everything from
seriously. Stake out your reality. Choose modeling of social
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor Palo Alto, carbon, water, and food to health and happiness define
your quests. Hone your world-building and environmental
CA 94301 650.854.6322 www.iftf.org indicators identity personal identities and drive personal behaviors
skills. Then let the gameplay begin. ▼

HOW TO USE THIS MAP HOW TO PLAY THE GAME The Scenario Multiple serial or cascading local and What you’ll encounter in a future of collapse

C o l l a p s e Local Disasters, Regional Conflicts

regional collapses continually threaten the stability of the


Think of the coming decade as a high-resolution game. This map is your guide to the gameplay. world, depleting resources for meaningful innovation, personal High carbon emissions, low carbon-free
capacity—lost opportunities to generate wealth from
and ecological health, and social remediation. Migration is a
carbon carbon management undermine the Global South
Each cell in the grid is a Within the grid, Three types of cards flashpoint for local and regional conflict.
scenario where you could you’ll find clues—signals Design 20- suggest strategies for world-building.
win or lose. It’s also a starting about the future that are minute walk- Happiness. Resilience. Legacy. Floods and water famines—river basins
ing
place for strategy—a place to happening today. neighborhoods These are goals worthy of a become the focus of growing conflict, including
■■ Widespread
play a winning card. world-changing decade. economic
water armed conflict
dislocation

■■ Bankruptcies Worldwide loan defaults—cascading economic, envi-


Here are some suggestions for how to play your cards to achieve these goals: across traditional
ronmental, and political collapse create a crisis in global
public and private power
leadership that signals the end of the globalization era
HAPPINESS RESILIENCE LEGACY institutions

Happiness looks different in Each forecast on the map— In many ways, legacy is ■■ Severe food
each of the scenarios—and each column—poses its all about the epic win. It’s shortages, growth Growth of slums, deterioration of suburbs—but urban
of diet-related
presents different challenges. own challenges to resilience. the play that will change you cities farming comes to the rescue
illness
Pick a row, and start by asking the right The TYF Superstruct Strategies or your organization or your
question for that scenario: from 2008 provide an innovative resilience community today—and make a difference ■■ Crisis of materials:
resource lock down Neuro-fingerprinting—new ways to track what goes on
toolkit that leverages the emerging world for your grandchildren and their grandchil-
Growth : in our brains are used both to protect personal identities
of hyper-connected networks. dren for decades to come. To play for an ■■ High monitoring,
In a world where happiness is a measure low transparency identity and to incriminate those who stray
epic win, scan the entire map, looking for
of life satisfaction, how can you help To play these networks, start by
the biggest challenges: challenges that
people achieve their life goals? choosing a forecast. Then work your
reach beyond the boundaries of your own
way down the column, looking for
Cons tr a i nt: daily world. Then use two guiding questions
the challenges that matter most to you.
In a world where happiness is a moment to play a card:
Think about a way to apply one of these
of well-being, how can you help people
Superstruct Strategies: What will my great-grandchildren say? The Scenario A fundamental change in the costs of coor- What you’ll encounter in a future of transformation
enjoy more of those moments?
Evolvabili t y: How can you encourage Pick a cell in the map and think ahead dination across a variety of human activities begins to create
T r a n s f o r m a t i o n Superstructed Systems

Coll a p s e : three generations. Imagine how your


rapid innovation? organizational innovations that significantly disrupt traditional Lightweight innovation in very small-scale energy
In a world where happiness is a biochemical great-grandchildren will talk about the technologies—leveraged at extreme scales
state, how can you help people manage Ex treme S cale: How can you work the history of that cell in 2060. Write down institutions and processes, with a focus on rapid adaptation to carbon
their personal biochemistry? spectrum of scale from micro to massive? their words, such as: Back in 2010, my extreme environments. Rapid innovation in parallel institutions
A mbient Collaborat ion: How can you great-grandparents made it possible for Oceans as the next frontier—exploration and even coloniza-
Tran s f o r m ati o n : goes hand-in-hand with technological innovation.
In a world where happiness is a social design environments for positive feedback? our generation to ... (fill in the blank). tion of the marine world drives new underwater technologies
contagion, how can you help engineer
water and new debates about who owns the information they produce
Reverse Scarci t y: How can you use re- What can I do to make that state- ■■ Economy as game:
happiness on an extreme scale? newable and diverse resources as rewards? open money
ment true? On another card, write down
gaming platforms
As you move across the map, you’ll en- A mplified O pt imism: How can you something that you or your organization or Dense networks, citizen engagement—experiments in
counter different challenges in each of the find and link super-empowered hopeful community could do today to make it real. ■■ Open work governance proliferate as long-standing institutions prove
forecast scenarios. Turn them into quests. Make it as concrete as possible. Use both networks and power too slow and self-interested to meet new challenges
individuals? unbundled tasks
What’s required to amplify happiness in this the happiness and resilience questions to
A dapt ive Emotions: How can you use On-demand
scenario? What will you undertake? What help you think of a play that could really ■■
awe, wonder, and appreciation to build services, on-location Biomimetic ideals drive radical new architectures,
could your organization undertake? What be an epic win.
strategic advantage? providers materials, and communities—with ecological
kind of network do you need to succeed? cities
P layt est s: How can you turn challenges management strategies
■■ Small-scale
into fun experiments? manufacturing and
open fabbing
Hyper connectivity plus neuro-enhancement—human
© 2010 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks remain the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1293 ■■ Bio-based neurological systems become an extended network as we
engineering
identity map the impacts of our social interactions on our brains
paradigms
4 Alternative Paths to the Future ...

THE FUTURE
The Scenario Growth paradigms continue to drive this What you’ll encounter in a future of growth
world, and modest, erratic economic growth continues. But

GRO W T H One Step Ahead of Disaster


this growth is driven primarily by heavy investment to avert Electric transport vs. biofuels, natural gas vs. closed-box
nuclear—competing solutions drive market volatility, policy
looming disasters, with massively funded technological inno-
carbon stalemates, and continued growth of carbon emissions
vation to meet climate, food, and other environmental crises.

is a high-resolution game ■■

■■
Shorter, more
localized boom
and bust cycles

New kinds of credit


for new kinds of
water
Water is the new oil—desalination technologies provide
a competitive advantage as Gross Water Production (GWP)
becomes a measure of economic vitality

China First, India First, US exceptionalism—nationalist


2010 Map O f T he Decade investors
sentiment provides the backdrop for debates about
■■ Increasing global power geoengineering and climate mitigation vs. adaptation
consumption

■■ Growing rich-poor
gap, with locally Sensor-driven smart cities—urban data becomes a strong
diverse shifts along cities economic driver and a platform for business opportunities
The goals ar e c l e a r The rules? W h at gives the grid i ts the spectrum of
s tr u c ture? the middle class
H appiness These are less obvious. Do we follow Autonomous networked identities—digital trace analysis
the rules of the past century: compete to ■■ Ad hoc application
What do we really want out of life? There are five big forces that we must takes identity tracking and identity management to a new
of deep new
grow? Or do we create new rules for a confront in order to win: carbon, water, level while neuro-enhancement tools grow in popularity
Resilience knowledge identity
new era: seek well-being within a world power, cities, and identity.
What if we could all respond better, adapt of constraint, or cooperate to create a
more quickly, find steadiness amidst new and as yet unimagined civilization? These lay the tracks for the worlds we
perturbation? And what happens if things go wrong, will build together over the next decade,
for our ten-year adventure in future-

C o n s t r a i n t Sustainable Paths in a Low-Capital World


if we find ourselves face-to-face with
Legacy
collapse? This is a game where we, the crafting. For each force, we can take four The Scenario A sustainability paradigm sets the norms What you’ll encounter in a future of constraint
How can we craft a world worth leaving players, choose the rules. That’s the first alternative paths, explore four alternative for consumption and shifts both local and global priorities
to the next generation—to the next move, and it commits us to our path. scenarios: growth, constraint, collapse,
away from productivity and wealth generation toward creative Good carbon citizenship, regional carbon trading—
hundred years of play? and transformation.
but not enough to stave off localized climate destruction
participation and happiness. Strong policy, quotas, and game- carbon
As we play this game, reality becomes
T h e g a m e s c a p e its e l f i s a increasingly localized. We find ourselves in like missions drive social cohesiveness.
h i g h - r e s o luti o n g r i d ever more layered and nuanced futures that Personal and national water footprints—global water
often look distinctly different across geog- stress drives new demands for water efficiency across all
Never before has humanity been able to
raphies, across cultures, and even across Weak economic water sectors, especially agriculture
encounter the future in such detail, to ■■

measure the forces of change at such the various identities each of us claims. indicators
vast scales and to fill in the details with More than a fragmented marketplace or a High jobless rates
■■ Global environmental goods and services metrics—
such fine grain. Unfortunately, the grid contentious body politic, this future looks and new definitions science-based management becomes the primary tool
is not complete. Some cells resolve to like a massively branching game environ- of work
power of governance
the scale of nano-images. Others remain ment, where you can win without ever ■■ Local alternative
blurry or even blank. We play by filling in discovering half of the possible pathways— currencies
the details of the grid, by increasing the but you can also lose by mistaking a clear Lifestyle innovations focus on reducing footprints—
■■ Games as policy
resolution at every unmapped edge. line of sight for the whole story. and increase integration of local communities
forums cities
In a decade of challenge, this map is a ■■ Widespread
guide. Play with heart and take the game monitoring and
Institute for the Future Self-monitoring—digital footprints for everything from
seriously. Stake out your reality. Choose modeling of social
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor Palo Alto, carbon, water, and food to health and happiness define
your quests. Hone your world-building and environmental
CA 94301 650.854.6322 www.iftf.org indicators identity personal identities and drive personal behaviors
skills. Then let the gameplay begin. ▼

HOW TO USE THIS MAP HOW TO PLAY THE GAME The Scenario Multiple serial or cascading local and What you’ll encounter in a future of collapse

C o l l a p s e Local Disasters, Regional Conflicts

regional collapses continually threaten the stability of the


Think of the coming decade as a high-resolution game. This map is your guide to the gameplay. world, depleting resources for meaningful innovation, personal High carbon emissions, low carbon-free
capacity—lost opportunities to generate wealth from
and ecological health, and social remediation. Migration is a
carbon carbon management undermine the Global South
Each cell in the grid is a Within the grid, Three types of cards flashpoint for local and regional conflict.
scenario where you could you’ll find clues—signals Design 20- suggest strategies for world-building.
win or lose. It’s also a starting about the future that are minute walk- Happiness. Resilience. Legacy. Floods and water famines—river basins
ing
place for strategy—a place to happening today. neighborhoods These are goals worthy of a become the focus of growing conflict, including
■■ Widespread
play a winning card. world-changing decade. economic
water armed conflict
dislocation

■■ Bankruptcies Worldwide loan defaults—cascading economic, envi-


Here are some suggestions for how to play your cards to achieve these goals: across traditional
ronmental, and political collapse create a crisis in global
public and private power
leadership that signals the end of the globalization era
HAPPINESS RESILIENCE LEGACY institutions

Happiness looks different in Each forecast on the map— In many ways, legacy is ■■ Severe food
each of the scenarios—and each column—poses its all about the epic win. It’s shortages, growth Growth of slums, deterioration of suburbs—but urban
of diet-related
presents different challenges. own challenges to resilience. the play that will change you cities farming comes to the rescue
illness
Pick a row, and start by asking the right The TYF Superstruct Strategies or your organization or your
question for that scenario: from 2008 provide an innovative resilience community today—and make a difference ■■ Crisis of materials:
resource lock down Neuro-fingerprinting—new ways to track what goes on
toolkit that leverages the emerging world for your grandchildren and their grandchil-
Growth : in our brains are used both to protect personal identities
of hyper-connected networks. dren for decades to come. To play for an ■■ High monitoring,
In a world where happiness is a measure low transparency identity and to incriminate those who stray
epic win, scan the entire map, looking for
of life satisfaction, how can you help To play these networks, start by
the biggest challenges: challenges that
people achieve their life goals? choosing a forecast. Then work your
reach beyond the boundaries of your own
way down the column, looking for
Cons tr a i nt: daily world. Then use two guiding questions
the challenges that matter most to you.
In a world where happiness is a moment to play a card:
Think about a way to apply one of these
of well-being, how can you help people
Superstruct Strategies: What will my great-grandchildren say? The Scenario A fundamental change in the costs of coor- What you’ll encounter in a future of transformation
enjoy more of those moments?
Evolvabili t y: How can you encourage Pick a cell in the map and think ahead dination across a variety of human activities begins to create
T r a n s f o r m a t i o n Superstructed Systems

Coll a p s e : three generations. Imagine how your


rapid innovation? organizational innovations that significantly disrupt traditional Lightweight innovation in very small-scale energy
In a world where happiness is a biochemical great-grandchildren will talk about the technologies—leveraged at extreme scales
state, how can you help people manage Ex treme S cale: How can you work the history of that cell in 2060. Write down institutions and processes, with a focus on rapid adaptation to carbon
their personal biochemistry? spectrum of scale from micro to massive? their words, such as: Back in 2010, my extreme environments. Rapid innovation in parallel institutions
A mbient Collaborat ion: How can you great-grandparents made it possible for Oceans as the next frontier—exploration and even coloniza-
Tran s f o r m ati o n : goes hand-in-hand with technological innovation.
In a world where happiness is a social design environments for positive feedback? our generation to ... (fill in the blank). tion of the marine world drives new underwater technologies
contagion, how can you help engineer
water and new debates about who owns the information they produce
Reverse Scarci t y: How can you use re- What can I do to make that state- ■■ Economy as game:
happiness on an extreme scale? newable and diverse resources as rewards? open money
ment true? On another card, write down
gaming platforms
As you move across the map, you’ll en- A mplified O pt imism: How can you something that you or your organization or Dense networks, citizen engagement—experiments in
counter different challenges in each of the find and link super-empowered hopeful community could do today to make it real. ■■ Open work governance proliferate as long-standing institutions prove
forecast scenarios. Turn them into quests. Make it as concrete as possible. Use both networks and power too slow and self-interested to meet new challenges
individuals? unbundled tasks
What’s required to amplify happiness in this the happiness and resilience questions to
A dapt ive Emotions: How can you use On-demand
scenario? What will you undertake? What help you think of a play that could really ■■
awe, wonder, and appreciation to build services, on-location Biomimetic ideals drive radical new architectures,
could your organization undertake? What be an epic win.
strategic advantage? providers materials, and communities—with ecological
kind of network do you need to succeed? cities
P layt est s: How can you turn challenges management strategies
■■ Small-scale
into fun experiments? manufacturing and
open fabbing
Hyper connectivity plus neuro-enhancement—human
© 2010 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks remain the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1293 ■■ Bio-based neurological systems become an extended network as we
engineering
identity map the impacts of our social interactions on our brains
paradigms
4 Alternative Paths to the Future ...

THE FUTURE
The Scenario Growth paradigms continue to drive this What you’ll encounter in a future of growth
world, and modest, erratic economic growth continues. But

GRO W T H One Step Ahead of Disaster


this growth is driven primarily by heavy investment to avert Electric transport vs. biofuels, natural gas vs. closed-box
nuclear—competing solutions drive market volatility, policy
looming disasters, with massively funded technological inno-
carbon stalemates, and continued growth of carbon emissions
vation to meet climate, food, and other environmental crises.

is a high-resolution game ■■

■■
Shorter, more
localized boom
and bust cycles

New kinds of credit


for new kinds of
water
Water is the new oil—desalination technologies provide
a competitive advantage as Gross Water Production (GWP)
becomes a measure of economic vitality

China First, India First, US exceptionalism—nationalist


2010 Map O f T he Decade investors
sentiment provides the backdrop for debates about
■■ Increasing global power geoengineering and climate mitigation vs. adaptation
consumption

■■ Growing rich-poor
gap, with locally Sensor-driven smart cities—urban data becomes a strong
diverse shifts along cities economic driver and a platform for business opportunities
The goals ar e c l e a r The rules? W h at gives the grid i ts the spectrum of
s tr u c ture? the middle class
H appiness These are less obvious. Do we follow Autonomous networked identities—digital trace analysis
the rules of the past century: compete to ■■ Ad hoc application
What do we really want out of life? There are five big forces that we must takes identity tracking and identity management to a new
of deep new
grow? Or do we create new rules for a confront in order to win: carbon, water, level while neuro-enhancement tools grow in popularity
Resilience knowledge identity
new era: seek well-being within a world power, cities, and identity.
What if we could all respond better, adapt of constraint, or cooperate to create a
more quickly, find steadiness amidst new and as yet unimagined civilization? These lay the tracks for the worlds we
perturbation? And what happens if things go wrong, will build together over the next decade,
for our ten-year adventure in future-

C o n s t r a i n t Sustainable Paths in a Low-Capital World


if we find ourselves face-to-face with
Legacy
collapse? This is a game where we, the crafting. For each force, we can take four The Scenario A sustainability paradigm sets the norms What you’ll encounter in a future of constraint
How can we craft a world worth leaving players, choose the rules. That’s the first alternative paths, explore four alternative for consumption and shifts both local and global priorities
to the next generation—to the next move, and it commits us to our path. scenarios: growth, constraint, collapse,
away from productivity and wealth generation toward creative Good carbon citizenship, regional carbon trading—
hundred years of play? and transformation.
but not enough to stave off localized climate destruction
participation and happiness. Strong policy, quotas, and game- carbon
As we play this game, reality becomes
T h e g a m e s c a p e its e l f i s a increasingly localized. We find ourselves in like missions drive social cohesiveness.
h i g h - r e s o luti o n g r i d ever more layered and nuanced futures that Personal and national water footprints—global water
often look distinctly different across geog- stress drives new demands for water efficiency across all
Never before has humanity been able to
raphies, across cultures, and even across Weak economic water sectors, especially agriculture
encounter the future in such detail, to ■■

measure the forces of change at such the various identities each of us claims. indicators
vast scales and to fill in the details with More than a fragmented marketplace or a High jobless rates
■■ Global environmental goods and services metrics—
such fine grain. Unfortunately, the grid contentious body politic, this future looks and new definitions science-based management becomes the primary tool
is not complete. Some cells resolve to like a massively branching game environ- of work
power of governance
the scale of nano-images. Others remain ment, where you can win without ever ■■ Local alternative
blurry or even blank. We play by filling in discovering half of the possible pathways— currencies
the details of the grid, by increasing the but you can also lose by mistaking a clear Lifestyle innovations focus on reducing footprints—
■■ Games as policy
resolution at every unmapped edge. line of sight for the whole story. and increase integration of local communities
forums cities
In a decade of challenge, this map is a ■■ Widespread
guide. Play with heart and take the game monitoring and
Institute for the Future Self-monitoring—digital footprints for everything from
seriously. Stake out your reality. Choose modeling of social
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor Palo Alto, carbon, water, and food to health and happiness define
your quests. Hone your world-building and environmental
CA 94301 650.854.6322 www.iftf.org indicators identity personal identities and drive personal behaviors
skills. Then let the gameplay begin. ▼

HOW TO USE THIS MAP HOW TO PLAY THE GAME The Scenario Multiple serial or cascading local and What you’ll encounter in a future of collapse

C o l l a p s e Local Disasters, Regional Conflicts

regional collapses continually threaten the stability of the


Think of the coming decade as a high-resolution game. This map is your guide to the gameplay. world, depleting resources for meaningful innovation, personal High carbon emissions, low carbon-free
capacity—lost opportunities to generate wealth from
and ecological health, and social remediation. Migration is a
carbon carbon management undermine the Global South
Each cell in the grid is a Within the grid, Three types of cards flashpoint for local and regional conflict.
scenario where you could you’ll find clues—signals Design 20- suggest strategies for world-building.
win or lose. It’s also a starting about the future that are minute walk- Happiness. Resilience. Legacy. Floods and water famines—river basins
ing
place for strategy—a place to happening today. neighborhoods These are goals worthy of a become the focus of growing conflict, including
■■ Widespread
play a winning card. world-changing decade. economic
water armed conflict
dislocation

■■ Bankruptcies Worldwide loan defaults—cascading economic, envi-


Here are some suggestions for how to play your cards to achieve these goals: across traditional
ronmental, and political collapse create a crisis in global
public and private power
leadership that signals the end of the globalization era
HAPPINESS RESILIENCE LEGACY institutions

Happiness looks different in Each forecast on the map— In many ways, legacy is ■■ Severe food
each of the scenarios—and each column—poses its all about the epic win. It’s shortages, growth Growth of slums, deterioration of suburbs—but urban
of diet-related
presents different challenges. own challenges to resilience. the play that will change you cities farming comes to the rescue
illness
Pick a row, and start by asking the right The TYF Superstruct Strategies or your organization or your
question for that scenario: from 2008 provide an innovative resilience community today—and make a difference ■■ Crisis of materials:
resource lock down Neuro-fingerprinting—new ways to track what goes on
toolkit that leverages the emerging world for your grandchildren and their grandchil-
Growth : in our brains are used both to protect personal identities
of hyper-connected networks. dren for decades to come. To play for an ■■ High monitoring,
In a world where happiness is a measure low transparency identity and to incriminate those who stray
epic win, scan the entire map, looking for
of life satisfaction, how can you help To play these networks, start by
the biggest challenges: challenges that
people achieve their life goals? choosing a forecast. Then work your
reach beyond the boundaries of your own
way down the column, looking for
Cons tr a i nt: daily world. Then use two guiding questions
the challenges that matter most to you.
In a world where happiness is a moment to play a card:
Think about a way to apply one of these
of well-being, how can you help people
Superstruct Strategies: What will my great-grandchildren say? The Scenario A fundamental change in the costs of coor- What you’ll encounter in a future of transformation
enjoy more of those moments?
Evolvabili t y: How can you encourage Pick a cell in the map and think ahead dination across a variety of human activities begins to create
T r a n s f o r m a t i o n Superstructed Systems

Coll a p s e : three generations. Imagine how your


rapid innovation? organizational innovations that significantly disrupt traditional Lightweight innovation in very small-scale energy
In a world where happiness is a biochemical great-grandchildren will talk about the technologies—leveraged at extreme scales
state, how can you help people manage Ex treme S cale: How can you work the history of that cell in 2060. Write down institutions and processes, with a focus on rapid adaptation to carbon
their personal biochemistry? spectrum of scale from micro to massive? their words, such as: Back in 2010, my extreme environments. Rapid innovation in parallel institutions
A mbient Collaborat ion: How can you great-grandparents made it possible for Oceans as the next frontier—exploration and even coloniza-
Tran s f o r m ati o n : goes hand-in-hand with technological innovation.
In a world where happiness is a social design environments for positive feedback? our generation to ... (fill in the blank). tion of the marine world drives new underwater technologies
contagion, how can you help engineer
water and new debates about who owns the information they produce
Reverse Scarci t y: How can you use re- What can I do to make that state- ■■ Economy as game:
happiness on an extreme scale? newable and diverse resources as rewards? open money
ment true? On another card, write down
gaming platforms
As you move across the map, you’ll en- A mplified O pt imism: How can you something that you or your organization or Dense networks, citizen engagement—experiments in
counter different challenges in each of the find and link super-empowered hopeful community could do today to make it real. ■■ Open work governance proliferate as long-standing institutions prove
forecast scenarios. Turn them into quests. Make it as concrete as possible. Use both networks and power too slow and self-interested to meet new challenges
individuals? unbundled tasks
What’s required to amplify happiness in this the happiness and resilience questions to
A dapt ive Emotions: How can you use On-demand
scenario? What will you undertake? What help you think of a play that could really ■■
awe, wonder, and appreciation to build services, on-location Biomimetic ideals drive radical new architectures,
could your organization undertake? What be an epic win.
strategic advantage? providers materials, and communities—with ecological
kind of network do you need to succeed? cities
P layt est s: How can you turn challenges management strategies
■■ Small-scale
into fun experiments? manufacturing and
open fabbing
Hyper connectivity plus neuro-enhancement—human
© 2010 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks remain the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written consent. SR-1293 ■■ Bio-based neurological systems become an extended network as we
engineering
identity map the impacts of our social interactions on our brains
paradigms
The World
of 2020 The Carbon The W ater Adaptive Cities in Molecular
Economy Ecology Power Transition Identity
starts
here
Place your Cards.


Energy Return on Energy Investment

Energy Efficiency


Water Stress

Virtual Water Balance of Trade



Massively Multiplayer World Politics

Cold War Over Global Warming



SocialX Infrastructures
A Suburb-to-Slum Continuum


The Gender Continuum
The Neuro-Social Self

The Carbon Marketplace Water as Feedback System Open-Source Development Urban Food Speciation
Craft the Planet. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Patchwork
Infrastructure Fund a Smart Cities
challenge for Consuming Identities
Electric transport vs. biofuels
low-water Smart vehicles
Autonomous networked identities
GROWTH: Natural gas vs. nuclear energy payment service
4D cities
Petroleum replacement materials solutions. The Desalination
by SMS Gender as a recreational experience
One Step Ahead Embedded governance
Economy A neural-enhancement gap
of Disaster
Water is the new oil
McDonald’s Gross Water Production (GWP) The New
MIT’s
electric vehicle
charging stations The water gap Exceptionalism Citicar
Modest, erratic growth
China First, India First
is driven by investments neural

source: cities.media.mit.edu
Mitigation vs. adaptation debates
regional diagnosis
to avert looming disasters ecosystems Geoengineering and training
services
in climate, energy, water, markets

food, and health. source: williamettepartnership.org


source: IFTF, stock

source: engadget.com

Transition Towns
source: carbongame.org

SocialX infrastructures Design 20-


Suburban reinvention minute walking
Water Footprinting neighborhoods.
carbon Cities as foodsheds
games: Personal water footprints
CONSTRAINT: trading
literacy
Collaborative water monitoring
Sustainable Paths New low-water agriculture
in a Low-Capital
Global
World Carbon Efficiency water Eco-Management
efficiency
Individual carbon quotas labels Global EGS targets The Sustainable Self
source: re-burbia.com
Sustainability norms Embedded carbon monitoring Turn water Management by simulation Personal digital mirrors
Carbon games into a reward new designs
Legal rights for nature for suburbs High-def self-simulation
shift local and global system. What can
I do today: Eco-happiness
priorities away from
source: Team with food, ag,
can epa.gov/watersense
and retail companies
What day:
waterfootprint.org
source:

productivity and wealth,


t o
Id o to reorganize by
toward happiness and What the foodsheds.
Playtest kids will say:
on-
in carb
creative participation. Invest le the water a global “My great-
b
What the sustaina opment. footprint constitutional grandmother
e l
kids will say: redev network convention. built a sustainabl
e
food industry.”
“My great-grand-
father made New Feral Cities
Orleans wealthy.” De-Legitimization
Agricultural urban development
Worldwide loan defaults
Slum mapping Identity Hacking
Collapse of Bretton Woods institutions
new Pro-poor movements
COLLAPSE: Identity defense
Lost Opportunity financial End of globalization era
Local Disasters, models Neural fingerprinting
More climate disasters for water
Regional Conflicts Memory erasure
Volatile energy, food, and materials prices

source: detroitagriculture.org
Somali
No carbon credit wealth pirates or
River Basins Somali coast
Local and regional in Trouble guard?

failures threaten the Crop migration employee ID


management Create
source: africa-adapt.net

Water famines in the cloud low-cost diets


stability of the world, climate urban
change Militarization of water security community that enhance
dislocate populations, and response- source:
gardening biochemical
networks U.S. Navy in Wikimedia Commons networks happiness.
de-legitimize institutions.

sampling
source: bmt.org

source: Fowler & Christakis, bmj.com


the ocean
for genetic
materials

pollution
detecting Analyze Biomimetic Cities viral
underwater
the impacts of Radical architecture
happiness
robot
policy at the networks
molecular scale.
neuro-
Carbon Down-Scaling source: camera.calit2.net source: Kenneth Lee
targeted
Ultra-efficient materials
TRANSFORMATION: political Growing surfaces
Lightweight innovation
messaging
Superstructed Molecular waste conversion Oceans of Invention
Systems Molecular manufacturing Neuro-Social
Undersea mapping
slum
Identities
Ocean robotics Globally Local network
Neurological theories of the self
Buoyed by falling costs Open ocean IP Governance mapping in
India Viral emotional networking
of coordination, Participatory governance experiments Neuro-social environments
What the
kids will say: Wha
t
Non-geographic representation
organizational innovations I do can
toda
y: Neuro-social politics
“My great-
focus on rapid adaptation Build
grandad saved the “
source: instructables.com
to pat fish robots” Create a
to extreme environments. coral reefs.” r
reef p ol against Turn a city #happiness
citizen
arasit into a futures hashtag for
environmental es. source: changemakers.com
science gameboard. Twitter.
networks
The World
of 2020 The Carbon The W ater Adaptive Cities in Molecular
Economy Ecology Power Transition Identity
starts
here
Place your Cards.


Energy Return on Energy Investment

Energy Efficiency


Water Stress

Virtual Water Balance of Trade



Massively Multiplayer World Politics

Cold War Over Global Warming



SocialX Infrastructures
A Suburb-to-Slum Continuum


The Gender Continuum
The Neuro-Social Self

The Carbon Marketplace Water as Feedback System Open-Source Development Urban Food Speciation
Craft the Planet. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Patchwork
Infrastructure Fund a Smart Cities
challenge for Consuming Identities
Electric transport vs. biofuels
low-water Smart vehicles
Autonomous networked identities
GROWTH: Natural gas vs. nuclear energy payment service
4D cities
Petroleum replacement materials solutions. The Desalination
by SMS Gender as a recreational experience
One Step Ahead Embedded governance
Economy A neural-enhancement gap
of Disaster
Water is the new oil
McDonald’s Gross Water Production (GWP) The New
MIT’s
electric vehicle
charging stations The water gap Exceptionalism Citicar
Modest, erratic growth
China First, India First
is driven by investments neural

source: cities.media.mit.edu
Mitigation vs. adaptation debates
regional diagnosis
to avert looming disasters ecosystems Geoengineering and training
services
in climate, energy, water, markets

food, and health. source: williamettepartnership.org


source: IFTF, stock

source: engadget.com

Transition Towns
source: carbongame.org

SocialX infrastructures Design 20-


Suburban reinvention minute walking
Water Footprinting neighborhoods.
carbon Cities as foodsheds
games: Personal water footprints
CONSTRAINT: trading
literacy
Collaborative water monitoring
Sustainable Paths New low-water agriculture
in a Low-Capital
Global
World Carbon Efficiency water Eco-Management
efficiency
Individual carbon quotas labels Global EGS targets The Sustainable Self
source: re-burbia.com
Sustainability norms Embedded carbon monitoring Turn water Management by simulation Personal digital mirrors
Carbon games into a reward new designs
Legal rights for nature for suburbs High-def self-simulation
shift local and global system. What can
I do today: Eco-happiness
priorities away from
source: Team with food, ag,
can epa.gov/watersense
and retail companies
What day:
waterfootprint.org
source:

productivity and wealth,


t o
Id o to reorganize by
toward happiness and What the foodsheds.
Playtest kids will say:
on-
in carb
creative participation. Invest le the water a global “My great-
b
What the sustaina opment. footprint constitutional grandmother
e l
kids will say: redev network convention. built a sustainabl
e
food industry.”
“My great-grand-
father made New Feral Cities
Orleans wealthy.” De-Legitimization
Agricultural urban development
Worldwide loan defaults
Slum mapping Identity Hacking
Collapse of Bretton Woods institutions
new Pro-poor movements
COLLAPSE: Identity defense
Lost Opportunity financial End of globalization era
Local Disasters, models Neural fingerprinting
More climate disasters for water
Regional Conflicts Memory erasure
Volatile energy, food, and materials prices

source: detroitagriculture.org
Somali
No carbon credit wealth pirates or
River Basins Somali coast
Local and regional in Trouble guard?

failures threaten the Crop migration employee ID


management Create
source: africa-adapt.net

Water famines in the cloud low-cost diets


stability of the world, climate urban
change Militarization of water security community that enhance
dislocate populations, and response- source:
gardening biochemical
networks U.S. Navy in Wikimedia Commons networks happiness.
de-legitimize institutions.

sampling
source: bmt.org

source: Fowler & Christakis, bmj.com


the ocean
for genetic
materials

pollution
detecting Analyze Biomimetic Cities viral
underwater
the impacts of Radical architecture
happiness
robot
policy at the networks
molecular scale.
neuro-
Carbon Down-Scaling source: camera.calit2.net source: Kenneth Lee
targeted
Ultra-efficient materials
TRANSFORMATION: political Growing surfaces
Lightweight innovation
messaging
Superstructed Molecular waste conversion Oceans of Invention
Systems Molecular manufacturing Neuro-Social
Undersea mapping
slum
Identities
Ocean robotics Globally Local network
Neurological theories of the self
Buoyed by falling costs Open ocean IP Governance mapping in
India Viral emotional networking
of coordination, Participatory governance experiments Neuro-social environments
What the
kids will say: Wha
t
Non-geographic representation
organizational innovations I do can
toda
y: Neuro-social politics
“My great-
focus on rapid adaptation Build
grandad saved the “
source: instructables.com
to pat fish robots” Create a
to extreme environments. coral reefs.” r
reef p ol against Turn a city #happiness
citizen
arasit into a futures hashtag for
environmental es. source: changemakers.com
science gameboard. Twitter.
networks
The World
of 2020 The Carbon The W ater Adaptive Cities in Molecular
Economy Ecology Power Transition Identity
starts
here
Place your Cards.


Energy Return on Energy Investment

Energy Efficiency


Water Stress

Virtual Water Balance of Trade



Massively Multiplayer World Politics

Cold War Over Global Warming



SocialX Infrastructures
A Suburb-to-Slum Continuum


The Gender Continuum
The Neuro-Social Self

The Carbon Marketplace Water as Feedback System Open-Source Development Urban Food Speciation
Craft the Planet. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Patchwork
Infrastructure Fund a Smart Cities
challenge for Consuming Identities
Electric transport vs. biofuels
low-water Smart vehicles
Autonomous networked identities
GROWTH: Natural gas vs. nuclear energy payment service
4D cities
Petroleum replacement materials solutions. The Desalination
by SMS Gender as a recreational experience
One Step Ahead Embedded governance
Economy A neural-enhancement gap
of Disaster
Water is the new oil
McDonald’s Gross Water Production (GWP) The New
MIT’s
electric vehicle
charging stations The water gap Exceptionalism Citicar
Modest, erratic growth
China First, India First
is driven by investments neural

source: cities.media.mit.edu
Mitigation vs. adaptation debates
regional diagnosis
to avert looming disasters ecosystems Geoengineering and training
services
in climate, energy, water, markets

food, and health. source: williamettepartnership.org


source: IFTF, stock

source: engadget.com

Transition Towns
source: carbongame.org

SocialX infrastructures Design 20-


Suburban reinvention minute walking
Water Footprinting neighborhoods.
carbon Cities as foodsheds
games: Personal water footprints
CONSTRAINT: trading
literacy
Collaborative water monitoring
Sustainable Paths New low-water agriculture
in a Low-Capital
Global
World Carbon Efficiency water Eco-Management
efficiency
Individual carbon quotas labels Global EGS targets The Sustainable Self
source: re-burbia.com
Sustainability norms Embedded carbon monitoring Turn water Management by simulation Personal digital mirrors
Carbon games into a reward new designs
Legal rights for nature for suburbs High-def self-simulation
shift local and global system. What can
I do today: Eco-happiness
priorities away from
source: Team with food, ag,
can epa.gov/watersense
and retail companies
What day:
waterfootprint.org
source:

productivity and wealth,


t o
Id o to reorganize by
toward happiness and What the foodsheds.
Playtest kids will say:
on-
in carb
creative participation. Invest le the water a global “My great-
b
What the sustaina opment. footprint constitutional grandmother
e l
kids will say: redev network convention. built a sustainabl
e
food industry.”
“My great-grand-
father made New Feral Cities
Orleans wealthy.” De-Legitimization
Agricultural urban development
Worldwide loan defaults
Slum mapping Identity Hacking
Collapse of Bretton Woods institutions
new Pro-poor movements
COLLAPSE: Identity defense
Lost Opportunity financial End of globalization era
Local Disasters, models Neural fingerprinting
More climate disasters for water
Regional Conflicts Memory erasure
Volatile energy, food, and materials prices

source: detroitagriculture.org
Somali
No carbon credit wealth pirates or
River Basins Somali coast
Local and regional in Trouble guard?

failures threaten the Crop migration employee ID


management Create
source: africa-adapt.net

Water famines in the cloud low-cost diets


stability of the world, climate urban
change Militarization of water security community that enhance
dislocate populations, and response- source:
gardening biochemical
networks U.S. Navy in Wikimedia Commons networks happiness.
de-legitimize institutions.

sampling
source: bmt.org

source: Fowler & Christakis, bmj.com


the ocean
for genetic
materials

pollution
detecting Analyze Biomimetic Cities viral
underwater
the impacts of Radical architecture
happiness
robot
policy at the networks
molecular scale.
neuro-
Carbon Down-Scaling source: camera.calit2.net source: Kenneth Lee
targeted
Ultra-efficient materials
TRANSFORMATION: political Growing surfaces
Lightweight innovation
messaging
Superstructed Molecular waste conversion Oceans of Invention
Systems Molecular manufacturing Neuro-Social
Undersea mapping
slum
Identities
Ocean robotics Globally Local network
Neurological theories of the self
Buoyed by falling costs Open ocean IP Governance mapping in
India Viral emotional networking
of coordination, Participatory governance experiments Neuro-social environments
What the
kids will say: Wha
t
Non-geographic representation
organizational innovations I do can
toda
y: Neuro-social politics
“My great-
focus on rapid adaptation Build
grandad saved the “
source: instructables.com
to pat fish robots” Create a
to extreme environments. coral reefs.” r
reef p ol against Turn a city #happiness
citizen
arasit into a futures hashtag for
environmental es. source: changemakers.com
science gameboard. Twitter.
networks
The World
of 2020 The Carbon The W ater Adaptive Cities in Molecular
Economy Ecology Power Transition Identity
starts
here
Place your Cards.


Energy Return on Energy Investment

Energy Efficiency


Water Stress

Virtual Water Balance of Trade



Massively Multiplayer World Politics

Cold War Over Global Warming



SocialX Infrastructures
A Suburb-to-Slum Continuum


The Gender Continuum
The Neuro-Social Self

The Carbon Marketplace Water as Feedback System Open-Source Development Urban Food Speciation
Craft the Planet. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Patchwork
Infrastructure Fund a Smart Cities
challenge for Consuming Identities
Electric transport vs. biofuels
low-water Smart vehicles
Autonomous networked identities
GROWTH: Natural gas vs. nuclear energy payment service
4D cities
Petroleum replacement materials solutions. The Desalination
by SMS Gender as a recreational experience
One Step Ahead Embedded governance
Economy A neural-enhancement gap
of Disaster
Water is the new oil
McDonald’s Gross Water Production (GWP) The New
MIT’s
electric vehicle
charging stations The water gap Exceptionalism Citicar
Modest, erratic growth
China First, India First
is driven by investments neural

source: cities.media.mit.edu
Mitigation vs. adaptation debates
regional diagnosis
to avert looming disasters ecosystems Geoengineering and training
services
in climate, energy, water, markets

food, and health. source: williamettepartnership.org


source: IFTF, stock

source: engadget.com

Transition Towns
source: carbongame.org

SocialX infrastructures Design 20-


Suburban reinvention minute walking
Water Footprinting neighborhoods.
carbon Cities as foodsheds
games: Personal water footprints
CONSTRAINT: trading
literacy
Collaborative water monitoring
Sustainable Paths New low-water agriculture
in a Low-Capital
Global
World Carbon Efficiency water Eco-Management
efficiency
Individual carbon quotas labels Global EGS targets The Sustainable Self
source: re-burbia.com
Sustainability norms Embedded carbon monitoring Turn water Management by simulation Personal digital mirrors
Carbon games into a reward new designs
Legal rights for nature for suburbs High-def self-simulation
shift local and global system. What can
I do today: Eco-happiness
priorities away from
source: Team with food, ag,
can epa.gov/watersense
and retail companies
What day:
waterfootprint.org
source:

productivity and wealth,


t o
Id o to reorganize by
toward happiness and What the foodsheds.
Playtest kids will say:
on-
in carb
creative participation. Invest le the water a global “My great-
b
What the sustaina opment. footprint constitutional grandmother
e l
kids will say: redev network convention. built a sustainabl
e
food industry.”
“My great-grand-
father made New Feral Cities
Orleans wealthy.” De-Legitimization
Agricultural urban development
Worldwide loan defaults
Slum mapping Identity Hacking
Collapse of Bretton Woods institutions
new Pro-poor movements
COLLAPSE: Identity defense
Lost Opportunity financial End of globalization era
Local Disasters, models Neural fingerprinting
More climate disasters for water
Regional Conflicts Memory erasure
Volatile energy, food, and materials prices

source: detroitagriculture.org
Somali
No carbon credit wealth pirates or
River Basins Somali coast
Local and regional in Trouble guard?

failures threaten the Crop migration employee ID


management Create
source: africa-adapt.net

Water famines in the cloud low-cost diets


stability of the world, climate urban
change Militarization of water security community that enhance
dislocate populations, and response- source:
gardening biochemical
networks U.S. Navy in Wikimedia Commons networks happiness.
de-legitimize institutions.

sampling
source: bmt.org

source: Fowler & Christakis, bmj.com


the ocean
for genetic
materials

pollution
detecting Analyze Biomimetic Cities viral
underwater
the impacts of Radical architecture
happiness
robot
policy at the networks
molecular scale.
neuro-
Carbon Down-Scaling source: camera.calit2.net source: Kenneth Lee
targeted
Ultra-efficient materials
TRANSFORMATION: political Growing surfaces
Lightweight innovation
messaging
Superstructed Molecular waste conversion Oceans of Invention
Systems Molecular manufacturing Neuro-Social
Undersea mapping
slum
Identities
Ocean robotics Globally Local network
Neurological theories of the self
Buoyed by falling costs Open ocean IP Governance mapping in
India Viral emotional networking
of coordination, Participatory governance experiments Neuro-social environments
What the
kids will say: Wha
t
Non-geographic representation
organizational innovations I do can
toda
y: Neuro-social politics
“My great-
focus on rapid adaptation Build
grandad saved the “
source: instructables.com
to pat fish robots” Create a
to extreme environments. coral reefs.” r
reef p ol against Turn a city #happiness
citizen
arasit into a futures hashtag for
environmental es. source: changemakers.com
science gameboard. Twitter.
networks